Chapter 3

Levels of AnalysisAnd

Foreign Policy

Individual-Level Analysis

• Begins with view that the root it is people who make policy

• Involves understanding the human-decision marking process (psychology)

• Groupthink, Individual decisions, etc.• Political Science and Psychology and Sociology

The Human Condition• How do humans affect policy?1.Cognitive decision making: making decisions

within the constraints of bounded rationality, first level of individual-level analysis

2.External boundaries (missing data, incorrect data) may affect decisions

3.Internal boundaries (limited physical and mental capabilities) also play a role

Decision Making

• Seek Cognitive Consistency• Wishful Thinking—We will succeed (regardless

of improbability)• Heuristic Devices – a range of psychological

strategies that allow people to simplify complex decisions. Examples: stereotypes, analolgies

Decision Making

Emotional Factors• Leaders are human tooBiological Factors• Ethology/Animal Instincts• Socialization• Intellect

Decision Making

Gender• Social construct developed by socialization

process• Gender opinion gap

Organizational Behavior

• Second approach to individual-level analysis• People act differently depending on different

settings• Roles based on self-expectations and external

expectations• Groupthink

Leaders and Idiosyncratic Analysis

• Third approach to individual

• Idiosyncratic Analysis:– level analysis; study of humans as individuals and how each leader’s personal (idiosyncratic) characteristics help shape his or her decisions

• How do personal traits affect decisions?

Leaders

1. Personality• Orientations toward self and others • Active-Passive and Positive- Negative Scale

(Active-Negative worst—example, Nixon)2. Physical and Mental Health3. Personality and Ambition4. Political History5. Personal Experience

Rational & Irrational Factors

• Decisions are usually a mix of rational and irrational factors

• Poliheuristic Theory: Considers decision making to be a two stage process

1.During 1st stage, leaders use shortcuts to eliminate policy options, usually for irrational personal reasons

2.2nd stage a more analytic process

State-Level Analysis

• Emphasizes the characteristics of states and how they make foreign policy choices and implement them

1.Government Structure2.Interest Groups3.Leaders4.Political Forces

Types of Governments

• Type of government affects policy decision (authoritarian, democratic, etc)

• Crisis vs. Noncrisis situation (rally cry)

Type of Policy

• Type of policy can vary depending on the issue area

• Intermestic Policy: Foreign policy that has an immediate and direct domestic impact

• Pure foreign policy: issues that have little to no obvious impact on citizens

Political Culture

• Concept that refers to a society’s general, long-held, and fundamental practices and attitudes. These are based on a country’s historical experiences and on the values (norms) of its citizens. These attitudes are often an important part of how policy is made.

Who makes Foreign Policy?

• Political executives• Bureaucracies• Legislative bodies• Political Opponents• Interest Groups• The Citizens

System-Level Analysis

• All systems have identifiable characteristics1.How Authority is Organized2.Scope and Level of Interaction among actors

in the system

Organization of Authority

• Vertical Authority Structure: Subordinate unites are substantially regulated by higher levels of authority

• Horizontal Authority Structure: Few , if any, higher authorities in such systems; powers fragmented

World stage is mostly horizontal

Organization of Authority

• State-centric system: anarchic, no overarching authority

• Anarchic nature greatly influences policy

• Range, frequency and intensity of interactions between nations affect decisions

Power Relationships

• Reality of the system• Power Poles• Unipolar system• Power and Situation

Economic Realities

• Shape policy• Natural Resource Production• Consumption pattersn

Norms

• Nuking not acceptable• Diversity = differences