change research at the usda forest service: what we have ... · change research at the usda forest...

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May 4, 2011

Change Research at the USDA Forest Service: What We Have Learned over the last 20 Years

Presented by: Dr. Carlos Rodriguez-Franco and Vicki Arthur

Climate Change and Forests

Carlos Rodriguez – FrancoForest management Sciences Director

Forest Service Research and Development

May 4, 2011

Science Serving Society

Sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the Nation’s forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations.

US Forest Service Mission


Research & DevelopmentMission and Purpose

• Our Mission: We develop and deliver knowledge and innovative technology to improve the health and use of forests and rangelands

• Our core purpose: Sustain forests and grasslands and the values they provide people


Research & DevelopmentCapacity and Assets

• More than 500 permanent scientists plus dozens of post-docs

• A network of 77 field laboratories in 67 locations

• Long-term research on 80 experimental forests and ranges, plus >250 research natural areas

• More than 1,000 cooperative research agreements with partners

• Budget - $280 millionScience Serving Society

Drivers of Future Science and Management

• Restoration and recovery – managing with disturbance

• Capturing value in ecosystems• Linking land use and water• Social dynamics and resource use• Urban natural resource stewardship• Globalization


The USDA Forest Service

• Largest forest land manager in the U.S.– 147 million acres (20% of all forest land)

– Additional 41 million acres of rangeland

• Three main branches:– National Forest System

– State and Private Forestry

– Research

• Chief is serious about addressing climate change issues


Processes affecting vegetation Dynamics

DisturbancesIntensityfrequency

Catastrophic

Natural

Man made

Non - Catastrophic

Natural

Man made

Earthquakes, FireSnow storms, Hurricanes, Land slides, Tornados, Insect and disease attackFloods

Fire.

Grazing

(Same as above, but a lower scale)

Source: White, S.P. 1979. Pattern, process, and natural disturbance in vegetation. Botanical review 45:229 – 299.

Climate Change has strong influence on these disturbances


Factors affecting tree growth

PrecipitationSolar radiationDay lengthTemperatureWindNumber of days with light

Soil

DepthOrganic matterWater availabilityTexturePhNutrient content

Climatic conditions

OrographyTopographyAltitudeAspect

Tree species intrinsic characteristics: tolerance, genetic pool


Let’s pause for questions from the audience

Climate Change

• Mean annual global surface temps. increased ~0.74ºC from 1906-2005, with the change over the last 50 years twice that of the last 100 years.

• Since 1995, 11 of the warmest years on record have occurred.

• By the end of the century, mean annual increases of 1.8 to 4.0ºC are expected (relative to 1980-1999).

IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.


Results from different methods agree

• Holocene lake-sediment records -- increased fire activity in warmer drier climates.

• Fire-scar records -- drought and warmer temperatures increase fire occurrence and extent.

• Recent fire (1977-2003) also directly associated with drought except for arid systems, which need priming and curing of fuels.


Climate Change and Disturbances

• Fire regimes– Increased severity– Possible changes in size,

seasonality

• Drought– Increase in frequency

• Insects and diseases– Changes in distributions

• Hurricanes, landslides, ice storms, windstorms– Alterations are possible

Disturbances

Ecosystems

ClimateChange

Natural

Anthropogenic


Forest disturbances

Drought

Pests and diseases

Wildland fire


Globalwarming

Higher temperatures & more severe and extended droughts

Bark beetles and defoliators

Lodgepole pine mortality

Fuel accumulationLarge severe fires

Changes in species composition (including exotics)

Interior lodgepole pine

Stand-replacing fire regime

Extensive mature cohorts (70-80 yrs)

Salvage logging

Stand-replacing fire has multiple causes.


Extended warm period, insects, vulnerable age classes, pines die, fuels accumulate, large fires.

Lodgepole pine

Schwandt, J.W. 2006. Whitebark pine in peril: A case for restoration – current health assessment. R1-06-28. Coeur d’Alene: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Region, 20 p.

High Elevation Pines

• >1.4 million acres affected by mountain pine beetle

• e.g., whitebark pine serves as keystone species vital to the survival of Clark’s nutcracker, bears and others.

Plant-climate Relationships

Gerry Rehfeldt, Nick Crookston and Dennis Ferguson Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, ID

By the end of the century, ~50% of the West is predicted to experience climates that are incompatible with the vegetation occurring there today.

http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/index.html


Flows of carbon from the atmosphere to the forest and back. Carbon is stored mostly in live and dead wood as forests grow (adapted from Ryan and Law 2005).


Carbon Dioxide

• 45 % of the dry weight of plants is Carbon, which comes from atmospheric CO2 converted into carbohydrates by the process of photosynthesis.

