cgy it decisions june 2011
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at IT Decisions Conference on Scenario Planning and ITTRANSCRIPT
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting, St Andrews Management Institute
04/08/2023 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1
Scenario PlanningAnd
IT Decision Making
Dr Chris [email protected]
IT Decisions ConferenceJune 2011
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI
• Our offer– To enhance the capability to anticipate – To transform emergent thinking into strategy and
implementation– Consulting, executive education and research to deliver
“robust decisions in uncertain times”
• “You can never plan the future by the past”– Edmund Burke, 1729-1797
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Robust decisions in uncertain times• Formed in 1989
– Until 1999 based at St Andrews University– Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows– Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society
• People:– 8 Fellows, – Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, – Consult, teach & write on business, policy, strategy and futures, leadership;
– 7 Principals, – Senior experience in major organisations, public and private sectors,– Experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and organisational
development
– Also 46 Associates with specialist expertise eg – Sectors: oil & gas, ICT, FS, construction, government, health, NGOs– Functional specialists: innovation, creative spaces, audio-visual
communication, occupational psychology, reconfiguration -----
Who we are
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Futures Thinking
• Contingency planning• Scenarios• Systems thinking• Complexity theory• Ethnographic Futures
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Imagine 2011 in 1981
• Technology– WWW– Mobile Phones– iPOD/PAD/Phone– DAB– DTT,HDTV,3DTV– Wii,Xbox360,PS3– BUT AI?, VideoConf?,
Concorde 2,Bullet trains, FTTH,Flying cars…
• What about– Chelsea FC owned by
a Russian– BRICs– Global Terrorism– Climate Change– Bollywood– HIV/AIDS
Robust decisions in uncertain times
My Experience over 30 years
• 20% will happen as consensus• 15% will happen but slower than
consensus• 5% will happen faster than consensus• 15% will be superceded before it happens• 10% stalls/disappoints• 20% just doesn’t happen• 15% is off Radar
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons
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Repeating Problems
• Standards Wars• WIIFM• Infrastructure lags• Long-term capacity developments
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What type of future?
• Desired ( my plan)• Desirable ( Plan B)• Plausible ( time to rethink?)• Consensus ( my contrarian plan)• Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there)
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Beware…
• Modern Myths• This time it’s different…• Putting New in front of everything..• Everything has a history• Revolution or cohort effects• Roadblocks (IPv6?)
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Unpicking Assumptions
“The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0.
The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits”
A Social Media guru
• While at the same time...• Predicted 100%
compound growth for 5 years
• All existing services would still be there and free
• Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years
• Governments wouldn’t regulate...
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Robust decisions in uncertain times1066 and All That
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Cavaliers
RoundheadsRight
Wrong
Repulsive Romantic
Robust decisions in uncertain timesThe Futurists Dilemma
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BroadVision
?FocussedTheme
HighCredibility
Low Credibility
Wrong Right
Robust decisions in uncertain timesDimensions of the Current Challenge
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EconomicChange
Strategic Response
cyclical
structural
Reactive Proactive
Market Step Change
Sitting Tight Mopping up
Niche Portfolio
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Dynamics of the Current Challenge
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EconomicChange
Strategic Response
cyclical
structural
Reactive Proactive
Market Step Change
Sitting Tight Mopping up
Niche Portfolio
New Entrant
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Problem Types
Do we know whereWe are going?
Do we knowHow to getThere?
NO YES
NO
YES
TASK:OperationalManagement
TASK:DirectionSetting
TASK:ProcessDevelopment
TASK:ConceptCreation
After Eddie Obeng
Best practice
Next practice Emerging practice
Scaling practice
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Robust decisions in uncertain times Whose Problem?
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Low
Low
High
HighUncertainty
Com
plex
ity
Academic/Expert
Consultant
PoliticalSystem
Wisdom ofThe Crowds
ThinkTank
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
What value?
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Low
Low
High
HighUncertainty
Com
plex
ity
Academic/Expert
Consultant
PoliticalSystem
Wisdom ofThe Crowds
ThinkTank
IdeasTrack record
Knowledge
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Robust decisions in uncertain times During Step Change?
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Low
Low
High
HighUncertainty
Com
plex
ity
Academic/Expert
Consultant
PoliticalSystem
Wisdom ofThe Crowds
ThinkTank
Consultancy squeezed as limited track record
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Timing
“In the Future blind People willBe able to drive cars”
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Results
• Probability 0.9 with some 0.2• Today with Resources: 1-3 years• In practice: 3-10 years• In reality: 10-100 years
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Why do we get it wrong?
• Today!!!• Prisoners of Language• Timing• Unintended consequences• Sources of Innovation• Ask the wrong question/people?• Culture• Events
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Not understanding today…
• Societies taboos• Bubbles• Poor data for emerging trends• Examples
– Police– Paedophiles– Education– International/global interconnectivity
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Timing
• Inevitability-Predictability• Risk and uncertainty• Unforseen barriers• Social factors• Long-term skill developments
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Sources of Innovation
Manufacturer Active Process
User Active process
Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Innovation
• Open Innovation has a 200 year history• Innovation with lead users preceded the
internet• Professional solve their own problems• Big shift in computing is that consumers
not industry in the driving seat.
Robust decisions in uncertain times
A Rose by any other name..
• Bouba• Kiki
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Learning from the edge:Synesthesia
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Prisoners of Language
• 1,000,000 cars• People will always want shoes• Classroom of the Future• Library with no books• 5 Computers
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Who do you ask?
“ What do you teach a child at 5 years oldSo that they will be IT Literate at 20?
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Core to the problem..
• The different disciplines involved• The hardware doesn’t exist• The software hasn’t been written• Some of the key companies haven’t yet been
formed
So who do you ask?
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Organisational culture
• Specialists and generalists• Personal credibility• Tolerance of uncertainty• Story telling• Leadership
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Events
• 9/11• BSE• Coalition Government• Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......
• BLACK SWANS
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Uncertainties Today
• Web 2.0 bubble?• IPv4 to IPv6 transition• Sustainability of
Free/Freemium..• Impact of Regulation, e.g.
EU• Privacy, security• Business models?• Interdependencies...
• IPR regimes• Everything has a
history...?• Demographics....• Energy Security• Public/Private Clouds
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Overoptimism or hype?
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Hofstadter’s Law
It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
THANK YOU!
Any Questions?
My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20
Twitter: @chris_yapp
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