chapter 6 equities. common stock represents ownership of a business entity with claims on earnings...
TRANSCRIPT
Chapter 6
Equities
Common Stock
• Represents ownership of a business entity with claims on earnings and dividends
• Can have different classes of stock where one class can be given disproportionate powers
• Right to vote– Proxy
Intrinsic Value
• Present value of expected net cash flows that accrues to the owner of security
Dividend Discount Model
• Process of evaluating stocks on basis of present value of their expected stream of dividends
• Also known as the dividend valuation model
Intrinsic Value of Common Stock
P0 = price of stock today
dt = dividend during period t
r = required rate of return
H = holding period
PH = price of the stock at the end of the holding period
HH
HH
33
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0r 1
P
r 1
d ....
r 1
d
r 1
d
r 1
d P
Holding Period Model Is Misleading
• Problem with defining price of stock in terms of dividends and selling price is that this is circular argument, as it begs the question of what determines selling price.
• Selling price is present value of dividends to be paid forever thereafter.
Dividend Discount Model
• Because model runs to infinity, it can’t be implemented without making additional assumptions about pattern of future dividends.
r 1
d ....
r 1
d
r 1
d
r 1
d P
33
221
0
1tt
t
r 1
d
Required Rate of Return
• Rate of return on an investment required by market to justify degree of risk incurred
• Risk-free rate plus the risk premium• In equilibrium (quantity supplied equals
quantity demanded), required rate of return equal to expected rate of return.
Value Cannot Be Based on Earnings
• Double counting– Earnings retained (i.e., reinvested) in firm
should lead to higher earnings in future– Higher earnings are NOT additional value to
investor, but simply a return on value of earnings previously invested
Valuation of Stocks That Don’t Pay Dividends
• If they will never, ever pay a dividend:– Truly worthless
• If they will start paying a dividend in the future:– Value today based on when they are expected
to start paying dividends, and amount of payment at that time
Gordon (Constant) Growth Model
• Form of dividend discount model• Used to evaluate the intrinsic value of an
asset based on assumptions of constant growth rate g of cash flow or dividends and a known discount rate r, where r>g.
(continued)
Gordon (Constant) Growth Model (continued)
Vo = d1/(r – g) = d0 x (1 + g)/(r – g)
where V0 = intrinsic value, d1 = next year’s dividend, g = growth rate of dividends, and r = required rate of return.
dn = dn – 1(1+g) or dn = d0(1 + g)n
Implications of Growth Model
• Decrease in required rate of return (that is, discount rate), will cause value of stock to be higher
• Increase in expected growth rate of dividends (g), will cause value of stock to be higher
• Increase in next year’s expected dividend (d1) will
cause value of stock to be higher
Alternative Meaning of “g”
• Can solve constant growth rate model for r:
r = d1/Vo + g = dividend yield plus growth rate
• Return to investor equals dividend yield plus expected percentage price change
• If discount rate = expected return, thendividend growth rate = expected percentage
price change
Zero Growth Model
• Assume dividends will never change (i.e., no growth)
P = d / r
where P = intrinsic value of a stock whose dividends are expected to form
a perpetuity d = the constant, annual dividend r = discount rate
Selection of Discount Rate
• Sufficient to compensate investor for the riskiness of dividend stream
• Frequently use CAPM:
ri = r f + (r m – r f)
Application of CAPM
Risk-free rate
• interest rate on riskless investment, such as Treasury bill
Market portfolio
• portfolio of all assets, but good surrogate is S&P 500
Market-Price Based Ratios
• Used to judge relative appropriateness of current stock price– Price-earnings ratio– Price-cash flow ratio
• Price-free cash flow ratio
– Price-sales ratio– Price-earnings/growth rate ratio
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
• Net income of company, minus any preferred dividend requirements, divided by the number of outstanding common shares
• Provides investor or potential investor with information on stability of dividends and capital gains potential
• Considered one of most important indications of value of common stock
Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
• Share price of stock divided by its actual or anticipated earnings per share– For trailing earnings, stock price relative to
most recent 12-month earnings per share• Factual
– For ex ante earnings, stock price relative to expected next 12-month earnings.
• Fantasy
Dividend Payout Ratio
• Dividends on common stock paid out as percentage of net income (after preferred dividends)
Growth Model & P/E Ratio
Where E0 = last year’s earnings m = the payout ratio
(continued)
P0 = E0 x m x (1 + g)/(r – g)
Growth Model & P/E Ratio (continued)
Dividing through by last year’s earnings produces the price-to-past earnings ratio:
P0 / E0 = m x (1 + g) / (r – g)
or
P0 / [E0 x (1+g)] = m / (r – g)
P0 / E1 = m / (r – g)
Characteristics of Companies with High P/E Ratios
• High expected growth rate of earnings
• Low discount rate (less risky)
• Small spread between the discount rate and growth rate
Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks
• Growth stocks synonymous with above average PE ratios
• Value stocks synonymous with below average PE ratios
• Recent evidence suggests value stocks perform better than growth stocks the majority of the time
Forecasting with P/E Ratio
• Individual stock:– Forecast earnings per share– Forecast P/E ratio– Multiply the two together
• Market:– Forecast earnings for index– Forecast P/E for that index– Multiply the two together
Other Equity Instruments
• Straight Preferred stock and Participating Preferred stock
• Rights Offering
• Warrants
Rights
• Issued to raise new capital• Exercise Price < Market Price
– Sometimes by a large margin– Hence, Intrinsic Value > 0
• Short lifespan• Transferable
– Trade on exchanges or OTC for larger companies
Mechanics of Dividends
• Declaration date
• Ex-dividend date
• Record date
• Payment date
Dividend Patterns
• Many companies boast of number of years of consecutive dividend payments
• Dividends paid on same date of each quarter
• Dividend increases usually same quarter of each year
Non-Traditional Investments
• Collectables –requires a market for the asset• Noncollectables –items that are unique and expensive• Natural Resources –depletion allowance on some mineral rights• Precious Metals –rare metallic chemical element of high, durable economic value