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Charging ForwardThe Emergence of Electric Vehicles and

Their Role in Reducing Oil Consumption


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Charging ForwardThe Emergence of Electric Vehicles and

Their Role in Reducing Oil Consumption

Environment North CarolinaResearch & Policy Center

Summer 2012


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This report was written by Rob Kerth, Elizabeth Ridlington o Frontier Group, and Daniel

Gatti o Environment America Research & Policy Center.

The authors wish to thank Don Anair o the Union o Concerned Scientists, Gina Coplon-Neweld o Sierra Club, and Luke Tonachel and Max Baumhener o the Natural ResourcesDeense Council or their review and insightul comments. Thanks also to Tony Dutzikand Travis Madsen o Frontier Group or their editorial and writing assistance.

Environment North Carolina Research & Policy Center is grateul to the Energy Founda-tion or making this report possible.

The authors bear responsibility or any actual errors. The recommendations are thoseo Environment North Carolina Research & Policy Center. The views expressed in thisreport are those o the authors and do not necessarily refect the views o our unders orthose who provided review.

2012 Environment North Carolina Research & Policy Center

Frontier Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner,healthier and more democratic society. Our mission is to inject accurate inormation andcompelling ideas into public policy debates at the local, state and ederal levels. For moreinormation about Frontier Group, please visit www.rontiergroup.org.

The Environment North Carolina Research & Policy Center is a 501(c)(3) organization.We are dedicated to protecting North Carolinas air, water and open spaces. We investi-gate problems, crat solutions, educate the public and decision-makers, and help North

Carolinians make their voices heard in local, state and national debates over the quality oour environment and our lives. For more inormation about Environment North CarolinaResearch & Policy Center or or additional copies o this report, please visit www.envi-ronmentnorthcarolinacenter.org.

Cover photo credit: Peter Petto/istockphoto.comLayout: Harriet Eckstein Graphic Design

Acknowledgments


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Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

Introduction 3

Pollution from Automobiles HarmsAmericas Environment, Economy and Health 4Automobile Pollution Contributes to Smog 4

Automobile Pollution Contributes to Global Warming 5

Oil Is Getting Dirtier and Electricity Is Getting Cleaner 6

Electric Vehicles Can HelpCut Oil Dependence and Air Pollution 7Basics of Electric Vehicles 7

Electric Vehicles Can Reduce Fossil FuelDependence and Cut Pollution 8

Electric Vehicle Technology Is Ready to Make an Impact 12

Electric Vehicles Will Be Deployed FastestWhere Infrastructure and Policy Support Is Present 14

Policy Recommendations 17

Methodology 20

Notes 22


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Executive Summary 1

Americas reliance on gasoline-pow-ered vehicles has long contributed toair pollution, including global warm-

ing emissions, and our nations dependenceon oil. In the past decade, however, theautomobile market has begun to change,integrating new technologies that aredramatically less dependent on gasoline.Hybrid electric vehicles, powered in partby energy stored in a battery, have become

increasingly popular.Now, ully electric vehicles, with zero

direct emissions, are emerging as a mar-ket-viable alternative to gasoline-poweredvehicles. For the rst time in the history othe modern automobile industry, vehiclesthat do not run on oil have started to ap-pear on American roads, signaling thebeginning o the end or the monopoly othe internal combustion engine.

Electric vehicles have arrived and willprovide extensive environmental benets.

Increasing the number o electric vehicleson the road will yield even greater cuts inpollution and oil use.

More than 30,000 electric vehiclesare already on the road in the UnitedStates, and more are coming soon.Dealers sold 17,000 electric vehicles in the

rst year that they were on the market, arexceeding the 9,300 hybrids sold the rstull year those vehicles were available, andnearly matching the 20,000 hybrids soldin the rst two years hybrids were on themarket. In 2012, sales o electric vehiclesthrough May are on pace to show tremen-dous growth over 2011.

The Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in hybrid

electric vehicle, is the top-selling electricvehicle model in the United States todate, with more than 15,000 units sold.

TheNissan Lea, an electric vehicle,is the second highest seller with morethan 12,000 sold.

Additional models, including the FordFocus EV and the Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid, covering a wide range ocar sizes and styles, have entered the

market in 2012.

The Center or Automotive Research(CAR) projects that 469,000 electric

vehicles could be sold between 2012and 2015.Meeting CARs sales projectionscould lead to benets including:

Executive Summary


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2 Charging Forward

Preventing the emission o629,000metric tons o global warming pol-lution annually, even with much othe electricity or vehicles being gen-erated at coal- and natural gas-redpower plants. Thats equal to remov-

ing 123,000 conventional passengervehicles rom the road. Powering thevehicles with renewable energy wouldraise the potential reduction in globalwarming pollution to 1.96 millionmetric tons, equal to the emissionsrom 385,000 conventional passengervehicles.

Reducing oil consumption by2.6 mil-lion barrels o oilthe equivalent oremoving 221,000 2012 model gaso-line vehicles rom the road altogether.

More ambitious schedules or electricvehicle deployment are possible. Putting1 million electric vehicles on the road by2015, as has been proposed by PresidentObama and others, would oer evengreater pollution and oil savings benets,reducing oil consumption by over 5.6 mil-lion barrels annually.

Electric vehicle support inrastruc-

ture is spreading rapidly through thecountry: as o March 2012, more than7,000 charging stations have beeninstalled, and more are on their way.Though most re ch arg ing o elec tricvehicle s wi ll happen when owners areat home, public charging stations oerdrivers o electric vehicles greater fex-ibility. Federal grants and partnershipswith private companies are helping citiespave the way or large-scale use o electriccars. Leading states have developed large

numbers o charging stations, preparingthem or rapid rollout o electric vehicles.(See Table ES-1.)

Electric vehicles are ready to begin awholesale transormation o the automobilemarket, reducing pollution and oildependence rom personal transportation.

Public policy can help speed the day inwhich cars are powered by clean electricityinstead o dirty oil. In order to bring thisabout, policymakers should:

Incentivize owning and drivingelectric vehicles both with tax creditsand other nancial incentives.

Encourage construction o charg-ing stations to allow drivers the op-

tion o recharging vehicles at work orduring longer trips away rom home.

Invest in researchto continuereducing the cost and improving theperormance o electric vehicles.

Additionally, policymakers should makesure that the value o electric vehicles ismaximized by:

Promoting renewable energy, so

that the electricity used to chargeelectric vehicle batteries is produced ascleanly as possible.

Developing a smart grid to allowvehicle batteries to unction as storageor the larger electricity system.

State NumberoCharging StationsInstalled

California 1,718Washington 674

Texas 570

Michigan 480

Florida 475

Oregon 415

NewYork 367

Maryland 262

Illinois 245

NorthCarolina 211

TableES-1:TopTenStatesorPublicElectricCarChargingStations,asoMarch2012


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Introduction 3

Paying or gasand dealing with thepollution it causeshas been analmost inescapable element o most

Americans lives or decades. From theneighborhoods we live and work in to theextensive highway system we travel on,much o our nations inrastructure is builtor personal cars, and personal cars havebeen almost universally gasoline-burning,spewing air pollution with every trip.

