changing housing systems and the risks for social exclusion
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Presentation given by Marja Elsinga, NL at the Ninth European Research Conference on Homelessness, "Homelessness in Times of Crisis", Warsaw, September 2014 http://feantsaresearch.org/spip.php?article222&lang=enTRANSCRIPT
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Changing Housing Systems
Marja Elsinga, Delft University of Technology
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9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Housing tenures
Lessons from the crisis
Housing agenda
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Home ownership, a European
dream?
All European governments encourage
home ownership: formal institution
“Home ownership dream” as an informal
institution
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Home ownership in the EU27, EU-SILC 2009
Largest (>75%) in
Eastern, Southern
Europe, BE
Around 65 - 75%:
UK, IE, SE, PL
Relatively low (<
60%) in GE, AT, DE,
DK, FI, CZ and NL
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
5
Home ownership in Europe, Sources: Catte et al (2004), Scanlon and Whitehead (2007), EMF (2010),MRI (1996), Balchin
(1996)
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Home ownership by income quartile, EU-SILC 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%G
erm
any
Aust
ria
Neth
erlands
Belg
ium
Sw
eden
Denm
ark
Fin
land
Port
ugal
Italy
Gre
ece
Spain UK
Irela
nd
Pola
nd
Hungary
Slo
venia
Corporatist Social democrat Mediterranean Liberal Eastern Europe
1st (low) 2nd 3rd 4th (high)
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Rental sector (%) by hh income. EUSILC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sw
itse
rland
Germ
any
Aust
ria
Neth
erlands
Denm
ark
Fra
nce
Sw
eden
Luxum
burg
United K
ingdom
Belg
ium
Fin
land
Irela
nd
Italy
Port
ugal
Slo
venia
Pola
nd
Est
onia
Latv
ia
Spain
Bulg
aria
Hungary
Slo
vakia
Lithuania
Cro
atia
Rom
ania
income per household
income per household
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sw
itse
rland
Germ
any
Aust
ria
Neth
erlands
Denm
ark
Fra
nce
Sw
eden
Luxum
burg
United K
ingdom
Belg
ium
Fin
land
Irela
nd
Italy
Port
ugal
Slo
venia
Pola
nd
Est
onia
Latv
ia
Spain
Bulg
aria
Hungary
Slo
vakia
Lithuania
Cro
atia
Rom
ania
rental
rental
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Reasons to encourage home ownership
Make households build equity
Help households to achieve the preferred tenure or
dream
Empower people, create better citizens
Increase involvement in neighbourhoods
“Reduce government involvement”
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Lessons
Countries with higher incomes do not necessarily have
higher homer ownership rates, on the contrary
Home ownership for all is not a realistic solution for all
Home ownership as superior tenure: strong beliefs,
weak evidence
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Housing tenures
Lessons from the crisis
Housing agenda
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Average house price change, Knight Frank, 2012
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
House price change, 2012, Eurostat
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Evaluation: North America, Europe, SE Asia (Bardhan et al, 2012: Global housing markets: crisis, policies and institutions)
Governments also speculated in real estate market
Most deregulated financial systems were in worst
position
Countries who did well: developed safeguards following
previous bubbles (Hong Kong, Korea)
Three conditions may reduce the chance for a bubble:
Full recourse
Prepayment penalties
Absence of mortgage deductibility
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Journal Housing and the Built
Environment, 2014/2 Regulation of the mortgage market:
Sweden learned from the 1990 crisis
German: good regulation, no boom
Australia, introduced proper regulation before
Basel III, no crisis
France regulation, quick recovery
Ireland: regulation is necessary, hard lesson
from the ciris
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Journal Housing and the Built
Environment, 2014/2 Home ownership harder to access
Housing on the political agenda:
No (Sweden, Germany, Italy)
Yes as subject for budget cuts:
Reductions housing benefit (UK)
Landlord levy (NL)
Private rental as solution (UK, NL)
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Housing Studies 5/2014
Private rental as solution (UK, NL)
More security in PRS? Australia
Less security in PRS? Netherlands, Germany
Social housing as ambulance, reducing security
of tenure (UK, Australia)
More room for temporary contracts?
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Housing tenures
Lessons from the crisis
Housing agenda
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Social/public renting
Size of sector varies
Support is under discussion: social housing
as a problem
Budget cuts governments
Level playing field debate
But also debate about the role of social
rental housing for social inclusion and labour
market mobility: social housing as a solution
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Thinking on social housing (Dutch example)
Kemeny: unitary rental sector: good for
people, no ghetto
In practice liberal discourse in
dominating: rent increases, landlord levy
Social democrats fighting for broad sector
In reality:
Low incomes concentrate
Affordability problems
Harder access
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Private renting
Is a satisfying rate of return realistic for providing
affordable housing for those in need?
If not:
stay out of the market
neglect maintenance/quality
ask rents that are not affordable
insecure contracts
During the industrial revolution private renting was the
majority tenure. The reason for establishing housing
policy
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Lessons for future policy:
Governments can prevent speculation and bubbles
But: they can aim at more stable housing systems:
Not speculate on the real estate cycle (tax/land)
Protect from over speculation (financial markets)
Interaction rental and owner occupied market
Housing is a basic need, adequate housing prevents
many other problems
Governments need to rethink their role in housing:
Reconsider promoting the dream of home ownership
Facilitate arrangements based on solidarity and trust: social
innovation and social enterprises
9th European Research Conference
Homelessness in Times of Crisis
Warsaw, Friday 19th September 2014
Lessons for future research:
Create better understanding of housing systems by:
Focus on behaviour and institutions
Acknowledge that housing is connected to welfare,
economy, urban development & sustainability
Better comparative research and understand
conditions for mutual learning
Integrate network: the role of intergenerational
solidarity