chapter 15 charts: predicting stocks* includes reinvested dividends. ** using last month of quarter...

Predicting the MarketsChapter 15 Charts:Predicting Stocks

Yardeni Research, Inc.

July 27, 2021

Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist

Mali QuintanaSenior Economist

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com


Predicting Stocks 1-31

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.5

5.5

10.5

15.5

20.5

25.530.535.540.5

.5

5.5

10.5

15.5

20.5

25.530.535.540.5

1000(10/11/82)

5000(11/21/95)

10000(3/29/99)

15000(5/7/13)

20000(1/25/17)DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE: MILESTONES

(thousands, weekly, ratio scale)7/23

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

19281933

19381943

19481953

19581963

19681973

19781983

19881993

19982003

20082013

2018

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

37.1

46.6

41.4

27.9

25.2

12.4

19.4

13.8

30.7

0.0

10.3

21.8

16.5

11.8

45.0

26.4

2.6

38.1

8.5

23.1

18.9

13.0

9.1

20.1

7.7

0.1

10.8 15

.6

31.5

19.1

1.1

12.3

25.8

14.8 17

.31.

426

.314

.62.

012

.427

.326

.34.

5 7.1

34.1

20.3

31.0

26.7

19.5

26.4

9.0

3.0

13.6

3.5

23.5

12.8

13.4

29.6

11.4

9.5

19.4

-11.

9-2

8.5

-47.

1-1

5.1

-5.9

-38.

6-5

.5-1

5.3

-17.

9 -11.

9-0

.7

-6.6

-14.

3

-3.0

-11.

8

-13.

1

-11.

4

-17.

4-2

9.7

-11.

5

-9.7 -6

.6 -1.5

-10.

1-1

3.0

-23.

4

-38.

5

0.0

-0.7

-6.2

S&P 500 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGES: 1928-2017*

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.* Annual percent changes based on year-end values except 1928, which uses January 3, 1928 for year-end 1927.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Predicting Stocks

Page 1 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com


78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2450

500

950

1400

1850

2300

2750

3200

3650

4100

4550

50

500

950

1400

1850

2300

2750

3200

3650

4100

4550

x5

x10

x15

x20

x25

S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, and VALUATION(monthly) Jun

Blue Angels: S&P 500ActualImplied*

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly data start September 1978.

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

x10

x12

x14

x16

x18

x20S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, and VALUATION(weekly)

Actual 07/27/21Implied* 07/22/21

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Weekly data start March 1994.

Blue Angels: S&P 500

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

Predicting Stocks



***** Chart Not Available *****

Task: PTMSP5REPTRAILFORPE1

Invalid calculation element [SP5COM]

07-27-2021 - 16:21:31

Figure 5.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 242

32

62

92

122

152182212

2

32

62

92

122

152182212

P T P T P T PT P T PT PT P T

S&P 500 Reported Trailing Earnings1960-1978, quarterly, ratio scale

Jun

S&P 500 Forward Earnings 1979-present, monthly

Note: Blue shaded areas denote periods of monetary easing between cyclical peaks and troughs in the federal funds rate. Red shaded areas denotemonetary tightening periods. Business cycle peaks (P) and troughs (T) according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

Predicting Stocks



79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410

60

110

160

210

260

310

10

60

110

160

210

260

310

May

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS WITH 5%-7% CAGR PATHS(base period Dec 1978 = 13.07, ratio scale)

5%

6%

7%

yardeni.com

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 7.

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25.1

20.1

40.1

60.180.1100.1

.1

20.1

40.1

60.180.1

100.1

S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHAREWITH 5%-7% CAGR GROWTH PATHS*

(dollars, Q4-1934 = 0.18, ratio scale) Q1

5%

6%

7%

* Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.

Predicting Stocks



20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 254

2004

4004

6004800410004

4

2004

4004

60048004

10004

Jun

S&P 500 INDEX* WITH 4%-7% CAGR PATHS(base period Dec 1920 = 7.11, ratio scale)

4%

5%

6%

7%

yardeni.com

* S&P 500 stock price index is average monthly price.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 9.

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20259

40009

80009120009160009200009

9

40009

80009120009160009200009

Q2

Q2

S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN INDEX WITH 6%-11% CAGR PATHS(base period Dec 1935 = 14.96, ratio scale)

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

S&P 500Total Return Index*Total Return Index/CPI**

yardeni.com

* Includes reinvested dividends.** Using last month of quarter CPI. Compounded monthly using base value.

