chapter 17 liquidity risk copyright © 2011 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights...
TRANSCRIPT
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CHAPTER 17
Liquidity Risk
Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin
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Overview This chapter explores the problem of
liquidity risk faced to a greater or lesser extent by all FIs. Liquidity concerns continue to be a factor affecting recovery from the financial crisis. Methods of measuring liquidity risk and its consequences are discussed. The chapter also discusses the regulatory mechanisms put in place to control liquidity risk.
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FIs and Liquidity Risk Exposure
High exposure– Depository institutions– Loss of confidence in bank-to-bank lending
affects liquidity in other markets
Moderate exposure– Life insurance companies
Low exposure– Mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and
property-casualty insurance companies. Typically low, does not mean zero Bear Stearns Funds
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Causes of Liquidity Risk Liability-side liquidity risk when depositors or
policyholders cash in claims– With low cash holdings, FI may be forced to
liquidate assets too rapidly Faster sale may require much lower price
Asset-side liquidity risk can result from OBS loan commitments– Liquidity requirements from take down of funds
can be met by running down cash assets, selling liquid assets, or additional borrowing
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Liability-side Liquidity Risk for DIs
Reliance on demand deposits– Core deposits– Depository institutions need to be able to
predict the distribution of net deposit drains Seasonality effects in net withdrawal patterns Early 2000s problem with low rates: Finding suitable
investment opportunities for the large inflows
– Managed by: Purchased liquidity management Stored liquidity management
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Purchased Liquidity Management– Federal funds market or repurchase
agreement market– Managing the liability side preserves
asset side of balance sheet– Borrowed funds likely at higher rates
than interest paid on deposits– Deposits are insured but borrowed funds
not necessarily protected– Regulatory concerns:
During financial crisis, wholesale funds were difficult and sometimes impossible to obtain
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Stored Liquidity Management Liquidate assets to meet withdrawals
– In absence of reserve requirements, banks tend to hold reserves. (Example: In U.K. reserves ~ 1% or more)
– Downsides: Opportunity cost of holding excessive cash, or other
liquid assets Decreases size of balance sheet Requires holding excess low return or zero return
assets
Combine purchased and stored liquidity management
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Asset Side Liquidity Risk Risk from loan commitments and other credit
lines– Met either by borrowing funds and/or by
running down reserves Current levels of loan commitments are
dangerously high– Commercial banks in particular have been
increasing commitments over the past few years, presumably believing commitments will not be used
– In 1994, unused commitments equaled 529%. In 2008, 1,015%. Fell back to 609% during the crisis.
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Investment Portfolio & Asset Side Liquidity Risk
Interest rate risk and market risk of the investment portfolio can cause values to fluctuate
Arguments that technological improvements have increased liquidity in financial markets– Some argue that “herd” behavior may
actually reduce liquidity
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Measuring Liquidity Exposure Net liquidity statement:
– Sources of liquidity: (i) Cash type assets, (ii) maximum amount of borrowed funds available, (iii) excess cash reservesWith liquidity improvements gained via
securitization and loan sales, many banks have added loan assets to statement of sources
– Uses of liquidityBorrowed or money market funds already
utilizedAny amounts already borrowed from the Fed
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Other Measures
Peer group comparisons: Usual ratios include borrowed funds/total assets, loan commitments/assets, etc.
Liquidity index: Weighted sum of “fire sale price” P, to fair
market price, P*, where the portfolio weights are the percent of the portfolio value formed by the individual assets
I = wi(Pi /Pi*)
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Measuring Liquidity Risk Financing gap and the financing
requirement Financing gap = Average loans -
Average deposits, or financing gap + liquid assets = financing requirement
The gap can be used in peer group comparisons or examined for trends within an individual FI
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BIS Approach Maturity ladder/scenario analysis
– For each maturity, assess all cash inflows versus outflows
– Daily and cumulative net funding requirements can be determined in this manner
– Managers can then influence the maturity of transactions to fill gaps
– Must also evaluate “what if” scenarios in this framework (cautions about managing in abnormal conditions )
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For further information on the BIS maturity ladder approach, visit:Bank for International Settlements www.bis.org
Web Resources
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Liquidity Planning Make funding decisions before
liquidity problems arise Lower the cost of funds by planning
an optimal funding mix Minimize the need for reserve
holdings
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Liquidity Planning Delineate managerial responsibilities
– Identify who responds to regulatory agencies, who discloses information to the public, etc.
Detailed list of funds providers, important to anticipate the expected pattern of withdrawals in a crisis– Example: Mutual funds/pension funds more
likely to withdraw than correspondent banks and small businesses
– Allow for seasonal effects
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Liquidity Planning (continued)
Identify size of potential deposit and fund withdrawals over various future time horizons– Identify potential alternative sources to meet
the liquidity needs within these horizons
Set internal limits on subsidiaries’ and branches’ borrowings and limits on risk premiums for funding sources
Plan the sequence of asset disposal to meet liquidity needs
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Bank Runs Can arise due to concern about:
– Bank solvency– Failure of a related FI– Sudden changes in investor preferences
Demand deposits are first come, first served– Depositor’s place in line matters
Bank panic: Systemic or contagious bank run
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Alleviating Bank Runs Measures to reduce likelihood of
bank runs:– Discount window– FDIC– Direct actions such as TARP (2008-2009)– Fed lending to investment banks in the
crisis Not without economic costs
– Protections can encourage DIs to increase liquidity risk
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For information about the Federal Reserve Bank, visit:Federal Reserve Bank www.federalreserve.gov
Web Resources
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Liquidity Risk for Life Cos. Life cos. hold reserves such as
government bonds as a buffer to offset policy cancellations
The pattern is normally predictable Solvency concerns can still
generate runs on the life insurance company.
Led to limits on ability to surrender policies
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Liquidity Risk for PC Insurers
Problem is less severe for PC insurers since assets tend to be shorter term and more liquid
However, spikes in claims can be problematic Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina
precipitated severe liquidity crises for many insurers
Near failure of giant insurer, AIG (2008)−Credit default swaps −Restructuring and government bailout
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Investment Funds Mutual funds, hedge funds
– Net asset value (NAV) of the fund is market value, so the incentive for runs is not like the situation faced by banks
– Asset losses will be shared on a pro rata basis, so position in line does not matter
– But, MMFs faced liquidity risk at beginning of the crisis
Hedge funds implicated in some severe liquidity crises– Example: Bear Stearns
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Pertinent Websites
Bank for www.bis.orgInternational Settlements
Federal Reserve www.federalreserve.gov
FDIC www.fdic.gov