chapters 26 & 27 twofer day!!!. dark side video overview / discussion of saving & investing...
TRANSCRIPT
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Chapters 26 & 27Chapters 26 & 27
Twofer Day!!!Twofer Day!!!
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Dark side videoDark side video
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OverviewOverview Discussion of saving & investing Why is it so important Where does it come from How much does it cost LOANABLE FUNDS market graph CROWDING OUT 27 SLIDES
Discussion of saving & investing Why is it so important Where does it come from How much does it cost LOANABLE FUNDS market graph CROWDING OUT 27 SLIDES
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Why does it all matter?Why does it all matter?
Last chapter focused on growth
How is that concept connected here?
Why is saving & investing critical?
Last chapter focused on growth
How is that concept connected here?
Why is saving & investing critical?
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BUY CAPITAL, BUY CAPITALBUY CAPITAL, BUY CAPITAL More capital = higher productivity Higher productivity = higher output Higher output = more stuff
NOT SPENDING ALL YOUR MONEY IS CRITICAL
FORGOING PRESENT CONSUMPTION ALLOWS US TO INCREASE POTENITAL OUTPUT FOR THE FUTURE
LOOK AT THE GRAPH
More capital = higher productivity Higher productivity = higher output Higher output = more stuff
NOT SPENDING ALL YOUR MONEY IS CRITICAL
FORGOING PRESENT CONSUMPTION ALLOWS US TO INCREASE POTENITAL OUTPUT FOR THE FUTURE
LOOK AT THE GRAPH
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Need to not spend…it allNeed to not spend…it all
Is GDP hurt? GDP = C + I + G + X When we don’t spend, we save What happens to the leftover money?
Banks loan it to other people who want to borrow
Is GDP hurt? GDP = C + I + G + X When we don’t spend, we save What happens to the leftover money?
Banks loan it to other people who want to borrow
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Financial IntermediariesFinancial Intermediaries
Think about it as a picture FINANCIAL SYSTEM allows borrowers to connect w/ those w/ money to lend
FINANCIAL MARKETS involves these transactions
2 most common: Bond & Stock Markets
Think about it as a picture FINANCIAL SYSTEM allows borrowers to connect w/ those w/ money to lend
FINANCIAL MARKETS involves these transactions
2 most common: Bond & Stock Markets
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They’re both MARKETSThey’re both MARKETS Governed by individual incentive & supply/demand
Bond Market: essentially a loan to person looking to borrow
Stock Market: part ownership in the endeavor itself
All about capital (money) going back & forth
Governed by individual incentive & supply/demand
Bond Market: essentially a loan to person looking to borrow
Stock Market: part ownership in the endeavor itself
All about capital (money) going back & forth
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ReminderReminder
Money & currency are different…how? MONEY is anything that:
Medium of Exchange: buy & sell stuff Unit of Account: comparing values Store of Value: save for later
Financial intermediaries include banks, credit unions, savings & loan institutions, & MUTUAL FUNDS (DIVERSIFICATION)
Money & currency are different…how? MONEY is anything that:
Medium of Exchange: buy & sell stuff Unit of Account: comparing values Store of Value: save for later
Financial intermediaries include banks, credit unions, savings & loan institutions, & MUTUAL FUNDS (DIVERSIFICATION)
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BreatherBreather
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Following SavingFollowing Saving
Keeping track of money is important
Accountants do that for a living NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTING involves doing it on a national level
Most common thing to follow is GDP
Keeping track of money is important
Accountants do that for a living NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTING involves doing it on a national level
Most common thing to follow is GDP
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CIGXCIGX
GDP (or Y) = CIGX For now we assume a CLOSED ECONOMY No foreign component (compared to OPEN)
Manipulating yields GDP-C-G=I Since any money not spent (by us or gov’t) is saved it becomes
S = I
GDP (or Y) = CIGX For now we assume a CLOSED ECONOMY No foreign component (compared to OPEN)
Manipulating yields GDP-C-G=I Since any money not spent (by us or gov’t) is saved it becomes
S = I
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Saving = InvestingSaving = Investing Doesn’t matter who PRIVATE SAVING by us PUBLIC SAVING by gov’t
Results w/ BUDGET SURPLUS as compared to BUDGET DEFICIT
Saving occurs when you don’t spend Investing occurs when buy capital NOT THE SAME THING…but are equal to each other
Why?