That is start ing to change.In the past year and a hal, or the

rst time in modern history, a signicantnumber o vehicles capable o operatingwithout petroleum uel have been sold inthe United States. From the ully-electricNissan Lea to the plug-in hybrid ChevyVolt, the new vehicles share a crucial ea-ture: they can be powered entirely withelectricity.

Replacing gasoline with electricity asthe uel o choice or personal transporta-tion would mean more than just replac-ing trips to the gas station with plugginginto an outlet. It would mean replacingoilwhich is getting increasingly dirtyand dangerouswith electricity, whichwe know how to produce cleanly. It wouldmean replacing largely imported oil, amajor net drain on the American economy,

with homegrown electric power.The electric cars hitting the road today

dont look much dierent than ordinarycars. For the air we all breathe, though,the dierence between a gasoline car anda vehicle without a gas tank or a tailpipecan be like the dierence between nightand day. Electric vehicles are a key part oour nations eorts to end our reliance onoil and build a cleaner uture.

Introduction


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4 Charging Forward

For decadesat least since the oilshocks o the 1970s raised awarenesso Americas dependence on imported

oilpolicymakers have talked about reduc-ing oil dependence. While eorts towardsthat goal have achieved some success attimestemporarily reversing the growtho oil consumption in the early 1980sin-creases during the 1990s and 2000s raised

U.S. oil consumption to all-time highsimmediately beore the late 2000s reces-sion.1

Oil dependence has signicant conse-quences or the United States. Oil importsdraw a huge amount o money out o theeconomy every year$327 billion in 2011alone.2 Higher gas prices also mean ami-lies spend more o their household budgetson gasoline. Most Americans have littlechoice but to pay more when gasoline pricesrise because oil has become so central to

our way o lie.3

Internal combustion engine-driven au-

tomobiles release a number o pollutantsinto the atmosphere. These range rompollutants with short-term eectssuchas contributors to smogto pollutantslike carbon dioxide that contribute to

longer-term environmental degradation.Conventional automobiles contribute toseveral o the major pollution and publichealth problems our society aces.

Automobile Pollution

Contributes to SmogSmog is the common term or ground-levelozone, a orm o pollution that can threatenrespiratory health.

Ground-level ozone is generally notemitted directly, but instead orms rom areaction between chemicals in the atmo-sphere. When nitrogen oxides and hydro-carbons come together in the presence osunlight, ozone is ormed. 4 Both nitrogenoxides and hydrocarbons (essentially, in-

completely combusted uel molecules) arepart o motor vehicle emissions.Smog poses both short and long-term

threats to human health. Short-term expo-sure to ozone can cause lung irritation andinfammation, coughing, and aggravationo lung problems like asthma. Over the lon-

Pollution from Automobiles HarmsAmericas Environment, Economyand Health


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Pollution from Automobiles Harms Americas Environment, Economy and Health 5

ger term, exposure to ozone can increasesusceptibility to various lung diseases, suchas bronchitis, and cause permanent damageto lung tissue.5

Increased emphasis on limiting emis-sions o ozone-orming chemicals rom

automobiles and other sources has paido in the orm o a decline in averageozone levels over the past several decades.6Despite that improvement, ozone remainsa serious public health concern. Accord-ing to the American Lung Association,38 percent o Americans live in countieswhere ozone reaches levels high enoughto damage public health.7

The chemicals that react to orm ozone,meanwhile, can pose health risks in theirown right. Some o the hydrocarbonsound in automobile exhaust are carcino-genic. 8 Nitrogen oxides, meanwhile, cancause lung infammation in the populationat large, and increased symptoms in peoplewith asthma.9

Automobile PollutionContributes to GlobalWarmingAutomobile engines emit carbon dioxide,the leading cause o global warming. Car-bon dioxide in the atmosphere causes moreo the heat rom the sun to be trapped inthe atmosphere and less to radiate backinto space, increasing the temperature othe Earth over time.

The eects o global warming have beenincreasingly evident over the past decade.Among them:

Nine o the ten warmest years onrecord have occurred since 2000. Thewarmest year on record occurred in2010; 2011 was the ninth warmest.10

Severe weather events have occurred

with increasing requency in recentyears. For example, a 2007 Environ-ment America Research & PolicyCenter report ound that the re-quency o extreme precipitation eventsincreased by 24 percent across the

contiguous United States between1948 and 2006.11

Arctic sea ice has steadily retreated astemperatures have warmed. Sea icereached its minimum extent in 2007.In 2011, sea ice reached its second-lowest recorded extent, declining to itssmallest extent on September 9.12

I global warming is allowed to continueunchecked, severe consequences are likelyto result.

Global warming will lead to more heatwaves, threatening vulnerable popula-tions across the United States and theproductivity o agriculture.13

Rising temperatures will lead to risingsea levels, as ice caps on Greenlandand Antarctica melt and sea waterexpands in volume at higher tem-

peratures. Recent research suggeststhat sea levels are likely to increase bybetween 30 and 75 inches by 2100.14

Higher temperatures are alreadychanging the pattern o the seasons,and leading to habitat loss and mi-gration as species react to changingweather patterns.15

Automobiles are a signicant source oglobal warming pollution in the United

States. In 2008, motor gasoline used ortransportation accounted or 18 percent oall U.S. emissions o global warming pol-lution (this gure includes emissions romsome automobiles that are not personalcars, but excludes emissions rom diesel-powered vehicles).16


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6 Charging Forward

Oil Is Getting Dirtier andElectricity Is Getting CleanerIn April 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oildrilling rig exploded in the Gul o Mexico,beginning an environmental disaster that

dumped more than 200 million gallons ooil into the Gul. We are only beginningto ully understand the impact that thiscatastrophe is having on the ecology o theGul, and the lives and health o people inthe region. But the Deepwater Horizondisaster is more than an isolated incident.Rather, it is the most dramatic demonstra-tion o the increasing risks that oil com-panies are taking to satisy the increasingglobal thirst or oil.

The danger o deepwater drilling isthat a single accident can dump massiveamounts o oil into the ocean. Other un-conventional sources o oil have their ownenvironmental problems. The productiono oil rom Canadas tar sands in Albertais one o the most ecologically damagingindustries ever constructed. It destroysvast tracts o wilderness and causes waterand air pollution, with tar sands-based

oil releasing 14 to 25 percent more globalwarming pollution than conventional oil.17The U.S. Energy Inormation Administra-tion (EIA) projects that production o tarsands oil will triple over the next 25 yearsrom 1.5 million barrels per day to 4.8

million barrels per day.18 Production o oilout o shale rock ormations in the westernUnited States has similarly devastatingimpacts on air and water quality, as wellas global warming.

While our uture oil supplies are gettingdirtier, our sources o electricity have thepotential to get cleaner. Twenty-nine statesplus the District o Columbia currentlyhave some version o a Renewable Electric-ity Standard requiring that utilities gener-ate an increasing percentage o electricityrom renewable energy sources.19 The EIAcurrently projects that renewable sourceso energy will grow rom 10 percent oall electricity generation to 16 percent by2035.20 With the right policies in place,we can achieve much greater increases ingeneration o renewable electricity, urtherstrengthening the environmental benetso electric vehicles.


