challenges of globalization episode ii -...

Challenges of globalization ǀ 4 October 2018 (Session 2) ǀ 1

Challengesofglobalization·EpisodeII1. Bighistory.Bighistoryis“theapproachtohistoryinwhichthehumanpastisplacedwithintheframework

of cosmic history, from the beginning of the universe up until life on Earth today.” (Spier, p. ix) “In bighistory, any question can be addressed concerning how and why certain aspects of the present havebecomethewaytheyare.Unlikeanyotheracademicdiscipline,bighistoryintegratesallthestudiesofthepast intoanovel andcoherentperspective.” (Spier,p. xi) “The shortest summaryofbighistory is that itdealswiththeriseanddemiseofcomplexityatallscales.”(Spier,p.21)

2. Globalization inbighistory. Big history adopts a process approach to human history.With respect to

humanity, big history is concernedwith the identification and explanation ofmajor historical processes(andeventsandregularities,aswell)inhumanhistory.Globalizationisonesuchprocess.Thelistincludesthe agrarian revolution, the emergence of civilizations, state formation, the industrial revolution andindustrialization…

3. Fred Spier’s big explanation of big history. “… the energy flowing through matter within certain

boundaryconditionshascausedboththeriseandthedemiseofallformsofcomplexity.”(Spier,p.21)Spier,Fred(2010):Bighistoryandthefutureofhumanity,Wiley‐Blackwell,Chichester,UK.4. A general theory of organized systems based on evolution. Developments in several scientific

disciplinessuggestthattheemergence,development,evolutionandpossibledemiseoforganizedsystems(physical,biological,socialsystems)sharestrongsimilarities(Chaisson,p.ix).Theprospectofunificationinthestudyofthesedifferentdomainsappearsplausible.Evolutionarythinkingisareasonablecandidateforconductingtheunification,sothatitcanbeappliedaswelltopre‐biologicalandpost‐biologicaldomains.

5. Cosmicevolution.“…cosmicevolutionisthestudyof

change–thevastnumberofdevelopmentalgenerativechanges that have accumulated during all time andacross all space, from big bang to humankind.”(Chaisson, p. 2) Cosmic evolution is not presumedteleologicaloranthropocentric:thereisnoimplicationof progression or directedness in the arrow of time.Humansarenottheendproductofcosmicevolution.

Illustrationofcosmichistory:Thearrowoftimeandsalientfeaturesincosmichistory,Chaisson,

Fig.1,p.4

6. Chance (randomness) and necessity (regularity) as instruments of change that lead to a rise in

complexity. “Nature isnotcleanandclear,notsimpleandequilibrated,not ‘blackandwhite,’butratherlocally complexwith shadesof grey throughout; chancemixeswithnecessity, reductionismwithholism,physicswithbiology”(Chaisson,p.223).

Chaisson,EricJ.(2001):Cosmicevolution:Theriseofcomplexityinnature,HarvardUniversityPress,Cambridge,MAandLondon,UK.7. EricChaisson’s seven agesof the cosmos. (1) Particle epoch (‘simplicity fleeting’). (2) Galactic epoch

(‘hierarchyofstructures’).(3)Stellarepoch(‘forgesforelements’).(4)Planetaryepoch(‘habitatsforlife’).(5)Chemicalepoch(‘matterplusenergy’).(6)Biologicalepoch(‘complexitysustained’).(7)Culturalepoch(‘intelligencetotechnology’).


8. Complexityandpowerdensities.EricChaissonhasidentifiedacorrelationbetweencomplexity level inknownentitiesanditsassociatedpowerdensities(energythatflowsthroughanamountofmassperperiodoftime);seechartimmediatelybelowontheleft(ontheverticalaxis,energyratedensityinwatts/gram;onthehorizontalaxis,timesinyears).Humanityisresponsibleforthelargestpowerdensitiesintheknownuniverse.

Chaisson(2005,p.294) Chaisson(2001,p.140)

Chaisson(2001,p.192) Chaisson(2001,p.205)

Chaisson,Eric(2005):Epicofevolution:Sevenagesofthecosmos,ColumbiaUniversityPress,NewYork.9. TheGoldilocks principle. As complexity can only emerge and exist under appropriate conditions and

circumstances,theGoldilocksprincipleexpressestheideathatallstablecomplexsystemsrequirecertainconditions to emerge and last; see Spier (2010, pp. 36‐40). In this respect, there are Goldilockscircumstances for a prosperous economy to arise and continue to exist; similarly, there are Goldilockscircumstancesforaglobalizedeconomy(ortheglobalizationphenomenon)toemergeandthrive.

