chap 5-1 copyright ©2013 pearson education, inc. publishing as prentice hall chapter 5 discrete...
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Chap 5-1Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Chapter 5
Discrete Probability Distributions
Business Statistics: A First Course6th Edition
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Chap 5-2Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you learn: The properties of a probability distribution To compute the expected value and variance of a
probability distribution To compute probabilities from the binomial distribution How the binomial distribution can be used to solve
business problems
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Chap 5-3Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
DefinitionsRandom Variables
A random variable represents a possible numerical value from an uncertain event.
Discrete random variables produce outcomes that come from a counting process (e.g. number of classes you are taking).
Continuous random variables produce outcomes that come from a measurement (e.g. your annual salary, or your weight).
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Chap 5-4Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
DefinitionsRandom Variables
Random Variables
Discrete Random Variable
ContinuousRandom Variable
Ch. 5 Ch. 6
DefinitionsRandom Variables
Random Variables
Discrete Random Variable
ContinuousRandom Variable
Ch. 5 Ch. 6
DefinitionsRandom Variables
Random Variables
Discrete Random Variable
ContinuousRandom Variable
Ch. 5 Ch. 6
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Chap 5-5Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Discrete Random Variables
Can only assume a countable number of values
Examples:
Roll a die twiceLet X be the number of times 4 occurs (then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times)
Toss a coin 5 times. Let X be the number of heads
(then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)
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Chap 5-6Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Probability Distribution For A Discrete Random Variable
A probability distribution for a discrete random variable is a mutually exclusive listing of all possible numerical outcomes for that variable and a probability of occurrence associated with each outcome.
Number of Classes Taken Probability
2 0.20
3 0.40
4 0.24
5 0.16
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Chap 5-7Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let X = # heads.
T
T
Example of a Discrete Random Variable Probability Distribution
4 possible outcomes
T
T
H
H
H H
Probability Distribution
0 1 2 X
X Value Probability
0 1/4 = 0.25
1 2/4 = 0.50
2 1/4 = 0.25
0.50
0.25
Pro
bab
ility
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Chap 5-8Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Discrete Random VariablesExpected Value (Measuring Center)
Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete random variable (Weighted Average)
Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # of heads, compute expected value of X:
E(X) = ((0)(0.25) + (1)(0.50) + (2)(0.25)) = 1.0
X P(X=xi)
0 0.25
1 0.50
2 0.25
N
iii xXPx
1
)( E(X)
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Chap 5-9Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Variance of a discrete random variable
Standard Deviation of a discrete random variable
where:E(X) = Expected value of the discrete random variable X
xi = the ith outcome of XP(X=xi) = Probability of the ith occurrence of X
Discrete Random Variables Measuring Dispersion
N
1ii
2i
2 )xP(XE(X)][xσ
N
1ii
2i
2 )xP(XE(X)][xσσ
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Chap 5-10Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads, compute standard deviation (recall E(X) = 1)
Discrete Random Variables Measuring Dispersion
)xP(XE(X)]σ i2 ix
0.7070.50(0.25)1)(2(0.50)1)(1(0.25)1)(0σ 222
(continued)
Possible number of heads = 0, 1, or 2
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Chap 5-11Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Probability Distributions
Continuous Probability
Distributions
Binomial
Poisson
Probability Distributions
Discrete Probability
Distributions
Normal
Ch. 5 Ch. 6
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Chap 5-12Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Binomial Probability Distribution
A fixed number of observations, n e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; ten light bulbs taken from a warehouse
Each observation is categorized as to whether or not the “event of interest” occurred
e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not defective light bulb
Since these two categories are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
When the probability of the event of interest is represented as π, then the probability of the event of interest not occurring is 1 - π
Constant probability for the event of interest occurring (π) for each observation
Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we toss the coin
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Chap 5-13Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Binomial Probability Distribution(continued)
Observations are independent The outcome of one observation does not affect the
outcome of the other Two sampling methods deliver independence
Infinite population without replacement Finite population with replacement
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Chap 5-14Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Possible Applications for the Binomial Distribution
A manufacturing plant labels items as either defective or acceptable
A firm bidding for contracts will either get a contract or not
A marketing research firm receives survey responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will not”
New job applicants either accept the offer or reject it
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Chap 5-15Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
The Binomial DistributionCounting Techniques
Suppose the event of interest is obtaining heads on the toss of a fair coin. You are to toss the coin three times. In how many ways can you get two heads?
