Challenges for international agricultural research

Sirkka Immonen

24 May, 2012

La Sapienza University

Structure of presentation

International agricultural research: Public research for development, the CGIAR Demand-led research; forecasting future needs Major challenges for agricultural research Characteristics of research Impact pathways Results and impact

International Agricultural Research for Development Institutions

Centers of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)

Others conduct international research with development aims: several universities, large national programs, such as French, Australian, Dutch, Brazilian

In partnership with: National and regional research systems Development agencies Non governmental organizations

International Agricultural Research for Development Research with a mission Public research, addresses problems that

apply across borders are public goods national systems cannot address private sector does not address

Examples: plant breeding for tropical and poor regions research on natural resources research on livestock and pastures research to support policy formulation

Consultative Group on International Agricultural ResearchSystem of Centers, their partners and donors

Objectives (relevant for the Millennium Development Goals) : Reducing rural poverty Increasing food security Improving

nutritionand health

Sustainableuse of naturalresources

Gender equality

underlines objectives

Photo by John Ocambo (CIAT)

CGIAR Research Centers

IPGRI=Bioversity International

Responds to demand

Funding: Governments, foundations, private sector,

development agencies

Beneficiaries: Developing countries: national research,

farmers, consumers, rural and urban poor International research community

Research for development

What are CGIAR Centers good at? High quality research for problems on the ground Multidisciplinary research Located in developing countries with a network of

research locations Bringing partners together from best universities and

national programs in poorest countries Honest brokers, generates

free public goods Holders of world’s largest

genetic resources collections

Photo by Neil Palmer (CIAT)

How to decide what research? International public goods

Can be used without exhausting them Some one’s use is not away from another Applicable across borders

Where there is comparative advantage Universities do basic science Private sector chooses market opportunities National institutions have national interests

Where problems can be addressed through agricultural research

Forecasting future for agricultureWorld Agriculture Development report 2008 Agriculture is a fundamental instrument for

sustainable development and poverty reduction In agriculture-based countries (Africa) agriculture is

the basis for economic growth Agriculture contributes to development; it provides

(i) economic activity (ii) livelihood for ~86% of rural people (iii) environmental services

Heterogeneity defines the rural world Issues: land, water, education, health

Characteristics of three country types  Agriculture-

based countries

Transforming

countries

Urbanized countrie

s

Rural populations (million), 2005 417 2220 225

Share of population rural (%), 2005

68 63 26

GDP per capita (2000 USD), 2005 379 1068 3489

Share of agriculture in GDP (%), 2005

29 13 6

Annual agricultural growth, 1993-2005 (%)

4 2.9 2.2

Annual non-agricultural GDP growth, 1993-2005 (%)

3.5 7 2.7

Number of rural poor (millions), 2002

170 583 32

Rural poverty rate, 2002 (%) 51 28 13

Source: The World Bank, 2008 World Development Report

Forecasting future for agricultureUK government foresight report 2010

A. Balancing future demand and supply sustainably

B. Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food prices

C. Achieving global access to food and ending hunger

D. Managing the contribution of the food system to the mitigation of climate change.

E. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world

The difficult equations

Estimated long term trends: population increase (9 billion by 2050) global food demand will double by 2050 rural poverty increasing in SSA and South Asia

(reduced in East Asia and Pacific) competition for agricultural land (biofuels) expansion is threat

to biodiversity agriculture has

large environmentalfootprint

Major challenges for AR4D

POVERTY Poverty pockets in sub-Saharan Africa

and South Asia Impact through better productivity of

crops, animals, fish and forestry products, value chains

Impact through better market access, credit, inputs, and policies

In agricultural communities empowerment, risk management and innovation is needed

Income from agriculture for producers, land-less laborers and other groups

Major challenges for AR4D

FOOD SECURITY ~950 million people under

nourished (2010) 27-28 percent of children in

developing countries underweight or stunted

Impact through more agricultural product of crops, animals and fish

Price fluctuations of agricultural commodities is a challenge

Locally diversity in agricultural enterprises and products buffers against shocks

