chapter 3 motives and determinants of...
TRANSCRIPT
CHAPTER 3
MOTIVES AND DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN
DIRECT INVESTMENT A THEORETICAL SURVEY
83
3.0 INTRODUCTION
After the downfall of the socialist planned economy and with the beginning of
transition towards market economy attracting of foreign direct investment has been an
important objective of every economy that has long-term goals of economic welfare.
Foreign direct investment can bring positive effects such as market access,
technology, capital, and skills to developing countries. Therefore, developing country
governments are increasingly searching for best-practice policies to attract more FDI
inflows. Theoretical and empirical research in this field pays great attention to the
definition of the main factors or determinants and motives of the FDI flows.
The determinants and motives of FDI have a wide spectrum; each firm considers
certain aspects crucial from its own point of view. On the basis of orientation, most of
the FDI can be classified into 3 categories:
(i) Natural Resources oriented
(ii) Labour oriented and
(iii) Market oriented
When a country undertakes foreign investment in a natural resources oriented
industry, quite obviously, its objectives is to be able to import easy and relatively
cheaper products from the host country. The investing country may be lacking in such
a natural resource-oriented commodity or the same may be its comparatively
disadvantages industry.
In this case, the investing MNCs tend to integrate production and marketing, thereby
monopolizing or oligopolising the benefits available from the exploitation of such
natural resources. Resources like oil and copper were in this way, monopolized by a
few MNCs.
Natural resource-oriented investment is no doubt trade generating. But the net result
of the operations of the MNCs in such fields is that the countries endowed with these
resources get only marginal benefits, unless the host governments have protected their
interests at the time of signing the contract.
84
The labour-oriented investment is also trade generating. In the developed countries,
capital intensive and knowledge intensive industries are being created almost every
year. Wages therefore, are becoming higher and higher with the passage of time.
MNCs find themselves unable to meet the growing wage bill in their home countries.
Therefore, they undertake FDI in those countries, where wages are relatively lower
and where the wages are very low, as in developing countries, that countries will be
the first choice for these corporations for transferring their labour intensive
operations. The products manufactured by the subsidiaries of these corporations can
be imported by the parent corporations for marketing in the home country. The
subsidiaries can also export such goods to third countries. Such foreign investment,
thus, helps in the reorganization of the international division of labour, as also in the
exposition of trade between labour abundant and labour scare nations.
The market-oriented FDI is generally induced by trade barriers imposed by the host
countries. In case the tariffs on the final product are very heavy, the MNCs would like to
export machinery, equipment technology, intermediate materials, parts and components,
etc., to the host country and undertake actual production there only. In this way, the
corporation might be helping the host country in its import substitution efforts.1
It is, however, possible that because of the protection provided to the industry, it may
not necessarily be competitive in the international market. But in case, because of the
availability of cheap labour, such an import substitution industry becomes export
oriented, then there will hardly be any differences between the trade barriers induced
investment and labour oriented investment.
3.1 THEORIES OF FDI
The importance and growing interest in the causes and consequences of FDI has led to
the development of a number of theories that try to explain why MNCs indulge in
1 - There are exceptions to this generalized observation. For instance, it is always possible that FDI is undertaken for the manufacture of new product industries, even when no trade barriers exist. The objective of such an action could be to maintain oligopolistic character of a corporation; it is also possible to internationalize production & marketing through vertical and horizontal integration.
85
FDI, why they choose one country in preference to another to locate their foreign
business activity, and why they choose a particular entry mode. These theories also
try to explain why some countries are more successful than others in obtaining FDI.
Theories play an important role in shaping legal attitudes both nationally and
internationally.
At the theoretical level, the major explanations of FDI encompassing motives and
determinants can be classified into Macro and Micro economic approaches. Such
explanations are based on levels of income and development, trade parameters,
technology, theories of commercial policy, currency factors and firm specific factors
including administrative and managerial approaches, ownership advantage and
internationalization factors. In addition, there are radical approaches based on Marxist
principles and exploitation modes.
3.1.1 Macro Economic Approaches
These approaches include comparative advantages and levels of development approach.
