challenges for research - fapesp
TRANSCRIPT
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Challenges for Research
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Contact Information
Jerry L. HatfieldLaboratory Director National Laboratory for Agriculture and the
EnvironmentDirector, Midwest Climate Hub2110 University BlvdAmes, Iowa 50011515-294-5723515-294-8125 (fax)[email protected]
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Framework For Agronomic
Systems
Inputs
Climate
Soil
Genetics
Nutrients
Water
Cropping
Systems
Corn-
Beans
Wheat-
Sunflower
Cotton-
Sorghum
Outputs
Grain
Forage
Env. Goods
Nitrate
Sediment
GHGās
Mitigation Strategies Adaptation Strategies
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Climate Factors
Inputs
Temperature
Precipitation
Solar radiation
Carbon dioxide
Direct
Growth
Phenology
Yield
Indirect
Insects
Diseases
Weeds
Soil is the underlying factor as a
resource for nutrients and water
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Climate vs Weather
Climate determines where we grow a
crop
Weather determines how much we
produce
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Maize Yields
Maize Production
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Gra
in Y
ield
(M
g h
a-1
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
United States
Mexico
China
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Wheat Yields
Wheat Grain Production
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Gra
in Y
ield
(M
g h
a-1
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
United States
Mexico
China
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ProjectionsāAssuming no change in population growth, food consumption patterns and food
waste management, the following production increases must take place by 2050:
cereals production must increase by 940 million tonnes to reach 3 billion tonnes;
(45% increase)
meat production must increase by 196 million tonnes to reach 455 million
tonnes; (77% increase)
and oilcrops by must increase by 133 million tonnes to reach 282 million tonnes
(89% increase) (Alexabdratos and Bruinsma, 2012).
It is also estimated that global demand for crop calories will increase by 100
percent Ā±11 percent and global demand for crop protein will increase by 110
percent Ā±7 percent from 2005 to 2050 (Tilman et al. 2011). ā
Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050, the 2012
revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03, June 2012. Rome: Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (Available from
http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/ap106e/ap106e.pdf)
Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL. 2011. Global food demand and the sustainable
intensification of agriculture. PNAS 108(50):20260ā20264. Washington DC:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
(Available from http://www.pnas.org/content/108/50/20260)
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World Soybean Production
World Soybean Production
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yie
ld (
bu/A
)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Data points
Yield = -789.79 + 0.41 yr r2 = 0.95
By 2050, we will
have a 1066 kg/ha
deficit in
production
compared to
projected
requirements
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Corn Grain Production
World Corn Production
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yie
ld (
bu/A
)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Data points
Yield = -1979.659 +1.02 yr r2 = 0.97
By 2050, we
have a 125
kg/ha deficit on
expected
production
compared to
required
production
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Wheat Grain Production
World Wheat Production
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yie
ld (
bu
/A)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Data points
Yield = -1233.819 + 0.639 yr r2 = 0.98
By 2050, we
have a 627.2
kg/ha excess in
production
estimates
compared to
projected
requirements
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Brazil Wheat
Brazil Wheat
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yie
ld (
kg
ha
-1)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Data points
Yield = -68839.61 + 35.35 Year r2=0.80
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Brazil Soybean
Brazil Soybean
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Yie
ld (
kg h
a-1
)
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Data points
Yield = -72874.7 + 37.62 Year r2=0.89
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Climate Factors
Inputs
Temperature
Precipitation
Solar radiation
Carbon dioxide
Direct
Growth
Phenology
Yield
Indirect
Insects
Diseases
Weeds
Soil is the underlying factor as a
resource for nutrients and water
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Carbon Dioxide Increases
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Present vs. Past
L. Ziska, USDA-ARS
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Present vs. Future
L. Ziska, USDA-ARS
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Carbon Dioxide-Water
Interactions
Two levels of CO2 and three soil
water levels on soybean
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CO2 and Temperature
Interactions
CO2 and temperature effects offset each other in a well-watered
situation; however, in water limited the positive effect of CO2 is
dominant
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Temperature Responses
Difference in temperature response between the vegetative and reproductive
stage of development for crops. The higher the temperature the faster the rate
of development
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Temperature
Crop
Optimum Temp (C)
Temp Range
(C)
Failure
Temp
(C)Veg Reprod Veg Reprod
Maize 34 18-32 18-22 35
Soybean 30 26 25-37 22-24 39
Wheat 26 26 20-30 15 34
Rice 36 33 33 23-26 35-36
Cotton 37 30 34 25-26 35
Tomato 22 22 22-25 30
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Nighttime Temperatures
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Impact of Warm Nights on Corn
and Soybean Productivity
Corn and Soybean Production Fields
Average Minimum Temperature (C)
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Net C
arb
on F
lux (
mg m
-2 s
-1)
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Corn
Soybean
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Temperature effects on Corn
Phenology
Corn Hybrid RX730
Days after Planting
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Tota
l C
olla
rs
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid DK 61-72
Days after Planting
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Tota
l C
olla
rs
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Corn Hybrid XL45A
Days after Planting
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Tota
l C
olla
rs
0
5
10
15
20
25
Normal Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal
chamber with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns.
