changes in markets for north american hardwoodsflooring cabinets millwork export furniture pallets...
TRANSCRIPT
Hardwood Market ReportHardwood Market Report
Changes in Markets for Changes in Markets for North American North American
HardwoodsHardwoods
Housing Start Cycles
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
1959
1961
1963
1966
1968
1970
1972
1975
1978
1982
1984
1985
1986
1991
1994
1998
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Thou
sand
Uni
ts
Total StartsSingle-Family Starts
Longest up or down cycle is 5 years.
400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Source: US Census Bureau Graph: HMR Executive
Thou
sand
Uni
ts
Units StartedUnits CompletedBuilding Permits
New Home Construction Starts, Completed Units, and Building Permits
New and Existing Home Inventories
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
4,000,000
4,200,000
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09 Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Exis
ting
Inve
ntor
ies
(Uni
ts)
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
New
Inve
ntor
ies
(Uni
ts)
Existing
New
Sources: US Census and NARGraph: HMR Executive
Feb1990
Feb1991
Feb1992
Feb1993
Feb1994
Feb1995
Feb1996
Feb1997
Feb1998
Feb1999
Feb2000
Feb2001
Feb2002
Feb2003
Feb2004
Feb2005
Feb2006
Feb2007
Feb2008
Feb2009
Feb2010
US New Home Supply Pipeline
359.0
523.8
314.9
305.0
631.8
316.6
563.0
968.5
449.6
233.0
283.8
189.7
272.0
434.6
165.4Thou
sand
Uni
ts
Total Supply Feb.1990:
1,197.7MUnits
Total SupplyFeb. 1992:
872.0M Units
Total Supply Feb.2000:
1,253.4MUnits
Supply Peaked May 2006 at
1,981.1M Units
Total SupplyFeb.2010:
706.5M Units
Multi-family Units Under Construction
Inventory of Single-Family Houses
Single-Family Units Under Construction
Source: US Census BureauGraph: Hardwood Market Report
Total Supply
Feb.1996:
1,127.8M Units
362.0
533.1
232.7 January 2010 S-F Const. and
Total Supply Pipeline of New Housing in the
US are the Lowest on
Record.
Total Supply
Pipeline has
Decreased 64.3% from
Peak
- 7
- 5
- 3
- 1
1
3
5
7
Perc
ent C
hang
e
2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 0 91Q
2 0 0 92 Q
2 0 0 93 Q
2 0 0 94 Q
GDP Percent Change Based on Current US Dollars
Source: US Dept. of Commerce
Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
60
65
70
75
80
85
Feb-
02M
ay-0
2A
ug-0
2N
ov-0
2Fe
b-03
May
-03
Aug
-03
Nov
-03
Feb-
04M
ay-0
4A
ug-0
4N
ov-0
4Fe
b-05
May
-05
Aug
-05
Nov
-05
Feb-
06M
ay-0
6A
ug-0
6N
ov-0
6Fe
b-07
May
-07
Aug
-07
Nov
-07
Feb-
08M
ay-0
8A
ug-0
8N
ov-0
8Fe
b-09
May
-09
Aug
-09
Nov
-09
Feb-
10
Perc
ent
Source: Federal ReserveGraph: HMR Executive
Average: 1972 - 2009 80.6%
Purchasing Managers Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan-09 Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09 May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09 Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09 Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10 Feb-10
Source: The Institute of Supply Management Graph: Hardwood Market Report
Inde
x Va
lue
Index values above 41.1 percent, over time, indicate expansion of the overall economy.
Index values above 50 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector of the economy.
