Changing demographics of college admissionsPatrick FrazierSenior Assistant Director of AdmissionsWestern Carolina University

Overview

• Demographics• Ethnic demographics• High school graduates• Competitive changes• Student control• Uncertain times

WHAT DOES “CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS” MEAN TO YOU?

Types of Demographics• Ethnicity• Gender• Age• Nationality• Education level

• High school graduate• Community college graduate• Some amount of higher education credits• No degree

CHANGING ETHNIC DEMOGRAPHIC

Changing Gender Demographics

White (non-

Hispanic)

Black (non-

Hispanic)

Asian/ Pacific

IslanderHispanic

10-year Change in National High School Graduates -107,536 -36,764 +55,048 +149,995

Mean Family Income $83,070 $53,196 $94,803 $54,196

College Enrollment Rate 29.9% 19.3% 52.3% 13.2%

Mean Distance Traveled 102 miles 98 miles 60 miles 39 miles

Average SAT Score (CR/M) 1061 860 1118 912

Average ACT Score (Composite) 22.2 16.9 23.5 18.8

% of LY Enrollments 32.9% 20.9% 23.7% 15.6%

Sources: Knocking at the College Door, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2012National Center for Education Statistics and Census Bureau CPS; 2013 College Bound Seniors – Total Group Profile Report, College Board, 2013;ACT Profile Report – National, Graduating Class 2013, ACT

What will future changes look like?• Will the current trends continue?• Have you noticed these trends on your

campus?• Missing ethnic group/classification?

• Multi-racial

New Student Diversity at WCU

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

African American Hispanic Native American Multi-racial

HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

North Carolina high school graduates20

13

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

Academic Year

Gra

duat

es

How well do you know the trends?• Why was there a dramatic drop in 2021?• How far in advance are you looking at

graduation projections in your state?• Are the projections the same in every

state?• What happens when you look at the

graduation rates based on geographic regions?

Changes in high school graduates: 2013 - 2027

SouthGrows 3.6%720 Colleges

WestGrows 0.9%407 Colleges

MidwestDeclines 3.6%543 Colleges

NortheastDeclines 2.3%515 Colleges

COMPETITIVE CHANGES

What data are you using?

• Number of suspects• Number of prospects• Applications• Accepted students• Enrolled students

Fall 2014 WCU Entering Class

• Enrolled: 1,745

• Admitted: 6,638

• Applications: 15,398

• Prospects: 55,001

• Suspects: 256,390

STUDENT CONTROL

Student Application Buyers Market

2006 2008 2010 2012

18% 15% 14% 13%

43%40%

38% 37%

40%45%

49% 50%

Number of Applications Submitted

5+

2-4

1

Source: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA ,The American Freshman, National Norms

National Yield Rate Since 2001

Source: IPEDS

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201223.0%

28.0%

33.0%

38.0%

43.0%

37.1%

25.7%

44.6%

34.5%

Private College Yield Public College Yield

UNCERTAIN TIMES

Changes occur without warning• Student preferences• Influx of new demographics of students• Loss of demographics of students• Services available for various

demographics• Unexpected changes in the number of

available students

QUESTIONS & COMMENTS