changing profile of unemployed, underemployed, marginally ...€¦ · who are overqualified for the...

Changing Profile of Unemployed, Underemployed, Marginally Attached to the

Workforce and Non-Working Ontarians

Prepared for

Ontario Centre for Workforce Innovation

By

B. Moazzami, Ph.D.

Professor of Economics

Lakehead University

May 2017

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY………………………………………………………………... 1

INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………. 20

Sources of Data Used in this Study…………………………………………………………23

Population Groups Studied in this Report………………………………………………… 24

PART I: ONTARIO’S CHANGING LABOUR MARKET..………………………………25

Employment Growth and Family Structure………………………………………………... 31

PART II: TRENDS IN LABOUR MARKET INDICATORS IN ONTARIO…………….. 33

Duration of Unemployment…………………………………………………………………41

Trends in Other Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Unemployed, Underemployed and

Marginal Workers in Ontario………………………………………………………………. 44

Highest Level of Educational Achievement……………………………………………….. 45

Marital Status of Unemployed, Underemployed and Marginal Workers………………….. 47

Socio-Economic Characteristics of Non-Working Ontarians……………………………… 50

PART III: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG TOTAL

POPULATION IN ONTARIO…………………………………………………………….. 54

Total Population in Ontario……………………………………………………………….. 55

Labour Force Participation Rate by Age and Geography………………………………….. 57

Employment Rate by Age and Geography………………………………………………… 59

Total Unemployment Rate by Age and Geography……………………………………….. 61

Labour Market Indicators by Highest Level of Educational Attainment………………….. 62

Labour Market Indicators by Economic Family Structure………………………………… 66

Labour Market Performance of Persons with Disabilities ………………………………… 68

Socio-Economic Profile of Low-Income Persons Aged 25 to 64 Receiving Government

Assistance………………………………………………………………………………….. 70

PART IV: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THE

FRANCOPHONE POPULATION IN ONTARIO………………………………………… 75

Labour Force Participation Rate of Francophone Population by Age and Geography……..76

Employment Rate by Age and Geography………………………………………………….78

Unemployment Rate by Age and Geography……………………………………… ………80

Labour Market Indicators by Highest Level of Educational Attainment for

Francophone Population…………………………………………………………………… 82


Labour Market Performance of Persons with Disabilities ………………………………....88

Socio-Economic Profile of Francophones Receiving Social Assistance…………………... 90

PART V: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THE

ABORIGINAL POPULATION IN ONTARIO………………………………………….....93


Employment Rate of Aboriginal People by Age and Geography…………………………. 98





Socio-Economic Profile of the Aboriginal Population Receiving Social Assistance……… 110

PART VI: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THE

IMMIGRANT POPULATION IN ONTARIO…………………………………………….. 113


Employment Rate by Age and Geography………………………………………………… 116

Total Unemployment Rate by Age and Geography………………………………………... 119




Socio-Economic Profile of Persons Receiving Social Assistance…………………………. 128

PART VII: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THE

VISIBLE MINORITY POPULATION IONTARIO………………………………………. 131


Employment Rate by Age and Geography………………………………………………….134




Labour Market Performance of Visible Minority Persons with Disabilities ……………… 143

Socio-Economic Profile of Visible Minorities Receiving Government Assistance……….. 146

PART VIII: CONCLUDING REMARKS………………………………………………… 149

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The objective of the present study has been to provide baseline information about the socio-

economic characteristics and the changing profile of unemployed, underemployed, marginally

attached to the workforce and non-working Ontarians in rural and urban Ontario during the past

four decades. Policies aimed at improving employment opportunities for the above groups as well

as those on social assistance need to be based on detailed information on who they are, what their

labour market characteristics are and where they reside. The present report aims at providing some

of the necessary information.

The study focuses on four segments of the provincial population namely Francophones,

Aboriginals, immigrants and visible minorities. The total provincial population is used as a

benchmark. The report pays special attention to geography and examines whether distance from

urban centres influences labour market outcome. The role of age, gender, education, family

structure, ethnicity and disability on labour market outcome are explored. The study raises a series

of questions such as whether there are differences in labour market performance and outcome of

Francophones, Aboriginals, immigrants and visible minority populations. We ask whether a

university degree guarantees employment. Does age or experience affect the likelihood of

employability? Do post-secondary credentials obtained from Canada and those obtained from

abroad influence job market outcome? What role does family structure play in the process? Is the

likelihood of unemployment and poverty higher among lone-parent families? What is the impact

of disability on labour market performance and the likelihood of employment or unemployment?

Have the social assistance recipients ever worked? Who are they and who are the ones who have

never worked? These are some of the questions this study investigates based on detailed microdata

from various Statistics Canada sources. In what follows, we first review some of the recent changes

in the provincial economy and its labour market. Then, we provide a summary of the findings

related to the total provincial population, Francophone population, Aboriginal population,

immigrants and visible minorities.

Changing Ontario’s Labour Market

Ontario is Canada’s largest province and has been the manufacturing heartland of Canada for

decades. The provincial economy has undergone significant change during the past four decades.

One of the important changes has been a dramatic decline of manufacturing employment. The

changing structure of Ontario’s economy has also been reflected in the changing sectoral

composition of its employed labour force (Figure 1). The share of employment in the

manufacturing sector declined from 23.2 percent in 1976 to 10.8 percent in 2016. Similarly, the

share of employment in the goods-producing sectors declined from 35.5 percent in 1976 to 20.2

percent in 2016. On the other hand, the share of the service producing industries rose from 64.5

percent in 1976 to 79.8 percent in 2016. The composition of the employed labour force has also

changed. During 1976-2016, the share of full-time employment declined from 86.5 to 80.8 percent

while the share of part-time employment rose from 13.5 to 19.2 percent.

In fact, part-time employment has been the fastest growing segment of the employed labour force

since 1976. Recent years have witnessed a trend towards part-time employment being the main

2

driver of job creation in Canada. As Figure 2 shows, part-time employment in the service industry

has seen a growth of about 280 percent during the same period. Full-time employment in the

service-producing sectors has also increased by about 218 percent. In absolute terms, full-time

employment among men aged 15 to 64 years rose from 2,113 thousands in 1976 to 3,016 thousands

in 2016, an annual growth rate of about 1.07 percent during the past four decades. As a reference,

the rate of growth of the working-age male population between the ages of 15 and 64 in Ontario

equaled 1.7 percent per year during the past four decades.

During the same period, full-time employment among women aged 15 to 64 rose by about 3.1

percent from 1,077 thousands to 2,410 thousands. The rate of growth of the working-age female

population equaled 1.8 percent per year during the past four decades.

Part-time employment among men aged 15 to 64 rose by 3.22 percent per year during the past four

decades. This is much greater than the 1.07 percent growth of full-time employment among men

during the same period. Similarly, part-time employment among women aged 15 to 64 rose by

4.89 percent per year during 1976-2016. Again, this is much greater than the growth rate of full-

time employment among women aged 15 to 64 during the past four decades. Another significant

recent trend has been rising labour market participation and employment of seniors which

accelerated after the 2008 economic downturn (Figure 3).

105.7

86.2

229.1

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

Figure 1: Index of Employment Growth

Goods-producing sector Manufacturing Services-producing sector

103.7

217.7

279.6

100.0 146.7

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Figure 2: Index of Full-Time & Part-Time Employment Growth

Goods-producing (FT) Services-producing (FT)

Services-producing (PT) Goods-producing(PT)

3

We note that the increased labour force participation and employment of seniors is not related to

the baby-boom generation because those individuals born between 1946 and 1964 had not yet

reached the age of 65 in 2000.

Labour Market Trends during the Past Four Decades

The past four decades have witnessed a declining labour force participation rate (PR) among men

and rising participation among women (Figure 4).

From 1953 to 1990, the labour force participation rate for women rose steadily. The early 1990

recession marked the beginning of a slowdown in the growth of the women’s labour force

participation rate. The participation gap between men and women aged 15 to 64 has narrowed

significantly from 30.2 percent in 1976 to 7.1 percent in 2016.

The participation rate among seniors were at historical low during the 1980s and 1990s (Figure 5).

It began to rise in the early 2000s and accelerated after the 2008 financial meltdown. Evidence

suggests that a larger share of people 65 and older is staying in or returning to the labor force.

36

33

114

11 13

60

-

50

100

150

Figure 3: Full-Time Employment 65+(1000s)

Male FT: 65 + Female FT:65 +

86.1 79.8

55.9

72.7

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Figure 4: Participation Rate of Persons 15-64 in Ontario (%)

PR Men:15-64 PR Women: 15-64

4

Figure 6 shows trends in employment rate of individuals aged 15 to 64 in Ontario. The employment

rate among men and women rose during the 1970s and 1980s but started to decline after the early

1990 recession and remained relatively flat ever since. The percentage employment rate of men

aged 15 to 64 has declined from 81.6 percent in 1976 to 74.0 percent in 2016. On the other hand,

the percentage of women employed has risen from a low of 51.6 percent in 1976 to 68.0 percent

in 2016. As a result, the employment gap between men and women has declined from 30.0 percent

in 1976 to 6.0 percent in 2016.

Figure 7 shows the official unemployment rate for individuals aged 15 to 64 in Ontario during the

past four decades. There is obvious cyclical behavior in the unemployment rate reflecting the

cyclical behavior of the provincial economy. The unemployment rate rises during the recessionary

period and declines during recovery.

In general, workers are classified as being either in or out of the labour force. Those who are in

the labour force are either employed or unemployed. Those who are considered employed also

include the underemployed who are people who work part-time but want a full-time job and those

who are overqualified for the jobs they have based on their education and experience. Those who

are classified as unemployed are people who do not have a job but have been looking for

17.3 18.5

4.8

11.5

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Figure 5: Participation Rate of Persons 65+ in Ontario (%)

PR Men: 65+ PR Women: 65+

81.6

74.0

51.6

68.0

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Figure 6: Employment Rate 15-64 Years of Age (%)

Men Women

5

employment during the week before the survey was taken. Those classified as not being in the

labour force are not working and are not looking for employment. Thus, they are not employed

and also not unemployed. However, there are people in the latter category who are not looking for

employment because they have not been able to find any and have given up. They are not looking

for employment because of a belief that there are no jobs available to him or her. They are referred

to as discouraged workers. Such discouragement usually happens during a recessionary period as

workers lose their jobs and then have difficulty finding another one. They generally would not

start looking for employment until they see signs of improvement in the labour market.

There is another group of workers who are not included in the labour force and thus are not

considered employed or unemployed. Those are the marginally attached workers. Marginally

attached worker is anyone who is currently not in the labor force, wants full-time work,

and has actively looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job

if they held one within the past 12 months). A marginally attached worker is not considered to be

either employed or unemployed, so they are not included in the official unemployment number.

Figure 8 shows the percentage of underemployed workers in Ontario. Underemployment among

women is much greater than that among men. It also shows that the underemployment rate rose

significantly after the 2008 financial crisis. However, the rate has not declined significantly during

the period under study. Figure 8 also shows the underemployment rate by age group. Women

whether in their prime working-age or not have the highest rate of underemployment. The prime

working-age men have the lowest rate of underemployment. In practice, the underemployment for

young workers can point to the serious barriers many of them face in entering the labour market.

5.3

12.0

7.3 7.7

6.3

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Figure 7: Unemployment Rate 15-64 Years Old

Men Women

6

Adding the estimated underemployment rate to the official unemployment rate (Figure 9) shows

that the effective unemployment rate changed from 11.4 and 16.3 percent for men and women in

1997 to 10.4 and 12.4 percent in 2016 respectively.

Figure 10 shows the percentage of the marginally attached and discouraged workers as a share of

the labour force in Ontario.

3.3

2.7 3.2

7.5

5.8

6.1

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Figure 8: Underemployment Rate 15+ (%)

Men Women

2.8 2.8

7.3 5.8

4.0

3.2

7.9

6.1

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Underemployment by Age Group (%)

Men 25-54 Women 25-54 Men 15+ Women 15+

11.4 10.4

16.3 12.4

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Figure 9: Unemployment Rate + Underemployment Rate (%)

Men Women

7

Adding the percentages in Figures 9 and 10 suggests that the official unemployment rate seriously

underestimates the effective unemployment rate faced by individuals in the workforce. In effect,

the presence of a large number of discouraged and marginally attached workers would cause the

labour force participation rate to fall causing the unemployment rate to appear much lower than it

would otherwise be.

The length of time spent unemployed tells us how difficult it is for out of work individuals to

reenter the world of employment. A high share of unemployed workers who have been looking for

employment for more than 15 weeks is generally perceived to signal a relatively difficult labor

market. Unemployment duration is an important factor determining the distributional

consequences of recessions. At one extreme, if unemployment spells are very brief, workers can

use a small stock of savings they have accumulated to smooth out their consumption across the

unemployment spells. At the other extreme, if unemployment spells are long in duration, then no

stock of savings will be large enough to allow for consumption smoothing. In general,

unemployment duration is a good predictor of whether a worker will find a job. Studies show that

the probability of unemployed workers with a given unemployment duration finding a job in the

following period is a decreasing function of duration.1

Figure 11 shows that the average duration of unemployment for prime working-age men and

women has risen from 14 weeks in 1976 to 22.6 and 18.4 weeks for men and women in 2016

respectively. For men aged 55 to 64, the average duration of unemployment has risen from 18

weeks in 1976 to 27.7 in 2016. For women aged 55 to 64, the average duration of unemployment

appears to have stayed around 18 weeks during the past four decades except for the periods of high

unemployment rates during the recessionary periods. In general, the average duration of

unemployment has been positively correlated with age. It was lowest for the youth and highest for

those 65 years of age and over.

1 K. G. Abraham and Robert Shimer, “Changes in Unemployment Duration and Labour Force Attachment”, August 29, 2001.

3.8

7.6

4.3

3.6 3.2

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Figure 10: Discouraged + Marginally Attached Workers (%)

Men 15+ Women 15+

8

Figure 12 shows the percentage of unemployed by highest level of educational attainment for men

and women in Ontario. In 1976, about 46.9 and 36.7 percent of the unemployed men and women

did not have a high school diploma respectively. Unemployment was more prevalent among the

less educated individuals. That picture of the unemployed as those with low levels of educational

attainment has changed significantly over time. In 2016, about 46.5 percent of the unemployed

men and 57.6 percent of the unemployed women have a college or university degree.

Same picture appears when examining the percentage of underemployed by highest level of

educational achievement. The share of the underemployed men and women with a bachelor’s

degree rose from 13.2 and 16.4 percent in 2010 to 20.1 and 17.9 percent in 2016 respectively.

Similarly, the share of the underemployed men and women with a graduate degree rose from 6.7

and 6.1 percent in 2010 to 11.3 and 8.5 percent in 2016 respectively. Overall, about 58.6 percent

of men and 65.6 percent of women who work part-time but would like to find a full-time job have

a college or university degree.

32.6

22.6

14.0

18.4

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 11: Average Weeks Unemployed: 25-54(%)

Men 25-54 Women 25-54

27.7

18.0

40.0

17.8

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Average Weeks Unemployed 55-64 (%)

Men: 55-64 Women 55-64

9

Figure 13 shows the marital status of unemployed men and women aged 25 and over in Ontario.

The majority of the unemployed are married. However, their share has declined during 2000-2016.

On the other hand, the share of unemployed single individuals has increased from 2000 to 2016.

19.9

27.0

32.0

9.8

5.9 5.4 2.1

14.3

27.0

10.2

24.5 22.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0 to 8 Years Some secondary Grade 11 to 13,grad

Some post-secondary

College diploma University degree

Figure 12: Percentage of Unemployed by Education for Men

1976 2016

11.8

24.9

40.1

8.1 8.9 6.2

2.0

12.4 17.6

10.5

28.1 29.5

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0 to 8 Years Some secondary Grade 11 to 13,grad

Some post-secondary


Percentage of Unemployed by Education for Women

1976 2016

50.5

7.5 0.5 3.1

7.3

31.0

44.8

9.1 0.7

3.7 5.6

36.2

62.4

6.2 2.3

4.4 6.1 18.6

45.4

10.8 0.2

2.8 7.5

33.2

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Married Living in common-law

Widowed Separated Divorced Single, nevermarried

Figure 13: Percentage Distribution of Unemployed by Marital Status (%)

Men (2000) Men (2016) Women (2000) Women (2016)

10

A similar picture appears when one examines the marital status of the underemployed men and

women aged 25 and over in Ontario. The majority of underemployed men and women are married

but their share has declined from 61.3 and 57.6 percent in 2000 to 49.9 and 48.4 percent in 2016

respectively. The share of those living in common-law has been rising. The share of

underemployed single men and women rose from 25.5 and 13.7 percent in 2000 to 33.2 and 21.1

percent in 2016 respectively.

Focusing on the economic families, it is of interest to see if the unemployed, underemployed and

marginally attached workers in an economic family have financial support from other employed

members of their family (Table 1).

Table 1: No. of Employed Persons in Economic Family

No. of Employed Unemployed Underemployed Marginal + Discouraged

Men Women Men Women Men Women

0 36.9 30.2 - - 32.0 28.7

1 34.0 45.7 33.4 29.5 30.9 38.9

2 20.7 16.5 36.7 43.5 26.3 20.7

3 8.4 7.6 29.9 27.0 10.8 11.7

Table 1 shows about 36.9 percent of the unemployed men and 30.2 percent of the unemployed

women had no employed person in their family. Similarly, about 32.0 percent of men and 28.7

percent of women who were marginally attached to the workforce had no employed person in their

family. About 33.4 percent of the underemployed men and 29.5 percent of the underemployed

women who worked part-time had no other employed person in the family. These are individuals

who are either living in poverty or are in danger of falling below the poverty line.

It is of interest to inquire into the socio-economic characteristics of those who do not participate

in the labour market and are not counted as unemployed. About 35.5 percent of individuals aged

15 and over in Ontario were not participating in the labour market in 2016. Focusing on the

population aged 25 to 64, about 19.2 percent were non-participants in the labour market. Figure

14 shows the highest level of educational attainment of the non-working Ontarians in 2016.

4.9

16.2

26.6

7.2

25.7

11.9 7.5 5.9

10.8

26.2

5.2

26.8

17.8

7.4

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0 to 8 years Somesecondary

High SchoolDiploma

Some post-secondary

Post-secondarycertificate of

diploma

Bachelor’s degree

Graduatedegree

Figure 14: Highest Education Level of Non-Working Persons Aged 25-64 (%)

Men Women

11

About 21.1 and 16.7 percent of non-working men and women respectively do not have a high

school diploma. On the other hand, 25.7 percent of non-working men and 26.8 percent of non-

working women have a post-secondary certificate or diploma. Many of the non-working

individuals between the ages of 25 and 64 have worked in the past (Figure 15).

About 16.3 and 14.6 percent of non-working men and women respectively have worked within the

last year. About 70.9 percent of men and 65.0 percent of women have worked more than one year

ago. About 12.8 percent of men and 20.4 percent of women have never worked. Analysis of the

data show that about 77.6 percent of men and 65.1 percent of women who were employed in the

past had full-time jobs. The rest or 22.4 percent of men and 34.9 percent of women who were

employed in the past had a part-time job. About 40.0 percent of those who worked in the past had

lost their employment due to economic conditions, including business closure, end of seasonal or

temporary jobs, company moving, etc.

Table 2 shows the percentage age distribution of the non-working Ontarians who have never

worked.

Table 2: Percentage Age Distribution of Individuals Who Never Worked

Age Group Percentage

25 to 29 17.5

30 to 34 16.0

35 to 39 11.0

40 to 44 12.5

45 to 49 10.4

50 to 54 10.7

55 to 59 9.6

60 to 64 12.3

Total Percentage 100.0

16.3

70.9

12.8 14.6

65.0

20.4

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Yes, within last year Yes, more than 1 year ago No, never worked

Figure 15: Percentage of Non-Working: When Last Worked (%)

Men Women

12

Table 2 shows that those who never worked are in all age groups. About 78.1 percent of them are

in their prime working-age. Using the 2016 Labour Force Survey, Table 3 shows the highest level

of educational attainment of those who never worked.

Table 3: Highest Level of Educational Attainment in 2016 (%)

Level of Education Percentage

0 to 8 years 16.5

Some secondary 13.7

Grade 11 to 13, grad 27.1

Some post-secondary 3.7

University: bachelor’s degree 14.5

University: graduate degree 9.0

Total Percentage 100.0

About 30.2 percent of those who never worked do not have a high school diploma. 27.1 percent

have obtained their high school diploma. About 14.5 percent have a bachelor’s degree and 9.0

percent have a graduate degree.

Figure 16 shows the marital status of the non-working Ontarians aged 25 to 64 in 2016. About

55.0 percent of men and 70.9 percent of women aged 25 to 64 were either married or living in a

common-law relationship. Labour Force Survey data show that about 18.6 and 9.6 percent of

married men and women without a child had no working individual in the family in 2016. Also,

about 6.8 and 3.8 percent of married men and women with a child below the age of 18 years had

no member of the family working. Finally, 2.6 and 1.3 percent of married men and women with

children between the ages of 18 to 24 had no employment income. About 33.4 percent of non-

working men and 15.4 percent of non-working women were single. About a quarter of the non-

working singles are between the ages of 25 and 29. The rest are approximately uniformly

distributed between 30 and 64 years of age.

Figure 17 shows the percentage distribution of non-working single men and women by highest

level of educational attainment in 2016. About 25.9 and 22.1 percent of non-working single men

and women do not have a high school diploma. About 27.9 and 23.6 percent of non-working single

46.8

8.21.6 3.2 6.9

33.4

64.2

6.7 3.9 4.2 5.615.4

0

20

40

60

80

Married Living in common-law

Widowed Separated Divorced Single, nevermarried

Figure 16: Marital Status of Non-Working Persons aged 25-64 (%)

Men Women

13

men and women have a high school diploma. About 8.6 and 14.1 percent of men and women

respectively have a university degree and 5.5 and 4.6 percent of them have a graduate degree. It is

likely that many of these individuals are among the discouraged workers who have not been able

to find employment in the past.

Spatial Dimensions of Unemployment among Various Population Groups

Part III to VII of the study focus on socio-economic profile of the unemployed and non-working

individuals in Ontario and pay special attention to rural-urban distinction. The study examines

labour force participation, employment and unemployment rates and investigates the effect of

family structure and disability on labour market outcome of various population groups living in

rural and urban Ontario. In addition, we investigate various socio-economic characteristics of

transfer payment recipients between the ages of 25 and 64 who are not employed, are members of

low-income families or persons and receive more than $1000 in transfer payments.

Figure 18 shows the geographical distribution of the total provincial population in 2011. We use

Statistics Canada’s rural and small town concept to differentiate between rural and urban areas.

Figure 18 shows that about 80.0 percent of Ontario’s population lives in Census Metropolitan

Areas (CMA) and 8.7 percent lives in Census Agglomerations (CA). Therefore, about 88.8 percent

of the province’s population lives in urban areas. The rest or 11.2 percent lives in rural and small

town areas with different degrees of rurality. The majority of the provincial population living in

5.6

20.3

27.9

11.8

20.3

8.65.56.6

15.5

23.6

7.4

28.2

14.1

4.6

05

1015202530

0 to 8 years Some secondary High SchoolDiploma

Some post-secondary

Post-secondarycertificate of

diploma

Bachelor’s degree

Graduatedegree

Figure 17: Percentage Distribution of Non-Working Singles by Education

Men Women

10,127,355

1,104,930 633,765 544,985 221,175 19,580 -

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

CMA CA STRONG MODERATE WEAK NO INFLUENCE

Figure 18: Distribution of Urban & Rural Population in Ontario in 2011

14

relatively remote areas that have weak or no link to urban centres are of Aboriginal origin residing

on relatively remote reserves.

Table 4 shows the unemployment rate by age among various population groups in 2011.

Table 4: Unemployment Rate (%) by Age Group and Ethnicity

Age Group Total Francophones Aboriginals Immigrants Visible

Minorities

15 years & over 8.3 6.2 13.9 8.6 10.5

15 to 64 years 8.4 6.1 14 8.6 10.6

15 to 24 years 20.2 15.9 27.1 21.9 24.1

25 to 34 years 8.0 5.6 14.7 10 9.9

35 to 44 years 5.9 4.1 9.5 7.6 8.1

45 to 54 years 5.4 4.4 8.9 6.6 7.5

55 to 64 years 5.9 5.4 9.4 6.9 8.0

65 years & over 6.1 7.3 10.7 6.9 8.9

The unemployment rate in Ontario is highest among the youth aged 15 to 24 (20.2%) followed by

those aged 25 to 34 (8.0%). Irrespective of the age group, the unemployment rate is highest among

the Aboriginals followed by visible minorities and immigrants. The Francophone population has

the lowest unemployment rate among all age groups except for seniors.

Figure 19 shows the unemployment rate among different segments of the population by geography

in 2011. The average unemployment rate in Ontario equaled 8.3 percent and rose to 16.4 percent

in remote rural areas with no link to urban centres. The unemployment rate generally rises as the

degree of rurality increases. The only exception related to rural areas is with a strong link to urban

centres. This is likely due to the relocation of employed ex-urbanites to the countryside.

8.3 8.3 8.8 6.7

8.2 8.4

16.4

6.2 5.9 7.4 5.4

7.0 7.8

6.9

13.9 13.2 13.7

11.4

14.3

17.1

20.8

8.6 8.7 6.8 5.9 6.2 6.2

-

10.5 10.5 11.4

6.8 8.2 7.8

-

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Total CMA CA Strong Link Moderate Link Weak link No Link

Figure 19: Unemployment Rate by Geography and Ethnicity (%)

Total Francophones Aboriginals Immigrants Visible Minorities

15

Impact of Educational Attainment

Table 5 shows the unemployment rate by highest level of educational attainment for different

population groups in 2011. The unemployment rate declines as the level of education rises. Also,

the level of educational attainment declines as one moves from urban to rural areas. Persons living

in CMAs have the highest level of educational attainment. Majority of those living in rural areas

with a weak or no link to urban centres have less than a high school education. Obviously, the

level of educational attainment influences the likelihood of employment and unemployment.

Table 5: The Unemployment Rate by Highest Level of Educational Attainment

Level of Education Total Francophones Aboriginals Immigrants Visible

Minorities

No certificate, diploma or degree 14.3 10.9 24.4 11.8 16.3

High school diploma or equivalency

certificate 10.9 7.9 15.6 11.0 14.7

Apprenticeship or trades certificate

or diploma 7.2 6.5 11.7 7.5 9.4

College, CEGEP or other non-

university certificate or diploma 6.3 5.0 9.6 7.3 8.7

Total University certificate, diploma

or degree at bachelor level or above 5.7 3.7 6.3 7.3 8.1

Again, for a given level of educational attainment, the unemployment rate is highest for the

Aboriginal workers followed by visible minorities and immigrants. Statistics Canada reports that

newcomers face barriers that may impede the recognition of their credentials and work experience,

with consequences for their labour market performance and broader integration within Canadian

society.2 They state that potential factors include the content of foreign education being deemed

less relevant to the needs of the Canadian labour market than the country where the education was

completed, linguistic ability in English or French, and the entry procedures in some trades and

professions. Unfamiliarity with foreign degrees among employers may also play a role.3 As a

result, Statistics Canada reports that the newcomers experience a higher rate of unemployment,

lower employment rate and lower earnings. They report that education-to-job mismatch is

particularly prevalent among recent immigrants with university education.4 Figure 20 shows the

unemployment rate among those with a post-secondary credentials from Canada and elsewhere. It

supports Statistics Canada’s statement that individuals with foreign obtained credentials face

higher unemployment rate than others. They also face a significantly lower employment rate

(64.0%) compared to those with domestically obtained post-secondary qualifications (73.2%).

2 Statistics Canada, Rene Houle and Lahouaria Yssaad, “Recognition of newcomers’ foreign credentials and work experience”, September 2010. 3 Mata, Fernando. 1999. The Non-Accreditation of Immigrant Professionals in Canada: Societal Dimensions of the Problem. Ottawa. Metropolis. 4 Zietsma, Danielle. 2010. “Immigrants working in regulated occupations.” Perspectives on Labour and Income. Vol. 11, no. 2. February. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 75-001-X. (accessed August 10, 2010).

http://www.canada.metropolis.net/events/conversation/MATAPAPER.html


http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2010102/article/11121-eng.htm

16

Influence of Family Structure

Does family structure influence labour market outcome? Do lone-parent families have a greater

likelihood of unemployment? Figure 21 suggests that irrespective of ethnicity, lone-parent families

have a higher unemployment rate. Figure 21 also shows that the unemployment rate among couple

and lone-parent families is much higher in remote rural areas with no link to urban centres. Data

also shows that lone-parent families have lower participation and employment rates.

5.9 7.0

8.2 7.5 7.7

8.6

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Provincial Average Immigrants Visible Minorities

Figure 20: Unemployment Rate by Location of Post-Secondary Credentials (%)

Canada Other Countries

7.65.6

11.8

8.110

13.2

10.3

22

11.8

14.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Total Francophones Aboriginals Immigrants Visible Minorities

Figure 21: Unemployment Rate by Family Structure (%)

7.6 7.6 7.8 6.2 7.3 7.7

15.5 13.2 13.1 12.1

10.7

14.1 13.3

20.4

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Total CMA CA Strong Link Moderate Link Weak Link No Link

Unemployment Rate by Family Structure (%)

Couple Families Lone-Parent Families

17

Impact of Activity Limitation

The report also examines the effect of disability on labour market outcome. Overall, about 20.0

percent of individuals in Ontario reported having difficulty with daily activity and/or having

activity limitations in 2011. Activity limitation rises with age. Only 6.1 percent of individuals aged

15 to 24 reported having activity limitations compared to 35.9 percent of individuals aged 65 and

over. About 57.8 percent of individuals who reported having activity limitations are between the

ages of 15 and 64. About 32.3 percent of them are in their prime working-age and 35.9 percent are

65 years of age and over. Statistics Canada reports that “the most commonly reported disabilities

among Canadians were mental/psychological (3.9%); dexterity (3.5%); hearing (3.2%); seeing

(2.7%); followed by memory and learning disabilities (2.3%) each. Less than 1 percent of

Canadian adults reported a developmental disability.”5

Table 6 shows the unemployment rate among individuals who reported having activity limitation.

Persons without disability are included as a benchmark. On average, the unemployment rate among

persons aged 15 and over who reported having difficulty with daily activity and/or activity

limitations is highest among the Aboriginal population followed by visible minorities and

immigrants. Data shows that persons with disabilities have a significantly lower participation rate

(40.3%) compared to those without a disability (73.3%). Also, individuals with a disability have a

significantly lower employment rate (36.1%) compared to those without a disability (67.5%).

Table 6: The Unemployment Rate by Disability and Age Group

Age Group No

Difficulty Total Francophones Aboriginals Immigrants

Visible

Minorities

15 years & over 7.9 10.4 8.5 16.1 10.6 12.4

15 to 64 8.0 10.7 8.3 16.1 10.8 12.4

15 to 24 19.7 25.9 21.1 31.7 23.2 26.7

25 to 34 7.6 12.6 9.7 22.8 12.7 12.4

35 to 44 5.4 9.8 7.8 15.2 10.9 11.3

45 to 54 4.8 8.4 6.5 11.0 9.1 9.7

55 to 64 5.1 8.4 7.5 12.4 9.7 10.8

65 years & over 5.2 8.0 10.2 15.3 9.1 12.1

Low-Income Persons Receiving Government Assistance

Figure 22 shows the percentage distribution of transfer payment recipients between the ages of 25

and 64 who were not employed, were members of low-income families or persons and received

more than $1000 in transfer payments in 2010. Note the sum of the percentages in Figure 22 is

greater than 100 percent since there is an overlap between different categories. About 70.3 percent

of low income men who receive government assistance are in their prime working-age (25-54)

5 Statistics Canada, Canadian Survey on Disability 2012, “Disability in Canada: Initial findings from the Canadian Survey on Disability”, Publication No. 89-654-X

18

group. Similarly, 73.5 percent of women in the sample are in their prime working-age group. The

rest or 29.7 and 26.5 percent of men and women respectively are between the ages of 55 and 64.

