challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - schodde.pdf · minex consulting...

51
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration in Australia Richard Schodde Managing Director, MinEx Consulting Adjunct Professor, Centre for Exploration Targeting , UWA UNCOVER Summit 2014 31st March 2014 Adelaide

Upload: others

Post on 25-Apr-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Challenges and opportunities forunder-cover exploration in Australia

Richard SchoddeManaging Director, MinEx Consulting

Adjunct Professor, Centre for Exploration Targeting , UWA

UNCOVER Summit 201431st March 2014 Adelaide

Page 2: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Overview

1. Trends in exploration spend in Australia

2. Number of discoveries made

3. Quality and value of the discoveries made (and thebusiness case for why you explore in Australia)

4. Change in the depth of discovery

5. Amount of drilling required to discover

6. Discovery methods used

7. Summary / Conclusions

2

Page 3: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

1. TRENDS IN EXPLORATION SPENDExploration expenditures reached an all-time high in 2012

3

Page 4: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Exploration expenditures in Australia

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

Mar-90 Mar-95 Mar-00 Mar-05 Mar-10 Mar-15

4

Total Expenditures (June 2013 Australian $Billion)

Source: ABS Cat No. 8412.0Note: Data reported on an annualised basisIncludes exploration expenditures on Bulk Minerals (such as coal, iron ore and bauxite)

$4.30B inJune 2012

$2.15B inDec 2013

Exploration expenditureshave halved in the last 2 years

… but still well above thelows experienced in 2002

Exploration expenditureshave halved in the last 2 years

… but still well above thelows experienced in 2002

$0.73B inMarch 2002

Page 5: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

Mar-90 Mar-95 Mar-00 Mar-05 Mar-10 Mar-15

Other - Bulk

Coal

Iron Ore

Other - Non Bulk

Diamonds

Uranium

Base Metals

Gold

5

Source: ABS Cat No. 8412.0Note: Data reported on an annualised basis

Spending on gold and base metalsis now below that experienced

back in the early 2000s

Spending on gold and base metalsis now below that experienced

back in the early 2000s

Total Expenditures (June 2013 Australian $Billion)

Most of the growthwas in Bulk MineralsMost of the growthwas in Bulk Minerals

Exploration expenditures in Australiaby Commodity

Page 6: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Bulk Minerals now accounts for over half of total spendLevel of exploration by Commodity in Australia: March 1990-December 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mar-90 Mar-95 Mar-00 Mar-05 Mar-10 Mar-15

Other - Bulk

Coal

Iron Ore

Other - Non Bulk

Diamonds

Uranium

Base Metals

Gold

6

Percentage of Total Expenditures

Source: ABS Cat No. 8412.0Note: Data reported on an annualised basis

10%

55%

Page 7: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

2. NUMBER OF DISCOVERIES MADENumber of discoveries varies with spend and drilling

7

Page 8: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Number of significant discoveries madeNon-Bulk discoveries Australia: 1975-2012

0

10

20

30

40

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Moderate Discoveries

Major Discoveries

Giant Discoveries

8

Number ofDiscoveries

Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries..Analysis based on Moderate-, Major- and Giant-sized deposits

Fewer GIANTdiscoveries inrecent years

Fewer GIANTdiscoveries inrecent years

Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Page 9: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Number of significant discoveries madeNon-Bulk discoveries Australia: 1975-2012

0

10

20

30

40

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Estimated Unreported Discoveries

Moderate Discoveries

Major Discoveries

Giant Discoveries

9

Number ofDiscoveries

Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries..Analysis based on Moderate-, Major- and Giant-sized deposits

Fewer GIANTdiscoveries inrecent years

Fewer GIANTdiscoveries inrecent years

Need to adjust for thefact that it takes time toreport a discovery and

drill it out

Need to adjust for thefact that it takes time toreport a discovery and

drill it out

On average 10discoveries are

made each year inAustralia

On average 10discoveries are

made each year inAustralia

Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Page 10: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Discovery rate moves in-line with expendituresNon-Bulk exploration spend and discoveries Australia: 1975-2012

