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Charging Electric Vehicles in Smart Cities:A Scenario Analysis of Columbus, Ohio
Eric Wood, Clement Rames, and Stanley YoungApril 2017
Preliminary Analysis
2
NREL ObjectiveProvide guidance on plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging infrastructure to regional/national stakeholders to:
o Reduce range anxiety as a barrier to increased PEV saleso Ensure effective use of private/public infrastructure investments
How many?
What kind?
Where?
Some key questions related to investment in PEV charging stations…
Getting to know Columbus
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Existing Light-Duty Fleet
2015 Registrations by Zip Code1.68M total
0 60,000
Fleet currently dominated by internal combustion vehicles
with spatial distribution roughly mirroring populationTo be updated with 2016 data
5
Existing Light-Duty Fleet (PEVs)
2015 Registrations by Zip Code1,319 total PEVs
0 176
Columbus currently favors PHEVs to BEVs (relative to national trends) led by the
Chevy Volt
To be updated with 2016 data
6
Primary PEV Growth Scenario
Columbus PEV sales goals are percentage based.
Translation to absolute sales assumes 100,000 sales per year.
Assume 15% of PEVs are adopted by residents of MUDs
Year Percent Sales Goal2016 0.4%2017 0.6% ± 0.1%2018 0.9% ± 0.2%2019 1.4% ± 0.4%
To be updated with new goal (1.8% by project end)
INRIX Travel Data
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INRIX GPS Data
By the numbers:12 months of trips (all of 2016)All trips intersecting Columbus regionDriving mode imputed by INRIX trip engine
7.82M device ids32.9M trips
2.58B waypoints
NREL has purchased a GPS dataset for the Columbus EVSE analysis to characterize regional travel patterns
EVI-Pro Methodology
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Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection Tool
• PEV driving/charging simulator + Real-world travel profiles
• Economically efficient consumer charging behavioro Home dominant (default scenario)
• Estimates EVSE requirements foro PHEV and BEV powertrainso Single- and multi-unit dwellingso Weekday and weekend travel
What is EVI-Pro?
11
• Travel profiles are simulated using six vehicle models• A matrix of charging options are made available to
each combination of travel profile and vehicle type• Optimization algorithm selects charging behavior at
the individual level to maximize eVMT and minimize charging cost
o Simulated consumers have an assumed preference for charging type and location (based on electricity price) which is home dominant by default
Vehicle / Infrastructure Attributes
Vehicle TypesPHEV20
PHEV40
PHEV60
BEV100
BEV200
BEV300
EVSE Type / Location Home-SUD Home-MUD Non-ResidentialLevel 1 Available Excluded ExcludedLevel 2 Available Available AvailableDC Fast Excluded Excluded Available
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Destination Departure ArrivalDrive Miles
Dwell Hours
SimulatedCharging
Non-Res 8:20 AM 9:00 AM 32.8 5.00 L2Non-Res 2:00 PM 3:30 PM 68.9 0.25 ---Non-Res 3:45 PM 4:00 PM 6.3 0.25 ---Non-Res 4:15 PM 4:20 PM 0.9 0.67 DCFCNon-Res 5:00 PM 5:30 PM 9.2 0.25 ---Non-Res 5:45 PM 6:00 PM 5.0 0.50 ---
Home 6:30 PM 7:30 PM 46.8 12.83 L1
Driving/Charging Simulations
Simulated charging behavior for a BEV100 under an example travel day
DCFC
L2-Non-Res
L1-Home
Preliminary Results
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Preliminary Results
Estimated plug count by
type (end of 2019)
EVI-Pro estimates the majority of PEV
charging occurring in the evening hours at
Level 1 rates in the homes of single-unit
dwellings (SUD) residents.
A relatively small amount of charging
stations are needed to support:
• Residents of multi-unit dwellings
• Maximizing eVMT in PHEVs
• Completing long distance travel in BEVs
EVI-Pro simulated charging
load profiles by PEV type
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EVI-Pro Hot Spots, Existing Stations, CFO Candidates
Existing Public L2
EVI-Pro Hot Spots
Clean Fuels Ohio Candidate Site
Next Steps
17
• Draft report has been submitted to Columbus working group on EV charging infrastructure
• Feedback is currently being consolidated and addressed by NREL, including:
– Updating PEV sales/registrations through 2016– Updating Columbus sales goals (up to 1.8% by year 3)– SUD Home splits (L1 vs L2)– Explicitly addressing workplace charging– Public splits (L2 vs DCFC)– DCFC siting and queuing
• Updated draft report will be made available to Columbus in coming weeks
• Analysis to be finalized by end of August 2017
Next Steps
18
The US Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office funded this work.We particularly wish to thank Robert Graham and Rachael Nealer for guidance and support.
