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Managing water resources under a changingclimate

Background paper for World Bank Report:

Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries

Authorship

Lead Author:Hamed AssafAmerican University Beirut

Contributing Authors:

Raoudha GafrejUniversity of Tunis

A working outline of thi s paper can be found in Annex 2

Disclaimer

This text is not for citation. The statements, views, interpretations and findingsexpressed in this draft and in all contents herein are entirely those of the authors. They

do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or

the countries they represent.


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Managing water resources under a changing climate NOT FOR CITATION

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction and background ................................................................................................................ 5

1.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 5

1.2. Overview of the socio-economic, land and water resources conditions in the Arab region..... 7

2. Projected impacts of climate change on water resources in the Arab region...................................... 11

2.1. Brief overview of the regions climate and water resources................................................... 11

2.2. Projected impacts of climate change on hydrometeorological conditions.............................. 13

3. Main challenges to managing water resources under changing climate............................................. 20

3.1. Scarcity, high variability and uneven distribution of water resources.................................... 21

3.2. Population growth and urbanization ....................................................................................... 26

3.3. High agricultural water use ..................................................................................................... 27

3.4. Depletion of strategic groundwater reserves........................................................................... 28

3.5. High dependency on shared water resources .......................................................................... 29

3.6. Increasing loss of life and damages from extreme flooding events........................................ 31

3.7. Deteriorating water quality conditions.................................................................................... 32

3.8. Loss of water ecosystem services ........................................................................................... 32

3.9. Water governance ................................................................................................................... 33

3.10. Weak information base and inadequate research and development capacity..................... 33

3.11. public awareness of water and climate change issues......................................................... 33

4. Adaptation options .............................................................................................................................. 34

4.1. Integrated water resources management ................................................................................. 36

4.2. Supply side management ........................................................................................................ 37

4.2.1. Storage and conveyance ...................................................................................................... 37

4.2.2. Integrated surface and groundwater storage strategy.......................................................... 38

4.2.3. Management of groundwater resources .............................................................................. 39

4.2.4. Protection of water resources .............................................................................................. 40

4.2.5. Wastewater treatment and reuse.......................................................................................... 41

4.2.6. Desalination ........................................................................................................................ 43


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4.3. Demand side Management ...................................................................................................... 45

4.3.1. Water pricing....................................................................................................................... 46

4.3.2. Reducing unaccounted for water in distribution network................................................... 48

4.3.3. Water reallocation ............................................................................................................... 49

4.3.4. Water trading /markets ........................................................................................................ 49

4.3.5. Raising public awareness .................................................................................................... 50

4.4. Other adaptation issues in the water sector............................................................................. 50

4.4.1. Water governance ............................................................................................................... 50

4.4.2. Disaster risk management ................................................................................................... 51

4.4.3. Cooperative management of shared water resources.......................................................... 53

4.5. Adaptation in non-water sectors.............................................................................................. 54

4.5.1. Agricultural policies ............................................................................................................ 55

4.5.2. Energy pricing policies ....................................................................................................... 56

4.5.3. Food security policies ......................................................................................................... 57

4.5.4. Regional economic integration ........................................................................................... 58

5. Policy Options and key messages ....................................................................................................... 59

5.1. Uphold the IWRM principles.................................................................................................. 59

5.2. Integrate water management across different sectors ............................................................. 60

5.3. Develop storage and conveyance capacity.............................................................................. 60

5.4. Improve water efficiency across different sectors................................................................... 60

5.5. Diversify economy away from water intensive sectors.......................................................... 61

5.6. Reform the agricultural sector................................................................................................. 61

5.7. Improve water governance ...................................................................................................... 61

5.8. Invest in research and development, monitoring and information management.................... 61

5.9. Pursue cooperation on managing shared water resources....................................................... 62

5.10. Protect water resources and rehabilitate water ecosystem services.................................... 62

5.11. Achieve food security through diversification of options................................................... 62

5.12. Enhance regional economic integration.............................................................................. 63

6. Boxes................................................................................................................................................... 63

6.1. Is water substitutable? ............................................................................................................. 63

6.2. Consuming vs. using water ..................................................................................................... 64

6.3. A caveat: improving irrigation efficiency may intensify water scarcity................................. 65


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6.4. Water marginal cost curves ..................................................................................................... 65

7. References ........................................................................................................................................... 72

8. Annex .................................................................................................................................................. 78

8.1. Annex 1: Glossary of Terms ................................................................................................... 78

Adaptation ........................................................................................................................................... 78

IWRM ................................................................................................................................................. 78

Risk ..................................................................................................................................................... 78

Water Management ............................................................................................................................. 78

8.2. Annex 2: Preliminary outline of Chapter................................................................................ 79

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Aridity Zoning - Source (World Bank (2007))............................................................................ 13

Figure 2. Annual mean changes in hydrometeorological variables for the period 20802099 relative to

19801999 based on simulation results from 15 GCMs for the GHG emissions scenario A1B. Stippled

areas indicate those where at least 80% of the GCMs agree in the direction of change (source: Bates et al.

2008.) .......................................................................................................................................................... 14

Figure 3. Global projections of precipitation intensity and dry days (annual maximum number of

consecutive dry days) (Source: Bates et al. 2008) ...................................................................................... 15

Figure 4. Current and projected water demands and supplies for selected Arab countries as estimated by

World Bank (2011). .................................................................................................................................... 17Figure 5. Current and projected water demands and supplies for selected Arab countries as estimated by

World Bank (2011). .................................................................................................................................... 18

Figure 6. Current and projected water demands and supplies for selected Arab countries as estimated by

World Bank (2011). .................................................................................................................................... 19

Figure 7. Characteristics of precipitation worldwide. (source: World Bank (2007)).................................. 22

Figure 8. Yearly inflows to Lake Qaraoun, Lebanon (source: Assaf and Saadeh (2008))......................... 23

Figure 9. Components of the full cost of water (source: Agarwal et al. (2000))........................................ 47

Figure 10. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011))............ 67


Figure 12. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011))............ 69Figure 13. Water marginal cost curves for selected Arab countries (source: World Bank (2011))............ 70



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1.INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1Section summary:This section sets the stage by discussing the unique situation of the Arab2

region not only as currently the globally most water deficient but also where water supplies 3

dwindling as a result of climatic changes, deterioration in quality and competition from4

upstream countriesare lacking in meeting growing demand fueled by explosive growth in5

population, consumption per capita and irrigation requirements.6

1.1.INTRODUCTION7Water, particularly its scarcity, has been a central issue in the MENA region since the dawn of8

civilization. In fact, many anthropologists believe that human civilization first emerged in this9

part of the world as an adaptation to the regions desiccation which started at the onset of the10

Holocene few thousand years ago. Faced with long rainless summers and short rainy winters11

early inhabitants sought to settle near perennial springs (e.g. in Damascus and Jericho) where12

they could secure a steady supply of food and shelter by domesticating plants and animals -13

which heralded the agricultural revolution. As small settlements amalgamated into larger towns,14

new empires sought to regulate and secure access of water for their subjects. Across the region,15

remnants of great water infrastructure are a testimony to human ingenuity and capacity to adapt16

to harsh natural conditions characterized by severe droughts and marked seasonality.17

