chapter 14. discuss milton friedman’s contribution to modern economic thought. evaluate...
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Modern Macroeconomics and
Monetary PolicyChapter 14
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Discuss Milton Friedman’s contribution to modern economic thought.
Evaluate appropriately timed monetary policy and its impacts on interest rates and aggregate demand.
Distinguish appropriately timed from ill timed policy and list its consequences.
Chapter 14 Objectives
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1950s and 1960s: economists thought monetary policy◦ Could control inflation◦ Could not stimulate AD
Today: Most economists believe that monetary policy impacts◦ Output in the short run, but not the long run◦ Prices in the short run and the long run◦ Can be a source of economic instability
History of Monetary Policy Beliefs
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Every major contraction in this country has been either produced by
monetary disorder or greatly exacerbated by monetary disorder.
Every major inflation episode has been produced by monetary
expansion.
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Demand for money balances is not the same as the demand for wealth
Reasons to hold money◦ Buy stuff now◦ In case of emergency◦ Buy stuff later
Supply and Demand of Money
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Demand for money – Illustrates the relationship between the interest rate and quantity of money people want to hold
Downward sloping: the opportunity cost of holding money is the nominal interest rate
Shifts right: when nominal GDP rises Shifts left
◦ When nominal GDP falls◦ As people use more electronic transactions
Demand for Money
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The Fed controls the supply of money through◦ Reserve requirement◦ Open market operations (federal funds rate)◦ Discount-rate◦ Interest paid on excess reserves
Vertical: changes in the interest rate do not impact the Fed’s ability to control the money supply
Supply of Money
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Supply and Demand of Money
Money Supply
Quantity of Money
Qs
Equilibrium – the quantity of money demanded equals the quantity supplied
i1
Money Demand
Nom
inal Inte
rest
Rate
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When the Fed buys bonds◦ Supply of money increases◦ Supply of loanable funds increases◦ AD shifts right
Expansionary Monetary Policy
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Aggregate demand will increase because◦ A lower interest rate makes current investment
and consumption cheaper◦ A lower interest rate causes financial assets to
move abroad, the dollar will depreciate, and net exports will increase
◦ A lower interest rate increases asset prices (stocks, houses) which also increases investment and consumption (aggregate demand)
Expansionary Monetary Policy
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Expansionary Monetary Policy: Money Balances
S1
Q1
The fed buys bonds to increase the money supply and the interest rate will fall
i1
Money Demand
Nom
inal Inte
rest
Rate
S2
Q2
i2
Quantity of Money
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Expansionary Monetary Policy: Loanable Funds
Real In
tere
st R
ate
D
r1
Q1
S1
Loanable Funds
Increases supply of loanable funds as banks make more loans, real interest rate falls
r2
Q2
S2
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Expansionary Monetary Policy: Goods and Services (real GDP)
Expansionary Monetary policy shifts AD right as spending by consumers and businesses increases.
Price Level
Goods and Services (real GDP)
AD2
Y2
P2
P1
SRAS1
AD1
Y1
In the short run output increases
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Expansionary monetary policyWhat happens in the long run?
Price Level
Goods and Services (real GDP)
AD2
YF
P2
P1
SRAS1
AD1
Y1
If the economy was initially at less than full employment, no further adjustments take place
LRAS1
E2
e1
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Expansionary monetary policyWhat happens in the long run?