About 53.9 percent of men and 57.0 percent of women have up to a high school diploma. About

12.3 percent of men and 16.2 percent of women have a 1 to 3 year college diploma. The incidence

of poverty is much higher among those with a 1 to 3 year college diploma than those with a 3

months to 1 year college diploma. About 18.5 percent of men and 12.3 percent of women with a

bachelor degree or higher are also among the low income transfer payment recipients. Overall,

about 46.1 percent of low income men and 43.0 percent of low income women receiving

government assistance have a post-secondary diploma or degree. From this group, about 34.7

percent of men and 24.6 percent of women have their post-secondary credentials from outside

Canada.

About 36.2 percent of low income men and 36.9 percent of women are never married singles. The

incidence of poverty is lower among separated, divorced and widowed men compared to women.

Also, the data shows that about 4.5 percent of low income men are lone-parents compared to 38.2

percent of low income women.

Table 7 shows the year or period in which the non-working government assistance recipients last

worked for pay or in self-employment, even if only for a few days.

Table 7: When Last Worked

When Last Worked Men Women

Last worked before 2010 59.8 62.3

Last worked in 2010 12.0 10.4


Never worked 16.8 19.1

About 16.8 percent of low income men and 19.1 percent of low-income women have never

worked. On the other hand, 59.8 percent of men and 62.3 percent of women worked before 2010.

The rest worked in 2010 and 2011. Examination of the data shows that about 36.7 percent of those

who never worked do not have a high school diploma while 28.4 percent of them have a high

4.0

39.2

5.3

33.7

47.1

- 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

Francophone Immigrants Aboriginal Visible Minority Persons notbelonging to the

other four groups?

Figure 22: Percentage Distribution of Population 25-64 Receiving Government Assistance

19

school diploma as their highest level of educational achievement. They are approximately evenly

distributed among various age groups. The report also examines various socio-economic

characteristics of those who never worked. Part VIII of the report provides a summary and some

policy implications.

20

INTRODUCTION

The objective of the present study is to provide baseline information about the labour market

characteristics and the changing profile of unemployed, underemployed, marginally attached to

the workforce and non-working Ontarians. The study comprises rural and urban Ontario and

covers the period from 1976 to 2016 inclusive. Any policy aimed at increasing employment

opportunities for the unemployed, underemployed and non-working Ontarians including those on

social assistance and non-participants (discouraged workers), must be based on detailed

information on who they are, what their labour market characteristics are and where they reside.

Before adopting any workforce policy aimed at increasing employment or employment

opportunities, we must first understand various factors influencing the current conditions using

reliable data. Are there differences in labour market performance of Francophones, Aboriginals,

immigrants and visible minority populations? What role does geography play in the process? Does

education affect labour market performance? Does a university degree guarantee employment?

Does age or experience affect the likelihood of employability? Do post-secondary credentials

obtained from Canada and those obtained from abroad influence job market outcome? What role

does family structure play in the process? Is the likelihood of unemployment and poverty higher

among lone-parent families? What is the impact of disability on labour force performance and the

likelihood of employment or unemployment? These are some of the questions this study tries to

investigate based on detailed data from Statistics Canada.


decades. The provincial economy has undergone significant change during the past four decades.

One of the important changes has been a dramatic decline of manufacturing output and

employment. The changing structure of Ontario’s economy has also been reflected in the changing

composition of its labour market. The share of employment in the manufacturing sector declined

from 23.2 percent in 1976 to 10.8 percent in 2016. Similarly, the share of employment in the goods-

producing sectors declined from 35.5 percent in 1976 to 20.2 percent in 2016. On the other hand,

the share of the service producing industries rose from 64.5 percent in 1976 to 79.8 percent in

2016. The composition of the employed labour force has also changed. During 1976-2016, the

share of full-time employment declined from 86.5 to 80.8 percent while the share of part-time

employment rose from 13.5 to 19.2 percent. In fact, part-time employment has been the fastest

growing segment of the employed labour force since 1976. Recent years have witnessed a trend

towards part-time employment being the main driver of job creation in Canada. Another significant

recent trend has been rising labour market participation of seniors. Statistics Canada reports that

over 300,000 Canadians aged 65 and over were employed in the 2001 Census reference week,

accounting for 1 in 12 persons in that age group. The trend towards senior employment accelerated

after the 2008 economic downturn.

What are the impacts of the changing structure of the provincial economy on the level of

employment and unemployment of the working-age population who have different educational

level and background, ethnic background, experience, family structure or for those who live in

rural versus urban centres? The present study provides the necessary background information that

21

can form the basis for formulating policies aimed at reducing unemployment and

underemployment among the working-age population in the province.

The report is organized into eight parts.

Part I discusses Ontario’s changing labour market and declining relative significance of full-time

employment. This part provides information on part-time and full-time employment trends in

Ontario during the past four decades. It shows that part-time employment has been the fastest

growing segment of employment during 1976-2016. Part I also examines employment growth by

family structure. It shows that the fastest growing segment of part-time employment relates to

single, never married men and women. Not all part-time workers prefer leisure to work. Many

would like and more importantly need more hours to meet their financial obligations but cannot

find full-time employment. These are referred to as the underemployed. Part I also examines

various socio-economic characteristics of the underemployed and those who are marginally

attached to the workforce.

Part II of the report examines trends in various labour market indicators namely participation,

employment and unemployment rates among men, women and seniors during the past four

decades. It discusses the participation and employment gaps between men and women in Ontario.

The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on both women and men, especially those aged 15 to 24,

are discussed. Part II argues that the official unemployment rate underestimates the actual number

of the unemployed, which includes underemployed, overqualified, discouraged and marginally

attached workers. It provides unemployment estimates that include the other segments of the

unemployed population. In general, the length of time spent unemployed tells us how difficult it

is for out of work individuals to reenter the world of employment. High share of unemployed

workers who have been looking for employment for more than 15 weeks is generally perceived to

signal a relatively difficult labor market. Part II provides information on the duration of

unemployment for workers in different age groups. Part II also examines socio-economic

characteristics of the unemployed, underemployed and marginally attached individuals as well as

those who are not participating in the workforce. These characteristics include their age, education,

marital status and the number of employed persons in the economic family. Part II also examines

whether the unemployed, underemployed and marginally attached workers are the only employed

individuals in their economic family or do they have financial support from other members.

Finally, Part II provides information on socio-economic characteristics of non-working Ontarians.

Part III of the study examines socio-economic profiles of the unemployed individuals and those

on social assistance in Ontario and pays special attention to rural-urban distinction. It examines

labour force participation, employment and unemployment rates among the total population

residing in rural and urban areas. This part also examines how family structure influences labour

market outcome as well as labour market performance of persons with disabilities. Various socio-

economic characteristics of transfer payment recipients between the ages of 25 and 64 who are not

employed, are members of a low-income family or are persons receiving more than $1000 in

transfer payments are also examined in this part of the study.

22

Part IV examines various labour market indicators of Ontario’s Francophone population. It

examines whether the average labour force participation, employment and unemployment rates

vary when individuals move from urban centres to rural areas. It compares their labour force

performance to the provincial average. This part also examines the impact of age, education, family

structure and disability on labour market performance of Francophones. Furthermore it

investigates various socio-economic characteristics of low income Francophones who receive

transfer payments.

Part V examines the geographical dimension of unemployment among the Aboriginal population

in Ontario. This part shows that about 70.2 percent of the Aboriginal population live in urban areas

and the rest live in rural areas with various degrees of rurality. Part V investigates the effect of age,

gender, geography, education, family structure and disability on labour market outcome of

Aboriginal people in Ontario. Part V also examines the socio-economic characteristics of those

receiving transfer payments.

Part VI examines various labour market indicators of the immigrant population in Ontario. It also

examines various socio-economic characteristics of the immigrant population. It shows that the

immigrant population increased by more than 124.0 percent during 2001-2011. The impact of

disability on labour market outcome is also examined in this part. This part investigates the

influence of having foreign credentials on their labour market outcome. Part VI also studies various

socio-economic characteristics of the immigrant population who receive transfer payments and are

between the ages of 25 and 64 and are not employed.

Part VII examines the influence of age, gender, education, family structure, disability and

geography on labour market performance of the visible minorities in Ontario. This part also

investigates the effect of having foreign obtained credentials on labour market outcome of visible

minorities.

Part VIII provides a summary and conclusion.

23

Sources of Data Used in this Study

The data used in this study are based on custom tabulations obtained from Statistics Canada

pertaining to various Censuses of Canada as well as the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS).

In addition to custom tabulations from the 2011 NHS, we have also used data from the following

sources:

1. The 2001 Census Public Use Micro-data File (PUMF).

2. The NHS 2011 Public Use Micro-data File (PUMF).

3. Monthly Labour Force Survey Microdata files, 1976 to 2016.

4. Labour Force Activity Survey Microdata files, annual, 1976-2010

5. Special tabulations from 2011 NHS.

The 2011 Census of Population and the 2011 NHS both provide information on the Canadian

population for various levels of geography including rural and urban regions and for numerous

common topics. The NHS 2011 Public Use Micro-data File (PUMF) contains 847,012 records on

the Canadian population. A number of characteristics are given for each record.

These records are drawn from a sample of the Canadian population, excluding institutional

residents. PUMF database includes 133 variables and 341,253 records on the population living in

the province of Ontario. It provides the best source of information on individual Canadians that

can be used to examine the socio-economic characteristics of the employed, unemployed and non-

working Canadians in Ontario.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) divides the working-age population into three groups: employed,

unemployed and not in the labour force. It provides descriptive and explanatory data on each group

which includes information on demographics, employment and unemployment, hours of work,

income, industries, labour force, occupations, work arrangement, etc. The monthly LFS sample

size has been approximately 56,000 households, resulting in the collection of labour market

information for approximately 100,000 individuals. Statistics Canada changes the sample size

from time to time in order to meet data quality or budget requirements.

The LFS uses a rotating panel sample design so that selected dwellings remain in the LFS sample

for six consecutive months. Each month about 1/6th of the LFS sampled dwellings are in their first

month of the survey, 1/6th are in their second month of the survey, and so on. One feature of the

LFS sample design is that each of the six rotating groups can be used as a representative sample

by itself. Within selected dwellings, basic demographic information is collected for all household

members. Labour force information is collected for all civilian household members who are aged

15 and over. Data used in the present study includes annual LFS information from 1976 to 2010.

For the period 2011 to 2016, we have averaged information from LFS for the months of March

and September of each year, thus incorporating information pertaining to an entire calendar year.

24

Population Groups Studied in this Report

The report provides information on the following five population groups:

1. Total population;

2. Francophone population defined as individuals whose mother tongue is French;

3. Aboriginal population defined by Statistics Canada as persons who reported identifying

with at least one Aboriginal group, that is, North American Indian, Metis or Inuit, and/or

those who reported being a Treaty Indian or a registered Indian, as defined by the Indian

Act of Canada, and/or those who reported they were members of an Indian band or First

Nation;

4. Immigrant population defined as persons who are, or have ever been, landed immigrants

in Canada.

5. Visible Minority Population, according to Statistics Canada, refers to persons, other than

Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour. The visible

minority population consists mainly of the following groups: Chinese, South Asian, Black,

Arab, West Asian, Filipino, Southeast Asian, Latin American, Japanese and Korean.6

6 http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/concepts/definitions/minority01

25

PART I: ONTARIO’S CHANGING LABOUR MARKET


decades. Ontario enjoyed a privileged economic position during the post war years. However, the

province’s economy has undergone significant restructuring since the 1980s. This restructuring

was influenced by the process of globalization and its tighter integration into the North American

economy by the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The biggest change the provincial economy has experienced relates to the relative decline of its

manufacturing output and employment. In fact, Ontario’s economy suffered its worst downturn

since the Great Depression in the early 1990s. Total employment in Ontario declined by about

261,000 between 1989 and 1993.7 About 223,600 of the lost jobs were in the manufacturing sector.

Figure 1.1 shows the index of employment growth in various sectors of the economy since 1976.

The timing of this significant change in Ontario's economic environment coincided with the

introduction of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 1989 and its successor, the North

American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. That period also saw a significant

contractionary monetary policy by the Bank of Canada which resulted in substantial rise in both

interest rates and the Canadian dollar during the late 1980s. Also, there was a major downturn in

the U.S. business cycle after Canada’s recession had started.

As Figure 1.1 shows, the provincial economy has slowly emerged from its early 1990 downturn

and total employment in the manufacturing sector finally surpassed its pre–recession peak of about

1,052.4 thousands in 2000, but has declined to a new historical low of about 784.5 thousands in

2016. Figure 1.1 shows that total manufacturing employment declined by about 13.8 percent

during 1976-2016.

7 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Annual Averages, CANSIM 282…

105.7

86.2

229.1

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 1.1: Index of Employment Growth

Goods-producing sector Manufacturing Services-producing sector

26

Ontario has also faced competitive challenges in some traditional labour- or energy-intensive

industries. The emergence of shale gas production has helped to contain energy costs. Some of

these jurisdictions are now seeing a resurgence in manufacturing activity.8

In recent years, Ontario exporters have also faced significant challenges (especially from China)

in their most important market, the United States. In fact, the level of Ontario exports to the United

States declined from $153 billion in 2003 to $129 billion in 2013.9 During the same period,

Ontario’s share of U.S. merchandise imports fell from 8.7 percent to 5.5 percent.10 On the other

hand, Ontario’s share of exports to other jurisdictions such as the European Union has been on the

rise.

The changing structure of Ontario’s economy has also been reflected in the changing composition

of its labour market (Figure 1.2). The share of employment in the manufacturing sector declined

from 23.2 percent in 1976 to 10.8 percent in 2016. The majority of the manufacturing employment

has been full-time and full-year jobs.

Similarly, the share of employment in the goods-producing sectors, which includes agriculture,

construction, utilities and manufacturing, declined from 35.5 percent in 1976 to 20.2 percent in

2016. On the other hand, the share of the service producing industries rose from 64.5 percent in

1976 to 79.8 percent in 2016. The composition of the employed labour force has also changed

(Figure 1.3).

8 Ministry of Finance, “Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy”, 2014. The high cost of energy has been a

major contributing factor to the decline of forestry and mining in Ontario. See B. Moazzami, “An Economic Impact

Analysis of the Northwestern Ontario Forest Sector”, 2006. Prepared for Northwestern Ontario Forest Council. 9 Ministry of Finance, “Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy”, 2014. 10 Ibid.

23.2 10.8

35.5

20.2

64.5

79.8

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 1.2: Percentage Share of Employment by Sector

share of Manufacturing Goods-producing sector

Service-producing sector

27

During 1976-2016, the share of full-time (FT) employment declined from 86.5 to 80.8 percent

while the share of part-time employment rose from 13.5 to 19.2 percent. In fact, part-time

employment has been the fastest growing segment of the employed labour force since 1976 (Figure

1.4).

Figure 1.4 shows that full-time employment in the goods-producing sector has been relatively flat

during the past four decades. On the other hand, part-time employment in the service industry has

86.5 80.8

13.5 19.2

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 1.3: Percentage Share of Full-Time & Part-Time Employment

Share of FT Share of PT

103.7

217.7

279.6

146.7

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016

Figure 1.4: Index of Full-Time & Part-Time Employment Growth

Goods-producing (FT) Services-producing (FT)

Services-producing (PT) Goods-producing(PT)

28

seen a growth of about 280 percent during the same period. Full-time employment in the service-

producing sectors has also increased by about 218 percent. In absolute terms, full-time

employment among men aged 15 to 64 years rose from 2,113 thousands in 1976 to 3,016 thousands

in 2016, an annual growth rate of about 1.07 percent during the past four decades (Figure 1.5). As

a reference, the rate of growth of the working-age male population between the ages of 15 and 64

in Ontario equaled 1.7 percent per year during the past four decades.

During the same period, full-time employment among women aged 15 to 64 rose by about 3.1

percent from 1,077 thousands to 2,410 thousands. The rate of growth of the female population

equaled 1.8 percent per year during the past four decades. Employment among women has been

rising steadily since 1976. Statistics Canada reports that “in 2009, 58.3% of women, representing

8.1 million women, were employed. This is more than double the number of women employed in

1976.”11

Figure 1.6 shows employment trends among seniors in Ontario. Statistics Canada reports that many

seniors are content to continue working indefinitely or until forced into retirement by ill health or

age-related employment policies.12 Statistics Canada reports that over 300,000 Canadians aged 65

and over were employed in the 2001 Census reference week, accounting for 1 in 12 persons in that

age group.13 Figure 1.6 shows that trends towards senior employment accelerated after the 2008

economic downturn. The downturn might have necessitated seniors to stay much longer or to

return to the labour force for economic reasons including lack of adequate pension or wealth, lack

of health issues and job satisfaction. In fact, transition to retirement can be very complex. There

11 Vincent Ferrao, “Women in Canada, A Gender-based Statistical Report”, Statistics Canada, 89-503-X, December 2010. 12 Doreen Duchene, “More Seniors at Work”, Statistics Canada, Perspectives, February 2004, Cat. No. 75-001-XIE. 13 Ibid.

2,113

3,016

1,077 2,410

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Figure 1.5: Full-Time Employment 15-64 Years Old(1000s)

Male FT.15-64 Female FT.15-64

29

are many who frequently drop in and out of retirement before making a final exit from the labour

market.

Figure 1.6 shows that the seniors involvement in the labour market was relatively subdued during

the 1980s and 1990s. From 2000 to 2016, senior employment increased by 15.3 percent per year

for men and 22.6 percent per year for senior women.

Recent years has witnessed a trend towards part-time employment being the main driver of job

creation in Canada. In the words of Madani, economists at Capital Economics, Canada is becoming

a nation of part-time workers.14 Figure 1.7 shows that part-time employment among men aged 15

to 64 rose by 3.22 percent per year during the past four decades. This is much greater than the 1.07

percent growth of full-time employment among men during the same period. Similarly, part-time

employment among women aged 15 to 64 rose by 4.89 percent per year during 1976-2016. Again,

this rate of growth is much greater than the growth rate of full-time employment among women

15 to 64 during the past four decades.

14 Jamie Sturgeon, “Experts fret Canada becoming a nation of part-time workers”, Global News, August 15, 2014.

36

33

114

11 13

60

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

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76

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12

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14

20

16

Figure 1.6: Full-Time Employment 65+(1000s)

Male FT: 65 + Female FT:65 +

30

The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) in the United States reports that between 1977 and 2007,

employment of workers 65 and over in the United States rose 101 percent compared to 59 percent

for total employment. They report that employed men 65 and over increased by 75 percent

compared to about 147 percent for senior women. BLS also reports that while the number of people

age 75 and over is relatively small (0.8% of the employed in 2007), this group had the most

dramatic gain, rising by 172 percent between 1977 and 2007.15 Figure 1.8 shows that part-time

employment of seniors was relatively stable in the 1980s and 1990s, but the growth rate accelerated

after 2000.

15 United States Department of Labour, Bureau of Labour Statistics, “Older Workers”, July 2008.

134

396 349

799

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

Figure 1.7: Part-Time Employment 15-64 Years(1000s)

Male PT: 15-64 Female PT: 15-64

14

65

8

72

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Figure 1.8: Part-Time Employment 65+(1000s)

Male PT: 65+ Female PT: 65+

31

We note that the increased labour force participation and employment of seniors is not related to

the baby-boom generation because those individuals born between 1946 and 1964 had not yet

reached the age of 65 in 2000.

Employment Growth and Family Structure

There were 1.5 million prime working-age men between the ages of 25 and 54 employed full-time

in 1976. It rose to 2.2 million in 2016. About 85.7 percent of men working full-time were married

or living in a common-law relationship in 1976. Their share declined to about 71.8 percent in 2016.

Single men who were never married accounted for 10.5 percent of those who worked full-time in

1976. Their share rose to 22.2 percent in 2016. Men who were either separated or divorced

accounted for 3.2 percent of the full-time prime working age workers in 1976. This share increased

to 5.8 percent in 2016.

Figure 1.9 shows the index of full-time employment growth by family structure among men aged

25 to 54 years. Employment among single men experienced the highest rate of growth during the

past four decades. On the other hand, employment growth among married men was relatively

small (0.65% per year) during the past four decades.

Figure 1.10 shows the index of full-time employment growth among the prime working-age

women in Ontario. About 75.2 percent of them were married or living in a common-law

relationship in 1976. This share declined to 70.4 percent in 2016. The share of single, never married

women rose from 14.1 percent in 1976 to 20.2 percent in 2016. The share of women who were

separated or divorced rose from 7.8 percent in 1976 to 8.5 percent in 2016. Figure 1.10 shows that

employment among single women experienced the highest growth during the past four decades.

315

126

100

277

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

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98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 1.9: Index of Full-Time Employment Growth by Family Structure (Men 25-54)

Single Married Separated/Divorced

32

Figure 1.11 shows the index of part-time employment growth among prime working-age men by

family structure. About 66.8 percent of prime working-age men who worked part-time were

married or lived in a common-law relationship in 1976. This share declined to 53.6 percent in

2016. About 25.8 percent of the prime working-age men who worked part-time were single in

1976. This share rose to 41.1 percent in 2016. About 5.0 percent of men aged 25 to 54 who worked

part-time were separated or divorced in 2016. Figure 1.11 shows that the fastest growing segment

of part-time employment relates to single, never married men.

389

253 100

295

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

19

76

19

78

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90

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98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 1.10: Index of Full-Time Employment Growth(Women 25-54)


1,216

100

611

366

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 1.11: Index of Part-Time Employment Growth by Family Structure (Men 25-54)


33

Figure 1.12 shows the growth rate of part-time employment among prime working-age women in

Ontario. The majority of about 91.9 percent of the prime working-age women were married in

1976. This share declined to about 74.1 percent in 2016. Only about 2.2 percent of the prime

working-age women with part-time employment were single, never married in 1976. This share

rose to 20.6 percent in 2016. Also, about 4.0 percent of women aged 25 to 54 who worked part-

time were separated or divorced in 1976. This share rose to 9.6 percent in 2016. Figure 1.12 shows

that the fastest growing segment of part-time employment consists of single, never married

women.

Part-time employment accounted for only about 13.5 percent of all jobs in Ontario in 1976. This

share has risen to about 19.2 percent in 2016. Many workers currently in such jobs would prefer

and in many cases need more hours of employment to meet their financial obligations. Workers

who work part-time but actually prefer full-time employment are often referred to as

underemployed. These are individuals who work part-time not because they prefer leisure to

labour, but because they cannot find full-time employment.

Full-time jobs generally pay better and offer more benefits and have more room for advancement

than part-time jobs. However, most of the job growth in recent years has been disproportionately

part-time. As we saw above, the growth rate of part-time employment is highest among single men

and single women who do not have the financial support of another employed family member.

1,867

160 100

480

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

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19

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98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 1.12: Index of Part-Time Employment Growth (Women 25-54)


34

PART II: TRENDS IN LABOUR MARKET INDICATORS IN ONTARIO

This part of the report examines long-term trends in labour market indicators, namely the

participation rate, employment rate and unemployment rate in Ontario during the past four

decades. The participation rate is the share of the working-age population that is working or

looking for work. The employment rate is defined as the ratio of the employed to the working age

population. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed

individuals by all persons currently in the labour force.

Figure 2.1 shows trends in the participation rate among men and women during the past four

decades. The participation rate among men has declined slightly while women’s participation rate

has risen significantly during the past four decades.

According to Statistics Canada, “the labour force participation rate of women rises steadily from

the 1950s to 1990. In the early 1950s, about one-quarter of women aged 25 to 54 participated in

the labour market, that is, they had a job or were looking for one. In contrast, virtually every man

in the same age group was participating in the labour market during this period. However, women

began increasing their presence in the labour market as social norms regarding gender roles

evolved.”16

From 1953 to 1990, the labour force participation rate for women rose steadily. The early 1990

recession marked the beginning of a slowdown in the growth of women’s labour force participation

rate. The participation gap between men 15 to 64 and women has narrowed significantly from 30.2

percent in 1976 to only 7.1 percent in 2016.

16 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Canadian Megatrends, The surge of women in the workforce, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2015009-eng.htm

86.1 79.8

55.9

72.7

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Figure 2.1: Participation Rate (PR) of Persons 15-64 in Ontario (%)

PR Men:15-64 PR Women: 15-64

35

The opposite trend appears when examining the participation rate of seniors 65 years of age and

older. Their participation rates were at a historic low during the 1980s and 1990s. Figure 2.2 shows

that the participation rate among seniors began to rise in the early 2000s and accelerated after the

2008 financial meltdown. Evidence suggests that a larger share of people 65 and older is staying

in or returning to the labour force.

Figure 2.3 shows trends in the employment rate of individuals aged 15 to 64 in Ontario. The

employment rate among men and women rose during the 1970s and 1980s but started to decline

after the early 1990 recession and remained relatively flat ever since. The percentage employment

rate of men aged 15 to 64 has declined from 81.6 percent in 1976 to 74.0 percent in 2016. On the

other hand, the percentage of women employed has risen from a low of 51.6 percent in 1976 to

68.0 percent in 2016. As a result, the employment gap between men and women has declined from

30.0 percent in 1976 to 6.0 percent in 2016.

17.3 18.5

4.8 11.5

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Figre 2.2: Participation Rate of Persons 65+ in Ontario (%)

PR Men: 65+ PR Women: 65+

81.6 74.0

51.6

68.0

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

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98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 2.3: Employment Rate 15-64 Years of Age (%)

Men Women

36

Statistics Canada reports that the employment rate of women with children has generally been

increasing over the past three decades. In 2009, 72.9% of women with children under 16 living at

home were part of the employed workforce. Although the percentage has declined compared with

2008 and 2007, it is still up from 39.1% in 1976.17

The 2008 financial crisis affected both women and men of all age groups. However, those aged 15

to 24 were particularly hard hit. The employment rate for women in that age group fell from 60.3%

in 2008 to 57.1% in 2009. Even with this decline, they fared better than young men, whose

employment rate dropped from 58.9% to 53.6% over the same period.18

Figure 2.4 shows trends in the employment rate of seniors in Ontario during the past four decades.

As was the case with the participation rate, the percentage of seniors working was very low during

the 1980s and 1990s but started to rise after 2000. Statistics Canada reports that the number of

employed seniors has increased from 300,000 to 503,100 between 2001 and 2008.19 More than

half (58%) of these are employed full-time and 42 percent are employed part-time.20

The same process has happened elsewhere. For example, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reports

that since the mid-1990s there has been a dramatic shift in the part-time versus full-time status of

the older workforce. The ratio of part-time to full-time employment among older workers was

relatively steady from 1977 through 1990. Between 1990 and 1995, part-time work among older

17 Vincent Ferrao, “Women in Canada: A Gender-based Statistical Report”, Statistics Canada , Cat. No. 89-503-X, 2010. 18 Ibid. 19 Duchesne, D. (2004). More seniors at work. Perspectives on Labour and Income, 16(1), 55-67. 20 MacEwen, A. (2012). Working after age 65: What is at stake? Ottawa, Ontario, Canada: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, 2012.

16.8

17.9

4.8 11.1

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

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90

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20

12

20

14

20

16

Figure 2.4: Employment Rate 65+

Men Women

37

workers began trending upward with a corresponding decline in full-time employment. But after

1995, that trend began a marked reversal with full-time employment rising sharply. Between 1995

and 2007, the number of older workers on full-time work schedules nearly doubled while the

number working part-time rose just 19 percent. As a result, full-timers now account for a majority

among older workers: 56 percent in 2007, up from 44 percent in 1995.21

Figure 2.5 shows the official unemployment rate for individuals aged 15 to 64 and seniors in

Ontario during the past four decades. There is obvious cyclical behavior in the unemployment rate

reflecting the cyclical behavior of the provincial economy. In general, the unemployment rate rises

during a recessionary period and declines during recovery. Workers are classified as being either

in or out of the labour force. Those who are in the labour force are either employed or unemployed.

Those who are considered employed also include the underemployed who are people who work

part-time but want a full-time job and those who are overqualified for the jobs they have based on

their education and experience. Those who are classified as unemployed are people who do not

have a job but have been looking for employment during the week before the survey was taken.

Those classified as not being in the labour force are not working and are not looking for

employment. Thus, they are not employed and also not unemployed. However, there are people in

the latter category who are not looking for employment because they have not been able to find

any and have given up. They are not looking for employment because of a belief that there are no

jobs available to him or her. They are referred to as discouraged workers. Such discouragement

usually happens during a recessionary period as workers lose their jobs and then have difficulty

finding another one. They generally would not start looking for employment until they see signs

of improvement in the labour market.

There is another group of workers who are not included in the labour force and thus are not

considered employed or unemployed. Those are the marginally attached workers. Marginally

attached worker is anyone who is currently not in the labor force, wants full-time work, and has

actively looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they

held one within the past 12 months). A marginally attached worker is not considered to be either

employed or unemployed, so they are not included in the official unemployment number.

It appears that the official unemployment rate might seriously underestimate the actual number of

the unemployed which includes underemployed, overqualified, discouraged and marginally

attached workers. To correct this potential underestimation, the BLS calculates six measures of

unemployment to provide a better picture of the health of the labour market. One of the measures

adds the discouraged workers to the pool of unemployed. Another measure includes the

unemployed plus discouraged and all persons marginally attached to the labour force. Another

measure includes all unemployed, all persons marginally attached to the labour force plus the

underemployed workers.

21 United States Department of Labour, Bureau of Labour Statistics, “Older Workers”, July 2008. https://stats.bls.gov/spotlight/2008/older_workers/

https://stats.bls.gov/spotlight/2008/older_workers/

38

The Labour Force Survey conducted by Statistics Canada asks respondents for the reason they

work part-time. There are various options such as illness, personal issues, tend own child, going

to school and personal preference. Two of the options include those who cannot find full-time

employment and have been actively looking for work or have given up looking. We consider those

who selected the latter two options to classify as underemployed workers. In effect,

underemployment can be thought of as the unmet need for paid employment. There is an unmet

need for more hours of work, even though the individuals are no longer classified as unemployed.

Figure 2.6 shows the percentage of underemployed workers in Ontario as a share of the labour

force. Figure 2.6 shows that underemployment among women is much greater than that among

men. It also shows that the underemployment rate rose significantly after the 2008 financial crisis.

However, the rate has not declined significantly during the period under study. Figure 2.6 also

shows the underemployment rate by age group. Women, whether in their prime working-age or

not, have the highest rate of underemployment. Prime working-age men have the lowest rate of

5.3

7.3 7.7

6.3

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

19

76

19

78

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16

Figure 2.5: Unemployment Rate 15-64 Years Old

Men Women

2.1

3.0

4.3

3.5

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployment Rate 65+

Men UR: 65+ Women UR: 65+

39

underemployment. In practice, the underemployment for young workers can point to the serious

barriers many of them face in entering the labour market.

Adding the estimated underemployment rate to the official unemployment rate (Figure 2.7) shows

that the effective unemployment rate ranged from 11.4 and 16.3 percent for men and women in

1997 to 10.4 and 12.4 percent in 2016 respectively.

We note that Statistics Canada also produces supplementary unemployment rates labelled R5 to

R8 in order to measure the extent of underemployment. However, the Statistics Canada measures

count the volume of underemployment, meaning the total hours of underemployment divided by

average weekly full-time hours. The numbers in Figure 2.6 measure the actual number of people

affected by the phenomenon as a share of the labour force.22 A report by the Canadian Labour

Congress compares Statistics Canada’s estimates of underemployment with the actual number of

22 For a discussion of this point see Canadian Labour Congress, “Underemployment is Canada’s Real Labour Market Challenge, A Profile of Canada’s Labour Market”, March 2014.

