challenges and potential for future mobility.€¦ · accidents / fatalities / injured persons /...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Thomas Helmer, BMW AG
SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017
VEHICLE AUTOMATION.CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE MOBILITY.
ROAD TRAFFIC: MANY INDIVIDUALS WITH LITTLE OVERALL MANAGEMENT.A SHORT GLANCE AT “TYPICAL” SITUATIONS…
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 2
Source: www.youtube.com/results?search_query=simple+solition+to+traffic
THE TECHNOLOGY OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING HAS A GREAT IMPACT FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND THE COMMUNITY.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 3
HIGH-PERFORMANCE-COMPUTING
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
COMPUTER VISION
SENSOR RAW DATA PROCESSING
SYSTEM SAFETY AND ROBUSTNESS
LESS ACCIDENTS
LESS PARKING LOT SEARCH
LESS CO2
MORE FLEXIBILITY
MORE SAFETY
MORE COMFORT
MORE TIME
VALIDATION METHODS
LESS TRAFFIC
Source: BMW
AIR AND ROAD TRAFFIC: THE SAFETY SITUATION.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 4
425*
* avg. 2012-2016, ICAO Safety Report 2017
Fatalities per year (worldwide)
1 250 000
WHO: Global status report on road safety 2015
Relative risk per bil. passenger miles (US)
Road traffic Air traffic
ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY BECOMES A GLOBAL CONCERN.STRONG DIFFERENCES AROUND THE WORLD REGARDING MODALITY AND RISK.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 5
Leading cause of death
Source: WHO: Global status report on road safety 2015
DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY. EXAMPLE GERMANY. SAFETY MEASURES SHOW EFFECT.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 6
Example Germany: Reduction of fatalities from 1970 (21332) to 2016 (3206) by approx. 6/7.
EU-28 2016: 25500 fatalities
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Accid
ents
/ f
ata
litie
s /
inju
red p
ers
ons / m
ileage (
1970 =
100%
)
Year
Time series accident data 1970 – 2016, Germany
Injured persons
Fatalities
Active Safety
Passive Safety
Mileage
Accidents
3206 (15%)
396666 (69%)
2,6 Mio. (186%)
766 bil. km (305%)
Source: Federal Statistical Office DESTATIS.de
US 2016: 37461 fatalities
Sources:
EU: European Commission - Fact Sheet, MEMO/17/675
US: 2016 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview, DOT HS 812 456
LEVEL OF AUTOMATION FOR ON-ROAD VEHICLES.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 7
HANDS ONEYES ON
NO AUTOMATION
HANDS ONEYES ON
DRIVER ASSISTANCE
HANDS TEMP. OFFEYES TEMP. OFF
PARTIAL AUTOMATION
HANDS OFFEYES OFF
HANDS OFFMIND OFF
HANDS OFFDRIVER OFF
FULL AUTOMATION
CONDITINAL AUTOMATION
HIGHAUTOMATION
No driver
No take over requestTake over requestLongitudinal
and lateral controlLongitudinal or lateral control
No active assistance system
Longitudinal orlateral control
Traffic control Awareness for take over No driver intervention
TASK OFTHE DRIVER
TASK OFTHE CAR
0 1 2 3 4 5
TRANSITION OF RESPONSIBILITY (control and guidance)HUMAN MACHINE
Source: SAE J3016, Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles.
ADVANCED DRIVER ASSISTANCE SYSTEMS.CURRENT STATE OF THE ART: BMW X3 SERIES.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 8
Source: BMW Nederland www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-ok6wnqQ1s
ADVANCED DRIVER ASSISTANCE IN THE NEW BMW 5 SERIES.COMFORT AND SAFETY AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 9
Crossing traffic warning rear / front
Active cruise control with Stop&Go function
Lane keeping assistant with active side collision protection
Steering and lane control assistant
Speed Limit Assist
Panorama View
Active Park Distance Control
Parking assistant
Top View
3D View
Lateral parking aidNight Vision
BMW Selective Beam
Remote Control Parking
Distance information
Rear collision prevention
Lane change warning
Lane departure warning
Speed limit and No Pass information
Approach control warning with braking function
Speed Limit Device
Wrong Way Assist
Crossroad Assist
Top View Remote
Source: BMW
MORE TIME, NEW MOBILITY, INCREASED EFFICIENCY, DIFFERENT CITIES, ...
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 10
Source (t.l. clockwise): autovolts.com; globalspec.com; wordpresscom; 2025ad.com; inserts (t.l. clockwise): techmalak.com; scania.com; abc7news.com
ROAD AND AIR TRAFFIC. NEW CONCEPTS COULD EXTEND ROAD TRAFFIC TO THE THIRD DIMENSION.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 11
Source (l. to. r.): Daimler; theverge.com
ROAD AND AIR TRAFFIC.DIFFERENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS AND DIFFERENT OPERATORS.
