CHAPTER 2

Population and Environmental

Change: The Case of Africa

Chapter looks problem of overpopulation through the situation of Africa… a continent frequently cited for:

(1) run away population growth

(2) environmental degradation

Whether this is a valid position to take is questionable

- many ways Africa is under populated

it may in fact require more population to run its environment successfully

--- using population density as a surrogate:

Population Density

World … 115.1 So. Asia … 815.1

Europe … 265.1 Russia … 22.4

East Asia … 330.3 No. America … 42.2

SE Asia … 302.9 Middle America … 165.0

Australia … 7.3 So. America … 48.7

Pacific … 33.0 No. Africa / SW Asia … 64.7

Sub-Saharan Africa … 73.0

UN/World Bank est. that Africa will increase population from 728 million (1995) to 1.49 billion (2025) … approx 100% increase

Interesting: Alexander Carr-Saunders – suggests that the rate of population growth is determined by perceptions of population density economically desirable for a particular way-of- life

- the inability to feed itself--- socio-economic standards do not allow

extensive use of fertilizers / mechanization / etc--- issues of the shortage of foreign capital

[limits importation]--- prohibitively high prices, especially for landlocked countries with inefficient land transportation systems--- legacy of European colonialism and commercial

mono-culture economics

2.3 Africa: Overcrowded or Under populated?

- Neo-Malthusians see Africa as proof that overpopulation equates to poverty and environmental catastrophe

--- that future projected growth will inevitably lead to famine and warfare

[Thus the argument that Africa is becoming overpopulated]

2.3 Africa: Overcrowded or Under populated?, cont- Julian Simon would argue that this population growth provides its own solution[Thus the argument that Africa is under populated]

--- This might also be inferred (as well as Africa’s under-utilization of resources) from the

facts that the continent represents 16% of global land areas, but is home to only 10% of global population and represents only 1% of total

global GDP

2.3.1 High Fertility in Africa

Text cautions against making broad generalizations about the African continent

… can derive some valid population / demographic statistics:

(1) looking at world states having the highest percentage of population as children, 31 of the of

the 43 states having 45% or more of their population below the age of 15 are found in Africa

2.3.1 High Fertility in Africa, cont- Population planners have focused on reducing population growth rates in developing countries

… Africa remains a glaring exception to general success patterns

… growth rates since the mid-1960s have increased [no. of reasons]

2.3.1 High Fertility in Africa, cont

(2) Africa continues to lag behind the rest of the world in contraceptive use

1960-65 1990

East Asia 16% 70%

Latin America 14% 60%

South Asia 8% 40%

Africa 3% 19%

2.3.1 High Fertility in Africa, cont(3) Africa continues to lead the world in the

number of children that a woman will bearAfrica – 5.9Latin America / Caribbean – 3.2Asia – 3.1Australia / Pacific – 2.6North America – 2.0Europe – 1.6

Contributing Factor?

Average number desired children men and womenCountry Men WomenCameroon 11.2 7.1Niger 12.6 8.5Ghana 7.6 5.3Burundi 5.5 5.5Kenya 4.8 4.8 (aver sub-Saharan male will father 10 children)

Why this pattern?

Text tells us that at various times writers have attempted to explain Africa’s high fertility in terms of:

(1) outdated customs of the pre-colonial period --- Demographic Transition Stage 1

population growth

--- “survival necessity” now moot

Why this pattern?

(2) children as wealth flows contribute to

family standard-of-living

--- John Caldwell – Ghana and Nigeria study found working children contributed more than they cost a family positive cash flow

* contrast that to the MDC *

Interesting, though I don’t know if I wholly subscribe to it, is that text observation that wealth flows and large families have been particularly important in understanding women’s attitudes to large families--- bearing a large family places a severe physical and psychological strain on the mother

… however, many children provide the mother a ready-made labor force

… provision of security when the woman is old and infirm

Interesting

Under wealth flows thinking, education may be contra-indicated

Economically

(1) is expensive to the family

(2) decreases family short-term cash flow

(3) increased education carries with it empowerment of women

Culturally

(1) brings with it expansion of Western concepts of the nuclear family and the dependence of children

Why this pattern?

