change rules – shift happens… · side 3 strong trend in cet1 & solvency ratio – unaided...
TRANSCRIPT
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24.09.2013
Spar Nord’s view on the implications of the new CRD IV regime
ABG Sundal Collier Funding Seminar
Carsten L. Jakobsen, SVP Risk and Funding
CHANGE RULES – SHIFT HAPPENS…
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side 2
CRD IV HAS IMPLICATIONS ACROSS THE PALETTE
Capital
ratios = Capital / RWA
Higher capital requirements
Conservation buffer
Counter-cyclical buffer
Systemic risk buffer
New demands on quality
Phasing-out of hybrid capital
Deduction rules
Stake in Nørresundby Bank
Shares in sector companies
New definitions of RWA
Extended definition of default and high risk customers
New calculation of
counterparty risk/CVA
Higher RWA on financial
counterparties
Discount on SME lending
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side 3
STRONG TREND IN CET1 & SOLVENCY RATIO – UNAIDED BY MAGIC MODELS
CORE TIER 1 RATIO SOLVENCY RATIO
8,9
13,4
Q4 2008 Q2 2013
+ 51%
8,9
13,4
0,8
3,1
1,6
0,2
11,3
16,8
Q4 2008 Q2 2013
Core tier 1 Tier 1 Tier 2
+ 48%
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40,4 39,9
2,2 0,6
7,4
2,9
49,9
43,4
Q4 2008 Q2 2013Lending, Leasing activities
Lending, Reverse transactions
Lending and guarantess, Banking activities
- 13%
4,0
6,2
Q4 2008 Q2 2013
+ 55%
side 4
STRENGTHENING OF EQUITY IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR DELEVERAGING
EQUITY (DKKb) LENDING AND GUARANTEES (DKKb)
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16,8
15
Q2 2013 Strategic target
13,4
12
Q2 2013 Strategic target
side 5
WELL ABOVE STRATEGIC TARGETS ON CAPITAL RATIOS
CORE TIER 1 RATIO SOLVENCY RATIO
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CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS
CORE TIER 1 RATIO
page 6
7 pct. Min. requirment
12 pct.Including
own buffer
SOLVENCY RATIO
15 pct.Including
own buffer
10,5 pct. Min. requirment9 pct.
incl. ICAAP
12,5 pct. Incl. ICAAP
8,0 pct. legal requirements
0-2,5 pct Counter-cyclical buffer
Additional buffer3,0-0,5 pct.
Min. requirements for common equity
Conservation buffer
2 pct ICAAP buffer
4,5 pct.
2,5 pct.
0-2,5 pct Counter-cyclical buffer
2,5-0 pct. Additional buffer
2 pct ICAAP buffer
2,5 pct. Conservation buffer
4,5 pct.
Hybrid and subordinated capital3,5 pct.
Min. requirements for common equity
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side 7
SPAR NORD AND SIFI REQUIREMENTS
CORE TIER 1 RATIO SOLVENCY RATIO
SIFI requirements are specified ex. ICAAP
For comparison a 2 pct. ICAPP buffer is added
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CRD IV impact on RWA (DKKm) 2014 Fully phased in Comments
Increased RWA from changes in deductions rules
~ 300 ~ 1.400
Changed default criteriaHigh risk exposureSME discount
~ 300 ~ 300
CVA and CCP clearingFinancial counterparties
~ 700 ~ 700
Total impact ~ 1.300 ~ 2.400
CRD IV IMPACT ON RISK WEIGHTED ASSETS
side 8
RWA treatment of elements that
otherwise would have been deducted
from CET1
Over 80 pct. comes from
Nørresundby Bank
Broader definition of the default
criteria increases RWA
High risk exposure is a new risk
category increases RWA
Support factor - SME exposure
decreases RWA
Higher capital requirements for OTC
derivatives by introducing a capital
charge for CVA risk
Higher capital requirements for loans
to financial intermediaries
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Impact from shares in Nørresundby Bank
NØRRESUNDBY BANK – A COMPLEX AFFAIR
side 9
Changes in the deduction rules
will have a negative impact on core tier 1 ratio
However, the same rules will
boost solvency ratio
When the ownership interest
exceeds 10 pct., deductions are split between capital
deductions and increased RWA
Impact on RWA are expressed
as a capital deduction
Basel II Deductions (DKKm) Impact on capital ratio (Pct.)
Core tier 1 ratio 0 0
Solvency ratio 700 -1,7
CRD IV Deductions (DKKm) Impact on capital ratio (Pct.)
Core tier 1 ratio 400 -0,8
Solvency ratio 400 -0,9
Changes Deductions (DKKm) Impact on capital ratio (Pct.)
Core tier 1 ratio 400 -0,8
Solvency ratio -300 0,8
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IMPACT FROM REPAYMENT OF STATE HYBRID CAPITAL
side 10
Impact from repayment of state hybrid capital
Capital ratios Impact
Tier 1 ratio 3,0%
Solvency ratio 3,2%
Repayment of DKKm 1.265
mid 2014
In connection with the repayment, we expect to
issue new Tier 2 capital.
Timing and amount TBD.
After the repayment the
solvency ratio will still exceed 15 pct.
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side 11
CORE TIER 1 RATIO - CAPITAL SCENARIO UNTIL 2015
Basel II Phasing in CRD IV
Phasing in of CRD IV leads to visible deductions in CET1
In a base scenario with modest growth and possible dividend, CET1 remains comfortably above target
13,1 13,214,3
12,112,8 13,4 13,8 13,9 13,5 13,6 13,8 13,9 13,4 13,5 13,4 13,5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015
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CONCLUSIONS
side 12
The new regulatory regime leads to number of changes and it has implications
across the palette
Non-IRB status (lower leverage) and non-SIFI status adds a certain flexibility to capital policy – comfortable with targets of 12% CET1 and 15% solvency
CRD IV leads to visible deductions – in a base scenario with modest growth CET1
remains comfortably above target
Nørresundby Bank is no no-brainer – multiple scenarios are thinkable
In connection with repayment of state hybrid capital, we plan to issue Tier 2
capital – timing and amount TBD
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side 13
QUESTIONS