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Electric Vehicles Can Reduce Fossil Fuel Dependence and Cut Pollution 7

Basics of Electric Vehicles

Electric cars come in several variations,but share one crucial eature: theyuse electricity as a uel, reducing or

eliminating their need or gasoline.Partially electric drive trains began to

make an impact on the American auto-mobile market in the early 2000s with theintroduction ohybrid electric vehicles

(HEVs), like the Ford Escape hybrid andToyota Prius. American drivers purchasedmore than 2 million o these vehicles be-tween 1999 and the end o 2011.21 Thesecars have batteries and an electric motorthat provide assistance to the gasolineengine.

HEVs have a number o eatures thatmake them more uel-ecient than con-ventional cars. For instance, a regenerativebraking system allows the cars electricmotor to capture and store the energy othe cars momentum while slowing down,eliminating a major source o waste. Thiseature, combined with the ability to shutdown the internal combustion engine whenthe car is moving very slowly or is stopped,makes these cars much more ecient than

conventional cars or stop-and-start driv-ing in city trac.

The dierence between hybrids and theelectric vehicles described in this reportis that HEVs need to operate their inter-nal combustion engine in order to drivemore than a brie distance. By contrast,the two categories o vehicles discussedin this report can complete a ull trip onelectric power alone. For a driver, that

means that shorter tripscommutes toand rom work, or example, or weekenderrandscan be accomplished withoutengaging the gasoline engine.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs), contain both an electric mo-tor and an internal combustion engine.PHEVs can be plugged into an externalpower source to charge their batteries,which allows them to run entirely on bat-tery power within a given range. Beyondthat distance, they engage their internal

combustion engine, either to operate agenerator that powers the electric motoror to power the vehicle directly. Even inregions with relatively dirty power plantsgenerating electricity, PHEVs have loweremissions than do typical vehicles pow-

Electric Vehicles Can Help Cut OilDependence and Air Pollution


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8 Charging Forward

ered solely by gasoline. The Chevy Voltis presently the top-selling PHEV in theUnited States, having sold 7,671 units in2011.22

The second category o electric vehiclesare battery electric vehicles (BEVs),

which have no internal combustion engine.These vehicles operate entirely on batterypower, and can only take trips within therange o their battery charge beore stop-ping to recharge. They produce no directemissions because they dont consume anyossil uels on-board the vehicle, and arecleaner than average gasoline- or diesel-powered cars.

State Barrelso OilSaved

AK 4,960

AL 18,620

AR 15,701

AZ 70,575

CA 637,722

CO 56,125

CT 45,769

DC 8,197

DE 7,803

FL 139,287

GA 45,411

HI 12,387

IA 21,859

ID 10,690

IL 98,491

IN 36,692

KS 19,680

KY 17,459

LA 14,655

MA 81,284

MD 65,491

ME 12,927

MI 46,422

MN 38,992

MO 33,721

MS 7,523

Electric Vehicles Can ReduceFossil Fuel Dependence andCut Pollution

Electric vehicles consume less ossil uel

and produce less carbon dioxide and health-threatening pollutants than conventionalvehicles, even when the electricity thatpowers the electric vehicles comes mainlyrom coal-red power plants.

Reduced Oil ConsumptionA January 2011 study by the Center orAutomotive Research (CAR) projects that

State Barrelso OilSaved

MT 7,555

NC 65,959

ND 2,959

NE 9,671

NH 17,179

NJ 73,639

NM 19,336

NV 21,687

NY 141,870

OH 63,509

OK 17,049

OR 55,501

PA 88,786

RI 10,067

SC 23,127

SD 4,637

TN 27,783

TX 145,806

UT 17,094

VA 95,092

VT 9,449

WA 94,640

WI 42,226

WV 7,992

WY 3,689

U.S.Total 2,634,747

Table1:AnnualOilSavingsi469,000ElectricVehiclesAreSoldby201526


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Electric Vehicles Can Reduce Fossil Fuel Dependence and Cut Pollution

469,000 electric vehicles could be sold inthe United States between 2012 and 2015.Combined with the 17,000 electric vehiclessold in 2011, that would mean a total o486,000 electric vehicles on the road bythe end o that year.23 (For reerence, there

were approximately 234 million passengercars on the road in 2009.24)

Putting this many electric vehicles onthe road would reduce U.S. oil consump-tion signicantly. The electric vehicles thatCAR projects will be sold between 2012and 2015 would lead to a 2.6 million bar-rel reduction in the nations oil consump-tion annually, the equivalent o removing221,000 model year 2012 vehicles rom theroad altogether.25 A aster EV rollout wouldlead to greater savings; putting 1 millionEVs on the road by the end o 2015 wouldcreate annual oil savings o 5.6 million bar-rels per year, or as much as is consumed by471,000 model year 2012 vehicles.

Reduced PollutionElectric vehicles will also have a signicantimpact on emissions o pollutants thatthreaten public health and that contributeto global warming. Compared to a conven-

tional vehicle feet, a feet incorporating asignicant number o plug-in hybrids andelectric vehicles will emit less nitrogenoxides and carbon dioxide.

Increasing the use o electric and plug-inhybrid electric vehicles can reduce emis-sions o hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides,and sulur dioxide. According to a studyby the Natural Resources Deense Counciland the Electric Power Research Institute,the use o plug-in hybrid-electric vehicleswould improve air quality or most regions

in 2030.27 That study was based on a 2006orecast o uture electricity generationthat included many new coal-red powerplants. Since 2006, the projected numbero new coal-red power plants has dropped,meaning that uture electricity generationcould be less polluting and electric vehicles

could produce greater improvements in airquality.

Electric vehicles also reduce globalwarming pollution. By using energy moreeciently and by relying on electricity,which produces less global warming pol-

lution than gasoline, electric vehicles emitless global warming pollution than doconventional cars. The scale o the sav-ings depends on the mix o coal, naturalgas and renewable energy used to produceelectricity where the vehicle is charged.This ratio varies rom one region o thecountry to another.

In Caliornia, which has a relativelyclean electricity mix, an electricvehicle would produce 66 percent lessglobal warming pollution per milethan a comparably sized gasoline-powered vehicle.28

An electric vehicle in Texas, wherethe electric grid is not as clean as inCaliornia, would release 41 percentless global warming pollution.

Even in Michigan, which has one othe most coal-dependent and pollut-

ing electricity mixes in the nation,an electric vehicle would produce 29percent less global warming pollutionthan an average new gasoline-poweredvehicle.