Getting to know Columbus
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Columbus currently shows a PEV/HEV ratio (1:16) typical
of most US cities
INRIX Travel Data
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INRIX GPS Data
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Value of INRIX data lies in ability to track individual vehicle movement and simulate charging behavior as though vehicle was a PEV
Pictured: Movements of single mobile device
Trip Origins/Destinations Trip Waypoints
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INRIX Data Cleansing
• INRIX delivers trip and waypoint data largely unprocessed, meaning abnormalities do exist
• NREL has developed a routine for compiling the data into a format that is amenable to PEV driving/charging simulations
• Summary of data cleansing steps:o Filter out first and last vehicle-day for each device ido Chain trips such that origins are coincident with previous destinationso Compute trip distance using provided waypointso Use median destination coordinates to estimate home locationo Cluster destinations around inferred home location to assign home destination
typeo Perform spatial joins to add county, zip code, TAZ, and land use information
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Travel Survey Comparison
INRIX trip data is compared to DVMT and time of day distributions from NHTS and regional travel surveys
Trend are similar with the exception of the INRIX data showing:• Slightly lower DVMT (median value of less than 20 miles)• Depressed trip counts during AM peak hour (possible time zone issue)
26
MORPC Travel Model
MORPC has provided NREL with output of
their travel demand model from a 2015
simulation with trip counts by TAZ (see right).
TAZ Trip Count Percentiles
Linear Correlation of MORPC demand model
with INRIX trip data shows an R2 value of 0.51
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• Provider typeo Consumer or Fleet
• Driving profileo Consumer vehicleo Field service / local deliveryo For hire / private truckingo Taxi / shuttle / town car serviceo Unknown
• Vehicle weight classo Light, medium, heavy, or unknown
• Probe source typeo Embedded GPS, mobile device, unknown
Down sampling INRIX Data
INRIX aggregates GPS data from multiple sources (providers). For the Columbus
EVSE analysis, we down sample to approximately 14% of the larger dataset
(based on data quality and provider type).
NREL down sample46.7k device ids
4.48M trips35.8M miles
Provider meta data
28
MORPC Land UseMORPC has also provided NREL with
their land use datasetContains 663k polygons classified into 37 types including agriculture, office, commercial, industrial, park, public use, and residential
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MORPC Land Use (example zoom on CMH)
Airport
Park
Community Commercial
Moderate Suburban
Low Urban
Open Space
Education
Warehouse
Office
ID long term parking at airport?
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Cross reference INRIX with MORPC land use
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Cross reference INRIX with MORPC land use
Residential
Non-Residential
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Cross reference INRIX with MORPC land use
Residential
Non-Residential
Potentially of interest for EV charging locations
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Cross reference INRIX with MORPC land use
Non-residential locations can be qualitatively segmented based on their suitability as site hosts for PEV charging
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Cross reference INRIX with MORPC land use
High frequency;typically low dwell time
Low frequency;typically high dwell time
Low frequency;typically low dwell time
Moderate frequency;typically moderate dwell time
35
Cross reference INRIX with MORPC land use
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Cross reference INRIX with MORPC land use
Residential
Public Use
Industrial
Commercial
EVI-Pro Methodology
38
Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection Tool
• PEV driving/charging simulator + Real-world travel profiles
• Economically efficient consumer charging behavioro Home dominant (default scenario)
• Estimates EVSE requirements foro PHEV and BEV powertrainso Single- and multi-unit dwellingso Weekday and weekend travel
What is EVI-Pro?