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 10.

Predicting Stocks



21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17 21 252

802

1602

2402320240024802

2

802

1602

2402320240024802

T PT PT P T PT PT PT PT PT PT PT P T PTP T PT PT P T

S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS& THE BUSINESS CYCLE

(monthly, ratio scale)

Jun

Note: Shaded green areas denote S&P 500 bull markets, while red areas are bear market declines of 20% or more.Business cycle peaks (P) and troughs (T) according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440

590

1140

1690

2240

27903340389044404990

40

590

1140

1690

2240

27903340389044404990

P T P T P T PT P T PT PT P T

S&P 500 & MONETARY POLICY CYCLE(monthly, ratio scale)

Jun

Note: Blue shaded areas denote periods of monetary easing between cyclical peaks and troughs in the federal funds rate. Red shaded areas denotemonetary tightening periods. Business cycle peaks (P) and troughs (T) according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

Predicting Stocks



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2380

360

640

920

1200

1480

17602040232026002880

80

360

640

920

1200

1480

17602040232026002880

7/27S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY STOCK PRICE INDEX*

yardeni.com

200-day moving average.* Ratio scale.


Figure 13.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2360

200

340

480

620

760

60

200

340

480

620

760

7/27

S&P 500 FINANCIALS STOCK PRICE INDEX*

yardeni.com



Figure 14.

Predicting Stocks



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022500

950

1400

1850

2300

2750

3200

3650

4100

4550

500

950

1400

1850

2300

2750

3200

3650

4100

4550

S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 2008-2017(ratio scale)

7/27

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% (157)

-9.8% (28)

-9.9% (60)

-7.7% (62)

-5.8% (34)

-5.8% (19)

-6.9% (37)

-12.4% (96)

-13.3% (100)

Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more(in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses.

200-day moving average.


yardeni.com

Figure 15.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2395

195

295

395

495

595

695

795

95

195

295

395

495

595

695

795

7/27

S&P 500 ENERGY STOCK PRICE INDEX*

yardeni.com



Figure 16.

Predicting Stocks



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230

25

50

75

0

25

50

75

Q1

7/27

7/26

Q1

US CORPORATE EQUITY ISSUES AT MARKET VALUE(trillion dollars, nsa)

Equites at Market Value

S&P 1500Wilshire 5000

S&P 500S&P 400 + S&P 600

Total IssuesTotal Ex Foreign Issues*

* Excludes holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States, Dow Jones, and Standard & Poors.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 17.

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23150

550

950

1350

1750

2150

255029503350375041504550

150

550

950

1350

1750

2150

255029503350375041504550

6/16S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(daily, ratio scale)

S&P 500 LargeCapS&P 400 MidCapS&P 600 SmallCap


yardeni.com

Figure 18.

Predicting Stocks



1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 1990s(percent change since October 11, 1990)

Energy (134.1)

Materials (133.3)

Industrials (357.4)

Consumer Staples (175.0)

Health Care (337.5)Financials (608.2)

Information Technology (1697.2)

Telecommunications Services (299.7)

Consumer Discretionary (444.9)

Utilities (63.6)


yardeni.com

Figure 19.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2002-2007(percent change since October 9, 2002)

Energy (242.2)

Materials (162.3)

Industrials (125.9)

Consumer Staples (40.4)

Health Care (41.4)Financials (92.6)

Information Technology (145.4)


Consumer Discretionary (78.3)

Utilities (172.1)


yardeni.com

Figure 20.

Predicting Stocks



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2009-?(percent change since March 9, 2009)

Consumer Discretionary (1069.8)Consumer Staples (270.4)Energy (19.8)Financials (623.6)Health Care (503.6)Industrials (555.7)Information Technology (1245.3)

Latest data thru: 07/27/21



yardeni.com

Figure 21.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2003-2007(percent change in US dollars since October 9, 2002)

UK (130.7)

EMU** (223.7)EM* (386.0)

Japan (113.6)

US (103.8)

* EM = Emerging Markets. ** EMU = European Monetary Union.Source: MSCI.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

Predicting Stocks



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-250255075100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550575600

-250

255075

100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550575600

MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2009-?(percent change in US dollars since March 9, 2009)