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

0

10

20

30

40

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Estimated Unreported DiscoveriesModerate DiscoveriesMajor DiscoveriesGiant DiscoveriesExpenditures - Non-Bulk

10

Total Expenditures(June 2013 A$B)

Number ofDiscoveries

Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries..Analysis based on Moderate-, Major- and Giant-sized deposits

Even after adjusting forunreported discoveries , in

the last 10 years a large gaphas opened up between

expenditures and number ofdeposits found

Even after adjusting forunreported discoveries , in

the last 10 years a large gaphas opened up between

expenditures and number ofdeposits found

… Gap due to higherinput costs (labour,drilling and admin).

Is partly offset by shift toBrownfield Exploration

(but this delivers smaller-sized discoveries)

Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Page 11: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Discovery rate also moves in-line with drillingNon-Bulk exploration drilling and discoveries Australia: 1975-2012

0

4

8

12

16

0

10

20

30

40

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Estimated Unreported DiscoveriesModerate DiscoveriesMajor DiscoveriesGiant DiscoveriesMetres Drilled - Non-Bulk (est)

11

Metres Drilled(Million)

Number ofDiscoveries

Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries..Analysis based on Moderate-, Major- and Giant-sized deposits

The implication isthat Industry needsto do more drilling

The implication isthat Industry needsto do more drilling

Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Page 12: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

The amount of drilling on new deposits hassignificantly declined in recent years

Amount of exploration drilling in Australia: Sept 2003-Dec 2013

0

2

4

6

8

10

Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13

12

Total metres drilled (Million)

Source: ABS Cat No. 8412.0Note: Includes exploration expenditures on Bulk Minerals (such as coal, iron ore and bauxite)Data reported on an annualised basis.

New Deposits

Existing Deposits

Increased emphasis on existing(ie Brownfield) projects

Increased emphasis on existing(ie Brownfield) projects

Page 13: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

3. QUALITY & VALUE OF THEDISCOVERIES MADE

Do we make money out of exploration?

13

Page 14: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

2%

Most of the wealth created arein Tier 1 and 2 discoveries

Estimated value of 93 discoveries found in Australia between 2004-2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Number ofDeposits

NPV

14

Tier 1

31%

53%

14%

21%

4%

29%

Note: NPV values refer to the Net Present Value at the Decision-to-Build stageEV = Expected Value, which is the weighted average value of the NPV rangeValues are based on long run commodity prices as prevailing at Jan 2013

Caution: Values are indicative / approximate-only

‘Tier 1 deposits’ are Company making" mines.They are large, long life and low cost. … ie >20Years ,>200 ktpa Cu or >250koz pa Au, andBottom Quartile costs. Have an NPV of>$1000m, and EV of ~$2000m

‘‘Tier 2 deposits’ are “Significant” deposits -but are not quite as large or long life or asprofitable as Tier 1 deposits . They have anNPV of $200-1000m and EV of ~$500m

‘Tier 3 deposits’ are small / marginal depositsWhile they can be profitable they often only getdeveloped at the top of the business cycle . Atthey don’t meet more than one of the Tier 1 or 2criteria. NPV of $0 to $200m, EV of ~$100m

Definitions

Examples: Tropicana [Gold] ,Eucla [Mineral Sands]

Example: Nova [Nickel]

Example: Andy Well [Gold]

Tier 2

Tier 3

Unclassified

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

‘Unclassified deposits’ are small depositsthat are less than “Major “in size and/or ofminimal value. EV of (say) ~$10m

Example: Myrtle [Zinc]

47%

Unclassified

Page 15: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Number of discoveries by qualityTier 1,2 & 3 discoveries in Australia: 1975-2013

0

5

10

15

1975 1985 1995 2005

Tier 3

Tier 2

Tier 1

15

Number

Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2014

Caution:Incomplete data inrecent years

157

208

38

13

On average, industry finds two Tier1,ten Tier2 and forty Tier3 depositsper decade

Note: Excludes satellite discoveries in existing camps. Excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries

Page 16: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Exploration expenditures versusexpected value of discoveries in Australia

$0

$2

$4

$6

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Unclassified

Tier 3

Tier 2

Tier 1

Exploration Spend

16

Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2013

Caution:Incomplete discoverydata in recent yearsTRUE VALUE IS ~2XTHAT CURRENTLYREPORTED

Value is driven by the discoveryof Tier 1 & 2 deposits

… These are rare events !