In modern times, many Arab countries pursued expansive socio-economic development policies18

that relied heavily on developing their limited water resources. Over the past few decades most19

of the main water resources in the majority of Arab countries have been fully utilized. The region20

has the highest storage capacity per m3worldwide (World Bank (2007)). Despite this significant21

investment in water infrastructure, water supplies have failed to keep pace with the exponential22

growth of demand fueled by dramatic growth in population and improving living standards.23

Allan (1997) argued that most Arab countries has run out of water in 1970s to produce their food24

and relied on the global food market to meet the shortfall in food requirements. In many Arab25

countries, the widening gap between supply and demand has been bridged unsustainably by26


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example, despite extreme water scarcity, the Gulf counties have managed to develop adequate57

water supplies and servicesalbeit unsustainably - largely due to their wealth and access to58

seawater for desalination. Whereas least developing countries such as Sudan with relatively59

ample water resources are suffering from frequent and widespread water shortages and are60

highly vulnerable not only to droughts but to flooding. The nature of water scarcity and how it61

interacts with socio-economic development is an important factor in drafting policies and62

strategies to address water scarcity. Countries with high dependency on agriculture require a63

different of set of solution to those which are highly urbanized or more industrialized.64

This chapter addresses how Arab countries can respond to the impending impacts of climate65

change on their water resources and consequently on the overall socio-economic development.66

We adopt an adaptation framework hinged on three main elements. We first start by identifying67

the main challenges, and opportunities, that arise from the current water resources conditions and68

those projected to prevail under the impact of climate change. We then present a wide range of69

alternative solutions and measures to address these challenges with emphasis on how Arab70

countries are already responding to these challenges. The proposed solutions utilize recent state71

of the knowledge and practice in water resources management and climate change adaptation,72

and leverage existing regional experience and knowledge. We lastly present a set of policy73

options based on explored adaptation options. A central theme in this adaption framework is the74

emphasis on the uniqueness of water, socio-economic and environmental conditions of each75

Arab country and the necessity of taking this into consideration when designing adaptation76

policies.77

1.2.OVERVIEW OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC, LAND AND WATER78RESOURCES CONDITIONS IN THE ARAB REGION79

To set the stage for discussing challenges and potential water climate change adaptation80solutions and strategies, it is necessary to provide an overview of the various socio-economic,81

and water resources conditions in the region. Several variables and indicators representing these82

conditions are presented in Table 1, Table 2 and Table 3 which will be referred to throughout the83

chapter. The information is mostly extracted from the FAO Aquastat database (AQUASTAT84

2011) and are dated 2008 unless otherwise noted.85


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Arab countries vary in their financial, demographic and water resources conditions. Yet, all Arab86

countries are experiencing high growth in population driving most of these countries below the87

water poverty levels. The least developing countriesMauritania, Sudan, Yemen, Comoros,88

Djibouti and Somalia - with GDP per Capita less than 2,200 $ have a significant share of their89

population engaged in agriculture. With the exception of Djibouti, agriculture contributes90

significantly to these countries GDPs. It is noteworthy that while over 75 % of the economically91

active population in Djibouti is in the agriculture sector, 87% of the population is reported as92

urban, which may indicate differences among countries on how communities are classified.93

Agriculture in Djibouti contributes less than 4% of the GPD which is much lower than other least94

developing countries. Farmers in the least developing countries are dependent on subsistence95

rainfed agriculture making them highly vulnerable to rainfall variability and droughts. Somalia is96

currently undergoing severe drought that have already caused wide spread malnutrition that may97

escalate to a mass starvation.98

Egypt, Syria and Iraq rely extensively on shared water resources. They have developed extensive99

irrigation and water supply infrastructure which support sizable farming communities. These100

countries face great risk from unilateral water supply development in upstream countries. The101

relatively large agricultural sectors in the downstream countries are particularly vulnerable102

considering their near total dependency on irrigation.103

The extremely water scarce GCC countries have opted to meet rising demand through104

desalination. Saudi Arabia total withdrawal of 23.67 BCM dwarfs its combined desalination105

capacity of 1.033 BCM and exploitable renewable water resources (2.4 BMC). The shortfall is106

met through extensive abstraction of fossil water mainly to meet irrigation demands. Libya has107

limited desalination capacity in comparison to the GCC countries. This is possibly an outcome of108

an overall strategy to reduce dependency on desalination in favor of tapping the vast Nubian109

sandstone and Western Sahara fossil aquifers via the Great Man-Made River system (Gijsbers110

and Loucks 1999).111

Few Arab countries have relatively abundant internal water resources. Lebanon and Morocco112

have benefited from favorable topography where coastal mountain ranges intercept moisture113

laden weather systems to produce heavy winter precipitation. Both countries have renewable114


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water resources hovering around 1000 m3per capita. Both countries receive virtually no water115

from outside their boundaries which reduces constraints over development of water resources.116

However Lebanon is an upstream country to several important international Rivers particularly117

Hasbani and ElAsi Rivers. An agreement has been reached on AlAsi, but the development on118

Hasbani Rivera major tributary to the Jordan River - is tightly connected to the elusive peace119

in the region.120

Jordan and to a lesser extent Tunisia face daunting water scarcity issues yet have modest121

financial resources to pursue costly water supply development strategies. Both countries have122

been at the frontier of adopting more sustainable water management options such as demand123

management, water reuse and reallocation from low value to high value water uses.124

Table 1. Socio-economic variables125

126


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Table 2. Water resources127

128

129

Table 3. Water withdrawals130

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2.PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER132RESOURCES IN THE ARAB REGION133

Section summary:This section provides an overview of the projected climate change impact on134

water resources based on current assessment studies conducted by regional and international135

researchers.136

2.1.BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONS CLIMATE AND WATER137RESOURCES138

The Arab region stretches across several time zones and extends from equatorial regions to mid139

latitudes. The bulk of the region lies within the Horse latitude characterized by its aridity as140

global climate circulations drive moisture away to the low and high latitudinal regions. These141

phenomena are responsible for the formation of the vast Sahara and Arabian deserts. Prior to142

their desiccation several thousand years ago, these deserts received substantial precipitation that143

had percolated down deep layers to form vast fossil aquifers.144

Despite its intrinsic aridity the region receives substantial runoff from neighboring regions. The145

Taurus and Zorros mountains that bound the region in the North East captures moisture from146

prevailing southwesterly winds to precipitate as snow or rainfall and flow down tributaries of the147

Euphrates and Tigris which brings water to an otherwise very arid Mesopotamia. Similarly the148

Ethiopian and Equatorial Highlands receive substantial amount of rainfall and form headwaters149

of the Nile basin, which flow thousands of kilometers south through savanna areas and barren150

deserts to arrive at the Egyptian delta. Egypt would have been a barren desert without the Nile.151

Parts of the North African and Eastern Mediterranean coasts are separated from the arid interiors152

by mountain ranges that capture the Westerlies to feed into highly seasonal streams that sustain153

sizable agriculture in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon and Syria. A similar situation exists in154

the southwest of the Arabian Peninsula (Southwestern Saudi Arabia and Yemen) where high155

mountains provide relatively humid conditions. The rest of Arabia especially along the Gulf156

coast is virtually rainless where very arid conditions persist. Deep in the Sahara and Arabian157


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Deserts several oases spring out creating microclimatic conditions where limited agriculture158

could be practiced.159

Although the aridity of the region is primarily driven by low precipitation levels, high160

evapotranspiration rates greatly reduce the amount of water that turn into surface runoff or161

percolate through the soil to recharge aquifers. For example it is estimated that in Jordan over162

