chambre de commerce du montréal métropolitain mexico: the ... · russia $1.95 trillion $1.85...

Mexico Between North America and

Latin America

William Polushin, AMAXIS Inc. and McGill University

Chambre de Commerce du Montréal Métropolitain

Mexico:

The Awakening of the Aztec Tiger

15.04.2015, William Polushin

About William Polushin

President, AMAXIS Inc. Business development and market expansion services firm

Lecturing at McGill since 2003 Managing in North America, Managing in Asia, Managing in

Europe, Management in Global Context

Founding Director, McGill Program for International Competitiveness: Trade and Innovation

Past President, Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Mexico

20+ years of international business experience, including 5 years (based in Mexico) as Vice President, Business Development, Mexico and the Caribbean for a global engineering-construction firm


Mexico: The Land and the People


Area (km2) 1,964,375 9,984,670

Population (estimate) 118.4 million 35.7 million

Median Age 27.3 41.7

Ethnic Groups Mestizo 60%

Amerindian 30%

White 9%

Other 1%

Religions (2010 est.) Roman Catholic 82.7%

Protestant 1.6%

Other/Unspecified 15.7%

Roman Catholic 40.6%

Protestant 20.3%

Other /None 39.1%

Languages (2011 est.) Spanish 92.7%

Spanish + Indigenous 5.7%

Other 1.6%

English 58.7%

French 22.0%

Other 19.3%


Sources: Statistics Canada, The World Factbook


Mexico’s Economy


Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (USD, Seasonally Adjusted, Billions)

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

Canada

Mexico


Source: IMF

Source: IMF

The Trillion Dollar Club (current USD)

2012e 2011 2010 2009

United States $15.65 trillion $15.08 trillion $14.50 trillion $13.97 trillion

China $8.25 trillion $7.30 trillion $5.93 trillion $4.99 trillion

Japan $5.98 trillion $5.87 trillion $5.49 trillion $5.04 trillion

Germany $3.37 trillion $3.61 trillion $3.31 trillion $3.31 trillion

France $2.58 trillion $2.78 trillion $2.57 trillion $2.63 trillion

United Kingdom $2.43 trillion $2.43 trillion $2.27 trillion $2.19 trillion

Brazil $2.43 trillion $2.49 trillion $2.14 trillion $1.62 trillion

Italy $1.98 trillion $2.20 trillion $2.06 trillion $2.12 trillion

India $1.95 trillion $1.83 trillion $1.63 trillion $1.27 trillion

Russia $1.95 trillion $1.85 trillion $1.49 trillion $1.22 trillion

Canada $1.77 trillion $1.74 trillion $1.58 trillion $1.34 trillion

Australia $1.54 trillion $1.49 trillion $1.24 trillion $0.99 trillion

Spain $1.34 trillion $1.48 trillion $1.39 trillion $1.46 trillion

Mexico $1.16 trillion $1,15 trillion $1.04 trillion $0.88 trillion

Korea $1.15 trillion $1.12 trillion $1.01 trillion $0.83 trillion

04.09.2015, WP

Source: Scotia Economics

Real GDP (% change) by Country

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000-2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f

Canada

USA

Mexico

Japan

UK

Euro Zone

China

India

Brazil


The World in 2050 (GDP: PPP versus MER, constant 2009 US$bn)

PPP 2050

Rank Country

Projected

GDP at PPP

MER 2050

Rank Country

Projected

GDP at MER

1 China 59,475 1 China 51,180

2 India 43,180 2 US 37,876

3 US 37,876 3 India 31,313

4 Brazil 9,762 4 Brazil 9,235

5 Japan 7,664 5 Japan 7,664

6 Russia 7,559 6 Russia 6,112

7 Mexico 6,682 7 Mexico 5,800

8 Indonesia 6,205 8 Germany 5,707

9 Germany 5,707 9 UK 5,628

10 UK 5,628 10 Indonesia 5,358

11 France 5,344 11 France 5,344

12 Turkey 5,298 12 Turkey 4,659

13 Nigeria 4,530 13 Italy 3,798

16 Canada 3,322 15 Canada 3,322

Source: PwC


$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Canada

France

Germany

Japan

Korea

Mexico

Sweden

USA

Euro Area

China

India

GDP per Capita, 2002 – 2013 (USD, current prices and PPPs)

15.04.2015, WP

Mexico’s Trade & Investment


Mexico: Trade Structure

Principal Exports Principal Imports

Manufactured goods Metalworking machines

Oil and oil products Steel mill products

Silver Agricultural machinery

Fruits Electrical equipment

Vegetables Car pars for assembly

Coffee Repair parts for motor vehicles

Cotton Aircraft and aircraft parts

Leading Markets Leading Suppliers

U.S. U.S.

