#ChangeAgents,

Global Stability, and

International Affairs

dr. david a. bray @fcc_cio

We Are Living in

Exponential Times

when Voyager I launched in 1977

4.2 billion humans lived on Earth

global GDP = 7.2 trillion USD

and the Apple II went on sale that year

running at 1 MHz w/ 4 KB of RAM

Voyager I traveled 3.7 billion miles by 1990

5.3 billion humans lived on Earth

global GDP = 22 trillion USD

Windows 3.0 released and CERN sets up

the first web server at info.cern.ch

by 2013 >850 million web servers online

7.1 billion humans lived on Earth

global GDP = 75 trillion USD

7 billion global networked devices

4 ZB (billion TB) of digital content globally

by 2022, 75-300 billion networked devices

8 billion humans will live on Earth

global GDP = ?? trillion USD

7 billion humans online & 96 ZB content

digital content >all human eyes see/year

A Now, a Demonstration…

The Top 5 Things Which

Every MBA Should Know

(Yet Often Aren’t Taught)

(1) Most of Economics is NOT a science.

Game theory only explains 30% of real-world human

behavior; sometimes flipping a coin is more accurate.

(2) Humans do not behave rationally. Information given

or withheld will cue us to behave irrationally.

Human desire for fairness is not rational.

(3) B-School PhD have been debating the global

IT Productivity Paradox: $$$ spent on IT do not directly

correlate to increased productivity.

(4) Economics assumes a planet with infinite resources.

Yes outer space exists, yet it remains a very expensive and

deadly environment for humans.

(5) Top-down management techniques are sub-optimal

in turbulent environments. Examples: 9/11, SARS, Katrina.

A better, proven approach is to “empower the edge”.

What This Means for

Global Stability and

International Affairs

Point 1: Unlike past revolutions, this digital revolution

ultimately will improve organizational productivity

without needing more productive humans.

Point 2: Most Western nations e are in the “low tide" of

globalization = hard to compete in a global free market

because currencies are strong vs. other currencies.

Point 3: Jobs matter immensely. If humans sense too

large an imbalance, they will destabilize national

marketplaces and regimes globally.

Analytics on the Future of

Jobs, Automation, and

Globalization Are Needed

The “one-child policy” in China resulted in

the birth of 33 million more males than females.

This winter more than 50% of people in

Russia will go hungry due to lack of food.

In Afghanistan, Taliban has been manipulating the price

heroin via our counternarcotics efforts.

All ‘Arab Spring’ countries now worse-off both

economically and socially, except Tunisia also declining.

Unemployed male “youth bulges” and violent revolution

movements are strongly correlated in Africa & elsewhere.

Positive #ChangeAgents

Needed Now More

Than Ever

Your Innovative Spirit

Is Needed NOW

Your Innovative Spirit

Is Needed NOW

leaders don

“flak jackets”

change

isn’t easy

The Importance of You

public + non-profit orgs

gov’t workers

private sector

If We Take the 232 (~4.3 billion) Numbers

Addressable by IPv4

& Put Them Into a Beach Ball

The 2128 (~340 Followed By 36 zeros)

Numbers Addressable by IPv6

= The Volume of Our Sun

Encouraging Job Creation

in a Free Market is

Vital to Global Stability

(1) A minimal salary will not work in an era of scarce

resources because it will raise the cost of

scarce products to match the minimal salary.

(2) Automation does pose the opportunity for us all to

work less hours, if all nations commit to working less.

If any group ‘defects’ we all will hurt.

(3) The sharing economy, once automated, will put large

numbers of individuals out of work.

Truckers, cab drivers, delivery personnel, and more.

(4) Humans intrinsically need to feel purposeful.

Multiple medical journals show an ‘Unemployment Effect’

on eroding physical, mental, and family health.

(5) Shrinking middle classes in Western nations result in

a smaller consumer base to sell more products

creates a destabilizing ‘death spiral’ for markets.

Hopes for 2017 and Beyond

We can engage in conversations about these

issues and possible solutions across nations

and across sectors globally.

What We Can Do #1

Analytics + IoT/IoE + AI allow us to observe how humans

ACTUALLY make economic choices individually and

globally we can grow a real science to inform policy.

What We Can Do #2

We can involve the public in generating ideas to trigger

free market job creation and how to address the

“Unemployment Effect” in communities.

What We Can Do #3

Both Experiments & Expertise

have the root “ex peria” meaning “out of danger”

Experiments Expertise.

Carl Sagan in 1994:

Look again at that dot.

That's here. That's home.

That's us.

On it everyone you love,

everyone you know –

Everyone you ever heard of, every human

being who ever was, lived out their lives.

To me, it underscores

our responsibility to deal

more kindly with one another –

And to preserve and cherish the pale blue

dot, the only home we've ever known.

onwards and upwards together

Global #ChangeAgents

Needed Now More

Than Ever