90% of the rain evaporates leaving a fraction to recharge aquifers and feed surface runoff163

(ESCWA 2005).164

The above portrays a region that is generally low in water resources yet at varying degress across165

the region. The relatively more reliable runoff in the major rivers has allowed more stable166

agriculture and settlement. Regions with less reliable resource relied on rainfed agriculture which167

is highly vulnerable to climatic changes. The more arid regions were only capable of sustaining168

pastoralists who are acutely vulnerable to climatic variability.169

170


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Figure 1. Aridity Zoning - Source (World Bank (2007)).171

2.2.PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON172HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS173

Projections of climate change impacts are determined based on simulations by highly174

sophisticated computer programs named general circulation models (GCMs). The GCMs are175

designed to model the global climate and determine how it may change under potential scenarios176

of green house gas emissions. Due to their coarse spatial resolution and inability to capture low177

order processes such as cloud formation and the effect of sharp topographic variations the GCMs178

are only suitable to assess the general characteristics of potential changes. The performance of179

GCMs can be improved using downscaling to better represent regional and local conditions.180

Downscaling can be either statistical based on meteorological ground measurements or dynamic181

based on regional climate models that uses outputs from GCMs to provide more detailed182

atmospheric simulation for specific regions.183

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indentifies the North Africa and184

Eastern Mediterranean (MENA) region as the most severely impacted by climate change in185

terms of accentuation of an already severe water scarcity (Parry et al. 2007). Most GCMs project186

that the MENA region will undergo significant reduction in precipitation levels and increases in187temperatures that will increase evapotranspiration rates. The net effect would be a severe188

reduction in river runoffs and soil moisture levels as shown inFigure 2.The figure shows189

changes in annual means of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and evaporation between the190

periods 2080-2099 and 1980-1999 as projected by 15 of the most advanced GCMs (Bates et al.191

2008). These simulations were run for the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) midway192

A1B GHG emission storyline. What makes these results quite significant is that 80% of the193

GCMs agree on the direction of the change in the region. Changes in precipitation intensity and194

dry daysmeasured by the maximum number of consecutive dry daysfor the periods 2080-195

2099 and 1980-1999 are shown inFigure 3.196


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197

Figure 2. Annual mean changes in hydrometeorological variables for the period 20802099 relative to 19801999198

based on simulation results from 15 GCMs for the GHG emissions scenario A1B. Stippled areas indicate those199

where at least 80% of the GCMs agree in the direction of change (source: Bates et al. 2008.)200


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Precipitation intensity Dry days

Figure 3. Global projections of precipitation intensity and dry days (annual maximum number of consecutive dry201

days) (Source: Bates et al. 2008)202

Climate changes projections clearly show stark differences in the impacts across the region.203

While runoff in North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean including the headwaters of the204

Euphrates and Tigris are expected to drop by up to 50%, southern Arabia and East Africa205

including the headwaters of the Nile will experience increases in runoff by up to 50%.206

Consequently, climate change will reduce water supplies in the northern and western parts of the207

Arab region and increase those of Egypt and the southern part of the Arab world.208

The World Bank is finalizing a study to assess the impact of climate change on water resources209

in the MENA region and identify options to manage these resources under future conditions of210

higher water demands (World Bank 2011). The study involves first assessing potential211

spatiotemporal distributions of surface and groundwater resources in the region over the next 4212

decades based on output from 9 GCMS for the A1B SRES scenario. This was conducted through213

downscaling output from these GCMs onto a 10kmx10km grid covering the Arab region and the214

headwater areas of the Tigris/Euphrates and Niles Rivers. A distributed hydrological model,215

PCR-GLOBWB, processed the downscaled GCM output and reference data to simulate runoff,216

groundwater and soil moisture taking into account vegetation cover. Scenarios from the217hydrological model were then run through a water resources planning model, WEAP, to218

determine corresponding scenarios of water municipal, industrial and agricultural demands. To219

assess the economic efficiency of alternative adaptation options, marginal cost curves of water220

resources development were calculated for each country as presented in a later section.221


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230

Figure 4. Current and projected water demands and supplies for selected Arab countries as estimated by World Bank231

(2011).232


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233


(2011).235


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236


(2011).238

Evans (2009) analyzed the impact of climate change on an area covering the Levant, Northern239

Arabia, Turkey and Iran using simulation results from 18 GCMs under the SRES A2 emissions240

scenarios which represents a high emission pathway. His analysis shows that most of the region,241

particularly its northern part in Turkey, will become warmer and undergo significant reduction in242


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precipitations. The 200 mm isohyeta threshold of viable rainfed agriculturewill move243

northward as climate warm. By mid century, 8,500 km2of rainfed agricultural land will be lost.244

By end of century, the 200 mm isohyet is projected to move northward by about 75 km resulting245

in the loss of 170,000 km2of rainfed agricultural land over an area covering Palestine, Lebanon,246

Syria, Iraq and Iran. Evans has also indicated that the dry season will grow longer by about 2247

months reducing the grazing rangelands in Iraq and Syria and necessitating the reduction of herd248

sizes or increasing water requirements and imports of feedstuff.249

3.MAIN CHALLEN GES TO MA NAGING WATER RES OURCES250UNDER CHANGI NG CLIMATE251

Section summary:This section discusses the main challenges facing the Arab countries in252

managing their water resources and how these challenges could be exacerbated by climatic253

changes.254

Water is a key ingredient in the socio-economic development of any nation. This is particularly255

true in the Arab region, where a multitude of issues seriously challenge and threatens socio-256

economic development and growth potential. Scarcity, high variability and uneven distribution257

of water resources in the region are severe natural constraints to meeting the high and258

exponentially growing demand fueled not only by booming domestic and industrial sectors, but259

also by an agriculture sector which uses over 80% of the total water withdrawals. Agriculture is260

not only the single largest employer in many Arab countries (seeTable 1), but it also produces a261

significant share of food requirements. To manage growing deficits in water balance, many262

countries have unsustainably tapped freshwater aquifers and seriously depleted strategic fossil263

water stocks. Pressure has also been mounting from upstream countries which have started to264

develop water resources that for millennia sustained life in the more populace regions of the265

Arab region. Rapid population growth, urbanization and industrialization have contributed to266

major pollution of vital water resources including major streams and strategic aquifers. Risk of267

flooding has also increased recently due to increased frequency and intensity of extreme events,268


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poor urban planning and inadequate preparedness. Water governance is a major area of concern269

due to lack of accountability and weak institutional capacity. This section discusses these270

challenges and how they could be exacerbated under changing climatic conditions.271

3.1.SCARCITY, HIGH VARIABILITY AND UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION272OF WATER RESOURCES273

Water resources management aims at securing supplies to meet demands. This task requires274

matching demand not only in quantity and quality, but also in location and timing. Water275

demand in the Arab region is already surpassing supply and rising rapidly, is generally276

concentrated in large urban areas, and in the case of agriculture is mostly required during the277

drier time of the year. In contrast water resources are scarce, highly variable, unevenly278

distributed and seasonally out of phase with demand. The scale and nature of these challenges279

and the how they will be influenced by climate change vary considerably across the region.280