39
• Anticipate spatial and temporal consumer demand for charging
o Specifically individuals with inconsistent access to home chargingo Model considers MUD residents as a special class of consumer
• Capture variations with respect too Residents of single- and multi-unit dwellingso Weekday/weekend travel behavioro Regional differences in travel behavior and vehicle adoption
• Fundamental assumptiono Consumers prefer to maximize eVMT and minimize operating cost
Model Goals
40
EVI-Pro Schematic
Vehicle Attributes
Travel Data
Driving/Charging Simulations(Optimize individual charging behavior)
Infrastructure Attributes
Spatial/Temporal Post Processing(Estimate potential for shared use of EVSE)
Weight and scale EVSE density
EVSE counts
Participation ratesCharging load profiles
Consumer eVMT benefitsIndividual charging sessions
EVSE densityEVSE utilization
EVSE countsEVSE countsSpatial Dimensionality
Travel DataTravel Data PEV Sales
Projections
41
• Travel profiles are simulated using six vehicle models• A matrix of charging options are made available to
each combination of travel profile and vehicle type• Optimization algorithm selects charging behavior at
the household level to maximize eVMT and minimize charging cost
o Simulated consumers have an assumed preference for charging type and location (based on electricity price) which is home dominant by default
Vehicle / Infrastructure Attributes
Vehicle TypesPHEV20
PHEV40
PHEV60
BEV100
BEV200
BEV300
EVSE Type / Location Home-SUD Home-MUD Work PublicNone On/Off On/Off On/Off On/Off
Level 1 On/Off On/Off On/Off On/Off
Level 2 On/Off On/Off On/Off On/Off
DC Fast Excluded Excluded Excluded On/Off
42
Single travel day from conventional vehicle in CHTS with 170 miles of driving in a single day
Destination Departure ArrivalDrive Miles
Dwell Hours
Work 8:20 AM 9:00 AM 32.8 5.00Public 2:00 PM 3:30 PM 68.9 0.25Public 3:45 PM 4:00 PM 6.3 0.25Public 4:15 PM 4:20 PM 0.9 0.67Public 5:00 PM 5:30 PM 9.2 0.25Public 5:45 PM 6:00 PM 5.0 0.50Home 6:30 PM 7:30 PM 46.8 12.83
Driving/Charging Simulations
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Destination Departure ArrivalDrive Miles
Dwell Hours
Work 8:20 AM 9:00 AM 32.8 5.00Public 2:00 PM 3:30 PM 68.9 0.25Public 3:45 PM 4:00 PM 6.3 0.25Public 4:15 PM 4:20 PM 0.9 0.67Public 5:00 PM 5:30 PM 9.2 0.25Public 5:45 PM 6:00 PM 5.0 0.50Home 6:30 PM 7:30 PM 46.8 12.83
Driving/Charging Simulations
Home Work Public Public Public Public Home
NoneL1L2
None
L2
None
L2
None
L2DCFC
None
L2
None
L2DCFC
Public
NoneL1L2
None
L2DCFCDCFCDCFC
L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1
A large number of potential charging combinations exist for each individual travel profile
Example for BEV100
44
Destination Departure ArrivalDrive Miles
Dwell Hours
Work 8:20 AM 9:00 AM 32.8 5.00Public 2:00 PM 3:30 PM 68.9 0.25Public 3:45 PM 4:00 PM 6.3 0.25Public 4:15 PM 4:20 PM 0.9 0.67Public 5:00 PM 5:30 PM 9.2 0.25Public 5:45 PM 6:00 PM 5.0 0.50Home 6:30 PM 7:30 PM 46.8 12.83
Driving/Charging Simulations
Home Work Public Public Public Public Home
NoneL1L2
None
L2
None
L2
None
L2DCFC
None
L2
None
L2DCFC
Public
NoneL1L2
None
L2DCFCDCFCDCFC
L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1
EVI-Pro allows users to manually restrict individual charging types
Level 1 charging at work and public locations is restricted in this example
Example for BEV100
45
Destination Departure ArrivalDrive Miles
Dwell Hours
Work 8:20 AM 9:00 AM 32.8 5.00Public 2:00 PM 3:30 PM 68.9 0.25Public 3:45 PM 4:00 PM 6.3 0.25Public 4:15 PM 4:20 PM 0.9 0.67Public 5:00 PM 5:30 PM 9.2 0.25Public 5:45 PM 6:00 PM 5.0 0.50Home 6:30 PM 7:30 PM 46.8 12.83
Driving/Charging Simulations
Home Work Public Public Public Public Home
NoneL1L2
None
L2
None
L2
None
L2DCFC
None
L2
None
L2DCFC
Public
NoneL1L2
None
L2DCFCDCFCDCFC
L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1
EVI-Pro allows users to manually restrict charging to locations with some minimum dwell time
A 30 minute minimum dwell time requirement is enforced in this example
Example for BEV100
46
Destination Departure ArrivalDrive Miles
Dwell Hours
Work 8:20 AM 9:00 AM 32.8 5.00Public 2:00 PM 3:30 PM 68.9 0.25Public 3:45 PM 4:00 PM 6.3 0.25Public 4:15 PM 4:20 PM 0.9 0.67Public 5:00 PM 5:30 PM 9.2 0.25Public 5:45 PM 6:00 PM 5.0 0.50Home 6:30 PM 7:30 PM 46.8 12.83
Driving/Charging Simulations
Home Work Public Public Public Public Home
NoneL1L2
None
L2
None
L2
None
L2DCFC
None
L2
None
L2DCFC
Public
NoneL1L2
None
L2DCFCDCFCDCFC
L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1
All remaining combinations of charging options are simulated with behavior linked at all location types
Results in 18 unique combinations of charging behavior
Example for BEV100
47
Driving/Charging Simulations