10. Wavesofglobalization.Spier(2010,pp.168‐183)identifiesthreewavesofglobalization.

Firstwave.TriggeredbytheEuropeantransatlanticvoyagesattheendofthe15thcentury.Itwasmadepossiblebytheexploitationoftheenergystoredinwindsandoceancurrentsfortransportation.Asaresult,


Eurasia,Africa and theAmericabecame interconnected.A global tradenetworkdominatedbyEuropeanstateswasestablished.Modernsciencewascreatedduringthefirstwave.

Secondwave.Thesecondwaveistheoutcomeofindustrialization.TheIndustrialRevolution(endofthe18thcenturyandbeginningofthe19thcentury)wasmadepossiblebytheattainmentofanewcomplexitylevelbasedontheuseofmachinesandthesolarenergystoredinfossilfuels(coalandoil).TheGoldilocksconditions for industrialization initially favoured a single country: Great Britain. Its example wasnonethelessquickly followedbyothercountries.Thosecountries that industrializedsuccessfullyreachedunprecedentedwealthlevels,thateventuallyreachedmostofthepopulation.Apparently,thecontinuationofthesecondwaverequiredtheelitestosharethewealthcreatedbyindustrializationwiththerestofthepopulation. Affluence was no longer a privilege of elites. Modern science and technology spread tobusinessesandsociety.Aglobaldivisionoflabouralsodeveloped.

Thirdwave.Anongoingwaveassociatedwiththecurrentinformationtechnologyrevolution:electroniccomputers, global electronic networks, modern data technology… The term ‘globalization’ was coinedduringthiswave.Itisstilluncertainwhetherthethirdwavewillproduceglobalconvergence(instandardsofliving,culturalandpoliticalinstitutions,ideologies,worldviews,economicstructures…).

11. Globalization1.0,2.0,3.0. ThomasFriedmanoffers a similar typologyof globalizationepisodes. In this

account,stateswerethekeyagentsinGlobalization1.0(1492‐1800),whichhingedontheabilityofstatesto mobilize resources. Multinational companies were the key agents in Globalization 2.0 (1800‐2000),which involvedthe integrationof labourandgoodmarkets, first through improvements in transportandnextthroughimprovementsincommunications.IndividualsarethekeyagentsinGlobalization3.0(2000‐?),whoarebeingempoweredbyaconvergenceofdigitaltechnologies(personalcomputer,fiber‐opticcableandsoftware).Thisconvergencehascreatedatrulyglobalcommunitywhereanyonehasaccesstomassiveamountsofinformationandcanproducediscoveriesandinnovations.

Friedman,ThomasL.(2007):Theworldisflat3.0:Abriefhistoryofthetwenty‐firstcentury,Picador,NewYork.

12. Humanfuture.“Tomeandmanyothers,themostfundamentalquestionconcerningourhumanfutureiswhethertheinhabitantsofplanetEarthwillbeabletocooperateinachievingthegoalofreachingamoreorlesssustainablefutureinreasonableharmony,orwhetherthecurrentlargedivisionbetweenmoreandlesswealthypeople,aswellas theunequaldistributionofpowerwithinandamongsocieties,willplayhavocwithsuchintentions.”Spier(2010,p.203)

Cook,Earl(1971):“Theflowofenergyinanindustrialsociety,”ScientificAmerican225(3),134‐147.

13. TheTowlerprinciple.“Itisnotpossibletoextractenergyfromtheenvironmentwithouthavinganimpactontheenvironment.”(Towler,p.2)

Towler,BrianF.(2014):Thefutureofenergy,AcademicPress,London.