As discussed earlier, the Arab region is characterized by a lopsided topographical and climatic281

conditions with the bulk of the region being very arid flanked by more humid mountainous and282

coastal plains. Consequently, precipitation levels are mostly low yet highly variable in time and283

location. Based on calculations made by the World Bank (2007) the region stands out as the one284

with exceptionally unfavorable precipitation conditions of low intensity and high variability. The285

results of these calculations are shown inFigure 7,with the horizontal axis representing the286

1961-90 normalized average of precipitation and the vertical axis depicting the corresponding287

normalized variability index. The majority of the Arab countries are concentrated in the upper288

left quadrant indicating that they have the least favorable combination of lowest level of289

precipitation and highest level of variability among the 289 countries included in the study.290


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291

Figure 7. Characteristics of precipitation worldwide. (source: World Bank (2007))292

The ramifications of these conditions vary across the region. In countries where water resources293

are derived from precipitations with levels higher than the regional average, water supplies are294

sizable yet highly variable and susceptible to frequent droughts. Most of these countries are295

situated in North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) and Eastern Mediterranean (Lebanon,296

Palestine, Jordan and the Syrian coast), where precipitation levels were historically adequate to297

support demand. These countries are facing serious challenges in meeting current demand given298

high variability of water resources. For example, yearly inflows to Qaraoun Lake which drains299

the Litani River - the largest and most significant water resource in Lebanon - display extreme300

variability with maximum flow more than order of magnitude higher than minimum flow (see301

Figure 8). The great fluctuations in runoff across North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean are302

strongly linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) global teleconnection pattern which303

dominates the climate of the region. A stronger NAO anomaly shifts the moisture bearing304

Westerlies wind system to the North depriving the region of substantial amount of rainfall, and305

vice versa. This association has been linked to the devastating droughts in the region in the mid306


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1980s to 1990s. During this period, dams in Morocco did not fill beyond half of their maximum307

capacity (World Bank 2007). Climate change is expected to strengthen NAO and consequently308

increase the frequency of lower precipitations (Cullen et al. 2002).309

310

Figure 8. Yearly inflows to Lake Qaraoun, Lebanon (source: Assaf and Saadeh (2008)).311

Water resources in the riparian countries of Egypt, Iraq and Syria are mainly derived from very312

large catchments in the more humid regions to the south and north of the Arab region. These313

regions have significant precipitation with more consistent patterns. For example, Turkey the314

main headwater of Euphrates and Tigris has much higher precipitation and less variability than315

neighboring Arab countries as indicated inFigure 7.A similar situation exists in the Nile Basin,316

where the Nile River is fed by the Monsoon dominated Ethiopian highlands and the equatorial317Lake Victoria. The discharge from the Ethiopian Highlands peaks at a different periodJuly to318

Septemberthan runoff from Lake Victoria which has two peak periods a long one in March to319

May and a less intense one from October to December (Conway 2005). These out-of-phase320

patterns have to a large extent stabilized runoff patterns on a short-term basis. Prior to the321

construction of Aswan High dam, Egypt however was exposed to several devastating flooding322


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events and droughts. The dam has drastically reduced multi-year fluctuations, but was drawn323

down to alarmingly low levels as a severe drought extendedunprecedented in record - over the324

years 1978-1987. The drought was mainly attributed to a drastic reduction in precipitation over325

the Ethiopian Highlands associated with an El Nio event (Conway 2005).326

Seasonal and multi-year variability have been managed on the Nile, Euphrates and Tigris327

through extensive development of storage and conveyance. However, more pressing issues are328

related to sharing water resources and management of multi-decadal droughts, which will be329

addressed in a later section. Climate change is projected to have different, and almost opposite,330

impacts on the Nile and Euphrates-Tigris basins. The former is mainly influenced by the331

Monsoon system which will gain strength in a warmer world. The precipitation over the latter are332

highly influenced by the NAO which will lead to drier conditions as a result of climate change333

(Cullen and deMenocal, 2000) similar to the situation in North Africa and the southern part of334

Eastern Mediterranean.335

In the more extreme arid regions in the Gulf countries and Libya precipitation levels are very low336

and extremely variable. The extreme water scarcity in these countries has until modern times337

suppressed growth in population and limited human activities to pastoralism and subsistence338

agriculture in oasis and coastal regions with access to springs. However, the discovery of oil339

resources has resulted in dramatic increases in population and water demands which have340dramatically outstripped those supplied by natural renewable resources. This sharp water341

imbalance was managed through desalination in most countries with excessive reliance on fossil342

water in Saudi Arabia and Libya. Climate change is not expected to greatly impact the natural343

water balance in these countries. It is however expected to increase the intensity and frequency344

of extreme rainfall outbursts that could create extensive damage and loss of life similar to those345

experienced recently in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia (Assaf 2010).346

The southern part of the Arabian Peninsula is however more humid than its northern and middle347

counterparts. In Yemen, relatively more abundant natural water supplies in the order of 2.1 km3348

per year (Table 2)have however been outstripped by a relatively large population that is growing349

at one of the highest global rates reaching 23 million people in 2008 (Table 1). In comparison,350

Yemens eastern neighbor, Oman, with 1.4 km3per year of renewable water resources is in much351


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better water balance conditions given its much smaller population of only 2.8 millions. Being in352

the domain of the Monsoon system, the southern part of Arabia is expected to receive more353

precipitation as global climate continues to warm. This however is projected to be in the form of354

more severe rainfall events similar to those that have hit Oman recently.355

Water scarcity and variability will possibly be more felt, particularly in human suffering, hunger356

and potentially famine, in the least developing Arab countries that include Mauritania, Sudan,357

Somalia, Comoros, Djibouti and Yemen where most of the economically active population are358

engaged in agriculture (seeTable 1). Many are dependent on pastoralism and subsistence rainfed359

farming making them highly vulnerable to rainfall variability. The recent and ongoing drought in360

Eastern Africa has taken a great toll on the rural populations who not only suffer from loss of361

income and livestock, but also chronic hunger that could develop into wide scale famine.362

Droughts have also greatly impacted other Arab countries particularly Syria and Algeria, where363

rainfed agriculture is widely prevalent. In Syria, the wheat-producing North East was ravaged by364

a three year drought that has completely drained the Khabur River. Although farmers initially365

adapted by tapping shallow aquifers, the continuation of the drought had led them to366

significantly draw down groundwater levels. Shortly afterwards farmers in the hundreds of367

thousands had to abandon their villages looking for livelihood in the main interior cities and in368

neighboring Arab countries.369

As climate continues to change, precipitation and consequently droughts and floods are expected370

to change in their frequency, intensity and distribution. This change in pattern violates the371

hypothesis of stationaritywhere statistical characteristics are assumed fixed - which water372

planners and mangers apply conveniently in the design and operation of water resources systems.373

This changing hydrological variability has already resulted in substantial overdesign of and374

subsequent losses in productivity and efficiency of a large number of water infrastructures in375

North Africa (World Bank 2007). A recent policy document in the US has identified376

hydrological nonstationarity as a great challenge to water resources planners in the US (Brekke377

et al. 2009).378


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3.2.POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION379One of the pressing challenges to socio-economic development in the Arab region is the rapid380

growth in population and great improvement in living standards that have strained resources381

particularly water resources. Although fertility rates have subsided over the past two decades382

