Public OpinionChapter 5 – Public Opinion Voting Patterns Census data reveals impact of immigration – key factor in population increaseThree waves of immigrantsFirst wave : pre Civil War – NW Europe2nd wave: greatest influx from 1890-1920 – Southern, Northern and Western Europe : flow ends in 20s and 30s w/ anti-immigration laws being passed3rd wave: post WWII – Latin America and Asia

- new anti-immigration laws: 1994 – Calif. Prop 187 : denied social services and education to illegals

- 1996 Welfare Reform Act: denies welfare benefits to legal immigrants- Quotas have shifted to encourage European skilled workers to immigrate

-2000 Censusa. aging America, population shift to sunbelt

Public Opinion

2. Political Socializationa. Sociological Factors

- income & occupation- education- sex and age- religious and ethnic background- religion of the country where you live- family make-up

b. Psychological Factors-party affiliation and identification-perception of candidates policies or image- feeling that your vote will make a statement or

difference

Public Opinion

I. What is public opinion? How People Feel About ThingsA. People do not spend lots of time thinking about politics:

1. Public ignorance of issues2. Public opinion unstable3. Public consulted only with clear-cut political choices

B. Specific attitudes less important than underlying political culture.C. Most Americans – general public – care more about the issues that affect them in their daily lives

Issue public – the members of the public who feel strongly enough about issues – leads them to become actively involved in politics directly (activists)

Few politicians seek the approval of the general public, most have smaller constituencies (except the President) who they attempt to appease based on the issues that are important to them

Public Opinion

II. Origins of political attitudesA. Role of family

1. Party identification of family absorbed2. Declining ability in recent years to pass

on party identification.3. Younger voters more likely to be

independent.4. Clear political ideologies passed on in

few families.5. primary source of the formulation of

political opinions6. children internalize what they hear w/in

family unit, parents who speak about party identification have children that usually register and vote for the same party

Public OpinionB. Religion:

1. Political beliefs transmitted through religious tradition.2. Two theories about differences among religious traditions

a) Reflects the social status of each religious groupb) Reflects content of religious tradition

3. Christian Coalition—grassroots mobilization, Republican affiliation

4. Religion and ethnic tradition greatly influence voter choice- Jews and Catholics tend to vote Democratic - Catholics who are pro-life tend to support

Republicans - Protestants tend to vote Republican

Minority groups support democrats BUT they don’t turn out as much as white voters- 2000 elections – avid church goers tended to vote Republican, those that didn’t attend frequently or at all tended to vote Democratic- 2004 GW Bush benefitted from the 3 million Evangelical voter turning out

Public OpinionC. Gender gap

1. Results from changing partisan affiliations of men and women

a) Men increasingly Republican.b) Women continued with party affiliations at same

rate. (since 1988)Most significant shift in trend: 2004 gap between

single and married women (chp 12)- 2008 Obama attracted more women voters to the

Democratic ticket, led to more women voters overall and more voting for him

c) Reflects attitudinal differences: size of government, gun control, social programs, gay rights

2. Gender gap not unique to U.S.3. Gender doesn’t usually correlate strongly with voting

patterns

Public Opinion D. Schooling and information

1. College education has liberalizing effect2. Effects extend long after the end of college3. Several causes:

a) Personal traits: temperament, family, intelligence

b) Exposure to information on politicsc) Liberalism of professors

4. Effect growing as more people go to college5. Youth: 26th Amendment extends suffrage to 18 rather

than 21Seem to vote more Democratic than RepublicanVote in lower numbers than other groups (1976-88

18-20 yr olds turn out less than 40%)6. Children growing up with one parent – have strong

attitudes about child support7. Schools and teacher inculcate citizenship at an early

age. Depending on the system, students will learn how to ? the role of government

Public OpinionE. Income

1. lower income brackets and laborers tend to vote Democratic

2. upper-income level voters, business and professional white-collar workers, tend to vote Republican

3. higher income and greater education vote in greater numbers than those with lower levels of each

** This is the number one factor impacting voter turnout

(has held true from 1976-2008) F. Characteristics of Public Opinion

1. saliency – degree to which it is important to a particular individual or group Ex: Social Security – high saliency with senior citizens / low saliency to young voters

2. intensity – how strongly people feel about a particular issue- high intensity groups can wield tremendous

political influence3. stability – opinion on issues change over time. Some

change quickly others

Public OpinionOpinion Polls

A. Attempt to find out what the American people are thinkingB. Results widely reported in media

C. Use scientific methodology – Gallup, CC, Pewo Things to consider when viewing pollso Who conducted it?o Sample size – should be randomo Clear distinction regarding the population sample (were they likely

voters?)o When was the poll conducted?o Methodology usedo Sampling error…. +,- 3 acceptable standardo How clearly were the questions asked?