UK (89.8)

EMU** (149.3)EM* (163.8)

Japan (145.2)

US (567.2)

Latest data thru: 07/26/21

* EM = Emerging Markets. ** EMU = European Monetary Union.Source: MSCI.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20233.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5 7/26

7/26

RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI:US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX US MSCI(in both US$ and in local currencies, daily)

MSCI US / ACW ex-USIn dollarsIn local currencies

Source: MSCI.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

Predicting Stocks



85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 235

10

15

20

25

30

35

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jun

MARKET CAP & EARNINGS SHARES:S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(monthly)

S&P 500 Information TechnologyCapitalization ShareEarnings Share*

* Using consensus year-ahead forward earnings forecasts.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 235

10

15

20

25

30

5

10

15

20

25

30

May

MARKET CAP & EARNINGS SHARES:S&P 500 FINANCIALS(monthly)

S&P 500 FinancialsCapitalization ShareEarnings Share*

* Using consensus year-ahead forward earnings forecasts.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

Predicting Stocks



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q1

M&A ACTIVITY: UNITED STATES*(billion US dollars, quarterly)

Latest (229.6)

* Excludes spinoffs.Source: Dealogic.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 27.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

NEW US CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES: ALL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

May

Note: Shaded green areas denote S&P 500 bull markets, while red areas are bear market declines of 20% or more.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

Predicting Stocks



88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

NEW US CORPORATE EQUITY ISSUES: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum) May


yardeni.com

Figure 29.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

NEW US CORPORATE EQUITY ISSUES: FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

May


yardeni.com

Figure 30.

Predicting Stocks



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

Q1

NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: ALL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

TotalEx ETFs*

* Excluding net issuance of equities by all ETFs including those investing in debt.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 1 minus line 8.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q1

NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: ETFs(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

ETFs

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 32.

Predicting Stocks



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

Q1

NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Nonfinancial

Source: Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 2.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230

200

400

600

800

1000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Q1

S&P 500 SHARE BUYBACKS(billion dollars, annualized)

Share Buybacks


yard

eni.c

om

Figure 34.

Predicting Stocks



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q1

NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: DOMESTIC FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Domestic FinancialsEx ETFs

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 3 minus line 8.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 35.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Q1

NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: REST OF WORLD*(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

* Net purchases of foreign corporate equities and investment fund shares by US residents; includes American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 14.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.

Predicting Stocks



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

Q1

CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (INCLUDING ETF SHARES): INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Institutional Investors*

* Includes property-casualty insurance companies, life insurance companies, private pension funds, state and local retirement funds, and federalgovernment retirement funds.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 sum of lines 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Q1

CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (INCLUDING ETF SHARES): REST OF WORLD(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Rest of World

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 Line 32.

yardeni.com

Figure 38.

Predicting Stocks



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Q1

CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (INCLUDING ETF SHARES): MUTUAL FUNDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Equity Mutual Funds*

* Includes purchases by both equity funds and hybrid funds that invest in a mix of equity and debt securities.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 Line 27.

yardeni.com

Figure 39.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Q1

CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (INCLUDING ETF SHARES): ETFs(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Equity ETFs*

* Includes purchases by both equity funds and hybrid funds that invest in a mix of equity and debt securities.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 29.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 40.

Predicting Stocks



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q1

US DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS & ETFs: NET INFLOWS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Domestic Equity Mutual Funds& ETFs

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.122 line 16 plus F.124 line 9.

yardeni.com

Figure 41.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q1

US WORLD EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS & ETFs: NET INFLOWS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

World Equity Mutual Funds & ETFs

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.122 line 17 plus F.124 line 10.

yardeni.com

Figure 42.

Predicting Stocks



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25.0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.514.014.5

.0

.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.5

10.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.514.014.5

MayEQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS*(cumulative flows since 1990, trillion dollars)

Cumulative FlowsNet AssetsNet InflowsCapital Gains

* Excludes equities purchased by hybrid funds that invest in a mix of equity and debt securities.Source: Investment Company Institute.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-.3-.1.1.3.5.7.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.32.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.14.34.54.7

-.3-.1.1.3.5.7.9

1.11.31.51.71.92.12.32.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.14.34.54.7

Dec

EQUITY ETFs*(cumulative flows since 2001, trillion dollars)

Cumulative FlowsNet AssetsNet InflowsCapital Gains

* Excludes equities purchased by hybrid funds that invest in a mix of equity and debt securities.Source: Investment Company Institute.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.

