chap14pp

© 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e.

Fernando & Yvonn Quijano

Prepared by:

Chapter

14

Monetary Policy

© 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 2 of 39

Monetary Policy, Toll Brothers, and the Housing Market

14.1 Define monetary policy and describe the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy goals.

14.2 Describe the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy targets and explain how expansionary and contractionary monetary policies affect the interest rate.

14.3 Use aggregate demand and aggregate supply graphs to show the effects of monetary policy on real GDP and the price level.

14.4 Discuss the Fed’s setting of monetary policy targets.

14.5 Assess the arguments for and against the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Learning Objectives

By driving down interest rates, the Fed succeeded in heading off what some economists had predicted would be a prolonged and severe recession.

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What Is Monetary Policy?

Learning Objective 14.1

Monetary policy The actions the Federal Reserve takes to manage the money supply and interest rates to pursue its economic objectives.

1 Price stability

2 High employment

3 Economic growth

4 Stability of financial markets and institutions

The Goals of Monetary Policy

The Fed has set four monetary policy goals that are intended to promote a well-functioning economy:

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Price Stability

FIGURE 14.1

The Inflation Rate, 1952–2006


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High Employment

The goal of high employment extends beyond the Fed to other branches of the federal government.


Economic Growth

Policymakers aim to encourage stable economic growth because stable growth allows households and firms to plan accurately and encourages the long-run investment that is needed to sustain growth.

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Stability of Financial Markets and Institutions

When financial markets and institutions are not efficient in matching savers and borrowers, resources are lost.


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The Money Market and the Fed’s Choice of Monetary Policy Targets


The Fed tries to keep both the unemployment and inflation rates low, but it can’t affect either of these economic variables directly.

The Fed uses variables, called monetary policy targets, that it can affect directly and that, in turn, affect variables that are closely related to the Fed’s policy goals, such as real GDP, employment, and the price level.

Monetary Policy Targets

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The Money Market and the Fed’s Choiceof Monetary Policy Targets


The Demand for Money

FIGURE 14.2

The Demand for Money

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Shifts in the Money Demand Curve

FIGURE 14.3

Shifts in the Money Demand Curve

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How the Fed Manages the Money Supply: A Quick Review

Equilibrium in the Money MarketFIGURE 14.4

The Impact on the Interest Rate When the Fed Increases the Money Supply

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Equilibrium in the Money Market

FIGURE 14.5

The Impact on the Interest Rate When the Fed Increases the Money Supply

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Solved Problem 14-2The Relationship between Treasury Bill Prices and Their Interest Rates


4 100 x 000,1$

P

P

What is the price of a Treasury bill that pays $1,000 in one year, if its interest rate is 4 percent? What is the price of the Treasury bill if its interest rate is 5 percent?

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A Tale of Two Interest Rates

Why do we need two models of the interest rate?

The answer is that the loanable funds model is concerned with the long-term real rate of interest, and the money-market model is concerned with the short-term nominal rate of interest.

Choosing a Monetary Policy Target

There are many different interest rates in the economy.

For purposes of monetary policy, the Fed has targeted the interest rate known as the federal funds rate.

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The Importance of the Federal Funds Rate

Federal funds rate The interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans.

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The Importance of the Federal Funds RateFIGURE 14.6

Federal Funds Rate Targeting,

January 1997–May 2007

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Monetary Policy and Economic Activity


• Consumption

• Investment

• Net exports

How Interest Rates Affect Aggregate Demand

Changes in interest rates will not affect government purchases, but they will affect the other three components of aggregate demand in the following ways:

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The Inflation and Deflation of the Housing Market “Bubble”

Makingthe

Connection

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Expansionary monetary policy The Federal Reserve’s increasing the money supply and decreasing interest rates to increase real GDP.

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Real GDP and the Price Level: An Initial Look

Contractionary monetary policy The Federal Reserve’s adjusting the money supply to increase interest rates to reduce inflation.

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The Effects of Monetary Policy on Real GDP andthe Price Level: An Initial Look

FIGURE 14.7

Monetary Policy

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The Effects of Monetary Policy on Real GDP and the Price Level: A More Complete Account

FIGURE 14.8

An Expansionary Monetary Policy

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The Fed Responds to the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001

Makingthe

Connection

The day after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the Fed made massive discount loans to banks and succeeded in preventing a financial panic. Alan Greenspan, pictured here, was the chairman of the Fed at the time of the attacks.

