chapter 6 the work breakdown structure and project estimation copyright 2012 john wiley & sons,...
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Chapter 6
The Work Breakdown Structure and Project
Estimation
Copyright 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.6-1
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Announcements
• RTP Bus Trip - Friday, 10/3
• Midterm Review – Monday, 10/6
• Midterm – Wednesday, 10/8
• Introduction to PM Software – Friday, 10/10
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Project Planning Framework
3-3Copyright 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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PMBOK – Knowledge Areas
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PMBOK ® – Project Time Management
Define Activities Identifying what activities must be completed to produce the project
scope deliverablesSequence Activities
Determining whether activities can be completed sequentially or in parallel and any dependencies that may exist among them
Estimate Activity Resources Identifying the type of resources (people, technology, facilities, etc.)
and the quantity of resources needed to carry out project activitiesEstimate Activity Durations
Estimating the time to complete each activityDevelop Schedule
Based on the availability of resources, the activities, their sequence, and time estimates, a schedule for the entire budget can be developed
Control Schedule Ensuring that proper processes and procedures are in place in order
to control changes to the project schedule
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Importance of Project Schedules
Managers often cite delivering projects on time as one of their biggest challenges
Schedule issues are the main reason for conflicts on projects, especially during the second half of projects
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Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
The WBS represents a logical decomposition of the work to be performed and focuses on how the product, service, or result is naturally subdivided. It is an outline of what work is to be performed
– PMBOK Guide® (17).
Work Packages
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Deliverables versus Milestones
Deliverables
Milestones
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Developing the WBS
A work package is developed for each of the phases and deliverables defined in the Deliverable Structure Chart (DSC)
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Deliverable: Test Results Report
Logical Activities:1. Review the test plan with the client so that key
stakeholders are clear as to what will be tested, how the tests will be conducted, and when the tests will be carried out.
2. Carry out the tests as outlined in the plan.3. Once the test results are collected, we need to
analyze them.4. The results should be summarized in the form of
a report and presentation to the client.5. If all goes well, the client will sign-off or approve
the test results and then we can move on to the implementation phase of the project. If not, then we need to address and fix any problems.
6-10What are the deliverables? Milestones?
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Example Work Breakdown Schedule
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The WBS Should Follow the Work Package Concept
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The WBS…
Should be “deliverable-oriented”Should support the project’s MOVHave enough detail to support planning and controlShould involve those who will be doing the workShould include learning cycles and past lessons
learned
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What do we do now that we have the activities defined?
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6.2 Test Results Report6.2.1 Review test plan with client 1
day6.2.2 Carry out test plan 5
days6.2.3 Analyze results 2
days6.2.4 Prepare test results report and presentation 3
days6.2.5 Present test results to client 1
day6.2.6 Address any software issues or problems 5
days
Estimates are made for each activity in the WBS
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How did we come up with these estimates? Using a technique,or combination of techniques, with the exception of guestimating!
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Estimation Techniques - TraditionalProject Management Approaches
GuesstimatingDelphi TechniqueTime BoxingTop-DownBottom-UpAnalogous Estimates (Past experiences)
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Guestimating
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Delphi Technique and Time Boxing
Delphi Technique• Involves multiple, anonymous experts• Each expert makes an estimate• Estimates compared
If close, can be averaged If not, do another iteration until consensus is
reached
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Time Boxing:• A “box” of time is allocated for
a specific activity, task, or deliverable
• Can focus a team if used effectively
• Can demoralize a team if not used effectively
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Top-Down
Top & middle managers determine overall project schedule &/or cost
Lower level managers are expected to breakdown schedule/budget estimates into specific activities (WBS)
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Bottom-Up and Analogous Estimates
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• Schedules & budgets are constructed from WBS
• Starts with people who will be doing the work
• Schedules & budgets are the aggregate of detailed activities & costs
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Remember: Difference b/w Duration & Effort
Activity Duration Estimating• Duration vs. Effort
People doing the work should help create estimates, and an expert should review them
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Software Engineering Approaches
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What is one way to estimate software development?
Use project characteristics (parameters) in a mathematical model to estimate
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Lines of Code
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Example: $50/ LOC based on:• Programming language• Level of expertise• Size & complexity
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Function Point Analysis
5 Primary Elements Inputs Outputs Inquiries Logical Files Interfaces
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Complexity
Low Average High Total
Internal Logical Files
(ILF)_3 x 7 = 21 _2 x 10 = 20 _1 x 15 = 15 56
External Interface
Files (EIF)__ x 5 = __ _2 x 7 = 14 __ x 10 = __ 14
External Input (EI)
_3 x 3 = 9 _5 x 4 = 20 _4 x 6 = 24 53
External Output (EO)
_4 x 4 = 16 _2 x 5 = 10 _1 x 7 = 7 33
External Inquiry (EQ)
_2 x 3 = 6 _5 x 4 = 20 _3 x 6 = 18 44
Total Unadjusted Function Points (UAF) 200
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General System Characteristic Degree of Influence
Data Communications 3
Distributed Data Processing 2
Performance 4
Heavily Used Configuration 3
Transaction Rate 3
On-line Data Entry 4
End User Efficiency 4
Online Update 3
Complex Processing 3
Reusability 2
Installation Ease 3
Operational Ease 3
Multiple Sites 1
Facilitate Change 2
Total Degrees of Influence 40
Value Adjustment Factor VAF = (TDI * 0.01) + .65 VAF = (40 * .01) + .65 = 1.05
Total Adjusted Function Points = FP = UAF * VAF FP = 200 * 1.05 = 210
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Language Average Source LOC per Function Pont
Average Source LOC for a 210 FP Application
Access 38 7,980
Basic 107 22,470
C 128 26,880
C++ 53 11,130
COBOL 107 22,470
Delphi 29 6,090
Java 53 11,130
Machine Language
640 134,440
Visual Basic 5 29 6,090
Source: http://www.spr.com/library/0langtbl.htm
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The seeds of major software disasters are usually sown in the first three months of commencing the software project. Hasty scheduling, irrational commitments, unprofessional estimating techniques, and carelessness of the project managementfunction are the factors that tend to introduce terminal problems. Once a project blindly lurches forward toward an impossible delivery date, the rest of the disaster will occur almost inevitably.
T. Capers Jones, 1988 Page 120
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What happens when project run long?
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So, your estimates were inaccurate….should you add more manpower to the project
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The Man Month
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Mon
ths
People
Mon
ths
PeopleTime versus number of workersperfectly partitionable task – i.e.,No communication among theme.g., reaping wheat.
When a task that cannot be partitionedbecause of sequential constraints, theapplication of more effort has noeffect on the schedule.
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Adding People
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What can cause inaccurate estimates?
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In Reality…Estimating is quite challenging
Stable Activities straightforward estimating
Dependent Activities amount needed for testing is dependent on a successful
test or unsuccessful test. 3-point estimates or analogous work well.
Uncertain Activities No previous precedence (complex projects) Start with 3-point estimate to set boundaries then use
analogous to set actual estimate
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