UNITED STATES

CHANGING PE TRADE FLOWS IN AN UNCERTAIN MARKETThe European polyethylene (PE) industry is in a state of flux in 2019 affected by many external influences which are also impacting other regions

New shale-based ethylene and PE from the US needs to find its place in the market and this is being made increasingly difficult with tariffs on US PE into China This infographic examines the changes to the global markets amid extensive new US capacity the potential impact of a USChina trade war upcoming cracker outages in Europe and the impact on PE pricing

By Linda Naylor and Katherine Sale

NEW PLANT EXPANSIONS (ktyear) WORLD OLEFINS amp POLYOLEFIN CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY REGION 2017-2022 (million tonnes)

Expansions of existing US crackers plus 1 restartEthylene New US crackers complete under construction through 2019

Company Capacity (ktyear) Location StatusStart-Up

LyondellBasell 363 Corpus Christi Texas Fully started up Q2 2017

Westlake Chemical 32 Calvert City Kentucky Started up Apr 2017

Indorama (restart) 440 Lake Charles Louisiana Dec-18

Dow 91 Orange Texas H1 2019

Dow 500 Freeport Texas 2020

INEOS 270 Chocolate Bayou Texas 2020

LyondellBasell 250 Channelview Texas Evaluating for 2020s

DOW CHEMICAL400 ELITE PE

Q3 2017 Freeport

350 LDPEQ4 2017

Plaquemine

DOW CHEMICAL600 PE (unspec)

2021-2023 US Gulf Coast

350 PE (unspec)2021-2023

US Global Debottlenecks

NORTHAMERICA

SOUTH amp CENTRALAMERICA

EUROPE

AFRICA

FORMER USSR

NORTH EAST ASIA

ASIA PACIFIC

MIDDLE EAST

2722 25

06

0 01 01 0

38 33 3629

193197

14

102

0 0 01 0

31 3218 16

03 02 090

102

2113

128

Assuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobilContributing editorndash Joseph Chang Contributing analyst - Lorenzo Meazza and Fabrizio Galie PPPE PropyleneEthylene

Company Capacity (ktyear) Downstream (ktyear) Location Start-

UpLotteWestlake 1000 MEG (760) by Lotte feed into

existing PVC for WestlakeSt Charles Louisiana

H1 2019

Shintech 500 VCM (400) PVC (290) caustic soda (270)

Plaquemine Louisiana

H1 2019

Formosa Plastics 1200 HDPE (400) LDPE (400) EG (800)

Point Comfort Texas

H2 2019

Sasol 1500LLDPE (470) LDPE (420) EOEG (300) ethoxylates detergent alcohols (300)

Lake Charles Louisiana

H2 2019

Company Capacity (ktyear) Downstream (ktyear) Location Start-

UpOxyChemMexichem 544 Feed existing VCM plant of 1050 Ingleside

TexasQ1

2017

Dow Chemical 1500

ELITE PE (400) LDPE (350) ndash Plaquemine Louisiana EPDM (200) elastomers (320)

Freeport Texas

Q3 2017

Chevron Phillips Chemical

1725 Bimodal HDPE (500) mLLDPE (500) both at Old Ocean

Cedar Bayou Texas

Q1 2018

ExxonMobil Chemical 1500 mLLDPE plus LLDPE (650 x2) at

Mont BelvieuBaytown Texas

Q3 2018

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICALS

700HDPE (2x350) Belmont County

NOVA CHEMICALS

430 LLDPE2022 Sarnia

Canada

SHELL1600

HDPELLDPE (2x 550)HDPE (500)Early 2020s

Monaca

SHELL1500

HDPELLDPE (2x 550) HDPE (500)Early 2020s

Monaca

PTTGCDAELIM1000

HDPE (700)MEG (500) EO (100)

2021 Belmont County

2nd wave of new US cracker projects

North America PE expansions

DOW CHEMICAL125 Bimodal HDPE

Q4 2018 St Charles

FORMOSA PETROCHEMICALS

1200LLDPE (400)

HDPE (400) EG (900)2022

St James Parish

INEOSSASOL470 HDPEQ4 2017 La Porte

SASOL890

LLDPE (470)LDPE (420)

Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Lake Charles

FORMOSA PLASTICS

800HDPE (400) LDPE (400)

