characteristics and challenges of youth unemployment ton wilthagen stockholm, 16 october 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Characteristics and Challenges of
Youth Unemployment
Ton Wilthagen
Stockholm, 16 October 2014
Geography
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What causes youth unemployment?
• Strong relationship with macro-economic situation
• Labour market is “entry tournament” (Marsden): youth unemployment rates usually twice average unemployment (and more among non-nationals and low-educated groups)
• Smooth and effective school-to-work employment prevent youth unemployment – structural skills mismatches exist (up to 3.5 of total unemployment)
• High Employment Protection Legislation levels correlate with youth unemployment rates and temporary contracts
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Youth unemployment 15-25yr NL1969-2013
NL-SE similarities and differences
• Job mobility in SE higher than NL; employment security high in
both countries (decreased during crisis); youth unemployment
relatively high in SE (20.1%) and low in NL (11.0%)
• School-to-work transition quick and rather successful
• But time to 1st job longer in SE (4.4 month) than NL (3.5 month)
and lower % employed 1 year after completing education in SE
(80.4) than NL (88.2)
• Proportion of school-leavers in permanent full-time job 40% or less
• High proportion of students who combine work and education, plus
students are older
Challenges and consequences
• Youth unemployment can result in long-term scars, such as increased risk of future unemployment, reduced levels of future earnings, loss of human capital, less capacity and motivation to found a family (and buy a house), contributing to negative demographic trends.
• Moreover, in both NL and SE temporary employment amoung youth is growing
• High costs of NEETs (NL 0.77% GDP; SE 0.34%)
• This young generation – declining cohorts! - should carry our economies for the next 45 years
• Wrong to make this human capital “rust” – their future is our future
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Solutions: Dutch youth measures
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Welfare: Investing in Youth Act
Welfare: 4 weeks search period ->
4 consecutive fixed-term jobs
Small jobs arrangement
<- Reduction early school leaving ->
<- Lower minimum wage for youth below age 23 ->
<- Apprenticeship as part of curriculum school ->
€ 80 mln regional youth unempl
Sectoral job plans
Action Plan Youth Unemployment
COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION of 22 April 2013 on establishing a Youth Guarantee
2013/C 120/01
• Ensure that all young people under age of 25 years receive good-quality offer of employment, continued education, an apprenticeship or a traineeship within period of 4 months of becoming unemployed or leaving formal education.
• Not just crisis related: embark on structural reform – plan to be submitted to DG EMPL
• Countries that already have formal YG do not necessarily perform better …
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The “Youth Employment Free Zone”
• Policies should aim at early intervention and prevention
• Evidence based: good data &knowledge of “stock and flows” of young people, from primary school onwards
• Monitoring their careers and the “turns” they take
• Involving all stakeholders
• Building more productive roads towards employment – avoiding and blocking wrong turn
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The Work Experience Grant (www.startersbeurs.nu)
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Work Experience Grant (Starterbeurs in Dutch)
• Trainee contract 32h/week during max 6 months for job seekers up to age of 27, with basic qualification
• Based on evaluation and strengthening of youngster’s competences
• Grant: €500/month (€ 100 organization, € 400 municipality – eligible for ESF)
• Budget for further training education: €100/month • Fully digitalized procedure for both parties• Started in Tilburg and Rotterdam, over 150 Dutch
municipalities have joined scheme, still expanding
Competencesdeveloped*
Professional network expanded*
Labor market positionimproved*
Employment (after 1 month) 52%
• match level of education 77%
• match content of education60%* Self-report
Work Experience Grant: preliminairy results
What works
• In bad LM situation wage subsidies for employers work, but effect modest
• All measures that enhance job seekers work experience and their professional networks
• Any way to get job seekers in direct contact with companies …
• An ounce of prevention …starting at young age
• Regional – triple helix – coordination, responsive to smart specialisation
• Baking a bigger cake …
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Degrees of policy learning/transfer
• Inspiration
• Selective imitation
• Synthesis (internal/external)
• Hybrid (new modality)
• Adaptation
• Copying
• Photo copying
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Tack om din uppmärksamhet
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Dank u voor uw aandacht