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Mexico Between North America and Latin America William Polushin, AMAXIS Inc. and McGill University Chambre de Commerce du Montréal Métropolitain Mexico: The Awakening of the Aztec Tiger 15.04.2015, William Polushin

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  • Mexico Between North America and

    Latin America

    William Polushin, AMAXIS Inc. and McGill University

    Chambre de Commerce du Montréal Métropolitain

    Mexico:

    The Awakening of the Aztec Tiger

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • About William Polushin

    President, AMAXIS Inc. Business development and market expansion services firm

    Lecturing at McGill since 2003 Managing in North America, Managing in Asia, Managing in

    Europe, Management in Global Context

    Founding Director, McGill Program for International Competitiveness: Trade and Innovation

    Past President, Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Mexico

    20+ years of international business experience, including 5 years (based in Mexico) as Vice President, Business Development, Mexico and the Caribbean for a global engineering-construction firm

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • 15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Mexico: The Land and the People

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Area (km2) 1,964,375 9,984,670

    Population (estimate) 118.4 million 35.7 million

    Median Age 27.3 41.7

    Ethnic Groups Mestizo 60%

    Amerindian 30%

    White 9%

    Other 1%

    Religions (2010 est.) Roman Catholic 82.7%

    Protestant 1.6%

    Other/Unspecified 15.7%

    Roman Catholic 40.6%

    Protestant 20.3%

    Other /None 39.1%

    Languages (2011 est.) Spanish 92.7%

    Spanish + Indigenous 5.7%

    Other 1.6%

    English 58.7%

    French 22.0%

    Other 19.3%

    Mexico: The Land and the People

    Sources: Statistics Canada, The World Factbook

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Mexico: The Land and the People

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Mexico’s Economy

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (USD, Seasonally Adjusted, Billions)

    0.0

    200.0

    400.0

    600.0

    800.0

    1,000.0

    1,200.0

    1,400.0

    1,600.0

    1,800.0

    2,000.0

    Canada

    Mexico

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

    Source: IMF

  • Source: IMF

    The Trillion Dollar Club (current USD)

    2012e 2011 2010 2009

    United States $15.65 trillion $15.08 trillion $14.50 trillion $13.97 trillion

    China $8.25 trillion $7.30 trillion $5.93 trillion $4.99 trillion

    Japan $5.98 trillion $5.87 trillion $5.49 trillion $5.04 trillion

    Germany $3.37 trillion $3.61 trillion $3.31 trillion $3.31 trillion

    France $2.58 trillion $2.78 trillion $2.57 trillion $2.63 trillion

    United Kingdom $2.43 trillion $2.43 trillion $2.27 trillion $2.19 trillion

    Brazil $2.43 trillion $2.49 trillion $2.14 trillion $1.62 trillion

    Italy $1.98 trillion $2.20 trillion $2.06 trillion $2.12 trillion

    India $1.95 trillion $1.83 trillion $1.63 trillion $1.27 trillion

    Russia $1.95 trillion $1.85 trillion $1.49 trillion $1.22 trillion

    Canada $1.77 trillion $1.74 trillion $1.58 trillion $1.34 trillion

    Australia $1.54 trillion $1.49 trillion $1.24 trillion $0.99 trillion

    Spain $1.34 trillion $1.48 trillion $1.39 trillion $1.46 trillion

    Mexico $1.16 trillion $1,15 trillion $1.04 trillion $0.88 trillion

    Korea $1.15 trillion $1.12 trillion $1.01 trillion $0.83 trillion

    04.09.2015, WP

  • Source: Scotia Economics

    Real GDP (% change) by Country

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    2000-2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f

    Canada

    USA

    Mexico

    Japan

    UK

    Euro Zone

    China

    India

    Brazil

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • The World in 2050 (GDP: PPP versus MER, constant 2009 US$bn)

    PPP 2050

    Rank Country

    Projected

    GDP at PPP

    MER 2050

    Rank Country

    Projected

    GDP at MER

    1 China 59,475 1 China 51,180

    2 India 43,180 2 US 37,876

    3 US 37,876 3 India 31,313

    4 Brazil 9,762 4 Brazil 9,235

    5 Japan 7,664 5 Japan 7,664

    6 Russia 7,559 6 Russia 6,112

    7 Mexico 6,682 7 Mexico 5,800

    8 Indonesia 6,205 8 Germany 5,707

    9 Germany 5,707 9 UK 5,628

    10 UK 5,628 10 Indonesia 5,358

    11 France 5,344 11 France 5,344

    12 Turkey 5,298 12 Turkey 4,659

    13 Nigeria 4,530 13 Italy 3,798

    16 Canada 3,322 15 Canada 3,322

    Source: PwC

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • $0

    $10,000

    $20,000

    $30,000

    $40,000

    $50,000

    $60,000

    Canada

    France

    Germany

    Japan

    Korea

    Mexico

    Sweden

    USA

    Euro Area

    China

    India

    GDP per Capita, 2002 – 2013 (USD, current prices and PPPs)

