challenges facing the future of education...future of education inform strategic thinking policy...

CHALLENGES FACING THE FUTURE OF EDUCATION

Tracey Burns17 March 2020Edinburgh

2

NOT a statistical compendium or

prescription of policy

Intention and purpose

Stimulate reflection about the

future of education

Inform strategic thinking

Policy makers

• Ministry retreats, strategic

thinking workshops

Researchers/teacher

educators

• Inclusion in teacher

education curriculums,

education futures

Students

• Tool in classrooms,

strategic thinking for

associations

Educational practitioners

• Futures thinking, global

mega-trends

Trends Shaping Education

3

1

Shifting global

gravityModern culturesPublic matters Security

Living longer,

living better

5432

Five thematic chapters:

Trends Shaping Education 2019

GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEINGMODERN

CULTURES

Chapter 1

Global mobility

Research & Development

Global markets

Sustainable consumption

Wealth & Inequality

Growing middle class

Shifting global wealth

Air transport

R&Dspending

E-waste

Artificial Intelligence

Migration

Global value chains

Economic power is shifting east. Of the next 1 billion

entrants to the middle class, what percentage will come

from Asia?

• 30

• 60

• 75

• 90

Shifting global gravity

The rise of the global middle class

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

195

1

195

7

196

3

196

9

197

5

198

1

198

7

199

3

199

9

20

05

20

11

20

17

20

23

20

29

He

ad

co

un

t (b

illi

on

s)

% o

f w

or

ld p

op

ula

tio

n

World middle class share of world population World middle class World population

Estimates of the size of the global middle class, percentage of the world population (left axis) and headcount

(right axis), 1950-2030

Source: Kharas, H. (2017), The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class, an update,

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/global_20170228_global-middle-class.pdf. Kharas, H.

(2010), The emerging middle class in developing countries, https://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf. Figure 1.2

More people on the move

-30

20

70

120

170

220

270

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

Mil

lio

ns

of

pe

op

le

Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania

Estimates of international migrant stock by region of destination, 1990-2017

Source: United Nations (2017), "International migrant stock: The 2017 revision" (database),

www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/. Figure 1.5

The growth in AI technologies

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Nu

mb

er

of

pa

ten

ts

Number of patents in artificial intelligence technologies, 1991-2015

Source: OECD (2017), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2017: The digital transformation,

http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264268821-en. Figure 1.10

Chapter 2


CULTURES

Civic participation

Inequality

Group rights

Rurality

Multiculturalism

Income gap

Online news

Sovereignty referendums

Employment

City networks

Tax havensDemographics

Sovereignty

Traditional measures of civic participation are declining

across the OECD. In the last 20 years, which OECD country

has seen the largest decline in voter turnout?

• Chile

• France

• Greece

• Australia

Public Matters

Declining voter turnout

Change in average voting rates per decade in OECD countries, 1990s and 2010s

Source: International IDEA (2018), International Voter Turnout Database, www.idea.int.

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

stra

lia

Lu

xe

mb

ou

rg

Be

lgiu

m

Den

ma

rk

Sw

eden

Tu

rkey

Ice

lan

d

No

rwa

y

Au

stri

a

Net

her

lan

ds

New

Zea

lan

d

Ita

ly

Ger

ma

ny

Sp

ain

Isra

el

OE

CD

av

era

ge

Irel

an

d

Fin

lan

d

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Hu

ng

ary

Ca

na

da

Est

on

ia

Gre

ece

La

tvia

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c

Slo

va

k R

epu

bli

c

Slo

ve

nia

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ko

rea

Ja

pa

n

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Mex

ico

Lit

hu

an

ia

Po

lan

d

Fra

nce

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Ch

ile

% o

f v

oti

ng

tu

rn

ou

t

1990s 2010s

Figure 2.3

Increasing online information

Individuals using the Internet (last 3 months) for reading/downloading the news online, 2005 and 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% o

f In

ter

ne

t u

se

rs

2005 2017

Figure 2.4

Source: OECD (2018), ICT Access and Usage by Households and Individuals (database). https://stats.oecd.org/.

Growing inequality

Trends in real household incomes by percentile, OECD average, 1985-2015

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

198

5

199

0

199

5

20

00

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bottom 10% Mean Median Top 10%

Source: OECD (2018), A Broken Social Elevator? How to Promote Social Mobility,

https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264301085-en.Figure 2.1

Index 1985 = 1

Chapter 3


CULTURES

Nuclear testing

Household debt and savings

CyberEconomic

National Environmental

Health

Antibiotic resistance

Road safety

Security experts

Natural disasters

Job security

War and conflict

In 2018, what was the most common reason for data

records lost in cyber breaches?