The cumulative savings would be sig-niicant. I electric vehicle sales matchCARs projections, the 469,000 electricvehicles sold between 2012 and 2015 wouldprevent 629,000 metric tons o globalwarming pollution every year rom 2016

onward.29 (This savings estimate assumesthat electric vehicles are purchased insteado conventional gasoline-powered vehiclesthat meet increasingly stringent ederaluel economy standards.) Thats the equiva-lent o removing 123,000 o todays averagevehicles rom the road.30


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10 Charging Forward

The pollution reduction rom those EVswill be much more dramatic i they receivetheir power rom clean, renewable sourcesinstead o rom the current mix o powerplants operating in the United States. Inthat case, emissions would be reduced by

1.96 million metric tons, the equivalent oremoving 385,000 average vehicles romthe road.31 Table 2 shows state-by-stateestimated pollution savings based on theCenter or Automotive Researchs state-level projects o vehicle sales.

Even greater savings could be achieved ipolicies to promote EVs result in more suchvehicles hitting the road by 2015. Speedingup the rollout o electric vehicles to put 1million such vehicles on the road by theend o 2015 would reduce global warming

pollution by 1.34 million metric tons an-nually i the vehicles were charged romthe nations existing power plant mix, andwould prevent 4.19 million metric tons opollution i the vehicles were powered byrenewable energy.

State IfCarsAre IfCarsAre Poweredfrom Poweredwith theExisting Renewable ElectricalGrid Electricity

AK 1,342 3,699

AL 3,028 13,968

AR 3,170 11,722

AZ 21,010 52,080

CA 189,862 470,594

CO 16,710 41,417

CT 12,379 34,131

DC 2,217 6,113

DE 2,110 5,819

FL 35,897 103,944

GA 7,385 34,064

HI 3,350 9,238

IA 2,841 16,485

ID 3,183 7,889

IL 7,795 74,898

IN 2,847 27,910

KS 5,862 14,521

KY 1,727 13,234

LA 2,870 10,947

MA 21,985 60,617

MD 16,293 48,949

ME 3,496 9,640

MI 3,656 35,304

MN 6,262 29,275

MO 5,627 25,329

MS 1,223 5,643

State IfCarsAre IfCarsAre Poweredfrom Poweredwith theExisting Renewable ElectricalGrid Electricity

MT 2,191 5,580

NC 10,726 49,477

ND 480 2,220

NE 1,497 7,335

NH 4,646 12,811

NJ 19,917 54,915

NM 5,757 14,269

NV 6,457 16,004

NY 38,371 105,798

OH 4,928 48,308

OK 5,072 12,581

OR 16,524 40,956

PA 19,584 66,553

RI 2,723 7,507

SC 3,761 17,348

SD 854 3,469

TN 4,470 20,847

TX 41,426 107,861

UT 5,089 12,614

VA 13,851 71,534

VT 2,556 7,047

WA 28,176 69,838

WI 3,877 32,045

WV 621 6,079

WY 1,090 2,723

U.S.Total 628,773 1,963,152

Table2:MetricTonsoGlobalWarmingPollutionPreventedAnnuallybyElectric

VehiclesSold2012-2015inTwoGenerationScenarios32


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Caliornia has already established poli-cies to increase the penetration o electricvehicles in that state by 2025, and states thathave adopted Caliornia vehicle emissionstandards are likely to ollow. The goal isto have 1.4 million electric vehicles and

other zero-emission vehicles on the roadby 2025.33 That means that more than 15percent o new vehicles sold in 2025 wouldneed to be zero-emission or plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles. With such widespread useo electric cars, global warming emissionsrom vehicles would drop by 12 percent.34

Maximizing the Pollution Savingsof Electric VehiclesReplacing a conventional gasoline vehiclewith an electric vehicle will reduce emis-sions o carbon dioxide and other pol-lutants. Cleaning up the power grid byadding clean, renewable energy sources willurther increase the pollution preventionbenet o electric vehicles. At the sametime, widespread use o electric vehiclescan make the power grid more fexible andless reliant on dirty sources o energy.

Clean Electricity Makes ElectricVehicles Even Cleaner

Building new renewable electricity gen-erating acilities to replace or supplementexisting coal- or natural gas-red powerplants will lower the average amount oglobal warming pollution released by pro-ducing electricity.

The nation has sucient capacity tocharge electric vehicles today; the problemis that the mix o generating acilities in-cludes many dirty sources o power.35

Wind and solar energy generate emis-sions-ree electricity that can help clean up

the electricity grid and reduce emissionsrom electric vehicles across the UnitedStates. The quantity o power producedby wind turbines varies with the speedo the wind, which is generally highestovernight.36 That makes it particularlysuitable or charging electric cars, which

will mostly be charged in the evening (un-der the assumption that owners will plugthem in on returning home rom work) orat night (as a result o a conscious eortto ensure that charging takes place whenelectricity costs are lowest).37

Wind power has been prolierating rap-idly in the United States; new wind installa-tions in 2011 gave the nation 46,919 MW owind capacitya 17 percent increase sincethe end o 2010, and more than double thenations wind capacity in 2007.38 Continu-ingand acceleratingthat developmento wind capacity could allow the nationselectricity grid to meet the additional de-mand occasioned by the large-scale rollouto electric cars without signicantly in-creasing ossil uel consumption by powerplants.

I sources such as wind power cometo produce most o the electricity usedto power electric vehicles, the impact oelectric vehicles on pollution would bemuch more dramatic. While a plug-in hy-brid vehicle charging in the evening romthe current average power mix o the U.S.electric grid would emit 32 percent lessglobal warming pollution than a conven-tional gasoline car, the same car charging

entirely rom renewable energy would emit78 percent less global warming pollutionthan the gasoline car.39

Electric Vehicles Can Store CleanElectricity and Make the GridCleanerAs electric cars become more common,their batteries will begin to oer theelectrical grid something it has neverbeore possesseda modular, widely dis-persed, large volume o storage capacity

or powerpotentially contributing tothe ability to integrate greater amountso solar and wind energy into the nationselectric system.

Electric cars can be used to help makeelectricity consumed or all purposescleaner. By drawing as much o their power


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12 Charging Forward

as possible rom the cleanest and mostecient power plants, storing it in theirbatteries, and then eeding that power backinto the grid during times o high demand,electric vehicles can make the power gridmore fexible and less polluting.

At present, electricity production has tobe closely matched to demand throughoutthe day. That means that while some largepower plants run night and day, others areswitched on and o to match the variationin demand that occurs over the course o24 hours.

Electric carsand their batteriespro-vide an alternative method or ensuringadequate power supply through the day.Batteries can be charged at o-peak hours,then discharge energy back into the grid tohelp meet midday demand surges.

The storage capac it y prov ided byelectric vehicle batteries can also help in-corporate intermittent sources o power,like wind energy, into the grid. Denmark,which has led the world in developing windpower, plans to turn to electric cars to allowit to incorporate levels o wind power abovewhat an unimproved grid would be capableo carrying into its electrical system.40 Inthe uture, a signicant feet o electric

vehicles could allow the United States to dothe same thing, making possible a cleanerelectrical grid.

Electric Vehicle TechnologyIs Ready to Make an ImpactThe signicant increase o electric vehiclesin retail markets anticipated or 2012 isthe result o several actors. Car compa-

nies have invested in the vehicles with theknowledge that policymakers are lookingto put cleaner cars on the road; consumerinterest has been piqued by the popularityo hybrid cars; and some o the underlyingtechnologies have become cheaper andmore eective.