− Highly trained personnel
− Dedicated flight corridors
− Exclusive infrastructure / overall traffic control
− …
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 12
− Inhomogeneous driver groups (experienced / inexperienced, old / young, etc.)
− Mixed infrastructure with other traffic participants
− No overall traffic management or control
− …
Source (l. to. r.): BMW, shutterstock.com; eurocontrol.int; lufthansa.com
THE “OPTIMAL” LEVEL OF AUTOMATION DEPENDS ON THE DRIVING TASK.ACTIVATION MODEL FOLLOWING YERKES / DODSON (1908).
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 13
Difficulty of driving task
Performanceof the driver
Delegation
of tasksSafety
functions
Information /
foresight
ideal„Bored out“ „Burned out“
Need ofassistance
or automation
OPTIMUM
Requirements≙
Performance
UNDERLOAD OVERLOAD
BOREDOM STRESSCONTROL,
FLOW
Maximum performance by the human can be reached at a medium level of strain.
Source: based on http://www.viriya.net/jabref/the_relation_of_strength_
of_stimulus_to_rapidity_of_habit-formation.pdf
ASSISTANCE AIMS AT THE COMBINATION OF ADVANTAGES OF BOTH HUMAN AND MACHINE IN THE DRIVER-VEHICLE SYSTEM.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 14
No susceptibility to fatigue, stress or distraction
Objective measuring and assessment of physical values
such as distance, relative speed or acceleration
Fast pre-programmed reaction with high level of precision
Precise and reliable repetition of pre-defined processes
Flexibility to respond to the situation as required
Rapid decision-making, even in highly complex situations
Forward-thinking responses / anticipation
Rapid interpretation of (previously unknown)
situationsStrongly developed ability to
improviseInstantaneous ethical
assessment of situations
Source: BMW
Continuous improvement of collective knowledge by
learning
THE HUMAN IS NOT MADE FOR MONITORING TASKS.GENERAL EFFECTS OF AUTOMATION ARE WELL KNOWN.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 15
The more advanced a control system is, so the more crucial may be the contribution of the human operator (Bainbridge, 1983)
Humans are not built for monitoring tasks (Reason et al. 1990)
Drivers engage more in non-driving related tasks when driving automated (Carsten et al. 2012)
Monitoring drivers are less likely to intervene (Gold et al. 2013)
Sourc
e p
ictu
re:
BM
W
99% boredom and 1% panic fear (Kraiss, 1994)
SPECIFIC CHALLENGES OF VEHICLE AUTOMATION.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 16
Certification
Acceptance
Reliability
Safety
Security
Situation awareness
Mode awareness
Loss of skill
Take over process
Risks of automation
Liability
Test / validation
Ethics
Overreliance in automation
Trust
INCREASED VEHICLE AUTOMATION.WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 17
Sourc
e: B
MW
DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS.DRIVING SPEED & SCENARIO COMPLEXITY AS KEY FACTORS.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 18
Driving Speed
L2:e.g. BMW 7&5-series, today
L3/L4:1st Generation (L3) >2020
2nd Generation (L4)
L4/5:1st Generation >2025(Phase-In >2020)
Com
plex
ity T
raff
ic S
cena
rio
HighwayTravelling Comfort & Safety
Next Generation?
Inner CityNew Mobility Concepts
RuralFlow & Safety
Source: BMW
ONE POSSIBLE FUTURE:ADEQUATE ASSISTANCE AND AUTOMATION IN EVERY SITUATION.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 19
Sourc
e: B
MW
CONCLUSION.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Seite 20
1Automation promises new business models, increased traffic safety, and improved traffic efficiency.
2Understanding the driver, traffic situations and related driving tasks is essential for successful driver assistance and automation.
3Increasing automation poses new challenges to human-machine-interaction as well as testing & validation of functions.
4The successful introduction and full realization of potentials of automation in road traffic depends on a comprehensive knowledge of human, technology, and traffic.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 21
IMPLICATIONS FOR CONDITIONAL AUTOMATION (L3).THE DRIVER WILL REMAIN A CRITICAL PART.
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The driver remains the fallback level for scenarios the automation is not able to handle. Driver performance is therefore crucial for ensuring safety for highly automated vehicles.
If a system limit is encountered, the driver must take over control within a given period.
TAKE OVER SCENARIO FOR L3 HIGHWAY PILOT.
Vehicle Automation | SESAR Innovation Days | 11.2017 Page 23
Source: BMW