• Accidently published

• Inside job

• Poor security

• Lost/stolen device

Security in a Risky World

Growing cyber risk

World’s biggest data breaches by method of leak (billions of records lost), 2004-2018

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Re

co

rd

s l

os

t (b

illi

on

s)

accidentally published hacked inside job lost / stolen device or media poor security

Figure 3.3

Source: Information is Beautiful (2018), “World’s biggest data breaches: Selected loses bigger than 30.000

records”, https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/worlds-biggest-data-breaches-static/.

Natural disasters increasing worldwide

Number of recorded events, 1900-2018

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

190

0

190

5

1910

1915

192

0

192

5

193

0

193

5

194

0

194

5

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Nu

mb

er

of

ev

en

ts

Figure 3.7

Source: EM-DAT (2018), The Emergency Events Database - Université catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CRED,

www.emdat.be.

Rising debt

Household savings (% of disposable income, left axis) and household debt (% of disposable income, right axis),

OECD average, 1970-2016

Source: OECD (2018), OECD National Accounts Statistics (database), https://stats.oecd.org/.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

197

0

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

De

bt

as

% o

f d

isp

os

ab

le i

nc

om

e

Sa

vin

gs

as

% o

f d

isp

os

ab

le i

nc

om

e

Savings (left axis) Debt (right axis)

Figure 3.9

Chapter 4


CULTURES

Dementia

Pensions “Elderhood”Work

Ageing:New challengesSilver economy

Healthy ageing

Medical advancements

Active retirees

Civic engagement

Purchasing power

Retraining / reskilling

Digital fraud

Between 1970 and 2017, the average number of years

people spent in retirement increased by how much?

• 5 years

• 7 years

• 10 years

• 13 years

Living Longer, Living Better

Years in retirement increasing

Average across all OECD countries, 1970-2016

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 1985 2000 2015

15 years on average in 1970


Women

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 1985 2000 2015



Men

Time in retirement Retirement age

Source: OECD (2017), Pensions at a Glance 2017: OECD and G20 Indicators,

https://doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2017-en.

Dementia rates growing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45M

exic

o

Tu

rkey

Slo

va

k R

epu

bli

c

Ko

rea

Po

lan

d

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c

Isra

el

Hu

ng

ary

Irel

an

d

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Ch

ile

Slo

ven

ia

Icel

an

d

Ca

na

da

Lu

xem

bo

urg

New

Zea

lan

d

Au

stra

lia

La

tvia

Lit

hu

an

ia

Est

on

ia

OE

CD

av

era

ge

No

rwa

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Net

her

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Den

ma

rk

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Bel

giu

m

Au

stri

a

Sw

eden

Fin

lan

d

Sp

ain

Gre

ece

Fra

nce

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ger

ma

ny

Ita

ly

Ja

pa

n

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ind

on

esia

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Bra

zil

Russian…

Nu

mb

er

of

pe

op

le 2017 2037

People with dementia per 1 000 population (all ages), 2017 and estimates for 2037

Source: OECD (2018), Care Needed: Improving the Lives of People with Dementia,

https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264085107-en

Increasingly digital

Different Internet uses by age group (last 3 months), OECD average, 2008, 2013 and 2017

Figure 4.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017

...daily or almost every day ...for finding informationabout goods and services

...for seeking healthinformation

...for Internet banking

% o

f in

div

idu

als

us

ing

th

e I

nte

rn

et.

..

Younger adults (16-24) Adults (16-74) Older adults (55-74)

Source: OECD (2018), ICT Access and Usage by Households and Individuals (database), https://stats.oecd.org/.

Chapter 5

New family structures

Meat production

Gender in work

Ethical consumption

Modern familiesVirtual

becoming reality

The connected economy

Gig economy

Gender equity

Labour forceparticipation

Shareconomy

Electricvehicles

Youth empowerment


CULTURES

The marketplace for those demanding and supplying freelance work is now digitised. In 2005, the online platforms Upwork and Freelancer had 2.6 million users. Approximately how many were registered in 2016?

• 10 million

• 20 million

• 35 million

• 50 million

Modern Cultures

Growing virtual freelancing

Sources: OECD (2017), OECD Employment Outlook 2017, https://doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook-2017-en.

Figure 5.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mil

lio

n u

se

rs

Mass self-communication and creative expression

Individuals using the Internet (last 3 months) for uploading self-created content on sharing websites, 2008 and

2017

Figure 5.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

16-24 25-55 55-74

% o

f in

ter

ne

t u

se

rs

Age group

2008 2017

Source: OECD (2018), ICT Access and Usage by Households and Individuals (database),

https://stats.oecd.org/.

Fathers becoming more involved

Number of OECD countries granting paid paternity leave, 1975-2016

Source: OECD (2018),”Length of paid father-specific leave (indicator)”, OECD Gender Data Portal,

http://www.oecd.org/gender/data/. Figure 5.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er

of

co

un

trie

s

Thank you!

For more information:

www.oecd.org/education/ceri/trends-shaping-education

[email protected]

http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/trends-shaping-education

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