H2 2019 Point

Comfort

TOTALBOREALIS

NOVA625 Borstar PE

2021 BayportSABIC

EXXONMOBILPE unspec (2 units)

H1 2022 Corpus Christi

TOTALBOREALISNOVA1000

Borstar PE (625) + existing PE (400)

End 2020 Port Arthur

SABICEXXONMOBIL

1800PE (2 units)

MEGH1 2022

Corpus Christi

CHEVRON PHILLIPS

CHEMICAL US Gulf Coast

LYONDELLBASELL500 HDPEQ3 2019 La Porte

CHEVRON PHILLIPS

CHEMICAL1000

Bimodal HDPE (500)mLLDPE (500)

Q3 2017 Old Ocean

EXXONMOBIL CHEMICAL650 LLDPE

2019 Beaumont

1300mLLDPE plus

LLDPE (2 x 650)Q4 2017

Mont Belvieu

UZBEKISTAN

SINGAPORE

SOUTH KOREA

TURKEY

2018

146

2017

251

2016

212

2016

125

2017

153

2018

176

2016

536

2017

551

2018

613

2016

5

2017

9

2018

81

US

INDIA

EGYPT

IRAN

5

2016

36

2017

44

2018

240

2016

221

2017

200

2018

129

2016

103

2017

121

201898

2016

133

2017

134

2018

126

2016

104

2017

70

2018

79

2016

36

2017

81

2018

118

2016

80

2017

60

2018

29

2016

24

2017

19

2018

89

2016

140

2017

148

2018

9

2016

54

2017

33

2018

79

2016

92

2017

58

2018

SAUDI ARABIA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

kilo

to

nn

es

3500

495 kt

190 kt

3075 kt

1371 kt 1252 kt

1307 kt 982 kt

EUROPE INDIA VIETNAM PAKISTAN PHILIPPINESTURKEY INDONESIA

BE READY TO MOVE AS FAST AS YOUR MARKETS WITH NEW INTERACTIVE ANALYTICS TOOLS FROM ICISDrawing on the knowledge expertise and reach of a global network of reporters our coverage of the petrochemical industry spans more than 180 chemicals including PE PP Ethylene and Propylene

Benchmark your position with ICIS data alongside new tools including

n New Live Disruption Tracker Impact Viewn Live Disruption Tracker Supply Viewn New Price Optimisation Analyticsn Price Drivers Analytics n New Margin Analyticsn Supply amp Demand Outlooks

ICIS SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATA FOR THE POLYOLEFINS MARKET Covering over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical data from 1978 and forecast available up to 2040 this powerful data and analytics service from ICIS helps senior management strategists business planners analysts and risk managers to

n Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities

n Identify and manage financial or investment risks

n Validate commercial and growth strategies

KATHERINE SALESENIOR EDITOR

MANAGERKatherinesaleiciscom

LINDA NAYLORSENIOR EDITOR

Lindanayloriciscom

USCHINA TRADE WAR

EUROPEAN CRACKER OUTAGES

TURKEY POLYOLEFIN SHIFTS

Turkey imports 2016-2018 (kilo tonnes)

Source TurkstatContributing editor ndash Ben Lake

Note This information is according to sources and may not be confirmed by the companies involved Contributing editor ndash Nel Weddle

Contributing consultant ndash John Richardson

If the US cannot export to China but it still runs plants as hard as we expect

n Scenario 1 Naphtha cracker operators forced to cut back operating rates - possibly consolidate

n Scenario 2 Naphtha players win trade protection and US forced to cut back

Economic contraction has had a significant effect on Turkish import levels of PE and PP in 2018 Import levels for nearly all polyolefins were significantly down from the previous year contracting what had previously been a growing market

Trade flows also shifted significantly due to political tensions and new production capacities resulting in a major transitional year for the Turkish plastics market

