chapter 4 - valuation in m&a
TRANSCRIPT
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Chng IVChng
IV
Cc phng phpCc phng phpnh ginh gi
GV. Nguyn Hng HipKhoa Ti chnh Hc vin Ngn hng
Email: [email protected]
Mergers & Acquisitions
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Ni dungNi dung
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V sao phi tin hnh nh gi trongV sao phi tin hnh nh gi trongM&A?M&A?
Cng ty mua/nhn sp nhp c nh gi tng qut v uy tn,kh nng ti chnh v v th tn dng ca cng ty mc tiu.
L c s 2 bn a ra mc gi trong m phn, thngthuyt.
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Cc yu t nh hngCc yu t nh hng
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Cc phng php nh giCc phng php nh gi
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Phng phpPhng phpgi tr ti sn thungi tr ti sn thun
Cng thc: Vo= VT VN
Vo : gi tr TS thun thuc CSH
VT: tng gi tr TS
VN: gi tr cc khon n
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Phng php GoodwillPhng php Goodwill
Vo = ANC + GW
Vo: gi tr doanh nghipANC: gi tr ti sn thunGW: li th thng mi
Bt: li nhun nm tAt: gi tr ti sn a vo kinh doanhr: t sut LN bnh thng ca DNBt r.At: siu li nhun nm t
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Phng php P/EPhng php P/E
CH MANG TNH CHT THAM KHO KHNG S DNG TRONG M&A
Gi tr DN = LN d kin x P/E (qu kh)
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Phng php chit khu ccPhng php chit khu ccngun ti chnh tng laingun ti chnh tng lai
Cng thc:
Vo : gi tr doanh nghip
Ft: thu nhp ca NT nm th t
i : t sut chit khu n : thi gian nhn c thu nhp (tnh theo nm)
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Chit khu lung c tcChit khu lung c tc
3 trng hp: C tc u n hng nm:
C tc tng trng u n vi t l g < r (m hnh Gordon):
C tc khng u n (m hnh 2 giai on):
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Chit khu dng tinChit khu dng tinDiscounted Cash Flow - DCFDiscounted Cash Flow - DCF
Dng tin t do: l lng tin mt m doanh nghip c th to ra sau khi limt phn duy tr hoc m rng cc ti sn phc v cho sn xut kinhdoanh.
Cng thc chung:
Vo : gi tr doanh nghip
CFt: dng tin t do nm th t
Vn : gi tr doanh nghip cui chu k u t i: t sut hin ti ha
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Cash Flow is a CompanysCash Flow is a CompanysLifebloodLifeblood
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Chit khu dng tin chungChit khu dng tin chung(FCFF)(FCFF)
Xc nh FCFF: FCFF = EBIT*(1 - T)
+ Khu hao - tng (gim) TSC - tng (gim) VL
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M hnh FCFF
p dng m hnh 1 giai on:
p dng m hnh 2 giai on:
)(0 n
t
gWACC
FCFFP
=
[ ]=
=
+
+
+
+=
nt
tn
hg
ststn
t
hg
t
WACC
gWACCFCFF
WACC
FCFFP
1
10
)1(
)/()(
)1(
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Chit khu dng tin ca ch s huChit khu dng tin ca ch s hu(FCFE)(FCFE)
Xc nh FCFE: FCFE = thu nhp rng tng (gim) TSC + khu hao tng (gim) vn lu ng (khng tin mt) + n mi pht hnh tr n gc
FCFE = thu nhp rng (chi ph TSC khu hao)*(1 t l n) thay i vn lu ng*(1 t l n).
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M hnh FCFEM hnh FCFE
p dng m hnh 1 giai on: khi Cty tng trngn nh:
p dng m hnh FCFE 2 giai on: P0 = PVFCFE + PVg n nh
)(
0
ne
t
gk
FCFEP
=
[ ]=
=
+
+
+
+=
nt
tn
nn
t
t
ke
grFCFE
ke
FCFEP
1
1
)1(
)/()(
)1(0
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V dV d
Morgan Stanley thc hin r sot Singapo Airline v c nhn nh:v SA ang trong g tng trng n nhv S liu ti chnh ca nm 2000 nh sau: (v tnh: 1000 SGD) - Thu nhp rng = 1,164 - Thay i vn lu ng rng = 500 - T l n = 6% - rf =6%,rm =12%, = 0.8 - Chi ph TSC = 1,520 - Khu hao = 1,220 - T l tng trng k vng ca FCFE (gn) = 6.46%
Hy gip Morgan Stanley nh gi SA theo FCFE?
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- Xc nh FCFE:FCFE = 1,164 - (1,520 1,220)*(1 0.06) - 500*(1 0.06) = 412
- g = 6.46%- p dng cng thc:P0 = 412(1+0.0646)/(0.108 0.0646) = 10,105.341
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Bi tpBi tp
Cho bit s liu v cng ty mc tiu ABC nh sau:1. Trch BCKT:1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.
2. Trch BCKQKD:
3. Thu sut thu thu nhp DN: 25%4. S lng c phiu ca DN: 100 triu CP
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Bi tpBi tp
Yu Cu:
1. Xc nh gi tr thc ca mt c phiu theo FCFF, bit chi ph s dng vn ch:21%/nm, chi ph vn vay: 15%/nm v dng tin t nm 6 tr i bng nmth 5 (tnh hnh kd n nh).
2. Xc nh gi tr thc ca mt c phiu theo FCFE bit li sut phi ri ro Rf =
16% : H s Beta ca cng ty =1; Mc b ri ro th trng 9% v dng tint nm th 6 tr i bng nm th 5 (tnh hnh kd n nh).