3.3

2.7 3.2

7.5

5.8

6.1

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Figure 2.6: Underemployment Rate 15+ (%)

Men Women

2.8 2.8

7.3 5.8 4.0

3.2

7.9

6.1

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Underemployment by Age Group (%)

Men 25-54 Women 25-54 Men 15+ Women 15+

40

underemployed persons and concludes that, “The portion of underemployment counted by

Statistics Canada has been consistently around half the amount of the total persons that are

underemployed part-timers since 1997. In 2013, the total number of employed persons seeking

more hours was over 910,000, and the amount counted by Statistics Canada was only 445,000.

That considerably alters the level of underemployment reported by Statistics Canada. Even more

worrying, the amount of underemployment that is not captured by Statistics Canada’s measure

varies greatly by group. For example, underemployment among women is significantly

underestimated, because women are far more likely to be part-time workers who want more

hours.”23

One of the survey questions in the Labour Force Survey identifies persons who are not currently

employed but have worked within the last year. We classify those who have responded positively

to that question as being marginally attached to the workforce. Another survey question identifies

the reason why individuals did not look for work in the reference week. Those who did not look

for work because of a belief that there was no job available were classified as discouraged workers.

Figure 2.8 shows the percentage of the marginally attached and discouraged workers as a share of

the labour force in Ontario.

23 Ibid.

11.4 10.4

16.3

12.4

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Figure 2.7: Unemployment Rate + Underemployment Rate (%)

Men Women

41

Adding the percentages in Figures 2.7 and 2.8 suggests that the official unemployment rate

seriously underestimates the effective unemployment rate faced by individuals in the workforce.

In effect, the presence of a large number of discouraged and marginally attached workers would

cause the labour force participation rate to fall resulting in the unemployment rate to be lower than

it would otherwise be.

Duration of Unemployment

Duration of unemployment refers to the duration of the period during which an individual is

recorded as unemployed but was seeking or available for work. In general, the length of time spent

unemployed tells us how difficult it is for out of work individuals to reenter the world of

employment. High share of unemployed workers who have been looking for employment for more

than 15 weeks is generally perceived to signal a relatively difficult labor market. Figure 2.9 shows

the average duration of unemployment among youth aged 15 to 24.

Figure 2.9 shows that the unemployment duration rose during the early 1980 recession. Also, it

almost doubled during the early 1990 recession and remained relatively low until the 2008

financial crisis when it reached about 15.0 percent. The average duration of unemployment has

remained about 11 weeks for youth during the past four decades.

3.8

7.6

4.3

3.6 3.2

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Figure 2.8: Discouraged + Marginally Attached Workers (%)

Men 15+ Women 15+

19.8

11.3 11.0

9.1 -

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

19

76

19

78

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80

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Figure 2.9: Average Weeks Unemployed 15-24(%)

men 15-24 Women 15-24

42

Figure 2.10 shows the average duration of unemployment for prime working-age men and women

in Ontario. In general, during most business cycles, there is a strong correlation between the

unemployment rate and the average length of a period of unemployment. Figure 2.10 shows that

the unemployment durations increased steadily during the early 1980s, 1990s and also after the

2008 crisis.

The unemployment duration has trended upward suggesting that the duration of unemployment

for the prime working-age population has risen from 14.0 weeks in 1976 to about 20 weeks in

2016. In other words, it has become much more difficult for prime working–age persons to find

employment. There does not appear to be a significant gap between the duration of unemployment

between men and women.

Unemployment duration is an important factor determining the distributional consequences of

recessions. At one extreme, if unemployment spells are very brief, workers can use a small stock

of savings they have accumulated to smooth out their consumption across the periods of

unemployment. At the other extreme, if unemployment spells are long in duration, then no stock

of savings will be large enough to allow for consumption smoothing. In general, unemployment

duration is a good predictor of whether a worker will find a job. Studies show that the probability

of unemployed workers with a given unemployment duration finding a job in the following period

is a decreasing function of duration.24

The unemployment duration for men aged 55 to 64 has also risen from an average of about 18

weeks in 1976 to about 28 weeks in 2016. For women aged 55 to 64, the average duration of

unemployment appears to have stayed around 18 weeks during the past four decades except for

the periods of high unemployment rates during the recessionary periods. In general, the average

duration of unemployment has been positively correlated with age. It was lowest for the youth and

highest for those 65 years of age and over.

24 K. G. Abraham and Robert Shimer, “Changes in Unemployment Duration and Labour Force Attachment”, August 29, 2001.

43

32.6

22.6 14.0

18.4

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Figure 2.10: Average Weeks Unemployed: 25-54(%)

Men 25-54 Women 25-54

27.7 18.0

40.0

17.8

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Average Weeks Unemployed 55-64 (%)

Men: 55-64 Women 55-64

19.6

48.2

35.6

28.8

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Average Weeks Unemployed 65+ (%)

Men 65+ Women 65+

44

Trends in Other Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Unemployed, Underemployed and

Marginal Workers in Ontario

Using Labour Force Survey microdata files, this part of the report examines socio-economic

characteristics of the unemployed, underemployed and marginal workers in Ontario. The

characteristics examined are the highest level of educational achievement as a proxy for human

capital, marital status, and the number of employed persons in the economic family. Statistics

Canada defines economic family as a group of two or more persons who live in the same dwelling.

Before, we discuss various socio-economic characteristics of different groups, it is useful to

examine their age distribution in 2016. This is given in Table 2.1 and Figure 2.11.

Table 2.1: Age Distribution of Unemployed, Underemployed and Marginal Workers

Age Class Unemployed (%) Underemployed (%) Marginal + Discouraged (%)


15-19 14.6 14.3 6.3 3.2 13.2 10.0

20-24 17.1 15.4 18.8 15.3 17.8 14.8

25-29 13.0 10.3 12.5 11.5 14.3 13.0

30-34 9.5 10.0 10.1 9.3 10.0 11.5

35-39 5.9 8.8 7.3 9.3 6.4 9.8

40-44 6.7 9.0 9.2 10.8 7.0 8.9

45-49 8.7 7.6 8.9 11.0 8.2 8.2

50-54 8.8 9.6 8.7 10.6 9.4 9.6

55-59 8.1 8.8 6.6 10.6 7.5 8.1

60-64 5.4 4.2 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.2

65-69 1.5 1.6 4.0 1.9 1.2 1.9

70+ 0.6 0.6 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1

Total Percentage 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Total No. 275,167 222,043 124,709 217,812 167,832 113,412

31.7 29.6 25.1

18.6

31.0 24.8

52.8 55.3 56.7 62.6

55.3 61.0

13.5 12.9 11.4 15.8

12.2 12.3

2.1 2.2 6.8

3.0 1.5 2.0

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Unemployed Men UnemployedWomen

UnderemployedMen

UnderemployedWomen

Marginal Men Marginal Women

Figure 2.11: Age Distribution (%)

under 25 25 to 54 55-65 65+

45

The majority of men and women who are either unemployed, underemployed or marginally

attached to the labour force are in the prime working-age group followed by those under 25 years

of age. Individuals aged 55 to 65 comprise from 11 to 16 percentage and those 65 and over

represent about 2.0 percent of the total population in the above categories.

Highest Level of Educational Achievement

Table 2.2 shows trends in highest level of educational attainment of unemployed men in Ontario

during the past four decades. In 1976, about 47.0 percent of the unemployed men did not have a

high school diploma. About 32.0 percent had completed high school as the highest level of

educational achievement. Only 11.3 percent of the unemployed men had a college or university

degree. The above picture of the unemployed as those with a low level of educational attainment

has changed significantly over time. In 2016, about 46.5 percent of the unemployed men have a

college or university degree. Only about 16.4 percent do not have a high school diploma.

Table 2.2: Highest Educational Attainment of Unemployed Men in Ontario

Educational Level 1976 1985 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0 to 8 Years 19.9 14.3 2.5 3.3 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.1

Some secondary 27.0 23.6 21.3 19.0 19.7 20.0 17.8 17.3 14.3

Grade 11 to 13, grad 32.0 37.4 24.0 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.7 28.7 27.0

Some post-secondary 9.8 10.3 10.5 10.8 8.8 10.2 9.7 8.2 10.2

College diploma 5.9 7.7 23.7 25.8 24.9 24.1 25.0 24.8 24.5

University degree 5.4 6.7 18.1 17.2 20.6 19.6 21.6 18.5 22.0

Total Percentage 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

The same picture appears when one examines the highest level of educational attainment of

unemployed women in Ontario during the past four decades (Table 2.3). In 1976, about 36.7

percent of the unemployed women did not have a high school diploma. About 40.1 percent had a

high school diploma and only 15.1 percent had college or university credentials. In 2016, only 14.4

percent of the unemployed women did not have a high school diploma. About 57.6 percent had a

college or university degree.

Table 2.3: Highest Educational Attainment of Unemployed Women in Ontario

Educational Level 1976 1985 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0 to 8 Years 11.8 10.1 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.0

Some secondary 24.9 18.9 16.9 16.2 16.9 16.0 13.9 14.3 12.4

Grade 11 to 13, grad 40.1 43.7 21.0 19.7 21.2 22.4 22.1 21.4 17.6

Some post-secondary 8.1 9.6 9.5 9.5 8.3 9.3 10.7 11.2 10.5

College diploma 8.9 10.5 28.2 30.5 26.8 27.0 26.0 25.9 28.1

Bachelor’s degree 6.2 7.2 21.3 21.6 24.4 23.1 24.8 25.2 29.5

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Table 2.4 shows the highest level of educational attainment of underemployed men in Ontario

during 2010-2016. It shows that in 2010, about 32.5 percent had a college diploma. The share of

46

the underemployed with a college diploma declined to 27.2 percent in 2016. On the other hand,

the share of the underemployed men with a university degree rose from 13.2 percent in 2010 to

20.1 percent in 2016. Similarly, the share of the underemployed with a graduate degree rose from

6.7 percent in 2010 to 11.3 percent in 2016. Overall, about 58.6 percent of those who work part-

time but would like to find a full-time job have a college or university degree.

Table 2.4: Highest Educational Attainment of Underemployed Men in Ontario

Educational Level 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0 to 8 Years 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.6

Some secondary 10.0 9.4 13.9 8.0 7.7 8.0 8.8

Grade 11 to 13, grad 26.0 27.0 21.9 29.9 26.1 23.7 24.9

Some post-secondary 9.4 8.7 8.1 8.6 7.0 8.6 7.3

College diploma 32.5 29.8 30.2 28.6 30.8 28.4 27.2

Bachelor’s degree 13.2 14.3 15.4 14.4 16.5 18.5 20.1

Graduate degree 6.7 8.4 8.2 9.4 10.2 12.2 11.3

Total Percentage 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Total Number 131,405 131,894 128,862 139,823 149,448 128,490 124,709

A similar picture appears when one examines the educational attainment of underemployed

women in Ontario (Table 2.5). The share of underemployed women with a college diploma rose

from 36.8 percent in 2010 to 39.2 percent in 2016. The share of those with an undergraduate

university degree rose from 16.4 percent in 2010 to 17.9 percent in 2016. The percentage of those

with a graduate degree increased from 6.1 percent in 2010 to 8.5 percent in 2016. It is clear that

the educational composition of the underemployed individuals has changed significantly over

time. In recent years, the majority of those who cannot find full-time employment have a post-

secondary education.

Table 2.5: Highest Educational Attainment of Underemployed Women in Ontario

Educational Level 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0 to 8 Years 2.1 1.1 1.7 1.7 0.8 1.5 0.8

Some secondary 7.2 7.2 6.3 7.6 6.1 4.9 6.0

Grade 11 to 13, grad 24.1 23.7 22.0 20.1 22.8 21.1 20.9

Some post-secondary 7.3 7.1 7.8 7.5 8.2 7.0 6.7

College diploma 36.8 36.5 37.7 39.5 36.1 39.4 39.2

Bachelor’s degree 16.4 16.9 17.6 16.7 18.6 18.0 17.9

Graduate degree 6.1 7.4 7.0 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.5

Total Percentage 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Total Number 266,623 238,821 264,705 271,304 262,181 250,709 217,812

Table 2.6 shows the highest level of educational achievement of marginal and discouraged men in

Ontario. The percentage of those without a high school diploma declined from 33.2 percent in

2010 to 18.9 percent in 2016. The share of those with a high school diploma as their highest level

47

of educational attainment rose from 18.4 percent in 2000 to 25.7 percent in 2016. The share of

men with a college or university degree also increased during the 2000-2016 period.

Table 2.6: Highest Educational Attainment of Marginally Attached Men in Ontario

Educational Level 2000 2010 2014 2016

0 to 8 years 4.5 2.2 2.1 2.4

Some secondary 28.7 21.9 17.0 16.5

Grade 11 to 13, grad 18.4 24.0 26.7 25.7

Some post-secondary 19.0 14.2 15.3 17.5

College diploma 16.4 978.8 21.0 21.2

Bachelor’s degree 8.0 10.9 12.3 10.9

Graduate degree 5.1 4.9 5.6 5.8

Total Percentage 100 100 100 100

Total 334,446 429,269 439,870 434,599

Table 2.7 shows the highest level of educational achievement of women who are marginally

attached to the workforce in Ontario. The share of women without a high school diploma almost

halved during 2000-2016. The share of those with a high school diploma and college diploma

stayed relatively constant during the above period. On the other hand, the share of women with a

university degree rose from 13.9 percent in 2000 to 24.7 percent in 2016.

Table 2.7: Highest Educational Attainment of Marginally Attached Women in Ontario

Educational Level 2000 2010 2014 2016

0 to 8 years 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.0

Some secondary 21.8 14.9 11.0 11.5

Grade 11 to 13, grad 21.2 23.0 25.9 21.3

Some post-secondary 19.5 14.6 16.1 17.7

College diploma 20.5 25.7 23.3 22.9

Bachelor’s degree 9.4 14.5 16.2 17.3

Graduate degree 4.5 4.5 5.2 7.4

Total Percentage 100 100 100 100

Total Number 334,225 440,062 414,492 424,092

Marital Status of Unemployed, Underemployed and Marginal Workers

Table 2.8 shows the marital status of unemployed men aged 25 and over in Ontario during 2000-

2016. The majority of the unemployed men are married. However, the share of unemployed

married men has declined from 50.5 percent in 2000 to 44.8 percent in 2016. The share of

unemployed single men aged 25 and over has increased from 31.0 percent in 2000 to 36.2 percent

in 2016.

48

Table 2.8: Percentage Distribution of Unemployed Men (25+) by Marital Status

Marital Status 2000 2010 2014 2016

Married 50.5 48.4 43.9 44.8

Living in common-law 7.5 9.8 9.5 9.1

Widowed 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.7

Separated 3.1 3.0 3.6 3.7

Divorced 7.3 7.7 3.2 5.6

Single, never married 31.0 30.1 39.3 36.2

The share of those who are separated or living in common-law has risen slightly during the above

period. A similar picture appears when one examines the marital status of unemployed women in

Ontario. The majority of the unemployed are married but their share has been declining. On the

other hand, the share of unemployed women who are single has risen slightly during the above

period. The share of those living in common-law has almost doubled during the above period.

Table 2.9: Percentage Distribution of Unemployed Women (25+) by Marital Status

Marital Status 2000 2010 2014 2016

Married 62.4 58.2 50.4 53.4


Widowed 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8

Separated 4.4 4.8 5.9 3.4

Divorced 6.1 6.9 6.2 7.4


Table 2.10 shows the marital status of underemployed men aged 25 and over in Ontario. The

majority of the underemployed men are married but their share has been declining. The share of

those living in common-law has been rising. Similarly, the share of underemployed single men has

been rising during 2000-2016.

Table 2.10: Percentage Distribution of Underemployed Men (25+) by Marital Status

Marital Status 2000 2010 2014 2016

Married 54.9 48.8 46.0 45.4


Widowed 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.2

Separated 2.1 4.9 1.7 2.8

Divorced 7.2 7.8 4.6 7.5


Table 2.11 shows the marital status of underemployed women aged 25 and over in Ontario. Again,

the majority of the underemployed women are married but their share has been declining. On the

other hand, the share of underemployed single women has been rising significantly during 2000-

2016.

49

Table 2.11: Percentage Distribution of Underemployed Women (25+) by Marital Status

Marital Status 2000 2010 2014 2016

Married 61.3 56.3 53.7 49.9


Widowed 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.1

Separated 4.8 6.4 5.9 5.7

Divorced 11.1 5.5 5.6 9.7


Table 2.12 shows the marital status of men who are either marginally attached to the workforce or

are discouraged from participating in the labour force. The majority of them are married even

though their share has been declining. A growing share are either living in a common-law

arrangement or are single.

Table 2.12: Percentage Distribution of Marginally Attached to the Workforce Men (25+)

Marital Status

Marital Status 2000 2010 2014 2016

Married 57.6 51.8 48.5 48.4


Widowed 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.0

Separated 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.6

Divorced 6.6 5.1 5.0 4.9


A similar picture appears when one examines the marital status of women who are marginally

attached to the workforce. The majority are married while their share has been declining. The share

of singles has been rising. The only difference is that the share of those who are either widowed,

separated or divorced appears to be greater among women who are marginally attached to the

workforce.

Table 2.13: Percentage Distribution of Marginally Attached to the Workforce Women (25+)

Marital Status

Marital Status 2000 2010 2014 2016

Married 66.7 60.6 56.1 58.5


Widowed 3.2 3.9 4.0 3.4

Separated 4.0 4.2 3.8 4.2

Divorced 5.5 6.7 8.2 6.8


Finally, it is important to see if the unemployed, underemployed and marginally attached workers

are the only employed individuals in their economic family or have financial support from other

members (Table 2.14).

50

Table 2.14: No. of Employed Persons in Economic Family

No. of Employed Unemployed Underemployed Marginal + Discouraged


0 36.9 30.2 - - 32.0 28.7

1 34.0 45.7 33.4 29.5 30.9 38.9

2 20.7 16.5 36.7 43.5 26.3 20.7

3 8.4 7.6 29.9 27.0 10.8 11.7

Table 2.14 shows that about 36.9 percent of the unemployed men and 30.2 percent of the

unemployed women had no employed person in their family. Similarly, about 32.0 percent of men

and 28.7 percent of women who were marginally attached to the workforce had no other employed

person in their family. About 33.4 percent of the underemployed men and 29.5 percent of the

underemployed women had no other employed person in the family. These are individuals who

are either living in poverty or are in danger of falling below the poverty line.

Socio-Economic Characteristics of Non-Working Ontarians

Information in this part is based on the Labour Force Survey microdata files in 2016. Overall, an

average of about 35.5 percent of individuals aged 15 and over in Ontario were not participating in

the labour market in 2016. Focusing on the population aged 25 to 64, about 19.2 percent were non-

participants in the labour market. This part of the study examines various socio-economic

characteristics of this segment of the population. Table 2.15 shows the percentage age distribution

of non-working Ontarians in 2016.

Table 2.15: Percentage Age Distribution of Non-Working Population

Age Category Men Women

15 to 19 14.3 9.4

20 to 24 8.7 6.3

25 to 29 3.0 3.7

30 to 34 2.4 4.5

35 to 39 1.8 3.8

40 to 44 1.8 3.7

45 to 49 2.4 3.5

50 to 54 4.2 4.8

55 to 59 5.7 6.0

60 to 64 9.1 9.3

65 to 69 13.5 12.5

70+ 33.2 32.5

More than 45.0 percent of the non-working population are 65 and over. The rest are in their

working-age years. About 15.6 and 24.0 percent of non-working men and women are in their prime

51

working-age respectively. Table 2.16 shows the highest level of educational attainment of the non-

working population aged 25 to 64.

Table 2.16: Highest Level of Educational Achievement of Non-Working Persons

(25 to 64 Years)

Highest Level of Education Men Women

0 to 8 years 4.9 5.9

Some secondary 16.2 10.8

Grade 11 to 13, graduated 26.6 26.2

Some post-secondary 7.2 5.2

Post-secondary certificate of diploma 25.7 26.8

University: bachelor’s degree 11.9 17.8

University: graduate degree 7.5 7.4

Total Percentage 100.0 100.0

Total Number 529,679 921,139

About 21.1 and 16.7 percent of non-working men and women respectively do not have a high

school diploma. On the other hand, 25.7 percent of non-working men and 26.8 percent of non-

working women have a post-secondary certificate or diploma. Many of the non-working

individuals have worked in the past. Table 2.17 shows the percentage of those who are not

currently working but have worked in the past.

Table 2.17: Work History of Non-Working Ontarians

(25 to 64 Years)

Worked in the Past Men Women

Yes, within last year 16.3 14.6

Yes, more than 1 year ago 70.9 65.0

No, never worked 12.8 20.4

Total 100.0 100.0

About 16.3 percent of non-working men and 14.6 percent of non-working women have worked

within the last year. About 70.9 percent of men and 65.0 percent of women have worked more

than one year ago. About 12.8 percent of men and 20.4 percent of women have never worked.

Analysis of the data shows that about 77.6 percent of men and 65.1 percent of women who were

employed in the past had full-time jobs (more than 30 hours per week). The rest or 22.4 percent of

men and 34.9 percent of women who were employed in the past had a part-time job (less than 29

hours per week). About 40.0 percent of those who worked in the past had lost their employment

due to economic conditions, including business closure, end of seasonal or temporary jobs,

company moving, etc.

Table 2.18 shows the marital status of the non-working Ontarians aged 25 to 64 in 2016. About

55.0 percent of men and 70.9 percent of women aged 25 to 64 were either married or living in a

common-law relationship. Labour Force Survey data shows that about 18.6 and 9.6 percent of

married men and women without a child had no working individual in the family in 2016. Also,

52

about 6.8 and 3.8 percent of married men and women with a child below the age of 18 years had

no member of the family working. Finally, 2.6 and 1.3 percent of married men and women with

children between the ages of 18 to 24 had no employment income.

Table 2.18: Marital Status of Non-Working People by Sex

(25 to 64 Years)

Marital Status Men Women

Married 46.8 64.2

Living in common-law 8.2 6.7

Widowed 1.6 3.9

Separated 3.2 4.2

Divorced 6.9 5.6

Single, never married 33.4 15.4

Total Percentage 100 .0 100.0

Total Numbers 529,679 921,139

Table 2.18 also shows that 33.4 percent of non-working men and 15.4 percent of non-working

women were single. About 1.2 and 8.3 percent of single parent men and women with children

under the age of 18 had no employment income. It is of interest to research who the single non-

working Ontarians are. Table 2.19 shows the percentage age distribution of the non-working

singles in Ontario in 2016.

Table 2.19: Percentage Age Distribution of Non-Working Singles

(25 to 64 Years)

Age Category Men Women

25 to 29 23.4 26.2

30 to 34 14.5 15.4

35 to 39 8.1 11.1

40 to 44 7.9 10.0

45 to 49 9.8 9.1

50 to 54 13.3 7.9

55 to 59 11.0 9.3

60 to 64 12.0 11.0

The majority of the non-working singles are between the ages of 25 to 29 followed by those

between the ages of 30 to 34 years. About 77.0 and 79.8 percent of the non-working single men

and women respectively are in their prime working-age.

Table 2.20 shows the highest level of educational attainment of non-working singles aged 25 to 64

in Ontario in 2016.

53

Table 2.20: Highest Level of Educational Attainment of Non-Working Singles

(25 to 64 Years)

Level of Educational Attainment Men Women

0 to 8 years 5.6 6.6

Some secondary 20.3 15.5

Grade 11 to 13,grad 27.9 23.6

Some post-secondary 11.8 7.4

Post-secondary certificate of diploma 20.3 28.2

University: bachelor’s degree 8.6 14.1

University: graduate degree 5.5 4.6

Total 176,809 141,407

About 25.9 and 22.1 percent of non-working single men and women respectively do not have a

high school diploma. About 27.9 and 23.6 percent of non-working single men and women have a

high school diploma. About 8.6 and 14.1 percent of men and women respectively have a university

degree and 5.5 and 4.6 percent of them have a graduate degree. It is likely that many of these

individuals are among the discouraged workers who have not been able to find employment in the

past.

The next part of this study examines spatial dimension of unemployment with a special focus on

various sub-groups of the population namely total, Aboriginal, Francophone, immigrants and

visible minorities and persons with disabilities. We examine differences between the various socio-

economic characteristics of these groups and focus on the factors explaining the differences

between the unemployment rates between these segments of the provincial population.

54

PART III: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG TOTAL

POPULATION IN ONTARIO

This part of the study examines the socio-economic profile of the unemployed individuals in

Ontario. We pay special attention to rural-urban distinction. The focus is on the labour market

performance of individuals in rural and urban Ontario. In addition, we examine the socio-economic

profile of those on social assistance.25

Before examining labour market characteristics of the population in rural and urban Ontario, we

need to define the term ‘rural’. There has been an age-old debate to determine whether rural is a

geographical concept or a social representation or a culture and a way of life. This report focusses

on the geographical classifications of rural regions. There are at least six different definitions of

rural areas each emphasizing different criteria such as population size, population density and

labour market context. Different definitions result in different estimates of the rural and urban

population.

Statistics Canada suggests that “the appropriate definition should be determined by the question

being addressed; however, if we were to recommend one definition as a starting-point or

benchmark for understanding Canada’s rural population, it would be the “rural and small town”

definition. This is the population living in towns and municipalities outside the commuting zone

of larger urban centres (i.e. outside the commuting zone of centres with a population of 10,000 or

more).”26

Based on the above information, one can define rural and small town (RST) to refer to the

population living outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs).

A CMA is a grouping of census subdivisions comprising a large urban core and the surrounding

urban fringes that are closely integrated with the core. To qualify as a CMA, an area has to have

an urban core population of at least 100,000 and includes all neighboring Census Sub-Divisions

(CSDs) where:

1. 50% or more of the employed labour force living in the CSD commutes to work in the

urban core, or

25 The information used for this analysis is based on the variable in the 2011 Public-Use microdata files that refers to all transfer payments, excluding those covered as a separate income source (child benefit, Old Age Security pension and Guaranteed Income Supplement, Canada or Quebec Pension Plan benefit and Employment Insurance benefit) received from federal, provincial, territorial or municipal programs in calendar year 2010. This variable includes social assistance payments received by persons in need, such as mothers with dependent children, persons temporarily or permanently unable to work, elderly individuals, the blind and the disabled. Included are provincial income supplement payments to seniors and provincial payments to help offset accommodation costs. Also included are other transfer payments such as payments received from training programs sponsored by the federal and provincial governments, veterans' pensions, war veterans' allowance, pensions to widows and dependents of veterans, and workers' compensation. Additionally, working income tax benefits, refundable provincial tax credits and refunds of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) or the harmonized sales tax (HST) received in 2010 are included. 26 Pleassis, V.D., R. Badhiri, R.D. Bollman and H. Clemenson, Definitions of “Rural”, Statistics Canada, Agriculture Division, December 2002, Catalogue NO. 21-601-MIE – No. 061.

55

2. 25% or more of the employed labour force working in the CSD commutes to work from

the urban core.

A CA is a smaller version of a CMA and has an urban core population between 10,000 and 99,999

people. When a CA has a core of at least 50,000, it is subdivided into census tracts and is referred

to as being “tracted”. The CAs with a core of less than 50,000 that have not been previously tracted

are referred to as “untracted”. The same commuting flow thresholds also apply in the description

of CAs. Therefore, rural and small town refers to the non-CMA/CA population.

Using recently developed Statistical Area Classification (SAC), one can group various census

subdivisions in a province according to whether they are a part of a census metropolitan area or a

census agglomeration in which case they are referred to as urban areas or a part of census

metropolitan influenced zones referred to as rural areas with different degrees of rurality. Statistics

Canada defines various metropolitan influenced zone (MIZ) categories as follows:

1. Strong MIZ includes CSDs with a commuting flow of 30 percent or more. In other words,

at least 30 percent of the total employed labour force living in the CSD works in any

CMA/CA urban core;

2. Moderate MIZ includes CSDs with a commuting flow of between 5 and 30 percent. This

means that at least 5 percent, but less than 30 percent of the total employed labour force

living in the municipality works in any CMA/CA urban core;

3. Weak MIZ includes CSDs with a commuting flow of more than 0 percent, but less than 5

percent suggesting that more than 0 percent, but less than 5 percent of the total employed

labour force living in the municipality works in any CMA/CA urban core;

4. No MIZ includes CSDs with either fewer than 40 people in the resident labour force or

where no people commute to the urban core of any CMA or CA.

Total Population in Ontario

Ontario’s total population increased from 11.3 million in 2001 to 12.7 million in 2011, a growth

of about 12.7 percent during 2001-2011 (Figure 4).27 The urban population grew by 15.1 percent

while the rural and small town population declined by 7.3 percent during 2001-2011. In fact, the

population living in rural and small towns has declined both in absolute and relative terms. The

share of Ontario’s population living in rural and small towns declined from 10.7 percent in 2001

to 8.8 percent in 2011.

27 Note the sum of the urban and rural population based on the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS) is slightly different from the 2011 Census aggregate population estimate.

56

The 574 Census Subdivisions (CSDs) in the province of Ontario consist of 92 Census Metropolitan

Areas (CMAs) and 56 Census Agglomerations (CAs) which are considered as urban areas. The

other 426 CSDs are classified as rural areas with different degrees of rurality based on the degree

of metropolitan influence as indicated by the degree of commuting to any CMA or CA. This

classification disaggregates rural areas into four types of zones, namely strong, moderate, weak

and no metropolitan influence zones (MIZ).

The distribution of the rural population has also changed over time. The rural population living in

areas designated as strong MIZ increased during 2001-2011. This is likely due to relocation of ex-

urbanites to the countryside. The rural areas designated as moderate MIZ experienced population

decline during 2001-2011. The rural areas designated as weak MIZ show slight increase in their

population. Finally, areas designated as no metropolitan influenced zones lost population during

2001-2011. Figure 3.2 shows the distribution of rural-urban population in Ontario in 2011.

10.08

1.21

11.29 11.60

1.12

12.72

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Urban Rural Total

Figure 3.1: Urban-Rural Population in Ontario (millions)

2001 2011

10,127,355

1,104,930 633,765 544,985 221,175 19,580

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

CMA CA STRONG MODERATE WEAK NO INFLUENCE

Figure 3.2: Distribution of Urban & Rural Population in Ontario in 2011

57

Figure 3.2 shows that about 80.0 percent of Ontario’s population lives in CMAs, 8.7 percent lives

in CAs. Therefore, about 88.8 percent of the province’s population lives in urban areas. The rest

or 11.2 percent lives in rural and small town areas with different degrees of rurality. The majority

of the provincial population living in relatively remote areas that have weak or no link to urban

centres are of Aboriginal origin residing on relatively remote reserves.

In what follows we examine various labour market indicators of Ontario’s population and pay

special attention to the degree of rurality. We examine whether the average labour force

participation, employment and unemployment rates vary when one moves from urban centres to

rural areas.

Labour Force Participation Rate by Age and Geography

Table 3.1 and Figure 3.3 shows the participation rate in urban and rural Ontario by age and

geography in 2011.