Value is driven by the discoveryof Tier 1 & 2 deposits

… These are rare events !

2013 US$ billion

CAUTION: Values are indicative/approximate only.Analysis based on an average Expected Value (at the time of Discovery) of a Tier 1, 2 , 3 deposit of US$2000m,$500m and $100m respectively. Unassigned deposits have been given a notional value of $10m.Analysis excludes Bulk Minerals

After adjusting formissing discovery data,exploration continues tocreate value for Australia

After adjusting formissing discovery data,exploration continues tocreate value for Australia

Page 17: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

How does Australia compare to the Rest of the World?Spend & performance by Region: 2003-12

Region ExplorationSpend (2012 $b)

No ofDiscoveries #

Tier 1+2Discoveries

Estimated Value(2012 $b)

Value /Spend

Australia $12 10% 84 15% 14 17% $13 14% 1.12

Canada $21 18% 74 13% 15 18% $15 16% 0.71

USA $9 8% 19 3% 6 7% $5 6% 0.60

Latin America $27 23% 133 24% 15 18% $23 24% 0.84

Pacific/SE Asia $6 5% 23 4% 2 2% $4 4% 0.63

Africa $16 14% 124 22% 20 24% $22 24% 1.38

W Europe $3 3% 24 4% 1 1% $1 2% 0.48

Rest of World $22 19% 78 14% 11 13% $10 11% 0.46

----- ------ ------ ------- ------ ------- ------- ------- -------

TOTAL $116 100% 559 100% 86 100% $94 100% 0.81

17

Note: Analysis excludes Bulk Minerals, and excludes satellite deposits found within existing campsDiscoveries refer to Moderate-, Major- and Giant-sized deposits.The Estimated Value is approximate only, and ignores the value of unreported discoveries Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

i.e. “Bang-per-Buck”i.e. “Bang-per-Buck”

Australia performed 38% better than the World averageAustralia performed 38% better than the World average

Page 18: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

4. CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OFDISCOVERY

We are having to progressively explore under deeper cover

18

Page 19: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Depth of cover for discoveries in Australia: 1900-2013

19

Discovery Year

Depth of Cover (Metres)

Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries..Analysis based on Moderate-, Major- and Giant-sized deposits

It is difficult to finddeposits under deep

cover

It is difficult to finddeposits under deep

cover

… end-result is that wehave to drill more metres

per discovery

… end-result is that wehave to drill more metres

per discovery

Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Most of the golddiscoveries are stillbeing made under

shallow cover

Most of the golddiscoveries are stillbeing made under

shallow cover

Page 20: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Average depth of cover for discoveries - all metalsWestern World: 2004-2013

224

152

129

83

164035

0

79

0

50

100

150

200

250

57

20

WWAverage

LatinAm

Africa(excl Sth Africa) Aust

WesternEuropeCanada USA

PacificSE Asia

Restof WW

Metres

If you exclude SouthAfrica, the average

depth of cover falls from57 to 16 metres

If you exclude SouthAfrica, the average

depth of cover falls from57 to 16 metres

Note: Based on 435 Moderate-, Major- and Giant-sized depositsExcludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Excludes undersea deposits Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2014

The depth of coverissue is most critical inUSA, Western Europe

and Canada

The depth of coverissue is most critical inUSA, Western Europe

and Canada

Page 21: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

5. AMOUNT OF DRILLINGREQUIRED TO DISCOVER

Drilling is an essential for discovery but it is very inefficient

21

Page 22: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Metres drilled per discoveryAustralia: 1975-2012

22

3-Year Rolling Average

Million Metres per Discovery

Note: Analysis based on Moderate-, Major- and Giant-sized depositsExcludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Data for 1992-2012 excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries and spend.