The Comparative Advantage Approach has been developed by Kojima (1973-78) which
establishes correspondence between comparative costs (affecting international trade) and
comparative profitability (affecting international investment) stressing that both trade and
investment should be guided by a common theory. A firm will choose to invest abroad by
extending its operations rather than investing in a domestic company operating in the
country in which it is interested as long as the income it expects to earn is greater. This
will occur whenever the investing company possesses some advantages over its foreign
competitor which are not readily available to it and are sufficient to compensate for the
disadvantages of operating a subsidiary at a distance.
These advantages as described by kindleberger (1969) may take various forms and
include superior technology, patterns, access to markets, and entrepreneurial expertise
and experience and economies of integration and so on. A firm will wish to fully
exploit these benefits rather than share them with potential competitors and this
encourages that firm to undertake direct investment rather than portfolio investment.
The more significant the advantages, the greater the likelihood of monopoly profits
being earned, and the more a firm is encouraged to engage in direct investment. The
86
traditional theory suggests that where the cost of producing a certain quantity of
output for export to a particular country, plus distribution and marketing costs is
greater than the cost of producing the same product in the country is concerned; it will
pay the exporting company to set up local production facilities. FDI follows this
principle because such type of investment raises income both in home and host
countries. Thus this theory is an important determinant of FDI.
The level of development is another important determinant of FDI. This approach is
developed by Dunning. It explains how net outward investment position of a country
is related to the various stages of development. Using data on the flows of FDI and
per capita GDP of 67 countries covering the period 1967-75, Dunning has shown that
after a "threshold" per capita income has been reached, further increases are
associated with rising gross outward and gross inward investment but the shape of net
outward investment takes a U or J type shape.
Earlier the countries were divided into four stages of development defined by the
average per capita income range.2 However, the concept of the investment
development path (IDP) has been revised and extended in several papers and books
(Dunning 1986, 1988, 1993, Narula 1993, 1995; Dunning & Narula 1994, 1996).
According to the revised studies there are five stages of development outlined below.
Stage 1: There is no gross outward investment either because the country's own
enterprises have no specific advantages, or are exploited by minority direct
investment. Smallness of gross inward investment may be due to small market size,
poor infrastructure facilities and lack of trained and educated work force.
Stage 2: Inward investment is more which leads to expand "Domestic market" in such
an environment where infrastructural facilities are; MNCs tend to invest there.
Outward investment is small as the domestic enterprises are yet to develop fully the
ownership specific advantages. Frequently inbound FDI is stimulated by host
government's imposing desirable tariff and non-tariff barriers. A country must possess 2 - The overlapping income ranges in stages 3 and 4 suggest that in more developed stages, investments behaviour cannot be explained by per capita income.
87
some desirable locational (L) characteristics to attract inward direct investment,
although the extent to which foreign firms are able to exploit these will depend upon
its development strategy and the extent to which it prefers to develop technological
capabilities of domestic firms.
The extent to which outward direct investment is undertaken will be influenced by
home country indeed push factors such as subsidies of exports and technology
development or acquisition, as well as the changing (non-government induced) L
advantages such as relative production costs.
Stage 3: In this stage, a country begins to get specialization in direct investment. The
country seeks to attract inward direct investment in those sectors in which the
comparative location advantages are strongest and comparative ownership advantages
of its enterprises are weakest. Countries in stage 3 are marked by a gradual decrease
in the rate of growth of outward direct investment, and an increase in the rate of
growth of outward direct investment, and an increase in the rate of growth of outward
direct investment that results in increasing NOI (Net Outward Investment).
Comparative advantages in labour incentive activities will deteriorate, domestic
wages will rise, and outward direct investment will be directed more to countries at
lower stage in their investment development path. The original O advantages of
foreign firms also begin to be eroded, as domestic firms acquire their own
comparative advantages and compete with them in the same sectors. The role of
government induced advantages is likely to be less significant in Stage 3, as those of
FDI induced ownership advantages take on more importance.
Stage 4: It is a situation in which local firms develop strong ownership advantages to
be reaped best through internationalization of foreign investment abroad. Firms are
induced to invest abroad due to rising domestic labour costs, lower rates of
productivity.