The electric cars on the market today,and entering the market in the near uture,would not have been technically easibleas little as a ew years ago. Rapid advancesin battery technology, in particular, havemade electric cars more aordable.

Between 1991 and 2005, or instance,the cost per unit energy o the lithium ionbatteries used in electric cars ell by 80percent, while the energy density o thosebatteries (the amount o energy that canbe stored in a battery by weight) doubled.41Those trends may be accelerated by large-scale investment in advanced batteriesworldwide, including through a signicantinusion o American Reinvestment andRecovery Act unds in the United States,which have triggered a erce competitionbetween advanced battery manuacturers.42As battery makers compete to cut costs anddevelop better technology, electric carswill gain in perormance and become lessexpensive.

The energy density and cost o batterieshelp determine two o the eatures o elec-tric cars that consumers are most likely tocare abouttheir price and their range. Acrucial third eature, which will help deter-mine the degree o fexibility that electric

car owners have in planning their trips, isthe time required to recharge electric cars.Current technology allows or relativelyslow charging using chargers that can pluginto a standard wall outlet, or signicantlyaster charging at specially designed charg-ing stations. The Nissan Lea, or instance,charges in 8 hours using a home chargerthat plugs into a high voltage outlet. TheLea also can be charged to 80 percent oits battery capacity within 30 minutes us-ing a special quick charger.43 A 30 minute

charge time is short enough that a drivercould recharge a battery most o the waywhile running errands. Charging technol-ogy is improving: the recently releasedFord Focus EV charges in just over threehours using a 240 volt charger (similar tothat used or a clothes dryer).44


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Ultimately, researchers aim to reducebattery charging times to closer to the timerequired to rell a gasoline vehicle at thepump. Nissan researchers have been ableto charge batteries within 10 minutes inthe lab, although their technology is not

yet ready or commercial deployment.45Researchers at the University o Illinois,meanwhile, have developed technologythat can charge a car battery in tens oseconds in the lab.46 Current chargingtechnology allows EV owners to rechargetheir cars overnight, and is ast enough toenable recharging during a shopping tripor restaurant visit; urther advances couldallow drivers to recharge their vehicles inthe same time it takes to ll a car at a gasstation.

This combination o technological ad-vances puts electric vehicles in a position toclaim a signicant share o the automobilemarket. Like all new technologies, electricvehicles will not enter and transorm themarket immediately. Even the most popu-lar products take time to capture consumerattention, and manuacturers need timeto expand production capacity. This isparticularly true or products like auto-mobiles, which are expensive, complicated

to manuacture, and replaced only slowly(7-8 percent turnover per year).47

Initial sales gures or electric vehiclescompare avorably to the gures or gaso-line-electric hybrids like the Honda Insightand Toyota Prius rom a decade earlier. In2000, the rst year that those vehicles weremade available to customers in appreciablenumbers, just over 9,300 hybrids were sold.Sales gures in the second year hybridswere available exceeded 20,000 a ewthousand more units than electric vehicles

sold in their rst year on the market.48Over the ollowing decade, increasing

demand or hybrids, improving technol-ogy, and growing production capacitycombined to produce sales volumes muchlarger than during those initial years. Salespeaked in 2007, just beore the nation

entered a recession, at 352,000 units. 49 Intotal, 2,340,000 hybrids were sold between2000 and the end o May 2012.50

Already, the pace o electr ic vehiclesales has increased, with sales rom Janu-ary through May 2012 totaling more than

13,000 vehicles.51A wide range o electric vehicles are

already on or shortly to enter the market.As these cars become widely available, con-sumers will have a choice between dierentbrands, styles, and vehicle technologies,creating the opportunity or EVs to ll arange o niches in the automobile market.

Plug-in HybridsA number o plug-in hybrids have eitheralready reached the U.S. market, or willbecome available in 2012 or shortly there-ater. A sample o the oerings eitheralready available or scheduled or releasein the near uture includes:

The Chevrolet Voltbecame availablein late 2010, and has sold 15,000 unitsin the United States.52 The Volt is aour-seat hatchback with an all-elec-tric range o 35 miles. The car is aseries hybrid, in which the gasoline

engine does not connect directly tothe wheels but instead powers a gen-erator, which supplements the batteryto drive the electric motor as needed.53

TheToyota Prius Plug-in Hy-brid was released in early 2012. Theautomaker aims to sell 16,000 Priusplug-ins in the rst year the car is onthe market. The car is a modied ver-sion o the Prius hatchback, with anall-electric range o 11 to 14 miles.54

The Ford C-Max Energi is a ve-passenger plug-in hybrid minivanscheduled or release in 2012 or 2013.It uses a parallel hybrid architecture,in which both the electric motor andthe gasoline engine can power the


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14 Charging Forward

wheels directly. Ford also plans to o-er a midsize plug-in, the Ford FusionEnergi, beginning in late 2012.55

TheMitsubishi MiEVis a mid-sizedSUV, similar to the companys exist-

ing Outlander model, which oers a30-mile all-electric range on a parallelhybrid drivetrain.56

Battery Electric VehiclesFully electric vehicles also broke into theU.S. automobile market in large numbersor the rst time in 2011, as the Nissan Leasold 9,600 units.57 The Lea will soon bejoined by other all-electric alternatives, in-cluding a range o dierent vehicle types.

TheNissan Leahas sold more than12,000 units since its introduction inlate 2010.58 The automaker plans tobegin producing its own batteries ata actory in Smyrna, Tennessee, inorder to keep up with demand or thevehicle; the plant will have a capacityo 200,000 batteries a year.59 The au-tomaker intends to double its produc-tion o Leas or the U.S. market in2012. 60

Ford plans to oer the Focus Elec-tric, a compact car, in the New York,New Jersey, and Caliornia marketsduring 2012, beore scaling up tobroader retail sales in uture years.61

TheToyota Rav4 EV, a batteryelectric version o the small SUV, willbe oered to the public beginning in2012. The automaker will also oerthe small Scion iQ EVto feet and

car-sharing programs.62

The Honda Fit EV, a compact carwith an 82-mile range, will be oeredin Caliornia and Oregon beginningin summer o 2012, beore expandingto more markets in early 2013.

TheMitsubishi i is a subcompact carwith a range o 62 miles and is avail-able to consumers now.63

Electric Vehicles Will BeDeployed Fastest WhereInfrastructure and PolicySupport Is PresentSome products work best in clusters. Therst person in a given town to buy a carearly in the twentieth century, or instance,would immediately have the benet o a

new transportation option. They wouldnot, however, realize the ull potential otheir new purchase i no one else in thecommunity ollowed their lead. A singlecar owner could not support the networko gas stations, paved roads, and parkingacilities that makes car ownership souseul. Only ater other local consumersalso had invested in a car would the rstpurchaser receive the ull benets o theirown vehicle.