Table 3.1: Labour Force Participation Rate in Ontario

Total Population Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted) Strong Moderate Weak

No

Influence

15 years & over 65.5 66.5 60.5 60.9 66.3 59.4 61.7 54.7

15 to 64 years 76.0 76.3 73.3 74.5 77.6 73.6 74.4 60.2

15 to 24 years 58.6 57.3 64.2 64.0 65.3 64.1 62.4 37.9

25 to 34 years 84.9 84.9 81.6 85.0 86.8 86.1 84.8 64.6

35 to 44 years 86.3 86.2 84.5 86.2 89.5 86.3 87.1 74.5

45 to 54 years 84.7 85.0 82.9 82.8 86.4 82.8 82.8 70.2

55 to 64 years 63.2 64.7 55.4 57.8 62.9 56.6 58.9 58.8

65 years &over 13.6 13.6 10.5 11.6 17.0 13.9 13.3 13.7

The average participation rate varies from a low of 54.7 percent in remote areas to 66.5 percent in

CMAs. Individuals aged from 25 to 54 are in their prime working-age years and have the highest

65.5 66.5 60.5 60.9

66.3 59.4 61.7

54.7

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Total CMA CA(tracted)

CA(untracted)

Strong Moderate Weak NoInfluence

Figure 3.2: Aggregate Participation Rate by Geography

58

labour force participation rate. Those aged 65 and older have the lowest participation rate even

though their participation rate has risen significantly in the recent decade.

Tables 3.2 and 3.3 show the labour force participation rate of men and women by age and

geography in Ontario in 2011.

Table 3.2: Labour Force Participation Rate for Men by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA


No

Influence

15 years & over 69.9 70.9 64.1 65.4 70.4 63.6 65.4 58.8

15 to 64 years 79.6 79.9 76.2 78.0 81.2 77.4 77.3 63.4

15 to 24 years 57.9 56.4 63.3 64.0 65.9 64.5 62.3 40.1

25 to 34 years 89.6 89.4 87.0 90.1 92.8 91.4 90.3 69.1

35 to 44 years 91.4 91.6 87.9 90.0 93.5 89.8 90.5 77.0

45 to 54 years 88.6 89.0 86.2 86.0 89.8 86.8 85.4 75.3

55 to 64 years 69.7 71.5 59.7 63.4 68.5 62.6 63.6 63.2

65 years &over 18.5 18.6 14.2 16.0 22.5 18.7 18.2 18.4

Table 3.3: Labour Force Participation Rate for Women by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA


No

Influence

15 years &over 61.4 62.3 57.1 56.8 62.2 55.3 58.1 50.5

15 to 64 years 72.6 72.8 70.6 71.2 74.1 69.9 71.6 56.7

15 to 24 years 59.3 58.3 65.2 64.0 64.6 63.6 62.4 35.3

25 to 34 years 80.6 80.8 76.5 80.0 80.9 80.7 79.8 60.3

35 to 44 years 81.6 81.2 81.2 82.7 85.7 83.1 84.1 71.5

45 to 54 years 81.0 81.1 79.9 79.7 82.9 79.1 80.1 64.7

55 to 64 years 57.3 58.5 51.3 52.6 57.2 50.8 54.3 54.0

65 years & over 9.5 9.6 7.3 7.9 11.8 9.4 8.7 10.1

The participation rate for men ranges from a low of 58.8 percent in remote areas to 70.9 percent

in CMAs. For women, the rate varies from a low of 50.5 percent in remote regions to 62.3 percent

in CMAs. Persons in their prime working-age group (25 to 54 years) have the highest participation

rate. The participation rate among men aged 65 and over is about twice that for women in the same

age group. In general, the participation rate for men is much greater than the rate for women in

urban as well as rural areas (Figure 3.3). On average, the gap between the participation rate of men

and women is about 8.5 percent irrespective of the degree of rurality.

59

Employment Rate by Age and Geography

Table 3.4 shows the average employment rate in Ontario by age and geography in 2011. As

discussed before, employment rate shows the percentage of the working-age population that is

employed. The employment rate varies from a low of 45.7 percent in remote rural areas to a high

of 66.5 percent in CMAs. As was the case for the participation rate, the employment rate is highest

among the prime working-age men (25 to 54). It is lowest, but has been rising among those aged

65 and over.

Table 3.4: Employment Rate by Age and Degree of Rurality in Ontario in 2011

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 60.1 66.5 54.9 55.8 61.9 54.5 56.5 45.7

15 to 64 years 69.6 76.3 66.5 68.2 72.4 67.5 68.1 50.0

15 to 24 years 46.7 57.3 49.0 51.4 54.4 52.4 50.9 26.2

25 to 34 years 78.1 84.9 74.1 77.3 80.8 77.7 76.5 51.5

35 to 44 years 81.3 86.2 78.8 81.6 85.9 81.4 82.4 63.7

45 to 54 years 80.1 85.0 79.1 78.2 82.7 78.5 78.5 60.8

55 to 64 years 59.5 64.7 52.4 54.3 59.7 52.9 54.7 54.1

65 years & over 12.7 13.6 9.6 10.9 16.2 13.1 12.4 13.1

Tables 3.5 and 3.6 show the employment rates for men and women in Ontario by age and

geography in 2011. The employment rate for men ranged from a low of 48.1 percent in remote

rural areas to 65.8 percent in rural areas designated as having a strong link to urban centres. These

are likely the employed ex-urbanites who relocated to the countryside. For women, it varied from

a low of 43.3 percent in remote rural regions to 58.0 percent in rural areas with a strong link to

urban centres. The employment rate is highest among the prime working-age persons and lowest

for those aged 65 and over.

69.9 70.9 64.1 65.4

70.4 63.6 65.4

58.8 61.4 62.3 57.1 56.8

62.2

55.3 58.1 50.5

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Total CMA CA(tracted)

CA(untracted)

Strong Moderate Weak NoInfluence

Figure 3.3: Participation Rate (%)

Men Women

60

Table 3.5: Employment Rate for Men by Age and Degree of Rurality in Ontario in 2011

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 64.2 65.1 57.6 59.5 65.8 58.0 59.3 48.1

15 to 64 years 72.9 73.2 68.5 70.8 75.8 70.5 70.0 51.5

15 to 24 years 45.6 44.3 47.1 50.6 55.1 52.8 51.2 28.2

25 to 34 years 82.6 82.7 78.1 82.2 86.9 81.9 80.7 52.2

35 to 44 years 86.6 86.9 81.5 84.3 89.7 84.0 84.2 64.5

45 to 54 years 83.8 84.1 82.1 80.7 86.1 82.1 80.2 62.4

55 to 64 years 65.2 67.0 56.1 59.0 64.8 57.8 58.2 59.5

65 years & over 17.4 17.5 12.8 15.1 21.4 17.4 16.8 17.7

Table 3.6: Employment Rate for Women by Age and Degree of Rurality in Ontario in 2011

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years &over 56.3 57.0 52.3 52.3 58.0 51.2 53.8 43.3

15 to 64 years 66.5 66.6 64.6 65.6 69.0 64.6 66.2 48.4

15 to 24 years 47.9 47.0 51.0 52.3 53.5 51.9 50.5 23.5

25 to 34 years 73.9 74.1 70.5 72.5 74.9 73.5 72.7 51.4

35 to 44 years 76.4 75.8 76.1 78.9 82.2 78.9 80.8 63.2

45 to 54 years 76.6 76.6 76.4 75.9 79.2 75.2 76.8 58.8

55 to 64 years 54.1 55.2 48.9 50.0 54.5 48.2 51.3 48.9

65 years & over 8.8 8.9 6.9 7.4 11.3 8.9 8.4 10.1

In general, the employment rate is higher for men compared to women (Figure 3.4). The gap

between the employment rate of men and women averages about 8.0 percent.

64.2 65.1 57.6 59.5

65.8 58.0 59.3

48.1 56.3 57.0

52.3 52.3 58.0

51.2 53.8

43.3

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Total CMA CA (tracted) CA(untracted)

Strong Moderate Weak No Influence

Figure 3.4: Aggregate Employment Rate (%)

Men Women

61

Total Unemployment Rate by Age and Geography

Table 3.7 shows the unemployment rate in Ontario by age and geography in 2011. The rate is

lowest in rural areas (6.7%) designated as having a strong link to urban centres. As mentioned

above, this is likely due to relocation of employed ex-urbanites to the countryside. The

unemployment rate is highest in remote rural areas (16.4%). The unemployment rate is lowest

among the prime working-age group. Those aged 15 to 24 register the highest unemployment rate

among all age groups in all regions.

Table 3.7: Unemployment Rate by Age and Degree of Rurality in Ontario in 2011

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 8.3 8.3 9.2 8.4 6.7 8.2 8.4 16.4

15 to 64 years 8.4 8.4 9.3 8.5 6.8 8.3 8.5 16.9

15 to 24 years 20.2 20.5 23.7 19.6 16.7 18.3 18.4 30.4

25 to 34 years 8.0 7.9 9.1 9.0 6.9 9.7 9.8 20.1

35 to 44 years 5.9 6.0 6.8 5.4 4.0 5.8 5.4 14.3

45 to 54 years 5.4 5.5 4.6 5.6 4.3 5.2 5.2 13.4

55 to 64 years 5.9 6.0 5.4 6.0 5.1 6.5 7.1 7.0

65 years & over 6.1 6.2 8.2 6.0 4.6 5.9 6.6 -

Tables 3.8 and 3.9 show the unemployment rate among men and women by age and geography in

Ontario in 2011. The unemployment rate is lowest for persons living in rural areas with a strong

link to urban centers and highest for those residing in remote regions. The unemployment rate is

lowest for persons aged 25 to 64 and highest for those aged 15 to 24. The aggregate unemployment

rate was equal for men and women in 2011. However, there has been geographical differences

between the two (Figure 3.5). The unemployment rate has been higher for men living in CAs and

rural areas designated as having moderate to no link to urban centres. It is lower for men living in

CMAs and rural areas designated as having strong link to urban centres.

Table 3.8: Unemployment Rate for Men by Age and Degree of Rurality in Ontario in 2011

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 8.3 8.2 10.1 9.0 6.6 8.8 9.3 18.3

15 to 64 years 8.4 8.3 10.1 9.2 6.7 8.9 9.4 18.8

15 to 24 years 21.1 21.5 25.5 20.8 16.3 18.2 17.9 29.6

25 to 34 years 7.7 7.5 10.3 8.7 6.3 10.4 10.6 24.5

35 to 44 years 5.3 5.2 7.3 6.3 4.0 6.5 6.9 16.2

45 to 54 years 5.4 5.5 4.8 6.2 4.1 5.5 6.2 17.1

55 to 64 years 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.9 5.4 7.8 8.5 6.7

65 years & over 5.8 5.7 9.7 5.4 4.8 6.7 8.0 -

Table 3.9: Unemployment Rate for Women by Age and Degree of Rurality in Ontario in 2011

62

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 8.3 8.4 8.3 7.8 6.8 7.5 7.4 14.2

15 to 64 years 8.3 8.5 8.4 7.8 6.9 7.6 7.5 14.6

15 to 24 years 19.2 19.3 21.8 18.3 17.2 18.3 19.0 32.4

25 to 34 years 8.3 8.3 7.9 9.3 7.4 8.9 9.0 15.4

35 to 44 years 6.4 6.7 6.2 4.6 4.1 5.1 3.9 12.3

45 to 54 years 5.4 5.5 4.3 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.2 8.5

55 to 64 years 5.5 5.6 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.6 8.5

65 years & over 6.7 7.2 5.5 7.2 4.4 4.5 4.0 -

Labour Market Indicators by Highest Level of Educational Attainment

Table 3.10 shows the percentage distribution of persons aged 15 years and over in Ontario by

highest level of education and geography in 2011.

Table 3.10: Population 15 years and over by Highest Level of Educational Achievement in 2011

Highest Level of Education Total CMA

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

No certificate, diploma or degree 18.7 17.5 21.6 24.3 26.0 48.4

High school diploma or equivalency certificate 26.8 26.2 29.4 28.7 25.9 21.6

Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma 7.4 6.5 11.2 11.3 11.7 8.8

College, CEGEP or other non-university

certificate or diploma 19.8 19.1 22.8 21.8 22.3 15.2

University certificate or diploma below bachelor

level 4.1 4.5 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.1

Total University certificate, diploma or degree at

bachelor level or above 23.4 26.2 12.5 11.5 11.6 3.9

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

8.3 8.2 10.1

9.0 6.6

8.8 9.3

18.3

8.3 8.4 8.3 7.8 6.8 7.5

7.4

14.2

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0



Figure 3.5: Unemployment Rate (%) by Degree of Rurality

Men Women

63

The level of educational attainment declines as one moves from urban to rural areas. Persons living

in CMAs have the highest level of educational attainment. The majority of those living in rural

areas with a weak or no link to urban centres have less than a high school education. Obviously,

the level of educational attainment influences the likelihood of employment and unemployment.

Table 3.11 shows the participation rate by highest level of educational attainment by geography in

2011.

Table 3.11: Participation Rate by Education and Geography

Highest Level of Education Total CMA Strong Moderate Weak

No

Influence






Total University certificate, diploma or degree

at bachelor level or above 79.1 79.9 78.0 66.3 74.3 76.8

The labour force participation rate rises from a low of 36.4 percent for those without a high school

diploma to 79.1 percent for those with a university degree. In addition to geography, the place

where the post-secondary education is attained also affects labour market performance. This is

shown in Figure 3.6. In general, persons whose credentials are obtained outside Canada have a

lower labour force participation rate compared to those with a degree from inside Canada. The

participation gap between those with a degree from inside or outside of Canada equals 8.5 percent.

Statistics Canada reports that newcomers face barriers that may impede the recognition of their

credentials and work experience, with consequences for their labour market performance and

77.7 79.2 76.3 68.2

73.1 73.8 69.2 70.1

56.6 50.7

57.6 66.7

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Total CMA Strong Moderate Weak No Influence

Figure 3.6: Participation Rate of Persons with Post-Secondary Education

inside Canada Outside Canada

64

broader integration within Canadian society.28 They state that potential factors include the content

of foreign education being deemed less relevant to the needs of the Canadian labour market than

the country where the education was completed, linguistic ability in English or French, and the

entry procedures in some trades and professions. Unfamiliarity with foreign degrees among

employers may also play a role.29 Some suggest that the decentralized accreditation system appears

to be a hurdle, with numerous trade and professional bodies being involved, and provinces having

their own standards for evaluating degrees and setting certification norms for trades and

professions.30 As a result, Statistics Canada reports that the newcomers experience a higher rate of

unemployment, lower employment rate and lower earnings. They report that education-to-job

mismatch is particularly prevalent among recent immigrants with university education. In

addition, they report that “a recent analysis of 2006 Census data shows that just under one-quarter

(24%) of employed foreign-educated, university-level immigrants were working in a regulated

occupation that matched their field of study, compared to 62% of their Canadian-born counterparts.

And among immigrants whose occupation did not match their field of study, 77% worked in jobs

that do not usually require a degree, compared to 57% of 'unmatched' Canadian-born graduates.”31

Table 3.12 shows the employment rate by highest level of educational attainment and degree of

rurality. It shows that irrespective of the degree of rurality, the employment rate rises as the level

of education increases. Persons residing in rural areas with a strong link to urban centers have the

highest employment rates for all levels of educational attainment.

Table 3.12: Employment Rate by Highest Level of Educational Attainment & Geography

Level of Education Total CMA

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ








Persons with post-secondary degree from Canada have significantly higher employment rates

compared to immigrants with a foreign degree (Figure 3.7). The employment gap is largest in rural

areas with a strong link to urban centres (18.2%) followed by those residing in rural areas with

28 Statistics Canada, Rene Houle and Lahouaria Yssaad, “Recognition of newcomers’ foreign credentials and work experience”, September 2010. 29 Mata, Fernando. 1999. The Non-Accreditation of Immigrant Professionals in Canada: Societal Dimensions of the Problem. Ottawa. Metropolis. 30 McDade. Kathryn. 1988. Barriers to Recognition of the Credentials of Immigrants in Canada. Discussion Paper 88.B.1. Ottawa. Studies in Social Policy. 60 p. 31 Zietsma, Danielle. 2010. “Immigrants working in regulated occupations.” Perspectives on Labour and Income. Vol. 11, no. 2. February. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 75-001-X. (accessed August 10, 2010).




65

moderate (16.3%) and weak (15.1%) link to urban centres. The employment gap is smallest in

remote rural regions with no link to urban centres (6.3%).

Table 3.13 shows the unemployment rate by highest level of educational achievement and degree

of rurality. The unemployment rate is highest for persons without a high school diploma (14.3%)

followed by those with a high school diploma (10.9%). In general, the unemployment rate declines

as the level of educational attainment rises. Remote rural regions have higher unemployment rates

than urban centres.

Table 3.13: Unemployment Rate by Highest Level of Educational Attainment & Geography

Level of Education Total CMA

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ








The unemployment rate is higher for immigrants with a foreign degree in urban centres (Figure

3.8). It declines as one moves to rural areas. It is lowest in rural regions with a strong link to urban

centres.

73.2 74.5 72.5

64.2 69.1

64.6 64.0 64.7

54.3 47.9

54.0 58.3

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Total CMA STRONG MODERATE WEAK No influence

Figure 3.7: Employment Rate (%)

Inside Canada Outside Canada

66

Labour Market Indicators by Economic Family Structure

Economic family refers to a group of two or more persons who live in the same dwelling and are

related to each other by blood, marriage, common-law or adoption. A couple may be of opposite

or same sex. Foster children are also included. Table 3.14 shows the age distribution of couple and

lone-parent families in Ontario.

Table 3.14: Percentage Age Distribution of Economic Families

Age Group Couple Families Lone-Parent Families

15 to 64 years 84.6 91.2

15 to 24 years 15.8 30.9

25 to 34 years 14.7 15.2

35 to 44 years 17.8 16.0

45 to 54 years 20.3 19.6

55 to 64 years 16.1 9.6

65 years and over 15.4 8.8

Under 15 years 100.0 100.0

Total Number 15 years & over 7,555,455 1,043,405

Most of the couple families (20.3%) are between the ages of 45 and 54 followed by those in 35-

44 age category (17.8%). On the other hand, majority of the lone-parent families (30.9%) are

between the ages of 15 and 24 years. Overall, about 52.8 percent of the couple families and 50.7

percent of lone-parent families are in their prime working-age.

Figure 3.9 shows the participation rate by family structure and age group in Ontario. The

participation rate among the lone-parent families is lower than the rate among the couple families

in all age classes except for those between the ages of 55 and 64 years. Overall, the participation

gap for those aged 15 to 64 equals 8.6 percent.

5.9 5.9 5.0

5.8 5.4

12.4

7.5 7.6

4.2

5.5 6.1

12.5

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Total CMA STRONG MODERATE WEAK No influence

Figure 3.8: Unemployment Rate (%)

Inside Canada Outside Canada

67

Figure 3.10 shows the employment rate by family structure and age group. The employment rate

among lone-parent families is lower than those among couple families for all age groups except

for those between the ages of 55 and 64. The employment gap for persons between the ages of 15

and 64 equals 11.9 percent. The gap is at its highest level of 13.7 percent for those aged 25 and 34

and is relatively low for those aged 55 and over.

Figure 3.11 shows the unemployment rate by family structure and age group. The unemployment

rate is higher for lone-parent families irrespective of their age. The unemployment gap reaches as

high as 6.7 percent for those between the ages of 25 and 34 followed by those aged 15 to 24 (5.0%).

Overall, the unemployment gap for those between the ages of 15 to 64 equals 5.6 percent.

67.5 77.0

58.7

85.3 87.2 86.6

64.0

15.2

63.3 68.4

52.2

76.0 79.5 80.3

65.6

10.8

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 + years

Figure 3.9: Participation Rate by Economic Family Status (%)

Couple family Lone-parent family

62.4

71.2

47.1

78.8 82.7 82.5

60.6

14.3

55.0 59.3

39.3

65.2 72.5 74.7

61.3

10.0

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

15 yearsand over


Figure 3.10: Employment Rate by Economic Family Status (%)


68

Labour Market Performance of Persons with Disabilities

Overall, about 20.0 percent of individuals in Ontario reported having difficulty with daily activity

and/or having activity limitations in 2011. Table 3.15 shows their age distribution. In general,

activity limitation rises with age. Only 6.1 percent of individuals aged 15 to 24 reported having

activity limitations compared to 35.9 percent of individuals aged 65 and over. About 57.8 percent

of individuals who reported having activity limitations are between the ages of 15 and 64. About

32.3 percent of them are in their prime working-age and 35.9 percent are 65 years of age and over.

Table 3.15: No. of Persons with daily activity and/or activity limitation

Age Group No. of Persons Percentage of Total

Under 15 years 159,630 6.2

15 years and over 2,411,910 93.8

15 to 64 years 1,487,390 57.8

15 to 24 years 156,455 6.1

25 to 34 years 164,000 6.4

35 to 44 years 234,805 9.1

45 to 54 years 431,525 16.8

55 to 64 years 500,605 19.5

65 years and over 924,515 35.9

Total - Age groups 2,571,540 100.00

Statistics Canada reports that “the most commonly reported disabilities among Canadians were

mental/psychological (3.9%); dexterity (3.5%); hearing (3.2%); seeing (2.7%); followed by

memory and learning disabilities (2.3%) each. Less than 1 percent of Canadian adults reported a

7.6 7.6

19.7

7.6 5.2 4.7 5.4 5.5

13.2 13.3

24.7

14.3

8.8 7.0 6.6 7.5

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

15 yearsand over


Figure 3.11: Unemployment Rate by Economic Family Status (%)


69

developmental disability.”32 They report that “The most prevalent types of disability also vary by

age. In the youngest age group, 15 to 24, the most commonly reported types of disability were

mental/psychological disabilities (2.2%); learning disabilities (2.0%); and pain (1.9%). Among

those aged 45 to 64, the most common were pain (12.7%); flexibility (9.8%); and mobility (8.6%).

While these three types of disabilities are also the most commonly reported among seniors, the

prevalence was higher: 22.1% for pain, 20.5% for mobility and 19.3% for flexibility. The

prevalence of hearing disabilities was also high among seniors, 10.4%.”33 The report finds that

women have a higher prevalence of disability in all age groups. About 14.9 percent of adult women

reported having a disability compared to 12.5 percent for men. In terms of the intensity of

difficulties and the frequency of activity limitations, about 26.0 percent of persons with disabilities

were classified as having a very severe disability, 22.5 percent were classified as severe, 19.8

percent moderate and 31.7 percent were classified as mild.34

Table 3.16 shows the participation rate of persons who reported having activity limitations. As a

benchmark, we have included information on persons who reported no difficulty at home or work.

Individuals who reported difficulty at home and in other activities have the lowest participation

rates followed by those who reported having difficulty at home only. On average, the participation

rate among persons aged 15 and over who reported having difficulty with daily activity and/or

activity limitations equaled 40.3 percent compared to 73.3 percent for those without a disability.

Table 3.16: Participation Rate of Persons with Activity Limitations

Age Group

No

Difficult

y

Difficulty with daily activity

and/or activity limitations

Limited at

Home Only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 73.3 40.3 23.8 13.7

15 to 64 years 79.4 59.7 43.9 27.9

15 to 24 years 59.7 47.2 44.4 31.9

25 to 34 years 86.6 70.2 52.5 38.7

35 to 44 years 88.8 70.3 53.3 37.8

45 to 54 years 89.6 66.6 51.3 31.7

55 to 64 years 69.7 49.1 34.5 21.8

65 years & over 18.7 9.1 7.2 4.1

Table 3.17 shows the employment rate of individuals with disabilities. The employment rate of

persons with disabilities is much lower than that for those without a disability. On average, the

employment rate among persons aged 15 and over who reported having difficulty with daily

activity and/or activity limitations equaled 36.1 percent compared to 67.5 percent for those without

a disability.

32 Statistics Canada, Canadian Survey on Disability 2012, “Disability in Canada: Initial findings from the Canadian Survey on Disability”, Publication No. 89-654-X 33 Ibid. 34 Ibid.

70

Table 3.17: Employment Rate of Persons with Activity Limitations

Age Group

No

Difficulty

Difficulty with daily

activity and/or activity

limitations

Limited at

Home

Only

Limited at home

and in other

activities

15 years & over 67.5 36.1 20.5 11.7

15 to 64 73.1 53.3 37.7 23.6

15 to 24 48.0 35.0 32.4 18.8

25 to 34 80.1 61.4 42.2 31.0

35 to 44 84.1 63.4 44.9 31.9

45 to 54 85.3 61.1 45.4 27.2

55 to 64 66.1 45.0 30.3 18.8

65 years & over 17.7 8.4 6.4 3.6

Table 3.18 shows the unemployment rate among individuals who reported having activity

limitation. Individuals who are limited at home or in other activities have the highest

unemployment rates in all age groups. On average, the unemployment rate among persons aged

15 and over who reported having difficulty with daily activity and/or activity limitations equaled

10.4 percent compared to 7.9 percent for those without a disability.

Table 3.18: Unemployment Rate of Persons with Activity Limitations

Age Group

No

Difficulty

Difficulty with daily

activity and/or activity

limitations

Limited at

Home Only

Limited at home

and in other

activities

15 years & over 7.9 10.4 13.6 14.7

15 to 64 8.0 10.7 14.1 15.4

15 to 24 19.7 25.9 27.0 41.1

25 to 34 7.6 12.6 19.7 19.9

35 to 44 5.4 9.8 15.8 15.6

45 to 54 4.8 8.4 11.6 14.2

55 to 64 5.1 8.4 12.2 13.6

65 years & over 5.2 8.0 10.9 11.6

Socio-Economic Profile of Low-Income Persons Aged 25 to 64 Receiving Government

Assistance

As mentioned above, the variable in the 2011 Census that provides information on social assistance

recipients also includes payments to seniors and veterans and others. Also included are other

transfer payments such as payments received from training programs sponsored by the federal and

provincial governments, veterans' pensions, war veterans' allowance, pensions to widows and

dependents of veterans, and workers' compensation. Additionally, working income tax benefits,

refundable provincial tax credits and refunds of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) or the

harmonized sales tax (HST) received in 2010 are included.

71

To exclude school-age persons as well as seniors, we focus on individuals between the ages of 25

and 64. We also select individuals who are either in economic families or not, who are a member

of a low income economic family or person based on low income before tax cut-offs as defined by

Statistics Canada. Finally, we exclude individuals who are employed from our sample and focus

on those who received more than $1000 in government transfer payments. Therefore, our sample

includes transfer payment recipients between the ages of 25 and 64 who were not employed, were

members of a low-income family or person and received more than $1000 in transfer payments in

2010. Table 3.19 shows the percentage distribution of individuals in the sample in Ontario by

ethnicity in 2011.

Table 3.19: Percentage Distribution of Low-Income Transfer Payment Recipients

(25 to 64)

Ethnicity Percentage

Francophone 4.0

Immigrants 39.2

Aboriginal 5.3

Visible Minority 33.7

Others not specific to the above four groups 47.1

Note the sum of the percentages in Table 3.19 is greater than 100 percent since there is an overlap

between different categories. Table 3.19 shows that a small percentage of non-working low income

persons are of Aboriginal or Francophone origin. About 33.7 percent are among the visible

minority population, 39.2 percent are immigrants and the rest or 47.1 percent are Ontarians who

are not among the four ethnic groups in Table 3.19.

Table 3.20 shows the percentage age distribution of low-income transfer payment recipients in

Ontario in 2011.

Table 3.20: Age Distribution of Persons in the Sample

Age Group Men Women

25 to 29 years 9.5 12.4

30 to 34 years 8.5 10.9

35 to 39 years 9.4 10.9

40 to 44 years 12.0 11.8

45 to 49 years 15.5 14.1

50 to 54 years 15.5 13.4

55 to 59 years 14.7 12.8

60 to 64 years 15.0 13.7

Total 100.0 100.0

About 70.3 percent of low income men who receive government assistance are in their prime

working-age (25-54) group. Similarly, 73.5 percent of women in the sample are in their prime

working-age group. The rest or 29.7 and 26.5 percent of men and women respectively are between

the ages of 55 and 64.

72

Table 3.21 shows the highest level of educational attainment of persons in the sample in 2011.

Table 3.21: Highest level of Educational Achievement of Transfer Payment Recipients

Highest Level of Educational Attainment Men Women

No certificate, diploma or degree 26.84 27.32

High school diploma or equivalent 27.01 29.66

Trades certificate or diploma (other than apprenticeship) 5.73 4.85

Registered Apprenticeship certificate 4.06 1.91

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (3 months to less

than 1 year) 1.68 4.57

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (1 to 2 years) 6.68 10.3

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (more than 2 years) 5.66 5.87

University certificate or diploma below bachelor level 3.86 3.21

Bachelor's degree 9.76 7.89

University certificate or diploma above bachelor level 1.77 1.39

Degree in medicine, dentistry, veterinary medicine or optometry 0.78 0.3

Master's degree 5.22 2.46

Earned doctorate degree 0.95 0.27


12.3 percent of men and 16.2 percent of women have a 1 to 3 year college diploma. The incidence

of poverty is much higher among those with a 1 to 3 year college diploma than those with a 3

months to 1 year college diploma. About 18.5 percent of men and 12.3 percent of women with a

bachelor’s degree or higher are also among the low income transfer payment recipients. Overall,

about 46.1 percent of low income men and 43.0 percent of low income women receiving

government assistance have a post-secondary diploma or degree. From this group, about 34.7

percent of men and 24.6 percent of women have their post-secondary credentials from outside

Canada.

Table 3.22 shows the major field of study for the low income population in the sample who have

a post-secondary education as well as those with credentials obtained from Canada or elsewhere.

Table 3.22: Low Income Persons by Major Field of Study

Major Field of Study

Inside Canada

(%)

Outside Canada

(%)

Education 2.8 5.4

Visual and performing arts, and communications technologies 5.8 2.2

Humanities 5.0 6.4

Social and behavioural sciences and law 11.3 11.0

Business, management and public administration 21.6 22.0

Physical and life sciences and technologies 2.8 5.7

Mathematics, computer and information sciences 5.2 5.7

Architecture, engineering, and related technologies 19.2 23.3

Agriculture, natural resources and conservation 1.7 1.8

Health and related fields 15.4 13.2

73

Personal, protective and transportation services 9.3 3.4

Total 100.0 100.0

Table 3.22 shows that the majority of the low income transfer recipients have a degree in either

business, management and public administration or architecture, engineering, and related

technologies followed by those in health and related fields and social and behavioural sciences and

law. There does not appear to be a significant difference between the share of those who obtained

their credentials from Canada or elsewhere.

Table 3.23 shows the marital status of persons in the sample in 2011.

Table 3.23: Marital Status of Transfer Payment Recipients


Never legally married (and not living common law) 36.2 36.9

Legally married (and not separated) 34.6 13.6

Living common law 6.6 2.9

Separated (and not living common law) 6.7 15.4

Divorced (and not living common law) 14.0 23.0

Widowed (and not living common law) 2.0 8.2

About 36.2 percent of low income men and 36.9 percent of low income women are never married

singles. The incidence of poverty is lower among separated, divorced and widowed men compared

to women. Also, the data shows that about 4.5 percent of low income men are lone-parents

compared to 38.2 percent of low income women.

Table 3.24 shows the percentage of low-income census families with children by age of the

children in 2011.

Table 3.24: Presence of Children in Census Families

Age of Children Percentage of Census Family

0 to 1 10.1

2 to 5 21.5

6 to 14 39.6

15 to 24 34.0

25 and over 10.2

Note that the sum of the percentages in Table 3.24 does not add up to 100 since some families

have children of different ages and are counted more than once. The majority or 39.6 percent of

the families have children aged 6 to 14 followed by those with children aged 15 to 24.

Table 3.25 shows the year or period in which persons in the sample last worked for pay or in self-

employment, even if only for a few days.

74

Table 3.25: When Last Worked







worked. On the other hand, 59.8 percent of men and 62.3 percent of women worked before 2010.