Stage 5: During stage 5, the NOI position of a country first falls and later fluctuates
around the zero level. At the same time, both inward and outward FDI are likely to
continue to increase. This is the scenario which advanced industrial nations are now
approaching. Stage 5 of IDP represents a situation in which no single country has an
88
absolute hegemony of created assets. Moreover, the O advantage of MNCs will be
less dependent on their country's natural resources but more on their ability to acquire
assets an on the ability of firms to organize their advantages efficiency and to exploit
the gains of costs border common governance.
3.1.2 Micro Economic Approaches
Micro economic theories are mainly theories of market structure imperfections and
market failure imperfections. In market structure imperfections, there are theories in
which the behaviour of the firm deviates from that assumed under conditions of
perfect competition, through their ability to influence market prices. Under market
failure imperfections we will consider theories which depart from the technical
assumption behind the model of perfect markets that is the assumptions about
production technique and commodity properties. This category will deal basically
with those phenomena which lead to market failure or cases where "the decentralizing
efficiency of that regime of signals, rules and built in sanctions which define a
"market system" will fail.
A. Industrial Organization Approach
The recognition that FDI belongs to the realm of industrial organization, goes back to
Hymer's writings in 1960s and the 70s. Since then, it has received much attention and
has become the most popular approach to date. The industrial organization approach
has come to be favored by Lemfalussy (1961) and Kindleberger (1969) and an
impressive array of scholars like, Knickerboker (1973); Caves (1948) and Dunning
(1974). There are two essential characteristic which set oligopolistic industries apart
from competitive ones. First the former are industries where maximising decisions
whether profit or growth are inter dependent, each firm much speculates on the
reactions of the few other firms in the industry. Second barriers to entry are essential
in order to prevent a surge in competition.
Notable barriers to entry lend themselves to direct expansion abroad leaving aside
vertical foreign investments which respond to barriers of a different kind. Caves
(1971) considered product differentiation in the home market as being the critical
element giving rise to foreign investment.
89
Why corporations undertake horizontal investments abroad to produce the same
general level of goods as they, produce at home has been explained in several ways.
Hymer (1976) and Giddy and Rugman (1979) have suggested the importance of some
unique asset of the firm, a patented invention or a differentiated product on which it
can earn maximum profit in foreign markets only through foreign production. For the
possession of some special asset to lead the firm to invest abroad two conditions must
be satisfied. First the asset must partake the character of a public good within the firm
such as knowledge fundamental to the production of a profitable sale able commodity.
Any advantage embodied in knowledge, information or technique that yields a
positive return over direct costs in the market where it is first proven can potentially
do the sunk costs associated with its initial discovery. Knowledge would seem to be
the hypothetical asset displaying the character of a public good propriety to the firm
but it is not the only one.
The essential feature of an asset conducive to foreign investment is not that its
opportunity cost should be zero but that it should be low relative to return available via
foreign investment. Second, the return attainable on a firm's special asset in a foreign
market must depend at least somewhat on local production. Thus the firm investing
abroad must not only enjoy enough of an information advantage in its special asset to
offset the information disadvantage of its alien status; it must also find production abroad
profitable to any other means of extracting this rent from a foreign market.
These requirements, taken together, point to a particular trait of market structures-
product differentiations as one necessary characteristic of industries in which
substantial direct investment occurs. A differentiated product is a collection of
functionally similar goods produced by competing sellers, but with each seller's
product distinguishable from its rivals by minor physical variations, brand name and
subjective distinctions created by advertising or differences in the ancillary terms and
conditions of sale.
In the nature of differentiation, a successful variety is protected from exact imitation
by trademarks, high costs of physical imitation or both. The successful firm producing
a differentiated product, control knowledge about servicing the domestic market that
90
can be used at little or no cost in other national markets. This provides the motivation
for investing abroad; as long the means to protect the market exist; such as patents
and copyright.
Survey evidence shows that firms very frequently test a foreign market by exports and
then switch over to local production through a subsidiary for better adaptation of the
product to the local market or superior or lower cost of ancillary service that can be
provided. These advantages of local production hold for producer as well as consumer
goods; although the highest of differentiation are found in the latter; they are not
necessarily absent in the former and marketing advantages of having production
goods. MNCs are always keen to maintain oligopolistic character. They cannot
survive this position, if they continue operating within the home country. Even if their
oligopolistic nature survives in the short run, it will not be there in the long run.
