change models – types of changes quality adjustment – do same things consistently incremental...
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Change Models – Types of Changes Quality Adjustment – Do same things consistently Incremental – Slight change to improve Trend Adjustment – Adjust output to market Evolution Step – Gradual major change Revolution Step – Rapid major change Paradigm Shift – Very rapid change to something
totally different
Change Models
Help to respond to environmental change• Some change just happens• Some is planned by others
Help to anticipate and survive• Those who see change happening can respond• Those who ignore change don’t survive
To thrive you must be good at:• Responding to a Change• Anticipating a Change
• Driving the Change
Responding to a Change – Possible Responses
Remain Unaware Ignore (Hope change will reverse) Wait to see what others do & copy them Just start doing something (play by ear) Put together a detailed analysis and plan BEST: Assess basis for the change, determine
what else the change will impact, flexibly manage to maximize benefit from change.
Anticipating a Change
“You can and should shape your own future. Because, if you don’t, someone else surely will.” – Joel Barker
More difficult than responding Provides opportunity to:
• Lead and affect the change• Select what part of the change you want to influence• Get into action early
Requires continual sensing of the outside
Critical Change Analysis
Critical Change Analysis – What if Start from the Current State Analyze major factors which could change the
current state• External influences Respond• Current Shortcomings Necessitates Invention
Brainstorm the “What if’s”
Current StateCurrent StateMore or lessMore or less
DefinedDefined
Critical Change Analysis
ChangeChangeNeededNeeded
Outcome 1Outcome 1
Outcome Outcome 22
Outcome 3Outcome 3Outcome 4…..etc.Outcome 4…..etc.
LargeLargeVolumes ofVolumes ofSand - PoorSand - Poor
AccessAccess
Conventional Heavy Oil
Produce Produce thethe
ReservoirReservoir
Stir Up the Stir Up the ReservoirReservoir
Access Access Without Without CasingCasing
Enhanced In-SituEnhanced In-SituSeparationSeparation
Turn IntoTurn IntoOpportunityOpportunity
High Cost ofHigh Cost ofInjectants forInjectants for
EOREOR
Conventional Oil
Low CostLow CostInjectantInjectantSuppliesSupplies
Alternate Water Alternate Water SourcesSources
Carbon Carbon DioxideDioxide
NitrogenNitrogenAir or Air or OxygenOxygen
10-15% of Gas10-15% of Gas Used for Used for
FuelFuel
Natural Gas
ReduceReduceFuelFuel
CostsCosts
Co-generation inCo-generation inGas TreatingGas Treating
Geothermal Geothermal Co-Co-
generation generation TechnologyTechnology
Acid Gas Acid Gas InjectionInjectionGas Liquefaction Gas Liquefaction
for Pipelinesfor Pipelines
Mainly LargeMainly LargeCoal FiredCoal Fired
UtilitiesUtilities
Energy Generation Co-GenerationCo-Generation
Power fromPower fromWastesWastes
““Renewable”Renewable”SourcesSources
Geothermal Geothermal Co-Co-
generation generation TechnologyTechnology
DeregulationDeregulation& Distributed& DistributedGenerationGeneration
Driving the Change
Making things happen – Why not Overcome Resistance to a Change
Change = ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS
• SD = Sufficient Dissatisfaction• V = Vision of what could be• FS = First Steps to get there• R = Resistance to Change must be Overcome• SS = Support System to Make it Happen
Change Model – DHOWS Case Study
How it was used and reused to assess the situation for given changes.
Initial Concept Testing philosophy Demonstration Commercialization On-going
Water Management
Minimize Minimize WaterWater
HandlingHandling
Drill Somewhere Drill Somewhere ElseElse
Plug off Plug off in the in the
ReservoiReservoirr
Coning Coning ControlControl
Downhole Downhole SeparationSeparation
High Cost ofHigh Cost ofHandlingHandling
Water ($1.2 b/yr)Water ($1.2 b/yr)
Water Management
SD Obtain water production & handling cost data
V Lower costs and increase production FS Look at Options – Feasibility Study R “We’re doing as good as everybody else”;
“We just sell off properties when they start watering out”
SS Use real applications to assess
DHOWS Initial Concept
DownholeDownholeOil/WaterOil/Water
SeparationSeparation
Sieves & Sieves & ScreensScreens
HydrocycloneHydrocyclone
MembranesMembranes
GravityGravityOther OptionsOther Options
Not VeryNot VeryPredictablePredictable
DHOWS Initial Concept
SD Need better than hit and miss V Design system to match application FS Design Initial Prototypes R “No residence time in a well”; “Maybe when
hell freezes over!” SS Build on proven systems
Testing Philosophy
MinimumMinimumTest to AnswerTest to Answer
QuestionsQuestions
Component Component TestingTesting
Lab WellLab WellSimulationSimulation
Scale Scale ModelsModels
Field Well Field Well TestsTests
DHOWS ConceptsDHOWS ConceptsSimple But Simple But UnprovenUnproven
Testing Philosophy
SD Problems with past trials V Controlled Test with Low Risk FS Select an Optimum Candidate Well R “Too much Jewelry in the hole”; “Not
measuring water quality” SS Field for initial tests well understood
Demonstration
DemonstrationDemonstrationTestingTesting
RequiredRequired
Well Simulator Well Simulator TestingTesting
C-FER C-FER Controlled Controlled
TestsTests
JIP JIP TestingTesting
Semi-Commercial Semi-Commercial TestsTests
Limits to UseLimits to UseUnknownUnknown
Demonstration
SD One success not enough V Gradual development of a new standard
required FS Get more units out there R “Costs more than just a pump”; “Why should
my business unit take the risk” SS On-going C-FER/NPEL support
Commercialization
User GuidesUser Guides& Training& Training
C-FER/NPEL C-FER/NPEL Consulting or Consulting or
JV’sJV’s
C-FER/NPEL C-FER/NPEL CoursesCourses
ProducerProducerTrainingTraining
Pump Pump Vendors Vendors Through Through
SalesSales
Few PeopleFew PeopleKnow HowKnow How
DHOWS WorksDHOWS Works
Commercialization
SD Everybody talks about it but no one uses it V Make DHOWS an industry option FS Education of the Producers R “We want to be on the leading edge, not the
bleeding edge”; “It costs too much!” SS C-FER/NPEL courses/consulting
Topic:_____________
Topic:_____________________
((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C SD _____________________________ V ______________________________ FS _____________________________ R ______________________________
________________________________________
SS _____________________________
Topic:_____________
Topic:_____________________
((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C SD _____________________________ V ______________________________ FS _____________________________ R ______________________________
________________________________________
SS _____________________________
Topic:_____________
Topic:_____________________
((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C SD _____________________________ V ______________________________ FS _____________________________ R ______________________________
________________________________________
SS _____________________________
Topic:_____________
Topic:_____________________
((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C SD _____________________________ V ______________________________ FS _____________________________ R ______________________________
________________________________________
SS _____________________________