    15.04.2015, WP

  • Mexico’s Trade & Investment

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Mexico: Trade Structure

    Principal Exports Principal Imports

    Manufactured goods Metalworking machines

    Oil and oil products Steel mill products

    Silver Agricultural machinery

    Fruits Electrical equipment

    Vegetables Car pars for assembly

    Coffee Repair parts for motor vehicles

    Cotton Aircraft and aircraft parts

    Leading Markets Leading Suppliers

    U.S. U.S.

    Spain China

    Canada Japan

    China Germany

    Germany South Korea

    Source: The World Factbook

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • World Merchandise Trade

    Exports Imports

    Value

    US$B

    2013 Share

    (%)

    Value

    US$B

    2013 Share

    (%)

    World 18,270 100.0 18,395 100.0

    N. America 2,417 13.2 3,198 17.4

    U.S. 1,579 8.6 2,331 12.7

    Canada 458 2.5 474 2.6

    Mexico 380 2.1 391 2.1

    Source: Canada’s State of Trade - 2014

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • World Services Trade

    Exports Imports

    Value

    US$B

    2013 Share

    (%)

    Value

    US$B

    2013 Share

    (%)

    World 4,625 100.0 4,340 100.0

    N. America 761 16.5 561 12.9

    U.S. 662 14.3 427 9.8

    Canada 78 1.7 105 2.4

    Mexico 20 0.4 28 0.6

    Source: Canada’s State of Trade - 2014

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Mexico: Leading Exporter in Latin America

    Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • FDI Inflows (Billions USD) Host

    Region/Economy

    2005-

    2007* 2010 2011 2012 2013

    World 1,493.4 1,422.3 1,700.1 1,330.3 1,452.0

    EU 651.8 383.7 490.4 216.0 246.2

    United States 186.0 198.0 223.8 160.6 187.5

    Canada 67.6 28.4 39.7 43.0 62.3

    Mexico 25.9 23.4 23.4 17.6 38.3

    Asia and Oceania 299.1 411.7 432.9 418.4 429.1

    Japan 6.3 -1.3 -1.8 1.7 2.3

    China 76.2 114.7 124.0 121.1 123.9

    India 17.8 27.4 36.2 24.2 28.2

    Korea 10.5 9.5 9.8 9.5 12.2

    Source: UNCTAD * Annual average

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • FDI Outflows (Billions USD) Host

    Region/Economy

    2005-

    2007* 2010 2011 2012 2013

    World 1,532.2 1,467.6 1,711.7 1,346.7 1,410.7

    EU 850.0 483.0 585.3 237.9 250.5

    United States 211.0 277.8 386.7 366.9 338.3

    Canada 46.1 34.7 52.1 55.4 42.6

    Mexico 6.8 15.1 12.6 22.5 12.9

    Asia and Oceania 164.6 296.8 305.2 303.8 327.1

    Japan 56.5 56.3 107.6 122.5 135.7

    China 20.0 68.8 74.7 87.8 101.0

    India 11.5 15.9 12.5 8.5 1.7

    Korea 14.4 28.3 29.7 30.6 29.2

    Source: UNCTAD * Annual average

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Major Investors in Mexico (FDI in Mexico per country of origin; 1999-Q1 2014)

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • 15.04.2015, William Polushin

    Mexico: A Trading Hub (The country’s FTA give privileged access to 1.2 billion consumers)

  • 15.04.2015, William Polushin

    Foreign Trade Compass

    Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

  • 15.04.2015, William Polushin

    NAFTA: Redefining North American Trade

    Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

  • 15.04.2015, William Polushin

    Vehicle Production in NAFTA (1993-2013)

  • 15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Mexico holds the pro tempore presidency during 2014 - 2015

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

    The Pacific Alliance

    Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

  • 15.04.2015, William Polushin

    Mexico and the TPP

    Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

  • Trade Balance of Mexico with the World (2013)

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Leveraging the trade relationship with

    Mexico to gain competitive advantage

    Traditional Trade Model Competitive Trade Model

    CanCo

    Exports

    FDI

    MexCo

    Exports

    FDI

    CanCo / MexCo

    Exports

    Imports

    FDI

    CanCo / IntCo

    Exports

    Imports

    FDI

    MexCo / IntCo

    Exports

    Imports

    FDI

    15.04.2015, William Polushin

  • Merci beaucoup / Thank-you

    William Polushin

    [email protected] or

    [email protected]

    Tel. (514) 865-1976

    15.04.2015, William Polushin