changes in global oil market - european parliament...pe 579.078 at a glance march 2016 infographic...
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EPRS | European Parliamentary Research ServiceAuthors: Christian Dietrich, Patryk PawlakMembers’ Research ServicePE 579.078
At a glanceMarch 2016Infographic
Low oil prices and the fight against ISIL/Da’esh
2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040Coal
Oil
GasNuclearHydro
Bio-energy
Other re-newable
16%
22%
22%11%4%
15%
10%
29%
27%
23%5%3%9%4%
25%
26%
24%
7%3%10%5%
Map of 2014 production of petroleum and other liquids (millions of barrels per day; only countries with values over 60 000 bl/d shown)
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Members’ Research Service Page 2 of 2
EPRS Low oil prices and the fight against ISIL/Da’esh
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Involvement* in the con�ict in:Syria Iraq Yemen
* Involvement may refer to any of the following: naval support, aerial combat, intelligence, boots on the ground.
0
3
6
9
12
15%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Yemen
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Oman
Libya
Kuwait
IraqIranBahrain
Algeria
Defence spending(% of GDP)
0 300 6000 10 200 3 6
Gross o�cial reserves2016values
* projections
(US$ billion)Real GDP growth (annual change, %)Crude oil exports (millions of barrels
per day)
104.5%
14.7%18.2%
-13.6%-22.9%136.4
4.00.60
18.83.20.86
32.96.60.50
86.03.62.28
3.84.50.13
650.72.7
7.80
3.33.10.16
130.61.31.07
55.87.53.25
60.518.20.87
39.71.8
1.94
2010/11201220232014
*2015*2016
2010/11201220232014
*2015*2016
YemenUAE Saudi ArabiaQatarOman
LibyaKuwaitIraqIranBahrainAlgeria
80 000 to120 000barrels per day
2 to 6US$ million/day
0.5 to 1US$ million/day
10 US$million/month
20 000barrels per day
25 000�ghters
BEFORE COALITION STRIKES
CRUDE OIL REVENUE
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
AFTER COALITION STRIKES FIGHTERS’ PAY
Algeria-62%
Bahrain-62%
Iran-67%Iraq
-50% Kuwait-64%
Libya-10%
Oman-60%
Qatar-67%
Saudi Arabia-62%
UAE-66%
Yemen-48%
Change in crude oil export revenue(2016 projection/2014, annualised)
300
10050
10 US$ billions2014 (US$ 98.89 per barrel)
2016 (US$ 37.52 per barrel)
Low oil prices have adversely a�ected the budgets of oil-producing countries, causing losses in revenues. The situation of con�ict-torn countries like Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, whose budgets are heavily dependent on oil, is particularly di�cult. Many of the Gulf countries, however, will be able to withstand low prices, thanks to high �nancial reserves built up over years, in the hope of eliminating some competitors.
The convergence of lower oil prices, increased e�orts of the law enforcement community, and the military response to curb ISIL/Da'esh �nances have contributed to reducing the group's revenue, and consequently weakened the 'caliphate's' capacity to fund its 25 000-strong army.
Bahrain, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar are �nancially, diplomatically and militarily engaged in the con�icts in Syria, Iraq and/or Yemen. While regional stability proves elusive and the share of defence spending in national budgets is projected to decrease towards 2020, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE will remain among the biggest defence spenders globally.
Oiling national budgets
Cutting ISIL/Da’esh’s cash �ows
Oil and security
Sources: International Monetary Fund, US Energy Information Administration
Source: IHS
Sources: Financial Action Task Force, Thomson Reuters
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/eng/mreo1015.htmhttps://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/prices.cfmhttps://www.ihs.com/index.htmlhttp://www.fatf-gafi.org/media/fatf/documents/reports/Financing-of-the-terrorist-organisation-ISIL.pdfhttps://risk.thomsonreuters.com/sites/default/files/GRC01815.pdf