challenges of renewables for climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
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Challenges of Renewables for climate change
mitigationELEC5206: Sustainable Energy Systems
30th October 2013
Dr Jenny Riesz
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Who am I?
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Overview
What makes renewables different?
• Managing greater uncertainty and variability
• Managing non-synchronous generation
• Managing SRMC = $0/MWh
Policy mechanisms
• Renewable Energy Target
• Carbon Pricing
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What makes renewables different?
4
Variability&
Uncertainty
SRMC = $0/MWh Non-synchronous
WindSolar PV
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Managing Variability & Uncertainty
Variability & Uncertainty
SRMC = $0/MWh
Non-synchronous
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Variability and Uncertainty
• Wind and demand variability in West Denmark (Jan 2005)
Holttinen, H., Meibom, P., Orths, A., Hulle, F. v., & Lange, B. (2009). Design and operation of power systems with large amounts of wind power. Final report, Phase one 2006-08. IEA Wind Tas 25.
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Optimising generation mix
Proportion of variablerenewables
System cost Generation capital cost
Integration cost(Voltage/Frequency
management)
Least cost mix (50%?)
0% variable 100% variable
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Fast ramping
Short start-up /shut-down
times
Low minimum
loads
With more variability and more uncertainty we need more system
flexibility.
Some comes from the normal operation of the electricity market
(if well designed).
Some comes from dedicated “reserves” (Frequency Control
Ancillary Services)
Flexibility
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• Most power systems have significant flexibility…
• But market rules may inhibit access to it
IEA. (2011a). Harnessing Variable Renewables. International Energy Agency.
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Designing electricity markets for variability
• To more cost effectively integrate more variable renewables, systems need to be:
BIGGER FASTER&
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Bigger: Greater geographical diversity
• Connecting renewables in more locations increases “smoothing” due to geographical diversity
• Therefore, “bigger” grids, coordinated together, reduce integration costs
Decrease in forecast error for aggregated wind due to spatial smoothing
Based upon results of measured power
production of 40 wind farms in Germany
(RMSE: Root mean square error)
Holttinen, H., Meibom, P., Orths, A., Hulle, F. v., & Lange, B. (2009). Design and operation of power systems with large amounts of wind power. Final report, Phase one 2006-08. IEA Wind Tas 25.
Integrating over a larger area means lower uncertainty
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What is a “Fast” market?
Short dispatch interval
Short delay from gate closure to dispatch
Fully system is re-dispatched frequently
Generators submit offers
Optimal dispatch is calculated
Generators directed to calculated dispatch
levels
Dispatch: The decisions on which generators are operating, and at what level
Repeat
Delay Delay
Short delays from time when dispatch is calculated, to when it occurs
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Fast markets minimise impact of uncertainty
• Calculating dispatch closer to real time minimises errors (minimise time from “gate closure” to dispatch)
Forecast errors for wind power production forecasts for Germany using different forecasting models
Error is lowest when forecast horizion is
shortest!
Holttinen, H., Meibom, P., Orths, A., Hulle, F. v., & Lange, B. (2009). Design and operation of power systems with large amounts of wind power. Final report, Phase one 2006-08. IEA Wind Tas 25.
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Fast markets minimise impact of variability
• Re-dispatching whole system more frequently gives more flexibility
Mismatch within dispatch intervals must
be met by reserves (Frequency Control Ancillary Services).
Minimising the amount of FCAS required (via
BIG and FAST markets) minimises costs.
ROAM. (2010). Assessment of FCS and Technical Rules. ROAM Consulting report to Independent Market Operator of Western Australia.
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Managing non-synchronous generation
Variability & Uncertainty
SRMC = $0/MWh
Non-synchronous
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Inertia
• Synchronous generators have a rotor spinning at a rate corresponding to the frequency of the system
• Automatically provide inertia when operating
• Wind and PV (non-synchronous generators) do not
• Usually connected to the grid via power electronics (de-coupled from the system frequency)
• Displace generators that do provide inertia
• Can cause system to become unstable at high penetrations
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Inertia
• Inertia determines how rapidly frequency deviates when there is a mismatch• High inertia gives more time for ancillary services to respond
Time (minutes)
Freq
ue
ncy
(H
z)
High inertia
Low inertia
50 Hz
Safe range
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Managing non-synchronous generation
• AEMO 100% renewables modelling assumed minimum of 15% synchronous generation at all times
• Partly for inertia, partly for other grid stability issues• Fault detection, etc.