Based on identifiedNon-Bulk discoveries

Includes adjustmentfor unreporteddiscoveries

???Estimate based on identifieddiscoveries and total drilling(ie includes drilling for Bulk-Mineralsbut not their discoveries)

Metres required perdiscovery is slowlyrising over time ?

Metres required perdiscovery is slowlyrising over time ?

Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Page 23: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Over the last Decade (2004-2013) in Australia

We made … 3 Giant discoveries

24 Major discoveries

66 Moderate discoveries

~30 ?? Unidentified discoveries

~122 discoveries

And spent … A$14.6b (US$12.7b) on exploration (in 2013 $)

And drilled … ~64.9 million metres

Performance >> A$120m (US$104m) per discovery (in 2013 $)

~0.53 million metres per (>= Moderate) discovery

~2.4 million metres per (>= Major) discovery

~21 million metres per (Giant) discovery

23

Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps and Bulk Mineral discoveries and spend.

Page 24: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

The amount of drilling required is enormousand the Probability of Success is very low !!

24

Giant Discovery = 21,000 kmor 250,000 holes

ADELAIDE

Moderate Discovery = 530 kmor 6400 holes

ROXBY DOWNS

Major Discovery= 2400 kmor 29,000 holes

CAPE YORK

PERTH

The OBVIOUS conclusion isthat exploration is inefficient

and most projects fail. Industryneeds to dramatically improvethe efficiency & effectiveness

of exploration

The OBVIOUS conclusion isthat exploration is inefficient

and most projects fail. Industryneeds to dramatically improvethe efficiency & effectiveness

of exploration

Note:Number of holesrequired is based ona average depth of83 metres

Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2014

Page 25: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 25

Case Study of 36 years ofdrilling activity inWestern Australia

Specialacknowledgement to

Don Flint at WA DMP forcompiling this data

Specialacknowledgement to

Don Flint at WA DMP forcompiling this data

Page 26: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Historical drilling in Western Australia: 1977-2013

26

All Holes : All depths1.347 million holes / 64.5 million metres

Source: WA Department of Mines & PetroleumGeoView database March 2014

Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only.Estimated coverage is ~ 50% of total reported. Includesresource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

The analysis covers~50% of all metresdrilled during this

period

The analysis covers~50% of all metresdrilled during this

period

Incomplete coverage prior to1992. In more recent yearsseveral holes are locked upby Confidentiality

Page 27: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Historical drilling in Western Australia: 1977-2013

27

All Holes : >50 Metres depth0.463 million holes / 44.9 million metres34% of holes / 70% of total metres drilled

Source: WA Department of Mines & PetroleumGeoView database March 2014

Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only.Estimated coverage is ~ 50% of total reported. Includesresource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

Page 28: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Historical drilling in Western Australia: 1977-2013

28

Source: WA Department of Mines & PetroleumGeoView database March 2014

All Holes : >100 Metres depth0.129 million holes / 21.7 million metres9% of holes / 34% of total metres drilled

Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only.Estimated coverage is ~ 50% of total reported. Includesresource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

Page 29: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Historical drilling in Western Australia: 1977-2013

29

Source: WA Department of Mines & PetroleumGeoView database March 2014

All Holes : >200 Metres depth29,829 holes / 10.0 million metres2% of holes / 15% of total metres drilled

Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only.Estimated coverage is ~ 50% of total reported. Includesresource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

Page 30: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Historical drilling in Western Australia: 1977-2013

30

Source: WA Department of Mines & PetroleumGeoView database March 2014

All Holes : >300 Metres depth13,203 holes / 6.2 million metres0.9% of holes / 10% of total metres drilled

Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only.Estimated coverage is ~ 50% of total reported. Includesresource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

Page 31: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Historical drilling in Western Australia: 1977-2013

31

Source: WA Department of Mines & PetroleumGeoView database March 2014

All Holes : >500 Metres depth3,578 holes / 2.8 million metres0.27% of holes / 4.3% of total metres drilled

Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only.Estimated coverage is ~ 50% of total reported. Includesresource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

Page 32: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Historical drilling in Western Australia: 1977-2013