• The atmosphere contains 350 ppm of CO2 and this low concentration limits the rate of photosynthesis.

• The increase in concentration of atmospheric CO2should be welcomed by farmers and foresters, because of its direct “fertilization “effects on plants, but this increase in CO2 causes an increase in temperature known as the greenhouse effect, and a change in rainfall patterns that indirectly will affect plant growth and human activities unfavorably.

Source: Kozlowski, T.T., Kramer, P.J. and Pallardy, S.G. 1991. The physiological ecology of woody plants. Academic Press Inc., USA. 657 p.


Global Climate Change Research Strategy Overview

2009 - 2019


Program Elements of the Forest Service Climate Change

ResearchEnhance ecosystem resilience, increase retention of newly sequestered carbon, and avoid carbon losses from major disturbances.

Enhance carbon sequestration via through increased forest growth rates and area of forested lands; enhanced biomass extraction and utilization.

Develop decision support tools and approaches for policymakers and land managers.

Meet needs for national infrastructure, scientific collaboration, and technology transfer to facilitate and implement the research and applications in the first three elements.


Mitigation and Adaptation

There is confusion around these ideas.

Type what you believe each one is, and an example in the chat.

Use the format: Mitigation is….. example –

Adaptation is … example -

• Adaptation and mitigation are often confused with each other, leading to miscommunication and misunderstanding.

• Equal confusion stems from the misconception that they are mutually exclusive. In a nutshell: an unhealthy forest will not sequester carbon, but carbon sequestration can help us promote and sustain healthy forests.

• That is, healthy and climate-adapted forests are necessary to successfully mitigate greenhouse gases in the long run.

• Adaptation and mitigation are mutually supportive.

RELATIONSHIP OF MITIGATION TO ADAPTATION


Understanding Ecosystem Changes

• Effects of multiple stresses on ecosystem processes• Species migration and composition changes• Climate change and disturbances• Implications for land management (adaptation and

mitigation)


Climate Change and Forest Processes

• Productivity – Under elevated CO2, forest productivity increases, subject to

moisture and nutrient conditions– Under warmer scenarios, increased drought, fire– Climate only changes result in a decline in productivity

• Carbon Storage– Modest warming could increase carbon storage

• Water Use– Runoff could increase in areas of the US

• Interactions with Air Pollutants– N deposition– Tropospheric ozone


Ecosystem Changes: Vegetation distributions

• Results influenced by– Treatment of CO2 effects– Particular climate scenario

• Results indicate– Direction of change– Magnitude uncertain

• Sensitive to climate– Species composition – Vegetation boundaries


Ecosystem Changes: Tree Species Migration


Water Cycle: Potential Effects of Climate Change on US Forests


• Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality

• Effects of water stress on ecosystem physiology

• Effects of climate change and air pollution on nutrient cycling–Integrated ecosystem process and hydrologic models

Tree carbon per hectare by U.S. county

Carbon Stocks and Stock Changes Estimated from Forest Inventory Data


Decision Support: Transferring research results to land managers

Action: Research to enhance carbon accounting tools

http://ncasi.uml.edu/COLE/

COLE: Carbon On-line Estimation web tool


Forest Service Strategic PlanningResource Assessments

• Mandated by RPA of 1974• The periodic assessments

synthesize and integrate:– Current scientific knowledge, – Current inventories of resource

conditions and – Analyses of alternative future

conditions.

• RPA climate changeassessments: 1990, 1995, 2000


Ecosystem Changes Implications for Forest Management

• Reduce non-climate stresses• Intensify habitat and species management• Reduce the risk of catastrophic disturbances

Insects, diseases, invasives, fire• Consider climate variability in management and

restoration plansNational forest plansOther public and private forest valuesAdjust natural resource yield and harvest models

• Landscape managementmigration corridors, edges of rangesProtect coastal wetlands, allow for sea-level rise


Silviculture can be the answer….

• Increase spatial heterogeneity (i.e, in terms of composition, age, structure, etc.).

S. M

unso

n, F

HP-

R4


Mitigation: Reducing carbon emissions from major disturbances

Action: Field research on forest density, insect life cycles, fire

properties, forest recovery

years,decades

decades, centuries

days,years


Removals: Increase carbon sequestration by increasing bioproducts

Action: Research on new forest products, substitutes for high

carbon-intensity materials, development of biofuels


A Roadmap for responding to climate change

1. Assessing2. Engaging3. Managing


USDA Forest Service Research & Development

Questions?


Naturalinquirer.org

Science Education Journal for Middle School Students

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• We will give you a couple minutes on the timer to explore this site.

• When timer stops, type your comments in the chat!

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