Major challenges for AR4D

HEALTH & NUTRITION Calories Micronutrient malnutrition

vitamin A, zinc, iron etc. Empowerment of women Access to nutritious diets

animal foods, pulses, fruits and vegetables Children’s nutritional status Biofortified staple foods

Photo by E. Gotor (Bioversity International)

Major challenges for AR4D

ENVIRONMETAL THREATS Ecosystem changes due to dramatic increase in

need for food, water, timber, fuel and fire wood Agriculture competes for scarce water resources Soil degradation and erosion, salinisation Encroachment to new areas (wet lands, tropical

forests) Carbon emissions Loss of biodiversity Agrochemical use

Major challenges for AR4D

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY Low national investments on agriculture, science

and technology Poor institutions (research, extension, education) Insufficient national research capacity High turn-over Limited succession planning Photo AWARD Fellowships Program

Research capacity in developing countries

Developing Country Scientist Numbers

China 80,000

India (2003) 16,700

SSA (2008) 12,100

Brazil (2006) 5,400

Source: ASTI and: Chen, K. Z., and Y. Zhang. 2010.

Investment in agriculture R&D is lowTotal public agricultural R&D expenditures by region

1981 and 2000 (% GDP)

Region 1981 2000

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.84 0.72

Asia & Pacific 0.36 0.41

China 0.41 0.4

India 0.18 0.34

West Asia and North Africa 0.61 0.66

Latin America & Caribbean 0.88 1.15

Brazil 1.15 1.81

Developing countries 0.52 0.53

Developed countries 1.41 2.36

Source: The World Bank; 2008 World Development Report

New opportunities

New science and technology life sciences (genomics) geographic information

systems informatics and communication

technology

New organization multi-disciplinary and integrated research innovation systems participatory research donor harmonization

Photo by ICARDA

Characteristics of research

Research needs to discover new things and explore the unexplored

Research is risky and unpredictable Unexpected results and failures are valuable Needs to be transparent Thrives from critique Scientific discoveries lead to innovation and

adaptation

Knowledge Flows in Agriculture

Scientists(formal research)

Farmers(indigenous knowledge, informal research)

GlobalActivities

LocalActivities

State National International Global

Kno

wle

dge

flow

1National & StateResearch Systems

2International Research

Centers and System

4International Private

Voluntary Organizations*

3National/State/Local•Extension Services•Non-governmental

organizations

RegionalKnowledge flow

Source: Dana Dalrumple, USAID

Time (years)

Ad

op

tio

n r

ate

0 30

Upstream research conduct

On farm evaluation

Release

Characteristics of ag research: Long lag times

Outcome measured here

reflects performance...

backthen!

Source: D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011

Characteristics of ag research: Long and indirect causal chains(Adapted from D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011)

Activity (building a bridge)

Output (a bridge)

Outcome (reduction in travel

time from use of bridge)

Activity (development of

principles for

SSNM)

Output(recommendation

s for specific farms)

Outcome (change

in fertilizer management on

farm)

Outcome (higher fert use efficienc

y)

Impact (higher income for poor

producers)

Outcome

(NARS validati

on)

Activity (development of decision support tools)

Outcome (on farm testing

by partners)

Outcome (embodiment in mobile phone

services)

Outcome (changes

to extension system

policy)

Lower food

prices for the poor

Impact (higher

incomes from better

market prices)

Development project 3-5 years, local impact

Activity (identification of a

gene)

Output (Markers)

Outcome (use of

markers by

NARS)

Output (NARS

varieties)

Outcome (national

seed producti

on)

Outcome (farmer

adoption)

Outcome (reduced production risk)

Outcome (intensifi

ed management)

Impact (higher

income for poor

producers)

