changing environment 2010 2015
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The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
CFMU User Forum ‘09
European ATM Network Perspective 2010-2015
Joe Sultana, Deputy Director CFMU
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CFMU User Forum 2009 2
Forecast Traffic Evolution 2010 - 2015
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- %5
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%55
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Annual
Growth
Long-TermAverage Growth
Actual
Traffic
Long-Term
Trend
Forecast
Traffic
F l i g h t s i n
E u r o p e ( M i l l i o n )
A n
n u a l G r o w t h
IFR traffic in Europe
- historical figures55555555
- forecast11111111
Latest Baseline forecasts+2% in 2010; +3.5% in 2011; +2.7% p.a. for 2012 – 2015
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CFMU User Forum 2009 3
Since CFMU User’s Day 2008
• Crisis in aviation industry hitting AOs, ANSPs
• Network performance reasonable, given traffic downturn
• SES II comes into force
• SESAR activities launched
• ATFM Implementing Role adopted
• New concept for Europe: Free Route airspace operations
introduced in 2 FIRs + Ireland to implement in December
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CFMU User Forum 2009 4
Perceived Changes in Focus of
Aircraft Operators and ANSPs
AOs
• Survival is main focus of many aircraft operators
• Flight Efficiency is the latest buzz word – but responds to AOs
flight ops department objectives
• Emissions trading scheme closer to introduction
ANSPs
• Non-essential ANSP investments slowed/stopped
• ANSPs less likely to ‘buy’ capacity thro’ overtime
• Staff recruitment to alleviate shortages maintained
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CFMU User Forum 2009 5
Changes in focus for CFMU
• Performance of day-to-day operations to be re-enforced thro’ re-
organisation of CFMU Current Ops (completed March 2010)
• Continuous monitoring of demand/capacity picture shared with local
ANSPS and airports
• Delays not anymore only performance driver of CFMU
• Flight efficiency/emissions performance indicators will dominate
political agenda
• ATFCM is one part of network operations cycle• Airspace design, airspace management and airspace utilisation must
be one linked operation – and measured as such
• Consideration of time as ATFM tool in 4-D business trajectories
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CFMU User Forum 2009 6
European Regulation on ATFM
• Adopted by Single Sky Committee 3 December 2009
• Comes into force 18 months after publication in Official
Journal
• Defines the roles and responsibilities of the actors:
• EU Members States.
• Central Unit for ATFM.
• ATS Services.
• Aircraft Operators.
•Airport Operators.
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Highlights of ATFM Regulation
• Seeks to optimise available capacity of EATMN and enhancing
ATFM processes
• Re-enforces and builds upon ICAO ATFM principles and
provision
• Clarifies the relationship with the airport slot process
• Monitoring of Compliance of ATFM slot, missing/multiple FPLs
• Performance assessment of causes, impact and adherence of ATFM measures
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Single European Sky 2
• Single European Sky has added a political dimension to the
technical drive to improve and update Europe’s Air Traffic
Management system
• SES 2 comes after a review of progress of initial SES
regulation
• Four pilllars
• Network manager
• Performance targets
• decided Network-wide, delivered locally and regionally
• Management of scarce resources – capacity, SSR codes,
R/T frequencies
• Drive for quicker FABs implementation
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• SES Key performance areas
• Capacity• Environment• Cost efficiency• Safety
• NM function to advise the PRB from an independent network
perspective on the operational optimisation of the European
ANS network (Capacity, Flight Efficiency)
• First Community targets for period 2012-2014
• Apportionment of Community targets among States/FABs.
• Subsequent target periods - 5years
SES Performance Targets
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Capacity Performance and ATM
Strategic objective for SES capacity performance framework is:
“To provide sufficient capacity to accommodate the demand in typical
busy hour periods without imposing significant operational, economic or environmental penalties under normal circumstances”
NMD and ANSPs to match capacity with demand, both in the planning
phase and in the tactical phase (en-route ATFCM).
The capacity proposed KPI is the percentage of IFR flights delayed
by more than 15 minutes due to en-route ATFM delays (all delay
causes).
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Environment and ATM
• Environment Package addressed –• aircraft noise• gaseous emissions
• local air quality• greenhouse gases
• Large communality between reducing emissions and airspaceuser requirement to minimise fuel burn
• Flight efficiency is best measured network-wide;
• Horizontal flight efficiency will be basis for KPI in firstperformance period
• NMD to draw up a European Route Network Improvement Planincluding vertical flight efficiency, terminal/airport operations in
second performance period
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Network Approach
Some of the areas benefiting from a European network approach:
• Airspace and Route design
• Initial Flight Plan processing
• Common reference for airspace infrastructure
• Data sharing• Management of SSR codes
• Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management
• Flight Efficiency
• Airports interface
Needs a coordinating function to deliver results
The SES Network Manager SES Network Manager
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Network Manager High-level Objective
• The Network Manager will, in an operational partnership
with clear roles and responsibilities, support ANSPs to
deliver their local and FAB targets and deliver network
performance targets with the support of ANSPS.