EVI-Pro internally reviews all combinations of charging behavior (18 in this example)
Example for BEV100
48
Driving/Charging Simulations
Any charging behavior combination that violates the minimum SOC threshold is discarded (20% SOC in this example)
49
Driving/Charging Simulations
Iterat
e on i
nitial
SOC
to ba
lance
ener
gy
Take remaining charging scenarios and iterate on initial SOC to balance energy across the day (discard any scenarios that violate SOC threshold as a result of balancing)
Select scenario from remaining option that minimizing cost of charging to the consumer
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Destination Departure Arrival
Drive
Miles
Dwell
Hours
Simulated
Charging
Work 8:20 AM 9:00 AM 32.8 5.00 L2
Public 2:00 PM 3:30 PM 68.9 0.25 ---
Public 3:45 PM 4:00 PM 6.3 0.25 ---
Public 4:15 PM 4:20 PM 0.9 0.67 DCFC
Public 5:00 PM 5:30 PM 9.2 0.25 ---
Public 5:45 PM 6:00 PM 5.0 0.50 DCFC
Home 6:30 PM 7:30 PM 46.8 12.83 L1
Driving/Charging Simulations
In this example, optimal charging
scenario is:
Home-L1
Work-L2
Public-DCFC
Next step is to trim unnecessary
charging events (if possible)
DCFC
L2-Work
DCFC
L1-Home
51
Destination Departure Arrival
Drive
Miles
Dwell
Hours
Simulated
Charging
Work 8:20 AM 9:00 AM 32.8 5.00 L2
Public 2:00 PM 3:30 PM 68.9 0.25 ---
Public 3:45 PM 4:00 PM 6.3 0.25 ---
Public 4:15 PM 4:20 PM 0.9 0.67 DCFC
Public 5:00 PM 5:30 PM 9.2 0.25 ---
Public 5:45 PM 6:00 PM 5.0 0.50 DCFC
Home 6:30 PM 7:30 PM 46.8 12.83 L1
Driving/Charging Simulations
Second DCFC event of the day is
eliminated as vehicle can complete
return trip home without second
DCFC event
DCFC
L2-Work
L1-Home
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Lower Bound Upper Bound
Home SUD Charging Simulated participation rate less 5%
Simulated participation rate
Home MUD Charging Peak load (temporal) Simulated participation rate
Workplace Charging Peak load (temporal) Simulated participation rate
Public Charging Peak load (temporal) Spatial clustering(0.1mi L1L2, 10mi DCFC)
• Since EVI-Pro simulation of CHTS is intended to inform a number of PEV adoption scenarios, a rates approach is taken in which results of driving/charging simulations are normalized to calculate EVSE density requirements
• These calculations utilize outputs of the driving/charging simulations including: participation rates, charging load profiles, and individual spatial/temporal charging sessions
• For each EVSE category, upper and lower bound estimates are generated to convey relative degrees of uncertainty
Estimating EVSE Density
53
Spatial Clustering in EVI-Pro
Public destination(no simulated charging)
Public destination(yes simulated charging)
Aggregate simulated charging events to hypothetical stations within 0.1 miles (L1/L2) and 10 miles (DCFC)
Preliminary Results
55
For modeling purposes, existing fleet of HEVs and PEVs will be used to extrapolate spatial distribution of future PEV adoption • More comparable to spatial distribution of fleet• HEV registrations have shown to be a reasonable indicator of consumer
preference for PEVs
2015 Registrations by Zip Code20,668 total HEVs + PEVs
0 900
Existing Light-Duty Fleet (HEVs + PEVs)
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Estimated EVSE Requirements
57
Preliminary Results
Present day
EVI-Pro models availability of charging stations growing proportionally to the projected growth in PEV adoption.
Relative to existing infrastructure, EVI-Pro assesses the Columbus region as having an adequate level of DCFC, however the model projects that access to non-residential L2 charging needs to be expanded.
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Existing DCFC Stations
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Estimated Plug Counts by Zip CodeMUD L2 Non-Res-L2
Census data on population by housing type drives EVI-Pro to project the majority of MUD L2 in Franklin County.Travel between the counties of Union, Delaware, and Franklin drive the need for charging stations in that area.
60
Top 100 Non-Residential L2 EVSE “Hot Spots”
1-mile bubbles are drawn around EVI-Pro’s top 100 projected charging hot spots
61
Top 100 Non-Residential L2 EVSE “Hot Spots”
Honda of America Manufacturing
Columbus Zoo & Aquarium / Wild Tides
Manufacturing Facilities
Georgesville Square / Holt Run Shopping
Shopping Centers
Shopping CentersThe Ohio State
University
DowntownIndustrial Park
Ohio Wesleyan / Delaware City and County Facilities
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Top 100 Non-Residential L2 EVSE “Hot Spots”
Zoom to this location on next slide
63
EVI-Pro Hot Spots and MORPC POI
South Pointe Business Park
Shopping Centers
Hotels
Hotels
Shopping Centers
MORPC points of interest (POI) are used to reference potential sites
within EVI-Pro hot spots