Primarysourcesofenergyintheworld,1800‐2010(Towler,p.7)

14. Anthropocene. TermcoinedbyecologistEugeneF.Stoermer in the early 1980s.ItdesignatesadivisionoftheEarth’s history in whichhumanity has developed thecapacitytoaffectsignificantlyplanet Earth (its surface,atmosphere and livingenvironment). JamesLovelock suggests theAnthropocene is connectedwith the flow of energy and

started in1712,whenThomasNewcomeninventedanengine(thesteamengine)capableof, forthe firsttime,deliveringacontinuousflowofenergyaboveacertainthresholdforasufficientlylongperiodoftimeinaneconomicallysuccessfullyway.Lovelockholds:

that theAnthropocene is thestartofanewevolutionaryprocess(‘acceleratedevolution’) thatoperatesconsiderablyfasterthanevolutionbynaturalselection;

thathumanitywastheagentthatinnocentlyputinmotionapositivefeedbackprocessthat,byconsumingmuchoftheeasilyavailablefuel,wouldreleasetheEarth’sstoredenergy;

thathumanity failedtonotice that thisprocesswasanentirelynewformofevolutionwithunexpectedimpacts on population growth, technological innovation, economic growth, the climate… (“No one knewenoughintheeighteenthandnineteenthcenturiestorealizehowlargeachangeweweremaking”);

thatthisprocesshastransformedhumanityintotheintelligentpartofGaia(theEarthsystem),theideathattheEarthisalive,self‐regulatingplanet(GaiawastheGreekgoddessoftheEarth);and

thatsustainableretreatmaybepreferabletosustainabledevelopment,sincehumanitymaylosecontrolofatechnologicalworldinwhichinventionproceedsexponentially.

Lovelock,James(2014):Aroughridetothefuture,Overlook,NewYork.

15. A taleofgoodnews: thepossibilityofabundance.DiamandisandKotler (2012) claim that, thanks toprogress in exponentially growing technologies (such as robotics, computational systems, artificalintelligence, broadband networks, digital manufacturing, 3‐D printing, nanomaterials, human‐machineinterfaces,syntheticbiology,biomedicalengineering…)“forthe first timeinhistory,ourcapabilitieshavebeguntocatchuptoourambitions.Humanityisnowenteringaperiodofradicaltransformationinwhichtechnologyhasthepotentialtosignificantlyraisethebasicstandardsoflivingforeveryman,woman,andchildontheplanet.Withinageneration,wewillbeabletoprovidegoodsandservices,oncereservedforthewealthy few, toanyandallwhoneed them.Ordesire them.Abundance forall is actuallywithinourgrasp.” “Imagine a world of nine billion people with clean water, nutritious food, affordable housing,personalized education, top‐tier medical care, and nonpolluting, ubiquitous energy. Building this betterworldishumanity’sgrandestchallenge.”


16. Emergingforcesofabundance.(i)Exponentialtechnologies:networksandsensors;artificialintelligence;robotics;digitalmanufacturing;infinitecomputing;medicine;nanomaterials;nanotechnology…(ii)Thedo‐it‐yourself innovator:“smallgroupsofdedicatedDIYinnovatorscannowtackleproblemsthatwereoncesolelythepurviewofbiggovernmentsandlargecorporations.”(iii)Thetechnophilanthropists:“Thehigh‐tech revolution created an entirely new breed of wealthy technophilanthropists who are using theirfortunes to solve global, abundance‐related challenges.” The rich can, andwill, save theworld. (iv) Therisingbillion,thepoorestofthepoor.Thecombinationofaglobaltransportationnetworkwiththeinternet,microfinanceandwirelesscommunicationtechnologyaretransformingthebottombillionintoanemergingmarketforce:the‘world’sbiggestmarket’.

Diamandis,PeterH.;StevenKotler(2012):Abundance:Thefutureisbetterthanyouthink,FreePress,NewYork.

17. 100thingsmachineslearnttodoin2016.SebastianHuembfer,https://goo.gl/fgKVAu

18. ‘Artificialintelligenceisthenewelectricity.’QuotebyAndrewNg.JustasduringtheSecondIndustrialRevolutiontheeasyaccessibilitytoelectricitymademassproductionandassemblylinespossible,artificialintelligence is seen as the crucial element for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (tool to power othertechnologiesandbeanewpartofourlives).

Rouhiainen,Lasse(2018):Artificialintelligence:101thingsyoumustknowtodayaboutourfuture.