(Dyer 2008), the populations in some countries particularly the least developing ones are still383

expanding at one of the highest rates in the world. These dramatic increases in population have384

driven renewable water resources per capita well below the absolute water scarcity level of 500385

m3/capita in most Arab countries; with only few countries above the chronic water scarcity level386

of 1000 m3/capita (seeTable 2). This has been compounded by an increased consumption per387

capita driven by improved living standards. This water imbalance is expected to deteriorate388

further by climate change induced decline in natural water supplies. The growth in population389

has also increased requirement for food and water intense commodities driving further the need390

for more water supplies in the agricultural and industrial sectors.391

A major concern in water management around the region is the rapid urban sprawl particularly in392

areas away from water supply sources. This growth is a consequence of natural growth and an393

on-going urbanization process as rural population continues to abandon farming in search of394

better life in cities and due to the difficulty in maintaining viable agriculture as water resources395

become scarcer. Climate change is expected to accelerate this process as a result of its negative396

impact on water supplies and indirectly as adaption measures will likely lead to further reduction397

in agricultural activities. The challenge presented by this on-going redistribution of population is398

to secure water supplies and provision of water services. In Lebanon for example, coastal cities -399

particularly the capital Beirut where half the population live - water shortages are very frequent400

as local supplies are incapable of meeting the rising demand. Lacking access to adequate water401

services, people often tap illegally shallow aquifers resulting in serious sea water intrusion. In an402

attempt to reduce pressure on the heavily populated Cairo, government has encouraged urban403

development in desert areas which have presented serious challenges to procure water supplies404

over large distances. In Jordan the population is increasingly concentrated in the highlands405

several hundred meters above most prospective water resources.406


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Urban sprawl in several Arab cities has brought increasing numbers of people and economic407

assets in the harm way of extreme flooding events that seem to increase in frequency and408

intensity. This issue is discussed in a later section that addresses more broadly the rising number409

of flood disasters in the Arab region.410

3.3.HIGH AGRICULTURAL WATER USE411High evapotranspiration rates in the arid Arab region reduce soil moisture contentgreen water412

and consequently increase irrigation requirements that typically surpass 80% of the total water413

withdrawals. In comparison agriculture in the more humid and cool regions have minimal414

irrigation requirements. Also a large percentage of water used in agriculture is lost to415

evapotranspiration and consequently can not be reused. In comparison most of the water is used416in the domestic and some industrial sectors is returned in the form of wastewater that can be417

treated and further reused (see Box6.2 for discussion on consumption vs. use of water). Despite418

its high water consumption, agriculture has a low added value and contributes few fractions of a419

percent to the total Gross Domestic Product in most Arab countries. It however employs a large420

share of the total labor force especially in the least developing countries (Table 1). Agriculture421

still contributes significantly to the total food requirements and is considered an important422

component of the food security strategies of some Arab countries.423

Due to the projected increase in temperature and length of dry periods that will accompany424

climatic changes, evapotranspiration rates are expected to increase and consequently increase425

irrigation requirements. This however may be abated by the reduction in evapotranspiration due426

to the effect of higher CO2levels. However, this CO2effect is still being investigated and no427

conclusive results have yet been verified. Overall, the net impact of global warming is expected428

to increase irrigation requirements. Evans (2009) has found that the lengthening of the dry429

periods will reduce the area available for pastoralism and may as a result increase the need for430

irrigated fodder to maintain the same level of livestock.431

Due to increased competition from high value uses in the industrial and urban sectors,432

agricultural water use should be addressed within an integrated national socio-economic433

development strategy that involves other sectors. This is particularly important given that434


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agriculture is the largest employer in many Arab countries and contributes significantly, yet435

decreasingly, to meeting food requirements. An integrated approach is required which coordinate436

efforts in all sectors. In general and considering the low return of agriculture particularly under437

the increasing cost of water scarcity, many agricultural workers are already abandoning the438

sector and migrate to urban areas. Although several policy makers and researchers perceive this439

phenomenon as a negative one, it may represent a healthy adaptation to changing conditions.440

Countries should support these workers in managing through this difficult transition by offering441

social and financial support, education and vocal training.442

3.4.DEPLETION OF STRATEGIC GROUNDWATER RESERVES443In an attempt to meet rising demand, many Arab countries resorted to mining their groundwater444reserves. Over several decades, roughly from the 1960s to the 1990s, these measures have drawn445

down levels in many aquifers by tens of meters rendering them economically unusable and in446

several cases aquifers were irreversibly damaged by salinisation from rising underlying saline447

waters or by seawater intrusion in coastal areas. This period also witnessed attempts by several448

Arab countries to achieve food sufficiency at the expense of depleting vast nonrenewable fossil449

aquifers which were filled several millennia ago during more humid periods. In Saudi Arabia, it450

is estimated that over 50% of fossil water was used to produce wheat that could have been451

bought in the global market at much lower costs. The opportunity cost of these lost water452

resources is enormous considering that Riyadh, the capital and largest city in the country, is453

mostly supplied with water desalinated on the Gulf coast and pumped 600 meters over 450 kms454

at a cost of about $1.5 per m3(Allan 2007).455

Some socio-economic development policies had a detrimental impact on strategic aquifers. For456

example, the earlier policies to settle nomads in the Northern Badia in Jordan gave unlimited457

access to underlying renewable aquifer which gets recharged from winter precipitation. Over a458

period of two decades water tables declined by several meters and water became too saline for459

use in agriculture. Poor groundwater licensing and water pricing and energy subsidies460

encouraged famers to unsustainably mine aquifers. The net effect of these policies is that farmers461

did not appreciate the social opportunity cost of water. Consequently high quality water was used462


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to grow low values crops, while domestic users nearby in Amman were willing to pay very high463

prices for water (Chebaane et al. 2004).464

Climate change is expected to reduce recharge to groundwater. Lower precipitation levels and465

higher evaporation rates will decrease recharge to aquifers. Options to reduce evapotranspiration466

losses and optimize recharge of aquifers during the rainy season will be discussed later.467

Although the opportunity cost of water stored in aquifers is relatively well understood, a less468

obvious and as important value is the opportunity cost of storage, which is exemplified in the469

current estimate of cost required to develop a strategic reserve in the UAE for desalinated water.470

Along the Gulf, water storage is very low ranging from one day to 5 days at best (Dawoud 2009).471

This places these countries at the mercy of interruptions in desalination even for very short472

periods.473

3.5.HIGH DEPENDENCY ON SHARED WATER RESOURCES474It is widely recognized that the watersheddefined as the area that drains to a common main475

stream - is the most ideal level for managing water resources. Integrated watershed management476

facilitates optimal and balanced allocation of water resources among all the watershed477

inhabitants and ecosystems. The same applies to managing aquifer systems. However, such478

approach faces major obstacles if these natural basins are shared among different countries, and479

even among different administrative divisions within the same country. First, national socio-480

economic development objectives could be at odd with those of integrated watershed/aquifer481

management, as countries seek to utilize natural resources within their national boundaries for482

the sole benefit of their citizens. This may include not only utilizing water resource within the483

same watershed or aquifer, but also transferring it to other parts of the country. Second,484

technological advances have made it possible to develop large water storage and conveyance485

infrastructure and utilizes deep aquifers that were not accessible in the past. Third, historically486

and particularly in the Middle East, human settlement and consequently sizable water use started487

and proliferated first in the downstream areas due to their more hospitable landscape and then488

temperate climate compared to those of the rugged upstream regions. Fourth, the high variability489