The eect on one user o a product or

service rom others use o the same prod-uct or service is reerred to as a networkeect. In the case o electric cars (as withthe original gasoline cars), the impact othe network eect is to make electric carsmore valuable to their owners as moreelectric cars enter service, encouraging thedevelopment o charging stations and othersupport inrastructure and services.

This being the case, electric cars arelikely to enter the market most quickly inplaces where local policy, public enthu-

siasm, and inrastructure availability aremost avorable. Electric vehicles will bemetropolitan vehicles rst; large cities o-er more destinations within the range oelectric vehicles. Cities have also been thelogical place to invest in public rechargingstations or those times when drivers need


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to recharge their vehicles away rom home(see Table 3).

Table3:TopTenStatesorPublicElec-tricVehicleChargingStationsbyState

asoMarch201264

State NumberoCharging StationsInstalled

California 1,718

Washington 674

Texas 570

Michigan 480

Florida 475

Oregon 415

NewYork 367

Maryland 262Illinois 245

NorthCarolina 211

Since cars are primarily used relativelyclose to home, city- and county-level poli-cies can play a disproportionately large rolein promoting the spread o electric cars. 65Drivers will be more likely to choose anelectric vehicle i they are condent thattheir driving experience will be simple

and convenient. Policies that make itsimpler to install charging equipment athome and that acilitate the installation oa large number o public charging stationswill create an environment where electricvehicle drivers can have maximal fexibilityin where they take their cars.

As elec tr ic car manuacturers makeplans to begin selling their vehicles in theUnited States, they typically target a ewinitial markets, in order to take advantageo the benets that concentration oers

despite the small initial number o vehiclessold. Nissan, Ford, and GM all selectedinitial target markets or their rst electricvehicles, including Caliornia because othe states strong set o policies supportingelectric vehicles, and the states history ohigh consumer demand or hybrids.66

Cities, states, car companies, and theederal government have prepared theground or adoption o electric vehicles byinstalling a growing number o chargingstations nationwide. As o March 2012,the United States has more than 7,000

charging stations, with more plannedand under construction.67 (See Figure 1.)Several ederal grant programs created bythe American Reinvestment and RecoveryAct (ARRA) have directed money towardinstalling electric vehicle chargers.

The Clean Cities Programaims toreduce petroleum dependence in thetransportation sector. Clean Citiesgrants unded by the ARRA have willlead to the construction o more than1,600 chargers and the purchase o600 electric vehicles or use in govern-ment feets across multiple states. 68

The EV Project, seeded by a De-partment o Energy grant andadministered by Electric Transporta-tion Engineering Corporation (eTec),is installing 15,000 charging stationsand subsidizing the purchase o 6,000electric cars across Arizona, Cali-

ornia, Tennessee, Texas, Oregon,Washington, and the District oColumbia. 69

ChargePoint America, sponsored byCoulomb Technologies and unded inpart by an ARRA grant rom the De-partment o Energy, is installing 5,000chargers across ten metropolitan areasin Caliornia, Washington, Michigan,Texas, New York, Florida, and theDistrict o Columbia. 70

Individual cities and private compa-nies are moving ahead with their owncharging inrastructure projects inplaces like Portland, Oregon; KingCounty, Washington; and Houston,Texas.71


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16 Charging Forward

Figure1:ExistingandPlannedElectricVehicleChargingStationsintheLower48

States72


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Electric vehicles oer signicant ben-ets in the orm o decreased pollutionand reduced dependence on petroleum

or transportation. Policymakers on the lo-cal, state, and national level should aim toacilitate the quick deployment and wide-spread adoption o electric vehicles.

Public policies have been eective atpromoting alternative vehicles. The Centeror Automotive Research ound that the top

10 states or hybrid vehicle registrations percapita had 40 percent more public sectorpolicies and 20 percent more private sectorpolicies (such as avorable insurance treat-ment) than the U.S. average. 73

States and municipalities should adoptpolicies to acilitate the adoption o electricvehicles. Among the tools they can use are:

Installation o charging stations:Drivers will be able to use their elec-tric vehicles or more trips, and or

longer outings, once a network o pub-lic charging stations is in place in theirarea. Installing charging stations willhelp jump-start the market or electricvehicles, and is a tool that a number oleading cities have adopted to promoteelectric vehicle ownership.

Simplifcation o permitting: Earlyexperiences have suggested that ex-tensive permitting processes to installhome or business EV chargers canbe an annoyance and deterrent orpotential customers. Leading cities areimplementing simple permit processesrequiring only one or two days orprocessing.74

Fleet vehicle purchases: Govern-ment and corporate vehicle feets aregood candidates or early acquisitiono electric vehicles. Because o theirlarge size, they can oten triggernetwork eects through their pur-chases alone, and can take advantageo economies o scale in installing andpurchasing chargers, while saving onthe substantial uel costs associatedwith operating a large vehicle feet.Fleet purchases have played a vital role

in the early deployment o electricvehicles.75

Financial incentives: Some state gov-ernments and the ederal governmenthave instituted tax incentives or grantsor purchasers o electric vehicles.

Policy Recommendations


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18 Charging Forward

These incentives help consumersovercome the higher upront cost ocurrent models o electric vehicles. Sixstates currently oer grants to electriccar purchasers, and 14 states and theederal government oer tax incen-

tives or buying an electric vehicle. 76

Convenience incentives: Cities andstates can also incentivize electricvehicle ownership by, or instance,allowing electric vehicles to haveaccess to convenient parking spaces.Twenty-one states oer at least oneconvenience incentive. 77

In addition, the ederal governmentshould continue to invest in researchto drive down the cost and improve theperormance o electric vehicles into theuture. Electric vehicles are becoming aviable alternative to conventional vehiclesbecause o improved technology, andpolicymakers should continue to promoteresearch into more eective batteries andother technologies. This can take placeeither through publicly unded basic and

applied researcho the sort perormedat the various national laboratories andat a number o universitiesor throughloans to companies working to bring newtechnologies to market.

As electric vehicles enter the market, a

larger and larger share o the energy usedby automobiles will come rom the electricgrid, rather than rom gasoline. This oersan opportunity to expand on the pollutionbenets o displacing gasoline.

To achieve the greatest pollution ben-ets rom the deployment o electric cars,policymakers should:

Promote renewable energyand aimto replace ossil-ueled power plants.States can take advantage o a numbero tools, such as renewable electricitystandards and incentives or renewablepower generation to promote renew-able energy.

Work towards developing a smartgrid,which would enable electric-ity grid managers to more eectivelybalance variable demands and sources

Public Support of Private Research

Supporting private companies in order to promote technological advances will notalways lead to successnor should it. In a competitive market, some companiesoten ail even as perormance improves and costs all. Take the advanced batterymarket, or instance; the alling battery prices caused by advances in production tech-niques and cost-cutting competition between production rms will benet electriccar manuacturers and consumers, but the eect on the battery industry itsel willlikely be to winnow the ranks o producers.

Current worldwide battery manuacturing capacity is sucient to supply twice the

number o electric cars that automakers have committed to build by 2013.78

Giventhat imbalance, it is possible that some number o battery rmsin the U.S. andabroadwill ail due to insucient sales to keep them afoat. The correct test orwhether the public investment has succeeded, however, is not the success or ailure oany single rm, but instead the progress towards widespread availability o a benecialtechnologythe reason the research was unded initially.