19. FourthIndustrialRevolution (or Industry4.0, termcoinedat theHannoverFair in2011).“Byenabling“smartfactories,”thefourthindustrialrevolutioncreatesaworldinwhichvirtualandphysicalsystemsofmanufacturinggloballycooperatewitheachotherinaflexibleway.Thisenablestheabsolutecustomizationofproductsandthecreationofnewoperatingmodels.Thefourthindustrialrevolution,however,isnotonlyaboutsmartandconnectedmachinesandsystems.Itsscopeismuchwider.Occurringsimultaneouslyarewaves of further breakthroughs in areas ranging from gene sequencing to nanotechnology, fromrenewables toquantumcomputing. It is the fusionof these technologiesand their interactionacross thephysical,digitalandbiologicaldomainsthatmakethefourthindustrialrevolutionfundamentallydifferentfrom previous revolutions. In this revolution, emerging technologies and broad‐based innovation arediffusingmuchfasterandmorewidelythaninpreviousones,whichcontinuetounfoldinsomepartsoftheworld.”(Schwab,2017)

20. Drivers of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. “All new developments and technologies have one keyfeature in common: they leverage the pervasive power of digitization and information technology.”(Schwab,2017)


21. WhyaFourthIndustrialRevolutionisunderway. (i) “Velocity: Contrary to the previousindustrialrevolutions,thisoneisevolvingatanexponential rather than linear pace.” (ii)“Breadth and depth: It builds on the digitalrevolution and combinesmultiple technologiesthat are leading to unprecedented paradigmshifts in the economy, business, society, andindividually.” (iii) “Systems impact: It involvesthe transformation of entire systems, across(and within) countries, companies, industriesandsocietyasawhole.”(Schwab,2017)

Percentage of respondents who expect that thespecific tipping point will have occurred by 2025,DeepShift—TechnologyTippingPointsandSocietalImpact, Global Agenda Council on the Future ofSoftware and Society, World Economic Forum,September2015.

Schwab,Klaus(2017):Thefourthindustrialrevolution,CrownBusiness,NewYork.

22. Onautomation(replacementofhumanjobsbymachines).Whatifmachineswilleventuallybeabletodomost jobspeople currentlydo (jobsperformedby typicalpeople are automated) and that thepeopledisplacedbymachineswillnotbeable to findanew job?MartinFordargues thawhen “fullautomationpenetrates the jobmarket to a substantial degree, an economydriven bymass‐market productionmustultimatelygointodecline.Thereasonforthisissimplythat,whenweconsiderthemarketasawhole,thepeoplewhorelyonjobsfortheirincomearethesameindividualswhobuytheproductsproduced.”Sincemachinesarenotconsumers, themorebusinessautomate jobs, thesmallerbecomes theconsumerbase;withareductioninthepotentialsetofconsumers,businessareforcedtocutmorejobs,soglobaldemandisfurthernarroweddown.Automation then sets inmotion adownward spiral process inwhich thedirectgains of automation in production are eventually neutralized by the indirect, global negative impact inconsumers’demand.

23. The Luddite fallacy fallacy? Named after theLuddite movement (start of the 19th century)advocatingmachinedestruction,theLudditefallacyrefers to the claim that machine automation isincapable of creating unemployment at a globalscale. The argument is that the unemploymentcaused by technological innovation (due to theworkers’outdatedskills) is temporary.Ontheonehand, automation reduces production costs and,therefore,prices, and that stimulates consumptiondemand. On the other, technological innovationallows new production activities to emerge and create new job opportunities. This line of reasoningencapsulatestheconventionaleconomicwisdomthattechnologicalimprovementsultimatelycreatejobs.


24. Humancapabilityvscomputertechnology.FordrepliestotheLudditefallacyviewthattheysufferfromafallacyofcompositioneffect.Specifically,thatviewrestsontwopremises:(i)machineshelpworkerstoraisetheirproductivity;and(ii)theaverageworkercanusemachinestoimprovetheirproductivity.“Whathappens when these assumptions fail? What happens when machines become workers—when capitalbecomes labor? It is important to note that such a change in the relationship between workers andmachineswillhaveaworldwideimpact.” “…technologicalprogresswillneverstop,andinfact,maywellaccelerate. While today jobs that require low and moderately skilled workers are being computerized,tomorrowitwillbejobsperformedbyhighlyskilledandeducatedworkers.”“TherealityisthattheLudditefallacy amounts to nothing more than a historical observation. Since things have worked out so far,economistsassumethattheywillalwaysworkout.”(Ford,pp.97‐99)

25. The technological singularity (Ray Kurzweil). The technological singularity is the hypothesis thatexponentialtechnologicalprogresswillbringadramaticchange(seismicconsequences)inhumanlifeandhumansocieties(transcendourbiologicallimitations).Kurzweiljustifiedthishypothesisonthegroundsofthe‘lawofacceleratingreturns.’Atechnologysubjecttothislawprogressesinproportiontoitslevel:thebetter the technology, themorerapidly itbecomesbetter.Moore’s law isofferedasanexample: it is theconjecture,byGordonMoore in the1960s, that computingpower(numberof transistors ina fixedarea,memory capacity) doubles every 1‐2 years. Murray Shanahan hypothesizes that the technologicalsingularitycouldbeprecipitatedbydevelopmentsinartificialintelligenceand/orneurotechnology.