Price Level
Goods and Services (real GDP)
AD1
YF
P1
P2
SRAS1
AD2
Y2
If the economy was initially at (or greater than) full employment, SRAS shifts left and inflation occurs
LRAS1
E2e2
E1
P3
SRAS2
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When the Fed sells bonds◦ Supply of money decreases◦ Supply of loanable funds decreases◦ AD shifts left
Restrictive Monetary Policy
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Aggregate demand will decrease because◦ A higher interest rate makes current investment
and consumption more expensive◦ A higher interest rate causes financial assets to
flow the U.S., the dollar will appreciate, and net exports will fall
◦ A higher interest rate decreases asset prices (stocks, houses) which also decreases investment and consumption (aggregate demand)
Restrictive Monetary Policy
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Restrictive Monetary Policy: Money Balances
S1
Quantity of Money
Q1
i1
Money Demand
Nom
inal Inte
rest
Rate
S2
Q2
i2
The fed sells bonds to decrease the money supply and the interest rate will rise
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Restrictive Monetary Policy: Loanable Funds
Real In
tere
st R
ate
D
r2
Q2
S2
Loanable Funds
Decreases supply of loanable funds as banks make fewer loans, real interest rate rises
r1
Q1
S1
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Restrictive Monetary Policy:Goods and Services (real GDP)
Restrictive Monetary policy shifts AD left as spending by consumers and businesses decreases.
Price Level
Goods and Services (real GDP)
AD1
Y1
P1
P2
SRAS1
AD2
Y2
In the short run output decreases
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Restrictive monetary policyWhat happens in the long run?
Price Level
Goods and Services (real GDP)
AD2
YF
P2
P1
SRAS1
AD1
Y1
If the economy was initially at greater than full employment, no further adjustments take place
LRAS1
E2
e1
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Restrictive monetary policyWhat happens in the long run?
Price Level
Goods and Services (real GDP)
AD1
YF
P1
SRAS1
AD2
Y2
If the economy was initially at full employment, the policy will cause a recession
LRAS1
e2
E1P2
Eventually, self-correction will occur as resource prices adjust downward (this is not pictured)
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Timed correctly ◦ Will help mitigate a recession◦ Will help control / prevent inflation ◦ Will lead to economic stability
Timed incorrectly ◦ Will make a recession even worse◦ Will lead to massive inflation ◦ Will lead to economic instability
Summary Monetary Policy
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Quantity theory of money – a theory that says a change in the money supply will cause a proportional change in the price level
Velocity of money – average number of times a dollar is use to purchase final goods and services during a year
Monetary Policy in the Long Run
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P ~ price level Y ~ real GDP M ~ money supply V ~ velocity of money PY ~ nominal GDP
Quantity Theory of Money
MVPY Equation of Exchange
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Can be written in terms of growth rates
Equation of Exchange
Rate of inflation + Growth rate of real output
=Growth rate of money supply + Growth rate of velocity
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In the short-run, monetary policy will impact real output and employment◦ Expansionary will increase output◦ Restriction will reduce output
In the long-run, expansionary monetary policy will only lead to inflation
Money and Inflation
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Fed can easily change policy, but After policy change
◦ 6 – 15 months to impact real output◦ 12 – 30 months to impact price level and inflation
Implementing monetary policy in a stabilizing way is difficult
Monetary policy time lags
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Expansionary monetary policy cannot promote long term economic growth
Economists have limited forecasting abilities Price stability is a key to economic
prosperity
Limitations of Monetary Policy
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Austrian View of the Business Cycle
Explains the housing boom (2002-2006), bust (2008) and subsequent slow recovery:
Austrians believe: ◦Expansionary monetary policy pushes the interest
rate to an artificial low.◦The low interest rates will induce entrepreneurs to
undertake long-term investments. This will generate an economic boom.
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Austrian View of the Business Cycle
Austrians believe:◦But, the boom will be unsustainable because
savings are too low to purchase these new assets. ◦The boom turns to bust and a large share of the
newly constructed assets end up unoccupied. Austrian economists refer to this as malinvestment.
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Impact of Stop-Go Monetary Policy
Monetary policy variable over the past decade Likely to increase economic instability Hard for monetary policy-makers to institute stop-
go policy in a stabilizing manner
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Discuss Milton Friedman’s contribution to modern economic thought.
Evaluate appropriately timed monetary policy and its impacts on interest rates and aggregate demand.
Distinguish appropriately timed from ill timed policy and list its consequences.
Chapter 14 Objectives