LLDPE net importers excluding China 2019-2020

Cracker maintenance 2019

PP

LLDPE

HDPE

BPRP6 weeks

end Aug-mid Oct Gelsenkirchen 3

DOW6 weeks

May-June Boehlen

BASF5 weeks

18 Aug-30 Sep Ludwigshafen 1

SHELL8 weeks

16 April - 21 June Moerdijk

BASF6-8 weeks

1 May-16 June Antwerp

REPSOL6-7 weeksOct-Nov Tarragona

LYONDELLBASELLSep-Oct

Wesseling 4

INEOSH2 2019

4-6 weeks Grangemouth

HIP PETROHEMIJA5 weeks

20 March-25 April Pancevo

DOW6 weeksSep-Oct

Terneuzen 1

VERSALIS6 weeksSep-Oct

Priolo

SABIC6 weeksSep-Oct Geleen 4

Experience your new ICIScom platform

on your mobile

Request a demo Find out more

UZBEKISTAN

SINGAPORE

SOUTH KOREA

TURKEY

2018

146

2017

251

2016

212

2016

125

2017

153

2018

176

2016

536

2017

551

2018

613

2016

5

2017

9

2018

81

US

INDIA

EGYPT

IRAN

5

2016

36

2017

44

2018

240

2016

221

2017

200

2018

129

2016

103

2017

121

201898

2016

133

2017

134

2018

126

2016

104

2017

70

2018

79

2016

36

2017

81

2018

118

2016

80

2017

60

2018

29

2016

24

2017

19

2018

89

2016

140

2017

148

2018

9

2016

54

2017

33

2018

79

2016

92

2017

58

2018

SAUDI ARABIA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

kilo

to

nn

es

3500

495 kt

190 kt

3075 kt

1371 kt 1252 kt

1307 kt 982 kt

EUROPE INDIA VIETNAM PAKISTAN PHILIPPINESTURKEY INDONESIA

BE READY TO MOVE AS FAST AS YOUR MARKETS WITH NEW INTERACTIVE ANALYTICS TOOLS FROM ICISDrawing on the knowledge expertise and reach of a global network of reporters our coverage of the petrochemical industry spans more than 180 chemicals including PE PP Ethylene and Propylene

Benchmark your position with ICIS data alongside new tools including

n New Live Disruption Tracker Impact Viewn Live Disruption Tracker Supply Viewn New Price Optimisation Analyticsn Price Drivers Analytics n New Margin Analyticsn Supply amp Demand Outlooks

ICIS SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATA FOR THE POLYOLEFINS MARKET Covering over 100 petrochemical commodities across 160 countries with historical data from 1978 and forecast available up to 2040 this powerful data and analytics service from ICIS helps senior management strategists business planners analysts and risk managers to

n Identify evaluate and optimise opportunities

n Identify and manage financial or investment risks

n Validate commercial and growth strategies

KATHERINE SALESENIOR EDITOR

MANAGERKatherinesaleiciscom

LINDA NAYLORSENIOR EDITOR

Lindanayloriciscom

USCHINA TRADE WAR

EUROPEAN CRACKER OUTAGES

TURKEY POLYOLEFIN SHIFTS

Turkey imports 2016-2018 (kilo tonnes)

Source TurkstatContributing editor ndash Ben Lake

Note This information is according to sources and may not be confirmed by the companies involved Contributing editor ndash Nel Weddle

Contributing consultant ndash John Richardson

If the US cannot export to China but it still runs plants as hard as we expect

n Scenario 1 Naphtha cracker operators forced to cut back operating rates - possibly consolidate

n Scenario 2 Naphtha players win trade protection and US forced to cut back

Economic contraction has had a significant effect on Turkish import levels of PE and PP in 2018 Import levels for nearly all polyolefins were significantly down from the previous year contracting what had previously been a growing market

Trade flows also shifted significantly due to political tensions and new production capacities resulting in a major transitional year for the Turkish plastics market

LLDPE net importers excluding China 2019-2020

Cracker maintenance 2019

PP

LLDPE

HDPE

BPRP6 weeks

end Aug-mid Oct Gelsenkirchen 3

DOW6 weeks

May-June Boehlen

BASF5 weeks

18 Aug-30 Sep Ludwigshafen 1

SHELL8 weeks

16 April - 21 June Moerdijk

BASF6-8 weeks

1 May-16 June Antwerp

REPSOL6-7 weeksOct-Nov Tarragona

LYONDELLBASELLSep-Oct

Wesseling 4

INEOSH2 2019

4-6 weeks Grangemouth

HIP PETROHEMIJA5 weeks

20 March-25 April Pancevo

DOW6 weeksSep-Oct

Terneuzen 1

VERSALIS6 weeksSep-Oct

Priolo

SABIC6 weeksSep-Oct Geleen 4

Experience your new ICIScom platform

on your mobile

Request a demo Find out more