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Keeping recessions shorter and milder than they would otherwise be is usually the best the Fed can do.

Can the Fed Eliminate Recessions?

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Using Monetary Policy to Fight Inflation

FIGURE 14.9

A Contractionary Monetary Policy in 2000

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Solved Problem 14-3The Effects of Monetary Policy


YEAR POTENTIAL REAL GDP REAL GDP PRICE LEVEL

2010 $13.3 trillion $13.3 trillion 140

2011 $13.7 trillion $13.6 trillion 142

The hypothetical information in the table shows what the values for real GDP and the price level will be in 2011 if the Fed does not use monetary policy.

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Solved Problem 14-3The Effects of Monetary Policy (continued)


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A Summary of How Monetary Policy Works

Table 14-1

Expansionary and Contractionary Monetary Policies

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Why Does Wall Street Care about Monetary Policy?

Makingthe

Connection

The stock market reacts when the Fed either raises or lowers interest rates.

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Can the Fed Get the Timing Right?

FIGURE 14.10

The Effect of a Poorly Timed Monetary Policy on the Economy

Don’t Let This Happen to YOU!Remember That with Monetary Policy, It’s the Interest Rates—Not the Money—That Counts

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A Closer Look at the Fed’s Settingof Monetary Policy Targets


Some economists have argued that rather than use an interest rate as its monetary policy target, the Fed should use the money supply.

Many of the economists who make this argument belong to a school of thought known as monetarism.

The leader of the monetarist school was Nobel laureate Milton Friedman.

Friedman and his followers favored replacing monetary policy with a monetary growth rule.

Should the Fed Target the Money Supply?

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Why Doesn’t the Fed Target Both the Money Supply and the Interest Rate?

FIGURE 14.11

The Fed Can’t Target Both the Money Supply and the Interest Rate

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Taylor rule A rule developed by John Taylor that links the Fed’s target for the federal funds rate to economic variables.

The Taylor Rule

Federal funds target rate = Current inflation rate + Real equilibrium federal funds rate + (1/2) x Inflation gap + (1/2) x Output gap

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Should the Fed Target Inflation?

Inflation targeting Conducting monetary policy so as to commit the central bank to achieving a publicly announced level of inflation.

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How Does the Fed Measure Inflation?Making

the

Connection

1 The PCE is a so-called chain-type price index, as opposed to the market-basket approach used in constructing the CPI. As we saw in Chapter 20, because consumers shift the mix of products they buy each year, the market-basket approach makes the CPI overstate actual inflation. A chain-type price index allows the mix of products to change each year.

2 The PCE includes the prices of more goods and services than the CPI, so it is a broader measure of inflation.

3 Past values of the PCE can be recalculated as better ways of computing price indexes are developed and as new data become available. This allows the Fed to better track historical trends in the inflation rate.

In 2000, the Fed announced that it would rely more on the PCE than on the CPI in tracking inflation. The Fed noted three advantages that the PCE has over the CPI:

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Makingthe

ConnectionHow Does the Fed Measure Inflation?

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Is the Independence of theFederal Reserve a Good Idea?


The Case for Fed Independence

FIGURE 14.12

The More Independent the Central Bank, the Lower the Inflation Rate

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Is the Independence of theFederal Reserve a Good Idea?


In democracies, elected representatives usually decide important policy matters. In the United States, however, monetary policy is not decided by elected officials. Instead, it is decided by the unelected FOMC.

Because those deciding monetary policy do not have to run for election, they are not accountable for their actions to the ultimate authorities in a democracy: the voters.

The Case against Fed Independence

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An Inside LOOK Housing Market Slowdown Affects the United States and Europe Very Differently

Slowing Housing Market Isn’t Big Worry in Europe

Monetary policy has been relatively more contractionary in the United States than in the euro zone during the past few years.

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Contractionary monetary policy

Expansionary monetary policy

Federal funds rate

Inflation targeting

Monetary policy

Taylor rule

K e y T e r m s

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