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Network Manager and ANSPs together…
• Prepare rolling Network Operations Plan
• Creating needed capacity
• Exploiting available capacity
• Provide opportunities for user preferred flight profiles
• Monitor network performance on day of operations,
minimising impact of capacity/demand imbalances
• Look at deficiencies across network
• Capacity
• Infrastructure - Airspace, CNS, ATS systems
• Gate-to-gate
• Inter ANSPs/FAB interfaces
• Plan, coordinate, deploy
• remedial actions, new technologies, SESAR deliverables
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Network Manager Timescales
• Key dates from European Commission SES II (draft) Road Map
• Mid 2010 - performance targets
• End 2010 - network manager designation
• End 2012 - FABs establishment
• EUROCONTROL re-organisation in 2010 to be able to receive
NM designation addressing both
• network operations planning and management
• Support and coordination of operational/technical deployments
of ATM/CNS improvement enablers
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CFMU User Forum 2009 16
Persistent Demand Capacity imbalances require two parallel
solutions
• Operational ATFCM measures
• Accurate demand and capacity availability data
• Network-wide coordinated approach
• Strategic network capacity improvements incl
• Airspace Network design,
• Airspace management operational procedures,
• Network technical enablers
Overcoming European ATM
Network Constraints
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CFMU User Forum 2009 17
Flight Efficiency - European Network Perspective
Enabled by DMEAN
Best possible airspace structure (enroute & TMAs)
Ensure least possible number/duration of airspace
utilisation restrictions
Dynamic management of restrictions/airspace for maximum exploitation
Efficient Air Traffic Management and airport operations on the day
Evaluate results network-wide
Design intonetwork
Post Ops
Analysis
Apply acrossnetwork
Enable with
coordinated
processes
Remove constraining
procedures
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CFMU User Forum 2009 18
CFMU Ops Room Changes - Jan 2010
Major changes to organisation and internal procedures
• Current Operations Managers 0600hrs – 2200hrs
• Post Ops manager and systematic analysis process• Flight Efficiency Support position
• 2 additional Aircraft Operator Liaison officers
• Military Liaison Officers
• Airspace data – RAD /AIRAC management Live Updates
• Flight Efficiency Training and Awareness
• Ops staff participation in development projects
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CFMU User Forum 2009 19
A Plan for Continuous Improvements
Short term > 2011
• Dynamic Management of the European Airspace Network
(DMEAN)
• Flight Efficiency Plan
• Medium term >2013
• FABs
• Network Manager
• First deliverables from SESAR
Long term < 2013
• SESAR deliverables
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CFMU User Forum 2009 20
Linking CDM airport with Network
Objectives & Benefits
To share dynamic traffic information with the
network
• Accurate departure estimates enable better demandcalculation
• Improved demand calculation results in flow and capacity
management
• Enhance ATFM slot compliance / reduce number of wasted
slots
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CFMU User Forum 2009 21
ATH
AMS
BCN
BRU
BUD
LHR
LIS
MXP
MUC
CDG
ARN
ZRH
OSL
PRA
VIE
DUB
FCO
IST
WAW
MAD
GVA
FRA
MAN
HEL
PMI
LYS
HER
BBIDUS
HAM
AYT
Results of A-CDM Implementation
27 airports have commenced A-CDM27 airports have commenced A-CDM20 airports have committed to A-CDM20 airports have committed to A-CDM
16 airports are implementing or partially16 airports are implementing or partiallyimplemented A-CDMimplemented A-CDM
3 airports have implemented A-CDM locally3 airports have implemented A-CDM locally
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CFMU User Forum 2009 22
Potential Reduction in Network Performance
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CFMU User Forum 2009 23
•Various ATS System upgrades 2010-2012 will bringcapacity improvements once implemented
•Pre-implementation phase will have significantimpact, requiring network planning/preparation tomitigate resulting capacity shortfalls
•South East Axis flows managed to overcomebottleneck points
•Quick wins from prospective FABs, includingmanaged civil/military solutions to exploit all
airspace/CDRs
•Local/regional improvements complemented bynetwork operational partnership approach
•
Need to stay ahead of the capacity delay curve
Looking Ahead 2010 - 2012
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CFMU User Forum 2009 24
Looking Ahead 2013-2015
• First Performance framework in force
• Widespread Free Route, at least in upper airspace ?
• 100 airports linked to network through Airport CDM ?
• Specific traffic management procedures between major
European airport hubs ?
• Updated Airspace situation available real time?
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CFMU U F 2009 25
Conclusion
• Challenging times – awaiting SESAR
• Traffic will return – pressure on operating costs will be even
greater
• Changing, stronger institutional structures
• Network manager role is about performance
• Not to police but to work with ANSPs to deliver what
airspace users need
• CFMU will evolve into an integral part of the networkoperations management part of NM
• Working with ANSPs to deliver what airspace users need –
less delays, more flight efficiency