The rest worked in 2010 and 2011. Examination of the data shows that about 36.7 percent of those

who never worked do not have a high school diploma while 28.4 percent of them have a high

school diploma as their highest level of educational achievement. They are approximately evenly

distributed among various age groups. For example, 22.9 percent are between the ages of 25 to 34

and 35 to 44; 31.9 percent are aged 45 to 54 and 22.3 percent are aged 55 to 64.

75

PART IV: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THE

FRANCOPHONE POPULATION IN ONTARIO

The Francophone population is defined as individuals whose mother tongue is French. The

Francophone population in Ontario increased from 482,340 in 2001 to 493,295 in 2011, a rise of

about 2.3 percent. However, their share of the total population declined from 4.3 percent in 2001

to 3.8 percent in 2011. In other words, the growth rate of the Francophone population was smaller

than that of the overall population in Ontario.

Table 4.1 shows the age distribution of the Francophone population in Ontario during 2001-2011.

Table 4.1: Age Distribution of Francophone Population in Ontario

Age Category 2001 2011

Percentage

Change

0 to 14 years 64,515 58,430 - 9.43

15 to 24 years 51,570 50,065 - 2.92

24 to 44 years 152,905 119,610 - 21.77

45 to 64 years 143,320 172,865 20.61

65 to 74 years 43,300 53,975 24.65

75 years and over 26,730 38,350 43.47

Total 482,340 493,295 2.27

0 to 44 268,990 228,105 -15.20

45 to 64 143,320 172,865 20.61

65 and over 70,030 92,325 31.84

Average Age 40.9 43.9 7.33

Median Age 42.0 47.0 11.90

We note that there is a discrepancy between the Francophone population reported by the 2011

Census and the one based on the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS). According to the NHS,

the total Francophone population in Ontario equaled 473,325 in 2011. However, the 2011 Census

reports a total Francophone population of 493,295 in Ontario in 2011.35

It appears that the Francophone population is aging rapidly in Ontario. Overall, the average age of

the Francophone population increased from 40.9 in 2001 to 43.9 in 2011. The median age increased

from 42 years in 2001 to 47 years in 2011. The Francophone population is older than the total

provincial population. The average age of Ontarians is 38.9 years compared to 43.9 years for the

Francophone population. Similarly, the median age of Ontarians is 40 years compared to 47 years

for the Francophone population. The median age is the age that divides a population into two equal

groups with 50 percent of the people being younger than this age and 50 percent being older. In

35 Two factors explain the differences between the 2011 NHS estimates and Census counts. First is the definition of the population of each data source. The target population for the 2011 Census includes usual residents in collective dwellings such as hospitals, nursing homes, prisons or correctional centres as well as persons living abroad, whereas the target population for the NHS excludes them. The second factor relates to the higher non-response error in NHS data due to the survey’s voluntary nature.

76

other words, the median age is the age of a person who separates the higher half of the population

from the lower half.

Figure 4.1 shows the geographical distribution of the Francophone population in Ontario in 2011.

The majority or 79.9 percent of the Francophone people live in urban areas. About 19.9 percent

live in rural areas with a weak to strong link with urban centres. Only 0.3 percent live in remote

rural communities.

In what follows we examine various labour market indicators of Ontario’s Francophone population

and pay special attention to the degree of rurality. We examine whether the average labour force


rural areas.

Labour Force Participation Rate of Francophone Population by Age and Geography

Table 4.2 and Figure 4.2 show the participation rate of the Francophone population in urban and

rural Ontario by age and geography in 2011. The participation rate is highest in rural areas with a

strong link to urban centres followed by CMAs. The participation rate is much lower in CAs and

rural areas designated as having moderate or weak link to urban centres.

Table 4.2: Labour Force Participation Rate of Francophone Population in Ontario

Age Category Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 63.0 65.5 57.2 56.1 66.3 52.3 58.1 63.4

15 to 64 years 76.6 78.0 74.0 73.1 78.9 68.2 73.2 71.0

15 to 24 years 66.3 65.1 73.8 70.3 69.7 61.5 70.6 27.3

25 to 34 years 89.7 89.9 84.6 87.3 93.0 87.4 92.2 70.6

35 to 44 years 89.5 89.9 87.3 87.2 93.1 86.0 86.9 83.3

45 to 54 years 84.0 85.0 84.0 81.8 87.6 76.5 78.6 80.0

55 to 64 years 55.1 57.9 49.3 50.3 54.7 44.9 52.2 70.3

65 years & over 11.4 12.3 8.1 8.9 14.7 8.5 9.9 -

100.0

79.9

9.1 6.3 4.5 0.3 -

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Ontario Urban Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ

Figure 4.1: Francophone Population in Ontario (%)

77

The participation rate in remote rural areas is relatively high especially among those aged 55 to 64

years. The majority or 41.7 percent of the employed Francophones in remote rural areas work in

mining and forestry followed by healthcare and social assistance (9.0%), accommodation (8.2%),

education (6.0%), retail (6.0%) and transportation industries (3.0%).

Tables 4.3 and 4.4 and Figure 4.3 show the labour force participation rate among Francophone

men and women in Ontario by age and geography. The participation rate for men ranges from a

low of 57.0 percent in rural areas with moderate link to urban centres to a high of 70.4 percent in

CMAs. For women, it ranges from a low of 47.9 percent in rural areas with a moderate link to

urban centres to a high of 63.6 percent in rural regions with a strong link to urban centres.

The participation rate is generally very high among the prime working age population.

Francophone men have a higher participation rate than Francophone women. Overall, the gap

between the participation rate of men and women equals 8.4 percent. The participation gap ranges

from a high of 9.1 percent in rural areas with a moderate link to urban centres to a low of 5.4

percent in rural regions with a strong link to urban centres.


Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 67.5 70.4 61.7 60.2 69.0 57.0 62.6 68.2

15 to 64 years 79.9 81.2 78.4 76.5 81.6 71.9 77.0 76.3

15 to 24 years 66.9 65.7 76.9 72.6 66.7 65.6 70.9 21.4

25 to 34 years 93.0 92.6 96.5 91.2 95.3 93.9 97.8 90.9

35 to 44 years 92.6 93.4 87.0 89.0 94.7 88.0 91.6 95.5

45 to 54 years 86.9 87.8 88.7 84.3 89.8 79.8 83.4 76.9

55 to 64 years 60.3 63.2 55.5 54.0 62.8 49.8 55.6 87.0

65 years & over 16.0 17.3 9.8 13.0 19.3 14.2 13.2 -

63.0 65.5

57.2 56.1

66.3

52.3

58.1

63.4

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Total CMA CA (tracted) CA (untracted) Strong Moderate Weak No Influence

Figure 4.2: Participation Rate by Geography(Population 15 years and over)

78


Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 59.1 61.4 53.2 52.5 63.6 47.9 53.8 59.5

15 to 64 years 73.7 75.2 69.7 70.1 76.1 64.5 69.6 65.4

15 to 24 years 65.7 64.5 71.6 67.8 72.9 57.8 70.7 37.5

25 to 34 years 86.8 87.7 76.1 84.2 90.3 81.0 86.7 60.9

35 to 44 years 86.8 86.8 87.7 85.4 91.6 84.2 83.2 78.9

45 to 54 years 81.2 82.3 79.8 79.1 85.4 73.3 73.7 80.0

55 to 64 years 50.5 53.5 43.7 47.3 46.7 40.2 48.6 38.5

65 years & over 7.8 8.8 7.0 5.5 9.7 3.4 7.1 -


Table 4.5 shows the average employment rate among the Francophone population in Ontario by

age and geography in 2011. The employment rate varies from a low of 48.6 percent in rural areas

with a moderate link to urban centres to a high of 62.7 percent in rural areas with a strong link to

urban centres. Those in rural areas with a strong link to urban centres are likely the ex-urbanites

who relocated to the countryside. As was the case for the participation rate, the employment rate

is highest among the prime working-age men (25 to 54). It is lowest but has been rising among

those aged 65 and over. Compared to the total provincial population, the employment rate among

the population aged 15 to 64 equals 71.9 percent among the Francophones compared to the

provincial average of 69.6 percent. The average employment rate for the prime working-age

Francophones equals 83.6 percent compared to 79.8 percent for the total population in Ontario.

67.5 70.4

61.7 60.2

69.0

57.0 62.6

68.2

59.1 61.4

53.2 52.5

63.6

47.9 53.8

59.5

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0




Men Women

79


Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA


No

Influence

15 years & over 59.1 61.7 53.0 52.0 62.7 48.6 53.6 58.6

15 to 64 years 71.9 73.5 68.4 67.7 74.6 63.5 67.8 66.0

15 to 24 years 55.7 54.7 55.4 59.1 60.7 53.1 59.3 22.7

25 to 34 years 84.7 85.3 81.1 80.0 89.3 78.5 86.9 61.8

35 to 44 years 85.8 86.2 81.5 82.8 90.4 83.6 82.8 81.0

45 to 54 years 80.3 81.7 80.9 76.7 84.1 72.6 73.6 72.3

55 to 64 years 52.1 55.2 46.0 47.8 50.7 41.3 48.5 67.6

65 years & over 10.5 11.4 7.7 8.4 14.0 7.5 8.2 -

Tables 4.6 and 4.7 and Figure 4.4 show the employment rates for Francophone men and women

in Ontario by age and geography in 2011. The employment rate for men ranged from a low of 52.0

percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres to 65.9 percent in CMAs. For women, it

varied from a low of 45.3 percent in rural regions with a weak link to urban centres to 60.2 percent

in rural areas with a strong link to urban centres. The employment rate is highest among the prime

working-age persons and lowest for those aged 65 and over.


Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 62.9 65.9 56.4 55.4 65.2 52.1 56.0 62.7

15 to 64 years 74.4 76.1 71.9 70.3 77.1 66.0 69.1 71.1

15 to 24 years 55.8 54.5 58.5 60.0 58.2 56.1 61.9 14.3

25 to 34 years 87.6 87.6 93.0 83.8 92.6 83.2 88.8 90.9

35 to 44 years 88.3 89.5 78.1 83.8 91.5 84.3 84.1 86.4

45 to 54 years 82.6 84.1 84.6 79.1 85.2 74.9 74.9 65.4

55 to 64 years 56.4 59.7 50.9 50.1 58.9 44.9 49.3 82.6

65 years & over 14.8 16.1 8.9 12.2 18.5 12.4 10.8 -


Age Group

Tota

l CMA

CA

(tracted

)

CA

(untracted

)

Strong

MIZ

Moderat

e

MIZ

Wea

k

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 55.8 58.1 49.7 49.0 60.2 45.3 51.2 55.2

15 to 64 years 69.6 71.2 65.1 65.4 72.1 61.1 66.5 61.5

15 to 24 years 55.7 54.9 52.5 58.1 63.2 50.0 56.5 37.5

25 to 34 years 82.2 83.4 71.7 76.9 85.7 74.3 84.9 47.8

35 to 44 years 83.6 83.2 85.0 81.9 89.3 83.0 81.7 78.9

45 to 54 years 78.2 79.4 77.3 74.3 83.0 70.3 72.2 75.0

55 to 64 years 48.4 51.4 41.3 45.9 42.6 37.8 47.6 38.5

65 years & over 7.2 8.1 6.7 5.3 9.0 3.3 6.0 -

80

The employment rate among Francophone men aged 15 to 64 equaled 74.4 percent compared to

the provincial average of 72.9 percent. Similarly, the employment rate for Francophone women in

the same age group equaled 69.6 percent compared to the average of 66.5 percent.

Figure 4.4 shows that the employment rate is greater among men irrespective of the region of

residence. The employment gap ranges from a low of 5.0 percent in rural areas with a strong link

to urban centres to a high of 7.6 percent in remote regions.

Unemployment Rate by Age and Geography

Table 4.8 shows the unemployment rate among the Francophone population in Ontario by age and

geography in 2011. The rate is lowest in rural areas with a strong link to urban centres (5.4%). As

mentioned above, this is likely due to relocation of employed ex-urbanites to the countryside. The

unemployment rate is highest in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres (7.8%). The

unemployment rate is lowest among the prime working-age group. Those aged 15 to 24 register

the highest unemployment rate among all age groups in all regions.


(Francophone Population)

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 6.2 5.9 7.5 7.3 5.4 7.0 7.8 6.9

15 to 64 years 6.1 5.9 7.6 7.4 5.4 6.9 7.4 7.0

15 to 24 years 15.9 16.0 25.0 15.8 13.0 13.8 15.7 -

25 to 34 years 5.6 5.1 4.2 8.4 3.9 9.9 5.7 8.3

35 to 44 years 4.1 4.1 6.6 4.9 2.9 2.9 4.7 -

62.9 65.9

56.4 55.4

65.2

52.1 56.0

62.7

55.8 58.1

49.7 49.0

60.2

45.3

51.2 55.2

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


Figure 4.4: Average Employment Rate for Francophone Population (%)

Men Women

81

45 to 54 years 4.4 3.9 3.7 6.2 3.9 5.1 6.4 7.7

55 to 64 years 5.4 4.7 7.0 5.0 7.3 8.0 7.1 -

65 years & over 7.3 7.3 3.4 5.3 5.5 10.6 15.9 -

Compared to the provincial average, the unemployment rate among the Francophone population

aged 15 years and over equaled 6.2 percent compared to 8.3 percent in the province in 2011. In

general, the unemployment rate among the Francophone population is lower than the provincial

average. The only exception is the rate among those aged 65 and over.

Tables 4.9 and 4.10 and Figure 4.5 show the unemployment rate among Francophone men and

women by age and geography in Ontario in 2011. The unemployment rate is lowest for men living

in rural areas with a strong link to urban centers and highest for those residing in rural regions with

a weak link to urban centres. For women, the unemployment rate varies from a low of 4.8 percent

in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres to a high of 7.2 percent in remote regions.

The unemployment rate is lowest for persons aged 35 to 64 and highest for those aged 15 to 24.

The overall unemployment rate equaled 6.8 percent for men and 5.6 percent for women in 2011.

Table 4.9: Unemployment Rate for Francophone Men by Age by Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted

)

CA

(untracted

)

Stron

g

MIZ

Moderat

e

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 6.8 6.3 8.4 8.0 5.5 8.5 10.5 6.7

15 to 64 years 6.8 6.3 8.5 8.2 5.5 8.3 10.2 6.8

15 to 24 years 16.6 17.1 24.0 17.6 13.1 14.0 13.3 -

25 to 34 years 5.8 5.5 4.5 8.1 2.8 11.4 8.6 -

35 to 44 years 4.6 4.2 9.6 5.9 3.5 4.2 8.2 -

45 to 54 years 5.0 4.3 4.6 6.2 5.0 6.1 9.8 -

55 to 64 years 6.5 5.5 7.6 7.2 6.4 9.8 11.3 -

65 years & over 7.4 7.1 - 6.0 4.7 12.4 16.7 -

Table 4.10: Unemployment Rate for Francophone Women by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total

CM

A

CA

(tracted

)

CA

(untracted

)

Stron

g

MIZ

Moderat

e

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 5.6 5.5 6.5 6.6 5.3 5.3 4.8 7.2

15 to 64 years 5.5 5.4 6.7 6.6 5.3 5.3 4.5 5.9

15 to 24 years 15.1 14.9 25.7 14.6 12.9 13.5 19.3 -

25 to 34 years 5.3 4.9 4.8 8.6 5.1 8.3 2.1 -

35 to 44 years 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.2 2.5 1.7 2.2 -

45 to 54 years 3.7 3.5 2.7 6.0 2.6 4.0 2.4 -

55 to 64 years 4.2 3.9 5.5 3.0 8.5 5.5 2.0 -

65 years & over 7.2 7.5 - 5.3 - - 14.7 -

82

The unemployment rate has been higher for men in all regions except for the remote rural areas

where the rate is slightly higher for women. The unemployment gap between men and women is

largest (5.7%) in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres followed by those with a moderate

link (3.2%) to urban centres.

Labour Market Indicators by Highest Level of Educational Attainment for Francophone

Population

Table 4.11 shows the percentage distribution of Francophones aged 15 years and over in Ontario

by highest level of education and geography in 2011.

Table 4.11: Francophone Population with Highest Level of Educational Achievement

Highest Level of Education Ontario CMA

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ



certificate 24.6 23.9 28.6 23.8 22.1 33.5

Apprenticeship or trades certificate or

diploma 10.1 8.4 12.7 13.1 14.5 10.1

College, CEGEP or other non-

university certificate or diploma 20.9 21.2 20.2 20.7 19.9 13.7

University certificate or diploma below

bachelor level 3.6 4.1 3.2 2.5 2.8 2.2

Total University certificate, diploma or

degree at bachelor level or above 20.0 25.5 11.9 9.3 7.9 5.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

6.8 6.3

8.4 8.0

5.5

8.5

10.5

6.7

5.6 5.5

6.5 6.6

5.3 5.3 4.8

7.2

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0


Figure 4.5: Unemployment Rate Among Francophones (%)

Men Women

83

The level of educational attainment declines as the degree of rurality increases. An average of 20.0

percent of the population aged 15 and over have university credentials compared to only 5.3

percent of those in remote rural regions. The share of individuals with a university degree in rural

areas with a strong link to urban centres is 11.9 percent compared to 25.5 percent in urban centres.

The percentage of persons without a high school diploma rises as the degree of rurality increases.

Table 4.12 shows the participation rate among Francophone population by highest level of

educational achievement and degree of rurality.

Table 4.12: Participation Rate by Highest Level of Educational Achievement


Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ








In general, the labour force participation rate rises as the level of educational achievement

increases. It equals 32.8 percent for those without a high school degree to 78.6 percent for those

with a university degree. In urban areas, the participation rate is highest among those with a

university degree and lowest for those without a certificate or degree. The average participation

rate among the Francophones is very similar to the total provincial population. The exception is

that Francophones’ participation rate is higher in rural areas compared to the overall population.


rurality.

Table 4.13: Employment Rate by Highest Level of Educational Achievement


Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ








84

In general, irrespective of the degree of rurality, the employment rate rises as the level of

educational attainment increases. Persons with a university degree have the highest employment

rates in urban centres. Those with a college diploma have the highest employment rates in rural

areas with a strong link to urban centres. The employment rate for individuals with a trade

certificate is highest in remote rural regions. These are likely individuals who work in resource-

based industries. The same holds true for those with a high school diploma. Individuals without a

high school diploma have the lowest employment rates in all regions.


of rurality.

Table 4.14: Highest Level of Educational Achievement by Degree of Rurality


Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ








The unemployment rate is highest for persons without a high school diploma (10.9%) followed by

those with a high school diploma (7.9%). In general, the unemployment rate declines as the level

of educational attainment rises. It equals 3.7 percent for those with a university degree compared

to 10.9 percent for those without a high school diploma. Remote rural regions have higher

unemployment rates than urban centres. Compared to the provincial average, the unemployment

rate among the Francophone population is much lower than the overall provincial population

(Figure 4.6).

10.9

7.9 6.5

5.0 3.7

14.3

10.9

7.26.3 5.7

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

No certificate High schooldiploma

trades certificate College diploma University degree


Francophone Province

85


As stated above, economic family refers to a group of two or more persons who live in the same

dwelling and are related to each other by blood, marriage, common-law or adoption. Table 4.15

shows the percentage age distribution of Francophones in economic families in Ontario.

Table 4.15: Percentage Age Distribution of Francophone Families

Age Class

Couple Families

(%)

Lone-Parent Families

(%)

15 to 64 years 81.5 88.9

15 to 24 years 11.2 26.1

25 to 34 years 12.0 12.4

35 to 44 years 16.4 17.8

45 to 54 years 22.6 23.0

55 to 64 years 19.3 9.7



Number 293,110 33,430

The majority of 22.6 percent of the couple families are between the ages of 45 and 54 followed by

those aged 55 to 64 years (19.3%). On the other hand, the majority of the lone-parent families

(26.1%) are between the ages of 15 to 24 years followed by those between the ages of 45 and 54

(23.0%). About 51.0 percent of the couple families and 53.2 percent of the lone-parent families

are in their prime working-age group.

Figure 4.7 shows the participation rate by economic family structure and age class for Francophone

individuals in economic families in Ontario.

In general, the participation rate among lone-parents is lower than the overall rate as well as the

rate for couple families in all age groups. The only exception seems to be among those aged 55 to

64 where lone parents have a significantly higher participation rate than the average. About 35.1

percent of the lone-parent families between the ages of 15 to 64 are headed by men and 64.9

66 78

66

91 91 86

55

13

63 77

66

90 90 84

55

11

65 71

56

75 83 82

64

9

-

20

40

60

80

100

15 years andover


Figure 4.7: Participation Rate by Family Structure & Age Group (%)

Couple Family Total Lone-Parent Family

86

percent are headed by women. The participation rate among lone-parent men equals 67.7 percent

compared to 63.0 percent for women.

Figure 4.8 shows the participation rate by family structure and degree of rurality. The participation

rate among lone-parent familes is lower in urban areas and higher in rural areas with some link to

urban centres. The lone-parent’s participation rate is much lower in remote rural regions.

Figure 4.9 shows the employment rate among Francophone families by age group in Ontario. In

general, the employment rate among couple families is higher than that for the lone-parent families

except for those aged 55 to 64 years. The employment rate among lone-parent men age 15 years

and over equals 58.8 percent compared to 57.5 percent for women. The employment gap reaches

as high as 21.6 percent for those aged 25 to 34 followed by those aged 15 to 24 (12.7%) and 35 to

44 years (9.6%).

Figure 4.10 shows the employment rate among Francophone individuals aged 15 and over by

degree of rurality. In general, the Lone-parent families have a lower employment rate than the

65.9 68.2 67.8

56.5 62.4

65.5 64.6 64.4

72.4

62.7 64.8

33.3

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


Figure 4.8: Participation Rate by Degree of Rurality

Couple Family Lone-Parent Family

62.2 73.6

56.3

86.1 88.1 83.0

52.5

12.0

57.9 64.1

43.6

64.5

78.5 77.3

60.5

8.8

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 +years

Figure 4.9: Employment Rate by Age Group (%)


87

couple families in all regions except for the rural areas with a moderate link to urban centres. The

employment gap is largest in remote rural regions (32.2%) followed by CMAs (6.6%).

Figure 4.11 shows the unemployment rate among Francophone couples and lone-parents by age.

The unemployment rate is higher among the lone-parent persons in all age groups except for those

aged 65 and over. The unemployment gap is largest among those aged 25 to 34 (8.2%) followed

by those aged 15 to 24 (6.3%). Overall, the gap equals 4.8 percent for individuals aged 15 to 64

years. The data show that the unemployment rate among lone-parent men equals 13.1 percent

compared to 8.7 percent for women.

Figure 4.12 shows the unemployment rate by family structure and geography. The unemployment

rate is higher among the lone-parent families irrespective of geography. The unemployment gap

62.2 64.6 64.5

52.7

58.0

65.5

57.9 58.0 64.4

57.7 55.5

33.3

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


Figure 4.10: Employment Rate by Degree of Rurality (%)


5.6 5.5

15.2

5.0 3.5 3.8

5.1

7.8

10.3 10.3

21.6

13.3

5.9 5.4 5.1 5.8

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

15 yearsand over


Figure 4.11: Unemployment by Family structure and Age (%)


88

varies from a low of 1.3 percent in rural areas with a moderate link to urban centres to a high of

7.2 percent in remote rural areas. On average, the unemploymet gap equals 4.7 percent.


About 23.8 percent of Francophones in Ontario reported having difficulty with daily activity

and/or having activity limitations. Table 4.16 shows their age distribution and their share of the

total Francophone population in the province. The number of individuals reporting activity

limitation rises with age. Only 8.5 percent of individuals aged 15 to 24 reported having activity

limitations compared to 50.7 percent of individuals aged 65 and over. About 57.7 percent of

Francophones who reported having activity limitations are between the ages of 15 and 64. About

32.0 percent of them are in their prime working-age.


Age Category. Francophones

No. of

Persons

Percentage of Total

Francophone Population

Under 15 years 3,690 6.4


15 to 64 years 64,910 19.7

15 to 24 years 4,060 8.5

25 to 34 years 5,305 10.3

35 to 44 years 9,105 14.4

45 to 54 years 21,585 24.1

55 to 64 years 24,850 32.5


Total 112,555 23.8

5.6 5.2 5.0

6.7 7.0

10.3 10.0 11.1

8.0

14.3

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Total CMA Strong Moderate Weak

Figure 4.12: Unemployment by Family Structure and Degree of Rurality (%)


89


benchmark, we have included information on Francophones who reported no difficulty at home or

work. Individuals who reported difficulty at home and in other activities have the lowest

participation rates followed by those who reported having difficulty at home only. On average, the

participation rate among persons aged 15 and over who reported having difficulty with daily


a disability.

Table 4.17: Participation Rate of Francophones with Activity Limitations

No

Difficulty



Limited at

Home Only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 72.9 36.4 22.8 11.7

15 to 64 years 81.8 56.1 42.8 22.7

15 to 24 years 67.2 56.7 73.7 17.2

25 to 34 years 91.6 73.2 55.0 46.3

35 to 44 years 92.6 71.3 68.5 33.4

45 to 54 years 90.5 63.5 46.5 28.2

55 to 64 years 62.2 40.3 30.6 15.1

65 years & over 15.6 7.4 5.2 3.0


persons with disabilities is much lower than that for persons without a disability. On average, the



a disability. Persons reported limited at home and in other activities have very low employment

rates followed by those reported being only limited at home.


Age Group

No

Difficulty



Limited at

Home Only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 68.7 33.3 19.3 10.5

15 to 64 years 77.1 51.4 36.2 20.4

15 to 24 years 56.9 44.7 50.0 17.2

25 to 34 years 86.9 66.2 51.7 41.5

35 to 44 years 89.2 65.7 57.5 30.3

45 to 54 years 87.1 59.3 38.1 26.2

55 to 64 years 59.3 37.3 27.2 13.1

65 years & over 14.7 6.6 4.3 2.6


limitation. Individuals who are limited at home have the highest unemployment rates in almost all

age groups. One reason for a relatively low unemployment rate reported for those who are limited

at home and in other activities is that their labour force participation is extremely low resulting in

low unemployment rates. Overall, the unemployment rate among persons aged 15 and over who

90

reported having difficulty with daily activity and/or activity limitations equaled 8.5 percent

compared to 5.8 percent for those without a disability.


Age Group

No

Difficulty



Limited at

Home Only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 5.8 8.5 15.5 10.4

15 to 64 years 5.8 8.3 15.1 9.9

15 to 24 years 15.4 21.1 35.7 -

25 to 34 years 5.2 9.7 - 10.3

35 to 44 years 3.7 7.8 15.0 10.2

45 to 54 years 3.8 6.5 18.6 6.8

55 to 64 years 4.7 7.5 10.7 12.6

65 years & over 5.8 10.2 18.6 13.2

Socio-Economic Profile of Francophones Receiving Social Assistance

The sample used in this section includes Francophone social assistance recipients between the ages

of 25 and 64 who were not employed, were members of low-income families and received more

than $1000 in transfer payments in 2010.

Table 4.20 shows the percentage age distribution of individuals in the sample.


Age Group Men Women

25 to 29 years 5.6 7.7

30 to 34 years 2.5 9.3

35 to 39 years 7.5 8.2

40 to 44 years 8.1 9.9

45 to 49 years 16.8 11.0

50 to 54 years 18.6 15.4

55 to 59 years 23.6 13.7

60 to 64 years 17.4 24.7

Total 100.0 100.0

About 59.0 percent of male low income transfer payment recipients are in their prime working-

age (25-54) group. Similarly, 61.5 percent of Francophone women are in their prime working-age

group. The rest or 40.0 percent of men and women are between the ages of 55 and 64.


91







College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (3 months to less than 1 year) 1.9 2.2

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (1 to 2 years) 8.7 10.4

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (more than 2 years) 4.4 7.1


Bachelor’s degree 5.6 4.4


Degree in medicine, dentistry, veterinary medicine or optometry 0.6 -

Master’s degree 2.5 1.1

Total 100.0 100.0


13.1 percent of men and 17.6 percent of women have a 1 to 3 year college diploma. As was the

case for the total population, the incidence of poverty is much higher among persons with a 1 to 3

year college diploma than those with a 3 months to 1 year college diploma. About 9.9 percent of

men and 6.6 percent of women with a bachelor’s degree or higher are also among the transfer

payment recipients. Overall, about 42.9 percent of low income men and 36.8 percent of low income

women receiving transfer payments have a post-secondary diploma or degree.

Table 4.22 shows the marital status of persons in the sample.


Men Women







About 44.1 percent of men and 35.2 percent of women are never married singles. The incidence

of poverty is lower among divorced men (18.0%) compared to women (26.4%). Also, the data

shows that about 1.9 percent of low income men are lone-parents compared to 26.9 percent of

women.



92








worked. On the other hand, 68.9 percent of low income men and 67.0 percent of low income

women worked before 2010. The rest worked in 2010 and 2011. About 45.7 percent of those who

never worked do not have a high school diploma while 37.1 percent of them have a high school

diploma. About 2.9 percent have a registered apprenticeship certificate, 11.4 percent have a college

diploma and 2.9 percent have a bachelor’s degree.

93

PART V: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THE

ABORIGINAL POPULATION IN ONTARIO

Aboriginal population is defined by Statistics Canada as persons who reported identifying with at

least one Aboriginal group, that is, North American Indian, Metis or Inuit, and/or those who

reported being a Treaty Indian or a registered Indian, as defined by the Indian Act of Canada,

and/or those who reported they were members of an Indian band or First Nation.

Table 5.1 shows the age distribution of the on- and off-reserve Aboriginal population in Ontario

during 2001-2011. It shows that the on-reserve population has declined slightly during 2001-2011.

This is primarily due to the migration of Aboriginal individuals from reserves to off-reserve areas.

During the same period, the off-reserve Aboriginal population increased by 72.2 percent. Overall,

the total Aboriginal population increased from 184,555 in 2001 to 290,795 in 2011, a growth rate

of about 57.6 percent. There are various factors explaining the significant growth of the Aboriginal

population in Ontario. One reason for significant growth of the off-reserve Aboriginal people in

Ontario is the outmigration of people from reserves to off-reserve areas.

Table 5.1: Aboriginal Population in Ontario

Age Groups 2001 2011

On-Reserve Off-Reserve On-Reserve Off-Reserve

0 to 14 years 12,770 41,720 10,785 60,675

15 to 24 years 6,005 24,070 6,480 43,070

25 to 34 years 5,325 22,795 4,630 34,610

35 to 44 years 5,400 25,830 4,835 34,835

45 to 54 years 3,395 17,150 5,030 38,550

55 to 64 years 2,255 9,415 3,275 25,005

65 to 74 years 1,485 4,295 1,675 11,665

75 years & over 775 1,870 685 4,990

Total 37,410 147,145 37,395 253,400

Average Age 27.8 29.2 30.4 32.5

Median Age 24.9 28.6 28 31.5

Secondly, the high Aboriginal population growth is not solely due to natural demographic

processes. According to Statistics Canada, the traditional demographic components of growth

(fertility, mortality and migration) are not the only factors that have affected the growth of the

Aboriginal population in Canada. Another phenomenon that has also affected the size, growth and

composition of the Aboriginal population in recent years is referred to as a “change in reporting”

or “ethnic mobility.” Ethnic mobility refers to people changing, from one census to the next, the

reporting of their Aboriginal affiliations from a non-Aboriginal identity to an Aboriginal identity.36

The passage of Bill C31 in 1986 has been a factor in this ethnic mobility.

36 Siggner A. and Rosalinda Costa, “Aboriginal Conditions in Census Metropolitan Areas, 1981-2001”, Statistics

Canada, 2005.

94

According to Statistics Canada, “The Aboriginal population has grown faster than the non-

Aboriginal population. Between 1996 and 2006 it increased 45 percent (4.5 percent per year),

nearly six times faster than the 8 percent (0.8 percent per year) rate of increase for the non-

Aboriginal population.”37

In addition to the above factors, there has been a higher participation in the census in recent years.