(3) Tradition

- Caldwell shifting from an economic significance to a cultural one

--- high fertility as an outcome of religious tradition, based on ancestor worship

--- the ancestor is “reborn” in the child; thus a very pro-natal / pro-birth attitude

2.3.2 Two views on Population and Rural Environment

Presents the question of the environmental implications of high fertility on the continent of Africai.e: does rapid population growth, with accompanying expansion of grazing / agriculture / development result in deforestation / erosion / wildlife habitat loss

Two opposing viewpoints:

(1) population growth leads to increased demand for food and therefore increased use of the land for farming / livestock raising

… exceeding carrying capacity

… ? What about the promises of the Green Revolution?

(2) Idea that population growth might, in fact, have a positive impact on the

productivity of environments

… a parallel argument to those of Julian Simon

… carrying capacity expanding faster than productivity need

Africa:Major Environmental Concerns

(consistently mentioned by govt leaders)

(1) Land Degradation and Desertification… particularly related to need for food security and self-sufficiency

- Africa contains world’s largest dry lands

… 65% of continental land area

… 30+% considered hyper-desert

… remaining 60+% is classed as arid, semi-desertand dry sub-humid

[this latter region is home to over 400 million Africans]

(1) Land Degradation and Desertification, cont

- African lands are degraded by:

aa. over-grazing

bb. deforestation

(2) Top Soil / Ground Cover Destruction by Agriculture - Land degradation is compounded by:

marginal lands inappropriate technology

mismanagement inequitable distribution

(2) Top Soil / Ground Cover Destruction by Agriculture, cont- land degradation exacerbates:

natural agricultural constraints… variable climate… poor soil quality

[90% deficient in phosphorus; lacking organic material]

… dependence on rainfall irrigation

(2) Top Soil / Ground Cover Destruction by Agriculture, cont

- Agriculture is the primary economic activity in most African countries

--- 20% - 30% of GDP in sub-Saharan Africa

--- 55% of total exports

[excluding petroleum producing countries]

(3) The Protection and Sustainable Use of Forests

- Best estimate that woodlands approx. 38% of land area

--- with average annual deforestation of 0.7%

--- 1990 est. that rainforest represented 7% of African forested lands

[less than 20% of world’s remaining lands]

--- African forests are the most depleted of all the tropical forests; most concentrated in Zaire

(3) The Protection and Sustainable Use of Forests, cont

- Major cause of deforestation is related to forest clearance for agriculture

(1) commercial agriculture

(2) shifting cultivation

(3) settled agriculture village harvesting forests for firewood

… 70% of continental energy produced

… 90% of household energy

(4) Effective Management and Protection of Biodiversity- Spectrum of habitats / complex ecosystem patterns

--- savannah ecosystems most extensive--- spatially limited, where present highlands

result in complex vertical zonation* In these areas, the prevailing threat is loss of

wildlife diversity *--- wetlands represent about 1% spatially and are

spatially widely distributed--- add coastal fringes - the diversity is immense

(5) Water Resource Issues, Including the Problem of Water Scarcity and Efficient Water Management

“Too Much, Too Little, Too Bad”

- Availability is extremely variable both spatially and temporally

- Potential negative impacts of this variability is exacerbated by environmental degradation

- about 4 trillion gallons of water is available annually

… about 4% is utilized

- infrastructure, policy and technical/financial means to use are largely missing… true for both surface and groundwater

(6) Pollution

- Particularly freshwater sources

(7) Climatic Problems

- particularly drought (desertification and starvation)

- ironically infrequent abundance

(endemic disease / parasites / insects)

(8) Demographic Change and Population Pressures on Natural Resources and Urban Areas

(8) Demographic Change and Population Pressures on Natural Resources and Urban Areas, cont

- Underlying causes

aa. Social

bb. Economics

cc. Institutional

dd. Environmental

* For the scope of the class we will stick to Social and Economic… and remember not to be reductionist *

(8) Demographic Change and Population Pressures on Natural Resources and Urban Areas, cont

Social

Inequitable Distribution Migration

Education and Health Conflict and Instability

Economic

Capital Technology Transfer

“The Poor” Resource-based Economics

External Debt Foreign Aid