-50%-29%6.59.210.411.211.612.9
Total Estimated
Consumption
N/AN/A0.050.2N/AN/AN/AN/A
Board Road/Mat Timbers
7%-32%0.751.11.01.00.90.7Railway Ties
-64%-38%0.50.81.31.41.51.4Flooring
-42%-42%0.71.21.31.51.61.2Cabinets
-69%-43%0.40.71.01.21.31.3Millwork
-34%-21%0.791.01.21.31.31.2Exports
-88%-57%0.30.71.01.11.22.6Furniture
-33%-14%3.03.53.63.73.84.5Pallets
% Change 1999
% Change 2008200920082007200620051999Market Sector
3.03.53.63.73.84.5Pallets
200920082007200620051999
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Bill
ion
Boa
rd F
eet
1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
- 33% 1999 to 2009
0.30.71.01.11.22.6Furniture
200920082007200620051999
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Bill
ion
Boa
rd F
eet
1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
- 88% 1999 to 2009
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Mill
ion
US
Dol
lars
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US Imports of Wood Household Furniture
Total China
AHFA Estimates of Manufacturers' Shipments of Residential Wood and Upholstered Furniture
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2008* 2009* * 2008 and 2009 Through Q3
Bill
ion
US
Do
llars
TOTAL
WOOD
UPHOLSTERY
0.791.01.21.31.31.2Exports
200920082007200620051999
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Bill
ion
Boa
rd F
eet
1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
- 34.2% 1999 to 2009
0.40.71.01.21.31.3Millwork
200920082007200620051999
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Bill
ion
Boa
rd
Feet
1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Millwork- 69% 1999 to 2009
0.71.21.31.51.61.2Cabinets200920082007200620051999
Cabinets
1.21.6
1.51.3
1.20.7
199920052006200720082009
Billion Board Feet
0.50.81.31.41.51.4Flooring
200920082007200620051999
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Bill
ion
Boa
rd F
eet
1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
- 64% 1999 to 2009
0.751.11.01.00.90.7Railway Ties
200920082007200620051999
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
Bill
ion
Boa
rd F
eet
1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
+ 7% 1999 to 2009
Furniture20%
Exports9%
Millwork10%
Cabinets9%
Flooring11%
Railway Ties5%
Pallets36%
Percentage of Hardwood Consumption by Primary Market Sector - 1999
Grade markets comprised 59% of consumption.
Percentage of Hardwood Consumption by Primary Market Sector - 2009
10%
6%
12% 1%
47%
11%
8%
5%
Data Collected from a Variety of Industry, Academic and Government Sources Graph: Hardwood Market Report
Board Road &Mat TimbersRailway
Flooring
Cabinets
Millwork
ExportFurniture
Pallets
Grade markets comprise 40%
of consumption.
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Mill
ion
Boa
rd F
eet
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Eastern US Hardwood Lumber Production
2009 est. 5,730,000,000
board feet
1999 est. 12,619,000,000 board
feet
1962 est. 7,770,000,000 board feet
1975 est. 7,157,500,000 board
feet
- 54.6%from 1999
-49.3%from 2005
Sources: William G. Luppold, Ph.D. and Hardwood Market Report Graph: Hardwood Market
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Mill
ion
Boa
rd F
eet
1999
2007
2008
2009
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep-
08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Estimated Annual Rates of Sawmill Production for Eastern US Hardwoods
12.6B bd. ft.
Feb. 2010: 5.05B bd. ft.
8.1B bd. ft.
9.9B bd. ft.
Jan. 2008: 9.9B bd. ft.
Jan. 2009: 7.2B bd. ft.
©Hardwood Market Report 2010
June 2009: 5.4B bd. ft.
July 2009: 5.5B bd. ft.5.7B
bd. ft.
Challenges AheadChallenges Ahead
Access to working capitalAccess to working capital
Challenges AheadChallenges Ahead
Access to working capitalAccess to working capitalHigh unemploymentHigh unemployment
Challenges AheadChallenges Ahead
Access to working capitalAccess to working capitalHigh unemploymentHigh unemploymentGovernmentGovernment–– Health careHealth care–– Cap and tradeCap and trade
OpportunitiesOpportunities
►►HousingHousing
OpportunitiesOpportunities
►►HousingHousing►►The EconomyThe Economy
OpportunitiesOpportunities
►►HousingHousing►►The EconomyThe Economy►►Limited Supplies and Low InventoriesLimited Supplies and Low Inventories
ThankThank
YouYou