Therefore, they want to invest abroad so that their oligopolistic character is not only
strengthened but also expanded.
B. The Product Life Cycle Approach
This hypothesis was developed by Vernon (1966) to explain the expansion of US
MNCs after the Second World War. According to this hypothesis, 'products go
through a cycle of initiation, exponential growth, slow-down and decline a sequence
that corresponds to the process of introduction, spread, maturation and senescence`.
This hypothesis is useful because it offers another interpretation of FDI, particularly
for manufactured products that are characterized by advanced technology and high
income elasticity of demand.
FDI takes place as the cost of production becomes an important consideration, which
is the case when the product reaches maturity and standardization. FDI is thus a
defensive move to maintain the firm's competitive position against its domestic and
foreign rivals. The product life cycle hypothesis predicts that, over time, the home
country where the innovative product first appeared switches from an exporting to an
importing country. This prediction is consistent with the pattern of dynamic changes
observed for many products. For example, personal computers were first developed
by US firms (such as IBM and Apple Computers) and exported to foreign markets.
91
When personal computers became standardized, the USA became a net importer from
producers based in Japan, Korea and Taiwan. The exporters include foreign firms as
well as subsidiaries of US companies located in these countries.
Gruber (1967) found a strong association between the propensity to invent new
products, export performance, FDI and the ratio of local production to exports on the
one hand, and R&D expenditure of the US industries on the other. The association
between the ratio of local production to export and R&D expenditure is interpreted as
an indication of the substitution of FDI for exports in host countries in the final stage
of a product cycle.
It is noteworthy that Vernon's original theory was developed in the 1960s, when the
USA was the unquestioned leader in R&D and product innovation. Now, product
innovation takes place outside the USA, and new products are introduced
simultaneously in many advanced countries. Thus, production facilities may be
located in several countries right from the beginning, and the international system of
production is becoming too complicated to be explained by a simple version of the
product life cycle hypothesis.
This is why the hypothesis has been extended to take into account not only labour costs
but also other factor costs, and has been generalized to apply to the FDI of all developed
countries. One has to admit that the applicability of the product cycle hypothesis is
restricted to highly innovative industries, and that it is an oversimplification of the firm's
decision-making process. However, it should be borne in mind that the hypothesis was
based originally on the US experience, and offered a useful explanation for the interaction
between production, exports and FDI during the 1950s and 1960s.
C. The Eclectic Theory
The eclectic theory was developed by Dunning (1977, 1979, and 1988) by integrating
the industrial organization hypothesis, the internalization hypothesis and the location
hypothesis without being too precise about how they interrelate. The eclectic theory
aims at answering the following questions. First, if there is demand for a particular
commodity in a particular country, why is it not met by a local firm producing in the
same country, or by a foreign firm exporting from another country?
92
And, second, supposed that a firm wants to expand its scale of operations, why does it
not do so via other channels? These other channels include the following: (i)
producing in the home country and exporting to the foreign country; (ii) expanding
within the home country; (iii) indulging in portfolio investment in the foreign country;
and (iv), licensing its technology to foreign firms that carry out the production. It
seems that the answer to these questions is that a foreign subsidiary can out-compete
other potential suppliers in the foreign market, and that FDI is more profitable than
other means of expansion. The eclectic theory attempts to answer to this question and
the related questions.
According to this theory, three conditions must be satisfied if a firm is to engage in
FDI. First, it must have a comparative advantage over other firms arising from the
ownership of some intangible assets. These are called Ownership (O) advantages,
which include things like the right to a particular technology, monopoly power and
size, access to raw material, and access to cheap finance. Second, it must be more
beneficial for the firm to use this advantages that rather than to sell or lease them.
These are the Internalization (I) advantages that refer to the choice between
accomplishing expansion within the firm and selling the rights to the means of
expansion to other firms. Third, it must be more profitable to use these advantages in
combination with at least some factor inputs located abroad. If this is not the case,
then exports would do the job. These are the Locational (L) advantages, which pertain
to the question of whether expansion is best, accomplished at home or abroad.
The eclectic theory suggests that all forms of FDI can be explained by reference to its
conditions. It recognizes that advantages arising from Ownership, Internalization and
Location (OIL) may change over time, and accepts that if country-specific
characteristics are important determinants of FDI, it may be invalid to generalize from
one country's experience to another.