Doesn’t matter who PRIVATE SAVING by us PUBLIC SAVING by gov’t
Results w/ BUDGET SURPLUS as compared to BUDGET DEFICIT
Saving occurs when you don’t spend Investing occurs when buy capital NOT THE SAME THING…but are equal to each other
Why?
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Creates a New MarketCreates a New Market
Saving supplies money to be loaned (supply curve)
Investing creates demand to have money (demand curve)
Combine to form the LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET
Saving supplies money to be loaned (supply curve)
Investing creates demand to have money (demand curve)
Combine to form the LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET
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Picture itPicture it
What happens when supply or demand changes?
What happens when supply or demand changes?
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S&I are key to futureS&I are key to future
Absolutely must do it What helped cause the recession?
DISSAVING rate for years Gov’t trying to correct that
Absolutely must do it What helped cause the recession?
DISSAVING rate for years Gov’t trying to correct that
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“Make” us do it“Make” us do it
1. Saving Incentives Current plan by Obama to match personal saving
2. Investment Incentives Currently count half of investment as tax credit
3. Gov’t Budget Surplus/Deficit Uhhh ohhh
1. Saving Incentives Current plan by Obama to match personal saving
2. Investment Incentives Currently count half of investment as tax credit
3. Gov’t Budget Surplus/Deficit Uhhh ohhh
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What’s their impact on LF?
What’s their impact on LF?
1. Increases supply Lowers IR; more attractive to borrow
2. Increases demand Raises IR; less attractive to borrow
3. Greatly Increases demand Raises IR; less attractive to borrow
1. Increases supply Lowers IR; more attractive to borrow
2. Increases demand Raises IR; less attractive to borrow
3. Greatly Increases demand Raises IR; less attractive to borrow
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Enter the Federal Reserve
Enter the Federal Reserve
Now saving 5% as country Seems huge, but still low
Balanced by companies not investing
Gov’t borrowing huge amounts IR should go up Held down by FED…discount rate at .25%
Now saving 5% as country Seems huge, but still low
Balanced by companies not investing
Gov’t borrowing huge amounts IR should go up Held down by FED…discount rate at .25%
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What happens w/o FED?What happens w/o FED?
Gov’t borrowing increases demand Increases IR Makes us less likely to borrow/spend
Goal of their spending to increase GDP but doesn’t work
CROWDING OUT
Gov’t borrowing increases demand Increases IR Makes us less likely to borrow/spend
Goal of their spending to increase GDP but doesn’t work
CROWDING OUT
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In theory it balancesIn theory it balances
Chart on page 578
Debt to GDP ratio predicted to drop to 15% by 2012
Where are we now???
Chart on page 578
Debt to GDP ratio predicted to drop to 15% by 2012
Where are we now???
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BreatherBreather
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What is all of that stuff?
What is all of that stuff?
No idea what Chapter 27 actually saying
We are going to focus on the RISK
No idea what Chapter 27 actually saying
We are going to focus on the RISK
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Risk is the perpetual bad guy
Risk is the perpetual bad guy
It does nothing positive Reduces spending, makes us uncomfortable, eliminates wealth
Nobody wants to lose money RISK AVERSE
It does nothing positive Reduces spending, makes us uncomfortable, eliminates wealth
Nobody wants to lose money RISK AVERSE
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Understanding riskUnderstanding risk
Just like playing the lottery
Risk spreading is very desirable
Add DIVERSIFICATION
Just like playing the lottery
Risk spreading is very desirable
Add DIVERSIFICATION
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Case in pointCase in point
Think about insurance Why buy insurance (any type)? Essentially betting that something bad will happen
If you win (& it does) they pay If you lose, they keep your money
Think about insurance Why buy insurance (any type)? Essentially betting that something bad will happen
If you win (& it does) they pay If you lose, they keep your money
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2 problems can arise2 problems can arise
1. Adverse Selection Those most likely to “win” also most likely to buy insurance
2. Moral Hazard Having insurance makes you more likely to use it
Act less safe b/c have insurance
1. Adverse Selection Those most likely to “win” also most likely to buy insurance
2. Moral Hazard Having insurance makes you more likely to use it
Act less safe b/c have insurance
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RECAPRECAP
Answer the following: 1. Why is saving/investing critical?
2. What is the purpose of financial markets?
3. Draw the loanable funds graph
4. Define crowding out
Answer the following: 1. Why is saving/investing critical?
2. What is the purpose of financial markets?
3. Draw the loanable funds graph
4. Define crowding out