D. Exit polls have become very accurate when conducted in carefully selected districts

o Provide valuable info on why people voted the way they did

Public OpinionSplits in public opinion

A - Social Class: less important in US than in Europe

B- Class voting declined sharply since 1940s- liberalizing effects of higher education- noneconomic issues do not divide rich and poor in

the same way

C- Race and Ethnicity- similarities and differences between blacks a

whites complex- generational differences prominent among African

Americans- clear differences between black leaders and black

citizens; between white leaders and white citizens

Latino voters NOT predictably partisan in voting but tend to vote democratic (exception: Cubans- republican)

Public OpinionD. Region

1. White southerners once more conservative regarding social issues; similar regarding economic issues.

2. Political views today less regionally distinct.3. White Southerners less attached to

Democratic Party.E. Party Identification

1. Democrats have a larger base but Republicans tend to show up to the poles in higher numbers

2. Party affiliation and the number of registered voters in each has given Democrats and advantage in the Congress

- Democrats have had an advantage in Congressional elections, controlling both houses from WWII until 1994

- Party affiliation is less influential in presidential elections where voters tend to vote based on the candidates personality and issues rather than the party they are registered with

Public OpinionE. Voter Decline

1. easier for people to register and vote than in the past (although some states are trying to make it more difficult), there are more people registered than ever before but the trend in participation is decreasing

• 1992 – 55% of the registered voters turned out• 2004 – record number of voters turned out to the polls (60%)• 2008 – 62%

-Events effect voter turnout- 60s national crisis led to higher participation- 70s – Watergate scandal alienates public

leads to a decline in voter participation

- In off year Congressional elections average turnout is 40%

- Decline in party affiliation (more independents) and distrust for

politicians, leads many voters to sit out elections

Public OpinionIV. Political ideology

A. Consistent attitudes1. Definition of ideology: coherent and consistent set of political beliefs

about who ought to rule, the principles rulers ought to obey, and what policies rulers ought to pursue

2. Political scientists measure a person’s political ideology by self-identification and consistency of policy preferences

3. Yet, people may cross the borders of traditional liberalism or conservatism in issue affiliations.

B. What do “liberalism” and “conservatism” mean?1. History of liberal and conservative labels

a) Early 1800s: liberals supported personal, economic liberty; conservatives wanted to restore the power of the state, church, and aristocracy

b) With FDR and New Deal, liberalism began to mean support for activist government

c) Conservatives since Goldwater favored free market, states’ rights, and individual choice in economics.

Public OpinionC. Various categories of public opinion

1. Three useful descriptive categories:a) Economic policy: liberals favor jobs for all, subsidized

medical care and education, increased taxation of richb) Civil rights: liberals favor strong federal action to

desegregate schools, create hiring opportunities for minorities, and enforce civil rights law

c) Public and political conduct: liberals more tolerant of protest demonstrations, favor legalization of marijuana, emphasize protecting rights of the accused, and respond to crime by seeking to eliminate its causes

V. Political ideology (Cont’d):A. Analyzing consistency: Four basic quadrants

1. Pure liberals: liberal on both economic and personal conduct issues (1994, 17 percent of population)

2. Pure conservatives: conservative on both economic and personal conduct issues (1994, 28 percent of population)

3. Libertarians: conservative on economic issues, liberal on personal conduct issues (1994, 21 percent of population)

Public Opinion4. Populists: liberal on economic issues, conservative on personal

conduct issues (1994, 24 percent of population)B. Political elites

1. Definition: those who have a disproportionate amount of some valued resource

2. Elites, or activists, display greater ideological consistency.C. Is there a “new class”?

1. Definition: those advantaged by the power, resources, and growth of government

2. Two explanations of well-off individuals who are liberalsa) Directly benefit from governmentb) Liberal ideology is now infusing postgraduate

education.3. The middle class in the U.S. now split in two:

a) Traditional middle class: four years of college, suburban, church-affiliated, pro business, conservative on social issues, Republican

b) Liberal middle class (or new class): postgraduate education, urban, critical of business, liberal on social issues, Democrat

4. Emergence of new class creates a greater strain in Democratic party

Public OpinionVI. Political elites, public opinion, and public policy

A. Elites influence public opinion in two ways1. Raise and frame political issues2. State norms by which to settle issues and

define policy optionsB. Limits to influence of elites on public debate:

1. Elites don’t define economic, crime, and other problems rooted in personal experience.

2. Elites contradict and disagree with one another.

Right to VoteA. 1800s religious and property qualifications eliminatedB. 15th Amendment countered by the passage of literacy laws and poll

taxes (south)C Progressive era

- direct election of Senators – 17th Amendment- women right to suffrage – 19th Amendment

Public Opinion

A. Post Brown 1954 –o 23rd Amendment – voting rights for DC residents 1961o 24th Amendment eliminates poll tax 1964o Civil Rights Act of 1964 – prohib. of requirements that discriminateo Voting Rights Act 1965, o 26th Amendment – 18 yr olds 1971 (Vietnam)o Motor Vehicle Act – allows for centralization of voter registration along

with local registration regulationo Supreme Court – 30 days period, ample to establish residency