D. Business Administration Approach
This theory concentrates on the growth of the firms. It views the activities of direct
foreign investment as a natural consequence of the growth of a firm. This theory is
based on the logic that when a corporation expands, it tries to capture as much of the
93
domestic market as possible. When the corporation can no longer expand within the
confines of the domestic market, it undertakes exportation. And thus, an export division is
established. When export business expands, export division is converted into an
international business with relation to a particular country or region becomes very large,
subsidiaries are established in the concentrated country or region. In the course of time,
for the same region, subsidiaries are established all over the world. And, although some
autonomy is granted to its subsidiaries, in respect of a number of maters, there is central
control from the corporate head quarters based in the parent country.
Consequently the firm faces new problems such as negotiation with foreign
government, the handling of foreign currencies and other assets, dealing with foreign
laborers, arbitrations of international conflicts and so forth.
There are many proponents of the business administration approach. Mention may
be made of Penrose (1959), Fayerweather (1969), Stopford and Wells (1972),
Robinson (1973).
Elementary, as it may seem in its nature, the business administration approach was the
first to tackle the problem of direct foreign investment and still is most influential. It
may, however, be pointed out that this theory is based on the assumption of
prevalence of perfect competition both in domestic and foreign market.
E. International Division of Labour Approach
Many attempts have been made to suggest an International Division of Labour based
theory of direct foreign investment. The theory defines managerial resources as the
specific factors. These managerial resources include capital, technology and
managerial know-how. These factors are specific to the individual industries. As
against this, labour is a general factor.
While specific factors can move not only domestically but also internationally within the
same industry, the general factor can move freely between industries but only domestically.
Since, managerial resources are specific factors and do not move between industries
within a country, the rate of profits differs from industry to industry. This will certainly
result in differences in the profit rate for the same industry in different countries.
94
Kojima (1978) is not in full agreement with the thesis developed by Ikemoto and
others that production technology and industry specific capital stocks may be treated
as specific factors. According to him, if it is assumed that managerial resources are
specific factors, then it means that we are justifying "enclave type direct foreign
investment of monopolistic or oligopolistic enterprises. This obviously is not the
intention. Therefore, whether the factors of production are "specific" or "general" may
depend upon the length of time horizons. It seems to be more reasonable to suppose
that general factors move domestically as well as internationally to the place where
immobile or specific factors are located. For instance, managerial resources tend to
move to those places, where rich natural deposits are located or to those places where
cheap labor is available. Hence, while managerial resources should be treated as
general factors, other production factors like labour and natural resources may be
treated as specific factors.
According to the international division of labour based theory of direct foreign
investment suggested by Kojima, the Hecksher Ohlin model may be formulated, using
labour and managerial resources in place of labour and capital. These managerial
resources include "not only material capital but also human capital such as technology
and skills". The comparative cost difference emerges as a result of differences
between the two countries in the labour/managerial resources ratio. Comparative
profit rates are directly related to comparative cost differences. International trade
tends to move in the direction dictated by comparative costs, which is also the
direction dictated by comparative profit rates.
Foreign direct investment, too, tends to move to the direction indicated by
comparative profit rates. So, Kojima suggests that both international trade and FDI
should be discussed and analysed under the same principle of international division of
labour based on the principle of comparative costs or comparative profit rates.
F. Tariff Wall Jumping Approach
The proponents of this theory of foreign investment suggest that in case the host
country had levied tariffs indeed heavy tariffs on the goods it was importing from the
investing country, the latter was bound to set up manufacturing facilities in the firm.
95
That is to say, FDI is bound to take place behind a tariff wall. In order to cross the tariff
wall, the investing country replaces its export to the host country by undertaking FDI.
G. The Differential Rates of Return Approach
The differential rates of return represent one of the first attempts to explain FDI flows.
This theory postulates that capital flows from countries with low rates of return to
countries with high rates of return move in a process that leads eventually to the
equality of real rates of return. The rationale of this hypothesis is that firms
considering FDI behave in such a way as to equate the marginal return on and the
marginal cost of capital. The hypothesis obviously assumes risk neutrality, making the
rate of return the only variable upon which the investment decision depends. Risk
neutrality in this case implies that the investor considers domestic and FDI to be
perfect substitutes, or in general that direct investment in any country, including the
home country, is a perfect substitute for direct investment in any other country. One
problem with the differential rates of return approach is that it is not consistent with
the observation that countries experience inflows and outflows of FDI simultaneously.
