challenges and opportunities along the biomass value...
TRANSCRIPT
Challenges and Opportunities Along the Biomass Value Chain
Cort Isernhagen
Managing Director, Asia-Pacific
International Biomass Conference Malaysia 2016
October 11, 2016
About Lux Research
Helps clients find new business opportunities from emerging technologies in physical and life sciences
Offers ongoing technology and market intelligence, as well as market data and consulting services
Over 250 clients on six continents – multinational corporations, investors, governments, and SMEs
Global reach, with offices in Boston, New York, Amsterdam, Singapore, and Tokyo
Combines deep technical expertise with business analysis to support strategic decisions
More at www.luxresearchinc.com
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Coverage areas
Advanced Materials Agro Innovation Alternative Fuels Autonomous Systems 2.0 Bio-based Materials & Chemicals Coatings Digital Health & Wellness Distributed Generation Energy Storage Exploration and Production Food and Nutrition Future Computing Platforms Intelligent Buildings Industrial Big Data & Analytics Industrial Internet of Things Sensors Solar Sustainable Building Materials Water Wearable and Flexible Electronics
Agenda
Today’s challenges along the biomass value chain
Overcoming challenges in the bio-based industry
The strategic playbook for Malaysia and others
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Challenge 1: Feedstock Price Assumptions Varied
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Conversion Feedstock Product
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Fe
ed
sto
ck P
rice
($
/dry
MT
)
Feedstock Price Assumptions in the Bio-Based Industry
Concept Lab Development Introduction Scale
Challenge 2: A Crowded Dance Floor for Conversion Technologies
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Conversion Feedstock Product
Challenge 3: Impact of Oil Prices
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Conversion Feedstock Product
Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Image Sources: The Economist, New Internationalist, TIME
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
2014 2015 2016
Sp
ot
Pri
ce ($
/bb
l)
Crude Oil Spot Price
Agenda
Challenges along the biomass value chain
Overcoming challenges in the bio-based industry
The strategic playbook for Malaysia and others
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Biomass availability is not an issue; affordability is
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Africa ASEAN Europe NorthAmerica
NorthAsia
SouthAmerica
SouthAsia
Mil
lion
dry
To
ns
Global Biomass Availability
Rice Straw Wheat straw Palm residues
Sugar cane bagasse Corn stover/cobs Wood Residues
$- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120
Rice Straw
Wheat straw
Palm EFB
Palm OPF
Sugarcane bagasse
Corn Stover
Sugarcane bagasse
Feedstock Price ($/dry MT)
Biomass Affordability
Small-scale, distributive technologies may be key
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Summary information
Founded in 2008
Location Visalia, CA
Employees 28
Key partners and backers*
Aemetis, Flint Hills Resources, Pacific Ethanol
Key metrics
Stage of development
Scale
Capacity (GPY)* 750,000
Summary information
Founded in 1995
Location Colwich, KS
Employees 300
Key partners and backers*
Fournier Industries, U.S. DOE BETO
Key metrics
Stage of development
Pilot
Capacity (GPY)* 260,000
Summary information
Founded in 2013
Location Sunny Isles, FL
Employees 5
Key partners and backers
Hamrick Engineering, VerdeNero
Key metrics
Stage of development
Lab
Capacity (GPY)* 1,000
*Key partners, backers, and key metrics are applicable only to the bolt-on cellulosic ethanol business for each company
Pinpointing high-potential technologies
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2.5
3
3.5
2.5 3 3.5
Te
chn
ica
l Va
lue
Business Execution
Lux Innovation Grid positioning for major technology categories
Algae Anaerobic digestion Biomass to sugars Catalytic conversions
Fermentation Gasification Pyrolysis
High-potential
Long-shot
Dominant
Undistinguished
High-potential technology developers for biomass
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Technology: Develops small-scale gasification units for distributed, on-site electricity generation Strategy: Targeting biomass and entering emerging markets via strategic partnerships with feedstock providers
Technology: Solid catalyst technology converts palm fatty acid distillates to biodiesel Strategy: Seeking joint ventures similar to develop commercial projects similar to the 50 MGY facility with Flint Hills Resources in the U.S.
Technology: Molded fiber packaging for consumer goods to replace PVC and PET using cellulosic biomass Strategy: Turnkey manufacturing model with production companies; potential partnerships in ASEAN
Gasification Catalytic Conversion Bio-Processing
Bio-based industry shifting to high-value products
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Hunting for Value and Performance in the Bio-Based Materials and Chemicals Space
Cutting the hype for high-performance biomass
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Nanocrystalline cellulose
Spider Silk
Self-assembly
Self-healing
Structural color
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3
5
1 3 5
Va
lue
pro
po
siti
on
Commercial scalability
Maturity
2
5
4
3
1
Strong positive
Positive
Wait and see
Caution
Strong caution
Lux Take
Design inspiration Act now
Ignore Overhyped
Navigating the Web of Bio-Based Performance Materials
Agenda
Challenges along the biomass value chain
Overcoming challenges in the bio-based industry
The strategic playbook for Malaysia and others
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Malaysia’s strategic playbook to drive bio-based industry growth domestically and internationally
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Near-Term Value Chain Long-Term
Direct relationships with local plantation operators critical; framework on biomass utilization will provide upstream security
Continue to forge relationships with neighboring countries in order to leverage the diversity of biomass
Form collaborations with innovative start-ups and foreign entities to drive commercialization of technologies focused on palm residues
Engage local universities in order to leverage locally-grown innovation and nurture the IP into start-up companies
Focus on promising high-value products to hedge against low oil prices; working closely with state-level municipalities promote bio-based adoption
Develop downstream value chain (i.e. offtake agreements) of bio-based products locally; downstream security an integral piece in bio-based development
Feedstock
Conversion
Product
Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you
Cort Isernhagen
Managing Director, Asia-Pacific
+65 6592-6975