changes to the collection of short walk data in the nts glenn goodman, dft
TRANSCRIPT
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Changes to the collection of short walk data in the NTS
Glenn Goodman, DfT
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• A walk less than one mile but greater than 50 yards in distance.
What is a short walk?
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Timeline
Develop weighting
Short walks experiment
Further experiment
Public consultation
Consultation response
Cognitive testing
Decision on method
October 2015
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Background:
• Household survey of personal travel
• First survey in 1965. Continuous since 1988
• 2013: n = 7k households, 16k people (63% resp. rate)
• Complex design – stratified two-stage random sample
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Data collection
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Travel week allocation
• Day 1 = Monday?• Day 7 = Sunday?
• Respondents allocated start day – uniform spread across week and month
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Data collection
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The importance of the data
• Walking & cycling policy• Transport forecasts and models
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The decline of walking
234 trips
133 trips
58 trips
70 trips
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Research outline
• Data are weighted to account for under-reporting – short walks only collected on day 7
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Weighting for under-reporting
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Research question
• Data are weighted to account for under-reporting – short walks only collected on day 7
Aims:• To assess whether under-reporting of short
walk trips exists• If so, correct this under-reporting
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Timeline
Short walks experiment
April – June 2013
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Experiment outline
• Aim: To assess day 1 vs. day 7• Sample size: 1,000
• Designed to detect a 5% point change
£££
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2013 short walks experiment
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Under-reporting: adults
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Under-reporting: children
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Under-reporting: type of walk
A B
Short walk only trip
A B
Multi stage trip
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Under-reporting: type of walk
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Timeline
Public consultation
July – Sept 2014
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Consultation options
1
2
Day 7
Day 7
Another experiment
Produce weight
5
3
4
Day 1
Day 1 Produce weight
Break in series
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Timeline
Consultationresponse
December 2014
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Consultation response
“…I would want to be very sure before making irreversible modifications to NTS protocols…the NTS has weaknesses and biases that are essentially stationary…turbulent biases are much worse…”
3 4 Day 1
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Timeline
Develop weighting
Ongoing
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The approach to weighting
• Short walk only trips by adults• Logistic regression to calculate likelihoods• Determine explanatory variables• Produce weights
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Developing back-series weight
• Age• Economic status• Car access
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Example – car access
16%
7%
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Developing back-series weight
• Age• Economic status• Car access• Gender – not significant
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Example – gender
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Developing back-series weight
• Age• Economic status• Car access• Gender• Household region• Settlement type (urban/rural)• Mobility• Income
– not significant– excluded
– excluded
– excluded– excluded
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Developing back-series weight
• Age + economic status 0-16 Full time Part-time Retired Other non-work
• Car access Main driver Other driver Non-driver No access
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Logistic regression: Day 7
Day 7 No access
Main driver Other driver non-driver
Age 0-16 0.2 0.3
Full time 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Part-time 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Retired 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Other non-work
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
With access
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Logistic regression: Day 1
Day 1 No access
Main driver Other driver non-driver
Age 0-16 0.3 0.5
Full time 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3
Part-time 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4
Retired 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Other non-work
0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4
With access
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Relative likelihoods
No access
Main driver Other driver non-driver
Age 0-16 1.1 1.5
Full time 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.0
Part-time 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.7
Retired 1.7 1.8 1.5 2.2
Other non-work
1.3 1.4 1.2 1.6
With access
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Day 7 weighted
Applying the weights
Day 7 unweighted
Day 1
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Applying the weights
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Historic likelihoods
Age 0-16
Adult, full-time
Adult, part-time
Adult, other non-work
Retired
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Further work
• Cognitive interviews• Comparisons with other studies
London Travel Demand Survey Scottish Household Survey
• Further experiment
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Timeline
Develop weighting
Short walks experiment
Further experiment
Public consultation
Consultation response
Cognitive testing
Decision on method
October 2015
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Conclusion
• Experience of formal consultation process
• Highlights the value of ONS Methodology Advisory Service
• Lessons for other household surveys
• Better data on walking for the future!