Possible ways: HHT, HTH, THH, so there are three ways you can getting two heads.
This situation is fairly simple. We need to be able to count the number of ways for more complicated situations.
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Chap 5-16Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Counting TechniquesRule of Combinations
The number of combinations of selecting X objects out of n objects is
x)!(nx!
n!Cxn
where:n! =(n)(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
X! = (X)(X - 1)(X - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1 (by definition)
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Chap 5-17Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Counting TechniquesRule of Combinations
How many possible 3 scoop combinations could you create at an ice cream parlor if you have 31 flavors to select from?
The total choices is n = 31, and we select X = 3.
4,4952953128!123
28!293031
3!28!
31!
3)!(313!
31!C331
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Chap 5-18Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
P(X=x|n,π) = probability of x events of interest in n trials, with the probability of
an “event of interest” being π for each trial
x = number of “events of interest” in sample, (x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n = sample size (number of trials or
observations) π = probability of “event of interest”
P(X=x |n,π)n
x! n xπ (1-π)x n x!
( )!=
--
Example: Flip a coin four times, let x = # heads:
n = 4
π = 0.5
1 - π = (1 - 0.5) = 0.5
X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
Binomial Distribution Formula
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Chap 5-19Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Example: Calculating a Binomial ProbabilityWhat is the probability of one success in five observations if the probability of an event of interest is 0.1?
x = 1, n = 5, and π = 0.1
0.32805
.9)(5)(0.1)(0
0.1)(1(0.1)1)!(51!
5!
)(1x)!(nx!
n!5,0.1)|1P(X
4
151
xnx
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Chap 5-20Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
The Binomial DistributionExample
Suppose the probability of purchasing a defective computer is 0.02. What is the probability of purchasing 2 defective computers in a group of 10?
x = 2, n = 10, and π = 0.02
.01531
)(.8508)(45)(.0004
.02)(1(.02)2)!(102!
10!
)(1x)!(nx!
n!0.02) 10,|2P(X
2102
xnx
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Chap 5-21Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
The Binomial DistributionShape
0.2.4.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 x
P(X=x|5, 0.1)
.2
.4
.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 x
P(X=x|5, 0.5)
0
The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the values of π and n
Here, n = 5 and π = .1
Here, n = 5 and π = .5
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Chap 5-22Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
The Binomial Distribution Using Binomial Tables (Available On Line)
n = 10
x … π=.20 π=.25 π=.30 π=.35 π=.40 π=.45 π=.50
0123456789
10
……………………………
0.1074
0.2684
0.3020
0.2013
0.0881
0.0264
0.0055
0.0008
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0563
0.1877
0.2816
0.2503
0.1460
0.0584
0.0162
0.0031
0.0004
0.0000
0.0000
0.0282
0.12110.233
50.266
80.200
10.102
90.036
80.009
00.001
40.000
10.000
0
0.0135
0.0725
0.1757
0.2522
0.2377
0.1536
0.0689
0.0212
0.0043
0.0005
0.0000
0.0060
0.0403
0.1209
0.2150
0.2508
0.2007
0.11150.042
50.010
60.001
60.000
1
0.0025
0.0207
0.0763
0.1665
0.2384
0.2340
0.1596
0.0746
0.0229
0.0042
0.0003
0.00100.00980.04390.11720.20510.24610.20510.11720.04390.00980.0010
109876543210
… π=.80 π=.75 π=.70 π=.65 π=.60 π=.55 π=.50 x
Examples: n = 10, π = 0.35, x = 3: P(X = 3|10, 0.35) = 0.2522
n = 10, π = 0.75, x = 8: P(X = 2|10, 0.75) = 0.0004
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Chap 5-23Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Binomial Distribution Characteristics
Mean
Variance and Standard Deviation
nE(X)μ
)-(1nσ2 ππ
)-(1nσ ππWhere n = sample size
π = probability of the event of interest for any trial
(1 – π) = probability of no event of interest for any trial
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Chap 5-24Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
The Binomial DistributionCharacteristics
0.2.4.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 x
P(X=x|5, 0.1)
.2
.4
.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 x