Statistics Canada reports that some Indian reserves and settlements did not participate in the census

as enumeration was not permitted or it was interrupted before completion. In 2006, there were 22

incompletely enumerated reserves, down from 30 in 2001 and 77 in 1996.38 Other factors

explaining higher Aboriginal population growth include better and more accessible health care

leading to a lower mortality rate and decline in infant mortality.

Finally, one of the main factors explaining the rising share of the Aboriginal population relates to

their fertility rate. The fertility rate among Aboriginal women has been significantly higher than

the regional average. A report by the Ontario Ministry of Health states that: “Fertility is almost

exclusively the source of population growth for Aboriginal peoples in Ontario. Provincially, some

in-migration of Aboriginal people takes place from other provinces but does not substantially

impact population dynamics among Ontario’s Aboriginal peoples although the impact may be

greater in some urban areas. Although minimum information is directly available on Aboriginal

fertility in Canada, INAC has reported a total fertility rate (TFR), which is the number of children

a woman would have under current prevailing fertility rates, of 2.9 children in 2000 for Registered

Indian women. In the same year, the TFR for Canadian women was approximately half that rate

at 1.5 children.”39

Higher fertility rates along with other factors discussed above have resulted in significant growth

of the Aboriginal population in Ontario (Table 5.1).

Table 5.1 also shows that like the overall population in Ontario, the Aboriginal population is aging.

The average age of the on-reserve and off-reserve Aboriginal population increased from 27.8 and

29.2 percent in 2001 to 30.4 and 32.5 percent in 2011 respectively. Similarly, the median age of

the on- and off-reserve Aboriginal population increased from 24.9 and 28.6 percent in 2001 to 28.0

and 31.5 percent in 2011 respectively.

Figure 5.1 shows the geographical distribution of the Aboriginal population in Ontario calculated

based on the 2011National Household Survey.

37 Statistics Canada, “Aboriginal peoples in Canada in 2006: Inuit, Metis and First Nations, 2006 Census”. 38 Ibid. 39 Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Health Analytic Branch, “First Nations Peoples in Ontario: A

Demographic Portrait”, January 2009, page 15.

95

About 70.2 percent of the Aboriginal population live in urban areas. The other 29.8 percent live in

rural areas. About 10.6 percent live in relatively remote rural areas with a weak link to population

centres. Another 3.6 percent live in remote regions with no link to urban centres.

Figure 5.2 shows the distribution of the on- and off-reserve Aboriginal population in Ontario in

2011.

The majority (78.3%) of the off-reserve Aboriginal population live in urban areas. About 15.6

percent of the Aboriginal people live in urban reserves. The majority or 65.9 percent of the reserve

population live in relatively remote rural areas with a weak or no link to urban centres. These are

areas with potentially significant mineral resources development requiring a skilled labour force

and developed infrastructure which are both absent at the present time. However, the presence of

resources in relatively remote areas offer an opportunity for sustainable employment of Aboriginal

people in those areas.40

40 The Musselwhite agreement that the author negotiated in Northwestern Ontario is an excellent example of partnership and employment creation between Aboriginal communities and resource developers and should serve as a model for future such partnerships.

100.0

70.2

6.1 9.6 10.6 3.6

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0


Figure 5.1: Aboriginal Population by Degree of Rurality (%)

78.3

6.3 9.0 6.3 0.2

15.6 4.6

13.9

39.3 26.6

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Urban Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ

Figure 5.2: Aboriginal Population in Ontario (%)

Off-Reserve On-Reserve

96

In what follows we examine various labour market indicators of Ontario’s Aboriginal population

and pay special attention to the degree of rurality. We examine whether the average labour force


rural areas.


Table 5.2 shows the participation rate among the Aboriginal Population in Ontario by age and

degree of rurality. In general, the participation rate declines as the degree of rurality rises (Figure

5.3). It ranges from a high of 64.8 percent in CMAs to a low of 51.5 percent in remote rural regions.

The average participation rate among the Aboriginal population equals 61.9 percent compared to

the provincial average of 65.5 percent. The participation rate among persons aged 15 to 64 equals

66.6 percent compared to the provincial average of 76.0 percent.

Table 5.2: Participation Rate by Age and Geography

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 61.9 64.8 60.3 62.4 62.1 54.9 58.6 51.5

15 to 64 years 66.6 69.1 64.4 68.1 67.2 60.8 63.1 56.0

15 to 24 years 52.7 55.6 52.6 59.1 53.6 48.5 42.6 35.4

25 to 34 years 76.8 79.9 70.5 77.0 73.9 76.9 72.7 60.1

35 to 44 years 78.1 79.3 72.9 76.3 83.1 76.5 78.4 71.7

45 to 54 years 72.8 73.8 70.3 76.9 75.5 65.7 72.3 68.1

55 to 64 years 51.6 53.9 54.2 52.1 48.0 41.5 53.3 52.0

65 years & over 13.8 15.7 13.4 10.6 10.3 12.5 13.1 13.5

The labour force participation rate among the prime working age group (25-54 years) equals 75.9

percent compared to the provincial average of 85.3 percent.

Tables 5.3 and 5.4 show the participation rate among Aboriginal men and women by age and

degree of rurality. The participation rate among men ranges from 68.2 percent in CMAs to 55.6

percent in remote rural regions. On average, the participation rate among Aboriginal men equals

61.9 64.8

60.3 62.4 62.1

54.9 58.6

51.5

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Total CMA CA(tracted) CA(untracted) Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ

Figure 5.3: Participation Rate by Degree of Rurality (%)

97

65.1 percent compared to the provincial average of 69.9 percent. The average participation rate

among the Aboriginal men in their prime working-age equaled 80.3 percent compared to the

provincial average of 89.9 percent.

Table 5.3: Participation Rate of Aboriginal Men by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 65.1 68.2 64.6 66.2 63.9 58.2 60.8 55.6

15 to 64 years 69.4 72.0 68.8 71.5 68.2 64.5 64.8 59.2

15 to 24 years 53.7 57.4 47.8 56.8 50.4 51.5 45.1 39.4

25 to 34 years 82.0 83.7 81.9 86.2 77.3 85.5 77.4 63.8

35 to 44 years 81.9 83.6 78.4 79.6 87.7 81.2 79.3 73.1

45 to 54 years 77.0 78.1 77.7 81.4 78.5 72.1 72.6 73.0

55 to 64 years 53.9 56.2 59.9 59.2 46.2 42.2 56.2 52.8

65 years & over 16.4 19.5 14.6 11.8 14.8 12.0 16.0 17.6

Table 5.4: Participation Rate of Aboriginal Women by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 59.1 61.9 57.0 58.9 60.4 51.6 56.5 47.4

15 to 64 years 64.1 66.7 60.9 64.9 66.2 57.1 61.4 52.5

15 to 24 years 51.7 53.8 57.2 61.7 57.2 44.3 39.9 31.1

25 to 34 years 72.4 76.7 62.4 68.6 70.4 69.3 68.8 55.6

35 to 44 years 74.8 75.9 68.5 73.2 78.1 72.2 77.7 70.3

45 to 54 years 69.0 70.2 63.6 72.8 72.2 59.7 71.8 63.3

55 to 64 years 49.6 52.1 50.2 46.1 49.8 41.0 50.6 51.3

65 years & over 11.8 13.0 12.4 9.6 6.0 12.9 10.8 10.7

65.1 68.2

64.6 66.2 63.9 58.2 60.8

55.6 59.1 61.9 57.0 58.9 60.4

51.6 56.5

47.4

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0



Men Women

98

The participation rate among Aboriginal women ranges from a low of 47.4 percent in remote rural

regions to 61.9 percent in CMAs. On average the participation rate of Aboriginal women aged 15

years and over equals 59.1 percent compared to the provincial average of 61.4 percent. The

participation rate among Aboriginal women aged 15 to 64 equaled 64.1 percent compared to the

provincial average of 72.6 percent. Figure 5.4 shows that the participation rate has been higher

among Aboriginal men compared to women. The participation gap varies from a high of 8.2

percent in remote rural regions to 3.5 percent in rural areas with a strong link to urban centres.

Employment Rate of Aboriginal People by Age and Geography

Table 5.5 shows the employment rate of the Aboriginal population by age and geography. In

general, the employment rate declined as the degree of rurality rises. The employment rate for the

population aged 15 and over ranges from a low of 40.8 percent in remote rural regions to a high

of 56.2 percent in CMAs. Overall, the rate among those aged 15 to 64 equaled 57.3 percent

compared to the provincial average of 69.6 percent. In general, the employment rate for the

Aboriginal people is lower than the provincial average for all geographies and ages. The

employment gap between the Aboriginal and total population ranges from 1.5 percent in untracted

CAs to 10.3 percent in CMAs.

Table 5.5: Employment Rate by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 53.3 56.2 51.7 54.3 55.1 47.1 48.6 40.8

15 to 64 years 57.3 59.9 55.1 59.1 59.6 52.3 52.3 44.0

15 to 24 years 38.4 40.5 37.7 45.0 40.7 36.3 29.3 22.9

25 to 34 years 65.5 70.0 60.4 66.0 65.7 62.7 54.8 43.8

35 to 44 years 70.7 72.7 62.7 69.7 76.4 69.3 68.7 59.1

45 to 54 years 66.3 67.5 65.4 69.5 69.3 59.6 65.4 57.1

55 to 64 years 46.7 48.4 49.1 48.3 44.3 37.3 48.7 48.0

65 years & over 12.3 14.2 12.1 10.0 8.7 9.9 11.3 13.0

Tables 5.6 and 5.7 show the employment rates for Aboriginal men and women by age and

geography. The rate for men ranges from 42.9 percent in remote rural regions to 58.7 percent in

CMAs. For women, it ranges from 38.7 percent in remote rural areas to 54.3 percent in rural

regions with a strong link to urban centres. On average, the employment rate of Aboriginal men

aged 15 and older equaled 55.1 percent compared to the provincial average of 64.2 percent. For

women aged 15 years and over, the average employment rate equaled 51.7 percent compared to

the provincial average of 56.3 percent. Figure 5.5 shows that the employment rate among women

has been lower than that among men. The employment gap between Aboriginal men and women

ranges from 1.5 percent in rural areas with a strong link to urban centres to 4.7 percent in CMAs.

On average, the employment gap between men and women aged 15 and over equals 3.5 percent.

99

Table 5.6: Employment Rate of Aboriginal Men by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years &

over 55.1 58.7 53.9 56.2 55.8 48.8 48.4 42.9

15 to 64 years 58.7 61.9 57.5 60.7 59.7 54.1 51.7 45.3

15 to 24 years 38.2 40.6 33.1 42.4 37.1 38.1 30.5 26.6

25 to 34 years 68.9 73.7 64.9 70.8 67.5 67.6 55.5 44.7

35 to 44 years 73.0 76.6 65.3 70.5 78.6 71.7 66.2 58.4

45 to 54 years 69.9 71.5 73.6 74.3 71.8 64.6 64.2 57.7

55 to 64 years 48.0 50.2 52.6 53.6 42.8 36.0 48.8 50.0

65 years &

over 14.6 18.0 11.7 10.9 13.0 10.1 12.0 17.6

Table 5.7: Employment Rate of Aboriginal Women by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 51.7 54.1 50.0 52.5 54.3 45.4 48.7 38.7

15 to 64 years 56.1 58.2 53.3 57.7 59.5 50.5 52.8 42.7

15 to 24 years 38.7 40.4 42.1 48.2 44.7 34.2 28.3 18.5

25 to 34 years 62.7 66.9 56.7 61.6 64.2 57.7 54.1 43.3

35 to 44 years 68.7 69.6 60.6 68.7 74.2 67.1 70.7 60.0

45 to 54 years 63.1 64.2 57.9 65.5 67.1 54.6 66.8 55.9

55 to 64 years 45.6 47.0 46.9 43.5 44.9 38.6 48.7 46.2

65 years & over 10.6 11.6 12.4 9.2 6.0 10.0 10.4 10.7


55.1 58.7 53.9 56.2 55.8 48.8 48.4

42.9 51.7 54.1 50.0 52.5 54.3

45.4 48.7

38.7

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


Figure 5.5: Employment Rate among Aboriginals (%)

Men Women

100

Table 5.8 shows the unemployment rate of Aboriginal workers by age and degree of rurality. In

general, the unemployment rate rises as the degree of rurality increases. It ranges from a high of

20.8 percent in remote rural regions to a low of 13.1 percent in untracted CAs. The unemployment

rate among the Aboriginal workers is significantly higher than the provincial average in all age

groups and regions. For example, the overall rate for the Aboriginal workers aged 15 to 64 equaled

14.0 percent compared to the provincial average of 8.4 percent. The unemployment gap between

the Aboriginal workers and the total provincial average ranges from 4.4 percent in remote rural

regions to 8.7 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres. Overall, the unemployment

gap equals 5.6 percent for those aged 15 and over.

Table 5.8: Unemployment Rate Among Aboriginal Workers by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 13.9 13.2 14.3 13.1 11.4 14.3 17.1 20.8

15 to 64 years 14.0 13.3 14.4 13.2 11.2 14.0 17.1 21.3

15 to 24 years 27.1 27.1 28.3 23.7 24.0 25.1 31.0 35.3

25 to 34 years 14.7 12.4 14.4 14.4 11.0 18.5 24.7 26.7

35 to 44 years 9.5 8.3 13.7 8.6 7.7 9.4 12.6 17.6

45 to 54 years 8.9 8.5 7.0 9.5 8.0 9.5 9.6 16.1

55 to 64 years 9.4 10.2 9.4 7.3 8.0 10.2 8.5 7.6

65 years & over 10.7 9.2 - 5.9 12.0 22.4 13.5 -

Tables 5.9 and 5.10 show the unemployment rates among Aboriginal men and women by age and

degree of rurality.

Table 5.9: Unemployment Rate among Aboriginal Men by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 15.3 13.9 16.5 15.0 12.7 16.2 20.4 22.9

15 to 64 years 15.4 14.0 16.6 15.1 12.7 16.2 20.3 23.5

15 to 24 years 28.9 29.3 30.8 25.4 26.4 26.0 32.4 32.4

25 to 34 years 15.9 11.9 20.2 17.9 12.7 20.4 28.3 30.0

35 to 44 years 10.9 8.4 16.7 11.0 10.4 11.6 16.4 20.1

45 to 54 years 9.2 8.4 5.3 8.8 8.5 10.1 11.6 20.3

55 to 64 years 11.0 10.8 12.1 9.5 7.3 14.6 13.2 7.0

65 years & over 11.1 7.7 - - - 18.8 25.0 -

The unemployment rate among men ranges from 12.7 percent in rural areas with a strong link to

urban centres to 22.9 percent in remote rural regions. The unemployment rate for Aboriginal men

is significantly higher than the provincial average. For instance, the average rate among Aboriginal

men aged 15 to 64 is 15.4 percent compared to the provincial average of 8.4 percent. The

unemployment rate among Aboriginal men aged 15 to 24 years equals 28.9 percent compared to

the provincial average of 21.1 percent. The rate for the Aboriginal men aged 25 to 34 is 15.9

percent compared to the provincial average of 7.7 percent. The unemployment gap between

101

Aboriginal and total men in Ontario ranges from a low of 4.6 percent in remote rural areas to a

high of 11.1 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres. The overall unemployment

gap for individuals aged 15 and over equals 7.0 percent.

The unemployment rate among Aboriginal women ranges from a low of 9.9 percent in rural areas

with a strong link to urban centres to a high of 18.2 percent in remote rural regions. In general,

Aboriginal women have a higher unemployment rate than the provincial average. For example, the

unemployment rate for Aboriginal women aged 15 and over equals 12.5 percent compared to the

provincial average of 8.3 percent. Similarly, the rate among Aboriginal women aged 25 to 34

equals 13.4 percent compared to the rate among all women of 8.3 percent. Also, Aboriginal women

have a higher unemployment rate than Aboriginal men (Figure 5.6). The unemployment gap ranges

from a low of 1.3 percent in CMAs to a high of 6.6 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban

centres.

Table 5.10: Unemployment Rate Among Aboriginal Women by Age and Degree of Rurality

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ

15 years & over 12.5 12.6 12.2 11.0 9.9 12.0 13.8 18.2

15 to 64 years 12.6 12.6 12.4 11.1 9.9 11.6 14.0 18.8

15 to 24 years 25.0 24.7 26.4 21.8 21.8 23.4 29.6 39.2

25 to 34 years 13.4 12.8 8.1 10.1 9.4 16.3 21.4 22.0

35 to 44 years 8.2 8.2 11.5 6.1 4.4 7.4 8.8 14.6

45 to 54 years 8.6 8.6 9.0 10.2 7.5 8.5 7.2 11.6

55 to 64 years 8.0 9.7 6.7 5.0 8.7 6.0 3.8 8.2

65 years & over 10.6 10.0 - - - - - -


15.3 13.9

16.5 15.0

12.7

16.2

20.4

22.9

12.5 12.6 12.2 11.0

9.9 12.0

13.8

18.2

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0


Figure 5.6: Unemployment Rate by Degree of Rurality (%)

Men Women

102

Table 5.11 shows the percentage distribution of Aboriginal people aged 15 years and over in

Ontario by highest level of education and geography. The level of educational attainment declines

as the degree of rurality rises. About 27.1 percent of individuals in CMAs do not have a high

school diploma compared to 55.0 percent in remote rural regions. These shares do not change

significantly when we focus on individuals between the ages of 15 to 64. For them, the percentage

of individuals without a high school diploma equals 25.6 and 53.9 percent in CMAs and remote

rural regions respectively. Overall, 21.8 percent have a college diploma and 9.1 percent have a

university degree compared to the provincial average of 19.8 and 23.4 percent respectively. On the

other hand, the shares of those with an apprenticeship or trades certificate equals 9.9 percent for

Aboriginal people compared to the provincial average of 7.4 percent. The same is true for urban

and rural regions with a strong and moderate link to urban centres. The question is whether greater

share of trades has resulted in a higher employment rate in trades occupations for the Aboriginal

people or not? We will address this question below.

Table 5.11: Highest Level of Educational Attainment by Geography


Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ







bachelor level 2.4 2.8 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.1



Total Percentage 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Total Numbers 227,235 119,990 13,525 22,005 22,255 10,535

Table 5.12 shows the participation rate by highest level of educational attainment by geography

among the Aboriginal people aged 15 and over.



Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ









diploma to a high of 82.4 percent for persons with a university degree. Those with a trades

103

certificate have a higher participation rate in relatively remote rural areas compared to the urban

regions. This is likely the result of resource-based activities in relatively remote regions.



of education increases. Compared to the provincial average, the Aboriginal people have a lower

employment rate than the provincial average. The only exception is for those with a university

degree. For example, the employment rate for Aboriginal individuals with a university degree

equals 77.1 percent compared to the provincial average of 74.6 percent. For those with an

apprenticeship or trades certificate, the employment rate among the Aboriginal population equals

59.4 percent compared to the provincial average of 61.5 percent. In other words, a higher share of

Aboriginal people with trades certificates has not translated into a higher share of employment

among the Aboriginal people.

Table 5.13: Employment Rate by Education and Geography


Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ






University degree at bachelor level or above 77.1 78.4 77.3 65.4 80.2 70.4

Table 5.14 shows the unemployment rates by education and geography among the Aboriginal

people. The unemployment rate is highest for persons without a high school diploma (24.4%)

followed by those with a high school diploma (15.6%). In general, the unemployment rate declines

as the level of educational attainment rises. Remote rural regions have higher unemployment rates

than urban centres. Irrespective of the level of educational attainment, the Aboriginal people have

a higher unemployment rate than the provincial average. For example, the unemployment rate for

Aboriginal persons without a high school diploma equals 24.4 percent compared to the provincial

average of 14.3 percent (Figure 5.7). The unemployment gap declines as the level of educational

attainment rises. It declines from 10.1 percent for those without a high school diploma to 4.7

percent for persons with a high school diploma, 3.3 percent for those with a college diploma and

0.6 percent for university graduates.

104

Table 5.14: Unemployment Rate by Education and Geography


Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ



certificate 15.6 15.1 13.2 17.5 21.7 18.0


diploma 11.7 11.9 6.4 11.5 16.2 22.2

College or other non-university certificate or

diploma 9.6 9.3 6.9 7.6 8.6 15.3

University degree at bachelor level or above 6.3 6.2 5.7 7.7 4.3 7.5

24.4

15.6

11.7 9.6

6.3

14.3

10.9

7.2 6.3 5.7

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

No certificate High school Apprenticeship/Trades College University

Figure 5.7: Unemployment Rates (%)

Aboriginal Provincial Average

105


Table 5.15 shows the age distribution of couple and lone-parent Aboriginal families in Ontario.


Age Group Couple Family Lone-Parent Family

15 to 24 years 21.1 38.4

25 to 34 years 17.9 17.8

35 to 44 years 19.1 18.2

45 to 54 years 19.7 15.4

55 to 64 years 13.9 5.7


15 to 64 years 91.8 95.5

Total Percentage 100.0 100.0

Total 15 years and over 139,665 39,390

Aboriginal families are younger than the provincial average. The majority of the couple or lone-

parent families are between the ages of 15 and 24. For example, about 21.1 percent of couple

families are between the ages of 15 and 24 compared to the provincial average of 15.8 percent.

Also, 38.4 percent of the lone-parent Aboriginal families are between the ages of 15 to 24

compared to the provincial average of 30.9 percent. Similarly, 19.1 and 18.2 percent of Aboriginal

couple and lone-parent families are between the ages of 25 to 34 compared to the provincial

average of 14.7 and 15.2 percent respectively.

It is of interest to inquire about the geographical distribution of lone-parent families, especially the

very young ones. Do they reside in urban or rural areas? Table 5.16 shows that about 55.1 percent

of lone-parent families live in CMAs, 7.4 percent in tracted CAs and 10.8 percent in untracted

CAs. In other words, about 73.3 percent of lone-parent families live in urban areas. On the other

hand, about 16.0 percent of lone-parent families live in relatively remote rural areas with weak or

no link to urban centres.

Table 5.16: Percentage Age Distribution of Lone-Parent Families

Age Group CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No

MIZ Total

15 years & over 55.1 7.4 10.8 3.6 7.2 10.8 5.2 100

15 to 64 years 55.6 7.5 10.9 3.4 7.1 10.6 4.9 100

15 to 24 years 56.6 7.0 12.2 3.1 6.7 9.9 4.5 100

25 to 34 years 55.5 7.4 9.5 3.3 5.8 13.1 5.4 100

35 to 44 years 53.8 9.0 11.4 3.1 7.7 9.7 5.2 100

45 to 54 years 55.2 7.5 9.8 4.8 8.3 9.4 5.0 100

55 to 64 years 55.1 6.9 8.6 3.1 8.2 13.3 5.1 100

65 years &over 46.0 4.2 8.8 6.5 9.9 14.1 10.2 100

Total 21,710 2,910 4,265 1,405 2,840 4,235 2,030 39,395

106

Figure 5.8 shows the participation rate by family structure and age group in Ontario. The

participation rate among the lone-parent families is lower than the rate among the couple families

in all age classes. Overall, the participation gap for those aged 15 to 64 is 16.4 percent. The

participation gap ranges from a high of 19.9 percent for families aged 25 to 34 to a low of 8.2

percent for families aged 65 and over.

Figure 5.9 shows the employment rate by family structure and age group. Similar to the

participation rate, the employment rate among lone-parent families is much lower than those

among couple families for all age groups. The employment gap ranges from a high of 25.1 percent

among families aged 25 to 34 to a low of 8.2 percent for families aged 65 and over. Overall, the

employment gap between couple families and lone-parent families equals 17.7 percent.


rate is much higher for lone-parent families irrespective of their age class. The unemployment gap

reaches as high as 12.7 percent for those between the ages of 25 and 34 followed by those aged 15

to 24 (10.1%). Overall, the unemployment gap for those between the ages of 15 to 64 equals 10.2

percent. The average unemployment rate among the Aboriginal couple families equals 11.8

66.7 71.2

55.4

80.8 82.9 79.5

54.9

16.7

52.7 54.8

42.3

60.9 68.5 66.4

45.6

8.5

- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 5.8: Participation Rate by Economic Family Status (%)


58.8 62.7

41.8

70.2 76.7 73.3

50.5

15.3

41.1 42.7

27.5

45.1

59.2 59.1

40.5

7.1

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 5.9: Employent Rate by Economic Family Status and Age Class(%)


107

percent compared to the provincial average of 7.6 percent. The average unemployment rate among

Aboriginal lone-parent families equals 22.0 percent compared to the provincial average of 13.2

percent. In general, the unemployment rate among Aboriginal families is much higher than the

provincial average. However, the gap is much smaller for the couple families compared to the

lone-parent families.


About 25.3 percent of Aboriginal individuals in Ontario reported having difficulty with daily

activity and/or having activity limitations. Table 5.17 shows their age distribution. In general,

activity limitation rises with age. About 10.3 percent of individuals under the age of 15 reported

having activity limitations compared to 62.8 percent of individuals aged 65 and over. About 26.9

percent of individuals who reported having activity limitations are between the ages of 15 and 64

of which 27.2 percent are in their prime working-age.


Age Group No. of Persons Percentage of Age Class


15 to 24 years 7,040 13.8

25 to 34 years 6,995 17.4

35 to 44 years 10,130 24.7

45 to 54 years 17,275 38.3

55 to 64 years 14,325 48.6



15 to 64 years 55,755 26.9

Total Age Groups 76,145 25.3

The share of individuals aged 65 and over who reported having a disability equals 62.8 percent

among the Aboriginal people compared to the provincial average of 50.7 percent. Also, the

11.8 11.9

24.6

13.1 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.6

22.0 22.1

34.7

25.8

13.7 11.1 11.2 13.3

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 5.10: Unemployment Rate by Economic Family Status and Age Class (%)


108

disability rate among Aboriginal persons 15 years of age and over equals 30.2 percent compared

to the provincial average of 26.2 percent. The incidence of disability among the Aboriginal persons

under the age of 15 equals 10.3 percent compared to the provincial average of 6.4 percent.




rates followed by those who reported having difficulty at home only. On average, the participation

rate among persons aged 15 years of age and over who reported having difficulty with daily activity

and/or activity limitations equaled 40.8 percent compared to 71.2 percent for those without a

disability.


Age Class

No

Difficulty



Limited at

home only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 71.2 40.8 28.6 1.4

15 to 64 years 73.6 47.8 37.7 1.9

15 to 24 years 54.6 39.8 35.7 1.3

25 to 34 years 81.6 55.2 38.3 2.5

35 to 44 years 85.6 55.7 48.7 2.1

45 to 54 years 86.0 51.5 41.6 2.1

55 to 64 years 64.4 38.2 29.4 1.5

65 years & over 19.9 10.2 6.6 0.4


persons with disabilities is much lower than that for those without a disability. On average, the

employment rate among Aboriginal persons aged 15 and over who reported having difficulty with

daily activity and/or activity limitations equaled 34.3 percent compared to 61.7 percent for those

without a disability. The average employment rate of Aboriginal persons with disability (34.3%)

is close to the provincial average (36.1%). The same is true for those who are limited at home and

those who are limited both at home and in other activities.


Age Class

No

Difficulty

Difficulty with daily activities

and no limitation in activities

Limited at

Home Only

Limited at home and in

other activities

15 years & over 61.7 34.3 21.4 10.9

15 to 64 years 63.7 40.1 28.0 14.1

15 to 24 years 40.1 27.2 22.6 5.0

25 to 34 years 70.6 42.6 18.8 13.3

35 to 44 years 78.6 47.1 32.3 16.0

45 to 54 years 78.9 45.8 33.9 17.0

55 to 64 years 59.7 33.4 24.9 11.9

65 years & over 18.6 8.6 5.5 2.9

109





16.1 percent compared to 13.4 percent for those without a disability.


Age Class

No

Difficulty

Difficulty with daily activities

and no limitation in activities

Limited at

Home Only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 13.4 16.1 25.3 23.8

15 to 64 years 13.4 16.1 26.0 24.1

15 to 24 years 26.6 31.7 36.7 53.3

25 to 34 years 13.5 22.8 51.0 49.1

35 to 44 years 8.2 15.2 33.8 22.1

45 to 54 years 8.3 11.0 18.4 18.0

55 to 64 years 7.3 12.4 15.3 21.9

65 years & over 6.7 15.3 - 22.4

The unemployment rates of Aboriginal individuals with or without a disability are much higher

than the provincial averages. For example, the average unemployment rate of Aboriginals who

reported activity limitation equals 16.1 percent compared to the provincial average of 10.4 percent.

Aboriginals who reported being limited at home have an unemployment rate of 25.3 percent

compared to the provincial average of 13.6 percent. Those who reported being limited at home and

in other activities have an unemployment rate of 23.8 percent compared to the provincial average

of 14.7 percent.

110

Socio-Economic Profile of the Aboriginal Population Receiving Social Assistance

The sample used in this section includes Aboriginal transfer payment recipients between the ages

of 25 and 64 who were not employed, were members of a low-income family and received more

than $1000 in transfer payments in 2010.



Age Group Men Women

25 to 29 years 7.6 13.5

30 to 34 years 12.9 9.1

35 to 39 years 11.1 10.4

40 to 44 years 12.0 12.6

45 to 49 years 17.8 14.4

50 to 54 years 15.1 14.4

55 to 59 years 14.7 14.4

60 to 64 years 8.9 11.3

Total 100.0 100.0

About 76.5 percent of low income Aboriginal men are in their prime working-age (25-54) group.

Similarly, 74.4 percent of Aboriginal women are in their prime working-age group. The rest or

23.6 percent of men and 25.7 percent of women are between the ages of 55 and 64.








College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma

(3 months to less than 1 year) 0.9 6.2


(1 to 2 years) 7.6 11.5


(more than 2 years) 4.0 4.9





111

About 65.3 percent of Aboriginal men and 63.3 percent of Aboriginal women have up to a high

school diploma. About 12.0 percent of men have a trade certificate and 5.3 percent have a

registered apprenticeship certificate. About 11.6 percent of men and 16.4 percent of women have

a 1 to 3 year college diploma. The incidence of poverty is much higher among those with a 1 to 3

year college diploma than those with a 3 months to 1 year college diploma. About 3.5 percent of

men and 5.7 percent of women with a bachelor’s degree or higher are also among the transfer

payment recipients. Overall, about 34.7 percent of low income Aboriginal men and 36.7 percent

of low income Aboriginal women receiving transfer payments have a post-secondary diploma or

degree.

Table 5.23 shows the marital status of persons in the sample.









Total 100.0 100.0

About 47.1 percent of men and 41.7 percent of women are never married singles. The incidence

of poverty is lower among divorced, separated and widowed men compared to divorced and

separated women. Also, the data shows that about 8.4 percent of low income Aboriginal men are

lone-parents compared to 42.2 percent of women.









About 14.7 percent of low income Aboriginal men and 16.1 percent of low-income Aboriginal

women have never worked. On the other hand, 66.7 percent of low income men and 67.0 percent

of low income women worked before 2010. The rest worked in 2010 and 2011. About 57.6 percent

of men and 56.8 percent of women who never worked do not have a high school diploma. About

21.2 percent of men who never worked and 24.3 percent of women who never worked have a high

school diploma. About 12.1 percent of men who never worked have a trades certificate and 6.0

112

percent have a college diploma. Among women who never worked, 2.7 percent have a trade

certificate, 10.8 percent have a college diploma and 2.7 percent have a bachelor’s degree.

113

PART VI: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THE

IMMIGRANT POPULATION IN ONTARIO

Immigrant population is defined as persons who are, or have ever been, landed immigrants in

Canada. Table 6.1 shows the age distribution of the immigrant population in Ontario during 2001-

2011.