Predicting Stocks



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202350

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260

7/17

7/22

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER(weekly)

S&P 500Forward Earnings*

Boom-Bust Barometer**

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year.** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 45.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

-10

30

70

110

150

190

230

270

310

7/17

7/27S&P 500 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER

Boom-Bust Barometer*

S&P 500 Index

* CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.

Predicting Stocks



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

10/13

7/27S&P 500 INDEX & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX

S&P 500 Index

YRI Weekly Leading Index*

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrialsspot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 47.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

10/13

7/23

YRI vs ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX

YRI Weekly Leading Index*

FIBER Weekly Leading Index(1992=100)

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrialsspot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Foundation of International Business & Economic Research (FIBER).

yardeni.com

Figure 48.

Predicting Stocks



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160 7/27S&P 500 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX

FIBER WeeklyLeading Index(1992=100)

S&P 500 Index

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Foundation of International Business & Economic Research (FIBER).

yardeni.com

Figure 49.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

475

525

575

625

675

725

775

825

875

925 7/27MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500

Margin Debt*(billion dollars)

S&P 500 Index

yardeni.com

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers.Source: Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 50.

Predicting Stocks



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

S&P 500 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 200-DMA*

7/16

Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades).Number of calendar days in parentheses.

* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dma.


yardeni.com

Figure 51.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

S&P 500 % OF COMPANIES POSITIVE Y/Y PRICE CHANGE*

7/16

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% (157)

-9.8% (28)

-9.9% (60)

-7.7% (62)

-5.8% (34)

-5.8% (19)

-6.9% (37)

-12.4% (96)

-11.6% (101)

Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more(in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses.

* Using end of week price data to calculate year-over-year price change.


yardeni.com

Figure 52.

Predicting Stocks



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

7/217/21

yardeni.com

STOCK MARKET BREADTH: S&P 500 RATIOS

S&P 500 Ratio:Equal-Weighted to Market-Cap-WeightedRatio of S&P 500 toS&P 100 Stock Price Indexes


Figure 53.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202350

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450500550600650

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450500550600650

7/23ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE (ALL NYSE SECURITIES)(thousands, weekly, ratio scale)

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

yardeni.com

Figure 54.

Predicting Stocks



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

7/27

S&P 500 VIX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND SPREAD

S&P 500 VIX

High-YieldCorporate Spread*

* US high-yield corporate bond yield less US Treasury 10-year bond yield (basis points).Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Bank of America Merill Lynch, and Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 55.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

7/27

S&P 500 VIX & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS

Investors Intelligence Bears(percent)

S&P 500 VIX

Source: Investors Intelligence and Chicago Board Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 56.

Predicting Stocks



Figure 57.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

6/15

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

RatioBulls/Bears*

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

6/15

PercentageBullsBears

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 245

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

6/15

PercentageCorrectionCamp

yardeni.com

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Predicting Stocks



87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

30003400380042004600

200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

30003400380042004600

S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

7/27

yardeni.com

* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 58.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

30003400380042004600

200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

30003400380042004600

S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*

(ratio scale)

7/27

yardeni.com

* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 59.

Predicting Stocks



Figure 60.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

5748

55 5853 51 53 53

41

53 55

66

-34-43

-36 -33-38 -40 -38 -38

-49

-38 -36

-25

S&P 500 INDEX: TOTAL NUMBER UP OR DOWN EACH MONTH 1928-2018*

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

4.1

2.93.4

4.2

3.13.8

5.0

3.93.2

4.1 3.9

2.9

-3.9-3.3 -3.6 -3.8

-4.6

-3.2 -3.2-3.9

-4.6 -4.7-4.1

-3.1

S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE PERCENT UP OR DOWN EACH MONTH 1928-2018

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1.1

-0.1

0.6

1.3

-0.1

0.7

1.6

0.6

-1.0

0.4

0.7

1.3

S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE EACH MONTH 1928-2018

Average gain

Average loss

*No change (0.00%) month of September 1979. Data are through December 2018. Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Predicting Stocks



http://blog.yardeni.com

http://blog.yardeni.com

[email protected]

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.

chapter 15 charts: predicting stocks* includes reinvested dividends. ** using last month of quarter...

Documents