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Predicting the MarketsChapter 4 Charts:
Predicting InflationYardeni Research, Inc.
May 11, 2018
Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist
Mali QuintanaSenior Economist
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
May 11, 2018 / Chapter 4 Charts: Predicting Inflation www.yardeni.com
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Predicting Inflation 1-26
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
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-3
-2
-1
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1
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11
12
13
14
15
16
US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Apr
yardeni.com
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 1.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20-4
-2
0
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12
14
16
18
20
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-2
0
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18
20
US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Apr
CPI InflationHeadlineCore*
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* Excluding food and energy.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 2.
Predicting Inflation
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67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 842
7
12
17
22
27
32
3742
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
3742
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE1967-1984
(dollars per barrel, monthly, ratio scale)
* Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 1946 to 1984, daily thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics.
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eni.
com
Figure 3.
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 842
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX &AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 1967-1984
(yearly percent change)
InflationAverage Hourly Earnings*CPI
* Production & nonsupervisory workers.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 4.
Predicting Inflation
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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9
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12
13
T
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS*(yearly percent change)
Apr
* Production & nonsupervisory workers.Note: T = President Reagan fires members of PATCO on August 5, 1981. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau ofEconomic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 5.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 215
10
15
20
5
10
15
20
2017
UNION MEMBERS(as a percent of private wage & salary employment)
Private SectorUnion Membership
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 6.
Predicting Inflation
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
Apr
AGE WAVE & INFLATION
Inflation Trend**
Age Wave*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.** Five-year percent change in CPI at annual rate.* Percent of labor force 16-34 years old.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
PRODUCTIVITY: NONFARM BUSINESS(20-quarter percent change, annual rate)
Q1
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 8.
Predicting Inflation
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64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1
GDP IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS(2009=100)
Price DeflatorsInformation ProcessingEquipmentSoftware
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Feb
RETAIL SALES: GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES (GMS) & ONLINE SHOPPING(as percent of total In-Store + Online GAFO*)
Percent of Total GAFO*Online**GMS: Warehouse Clubs & Super StoresGMS: Department Stores & Others
* GAFO (general merchandise, apparel and accessories, furniture, and other sales) includes retailers that specialize in department-store types of merchandisesuch as furniture & home furnishings, electronics & appliances, clothing & accessories, sporting goods, hobby, book, and music, general merchandise,office supply, stationery, and gift stores.
** Electronic shopping and mail order houses.Source: Census Bureau and Haver Analytics.
yard
eni.
com
Figure 10.
Predicting Inflation
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18001810
18201830
18401850
18601870
18801890
19001910
19201930
19401950
20
40
60
80
100
20
40
60
80
100US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 1800-1947
War of 1812(1812-1815)
Civil War(1861-1865)
World War I(1914-1918)
World War II(1939-1945)
* Annual data. Base index from 1800 to 1947 is 1967 = 100.** 1982-84=100.
Source: Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States.
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19481958
19681978
19881998
20082018
2028
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
OctCPI**
Cold War(1947-1989)
Figure 11.
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-2
0
2
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16
18
20
-2
0
2
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16
18
20
Mar
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: ADVANCED ECONOMIES(yearly percent change)
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Source: IMF.
Figure 12.
Predicting Inflation
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72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mar
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JAPAN(yearly percent change)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Apr
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES: DURABLE GOODS(percent change)
USEurozoneJapanSwedenSwitzerlandTaiwanUK
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 14.
Predicting Inflation
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98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
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6
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10
12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
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8
10
12
Apr
CHINA: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Apr
CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 16.
Predicting Inflation
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49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2390
95
100
105
110
90
95
100
105
110
OUTPUT GAP: ACTUAL DIVIDED BY POTENTIAL REAL GDP(percent)
Q1
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Congressional Budget Office and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 17.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2290
95
100
105
110
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
Mar
RESOURCE UTILIZATION RATE & OUTPUT GAP(percent)
Resource Utilization Rate*
Output Gap**
* Average of all industries’ capacity utilization rate and employment rate, i.e., percentage of labor force that is employed.** Actual divided by potential real GDP in percent.
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Reserve Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
Predicting Inflation
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49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 274.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5NON-ACCELERATING INFLATION RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT (NAIRU):ESTIMATED & PROJECTED(percent)
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
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Figure 19.
49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09 14 19 24 29-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Q1
NAIRU* MINUS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(percent)
* Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.Source: Congressional Budget Office.
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Figure 20.
Predicting Inflation
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62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 222
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
Apr
US MONEY MULTIPLIER(M2 as a ratio of Monetary Base)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 221.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
Q1
M2 VELOCITY(Nominal GDP as a ratio of M2)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 22.
Predicting Inflation
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64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
WAGE INFLATION & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(using average hourly earnings)
Apr
Apr
Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)
Unemployment Rate(percent)
* Production & nonsupervisory workers.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 222
4
6
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10
12
14
16
18
20
2
4
6
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10
12
14
16
18
20
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES(percent, sa)
Apr
U-6 Rate**
Underemployment Rate*Plus Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* Total number of people working part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus part time for economic reasonsas percent of civilian labor force.
** Unemployed plus marginally attached
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 24.
Predicting Inflation
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74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
JOB OPENINGS: NATIONAL & SMALL BUSINESS(percent, 3-month average)
Apr
NFIB: Small Businesswith Job Openings**
JOLTS: Job Openings Rate*
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus job openings level.** First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
2
4
6
8
10
12
Apr
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Apr
NFIB: Small Businesswith Job Openings*(percent, 3-month average)
Unemployment Rate(percent)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.