Table 6.1: Immigrant Population in Ontario

Age Groups 2001 2011

0 to 14 years 176,815 376,920

15 to 24 years 260,830 568,215

24 to 34 years 419,750 875,485

35 to 44 years 598,840 1,227,770

45 to 54 years 577,475 1,283,200

55 to 64 years 429,975 1,084,800

65 to 74 years 335,420 758,360

75 years and over 225,265 601,025

Total 3,024,370 6,775,775

Average age 45.9 47.0

Median Age 46.2 47.4

Table 6.1 shows that the immigrant population has increased by more than 124.0 percent during

2001-2011. This amounts to a growth rate of 12.4 percent per year. The number of immigrants has

increased in all age categories. However, like the overall population, the average age of immigrants

has increased from 45.9 years in 2001 to 47.0 years in 2011. Similarly, the median age of

immigrants has risen from 46.2 years in 2001 to 47.4 years in 2011.

As Figure 6.1 shows, almost all immigrants reside in urban areas. Only a small percentage of them

live in rural areas.

100.0 97.2

1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 -

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0


Figure 6.1: Immigrant Population in Ontario (%)

114

In what follows, we examine various labour market indicators of the immigrant population in

Ontario. We also examine whether the average labour force participation, employment and

unemployment rates vary when one moves from urban centres to rural areas.


Table 6.2 and Figure 6.2 shows the participation rate in urban and rural Ontario by age and

geography in 2011.

Table 6.2: Immigrant Labour Force Participation Rate in Ontario

Age Group Total CMAs

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 61.3 62.1 45.1 47.5 51.9 45.7 48.3

15 to 64 years 75.2 75.3 71.1 71.7 73.9 72.1 74.2

15 to 24 years 50.4 50.1 56.6 61.0 64.3 69.1 55.1

25 to 34 years 79.8 79.8 76.8 76.3 77.0 83.7 81.7

35 to 44 years 83.9 83.9 83.6 83.1 84.9 85.0 88.5

45 to 54 years 83.7 83.7 87.5 83.0 85.3 84.3 86.3

55 to 64 years 64.9 65.3 55.0 57.9 61.4 59.3 62.2

65 years & over 12.8 12.7 10.6 11.4 16.6 15.7 14.0

The average participation rate varies from a low of 45.1 percent in tracted CAs to 62.1 percent in

CMAs. Individuals aged from 25 to 54 are in their prime working-age years and have the highest

labour force participation rate. Those aged 65 and older have the lowest participation rate even

though their participation rate has risen significantly in the recent decade. The participation rate

among immigrants aged 15 and over equals 61.3 percent compared to the provincial average of

65.5 percent. The rate among immigrants aged 15 to 64 equals 75.2 percent compared to the

provincial average of 76.0 percent. In general, the average participation rate among immigrants is

lower in all geographic areas.

61.3 62.1

45.1 47.5 51.9

45.7 48.3

65.5 66.5

60.5 60.966.3

59.461.7

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Total CMAs CA (tracted) CA (untracted) Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ

Figure 6.2: Participation Rate by Geography (%)

Immigrants Provincial Average

115

Tables 6.3 and 6.4 show the labour force participation rate of immigrant men and women by age

and geography in Ontario. The participation rate for men ranges from a low of 49.2 percent in

tracted CAs to 68.5 percent in CMAs. For women, the rate varies from a low of 41.0 percent in

rural regions with a moderate link to urban centres to 56.5 percent in CMAs. Persons in their prime

working-age groups (25 to 54 years) have the highest participation rate. The participation rate

among persons aged 65 and over is relatively low. In general, the participation rate for immigrant

men is much greater than the rate for women in urban as well as rural areas (Figure 6.3). On

average, the gap between the participation rate of men and women is about 11.9 percent. It reaches

a maximum of 16.4 percent in untracted CAs.

The participation rate among immigrant men aged 15 to 64 equals 81.5 percent compared to the

provincial average of 79.6 percent. The rate among immigrant women equals 69.5 percent

compared to the provincial average of 72.6 percent.



CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 67.6 68.5 49.2 57.5 57.7 50.7 53.4

15 to 64 years 81.5 81.6 76.5 94.4 81.1 78.4 81.6

15 to 24 years 50.3 49.8 53.7 75.0 71.8 70.1 51.0

25 to 34 years 88.2 88.1 84.6 - 89.9 91.6 96.8

35 to 44 years 91.8 91.8 92.9 100.0 94.8 89.8 96.9

45 to 54 years 89.5 89.4 90.8 100.0 90.0 92.7 89.3

55 to 64 years 73.8 74.4 61.4 91.7 68.7 66.2 72.9

65 years and over 17.3 17.3 13.5 26.7 20.4 19.8 17.3



CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 55.7 56.5 41.4 41.1 46.4 41.0 43.6

15 to 64 years 69.5 69.6 66.3 64.0 67.0 66.4 67.6

15 to 24 years 50.5 50.3 58.3 55.7 55.9 67.9 60.0

25 to 34 years 72.9 73.1 71.3 59.5 65.2 75.2 70.6

35 to 44 years 77.2 77.3 76.1 73.6 76.3 81.4 81.0

45 to 54 years 78.4 78.4 84.5 76.9 81.1 77.8 82.6

55 to 64 years 56.7 57.0 49.5 52.2 53.8 52.7 52.6

65 years & over 9.0 8.9 8.1 8.4 12.8 11.8 11.0

116


Table 6.5 shows the average employment rate for immigrants in Ontario by age and geography.

As discussed before, employment rate shows the percentage of the working-age population that is

employed. It varies from a low of 42.4 percent in tracted CAs to a high of 56.8 percent in CMAs.

As was the case for the participation rate, the employment rate is highest among the prime

working-age men (25 to 54). It is lowest, but has been rising among those aged 65 and over.

Immigrants have a lower employment rate than the provincial average. For example, the

employment rate among immigrants aged 15 and over equals 56.1 percent compared to the

provincial average of 60.1 percent. Immigrants aged 25 to 34 have an employment rate of 71.8

percent compared to the provincial average of 78.1 percent.

Table 6.5: Immigrant’s Employment Rate by Age and Degree of Rurality


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 56.1 56.8 42.4 43.8 48.9 42.8 45.3

15 to 64 years 68.7 68.7 66.7 66.3 69.3 67.5 69.5

15 to 24 years 39.4 39.0 42.8 48.1 56.2 59.2 51.7

25 to 34 years 71.8 71.9 70.6 70.7 70.9 75.3 75.6

35 to 44 years 77.5 77.5 76.8 78.0 79.7 79.9 83.9

45 to 54 years 78.2 78.1 83.8 77.4 81.3 80.6 81.0

55 to 64 years 60.4 60.8 53.3 54.6 57.9 55.7 57.6

65 years & over 11.9 11.8 10.2 10.4 15.9 14.8 13.3

67.6 68.5

49.2

57.5 57.7 50.7 53.4 55.7 56.5

41.4 41.1 46.4

41.0 43.6

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Total CMAs CA (tracted) CA(untracted)

Strong MIZ ModerateMIZ

Weak MIZ

Figure 6.3: Participation Rate Among Immigrants (%)

Men Women

117

The employment gap between immigrants aged 15 and over and the provincial average ranges

from 9.7 percent in CMAs to 13.0 percent in rural areas with a strong link to urban centres (Figure

6.4).

Tables 6.6 and 6.7 show the employment rate for immigrant men and women by geography and

age group. The employment rate for men ranged from a low of 46.7 percent in tracted CAs to 63.1

percent in CMAs. For women, it varied from a low of 37.4 percent in untracted CAs to 51.1 percent

in CMAs. The employment rate is highest among the prime working-age persons and lowest for

those aged 65 and over.

The average employment rate among immigrant men equaled 62.4 percent compared to the

provincial average of 64.2 percent. The employment gap among immigrant men and the provincial

average is as low as 2.0 percent in CMAs and reaches as high as 11.2 percent in rural areas with a

strong link to urban centres. The average employment rate among immigrant women aged 15 and

over equals 50.5 percent compared to the provincial average of 56.3 percent. The employment gap

between immigrant women and the provincial average ranges from 5.9 percent in CMAs to 14.9

percent in untracted CAs. Overall, immigrant men and women have lower employment rates in all

regions.

In general, the employment rate is highest for men compared to women (Figure 6.5). The gap

between the employment rate of men and women averages about 11.9 percent and ranges from 8.0

percent in tracted CAs to 13.6 percent in untracted CAs.

56.1 56.8

42.4 43.8 48.9

42.8 45.3

60.1

66.5

54.9 55.8

61.9

54.5 56.5

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0




118

Table 6.6: Employment Rate for Immigrant Men by Age and Degree of Rurality


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years and over 62.4 63.1 46.7 51.0 54.6 47.7 49.8

15 to 64 years 75.1 75.1 72.6 74.6 76.5 73.9 75.9

15 to 24 years 39.2 38.6 45.3 54.7 66.8 61.4 51.0

25 to 34 years 80.8 80.6 79.4 89.3 86.1 85.2 90.5

35 to 44 years 86.4 86.3 88.2 89.5 89.1 84.8 90.8

45 to 54 years 84.1 84.0 87.3 83.9 86.3 89.1 84.6

55 to 64 years 68.6 69.1 59.1 60.0 64.3 62.5 65.5

65 years and over 16.3 16.2 12.7 14.1 19.7 18.6 16.3

Table 6.7: Employment Rate for Immigrant Women by Age and Degree of Rurality


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years and over 50.5 51.1 38.7 37.4 43.4 38.3 41.1

15 to 64 years 62.9 63.0 61.6 58.5 62.5 61.7 63.8

15 to 24 years 39.7 39.5 38.9 41.2 45.4 56.6 55.0

25 to 34 years 64.5 64.6 64.9 52.7 57.5 64.8 61.8

35 to 44 years 70.1 70.0 67.6 67.9 71.2 75.3 78.5

45 to 54 years 72.8 72.7 80.6 71.7 76.7 73.8 78.4

55 to 64 years 52.9 53.1 48.4 49.6 51.3 49.5 50.2

65 years and over 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.3 12.1 11.3 10.4

62.4 63.1

46.7 51.0

54.6

47.7 49.8 50.5 51.1

38.7 37.4

43.4 38.3

41.1

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


Figure 6.5: Employment Rates Among Immigrants (%)

Men Women

119


Table 6.8 shows the unemployment rate among the immigrant population in Ontario by age and

geography. The rate is lowest in tracted CAs and rural areas with a strong link to urban centres

(5.9%) and highest in CMAs (8.7%). On average, the unemployment rate equaled 8.6 percent

compared to the provincial average of 8.3 percent. While immigrants have a higher unemployment

rate in CMAs (8.7% compared to 8.3%), they recorded a lower unemployment rate in CAs and

rural areas. For example, their unemployment rates in rural areas with a strong, moderate and weak

link to urban centres equaled 5.9, 6.2 and 6.2 percent respectively compared to the provincial average

of 6.7, 8.2 and 8.4 percent respectively. The same is true for immigrants aged 15 to 64 years.

Table 6.8: Unemployment Rate among Immigrants by Age and Degree of Rurality


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 8.6 8.7 5.9 7.7 5.9 6.2 6.2

15 to 64 years 8.6 8.7 6.1 7.6 6.1 6.4 6.3

15 to 24 years 21.9 22.0 24.5 21.1 12.3 14.9 -

25 to 34 years 10.0 10.0 8.0 7.5 8.1 10.0 7.5

35 to 44 years 7.6 7.6 8.2 6.2 6.3 6.2 4.7

45 to 54 years 6.6 6.6 4.4 6.8 4.7 4.4 6.1

55 to 64 years 6.9 7.0 3.2 5.7 5.6 6.0 7.4

65 years & over 6.9 7.0 4.3 8.6 4.2 5.1 5.6

Tables 6.9 and 6.10 show the unemployment rate among immigrant men and women by age and

geography in Ontario. The unemployment rate for immigrant men is lower than the provincial

average in all regions. For example, the average unemployment rate for immigrant men equaled

7.7 percent compared to the provincial average of 8.3 percent. Immigrant men in tracted CAs had

an unemployment rate of 5.2 percent compared to the provincial average of 10.1 percent.

Table 6.9: Unemployment Rate among Immigrant Men by Age and Degree of Rurality


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 7.7 7.8 5.2 6.7 5.3 5.9 6.6

15 to 64 years 7.8 7.9 5.1 6.8 5.6 5.8 7.1

15 to 24 years 22.2 22.6 15.7 17.2 7.5 13.5 -

25 to 34 years 8.4 8.5 7.0 4.9 5.0 7.0 4.9

35 to 44 years 5.9 5.9 5.1 4.8 6.1 5.2 6.3

45 to 54 years 6.0 6.1 3.9 6.7 4.2 3.7 6.6

55 to 64 years 7.1 7.1 3.7 6.3 6.5 5.8 9.6

65 years & over 6.2 6.3 5.1 5.7 3.4 6.5 4.7

120

Table 6.10: Unemployment Rate among Immigrant Women by Age and Degree of Rurality


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 9.5 9.6 6.7 8.9 6.6 6.6 5.6

15 to 64 years 9.5 9.6 7.1 8.5 6.8 7.1 5.6

15 to 24 years 21.5 21.4 38.1 26.0 19.5 15.3 -

25 to 34 years 11.5 11.5 8.9 11.4 11.9 13.8 10.4

35 to 44 years 9.3 9.4 11.1 7.8 6.4 7.1 4.1

45 to 54 years 7.1 7.2 4.6 6.9 5.3 4.8 5.7

55 to 64 years 6.7 6.8 2.6 4.9 4.6 6.2 4.6

65 years & over 8.1 8.2 2.1 13.3 5.4 3.4 5.3

The average unemployment rate among immigrant women equaled 9.5 percent compared to the

provincial average of 8.3 percent. The unemployment rate equaled 9.6 percent in CMAs compared

to the provincial average of 8.4 percent. In general, immigrant women registered lower

unemployment rates in rural areas.

The unemployment rate is higher among immigrant women than men (Figure 6.6). On average,

the unemployment gap between Immigrant men and women equaled 1.7 percent. The gap is

largest in tracted CAs (2.2%).

7.7 7.8

5.2

6.7

5.3 5.9

6.6

9.5 9.6

6.7

8.9

6.6 6.6

5.6

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0


Figure 6.6: Unemployment Rate among Immigrants (%)

Men Women

121


Table 6.11 shows the percentage distribution of immigrants aged 15 years and over in Ontario by

highest level of education and geography. In general, the level of educational attainment declines

as one moves from urban to rural areas. Persons living in CMAs have the highest level of

educational attainment. A higher share of immigrants have a university education (28.6%)

compared to the provincial average (23.4%). About the same percentage have less than a high

school education. As mentioned above, not all immigrants have their post-secondary certificates

or degrees from inside Canada. From 2,008,735 immigrants who have post-secondary credentials,

only 48.7 percent have their final credentials obtained from Canadian institutions while 51.3

percent received their degrees from foreign countries. As mentioned above, research suggests that

newcomers face barriers that may impede the recognition of their credentials and work experience,

with consequences for their labour market performance and broader integration within Canadian

society.41

Table 6.11: Immigrant Population 15 years and over by Highest Level of Educational Achievement


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No certificate or diploma 18.6 18.3 19.5 28.1 22.2 17.2 18.2

High school diploma 23.1 23.0 25.4 23.1 23.6 23.2 22.9

Apprenticeship or trades 7.2 6.9 11.8 10.3 13.1 13.2 15.0

College diploma 16.4 16.1 19.8 19.2 22.3 22.6 21.2

University below bachelor 6.2 6.3 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.8 4.4

University degree at

bachelor level or above 28.6 29.3 19.3 15.6 14.9 18.9 18.3

Total (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Total Number 3,442,890 3,247,065 25,315 69,970 52,700 35,700 11,800

Table 6.12 shows the participation rate for immigrants by highest level of educational attainment

and geography.

Table 6.12: Participation Rate by Education and Geography (%)


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No certificate, diploma or degree 32.4 32.3 19.9 35.3 37.4 32.6 30.0


Apprenticeship or trades

certificate 58.7 60.4 41.2 38.3 47.5 40.2 46.7

College diploma 70.4 71.6 57.9 54.7 60.1 50.1 56.6

University below bachelor level 71.1 71.8 56.2 53.1 59.7 44.3 51.4

University degree at bachelor

level or above 77.2 77.7 62.9 63.6 65.3 58.1 60.6

41 Statistics Canada, Rene Houle and Lahouaria Yssaad, “Recognition of newcomers’ foreign credentials and work experience”, September 2010.

122

Irrespective of the level of educational attainment, immigrants have a lower participation rate

compared to the provincial average. The participation gap between the immigrant and the

provincial average ranges from 1.9 percent for those with a university degree to 7.8 percent for

persons with a high school diploma (Figure 6.7).



of education increases. Persons residing in rural areas with a strong link to urban centers have the

highest employment rates for all levels of educational attainment. Irrespective of the level of

educational attainment, immigrants have a lower employment rate than the provincial average

(Figure 6.8).

Table 6.13: Employment Rate of Immigrants by Highest Level of Educational Attainment & Geography


CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No certificate, diploma or degree 28.6 28.5 17.9 31.6 33.7 30.0 28.8



diploma 54.3 55.8 40.0 36.0 45.6 37.9 43.1


certificate or diploma 65.3 66.3 55.1 51.4 56.4 47.4 53.4


bachelor level 65.6 66.2 52.1 50.6 58.2 42.3 49.5

Total University certificate, diploma or

degree at bachelor level or above 71.5 72.0 60.1 59.8 62.5 55.4 56.5

32.4

56.8 58.7

70.4 77.2

36.4

64.6 65.7

77.0 79.1

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0


Apprenticeshipor trades



Immigrants Province

123

The employment gap is highest for those with a high school diploma (7.1%) followed by those

with a college diploma (6.9%) and trades certificate (6.7%). As mentioned before, one of the

barriers immigrants face is that foreign credentials are not generally recognized by employers.

Also, immigrants who are employed are not necessarily working in their field of education.

Statistics Canada reports that education-to-job mismatch is particularly prevalent among recent

immigrants with university education. They report that “a recent analysis of 2006 Census data

shows that just under one-quarter (24%) of employed foreign-educated, university-level

immigrants were working in a regulated occupation that matched their field of study, compared to

62 percent of their Canadian-born counterparts. And among immigrants whose occupation did not

match their field of study, 77 percent worked in jobs that do not usually require a degree, compared

to 57 percent of 'unmatched' Canadian-born graduates.”42


of rurality. The unemployment rate declines as the level of educational achievement increases. The

unemployment rate is highest for persons without a high school diploma (11.8%) followed by

those with a high school diploma (11.0%).


Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No certificate or degree 11.8 11.9 10.3 10.6 9.7 8.0 3.9


Apprenticeship or trades 7.5 7.6 3.3 6.2 4.0 6.1 7.9

College diploma 7.3 7.4 4.8 6.2 6.2 5.4 5.7

University degree 7.3 7.4 4.4 5.8 4.2 4.6 6.9

42 Zietsma, Danielle. 2010. “Immigrants working in regulated occupations.” Perspectives on Labour and Income. Vol. 11, no. 2. February. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 75-001-X. (accessed August 10, 2010).

28.6

50.5 54.3

65.3 71.5

31.2

57.6 61.0

72.2 74.6

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

No certificate ordegree

High schooldiploma

Apprenticeship ortrades





124

The unemployment rate for immigrants with or without a high school diploma appears to be lower

than the provincial average. However, the rate is higher for those with a post-secondary certificate

or degree (Figure 6.9).


Table 6.15 shows the age distribution of couple and lone-parent immigrant families in Ontario.

Couple and lone-parent families account for 86.9 and 10.4 percent of immigrant economic families

respectively.


Age Group Couple Family Lone-Parent Family

15 to 64 years 79.7 85.1

15 to 24 years 8.5 15.8

25 to 34 years 12.5 14.1

35 to 44 years 19.3 17.6

45 to 54 years 21.5 23.1

55 to 64 years 18.0 14.4


Total (%) 100.0 100.0

Number: 15 years and over 2,619,035 309,710

Most of the couple families (79.7%) are between the ages of 15 and 64 and the rest are seniors.

Similarly, the majority of the lone-parent families (85.1%) are between the ages of 15 and 64 years.

Overall, about 53.2 percent of the couple families and 54.9 percent of lone-parent families are in

their prime working-age.

11.8 11.0

7.5 7.3 7.3

14.3

10.9

7.26.3

5.7

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

No certificate ordegree

High schooldiploma



Figure 6.9: Unemployment Rate by Education (%)


125

Figure 6.10 shows the participation rate by family structure and age group in Ontario. As was the

case with the total population, the participation rate among the lone-parent families is lower than

the rate among the couple families in all age classes except for those between the ages of 55 and

64 years. Overall, the participation gap for those aged 15 to 64 equals 5.4 percent. The gap is

largest for those aged 35 to 44 years (6.6%). In general, the participation rate among immigrant

families is lower than the provincial rates for all family types and all ages.

Figure 6.11shows the employment rate by family structure and age group. As was the case for the

total population, the employment rate among lone-parent families is lower than those among the

couple families for all age groups. The employment gap for persons between the ages of 15 and

64 equals 7.5 percent. The gap is at its highest level of 8.8 percent for those aged 35 to 44 and is

relatively low for those aged 15 to 24.


rate is higher for lone-parent families irrespective of their age. The unemployment gap reaches as

63.0

75.6

49.7

78.9 84.2 84.7

65.2

13.9

61.3 70.2

49.2

76.1 77.6 78.4

65.2

10.9

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 6.10: Participation Rate by Economic Family Structure (%)


57.9

69.4

38.8

71.2 78.1 79.5

61.1

13.0

54.1 61.8

37.3

64.9 69.3 71.9

60.4

10.1

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 6.11: Employment Rate by Family Structure (%)


126

high as 5.0 percent for those between the ages of 25 and 34 followed by those aged 35 to 44 (3.4%).

Overall, the unemployment gap for those between the ages of 15 to 64 equals 3.7 percent.


Overall, about 24.2 percent of immigrants in Ontario reported having difficulty with daily activity

and/or having activity limitations compared to the average of 20.0 percent of the population in

Ontario. Table 6.16 shows their age distribution. In general, activity limitation rises with age. Only

8.1 percent of individuals under age 15 reported having activity limitations compared to 10.2

percent for those between the ages of 15 to 24 and 52.4 percent among those aged 65 and over.

About 32.3 percent of them are in their prime working-age and 35.9 percent are 65 years of age

and over. On average, about 17.1 percent of immigrants between the ages of 15 and 64 reported

having activity limitations.

Table 6.16: No. of Immigrants with daily activity and/or activity limitation

Age Group No. of Persons Percentage with Disability


15 to 24 years 30,555 10.2

25 to 34 years 44,790 10.1

35 to 44 years 77,330 12.3

45 to 54 years 133,450 18.9

55 to 64 years 173,110 28.8



15 to 64 years 459,240 17.1

Total 872,810 24.2

8.1 8.2

21.9

9.8 7.2

6.2 6.4 6.3

11.8 11.9

24.1

14.7

10.7 8.3 7.4 7.5

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 6.12: Unemployment Rate by Family Structure (%)


127



Immigrants who reported being limited at home and in other activities have the lowest participation

rate. On average, the participation rate among immigrants aged 15 and over who reported having

difficulty with daily activity and/or activity limitations equaled 36.9 percent compared to 69.7

percent for immigrants without a disability.

Table 6.17: Participation Rate of Immigrants with Activity Limitations

Age Group

No

Difficulty

Difficulty with daily activities and/or

activity limitation in activities

Limited at

home only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 69.7 36.9 23.2 10.6

15 to 64 years 78.0 61.8 46.1 28.7

15 to 24 years 50.9 45.5 40.9 31.8

25 to 34 years 80.6 72.7 55.9 48.0

35 to 44 years 85.4 73.5 55.5 43.5

45 to 54 years 87.1 69.4 54.6 33.2

55 to 64 years 70.7 50.8 37.3 23.1

65 years & over 17.9 8.2 7.1 3.7

Table 6.18 shows the employment rate of immigrants with disabilities. The employment rate of

persons with disabilities is much lower than that for those without a disability. Overall, the



a disability. Those who are limited at home and in other activities have the lowest employment

rates.

Table 6.18: Employment Rate of Immigrants with Activity Limitations

Age Group

No

Difficulty



Limited at

home only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 64.0 33.0 20.0 8.9

15 to 64 years 71.5 55.2 39.5 23.8

15 to 24 years 39.9 35.0 30.8 22.7

25 to 34 years 72.8 63.5 45.0 37.3

35 to 44 years 79.3 65.4 46.7 35.3

45 to 54 years 81.8 63.1 47.8 27.7

55 to 64 years 66.4 45.9 32.2 19.5

65 years & over 16.8 7.5 6.3 3.2



unemployment rates in all age groups. Overall, the unemployment rate among persons aged 15

128

and over who reported having difficulty with daily activity and/or activity limitations equaled 10.6

percent compared to 8.2 percent for those without a disability. Individuals aged 15 to 24 with

activity limitations have the highest unemployment rates followed by those aged 25 to 34 years.


Age Group

No

Difficulty



Limited at

home only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 8.2 10.6 13.8 16.1

15 to 64 years 8.3 10.8 14.3 16.9

15 to 24 years 21.7 23.2 23.5 26.2

25 to 34 years 9.7 12.7 19.5 22.3

35 to 44 years 7.2 10.9 15.7 18.7

45 to 54 years 6.1 9.1 12.5 16.4

55 to 64 years 6.1 9.7 13.8 15.7

65 years & over 5.8 9.1 11.7 13.6

Socio-Economic Profile of Persons Receiving Social Assistance

The sample used in this part of the study includes immigrants who receive transfer payments and

are between the ages of 25 and 64 who were not employed, were members of a low-income family

and received more than $1000 in transfer payments in 2010.



Age Group Men Women

25 to 29 years 7.8 10.2

30 to 34 years 7.3 9.3

35 to 39 years 9.9 14.0

40 to 44 years 14.0 12.2

45 to 49 years 16.2 15.7

50 to 54 years 13.3 12.8

55 to 59 years 14.2 11.7

60 to 64 years 17.5 14.1

Total 100.0 100.0

About 68.4 percent of low income immigrant men are in their prime working-age (25-54) group.

Similarly, 74.2 percent of low income immigrant women are in their prime working-age group.

The rest or 31.6 and 25.8 percent of men and women respectively are between the ages of 55 and

64.



129

Highest Level of Educational Attainment Men (%) Women (%)






(3 months to less than 1 year) 1.05 3.47


(1 to 2 years) 5.07 7.71


(more than 2 years) 6.31 6.82







About 43.7 percent of low income immigrant men and 52.7 percent of low income immigrant

women have up to a high school diploma. About 11.4 percent of men and 14.5 percent of women

have a 1 to 3 year college diploma. The incidence of poverty is much higher among those with a

1 to 3 year college diploma than those with a 3 months to 1 year college diploma. About 29.4

percent of men and 17.3 percent of women with a bachelor’s degree or higher are also among the

transfer payment recipients. Overall, about 56.3 percent of low income men and 47.3 percent of

low income women receiving transfer payments have a post-secondary diploma or degree. From

this group, about 61.9 percent of men and 49.5 percent of women have their post-secondary

credentials from outside Canada.

Table 6.22 shows the marital status of low income immigrants in the sample.

Table 6.22: Marital Status of Transfer Payment Recipient

Marital Status Men (%) Women (%)







Total 100.0 100.0

About 20.9 percent of men and 25.8 percent of women are single and were never married. The

incidence of poverty is lower among separated, divorced and widowed men compared to separated,

130

divorced and widowed women. Also, the data shows that about 4.2 percent of low income men are





When Last Worked Men (%) Women (%)





Total 100.0 100.0

About 18.5 percent of low income immigrant men and 25.6 percent of low-income immigrant

women have never worked. On the other hand, 54.6 percent of men and 56.4 percent of women

worked before 2010. The rest worked in 2010 and 2011. About 29.5 percent of men and 43.0

percent of women who never worked do not have a high school diploma while 24.5 percent of men

and 25.1 percent of women who never worked have a high school diploma. From those who never

worked, 19.0 percent of immigrant men and 20.0 percent of immigrant women are between the

ages of 25 to 34; 23.7 percent of men and 26.0 percent of women are between 35 and 44; 30.7

percent of men and 30.4 percent of women are between 45 and 54 and the rest are between 55 and

64 years of age.

131

PART VII: GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG THE

VISIBLE MINORITY POPULATION IN ONTARIO

Visible minority, according to Statistics Canada, refers to persons, other than Aboriginal peoples,

who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour. The visible minority population consists

mainly of the following groups: Chinese, South Asian, Black, Arab, West Asian, Filipino,

Southeast Asian, Latin American, Japanese and Korean.43

Figure 7.1 shows the distribution of the visible minority population by degree of rurality in Ontario

in 2011.

Figure 7.1 shows that about 98.3 percent of Ontario’s visible minority population lives in CMAs,

1.0 percent lives in CAs and the rest or 0.7 percent lives in rural and small town areas with different

degrees of rurality. Very few live in remote rural areas.

In what follows we examine the labour market performance of Ontario’s visible minority

population and pay special attention to the degree of rurality. We examine whether the average

labour force participation, employment and unemployment rates vary by degree of rurality, family

structure, age, education or disability. We also examine various socio-economic characteristics of

those non-working, low-income persons who are receiving government assistance.


Table 7.1 and Figure 7.2 shows the participation rate in urban and rural Ontario by age and degree

of rurality. The participation rate of the visible minority population aged 15 and over equals 65.9

percent compared to the provincial average of 65.5 percent. The participation rate for the

population aged 15 to 64 equals 71.8 percent compared to the provincial average of 76.0 percent.

In general, the participation rate among the visible minority population increases as the degree of

43 http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/concepts/definitions/minority01

3,279,565 3,224,635

9,560 24,475 10,720 7,475 2,675 25 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000


Strong MIZ ModerateMIZ

Weak MIZ No MIZ

Figure 7.1: Visible Minority Population by Region

132

rurality rises. It reaches as high as 72.7 percent for those 15 years of age and over in rural areas

with a weak link to urban centres. This is much higher than the provincial average of 61.7 percent

in weak MIZ areas. The participation rate is lowest for those aged 65 and over (13.8%) and highest

for those aged 35 to 44 years (82.8%).

Table 7.1: Participation Rate among Visible Minority Population in Ontario (%)

Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years &over 65.9 65.8 68.0 66.3 67.6 69.5 72.7

15 to 64 years 71.8 71.7 74.0 72.2 73.6 76.1 77.3

15 to 24 years 45.8 45.7 56.9 53.5 47.2 62.2 52.2

25 to 34 years 79.7 79.7 78.0 79.9 82.8 83.8 86.3

35 to 44 years 82.8 82.8 85.3 80.3 84.2 80.7 86.7

45 to 54 years 82.3 82.3 84.4 81.6 86.5 84.4 79.6

55 to 64 years 65.6 65.6 64.7 64.4 66.3 68.7 80.0

65 years & over 13.8 13.7 17.1 15.3 17.4 20.1 38.8

Tables 7.2 and 7.3 show the labour force participation rate of men and women by age and

geography in 2011. The participation rate for men rises as the degree of rurality increases. It ranges

from a low of 70.8 percent in CMAs to 77.2 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres.

In general, the participation rate among the visible minority population is slightly higher than the

provincial average in all regions (Figure 7.3).