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o generation and enable electricitycustomers to save money by turningon appliances when power is cheapest.A smart grid incorporating access toa large number o EV batteries will

increase the reliability o electricityservice and enable higher penetrationo renewable generation sources likewind and solar power.


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20 Charging Forward

To model the impact o electric cardeployment, we paired electric carsales projections rom the Center

or Automotive Research with gures orwell-to-wheels pollution (i.e., the pollu-tion produced during the entire process ouel production and driving) produced byelectric cars rom a 2010 Argonne NationalLaboratory report (see below). Pollutionand oil savings benets were calculated by

subtracting the pollution produced, andoil consumed, by the projected popula-tion o electric cars in each state romthe pollution produced and oil consumedby the conventional cars that they wouldreplace.

We assumed that:

The electric cars sold between 2012and 2015 would break down as ollows:

o50 percent battery electric vehicles

o25 percent plug-in hybrids with a40 mile all-electric range

o25 percent plug-in hybrids with a10 mile all-electric range

Electric cars would replace conven-tional gasoline cars that would other-wise have been purchased in the sameyear and used similarly.

An average vehicle (whether internalcombustion (ICE) or plug-in hybid(PHEV)) is driven 11,300 miles peryear (gure rom U.S. Department oEnergy, Energy Eciency and Re-

newable Energy, Table 8.9: AverageAnnual Miles per Household Vehicleby Vehicle Age in TransportationEnergy Data Book, Edition 30, 25 June2011.

Vehicles charging in the dierentregions o the U.S. electric grid, asdened by the Energy InormationAdministration in itsAnnual EnergyOutlook 2007, will draw their electrici-ty rom marginal power providers thatwould roughly match those o regionsproled in Amgad Elgowainy, Jeong-woo Han, Leslie Poch, Michael Wang,Anant Vyas, Matthew Mahalik, andAymeric Rousseau, Argonne NationalLaboratory Energy Systems Division,

Methodology


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Methodology 21

Well-to-Wheels Analysis o Energy Useand Greenhouse Gas Emissions o Plug-inHybrid Electric Vehicles, June 2010 asdetailed in Table 4.

Table4:ElectricityGridRegionsPairedwithExampleRegionsromElgowainyetal.,2010

GridRegion Generation ProfleMatch

ECAR MAIN(IL)

ERCOT WECCCA

MAAC NPCC-NY

MAIN MAIN(IL)

MAPP WECCCA

NPCC-NY NPCC-NY

NPCC-NE NPCC-NY

FRCC NPCC-NY

SERC NPCC-NY

SPP WECCCA

WECC-NW WECCCA

WECC-RMP/ANM WECCCA

WECC-CA WECCCA

The on-road well-to-wheels globalwarming pollution emissions o an

ICE vehicle would be 33.5 percenthigher than its EPA rated carbondioxide emissions, in accordancewith the values used in modeling byElgowainy et al., 2010. The dierencerefects both higher emissions in realworld driving conditions and emis-sions rom upstream sources like oilreneries and uel transportation.

Gasoline vehicles sold in any givenyear will meet the uel economy and

carbon dioxide pollution standards set

by the EPA and National HighwayTrac Saety Administration or thatyear.

The perormance o electric carswill remain constant over time (an

extremely conservative assumption,since electric cars are likely to benetrom many o the same technologicalimprovements that will make con-ventional cars cleaner, as well as romcontinued advances in battery tech-nology).

Plug-in hybrid vehicles would be usedin the mix o charge-depleting andcharge-sustaining modes modeled byElgowainy et al. and used to produce

Figure 6.14 and other gures o thatreport, and would be charged in anunconstrained ashion (i.e., would beplugged in when they returned romtheir last trip o the day, withoutintervention technology that mightdelay charging until a more avor-able time). Battery electric vehicleswere modeled by combining guresrom Elgowainy et al. (particularlyas pertains to the pollution intensityo electricity used to charge vehicles)

with gures on battery electric vehicleperormance rom the 2011 Green-house Gases, Regulated Emissions,and Energy Use in Transportation(GREET 1 2011) model publishedby Argonne National Laboratory, 14October 2011.

To model the benets o deploying 1million electric vehicles, we increased thestate-by-state sales gures or electric carsrom CAR, such that total national sales

added up to 1 million vehicles by 2015.


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22 Charging Forward

1 U.S. Department o Energy, EnergyInormation Administration,Annual EnergyReview 2011, 19 October 2011.

2 Net cost o oil imports minus exports.From Neelesh Nerurkar, CongressionalResearch Service, U.S. Oil Imports andExports, 4 April 2012.

3 Jonathan E. Hughes, Christopher R.Knittel, and Daniel Sperling,Evidence oa Shit in the Short-Run Price Elasticity oGasoline Demand, August 2006.

4 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Pollutants: Hydrocarbons, downloaded romwww.epa.gov/oms/invntory/overview/pollutants/hydrocarbons.htm, 8 May 2012.

5 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Ground Level Ozone: Health Eects,downloaded rom www.epa.gov/air/ozonepollution/health.html, 8 May 2012.

6 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Air Trends: Ozone, downloaded rom www.epa.gov/airtrends/ozone.html, 8 May 2012.

7 American Lung Association, State o the

Air 2012, April 2012.8 Agency or Toxic Substances and DiseaseRegistry, ToxFAQs or Polycyclic AromaticHydrocarbons, 3 March 2011.

9 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Nitrogen Dioxides: Health, downloaded romwww.epa.gov/air/nitrogenoxides/health.html,

Notes

8 May 2012.

10 NASA,NASA Finds 2011 Ninth-WarmestYear on Record(press release), 19 January 2012.

11 Travis Madsen, Frontier Group, andEmily Figdor, Environment AmericaResearch & Policy Center, When it Rainsit Pours: Global Warming and the RisingFrequency o Extreme Precipitation in the UnitedStates, December 2007.

12 National Snow and Ice Data Center,Summer 2011: Arctic Sea Ice Near Record Lows,4 October 2011.

13 National Wildlie Federation,MoreExtreme Heat Waves: Global WarmingsWakeup Call, 2009.

14 Mart in Vermeer and Stean Rahmstor,Global Sea Level Linked to GlobalTemperature,Proceedings o the NationalAcademy o Sciences(online), doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907765106, 7 December 2009.

15 U.S. Global Change Research Program,Global Climate Change Impacts in the UnitedStates, Cambridge University Press, 2009.

16 U.S. Department o Energy, EnergyInormation Administration,Emissions oGreenhouse Gases Report, 3 December 2009.

17 Natural Resources Deense Council,Setting the Record Straight: Liecycle Emissionso Tar Sands, November 2010.

18 U.S. Department o Energy, Energy


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Notes 23

Inormation Administration,InternationalEnergy Outlook 2011, 19 September 2011.