This is because a rate of return differential implies capital flows in one direction only,
from the low-rate country to the high-rate country, and not vice versa.
Another problem is that testing is based on the rate return calculated from reported
profit, which is different from expected profit and actual profit. Furthermore,
accounting profit cannot produce a reliable and objective measure of the rate of
return, since it can be influenced by many subjective and procedural factors, such as
the method used for writing off fixed assets, inventory accounting (FIFO versus
LIFO), and inflation accounting.
The validity of the differential rates of return hypothesis can be questioned on
theoretical grounds. First, MNCs may indulge in FDI for reasons other than profit; the
objective may be to maximize sales revenue in accordance with market penetration
objective. In general, MNCs are faced with a multiplicity of objectives for their
international operations, and these objectives are likely to change with the passage of
time. More importantly, however, risk aversion implies that the FDI decision does not
only depend on return, but also on risk.
96
H. The Portfolio Diversification Approach
Risk is another variable upon which the FDI decision is made. If this proposition
is accepted, then the differential rate of return approach becomes inadequate, in
which case we resort to the portfolio diversification approach to explain FDI. The
choice among various projects is therefore guided not only by the expected rate of
return but also by risk. The idea of reducing risk via diversification that is relevant
to portfolio investment is also used here. Because of risk aversion, a rate of return
differential will not induce capital flows in one direction until the differential
disappears via arbitrage. The problem with this hypothesis is that; first, risk and
return are calculated from reported profit that is unlikely to be equal to actual
profit for several reasons, including transfer pricing and accounting procedure.
Second, the risk variable cannot be measured accurately from historical data if it is
taken to be the variance or standard deviation.
However, it remains true that the diversification approach, which takes risk into
account, is superior to the differential rates of return approach, for the following
reasons. First, the diversification approach offers the main advantage that it can be
generalized. Second, it considers risk, which constitutes a very important element in
FDI decisions. Like the differential rates of return approach, the portfolio
diversification does not explain why MNCs are the greatest contributors to FDI, and
why they prefer FDI to portfolio investment. One explanation, perhaps, is financial
market imperfections. Since in DCs, financial markets are not only imperfect but also
making portfolio investment less attractive than FDI. Another factor is the degree of
control which MNCs prefer FDI over portfolio investment because FDI gives more
control over foreign investment.
3.2 HOST COUNTRY PULL FACTORS
Most of the theories explained above mention only the hose country macro-economic,
industry specific and firm specific push factors. But it is also necessary that host
country must possess certain locational advantages to attract FDI. The push factors
explain the outward investment by different countries while the pull factors explain
the uneven distribution of FDI among the recipient countries.
97
The decision of an enterprise in an industrial country to invest directly in a developing
country is motivated by a higher expected profitability as compared to the alternative
investment possibilities at home or in other industrialized countries. The relative
advantage of such investment depends upon both economic and non-economic
influences. Even if present economic conditions seem satisfactory and suggest good
prospects for the future, it is entirely possible that they will not materialize due to
unfavorable non-economic conditions. It is therefore necessary to consider both
economic and non-economic determinants of investment decisions. Host country pull
factors can be grouped under two heads i.e. economic and non-economic factors.
3.2.1 Economic Factors
The economic factors have been discussed under the following sub-factors:
A. The Market Size and Characteristics
Market size is one of the most important considerations in making investment location
decisions. Indeed, larger economies have attracted the bulk of world wide FDI.
According to the market size hypothesis, the volume of FDI in a host country depends
on its market size, which is measured by the sales of a MNC in that country, or by the
country's GDP (that is, the size of the economy). As soon as the size of the market of
a particular country has grown to a level warranting the exploitation of economies of
scale, the country becomes a potential target for FDI inflows.
The relationship between direct investment and output can be derived from
neoclassical models of domestic investment. The rationale for the hypothesis that
firms increase their investment in response to their sales is based on neoclassical
domestic investment theories.