P(X=x|5, 0.5)
0
0.5(5)(.1)nμ π
0.6708
.1)(5)(.1)(1)-(1nσ
ππ
2.5(5)(.5)nμ π
1.118
.5)(5)(.5)(1)-(1nσ
ππ
Examples
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Chap 5-25Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Using Excel For TheBinomial Distribution (n = 4, π = 0.1)
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Chap 5-26Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Using Minitab For The Binomial Distribution (n = 4, π = 0.1)
1
2
3
45
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Chap 5-27Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
The Poisson DistributionDefinitions
You use the Poisson distribution when you are interested in the number of times an event occurs in a given area of opportunity.
An area of opportunity is a continuous unit or interval of time, volume, or such area in which more than one occurrence of an event can occur. The number of scratches in a car’s paint The number of mosquito bites on a person The number of computer crashes in a day
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Chap 5-28Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
The Poisson Distribution
Apply the Poisson Distribution when: You wish to count the number of times an event
occurs in a given area of opportunity The probability that an event occurs in one area of
opportunity is the same for all areas of opportunity The number of events that occur in one area of
opportunity is independent of the number of events that occur in the other areas of opportunity
The probability that two or more events occur in an area of opportunity approaches zero as the area of opportunity becomes smaller
The average number of events per unit is (lambda)
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Chap 5-29Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Poisson Distribution Formula
where:
x = number of events in an area of opportunity
= expected number of events
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)
!)|(
x
exXP
x
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Chap 5-30Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Poisson Distribution Characteristics
Mean
Variance and Standard Deviation
λμ
λσ2
λσ
where = expected number of events
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Chap 5-31Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Using Poisson Tables (Available On Line)
X
0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
01234567
0.90480.09050.00450.00020.00000.00000.00000.0000
0.81870.16370.01640.00110.00010.00000.00000.0000
0.74080.22220.03330.00330.00030.00000.00000.0000
0.67030.26810.05360.00720.00070.00010.00000.0000
0.60650.30330.07580.01260.00160.00020.00000.0000
0.54880.32930.09880.01980.00300.00040.00000.0000
0.49660.34760.12170.02840.00500.00070.00010.0000
0.44930.35950.14380.03830.00770.00120.00020.0000
0.40660.36590.16470.04940.01110.00200.00030.0000
Example: Find P(X = 2 | = 0.50)
0.07582!
(0.50)e
x!
e0.50) | 2P(X
20.50xλ
λ
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Chap 5-32Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Using Excel For ThePoisson Distribution (λ= 3)
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Chap 5-33Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Using Minitab For The Poisson Distribution (λ = 3)
1
2
3
4
5
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Chap 5-34Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Graph of Poisson Probabilities
X =
0.50
01234567
0.60650.30330.07580.01260.00160.00020.00000.0000 P(X = 2 | =0.50) = 0.0758
Graphically:
= 0.50
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Chap 5-35Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Poisson Distribution Shape
The shape of the Poisson Distribution depends on the parameter :
= 0.50 = 3.00
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Chap 5-36Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Chapter Summary
Addressed the properties of a probability distribution of a discrete random variable
Computed the expected value and variance of a discrete random variable
Discussed the binomial distribution, how to use it to compute probabilities, and how to use it to solve business problems
Discussed the Poisson distribution, how to use it to compute probabilities, and how to use it to solve business problems
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Chap 5-37Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America.