challenges of solar manufacturing -...
TRANSCRIPT
Challenges of Solar
Manufacturing
Alan Rae IPC Apex Conference
7 April, 2010
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• Current State of the Art (Situation Analysis) • Technology needs: Roadmap/Quantified Key Attributes/
Challenges 15 Years Out • Critical Issues/Infrastructure (Gaps & Showstoppers)
– Materials Shortages – Environmental Concerns – Energy Policy’s Impact on the Technology & its Acceptance – Regional Policy Differences – Finance Issues
• Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research, Development, Recommendations on Priorities and Alternative Technologies, Prospective Future Technologies
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Product Needs
Technology Evolution
GAP Analysis Research
Projects
Competitive Solutions
Roadmap
Industry Solution Needed
Academia
Government
iNEMI Members
Collaborate
No Work Required
Available to Market
Place
Global Industry
Participation Disruptive
Technology
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• Much of the technology is new – Lots of good ideas but few proven winners – Much learning has yet to be done
• Three leading technologies: – Crystalline flat panel – not new but evolving – Thin film panel – flat or flexible – Concentrating photovoltaics: “CPV”
• The ultimate winner is unknown – Skills learned for any technology may not be relevant to others – Market dynamics and technology development should eventually steer the
industry toward one or two solutions for each market sector – solar farms, industrial, BIPV (Building Integrated PhotoVoltaics), consumer, portable
• Markets are still government subsidy driven – Vulnerable to tax / grant / feed-in tariff changes
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• Semiconductor wafers mounted on a panel – The original solar technology – Similar to PCB manufacture – Weather-related challenges
• Past problems stemmed from supply constraints – 2006-2009 polysilicon shortage
• Good technology for cloudy climates
• Well-suited to small installations – e.g. domestic rooftop – because of high efficiency.
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• Semiconducting material applied directly to panel – Similar to flat-panel LCD-TV manufacture – Highly capital intensive
• Very low cost – Offset by low efficiency – Competes directly with crystalline panels
• Good technology for cloudy climates
• Strong contender for BIPV and solar plants
• Flexible thin film (CIGS, CdTe) is also growing – Lower capital intensity – Perhaps the lowest cost option?
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• Light focused onto semiconductors – Similar to mechanical device production – Very tight tolerances – Humidity issues
• Materials inexpensive – Very low volume of semiconductors – Other materials readily available/inexpensive (glass, acrylic, steel, aluminum) – Packaging can be complex (high UV flux / temperature)
• Requires direct sun – Must be mounted on trackers
• Varied Applications – High-Conc. (HCPV): Utilities – Low-Conc. (LCPV): Rooftops (some without trackers)
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• The electronics should be your smallest headache – Weather extremes must be tolerated
• Hermeticity • Durability • Mechanical systems & tolerances (for CPV)
• 20-year warranties common – 30-year warranties coming – Solar degradation unacceptable
• Significant reliability concerns – Connectors – Wires
• Balance of system (BOS) can cause system failure – Inverters are a common culprit
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• There is no clear winner today – Any of the three basic technologies could prevail – Skills for each technology is different from the others
• Weather tolerance is significant issue – Few other electronic systems have such taxing extremes:
• Full sun on hot summer days • Snow & hailstorms in the winter • High humidity year ‘round • Wind (120 mph rating), salt, & sand
• Plenty of other important issues – Tolerances for CPV – Connectors etc. for weather extremes – 20-30 year warranties expected
• And many others!
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