32

Source: WA Department of Mines & PetroleumGeoView database March 2014

All Holes : >800 Metres depth1123 holes / 1.3 million metres0.08% of holes / 2.0% of total metres drilled

Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only.Estimated coverage is ~ 50% of total reported. Includesresource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

Page 33: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Historical drilling in Western Australia: 1977-2013

33

Source: WA Department of Mines & PetroleumGeoView database March 2014

Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only.Estimated coverage is ~ 50% of total reported. Includesresource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

All Holes : >1000 Metres depth611 holes / 0.8 million metres0.05% of holes / 1.3% of total metres drilled

KEY MESSAGE: The Yilgarn isnot a mature Province for

exploration … there are hugeareas of untested groundbelow 300 metres depth

KEY MESSAGE: The Yilgarn isnot a mature Province for

exploration … there are hugeareas of untested groundbelow 300 metres depth

Page 34: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Most of the holes drilled were very shallowHoles drilled in Western Australia: 1977-2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 100 200 300 400 500

34

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 100 200 300 400 500

Unknown

Other

Air Core

RAB

RC

Diamond

Cumulative Number of Holes Cumulative Metres drilled

50% of the holesdrilled were

<34 metres deep

50% of the holesdrilled were

<34 metres deep

10% of the holesdrilled were

>96 metres deep

10% of the holesdrilled were

>96 metres deep

50% of the metresdrilled were

<73 metres deep

50% of the metresdrilled were

<73 metres deep

10% of the metresdrilled were

>293 metres deep

10% of the metresdrilled were

>293 metres deep

Depth (Metres) Depth (Metres)Source: WA Department of Mines & Petroleum

GeoView database March 2014Caution: Chart is based on publicly released drill holes only. Reported coverage is~ 50% of total. Includes resource delineation as well as greenfield exploration

Page 35: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 35

Good deposits are waiting tobe found under deep cover

The following analysisis based on data for theWestern World for the

period 1950-2013

The following analysisis based on data for theWestern World for the

period 1950-2013

Page 36: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Number and size of discoveries by depthPrimary gold discoveries in Western World: 1950-2013

0 250 500

0

1-25

26-50

51-100

101-150

151-200

201-300

>300

36

0 500 1000 1500

2.8

4.9

4.2

4.3

3.6

2.6

11.8

5.9

0 5 10 15

Number Total Metal (Moz) Average Size (Moz/Discovery)

Note: Analysis based on detailed analysis of 902 primary gold discoveries > 0.1 MozExcludes satellite discoveries in existing camps. Excludes South Africa Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2014

Dep

tho

fC

over

(Metr

es)

Most gold discoverieswere outcropping

(ie 0 metres of cover)

Most gold discoverieswere outcropping

(ie 0 metres of cover)

… but discoveriesunder cover tend to

be 2x – 4 x larger

… but discoveriesunder cover tend to

be 2x – 4 x larger

Page 37: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Value of discoveries by depthPrimary gold discoveries in Western World: 1950-2013

37

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

0

1-25

26-50

51-100

101-150

151-200

201-300

>300

$0 $50 $100

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Unassigned

$135

$293

$277

$224

$337

$312

$354

$481

$0 $250 $500

Project Quality (%Tier) Total Value (US $b) Average Value (US$M/Discovery)

CAUTION: Values are indicative/approximate only.Analysis based on an average Expected Value (at the time of Discovery) of a Tier 1, 2 , 3 deposit of US$2000m,$500m and $100m respectively. Unassigned deposits have been given a notional value of $10m. Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2014

Dep

tho

fC

over

(Metr

es)

Significant value yetto be found below

25 metres

Significant value yetto be found below

25 metres

Deeper discoveriestend to be more

valuable

Deeper discoveriestend to be more

valuable

… That shouldn’t be a surprise, asthe deeper search-spaces haven’tbeen depleted yet

T1 Tier 2 Tier 3

Tier 1 & 2discoveries are

rare but valuable

Tier 1 & 2discoveries are

rare but valuable

Page 38: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Number and size of discoveries by depthPrimary copper discoveries in Western World: 1950-2013