• Complex! Lots of further research required
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Managing low SRMC
Variability & Uncertainty
SRMC = $0/MWh
Non-synchronous
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Characteristics of Renewables
20
Variable
SRMC = $0/MWh Non-synchronous
WindSolar PV
Solar thermal w/o storage
Solar thermal w/ storage,Hydro,Geothermal
Biomass
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Market impacts of renewables
Marginal pricing market
+
Competitive market
Generators bid close to SRMC
Price close to zero in majority
of periods
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Merit Order Effect - Observed
• Also in international markets• Texas (ERCOT), Denmark, Spain, Ireland
Cutler NJ, Boerema N, MacGill IF, and Outhred HR, (2011). High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market, Energy Policy 39, 5939-5949.
Low wind
High windSummer, weekdays
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Ongoing debate on electricity market design
Energy Only
• NEM
• NZ
• Alberta
• Texas (ERCOT)
• Nordpool
• Singapore
Capacity
• SWIS
• New England (ISO-NE)
• New York (NYISO)
• PJM
• South Korea
23
England-Wales2001 - present 1990’s - 2001
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PoliciesMechanism to achieve a sustainable transition
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Two key policies
Renewable Energy Target
•Driving an increase in renewables
Carbon Pricing
•Driving a reduction in carbon
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Renewable Energy Market
Renewables create certificates (1 MWh = 1 REC)
Clean Energy Regulator sets Renewable Power Percentage (RPP) – defines annual liability
Retailers surrender the RPP of their electricity sales in RECs
Creates a R
EC
market
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Renewable Energy Target
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Historical RECs
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Anticipate the unexpected
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Solar Photovoltaics drivers
• Global oversupply of PV modules
• High Australian dollarInternational
• Solar 5x Multiplier (RET)Federal
• Generous FiTsState
• Strong supportIndividual
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Renewable market stalled
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Demand in 2015-16?
+1,0
00
MW
+3,5
00
MW
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But will retailers prefer to pay the shortfall charge?
Riesz, Noone, MacGill, Working Paper, “Payments for Closure: Should Direct Action include payments for closure of high emission coal-fired power plants?
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Carbon Pricing
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Carbon targets
Bipartisan support for -5% by 2020 target
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Policy mechanisms
ExamplesMechanism type
Policy mechanisms
Regulatory
Appliances –minimum star
ratings
Building efficiency standards
Market-based
Carbon tax
Emissions trading
Mandating restrictions or banning particular
items, technologies or techniques
Price on carbon
ADVANTAGES:
Good where market not effective
DISADVANTAGES:
Can be haphazard
Difficulties evolving with the market
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Market based approaches
$/tCO2
$
$$
$
R&D
Tax cuts+$$
+$$
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Creating a market for carbon
Price ($)
Quantity (Q)
Demand Supply
Dictated by Government
Cost of abatement options
Option 1:Set the price (Carbon tax)
Market determines quantity
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Creating a market for carbon
Price ($)
Quantity (Q)
Demand Supply
Dictated by Government
Cost of abatement options
Option 2:Set the quantity (Emissions Trading)
Market determines price
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Creating a market for carbon
Price ($)
Quantity (Q)
Demand(uncertain)
SupplySet the price
Uncertainty in quantity
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Creating a market for carbon
Price ($)
Quantity (Q)
Supply
Set the quantity
Uncertainty in price
Demand(uncertain)
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Creating a market for carbon
Which is most important?
Price
Carbon tax
Quantity
Emissions Trading
• Price certainty
• No guarantee of meeting emissions targets
• Price may require adjustment (removes price certainty benefits)
• Simpler
Guaranteed to meet targets
No price certainty
Can experience price volatility (especially at market start)
Can link internationally
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Clean Energy Future
• Emissions trading with initial fixed price period
• Commenced 1st July 2012
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Price of carbon
July 2012
July 2013
July 2014
July 2015
July 2016
July 2017
July 2018
$23.00$24.15
$25.40
July 2019
No
min
al p
rice
$/t
CO
2
Treasury modelling (July 2011)
Announce targets
Flexible priceFixed price
Price depends upon targets($30-60 /tCO2 by 2020)
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Public consultation – repeal of carbon price
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Direct Action – Emissions Reduction Fund
• Abatement “Buy back” (reverse auctions)• Baseline and credit (emissions trading?)• Short term policies only (what will happen long term?)
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Impacts of the carbon price on electricity sector
+$$
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Impact of carbon price on electricity market
Generator costs increase
• Proportional to emissions intensity
Increase bid prices
• Assuming a competitive market
Wholesale electricity prices increase
• Average emissions intensity ~1tCO2/MWh, anticipate ~1:1 pass through of $23/tCO2 carbon price
Cost passed through to consumers
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Investment decisions
Black coal
Brown coal
GasRenewables
Gas CCS
Coal CCS
No carbon price -5% by 2020 -25% by 2020
Source: Treasury, Strong Growth Low Pollution Modelling, 2011
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Exciting times ahead
The electricity sector is rapidly
evolving
Biggest change since the power system was first
constructed
Real potential for innovative
ideas