The participation rate for women also rises as the degree of rurality increases. It is lowest in CMAs

(61.3%) and rises to 68.6 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centers. Overall, the

participation rate among women in CAs and rural areas is higher than the provincial average

(Figure 7.4). In general, the participation rate for men is much greater than the rate for women in

urban as well as rural areas. On average, the gap between the participation rate of men and women

65.9 65.8

68.0

66.3

67.6

69.5

72.7

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

Total CMA CA (tracted) CA (untracted) Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ

Figure 7.2: Participation Rate by Geography (%)

133

is about 9.5 percent. The gap is smallest in rural areas with a strong link to urban centres (5.1%)

and largest in untracted CAs (11.2%).


Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 70.8 70.8 72.0 72.0 70.2 73.8 77.2

15 to 64 years 76.4 76.4 77.8 78.0 76.8 79.7 82.7

15 to 24 years 44.7 44.6 53.8 53.6 47.8 60.4 52.9

25 to 34 years 86.1 86.1 83.2 90.6 88.4 89.7 96.2

35 to 44 years 90.6 90.6 92.2 86.1 89.5 89.4 94.4

45 to 54 years 88.4 88.4 92.0 87.1 91.8 89.2 88.1

55 to 64 years 75.1 75.1 79.3 73.8 76.0 75.6 83.3

65 years & over 18.9 18.8 26.0 19.9 21.1 26.2 50.0


Age Group Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 61.4 61.3 63.9 60.7 65.1 65.0 68.6

15 to 64 years 67.5 67.5 70.2 66.6 70.9 72.4 73.3

15 to 24 years 47.0 46.9 61.2 53.3 46.5 66.1 57.6

25 to 34 years 74.3 74.3 73.6 69.6 79.8 78.8 80.9

35 to 44 years 76.3 76.2 79.0 74.9 80.2 72.9 78.7

45 to 54 years 76.7 76.7 75.9 76.2 82.1 78.2 71.2

55 to 64 years 56.9 56.9 50.0 55.7 54.5 64.8 75.0

65 years & over 9.6 9.6 9.5 10.9 15.7 15.3 25.0

70.8 70.8 72.0 72.0 70.2 73.8 77.2

69.9 70.964.1 65.4 70.4

63.6 65.4

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0


Figure 7.3: Participation Rate among Men(%)

Visible Minority Men Provincial Average (Men)

134


Table 7.4 shows the average employment rate among the visible minority population in Ontario

by age and geography in 2011. It varies from a low of 58.0 percent in untracted CAs to a high of

66.7 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres. As was the case for the participation

rate, the employment rate rises as the degree of rurality increases. It is lowest but has been rising

among those aged 65 and over. Overall, the employment rate (58.9%) is lower than the provincial

average in CMAs (66.5%) but is higher in CAs and rural areas. The employment gap reaches as

high as 10.2 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres.


Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 58.9 58.9 61.0 58.0 62.9 63.8 66.7

15 to 64 years 64.2 64.1 66.4 63.1 68.5 69.9 70.6

15 to 24 years 34.8 34.7 41.2 38.4 39.5 50.0 37.3

25 to 34 years 71.9 71.8 72.0 71.9 75.8 76.4 82.2

35 to 44 years 76.1 76.1 78.3 74.1 79.7 74.5 84.3

45 to 54 years 76.2 76.2 81.7 73.0 85.3 81.0 72.0

55 to 64 years 60.4 60.3 62.7 57.5 59.6 66.7 77.5

65 years & over 12.6 12.5 15.8 14.2 17.4 18.7 38.8

61.4 61.3 63.9 60.7 65.1 65.0

68.6

61.4 62.357.1 56.8

62.255.3 58.1

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


Figure 7.4: Participation Rate among Women

Visible Minority Women Provincial Average

135


Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 63.9 63.9 65.7 63.2 65.5 67.3 73.3

15 to 64 years 68.9 68.9 70.8 68.4 71.5 72.8 78.0

15 to 24 years 33.5 33.4 40.2 37.5 39.4 46.3 35.3

25 to 34 years 78.6 78.6 76.6 85.9 84.1 81.6 96.2

35 to 44 years 84.8 84.8 89.9 80.2 85.6 87.1 94.4

45 to 54 years 82.4 82.4 89.3 76.4 90.6 85.6 81.0

55 to 64 years 69.1 69.1 74.4 63.6 68.3 74.4 91.7

65 years &over 17.3 17.2 23.4 18.3 20.0 21.3 50.0

Tables 7.5 and 7.6 show the employment rates for men and women in Ontario by age and

geography in 2011. The employment rate for men ranged from a low of 63.2 percent in untracted

CAs to 73.3 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres. The provincial average in

rural areas with a weak link equals 59.3 percent. In general, the employment rate rises as the degree

of rurality increases. The employment rate of visible minority men is generally higher than the

provincial average in CAs and rural areas. The employment gap reaches as high as 14.0 percent in

rural areas with a weak link to urban centres. Also, it is of note that the employment rate among

visible minority men aged 65 and over is generally higher than the provincial average. The

employment gap reaches as high as 33.2 percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres.

For women, the employment rate varies from a low of 52.8 percent in untracted CAs to 61.5

percent in rural areas with a weak link to urban centres. The employment rate rises as the degree

of rurality increases. In general, the employment rate for visible minority women is higher than

the provincial average in CAs and rural areas. The employment gap reaches as high as 8.9 percent

in rural areas with a moderate link to urban centres. Similar to men, the employment rate among

women is higher among those aged 65 and over living in CAs and rural areas.


Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 54.4 54.4 56.3 52.8 60.5 60.1 61.5

15 to 64 years 59.8 59.8 61.9 57.8 65.9 66.8 65.5

15 to 24 years 36.2 36.1 42.6 38.9 39.6 58.1 36.4

25 to 34 years 66.2 66.2 67.9 58.2 71.3 71.2 74.5

35 to 44 years 68.8 68.7 68.8 68.2 75.7 65.4 74.5

45 to 54 years 70.4 70.4 75.0 69.7 79.6 75.2 59.6

55 to 64 years 52.3 52.3 50.0 51.9 51.1 61.1 75.0

65 years & over 8.7 8.6 8.1 9.9 14.5 13.9 25.0

136

In general, the employment rate is highest for men compared to women (Figure 7.5). The gap

between the employment rate of visible minority men and women averages about 4.5 percent and

reaches as high as 5.2 percent in untracted CAs.


Table 7.7 shows the unemployment rate among the visible minority population in Ontario by age

and geography in 2011. The rate is lowest in rural areas (6.8%) having a strong link to urban

centres and reaches as high as 12.6 percent in untracted CAs. Overall, the unemployment rate

among visible minorities is higher than the provincial average. It equals 10.5 percent for those

aged 15 and over compared to the provincial average of 8.3 percent. The unemployment rates in

rural areas are lower than in urban centres.


Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 10.5 10.5 10.2 12.6 6.8 8.2 7.8

15 to 64 years 10.6 10.6 10.2 12.7 7.0 8.3 8.3

15 to 24 years 24.1 24.0 27.5 28.3 17.0 19.7 31.4

25 to 34 years 9.9 9.9 8.2 10.0 8.5 8.8 4.8

35 to 44 years 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.6 5.0 7.7 4.2

45 to 54 years 7.5 7.5 3.2 10.4 1.7 4.5 10.8

55 to 64 years 8.0 8.0 4.0 10.4 9.4 3.0 -

65 years & over 8.9 9.0 7.7 5.2 - 7.4 -

Tables 7.8 and 7.9 show the unemployment rate among visible minority men and women by age

and geography in Ontario in 2011. The unemployment rate is lowest for men living in rural areas

with a weak link to urban centers and highest for those residing in CMAs. The unemployment rate

is lowest for men aged 35 to 44 and highest for those aged 15 to 24. The average unemployment

58.9 58.9 61.0 58.0

62.9 63.8 66.7

54.4 54.4 56.3 52.8

60.5 60.1 61.5

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


Figure 7.5: Employment Rate By Sex (%)

Men Women

137

rate for men equals 9.7 percent for men compared to the provincial average of 8.3 percent. In

general, the unemployment rate for men is higher than the provincial average for all age groups.

Table 7.8: Unemployment Rate for Men by Age and Degree of Rurality in Ontario in 2011

Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years & over 9.7 9.7 8.9 12.2 6.5 8.6 5.8

15 to 64 years 9.8 9.8 9.0 12.4 6.9 8.5 5.6

15 to 24 years 25.1 25.1 25.3 29.0 18.6 22.2 -

25 to 34 years 8.7 8.7 7.9 5.6 - 9.0 -

35 to 44 years 6.4 6.4 2.5 6.9 4.4 - -

45 to 54 years 6.8 6.8 3.9 12.6 - 4.0 -

55 to 64 years 7.9 7.9 6.2 13.9 - - -

65 years & over 8.4 8.5 - 5.4 - 18.8 -

Table 7.9: Unemployment Rate for Women by Age and Degree of Rurality in Ontario in 2011

Total CMA

CA

(tracted)

CA

(untracted)

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

15 years and over 11.4 11.4 11.8 12.9 7.0 7.5 10.3

15 to 64 years 11.4 11.4 11.8 13.1 7.0 8.0 10.6

15 to 24 years 23.0 23.0 30.4 27.0 13.4 12.2 26.3

25 to 34 years 11.0 11.0 7.7 15.9 10.7 8.5 7.9

35 to 44 years 9.8 9.8 12.9 8.6 5.6 11.5 5.4

45 to 54 years 8.2 8.3 - 7.7 3.0 3.8 -

55 to 64 years 8.1 8.1 - 6.9 - 2.9 -

65 years and over 9.7 9.8 - - - - -

The average unemployment rate for visible minority women 15 years of age and over equals 11.4

percent compared to the provincial average of 8.3 percent. Overall, the unemployment rate among

visible minority women is higher than the provincial average. The unemployment rate is lower in

rural areas. This has also been the case for all women in Ontario. The unemployment gap between

visible minority women and the provincial average reaches its high in tracted CAs (3.5%).


Table 7.10 shows the percentage distribution of visible minority individuals aged 15 years and

over in Ontario by highest level of education and geography in 2011.

138

Table 7.10: Visible Minority Population 15 years and over by Highest Level of

Educational Achievement in 2011

Highest Level of Educational Attainment Total CMA

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ


High school diploma or equivalency certificate 24.9 24.9 28.0 24.4 22.9

Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma 4.8 4.7 6.7 5.5 6.7

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or

diploma 15.0 15.0 20.4 17.5 14.5

University certificate or diploma below bachelor level 7.0 7.1 5.0 5.8 4.9

Total University certificate, diploma or degree at bachelor

level or above 31.3 31.4 22.0 27.4 39.2

Total Percentage 100 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Total Number 2,576,780 2,535,955 7,870 5,595 2,030

The level of educational attainment of the visible minority population is higher than the provincial

average. About 31.3 percent of those aged 15 and over has a university degree compared to the

provincial average of 23.4 percent. On the other hand, only 15.0 percent of the visible minority

population has a college diploma compared to the provincial average of 19.8 percent. About 17.1

percent of the visible minority population has no certificate or diploma compared to the provincial

average of 18.7 percent.

Table 7.11 shows the participation rate by highest level of educational attainment by geography in

2011.


Highest Level of Educational Attainment Total CMA

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ



Apprenticeship or trades certificate/diploma 71.5 71.5 78.1 75.4 77.8

College certificate or diploma 77.0 77.1 78.5 69.4 84.7


level 74.4 74.4 75.9 73.8 76.2


bachelor level or above 79.5 79.5 82.1 79.2 73.6


diploma to 79.5 percent for those with a university degree. The provincial average participation

rate for persons with a university degree is 79.1 percent. Visible minority individuals with a trade

certificate have a higher participation rate (77.0%) compared to the provincial average of 65.7

percent. In addition to geography, the place where the post-secondary education is attained also

affects labour market performance. About 52.9 percent of the visible minority individuals aged 15

and over have their post-secondary credentials from inside Canada and the rest are from outside

139

Canada. Those with Canadian credentials have a participation rate of 81.8 percent compared to

72.9 percent for those whose credentials are from outside Canada.


rurality. For those with or without a high school diploma, the employment rate rises as the degree

of rurality increases. The same is true for those with a trade certificate.

It shows that irrespective of the degree of rurality, the employment rate rises as the level of

education increases. Persons residing in rural areas with a strong link to urban centers have the

highest employment rates for all levels of educational attainment. Except for those with a trade

certificate, visible minorities have a slightly lower employment rate than the provincial average

(Figure 7.6).

Table 7.12: Employment Rate by Highest Level of Educational Attainment & Geography

Total CMA

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ



Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma 64.8 64.8 73.3 73.8 77.8

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate

or diploma 70.4 70.4 72.9 61.7 79.7


level 68.0 68.0 72.2 72.3 66.7



29.4

50.8

64.8 70.4

73.0

31.2

57.661

72.2 74.6

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


Apprenticeshipor trades



Visible Minorities Provincial Average

140

Visible minorities with credentials from Canada have an employment rate of 75.0 percent

compared to 66.6 percent for those with credentials from outside Canada. The provincial average

employment rate for persons with post-secondary credentials equals 71.2 percent.


of rurality. The unemployment rate is highest for persons without a high school diploma (16.3%)

followed by those with a high school diploma (14.7%). In general, the unemployment rate among

the visible minority population is higher than the provincial average (Figure 7.7).


Total CMA

Strong

MIZ

Moderate

MIZ

Weak

MIZ

No certificate, diploma or degree 16.3 16.3 13.6 14.5 -


Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma 9.4 9.4 6.1 - -

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate

or diploma 8.7 8.6 6.7 10.3 6.0


level 8.6 8.6 - - -



Those with post-secondary credentials from Canada have an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent

compared to 8.6 percent for those with their credentials from outside Canada. The average

provincial unemployment rate for those with post-secondary credentials equals 6.2 percent.

16.3 14.7

9.4 8.7 8.1

14.3

10.9

7.26.3 5.7

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0





Visible Minorities Provincial Average

141


Table 7.14 shows the age distribution of visible minority couple and lone-parent families in

Ontario. Most of the couple families (21.6%) are between the ages of 35 and 44 followed by those

in the 45-54 age category (19.9%). On the other hand, the majority of the lone-parent families

(32.1%) are between the ages of 15 and 24 years. About 13.5 percent of all economic families are

lone-parent families. Overall, about 59.4 percent of the couple families and 52.4 percent of lone-

parent families are in their prime working-age (25-54).


Age Category Couple Families Lone Families

15 to 64 years 90.0 93.4

15 to 24 years 18.1 32.1

25 to 34 years 17.9 18.9

35 to 44 years 21.6 16.4

45 to 54 years 19.9 17.1

55 to 64 years 12.5 8.8


Total Number 15 years & over 1,900,740 308,050

Figure 7.8 shows the participation rate of visible minority families by family structure and age

group in Ontario. The participation rate among the lone-parent families is lower than the rate

among the couple families in all age classes. Overall, the participation gap for those aged 15 to 64

is 5.4 percent.

66.5 72.4

45.7

79.0 82.9 83.4

65.7

14.3

61.1 64.5

44.6

77.0 76.8 76.0

64.8

13.0

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 7.8: Participation Rate by Family Status (%)

Couple Families Lone Families

142

Figure 7.9 shows the employment rate by family structure and age group. The employment rate

among lone-parent families is lower than those among couple families. The employment gap for

persons aged 15 and over equals 7.9 percent. The gap is at its highest level of 10.2 percent for

those aged 15 to 64 and is relatively low for those aged 55 and over. The employment rate for

visible minority couples equals 59.9 percent compared to the provincial average of 62.4 percent.

The employment rate for lone-parent families equals 52.0 percent compared to the provincial

average of 55.0 percent.

Figure 7.10 shows the unemployment rate by family structure and age group. Except for those

aged 55 to 64, the unemployment rate is higher for lone-parent families irrespective of their age.

The unemployment gap reaches as high as 4.5 percent for those between the ages of 25 and 34

followed by those aged 35 to 24 (3.5%). Overall, the unemployment gap for those between the

ages of 15 to 64 equals 4.9 percent.

59.9 65.1

34.8

71.4 76.5 77.5

60.7

13.1

52.0 54.9

32.7

66.1 68.1 68.9

59.9

11.7

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 7.9: Employment Rate by Family Status (%)


10.0 10.0

23.8

9.7 7.7 7.1 7.7 8.3

14.8 14.9

26.8

14.2 11.3

9.3 7.6

10.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

15 yearsand over

15 to 64years

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Figure 7.10: Unemployment Rate by Economic Family Status (%)


143

The unemployment rate is generally higher among visible minority families. It equals 10.0 percent

for visible minority couple families aged 15 years and over compared to the provincial average of

7.6 percent. The unemployment rate equals 14.8 percent for visible minority lone-parent families

compared to the provincial average of 13.2 percent.

Labour Market Performance of Visible Minority Persons with Disabilities

Overall, about 16.8 percent of visible minority individuals in Ontario reported having difficulty

with daily activity and/or having activity limitations in 2011. Table 7.15 shows their age

distribution. In general, activity limitation rises with age. Only 8.5 percent of individuals under the

age of 15 reported having activity limitations compared to 51.4 percent of visible minority

individuals aged 65 and over. About 64.9 percent of individuals who reported having activity

limitations are between the ages of 15 and 64. About 39.2 percent of them are in their prime

working-age and 24.4 percent are 65 years and over.


Age Group No. of Persons with Disability Percentage of Total Population



15 to 64 years 358,175 15.5

15 to 24 years 52,770 10.5

25 to 34 years 51,955 10.5

35 to 44 years 69,095 13.0

45 to 54 years 95,555 19.8

55 to 64 years 88,795 29.1


Total Number 552,245 16.8




rates followed by those who reported having difficulty at home only. Overall, the participation rate

among individuals aged 15 and over who reported having difficulty with daily activity and/or

activity limitations equaled 48.0 percent compared to 70.2 percent for those without a disability.

In general, the participation rate among visible minorities with disability has been higher than the

provincial average of those who reported having activity limitation (Figure 7.11).

144


Age Group No

Difficulty



Limited at

home only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years &over 70.2 48.0 32.6 15.8

15 to 64 years 73.5 62.5 49.1 32.5

15 to 24 years 46.4 40.9 41.7 37.5

25 to 34 years 80.6 72.4 59.1 48.1

35 to 44 years 84.3 73.3 54.5 42.0

45 to 54 years 85.4 70.2 54.9 33.9

55 to 64 years 70.9 53.0 40.3 26.1

65 years & over 18.6 9.2 8.1 4.5

Table 7.17 shows the employment rate of visible minority individuals with disabilities. The

employment rate of persons with disabilities is much lower than that for those without a disability.

Overall, the employment rate among persons aged 15 and over who reported having difficulty with

daily activity and/or activity limitations equaled 42.0 percent compared to 63.0 percent for those

without a disability. On the other hand, the employment rate of visible minority individuals who

reported having activity limitation is higher than the provincial average (Figure 7.12).

70.2

48.0

32.6

15.8

73.3

40.3

23.8

13.7

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

No Difficulty Difficulty with dailyactivity

Limited at home only Limited at home and inother activities

Figure 7.11: Participation Rate for Pesons 15 years and Over (%)

Visible Minority Provincial Average

145

Table 7.17: Employment Rate of Persons with Activity Limitations (%)

Table 7.18 shows the unemployment rate among visible minorities who reported having activity




12.4 percent compared to 10.2 percent for those without a disability. In general, the unemployment

rate among visible minorities is higher than the provincial average (Figure 7.13).

63.0

42.0

27.3

12.8

67.5

36.1

20.5

11.7

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

No Difficulty Difficulty with daily activity Limited at home only Limited at home and inother activities

Figure 7.12: Employment Rate for Persons 15 years and Over (%)


Age Group

No

Difficulty



Limited at

school/work only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 63.0 42.0 27.3 12.8

15 to 64 years 65.9 54.8 41.1 26.1

15 to 24 years 35.3 30.0 29.9 25.5

25 to 34 years 72.8 63.4 45.8 37.3

35 to 44 years 77.8 65.0 44.8 33.0

45 to 54 years 79.4 63.3 47.6 27.9

55 to 64 years 65.8 47.3 34.6 21.2

65 years & over 17.3 8.1 6.7 3.7

146

Table 7.18: Unemployment Rate of Persons with Activity Limitations (%)

No Difficulty



Limited in other

activities only

Limited at home and

in other activities

15 years & over 10.2 12.4 16.3 19.4

15 to 64 years 10.3 12.4 16.2 19.7

15 to 24 years 23.8 26.7 27.8 30.9

25 to 34 years 9.6 12.4 22.2 22.3

35 to 44 years 7.7 11.3 18.0 21.6

45 to 54 years 7.0 9.7 13.4 17.5

55 to 64 years 7.1 10.8 13.9 18.9

65 years & over 7.3 12.1 17.3 18.1

Socio-Economic Profile of Visible Minorities Receiving Government Assistance

The sample used in this part of the study includes visible minorities who receive transfer payments

and are between the ages of 25 and 64 and were not employed, were members of a low-income

family and received more than $1000 in transfer payments in 2010.



Age Group Men (%) Women (%)

25 to 29 years 12.5 13.3

30 to 34 years 9.3 12.8

35 to 39 years 12.6 15.3

40 to 44 years 15.0 13.4

45 to 49 years 16.4 15.7

50 to 54 years 12.3 11.3

10.2 12.4

16.3

19.4

7.9

10.4

13.614.7

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

No Difficulty Difficulty with dailyactivity

Limited at home only Limited at home and inother activities

Figure 7.13: Unemployment Rate for Pesons 15 years and Over (%)


147

55 to 59 years 10.9 9.5

60 to 64 years 11.0 8.9

Total 100.0 100.0

About 78.1 percent of visible minority low income men are in their prime working-age (25-54)

group. Similarly, 81.6 percent of visible minority women are in their prime working-age group.

The rest or 21.9 and 18.4 percent of men and women respectively are between the ages of 55 and

64.


Table 7.20: Low Income Visible Minority by Highest Level of Educational Attainment

Highest Level of Educational Attainment Men (%) Women (%)





College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (3

months to less than 1 year) 0.7 3.0

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (1 to 2

years) 4.5 7.6

College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma (more

than 2 years) 5.2 6.0







Total 100.0 100.0

About 43.2 percent of visible minority men and 53.4 percent of women have up to a high school

diploma. About 9.6 percent of men and 13.7 percent of women have a 1 to 3 year college diploma.

The incidence of poverty is much higher among those with a 1 to 3 year college diploma than those

with a 3 months to 1 year college diploma. About 33.6 percent of men and 17.0 percent of women

with a bachelor’s degree or higher are also among the transfer payment recipients. Overall, about

56.8 percent of low income men and 46.6 percent of low income women receiving transfer

payments have a post-secondary diploma or degree. From this group, about 64.9 percent of men

and 48.3 percent of women have their post-secondary credentials from outside Canada.

Table 7.21 shows the marital status of low income visible minority men and women in the sample.

148


Men (%) Women (%)







About 20.9 percent of men and 25.8 percent of women are single and have never married. The

incidence of poverty is lower among separated, divorced and widowed men compared to separated,

divorced and widowed women. Also, the data shows that about 3.6 percent of low income men are





When Last Worked Men (%) Women (%)





About 18.5 percent of low income visible minority men and 25.6 percent of low-income visible

minority women never worked. On the other hand, 54.6 percent of men and 56.4 percent of women

worked before 2010. The rest worked in 2010 and 2011. About 27.6 percent of men and 41.2

percent of women who never worked do not have a high school diploma while 25.4 percent of men

and 26.4 percent of women who never worked have a high school diploma. From those who never

worked, 27.1 percent of men and 24.5 percent of women are between the ages of 25 to 34, roughly

the same percentage are between the ages of 35 to 44 and 45 to 54 and about 20.0 percent are

between 55 and 64 years of age.

149

PART VIII: CONCLUDING REMARKS

Most studies focus on employment and earnings of the working age population and examine the

factors influencing their earnings and employment. Those factors include the individual’s age as a

proxy for experience, education as a proxy for their human capital content, field of study, gender,

place where their post-secondary credentials were obtained, family structure, etc. While these

factors influence the likelihood of employment and earnings, they also affect the probability of

persons being unemployed, underemployed as well as the likelihood of poverty and joblessness.

The focus of the present study has been on the latter group, namely those who are unemployed,

underemployed or marginally attached to the labour force as well as those who are on social

assistance. The aim of the report has not been to propose a quick solution to the problem of

unemployment and underemployment that has been evolving over the past many decades, but to

provide baseline information on various demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the

individuals in the latter group. This information would hopefully lead into more directed research

that could result in policies that improve job opportunities for Ontarians.

The present study reveals that the likelihood of unemployment is higher than the provincial

average for the following groups:

1. Persons aged 15 to 24;

2. Persons living in relatively remote rural areas where most of the untapped resources are;

3. Persons with high school graduation or less;

4. Lone-parent families;

5. Persons with activity limitation;

6. Aboriginal population with less than university education;

7. Immigrants with foreign credentials;

8. Visible minorities.

In the 1960s and 1970s, the majority of unemployed persons were the less educated people. For

example, in 1976, 46.9 percent of unemployed men and 36.7 percent of unemployed women did

not have a high school diploma. In 2016, 46.5 percent of unemployed men and 57.6 percent of

unemployed women have a college diploma or university degree. In other words, while post-

secondary education reduces the likelihood of unemployment, it no longer guarantees a job.

Globalization and outsourcing of jobs to low-wage jurisdictions have played an important role in

the declining job opportunities for Ontarians. In addition, Ontario has also faced competitive

challenges in some traditional labour- or energy-intensive industries. The emergence of shale gas

production has helped to contain energy costs. Some of these jurisdictions are now seeing a

resurgence in manufacturing activity.44 Also, in recent years, Ontario exporters have also faced

significant challenges (especially from China) in their most important market, the United States.

In fact, the level of Ontario exports to the United States declined from $153 billion in 2003 to $129

44 Ministry of Finance, “Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy”, 2014. The high cost of energy has been a

major contributing factor to the decline of forestry and mining in Ontario. See B. Moazzami, “An Economic Impact

Analysis of the Northwestern Ontario Forest Sector”, 2006. Prepared for Northwestern Ontario Forest Council.

150

billion in 2013.45 During the same period, Ontario’s share of U.S. merchandise imports fell from

8.7 percent to 5.5 percent.46 The provincial economy has faced serious challenges in recent

decades. The pace of economic growth has declined. According to the Ministry of Finance, the

real GDP growth equaled 2.6 percent during 1982-2015 and is expected to decline to 2.0 percent

until 2040. Labour productivity is expected to decline from its current 1.2 percent to 1.0 percent

during 2016-2020. Employment growth equaled 1.4 percent per year during 1982-2015, but is

expected to decline to 0.8 percent during 2020-2040.47

According to the Jobs & Prosperity Council, many Ontario manufacturers under-invest in

productivity-enhancing machinery and equipment relative to their peers in the other G7 countries.

They report that: “A significant gap in new capital expenditures has persisted since 2005. In 2010,

these expenditures totaled almost $11,000 per employee in the U.S., compared to approximately

$8,500 in Ontario. By 2011, annual total investment in (non-residential) fixed assets was over

$16,000 per employee in the U.S., compared to just over $9,000 in Ontario. Ontario manufacturers

and their workers are at a significant productivity disadvantage; they are not competing with the

same quality of machinery, hardware or software as their competitors.”48

In addition, the high cost of energy has been an impediment to the growth and development of

forestry and mining sectors in the province. There is a need to address the existing low productivity

and high cost of operation in the province if we are to enhance job opportunities in the region.

The fact that many of the unemployed and underemployed individuals have post-secondary

education raises the question of whether the return to investment in education is positive or not.

Figure 8.1 shows the estimated returns to investment in education.49

45 Ministry of Finance, “Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy”, 2014. 46 Ibid. 47 Ministry of Finance, “Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy”, 2017. 48 Jobs & Prosperity Council, Advantage Ontario, 2012. 49 The estimates were done as a part of the study for Essential Skills Ontario. See B. Moazzami, “Strengthening Rural Canada: The Current and Future State of Rural Ontario”, 2015.

18.4

33.842.8

73.5

29.918.3

63.9

120.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

High School Trade College University

Figure 8.1: Rates of Return to Schooling (%)

Men Women

151

Figure 8.1 shows that the earnings premium or returns to investment in education are much higher

for women than men as compared to the reference group who are those without a high school

diploma.50 The figure shows that completing high school increases the earnings of men and women

by 18.4 and 29.9 percent, respectively. About 12.5 to 23.5 percent of the increased earnings results

from higher wages. The rest are due to working more weeks per year. Similarly, compared to the

reference group, returns to a trade certificate for men and women equals 33.8 and 18.3 percent

respectively. The earnings premium to men and women with a college degree equals 42.8 and 63.9

percent respectively. Finally, a university degree results in a 73.5 and 120.8 percent rise in earnings

relative to the reference group for men and women respectively. In this case, about 88.0 to 92.8

percent of the increased earnings are due to higher weekly wages. The rest are the result of working

more weeks per year. The above results also hold for the Francophone, Aboriginal, immigrant and

visible minority populations. Examination of the data also reveals that there are differences in the

rates of return to different fields of post-secondary education.

Figure 8.1 shows that the return to trade education is relatively low especially for women. Statistics

Canada reports that the apprenticeship system in Canada is different from other countries where

the apprenticeship training is often integrated into the secondary education system. The fact that

we have 13 different apprenticeship systems makes it difficult for apprentices to easily cross

jurisdiction.51 The report also states that “the share of people enrolled in apprenticeship programs

in Canada is relatively small compared with other countries…Furthermore, only about half of

Canadian apprentices complete their programs.”52

The present study shows that the unemployment rates are particularly high among two segments

of the provincial population. The first group is the Aboriginal population. They are growing much

faster than the general population. They comprise a significant share of the labour force in northern

regions of Ontario.53 The study shows that 31.2 percent of the Aboriginal population aged 15 and

over do not have a high school diploma. Also, 25.6 percent of them have a high school diploma as

their highest level of schooling. Only 9.1 percent have a university degree. Those with a university

degree have a higher participation and employment rate and a much lower unemployment rate.

Thus, obtaining a post-secondary education appears to represent one approach to reducing the

unemployment rate among the Aboriginal population. However, to ensure success, one needs to

improve the quality of education at the primary and secondary levels. People with disabilities

represent the second group. In general, they represent an untapped labour pool. As we saw in this

report, the employment rate for people with disabilities in Ontario equaled 36.1 percent compared

to 67.5 percent for those without a disability. Also, the unemployment rate among people with

disabilities equals 10.4 percent compared to 7.9 percent for those without a disability. The Ministry

of Finance report states that, “It is clear that while some people with disabilities have successfully

50 The higher earnings premium for women reflects the fact that a different set of occupations are available to men and women without a high school diploma. In general, the average earnings of men without a high school diploma is much higher than that for women. 51 Statistics Canada, “Jobs Report: The State of the Canadian Labour Market”, 2014. 52 Ibid. 53 See B. Moazzami, “It’s what you know (and where you can go): Human capital and agglomeration effects on demographic trends in Northern Ontario”, Northern Ontario Policy Institute, March 2015

152

integrated into Ontario’s labour market, many continue to face barriers to employment including

ableism and pervasive myths around the abilities of people with disabilities, employer

misperceptions and misinformation, procedural barriers in the recruitment process, and fragmented

employment and training services that do not always meet the diverse needs of people with

disabilities.”54

We saw in this report that high unemployment and underemployment rates have been the result of

structural changes in the economy. One solution to unemployment and underemployment is of

course to create more jobs. For that we need an economy with a growth rate of more than 2.0

percent per year. In order to achieve that goal, we need to improve our productivity which requires

investment in capital and also in better and more targeted education. Cost conditions and a better

regulatory environment are also integral to attracting the investment needed to enhance

productivity.

54 Ministry of Finance, “Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy”, 2017.

changing profile of unemployed, underemployed, marginally ...€¦ · who are overqualified for the...

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