One way to test the market size hypothesis is to find out whether or not the share of FDI of
a given country going to a group of host countries is correlated with the individual income
level of the host country. The empirical studies seem to support the hypothesis that higher
levels of sales and the host country's income are related positively to FDI.
A number of survey studies have also dealt with market size as a determinant of FDI.
The majorities of empirical studies of the determinants of FDI include some measures
98
of market size in the host country, typically using real GDP as a proxy and found it to
be a significant determinant of FDI. But studies based on Australian data, failed to
find a relationship between FDI flows and GDP. According to this study the growth
rate of GDP may be regarded as a measure of the future potential of the host country's
domestic market, while per capita income may be used to represent the level of host
country's economic development. Finally, size does matter, according to a recent
survey by A.T. Kearney, the results of which were summarized in The Economist
issue dated 17 February 2000. This survey is based on the views of 135 executives of
the world's 1000 largest companies. The ranking of countries from the top to bottom
of the list did not exactly match the ranking of countries in terms of size, because of
the influence of other determinants of FDI.
B. Availability of Cheap and Skilled Labour Force and Raw Material
The continued expansion of transnational corporation was, in the past, a response to
the differential availability of factor endowments in various countries. In the case of
labour intensive industry, the availability or non availability of labour is an important
factor. Cheap labour availability reduces the cost of production and yields high
profitability. Low wage rate in developing countries encourages the inflow of FDI.
The availability of well trained human resources may be a powerful incentive for
investment, especially in the manufacturing and service sector which often require
access to skilled labour and technical and managerial personnel. This presupposes a
certain educational infrastructure and facilities for vocational training. If these
resources are not available locally, the freedom to employ needed foreign nationals is
necessary. The degree of discipline in labour/management relationship in the host
country may also prove to be an important factor, especially in industrial and labour
intensive investment.
The availability of raw material for the manufacturing industry is an important factor
in making the investment decision. If the raw material is available locally the cost of
production remains low, as the transportation of the raw material from the other
places, which would entail huge expenses, is saved. It is only the availability but the
sustained availability of raw material at a place with matters in investment decisions.
In case of planned and long term industrial investments the availability of raw
99
material for short period is not considered favourable. The search of reliable sources
of raw material to feed the growing industrialization had motivated industry to move
beyond the national boundaries right from the middle of the nineteenth century.
C. Economic Policy of the Host Country
Industrial policy of the host country is also one of the important determinants of FDI.
Industrial policy encouraging private sector investment, having liberal attitude
towards mergers, conglomerates and industrial concentration increases the inflow of
FDI. Clarity of policies and rules and predictability in their application are more
important than special incentives to foreign investors. Accurate and up-to-date
information on investment opportunities as well as data on general economic trends,
are of great relevance to any prudent investor. Clearly defined development programs
which elaborate priorities and identify sectoral opportunities are also useful. A
government can significantly improve its national investment climate by adopting
macro economic policies to encourage efficient utilization resources.
Every foreign investor wants to take home the profits he earns from investment
abroad as well as the capital which he has invested. But foreign investor's choice most
of the times, regulated by the rules of the host country in respect of repatriation of
profit and capital. Restriction on the transfer of dividends to foreign investors or loan
payments impairs confidence in the long term viability of investments. Freedom to
remit profits and dividends and repatriate capital is clearly an essential ingredient in
an attractive climate for foreign investment.
Many countries impose limitations on the operations of foreign companies. A
government may introduce regulations restricting foreign investment in certain sectors
to ensure its conformity with development priorities. Entry into politically sensitive
industries, such as public utilities, the media, banking and insurance, has been
restricted in most developing countries. Industries with relatively small technology or
modest financial requirements have also been reserved for local enterprises. Other
restrictions relate to the access to local capital market etc. Specific performance
requirement on foreign investors are also common especially in association with an
offer of incentives. They include domestic content minima, export obligations,
100
employment quotas, establishment of research and development facilities, and
appointment of host country national to senior managerial positions, and limits on the
duration of technology licensing agreements.