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and uneven distribution of water makes its value, and the potential of conflict over it, vary over490

time and space.491

In the aftermath of the First World War, newly formed political boundaries crossed natural water492

basins and aquifers. Following independence Arab countries sought to develop their water493

resources to expand their agriculture and meet rising domestic and industrial demands. This has494

brought several countries into competition and potential conflict over shared water resources.495

The significance of these issues to water resources management varies across the region and496

depends on the level of dependency on shared water resources, the upstream/downstream497

position of the country, economical and military stature, and the political relationships among498

sharing countries. On the Euphrates/Tigris basin, Turkey has the most favorable position being499

the upstream country with powerful military and high level of development. This allowed it 500

despite repeated protests from downstream Syria and Iraq - to extensively dam the Euphrates501

basin and pursue aggressive development in the Tigris basin jeopardizing runoffs to Syria and502

Iraq. Also tension rose between Syria and Iraq over filling a major reservoir in Syria. A less503

conspicuous tension is broiling over Irans recent diversion of major tributaries to Tigris which504

have reduced significantly runoff to the Marshes.505

On the Nile basin, Egypt is maintaining dominance despite being in the extreme downstream506

end. Egypt hence influence water resources development in upstream countries. Egypt has507championed the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) to facilitate collaboration on managing the Nile508

basin. The situation on the Nile Basin is however diverging into a crisis as Egypt and Sudan who509

have entered in agreement 1957 to share the Nile water are facing off against most of the510

upstream riparian countries who oppose this agreement in favor of another they have proposed.511

The new agreement, the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which was recently signed512

by most riparian countries calls for replacing the NBI with a basin commission that manages513

water resources in the Nile Basin on behalf of all the Nile Basin states (Stephan 2010).Egypt514

and Sudan strongly oppose this agreement and consider it nonbinding. It seems that both515

countries are concerned that the CFA would effectively reduce their current water allocations.516


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3.6.INCREASING LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGES FROM EXTREME517FLOODING EVENTS518

Several devastating flash floods in the past few years have resulted in significant loss of life and519

economic damage across the Arab region. According to ESCWA (2010) flash floods have520

claimed a thousand lives in November 2001 and another 31 lives November 2008 in Algeria.521

Cyclone Gono claimed 50 lives in August 2007 in Oman. Flash floods occasionally kill scores of522

people in Egypt, Yemen and other Arab countries.523

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding events. This is524

only however one side of the problem. A flooding disaster is a construct of a physical flooding525

event of massive and fast moving body of water, and an impacted area which contains people,526

and buildings, infrastructure and other vital economic assets (Assaf 2011). An intense rainfall527

event in an open desert is hardly an issue, whereas a much less intense rainfall event in a528

crowded, highly built and poorly drained area is of great concern as it may lead to torrents that529

sweep people to their death. The flooding event in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia that killed over 150530

people and caused great economical losses was initiated by an intense rainfall storm that dumped531

90 mm in four hours over an area that normally receives 45 mm per year. Although the storm is532

unprecedented in record, the resultant torrents would have been reduced significantly had the533

area been equipped with adequate drainage system. More significantly, the death and damage534

could have been reduced or even eliminated had development being avoided in the natural535

drainage area of the ephemeral flash flood, known as wadi. A large number of the victims were536

migrant workers who lived in poorly constructed shanty houses in the wadi area. Also, the area537

contains major highway conjunction, which explains the large number of destroyed cars and538

killed auto occupants. To make matter worse, the police and civil defense units were ill prepared539

to handle large-scale disasters (Assaf 2010).540

As indicated earlier with respect to droughts, we can no longer assume storm patterns to541

resemble those in the past. Water resources and urban planners need to incorporate this new level542

of uncertainties in their future designs and plans.543


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3.7.DETERIORATING WATER QUALITY CONDITIONS544Deteriorating water quality conditions are rendering significant water resources unusable even545

for less water quality demanding applications. For example, domestic sewage, industrial waste546

and agricultural return flows from Cairo is sent mostly untreated through the 70 km Bahr El547

Baqar channel to discharge into the 1000 - km2Lake Manzala in the north east of the Nile Delta.548

The discharge from Bahr El Baqar is heavily loaded with a wide range of contaminants including549

bacteria, heavy metals, and toxic organics. This has resulted in high fish mortality and550

malformation. Local fishery has suffered significantly due to the wide public aversion of551

consuming the Lakes fish which in the past represented third of total fish harvest in Egypt552

(USAID 1997). The Upper Litani basin in Lebanon provides another stark example of how years553

of poor wastewater management has turned the river, mostly fed by freshwater springs, into a554

sewage tunnel during the large part of the year (Assaf 2008). The situation is also compounded555

by an uncontrolled use of fertilizers that have increased contamination of underlying aquifers556

(Assaf 2009). Climate change would exacerbate these problems as higher temperatures will557

increase bacterial activity and lower freshwater supplies increase the strength of wastewater.558

Salinization by excessive mining of aquifer is prevalent throughout the region especially in559

heavily populated coastal areas including Beirut, Gaza, Latyica) and along the Gulf. Also,560

interior aquifers (e.g. Amman-Zarqa basin) have been affected by the problem as excessive561

abstraction draw up underlying saline waters. Salinization is very difficult to reverse as it562

requires large amounts of freshwater to bring down the freshwater/saline interface. Lacking any563

control measures, climate change is projected to intensify salinization of aquifers as the increased564

supply/demand gap will encourage further abstraction of groundwater565

3.8.LOSS OF WATER ECOSYSTEM SERVICES566The detrimental impact of the rapid development, in particular those related to water resources,567

on the environment and the health of ecosystems has been overlooked in the Arab region.568

Several wetlands and estuaries have been disrupted and even destroyed due to water diversion569

schemes and pollution from domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors.570


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3.9.WATER GOVERNANCE571Water resources management problems in the Arab region are compounded by generally poor572

governance. Although most countries have water policies or strategies that address several of the573

challenges addressed earlier, implementation is lagging behind considerably. World Bank574

(2007) has attributed this to several reasons including weak political resolve to implement575

policies, lack of accountability, and the ineffective division of water management and services576

among public and private sectors.577

3.10. WEAK INFORMATION BASE AND INADEQUATE578RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY579

Planning and decision making is highly dependent on access to accurate and relevant580

information. Not only is data on waterand for that matter other important issues - are hard to581

come by, the few available information are not freely accessible due to official restrictions582

related to security concerns and the general reluctance of research agencies and individual583

researchers to share information with each others. For instance, efforts to carry out climate584

modeling studies for the Levant are hampered by unavailability of representative measurements585

(Evans et al. 2004).586

Research and development are not given high priority by Arab governments judged by very low587

budgetary allocations ranked second lowest after Africa (Laamrani and Salih 2010). Research is588

conducted in an ad-hoc manner with limited scope. Taylor et al. (2011) have remarked that589

research institutions in the Arab region are distinctively weak throughout all processes of590

producing, disseminating and using knowledge, which reflect very negatively on the state of591

research and development in the region.592

3.11. PUBLIC AWARENESS OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE593ISSUES594

There are few studies in the Arab world that assess public awareness and concern about water595

scarcity and the climate change issues. The public is generally conscious of water problems, yet596