Lower food

prices for the poor

Genetic improvement 20-30 years

Resource management research 10-20 years

Research monitoring on impact pathway

Priority assessment

Pro

du

ct

Pro

gra

mT

hem

e

Impact evaluation studies that

measure the effect size

Studies that track the scale of outcome

Input Output Outcome Impact

Impact assessment

(effect size * scale)

Refined theory of change

Monitoringprogress &

performance

Product evaluation

Time

Sca

leP

ilot

/ Sm

all

Glo

bal

Source: D. Raitzer, IRRI, 2011

Impact pathway–Aquatic agriculture systems

Source: CGIAR Research Program 1.3 “Aquatic Agriculture Systems”

Product design and demand Constraints for enhanced use Constraints for scale-out

Targeting R4D opportunities

Outputs

Research priority setting

Germplasm, genes, methods

Varieties, hybrid with desired traits

Crop/pest mngt technologies

Effective seed and input delivery

Improved market access

Post harvest, market access

Accelerating adoption

Sustainable crop management

Variety and hybrid development

Genetic resources & tools

Research outcomes

NARS use results for prioritization

Germplasm etc used by breeders

Formal and informal sees systems

Delivery of crop and pest mngt options

Improved knowledge flow among partners

Value added products piloted

Development outcomes

Appropriate technologies

Swift variety turn-over

Farmers benefit from new cultivars

Saving water and nutrients, reduced pest damagesoil health

Opportunities to market value added products

Improved value chains, knowledge platforms

Impacts

Less poverty

Increased food security

Improved health and nutrition

Increased system resilience & sustainability

Value added products, processes

Strategic objectives

Enabling environment – institutions, policies, governance, infrastructure

Impact pathway – Dryland cereal program

Source: Adapted from CGIAR Research Program 3.6 “Dryland cereals”

Results from agricultural researchHistoric impact: Green RevolutionNobel Peace Prize 1970to Normal Borlaug

Results from agricultural researchImproved varieties (examples in Africa)

Cassava, fastest growing food staple in Africa The New Rice for Africa (NERICA) Beans, ~10 million farmers, mostly women, grow

new bean varieties developed through participatory breeding

Biological control of pests: parasitic wasp to control

cassava mealy bug in AfricaSoil management:

zero tillage (in LAC, Asia); legumes to improve soil fertility (Africa)

Photo by FAO Regional Vegetable IPM Programme

Cases of successful research in CGIARInternational Institute for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Research to confirm high and low amylase in

cassava roots Discovery of amylase-free mutant Interest for industrial use of starch Public-private partnership Contract farming cassava

as cash crop Income opportunities

for smallfarmers

Photo by Thomas Sankara

Cases of successful research in CGIARInternational Potato Institute Research and breeding to increase Vit A content in

sweetpotato (orange flesh) Research to explore farmers willingness to pay for

high quality planting materials Incentives for privatevine

multipliers Benefits to vine producers,

crop producers Health benefits to consumers

Photo by ILRI

Cases of successful research in CGIARInternational Rice Research Institute Alternate wetting and drying technology Research on AWD

water and nutrientinteractions

optimizing ADW scenarios role of policies and

infrastructure participatory testing, training

15-30% irrigation water saved Large scale diffusion of AWD

Photo by IPSWAR

Cases of successful research in CGIARCenter for International Forestry Research Research on forest certification for sustainable

management Criteria and indicators template with

principles and criteria on policy, ecology, social conditions, biodiversity and production

Adaptation to local contexts 1999 10 million ha forests certified worldwide 2006 79 million ha – most using the C&I

standards

Cases of successful research in CGIARWorld Agroforestry Center Research for replenishing soil fertility Tree fallows based on fast growing “fertilizer” trees On-farm testing and

dissemination Benefits:

Improved food security(maize-based systems)

Better soil health More fuel Increased carbon sequestration

Photo by World Agroforestry Center