Trade policy of the host country is one of the important factors determining the flow
of FDI. Protectionist policies provide a stimulus to import substituting FDI and at
least in countries with large and medium sized home markets, this type of FDI is
likely to be predominant until import substitution possibilities are exhausted. But
protection makes it difficult to export and to attract FDI in export activities. Import
liberalization, export promotion measures and establishing of free trade zones or
export processing zones play a significant role in attracting export oriented FDI. Both
theory and experience have combined to show that other things being equal, countries
pursuing export promotion strategies rather than import substitution, attract more FDI
and in more economically valuable ways.
Tax structure in the host country also influences the inflow of FDI. There is some
empirical evidence to show a negative correlation between tax rates and FDI flows.
Bilateral agreements between the host and home country governments, signals the
government's commitment to a stable investment environment and thereby enhances
the investor's confidence. Liberal banking activities, developed and stabilized call
market, good and reliable capital markets also encourage the inflow of FDI.
Intellectual property protection is one of the important factors influencing technology
transfer and investment decisions. The weakness of a developing country's system of
intellectual property protection discourages the inflow of FDI in certain industries.
Appropriate exchange rate policy is of great importance in attracting foreign
investment once private firms an individual can shift assets among currencies legally,
they can hedge against perceived risks of policy deterioration. When governments
engage in policies which are judged by the public to be unsustainable, flight from
local currency will occur, this will bring down the level of international reserves.
Thus, foreign direct investors want exchange rates and interest rates to be allowed to
adjust to changing inflation rates. If exchange rates, in particular, are not allowed to
101
reflect cross national differences in inflation rates, investors are exposed to price
distortions in their cost and revenues that can threaten their long run competitive
position. Although, they prefer stable exchange rates in the short run, they do not
want exchange rates to be inflexible and insensitive to basic price and income forces
in the long run. Currency convertibility, unified and stable exchange rate is expected
to bring in more FDI.
D. Infrastructure Facilities
The establishment of industry requires a highly developed infrastructure. The
development of roads, rail transport system, electricity and communication system are
important infrastructural elements which are vital for the development of industry.
These factors are responsible for the attracting of FDI. The lack of such facilities in a
country hinders the inflow of FDI.
3.2.2 Non- Economic Factors
The political and socio-cultural factors are considered in non-economic factors.
Investor's costs and revenues are not only affected by economic conditions, they are
also dependent on political conditions, including the stability of the political system.
A country in which there is political unrest or in which there is a threat of having the
investment nationalised without adequate compensation is more of a risk and less
attractive to invest in, than in a country offering political stability and a guarantee of
property rights. The political attitudes of the stable government becomes known to the
world at large over a period of years and the investment decisions become easy to take.
On the other hand, if the government is not stable, the investors tend to keep away.
Perceptions of political risk can greatly discourage foreign investments in
developing countries. Investors may screen out some host countries as too risky
at the preliminary stage of the decision making process, thus preventing the
identification of investment opportunities in those countries. Direct investment
decisions, which are long term by nature, are particularly vulnerable to the
prospect of political instability, especially if investment would be susceptible to
major damage or interruption.
102
There are quantitative and qualitative costs attached to perceptions of instability in
developing countries. Qualitatively, if the risk profile is perceived to be too high, the
projected investment will not be too high; the projected investment will not be made,
thus decreasing the overall welcome of capital inflows into the host country.
Qualitatively, uncertainty about the medium and long time horizon may limit
investors to ventures that yield high rates of return over a short period, neglecting
important investment opportunities involving longer gestation periods.
The behaviour of the legislative, executive and judicial branches of the host country
also affects the inflow of FDI. Frequent changes in legislation, breaches of contractual
arrangement and unavailability of a credible and independent judicial system
represent important shortcoming in the legal aspects of the investment climate for
local and foreign investors alike which cannot be rectified merely by issuing a
favourable investment code.
If the consumer's tastes and culture are similar to those in the home country, if there is
acceptance of advertising or other persuasive marketing method, if the attitude of the
public is friendly towards foreign investment, then there is more possibility of FDI
coming into the country. Consumerism and demonstration effect in the host country
also influence the flow of international direct investment in that country.
To conclude, the relative significance of the motives and determinants as contained in
the above theories differs not only between firms and regions but also from time to
time for a particular firm or region. The differences in the strength of the determinants
are most marked between developed and developing countries which differ radically
with regard to economic structure, development characteristics and socio-economic
structure, development characteristics and socio-economic profiles.