26. Thesingularity isnear. “To thisday, I remainconvinced of this basic philosophy: no matter whatquandarieswe face—business problems, health issues,relationship difficulties, as well as the great scientific,social, and cultural challengesof our time—there is anideathatcanenableustoprevail.Furthermore,wecanfind that idea. And when we find it, we need toimplementit.”(Kurzweil,2005)“As the figure demonstrates, there were actually fourdifferentparadigms—electromechanical,relays,vacuumtubes, and discrete transistors—that showedexponential growth in the price‐performance ofcomputing long before integrated circuits were eveninvented.AndMoore'sparadigmwon'tbethelast.WhenMoore's Law reaches the end of its S‐curve, now

Moore’slaw


expected before 2020, the exponential growth will continue with three‐dimensional molecular computing,whichwillconstitutethesixthparadigm.”Kurzweil(2005)27. Economicparadoxof thesingularity: technologycouldkill itselfoff. “Ina freemarketeconomy, (…)

thereisnoincentivetoproduceproductsiftherearenoconsumerswithsufficientdiscretionaryincometopurchase those products. This is true even if intelligent machines someday become super‐efficientproducers. If average—or even exceptional—human beings are unable to find employmentwithin theircapabilities, then howwill they acquire the income necessary to create the demand that in turn drivesproduction? Ifweconsiderthesingularity inthiscontext, then is itreallysomethingthatwillnecessarilypushusforwardexponentially?Orcoulditinactualityleadtorapideconomicdecline?”(Ford,p.102)

Ford’s ‘scary graph’: value added (wage, averageincome)of theaverageworkeroperating theaveragemachine (Ford, p. 136: “As more machines begin torun themselves, the value that the average workeraddsbeginstodecline.”)

28. Wherearewenow?Ford’s(pp.224‐25)fourcases.

“…conventionalwisdom is correct, and the currentcrisisisjustanaberration.”

“…we are still far away from the point whereautomationisgoingtobecomeimportant.”

“…wearegoingtoseeincreasingeconomicimpacts,andwewillhavedifficulty inachievingsustained,long‐termgrowth.IfIhadtobet,Iwouldchoosethiscase.”

“Ifthingshavegottenawayfromus,thenwecould,infact,bemuchfurtheralongthanweimagine.Thiscouldperhapsbeexplainedbysuggestingthatconsumerborrowingmaskedtherealityofthesituation(…)andthatthecurrentcrisis isthebeginningofthereckoning(…)If this is thecase,weneedtoadoptnewpoliciesrapidly.”

Ford,MartinR. (2009):The lights in the tunnel:Automation,accelerating technologyand the economyof thefuture,AcculantPublishing.

Kurzweil,Ray(2005):TheSingularityisnear:Whenhumanstranscendbiology,Viking,NewYork.

Shanahan,Murray(2015):Thetechnologicalsingularity,MITPress,Cambridge,MAandLondon,England.

29. PeterFrase’sfutures.Thefutureworldcanendupdominatedbyeitherscarcityorabundance(reflectingecologicallimits)andalsobyeitherhierarchyorequality(reflectingthepoliticallimitsofaclasssociety).Equality+abundance=communism(‘fromeachaccordingtotheirability,toeachaccordingtotheirneed’).Hierachy+abundance=rentism(‘thetechniquestoproduceabundancearemonopolizedbyasmallelite’).Equality+scarcity=socialism(‘livewithinyourmeanswhileprovidingeveryonethebestlivespossible’).Hierachy+scarcity=exterminism(‘communismforthefew’and‘genocidalwaroftherichagainstthepoor’).

Frase,Peter(2016):Fourfutures:Lifeaftercapitalism,Verso,NewYork.

ABUNDANCE SCARCITY

EQUALITY Communism Socialism

HIERARCHY Rentism Exterminism

challenges of globalization episode ii -...

Documents