0 250

0

1-25

26-50

51-100

101-150

151-200

201-300

>300

38

0 500 1000

1.9

4.4

3.4

3.2

1.7

10.0

11.2

3.3

0 5 10 15

Number Total Metal (Mt Cu) Average Size (Mt Cu/Discovery)

Note: Analysis based on detailed analysis of 507 primary copper discoveries > 0.1 Mt CuExcludes satellite discoveries in existing camps. Excludes undersea deposits Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2014

Dep

tho

fC

over

(Metr

es)

Most copperdiscoveries were under

<25 metres of cover

Most copperdiscoveries were under

<25 metres of cover

… deeper discoveriestend to be larger

… deeper discoveriestend to be larger

Page 39: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Value of discoveries by depthPrimary copper discoveries in Western World: 1950-2013

39

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

0

1-25

26-50

51-100

101-150

151-200

201-300

>300

$0 $50 $100

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Unassigned

$107

$271

$269

$230

$150

$249

$542

$251

$0 $250 $500 $750

Project Quality (%Tier) Total Value (US $b) Average Value (US$M/Discovery)

CAUTION: Values are indicative/approximate only.Analysis based on an average Expected Value (at the time of Discovery) of a Tier 1, 2 , 3 deposit of US$2000m,$500m and $100m respectively. Unassigned deposits have been given a notional value of $10m. Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2014

Dep

tho

fC

over

(Metr

es)

Significant value yetto be found below

50 metres

Significant value yetto be found below

50 metres

Apart from theoutcropping deposits

value doesn’t varywith depth

Apart from theoutcropping deposits

value doesn’t varywith depth

… That shouldn’t be a surprise, asthe outcropping deposit space hasbeen depleted

T1 Tier 2 Tier 3

Tier 1 & 2discoveries are

rare but valuable

Tier 1 & 2discoveries are

rare but valuable

Page 40: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

6. DISCOVERY METHODS USED

There have been several innovations in the exploration tools used tomake discoveries in Australia

40

Page 41: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Trends in exploration methods

The preferred search method used varies by commodity type,

depth of cover and “scale”

41

Continental-Scale

Province-Scale

District-Scale

Project-Scale

Prospect-ScaleMinEx has carried out a detailedanalysis of the discovery history of 261deposits in Australia at these two scales

MinEx has carried out a detailedanalysis of the discovery history of 261deposits in Australia at these two scales

Page 42: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Primary search method used at the project-scaleGOLD discoveries (>0.1 Moz) in Australia: 1900-2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Serendipity

Prospector

Other

Visual

Conceptual/Geological

Geological Mapping

Extrapolated from KnownMineralisationGeochem

Geophysics + Geochem

Geophysics

42

Percentage of total discoveries

Note: Analysis based on detailed analysis of 134 gold projects (out of 244 known discoveries)

ie What method wasused to decide where

to peg the leases

ie What method wasused to decide where

to peg the leases

Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Page 43: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Primary search method used at the prospect-scaleGOLD discoveries (>0.1 Moz) in Australia: 1900-2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Serendipity

Prospector

Other

Drilling (Sole Method)

Visual

Conceptual/Geological

Geological Mapping

Extrapolated from KnownMineralisationGeochem

Geophysics + Geochem

Geophysics

43

Percentage of total discoveries

ie What method wasused to decide whereto drill the first hole

ie What method wasused to decide whereto drill the first hole

Note: Analysis based on detailed analysis of 134 gold projects (out of 244 known discoveries) Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Page 44: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Primary search method used at the project-scaleBASE METAL discoveries (>0.1 Mt Cu-eq) in Australia: 1900-2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Serendipity

Prospector

Other

Visual

Conceptual/Geological

Geological Mapping

Extrapolated from KnownMineralisationGeochem

Geophysics + Geochem

Geophysics

44

Percentage of total discoveries

ie What method wasused to decide where

to peg the leases

ie What method wasused to decide where

to peg the leases

Note: Analysis based on detailed analysis of 127 Cu+Ni+Zn+Pb projects (out of 185 known discoveries) Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Page 45: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Primary search method used at the prospect-scaleBASE METAL discoveries (>0.1 Mt Cu-eq) in Australia: 1900-2012