 Voting Requirements – left up to individual states…

The Media

I. History & Structure of News Media: A. The party press: Parties created, subsidized, and

controlled various newspapers B. The popular press:

1. Changes in society and technology made self-supporting, mass readership newspapers possible

2. Mass-readership newspapers partisan, reflecting the views of their publishers and editors

3. Cheap, large-circulation papers established feasibility of a press independent of government

C. Magazines of opinion:1. Middle class favored new, progressive

periodicalsa) Nation, Atlantic, Harper’s in 1850s

and 1860sb) McClure’s, Scribner’s,

Cosmopolitan later

The Media2. Individual writers gained national followings through

investigative reporting3. Number of competing newspapers declined 4. Readers became more educated and sophisticated5. Today, national political magazines account for a

small and declining fraction of magazinesD. Electronic journalism

1. Radio arrived in 1920s, television in late 1940s2. For politicians getting “air time” was new and

different3. Politicians could address voters directly but people

could easily ignore them4. Narrowcasting arose

E. Effects of the Internet: decentralization, shorter news cycles, “youtube” and “myspace” revolutions.

The MediaII. Structure of media

A. Degree of competition1. Newspaper industry consolidating, subscription rates

falling2. Radio and television are intensely competitive.

B. The national media1. Has significant impact among policy makers2. Characteristics of the national press.3. More liberal outlook4. Roles played: gatekeeper, scorekeeper, watchdog

C. Three tiered structure1. Inner tier : three major networks, cable news channels,

national news magazines, four national newspapers, the AP

2. Middle tier: USA Today, Chicago Tribune, Christian Science Monitor, and other news services and magazines with a strong political slant

3. Outer tier: local newspapers, local television and radio stations.

- Crossing all tiers: major media conglomerates: AOL-Time Warner, Gannett, Disney, GE

The MediaIII. Rules governing the media (regulations):

A. Newspapers almost entirely free from regulation – “prior restraint”

B. Confidentiality of sources (“shield laws”)C. Broadcasting subject to greater regulationD. Equal-time rule applies to campaigning

IV. The effects of the media on politicsA. Media impact on elections inconclusive B. Media do affect how politics are conducted, candidates are

perceived, policy is formulatedC. Newspaper readers see greater candidate contrasts than

TV viewersV. Government and the news:

A. Coverage of the president: President prominentB. Coverage of Congress never equal to that of president

The MediaVI. Interpreting political news

A. Most people believe the media, especially TV, where they get most news.B. Is there media bias? Liberal bias of journalists, though most small papers

endorse Republicans for president• Good journalism is “responsible and objective”• Slander and libel laws, and FCC force media to abide by

standards• During campaigns – equal time provisions establ. by FCC • Studies show less ideological bias in news reporting than is

claimed by critics• Historically media has become less biased• Decisions about what to report reflect bias – shy away from

complex stories b/c of time constraints, fear it may bore viewers (bias then based on medias need

of audience approval) • ½ hour new programs with 12 minute of commercials (20

stories in 18 minutes)• Reporters attempt to not offend government sources that

they will need in the future• Reporters are skeptical of politicians, influences their

reporting, which contribute to public distrust and lack of confidence of government

The MediaC. Are news stories slanted? Probably not, though type of story influences whether opinion affects coverage

o Pew Research Center – Project for Excellence in Journalism• 2008 Obama’s coverage started negatively after nomination,

became more positive as his poll #s increased. (overall treatment slightly more positive than negative)

• McCain’s coverage became increasingly negative after suspending his campaign @ start of economic crisis (overall treatment described as heavily unfavorable)

D. Why are there so many news leaks?1. Separation of powers: branches compete and use press as weapon2. Proliferation of interests: a strategy for getting support or attacking

opponents

E. Effects of the “adversarial press”

F. Sensationalism in the media increasing

G. Government “behavior” constrains journalists

The MediaVII. Answering the Enduring Questions

A. Why do present-day politicians worry so much about the media?1. Media affects every aspect of politics, from getting elected to

implementing policyB. Can we trust the media to be fair?

1. Most readers view press coverage as biased and not necessarily accurate

2. This decline in public trust halted somewhat, by coverage of September 11th attacks.

3. Press bias probably greatest when stories are no routine and involve insiders.

C. Should people care more about getting political information? Depends on perspective:

1. Yes, if you believe people should vote prospectively.2. Probably not, if you think that voting retrospectively, and relying

on valence issues, are acceptable; additional information, therefore, is irrelevant

VIII. Media CoverageA. Candidates feel the media treats them unfairly, they try to control and manipulate the mediaB. Strategies :

o talk only about the issues the administration wants to talk about,o speaking in one voice as an administration, o staying on message, repeating the same phrases and ideas over

and over