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not fully knowledgeable of the causes. There is a general distrust of governments and that applies597

to water policies and initiatives. Many believe that groundwater resources are abundant and598

virtually limitless and that government policies are designed to restrict their use and are599

discriminately directed at the disadvantaged particularly in the farming community.600

The impact of climate change on water resources is less understood by the public which largely601

reflect the less clear messages received through the research community and media. The Arab602

Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) has conducted a survey to assess public603

awareness of climate change issue in the Arab region. The results indicated high awareness of604

climate change and concern about its potential impacts (Saab 2009). However, the significance605

of these results is relatively limited considering that the survey was only distributed to606

subscribers of AFEDs magazine.607

4.ADAPTATION OPTIONS608Section summary:This section provides an overview of adaptation policies and measures that609

can be implemented to address water resources issues in a changing climate. The section also610

discusses how Arab countries are currently managing water resources challenges.611

In a future world when a warmer, drier and more volatile climate in the Arab region will most612

likely exacerbate already adverse water conditions it is necessary to adopt holistic water613

strategies that can respond in a balanced manner to a multitude of complex, intertwined and often614

conflicting challenges. These strategies have to be flexible and adaptive to address the high615

uncertainties on how conditions may materialize in the future. In this water scarce region, water616

is the common denominator and often the most limiting factor in key socio-economic sectors. It617

is consequently necessary that adaptation strategies incorporate water issues as well as key618

sectors such as agriculture, urban development, trade and tourism.619

To facilitate developing these strategies we propose several adaptation options organized under620

the umbrella of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) and socio-economic621

development framework. The IWRM components are derived from the well established approach622


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that advocates balancing water supply development with demand management with full623

consideration of environmental issues. The IWRM components are complemented with measures624

that address water role in socio-economic development.625

A central theme in this approach is that there are no fit-for-all adaptation solutions that apply to626

all Arab countries. Even at the national level, adaptation measures have to take into consideration627

variations from one locality to another. An effective strategy is to consider a portfolio of628

adaptation options from among a pool of measures tailored to suit each countrys political, socio-629

economic and environmental conditions. Gulf countries for example will need to focus on630

enhancing their desalination capacities, reusing of wastewater reuse and developing strategic631

reserves while pursuing aggressive water demand management programs. Countries dependent632

on shared water resources would have to place a high priority on reaching agreements on633

managing these resources. In formulating these portfolios it is important that synergy and also634

potential conflict is clearly considered among individual adaptation measures. For instance,635

losses caused by inefficient agricultural policies can outweigh gains from water conservation636

measures. In contrast, the benefits of reducing pollution by treating wastewater can be greatly637

enhanced through developing the necessary regulations and infrastructure to facilitate using638

treated wastewater in agriculture and groundwater recharge.639

In the following sections, several adaptation options are explored and discussed within the640context of the Arab region. For the purpose of simplifying this discussion, adaption options are641

categorized into two main categories: water management and water related development policies642

in non-water sectors. The first category captures the two main IWRM branches of supply and643

demand management in addition to other relevant water issues such as governance, disaster risk644

management and cooperation in managing shared water resources. Water related policies in non-645

water sectors include agricultural policies, food security, energy pricing and economic regional646

integration.Table 5 shows the topology of adaptation options. It is important to underscore that647

the order in presenting these methods in the topology or the sections does not signify the648

importance of one measure over the other. As indicated earlier the relative significance of these649

measures varies from one country to another.650


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Table 5. Topology of water climate-change adaptation options651

652

4.1.INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT653Integrated water resources management (IWRM) is considered an ideal tool to assure654

economically optimal, socially equitable and environmentally friendly utilization of water655

resources. The IWRM has also been recognized as an effective climate change adaptation tool656

(Cap-Net 2009). IWRM is based on four principles brought forward by the International657

Conference on Water and the Environment in Dublin in 1992, and later adopted by the United658

Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The659

principles include (Agarwal et al. 2000):660

1stPrinciple: Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life,661

development, and the environment;662

2nd Principle: Water development and management should be based on a participatory663

approach, involving users, planners, and policy-makers at all levels;664

3rd Principle: Women play a central part in the provision, management, and safeguarding665

of water; and666


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4thPrinciple: Water has an economic value in all its competing uses, and should be667

recognized as an economic good.668

IWRM is a conceptual approach that does not lend itself directly to specific measures.669

Subsequent efforts by the Global Water Partnership (GWP) focused on developing670

implementation frameworks for the IWRM. Those include balancing water demand management671

with supply management, ecosystem protection and social equity. It also emphasized the672

importance of water as an economic commodity that need to be managed to reflect its scarcity673

and optimize its socio-economic and environmental services.674

4.2.SUPPLY SIDE MANAGEMENT675Water resources management traditionally focused on developing water supplies. Although676

water resources management efforts are leaning toward better demand management and677

governance, water supply development is necessary to assure reliability of water resources678

systems and optimal utilization of resources.679

4.2.1.STORAGE AND CONVEYANCE680The earlier inhabitants of the Arab region have recognized the value of storing wateras well as681agricultural produceduring times of abundance to survive through times of shortage. Storage682

systems ranged in scale from the simple rainfall collecting cisterns to the Marreb dam in Yemen683

and old Egyptian dams. Elaborate systems were also developed to bring water from relatively684

humid areas to water scarce settled areas. Some of these systems survived several millennia such685

as the Aflaj (Jagannathan et al. 2009). As their modern counterparts these systems were686

relatively effective in dealing with the strong seasonal patterns of rainfall. However, extended687

multi-year droughts were much harder to mitigate and occasionally led to famine and societal688

collapse. In modern times several Arab countries have invested significantly in water supply689

infrastructure. The region has now the worlds highest storage capacity per m3(World Bank690

2007). These investments have greatly enhanced access to water supplies and facilitated dramatic691

expansion of agriculture. For example, the Aswan High Dam is noted for bringing great water692

supply and flood protection benefits to Egypt. Prior to its construction, Egypt suffered through693


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38

major debilitating droughts and the large part of its population was at the mercy of devastating694

seasonal floods. The High Aswan dam have offered Egypt a significant control on runoff from695

the Nilewhich otherwise has highly seasonal flow - to provide stable water supply. Combined696

with a good river forecast and operational system for the entire Nile Basin, the dam has also697

enabled Egypt to effectively weather the extended drought of mid 1980s (Conway 2005).698

Several factors influence the effectiveness of storage strategy: the size, cost, rate of loss, and699

externalities. Large reservoirs are needed to provide adequate and reliable water supplies for700

large communities and secure irrigation for agriculture during the rainless growing season. Large701

reservoirs have also the advantage of scale of economy where water storage generally cost less702

per unit of volume. However they are costly to build, maintain and can result in massive social703

and environmental disturbances. For example Egypt was hardly pressed financially and704

politically to secure funding for the High Aswan Dam. The dam has successfully stopped705

damaging seasonal floods at the expense however of forfeiting their beneficial natural function706

of carrying nutrients-laden sediments to replenish the Nile Delta (Syvitski 2008). Not only is the707

Nile Delta losing its natural fertility, but it is also shrinking as little sediments are arriving to708

replace those lost by erosion.709

4.2.2.INTEGRATED SURFACE AND GROUNDWATER STORAGE710STRATEGY711

Reservoirs in arid and semi-arid regions sustain significant evaporation and seepage losses due to712

flat terrain, permeable geological formations, and long and hot summers (Sivapragasam et al.713