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Figure 26.
Predicting Inflation
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74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Apr
WAGE INFLATION & SMALL BUSINESS JOB OPENINGS
AprNFIB: Small Businesswith Job Openings**(percent, 3-month average,12 months ahead)
Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)
* Production & nonsupervisory workers
** First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Federation of Independent Business.
Figure 27.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20201.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
0
50
100
150
AprMar
QUITS RATE & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
Consumer ConfidenceIndex (1985=100, sa)
Quits Rate*(percent, sa)
* Private industry.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
Predicting Inflation
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
TOTAL UNEMPLOYED AS RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 29.
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr
Apr
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & QUALIFIED APPLICANTS(percent, sa)
Percent Small Business
With Job Openings*
With Few or no qualifiedapplicants for job openings
* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.Source: National Federation of Independent Business.
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Figure 30.
Predicting Inflation
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64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 221.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS(yearly percent change)
AprAverage Hourly Earnings
Private Industry (2.6)Production &Nonsupervisory Workers (2.6)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: MANUFACTURING*(yearly percent change)
Apr
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* Production & nonsupervisory workers.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 32.
Predicting Inflation
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81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX: PRIVATE INDUSTRY(yearly percent change)
Employment Cost IndexTotal CompensationWages & SalariesBenefits
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 211.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
Apr
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS& EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI)(yearly percent change)
Average Hourly Earnings*ECI Wages & Salaries**
* Production and nonsupervisory workers.** All private industry.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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Figure 34.
Predicting Inflation
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64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-5
0
5
10
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
Apr
Q1
HOURLY COMPENSATION & AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS(yearly percent change)
Hourly Compensation: Nonfarm BusinessAHE: Production & Nonsupervisory Workers
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1
HOURLY COMPENSATION & EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX(yearly percent change)
Hourly Compensation: Nonfarm BusinessECI: Private Industry Workers
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 36.
Predicting Inflation
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83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 211.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
Apr
Mar
ATLANTA FED’S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER(yearly percent change)
Wage Growth Tracker*Average Hourly Earnings**
* Three-month moving average of median wage growth.** Production & Nonsupervisory Workers.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
Mar
ATLANTA FED’S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER*(yearly percent change)
Job StayerJob Switcher
* Three-month moving average of median wage growth.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
Predicting Inflation
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58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Apr
Apr
Core CPI*(yearly percent change)
Unemployment Rate(percent)
* Excluding food and energy.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1
NONFARM BUSINESS: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR & HOURLY COMPENSATION(yearly percent change)
Nonfarm BusinessImplicit Price DeflatorHourly Compensation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 40.
Predicting Inflation
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98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mar
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JAPAN(yearly percent change)
BOJ’s Inflation Target
CPI InflationHeadlineCore*
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* Excluding food.Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Figure 41.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Apr
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: EUROZONE(yearly percent change)
ECB’s Inflation Target
CPI InflationHeadlineCore*
* Excluding energy and unprocessed food.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 42.
Predicting Inflation
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98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1.5
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PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATORS(yearly percent change)
PCED
Fed’s Inflation Target
HeadlineCore*
* Excluding food and energy pricesSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.4.6.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.84.04.24.44.64.85.05.2
600
800
1000
1200
1400
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1800
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2200
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2600
2800
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QE1 QE2 QE3
S&P 500 INDEX & QE
5/10
5/9
S&P 500 Index
US Treasuries+ Agency Debt+ MBS(trillion dollars)
Note: QE1 (11/25/08) = Fed starts buying $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/2009) = Fed starts buying $300bn in Treasuries.QE2 (11/3/10) = Fed starts buying $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended).QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries.Source: Federal Reserve Board and Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 44.
Predicting Inflation
Page 22 / May 11, 2018 / Chapter 4 Charts: Predicting Inflation www.yardeni.com
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58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2290
190
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890990
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890990
Mar
AprCONSUMER PRICE INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(indexed 1959 =100, ratio scale)
Headline
Personal ConsumptionExpenditures Deflator
Consumer Price Index
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 45.
58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2290
190
290
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890990
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890990
Mar
AprCONSUMER PRICE INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(indexed 1959 =100, ratio scale)
Ex Food & Energy
Personal ConsumptionExpenditures Deflator
Consumer Price Index
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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 46.
Predicting Inflation
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-3
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MarApr
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Headline Inflation
PCED*CPI
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.5
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AprMar
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Core Inflation*
PCED**CPI
* Excluding food and energy.** Personal consumption expenditures deflator.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
Predicting Inflation
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-1.0
-.5
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Apr
Apr
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
CPI Inflation
Core Excluding ShelterRent of Shelter
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 49.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
3
6
9
12
0
3
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9
12
Apr
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Medical Care ServicesCPIPCED*
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 50.
Predicting Inflation
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-5.5
-4.5
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Apr
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Consumer Durable GoodsCPIPCED*
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 51.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
1
2
3
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Mar
Mar
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR(yearly percent change)
Core PCED
Market Based*Official
* Market-based PCE is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludesmost implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenses of nonprofit institutionsserving households.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 52.
Predicting Inflation
Page 26 / May 11, 2018 / Chapter 4 Charts: Predicting Inflation www.yardeni.com
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