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Serendipity

Prospector

Other

Drilling (Sole Method)

Visual

Conceptual/Geological

Geological Mapping

Extrapolated from KnownMineralisationGeochem

Geophysics + Geochem

Geophysics

45

Percentage of total discoveries

Note: Analysis based on detailed analysis of 127 Cu+Ni+Zn+Pb projects (out of 185 known discoveries)

ie What method wasused to decide whereto drill the first hole

ie What method wasused to decide whereto drill the first hole

Source: MinEx Consulting © November 2013

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Insu

ffici

entD

ata

Page 46: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 46

The problem is that theeffectiveness of the

exploration techniquesdeteriorates with depth

Page 47: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Discovery method changes with depthPrimary gold discoveries >0.1 Moz in Australia: 1980-2013

47

22

43

21

8

4

5

0 metres

1-25 metres

26-50 metres

51-100 metres

101-200 metres

>200 metres

1.5

4.1

2.5

0.8

1.3

2.4

Number Average Size(Moz Au)

Discovery MethodDISTRICT-SCALE DRILL TARGET

As methods become lesseffective switch from

Geochem to GPx then todrilling (sole method)

As methods become lesseffective switch from

Geochem to GPx then todrilling (sole method)

Source: MinEx Consulting © March 2014

Page 48: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Summary / Conclusions [1/3]

1. Trends in exploration spend- Over the last decade exploration spend in Australia rose 4-fold (in A$ terms),reaching an all-time high of A$4.3 billion in June 2012

- Bulk minerals make up over half of current spending in Australia

- Increasing focus on Brownfield exploration (impact on the No. of Giants found)

2. Number of discoveries- On average 10 significant discoveries are made each year in Australia

- Discovery rates follow spending … but performance has declined in recentyears (due to higher input costs and over-focus on Brownfield targets)

3. Quality & value of the discoveries made- ¾ of the wealth created in Australia come from Tier 1 and 2 discoveries

- After adjusting for unreported discoveries, the value of discoveries foundexceeds the cost of finding them … ie exploration does add value !

- Australia is one of the top performing locations (40% better than average)

48

Page 49: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Summary / Conclusions [2/3]

4. Change in the depth of discovery- Have to progressively explore under deeper cover

- Average depth of cover is 83 metres in Australia. Canada, Western Europeand USA are even deeper

5. Amount of drilling required to make a discovery- Currently takes 500-600,000 metres to find a >=Moderate-sized deposit in

Australia (up from 400,000 metres back in 1980). Takes 5x as much drillingto find a Major-sized deposit and 40x as much for a Giant-sized deposit

- This translates into ~21 million metres (or 250,000 holes) to find a Giant.Drilling, while essential for discovery, is clearly a very inefficient activity !

- The average depth of drilling in Western Australia is 34 metres. 90% of theholes were under <96 metres. Good / high quality deposits are waiting to befound under deeper cover. For example, large parts of the Yilgarn has notbeen drilled below 300 metres. Think of deep cover as a new search-space

49

Page 50: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration

Summary / Conclusions [3/3]

6. Discovery methods used- The preferred search method used varies by commodity type,

depth of cover and “scale”

- As we go deeper, for base metals the use of GPx becomes more important

- At the prospect-scale, ~20% of the gold discoveries are associated with“Drilling as a sole method”

- The challenge is that, as we go deeper the discovery tools becomemore costly / less effective

50

RESOLVING THIS IS THE TASK OF THIS WEEK’S CONFERENCERESOLVING THIS IS THE TASK OF THIS WEEK’S CONFERENCE

Page 51: Challenges and opportunities for under-cover exploration ... - Schodde.pdf · MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Challenges and opportunities for

MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 51

Contact details

Richard SchoddeManaging DirectorMinEx ConsultingMelbourne, Australia

Email: [email protected]: MinExConsulting.com

Copies of this and other similarpresentations can be downloaded

from my website

Copies of this and other similarpresentations can be downloaded

from my website