Spain China

Canada Japan

China Germany

Germany South Korea

Source: The World Factbook


World Merchandise Trade

Exports Imports

Value

US$B

2013 Share

(%)

Value

US$B

2013 Share

(%)

World 18,270 100.0 18,395 100.0

N. America 2,417 13.2 3,198 17.4

U.S. 1,579 8.6 2,331 12.7

Canada 458 2.5 474 2.6

Mexico 380 2.1 391 2.1

Source: Canada’s State of Trade - 2014


World Services Trade

Exports Imports

Value

US$B

2013 Share

(%)

Value

US$B

2013 Share

(%)

World 4,625 100.0 4,340 100.0

N. America 761 16.5 561 12.9

U.S. 662 14.3 427 9.8

Canada 78 1.7 105 2.4

Mexico 20 0.4 28 0.6

Source: Canada’s State of Trade - 2014


Mexico: Leading Exporter in Latin America

Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal


FDI Inflows (Billions USD)

Host

Region/Economy

2005-

2007* 2010 2011 2012 2013

World 1,493.4 1,422.3 1,700.1 1,330.3 1,452.0

EU 651.8 383.7 490.4 216.0 246.2

United States 186.0 198.0 223.8 160.6 187.5

Canada 67.6 28.4 39.7 43.0 62.3

Mexico 25.9 23.4 23.4 17.6 38.3

Asia and Oceania 299.1 411.7 432.9 418.4 429.1

Japan 6.3 -1.3 -1.8 1.7 2.3

China 76.2 114.7 124.0 121.1 123.9

India 17.8 27.4 36.2 24.2 28.2

Korea 10.5 9.5 9.8 9.5 12.2

Source: UNCTAD * Annual average


FDI Outflows (Billions USD)

Host

Region/Economy

2005-

2007* 2010 2011 2012 2013

World 1,532.2 1,467.6 1,711.7 1,346.7 1,410.7

EU 850.0 483.0 585.3 237.9 250.5

United States 211.0 277.8 386.7 366.9 338.3

Canada 46.1 34.7 52.1 55.4 42.6

Mexico 6.8 15.1 12.6 22.5 12.9

Asia and Oceania 164.6 296.8 305.2 303.8 327.1

Japan 56.5 56.3 107.6 122.5 135.7

China 20.0 68.8 74.7 87.8 101.0

India 11.5 15.9 12.5 8.5 1.7

Korea 14.4 28.3 29.7 30.6 29.2

Source: UNCTAD * Annual average


Major Investors in Mexico (FDI in Mexico per country of origin; 1999-Q1 2014)



Mexico: A Trading Hub (The country’s FTA give privileged access to 1.2 billion consumers)


Foreign Trade Compass



NAFTA: Redefining North American Trade



Vehicle Production in NAFTA (1993-2013)

Mexico holds the pro tempore presidency during 2014 - 2015


The Pacific Alliance



Mexico and the TPP


Trade Balance of Mexico with the World (2013)


Leveraging the trade relationship with

Mexico to gain competitive advantage

Traditional Trade Model Competitive Trade Model

CanCo

Exports

FDI

MexCo

Exports

FDI

CanCo / MexCo

Exports

Imports

FDI

CanCo / IntCo

Exports

Imports

FDI

MexCo / IntCo

Exports

Imports

FDI


Merci beaucoup / Thank-you

William Polushin

[email protected] or

[email protected]

Tel. (514) 865-1976


chambre de commerce du montréal métropolitain mexico: the ... · russia $1.95 trillion $1.85...

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