1505 15805 5519 19130 4453 24774 kg ha-1
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Rhizotron ResultsY
ield
(g
/pla
nt)
Soil Water Levels Soil Water Levels
0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5
Normal Temp High Temp (reprod)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Combinations of water
and temperature
stresses cause
disruption in pollination
and grain-fill
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Current Reductions in Yields
Lobell et al. 2011 Science 333:616-620
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Current Mega-climate regimes
Future (2050) mega-
climate regimes
Move from a favorable to
unfavorable climate for
wheat
Ortiz et al. Agric Ecosys &
Environ. 2008. 126:46-58
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Temperature Effects on
Evaporation
Air Temperature (C)
0 10 20 30 40 50
Satu
ratio
n V
ap
or
Pre
ssu
re (
kP
a)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
e* = 0.61121 exp(17.502Ta/Ta + 240.97)
šøš =ššš(š0 ā šš )
šš+
ššš[šš š0 ā šš]
š¾(1 + šš
šš)šš
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Global Models Disagree on CO2 (Climate) Effect on ET
Response for future
RCP 8.5 HadGEM-ES:
Solid - CO2 rising
Dashed - no CO2
Global gridded
models (ISI-MIP)
vary in ET response
to climate change.
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Soil Water Use Rates
C orn W ater U se 2000
D ay of Year
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
Wa
ter
Us
e (
mm
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
C larion Spring N (100 kg/ha)
W ebster Spring N (100 kg/ha)
C larion Fall N (200 kg/ha)
W ebster Fa ll N (200 kg/ha)
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Crop Yield Variation
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Precipitation
Expect increased variation among years
Expect increased variation within a year
Expect increase in intensity of storms
and decreased frequency of storms
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Soil Water Availability
Organic Matter (%)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Ava
ilab
le W
ate
r C
on
ten
t (%
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Data Points
Sand, AWC = 3.8 + 2.2 OM
Silt Loam, AWC = 9.2 + 3.7 OM
Silty clay loam, AWC = 6.3 + 2.8 OM
Hudson, 1994
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Variation in Yields
Iowa County Maize Yields
Fraction of Potential Maize Yield
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Fre
quency
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Cass County
Floyd County
Story County
Washington County
The majority of the yield losses due to the weather are short-term stresses
20% of the yield
loss occurs 80%
of the time due
to water
availability
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NCCPI-AG
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Co
un
ty Y
ield
(g
m-2
)
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
Kentucky
Iowa
Nebraska
Kentucky (Double crop)
Soybean yields across the
Midwest
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NCCPI-AG
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Mean
Co
un
ty Y
ield
(g
m-2
)
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Kentucky
IowaY = 436.096 + 478.149X, r2 = 0.58***
Maize County Yields
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Implications
Climate will definitely impact crops both directly and indirectly
Soil management to increase water holding capacity and reduce E from ET will be a critical climate resilient factor
Quantify the indirect effects due to insects, diseases, and weeds
Quantify the effects of climate change on nutritional quality of grain, forage, and produce
We need to approach climate resilience and adaptation strategies as a G x E x M problem