2009). It is estimated that evaporation from Lake Nasser (reservoir of the High Aswan Dam)714

consumes about 5% of the total Nile flow (Sadek et al. 1997). Lake Assad in Syria also loses715

substantial amounts of water. In warmer climate evaporation rates increase reducing the storage716

value of these reservoirs. To reduce evaporation rates, earlier storage and conveyance methods717relied on utilizing underground storage and tunnels. Evaporation is effectively eliminated from718

water cisterns and the underground Aflaj system. These practices can be reinstated to719

complement rather than replace, due to their smaller scale, existing storage facilities.720


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A more promising implementation of the store-under-ground approach is to use the vast natural721

aquifer storage capacity to store and improve the quality of water. Due to having virtually no722

evaporation, aquifers have a distinct advantage over surface reservoirs in semi-arid regions. Also723

the Arab region has ample aquifer capacity in comparison to the few suitable sites for surface724

storage. Aquifer storage can be used to store excess winter runoff and treated wastewater. In725

Saudi Arabia, a large network of recharge dams dots the arid Arabian Desert. Al-Turbak (1991)726

indicated that these dams are highly effective in recharging shallow aquifers. Abu Dhabi has727

embarked on a massive multi-billion program based on the Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR)728

approach to use local aquifers as strategic reserves for desalinated water. Currently the UAE has729

only 2 day desalinated water storage capacity making the country extremely vulnerable to any730

disruption in the desalination plants. Other GCC have similar storage capacity with the highest731

not exceeding 5 days (Dawoud 2009).732

In the face of projected increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts, Arab countries733

should develop long-term plans to manage its natural and man-made storages to offer reliable734

water supplies on a multi-year basis. Acting as water banks, storages can be managed to strike a735

value-driven balance between supply and demand through systems that involve forecasting and736

monitoring water inputs, outputs and stock levels and protecting water quality. Policies and737

institutions should be developed to protect these vital resources. If properly managed, water738

storageboth surface and groundwater - can be an effective and cost-effective measure in739

mitigating climatic seasonal and multi-year variability.740

4.2.3.MANAGEMENT OF GROUNDWATER RESOURCES741Not only is groundwater the largest source of water supplies for most Arab countries, but it also742

represent a strategic reserve that countriesincluding those with substantial surface water- can743

fall back on to meet their needs during prolonged droughts. Allan contends (2007) that744

groundwater has played an instrumental role in the socio-economic transformation of the Arab745

region. In several Arab countries, particularly those with no perennial surface water, aquifers746

have been heavily mined to defer water crisis. However these near-term stop-gap measures have747

resulted in major decline in groundwater stocks and the permanent loss of several aquifers due to748

salinisation and seawater intrusion. Several other aquifers were contaminated by domestic,749


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industrial and agricultural waste. Several major fossil aquifers were heavily mined to support750

low-value agricultural activities.751

The strategic importance of groundwater resources will rise as climate change further shrink752

water supplies in the region. Fossil groundwater resources are particularly important. These753

resources should be reserved for domestic use and high value industrial and agricultural754

activities. Arab countries should place strict regulations to prevent depletion of these resources755

and develop programs to rehabilitate and recharge these aquifers to reclaim their vital socio-756

economical services757

Renewable groundwater resources are in theory best managed by maintaining a balance between758

supply and abstraction and optimal allocation of water withdrawals. In practice, however, two759

main barriers stand in the face of proper management of groundwater resources. First, many of760

these resources stretch over several countries that in most cases did not enter into agreement to761

manage these resources. This has encouraged overexploitation of these resources. Second,762

encouraged by past agricultural policies, many of these resources are already being used by763

farmers making it difficult to reverse these activities. In many cases farming has only stopped764

after water levels have dropped significantly or water got too saline to be used in agriculture.765

However, after several decades of improper management, many Arab countriesalarmed by the766

loss of valuable groundwater stockshave instated policies that restrict groundwater extraction767

and curtail agricultural activities based on groundwater. Jordan has placed restrictions on768

abstraction and stopped issuing licensing for drilling wells in the Amman-Zarqa Basin after769

aquifers dropped several meters following years of excessive abstraction (Chebaane et al. 2004).770

Saudi Arabia has phased out wheat farming using fossil water, which climaxed several years ago771

at the expense of depleting valuable non-renewable stocks. Sowers and Weinthal (2010) indicate772

however that these restrictions are facing resistance from highly influential agricultural firms and773

some have circumvented these regulations by switching to other crops.774

4.2.4.PROTECTION OF WATER RESOURCES775The relentless and growing pollution of water resources in the region is depriving itsometimes776

irreversibly - of vital natural assets that are very costly to replace. Consequently, there is an777


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urgent need to implement laws and regulation to stem off pollution. Although several Arab778

countries have strict laws and regulations for protecting water resources, only few have779

implemented them effectively. A notable exception is Jordan which has recently created water780

and environmental protection program that includes a dedicated law enforcement forcethe first781

of its kind in the region (Subah, A. & Margane 2010).782

Water pollution is strongly associated with the lack of alternatives for waste disposal and783

treatment. For example, urban areas which are served by sewage system may simply dump their784

sewage untreated into streams. The same applies in areas where solid wastes are not disposed in785

properly constructed landfills.786

Artificial recharge could be used to retard seawater intrusion by creating a wall of freshwater787

at the seawater/freshwater interface. The coastal aquifers in Lebanon are currently under a great788

danger from being overwhelmed by seawater intrusion due to the excessive extraction of789

groundwater especially in the drier period of the year (Saadeh 2008). Prior to the vast790

urbanization of the coastal area, seawater was kept at check by the hydraulic pressure of inflow791

from mountainous region. To restore this balance, several measures need to be taken including792

controlling illegal pumping and recharge aquifer with excess runoff in the winter and treated793

wastewater throughout the year.794

4.2.5.WASTEWATER TREATMENT AND REUSE795Improperly managed, highly contaminated wastewater is highly likely to find its way to streams796

and aquifers endangering public health, damaging vital ecosystems and rendering unusable797

valuable water resources. Also, disposed untreated wastewater is occasionally accessed by798

farmers trying to manage through drier times of the years, or simply to avoid paying for water799

services. Unless proper action is taken, this maladaptation practice is expected to intensify in a800

warmer and drier climate.801

High capital and operational costs are one of the main obstacles to set up wastewater treatment802

systems. These can however be defrayed by reusing treated wastewater particularly in agriculture803

and freeing up high quality freshwater for domestic use. The nutrient laden treated wastewater804

has the added benefit of reducing the need for costly and environmentally unfriendly fertilizers.805


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Given the choice farmers however prefer to use freshwater fearing restrictions by importing806

countries on wastewater grown produce and the public aversion of using such produce. Gulf807

countries for example imposed restrictions in the 1980s on importing Jordanian produce as the808

country expanded the use of treated wastewater in agriculture.809

Several measures are required to expand the use of treated wastewater in agriculture. Stringent810

public health regulations in the application of wastewater water and handling of produce are811

necessary to reduce risk and increase public confidence and acceptance. Treatment methods need812

to be tuned and optimized to application use requirements. Less stringent, and consequently less813

costly, quality

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