19 Database o State Incentives orRenewables & Eciency,RPS Policies, May2012.

20 U.S. Department o Energy, Energy

Inormation Administration,Annual EnergyOutlook 2012 Early Release, 23 January 2012.

21 1999-2010 gures: U.S. Department oEnergy, Energy Eciency and RenewableEnergy,Hybrid Elec tric Vehicle (HEV ) Salesby Model(Microsot Excel document)downloaded rom www.adc.energy.gov/adc/data/docs/hev_sales.xls on 2 February 2012.2011 gures: December 2011 Dashboard:Sales Still Climbing,HybridCars.com, 9January 2012.

22 December 2011 Dashboard: Sales StillClimbing,HybridCars.com, 9 January 2012.

23 Center or Automotive Research,Deployment Rollout Estimate o Electric Vehicles2011-2015, January 2011. 17,000: See note 22.

24 U.S. Census Bureau, Table 1069: U.S.Aircrat, Vehicles, and Other Conveyances,2000 to 2009, in Statistical Abstract o theUnited States: 2012, 23 December 2011.

25 Assumes vehicles are driven 11,300 milesper year, that they achieve an average ueleconomy o 30.1 mpg, and the uel economyis adjusted or real-world driving conditionsand upstream oil production emissions. Seemethodology.

26 See methodology.

27 Electric Power Research Instituteand Natural Resources Deense Council,Environmental Assessment o Plug-in HybridElectric Vehicles, Volume 2: United StatesAir Quality Analysis Based on AEO 2006Assumptions or 2030, July 2007.

28 Don Anair and Amine Mahmassani,Union o Concerned Scientists, State oCharge: Electric Vehicles Global WarmingEmissions and Fuel-Cost Savings Across theUnited States, April 2012.

29 See methodology.30 Average vehicle means a vehicle oaverage uel economy. U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency, Greenhouse GasEquivalencies Calculator, accessed at www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-resources/calculator.html#results, 10 May 2012.

31 1.96 million: see methodology. 385,000:U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator,accessed at www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-resources/calculator.html#results, 10 May2012.

32 See methodology.

33 Caliornia Air Resources Board,Caliornia Air Resources Board ApprovesAdvanced Clean Car Rules(press release), 27January 2012.

34 Caliornia Air Resources Board, StaReport: Initial Statement o Reasons, AdvancedClean Cars, 2012 Proposed Amendments tothe Caliornia Zero-Emission Vehicle ProgramRegulations, 7 December 2011.

35 Stanton Hadley and Alexandra Tsvetkova,Oak Ridge National Laboratory,PotentialImpacts o Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on

Regional Power Generation, January 2008.36 National Conerence o StateLegislatures,Integrating Wind Power into theElectric Grid: Perspectives or Policymakers,2009.

37 See e.g. note 35.

38 American Wind Energy Association,Fourth Quarter 2011 Market Report, January2012.

39 Amgad Elgowainy, Jeongwoo Han, LesliePoch, Michael Wang, Anant Vyas, MatthewMahalik, and Aymeric Rousseau, Argonne

National Laboratory Energy SystemsDivision, Well-to-Wheels Analysis o EnergyUse and Greenhouse Gas Emissions o Plug-inHybrid Elec tric Vehicles, June 2010.

40 Duncan Graham-Rowe, Denmark toPower Electric Cars by Wind in Vehicle-to-Grid Experiment, The Guardian, 19 June2009.

41 David L. Anderson,An Evaluation oCurrent and Future Costs or Lithium Batteriesor Use in Electrifed Vehicle Powertrains(DukeUniversity masters thesis), May 2009.

42 Saqib Rahim, Climatewire, Who Will

be the First Advanced Battery Maker toFail?, Scientifc American, 1 November 2011.

43 U.S. News Best Cars: 2012 Nissan Lea,U.S. News and World Report, 6 February 2012.

44 Richard Cazeau, 2012 Ford FocusElectric ReviewVideo,AutoGuide.com, 12June 2012.


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45 Nissan Develops 10 Minute Electric CarCharger,New York Daily News, 10 October2011.

46 Dave Levitan, At the Speed o a GasFill-Up: Battery Advance to Allow Rapid EVCharging?IEEE Spectrum, 23 March 2011.

47 7-8%: See note 39.48 U.S. Department o Energy, AlternativeFuels Data Center,Hybrid Elec tric Vehicle(HEV) Sales by Model(Microsot Excelspreadsheet), downloaded rom www.adc.energy.gov/adc/data/docs/hev_sales.xls on 15March 2012.

49 Ibid.

50 Pre-2011 sales gures: see note 48. 2011sales gures: December 2011 Dashboard:Sales Still Climbing,HybridCars.com, 9January 2012. 2012 sales gures: May 2012Dashboard,Hybridcars.com, 5 June 2012.

51 John Voelcker, May Electric-Car Sales:Lea Records, Volt and Prius Steady, GreenCar Reports, 1 June 2012, available at www.greencarreports.com/news/1076626_may-electric-car-sales-lea-recovers-volt-and-prius-steady.

52 Ibid.

53 Brad Berman, Chevy Volt,HybridCars.com, 1 October 2010.

54 Sebastian Blanco, 2012 Toyota PriusPlug-in Hybrid Now Oers 111 MPGe,Autoblog Green, 14 September 2011.

55 Christopher Jensen, Ford Adds Plug-inHybrid to Fusion Arsenal,New York Times, 9January 2012.

56 Damon Lavrinc, Mitsubishi PX-MiEVIs the 2013 Outlander in Mild Disguise,Autoblog, 30 November 2011.

57 December 2011 Dashboard: Sales StillClimbing,HybridCars.com, 9 January 2012.

58 See note 51.

59 James R. Healey, CEO: Nissan LeaOutput or U.S. Will Double in 2012, USAToday, 9 January 2012.

60 Ibid.

61 Brad Berman, Ford Deends SlowRollout o Focus Electric,PluginCars.com, 15March 2012.

62 Eric Loveday, Follow-up: 2012 ToyotaRav4 EV Will Denitely Be Sold to the

General Public,Autoblog Green, 19 July2011.

63 John ODell, New Honda EV WillDeliver 82 Miles o Range,EdmundsInsideLine.com, 6 June 2012.

64 Not including chargers set up or privatehomes and buildings. Department o Energy,Alternative Fuels Data Center,AlternativeFueling Station Total Counts by State and FuelType, 25 March 2012.

65 Mean trip distance in a Nissan Lea is6.9 miles. Brad Berman, Data on ElectricCar Driving Patterns rom the EV Project,

Plugincars.com, 6 April 2012.

66 Center or Automotive Research,Deployment Rollout Estimate o Electr ic Vehicles2011 2015, January 2011.

67 See note 64.

68 See note 66.

69 Ibid.

70 Ibid.

71 Ibid.

72 Based on data rom U.S. Departmento Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center,

Inormation Resources, at www.adc.energy.gov/adc/data_download/, 29 March 2012.

73 See note 66.

74 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,in collaboration with Rocky MountainInstitute,PEV Readiness Study, Fall 2010.

75 See note 66.

76 Ibid.

77 Ibid.

78 See note 42.

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