charles darwin symposium 2011 dovers 1 climate adaptation as normal business steve dovers director,...
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Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 1
Climate adaptation as normal business
Steve DoversDirector, Fenner School of Environment & Society
The Australian National University
Charles Darwin SymposiumOctober 2011
IACCIUS Darwin Report (Li et al 2009) 2
EMU 9
EMU 17
EMU 23
EMU 11
EMU 12
EMU 14
EMU 20EMU 16
EMU 1
EMU 15
EMU 13
EMU 21
EMU 3
EMU 2
EMU 6
EMU 19
EMU 5
EMU 18
EMU 4
East Arm
Litchfield (S) - Pt A
Litchfield (S) - Pt B
City - Remainder
Lee Point-Leanyer Swamp
East Arm
Tiwi
Winnellie
Marrara
Fannie Bay Ludmilla
Durack
Leanyer
Malak
Karama
MoilMillner
City - Inner
Anula
Driver
Jingili
Brinkin
Alawa
Cox-Finniss
Wulagi
Parap
Nightcliff
Nakara
Gray
Palmerston (C) Bal
Larrakeyah
Rapid Creek
Stuart ParkThe Gardens
Bayview-Woolner
Wanguri
Cox-Finniss
Coconut Grove
Wagaman
Gunn-Palmerston CityPalmerston (C) Bal
Cox Peninsula (CGC)
Narrows
Cox-Finniss
0 52.5
Kilometres
±
LegendEMUs
SLAs
EMU analysis unitsRanking
1st (least vulnerable)
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th (most vulnerable)
!
Darwin - Ranking of vulnerability to increasedtemperature and humidity
Derived from vulnerability assessment.This map should be used in conjunction withthe more detailed discussion in the text.It indicates areas where people and their surroundings in general may need additional preparation for changed climate conditions. Not all people or places in each area will be equally vulnerable e.g. low vulnerability places may have higher physical risk but be better able to cope.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 3
Coverage
1. A “tipping point” in the climate debate.2. How big a challenge is adaptation?3. The state of adaptation literature and
policy.4. That climate change might be easier
than we think – some examples.5. Directions for research and policy.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 4
Propositions
1.We are in danger of a policy and research trajectory around climate change adaptation that wastes time, reinvents wheels and ignores existing knowledge and capacities.
2.We might get 1/3 or even 2/3 towards world-best adaptation policy without thinking too hard or inventing anything new.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 5
The real “tipping point” … in the climate change debate
• 20 years of mostly natural science – yes, it is happening, and some is locked in.
so we have to adapt.
• A question not just for science, but for social science and other knowledge systems
• … a difficult transition.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 6
Adaptation vs. mitigation policy
• Mitigation – very difficult politically: but, given its root cause in modern economies (fossil energy use), with agreement and a target, amenable to ‘systemic’ policy interventions (ETS, tax, energy policy).
• Adaptation – newer issue, not amenable to systemic policy interventions: variation across impacts, jurisdictions, sectors, places. need varied and multiple policy interventions.
• .… mitigation is a diabolical policy problem, adaptation is a messy one.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 7
Predicting policy impact
• Clear definitions of (un)certainty in climate science (IPCC), and a capacity to model and predict impact of major mitigation policy options (ETS, etc).
• Very little prospect of predicting the effectiveness of adaptation policy options:
eg. what likelihood a strategic policy assessment impacting on sectoral policy; or an education program causing behaviour change?
• A strong justification for no-regrets options – what we should be doing anyway.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 8
State of literature & policy
• The adaptation policy literature:
• Strong on general ends, a lack of examples and models of adaptation, and little instruction on the policy means.
• A self-referencing climate literature, not drawing on: experience in relevant sectors eg. emergency management, NRM, public health. relevant disciplines eg. public policy, law, public administration, institutional theory.
……. stuff we already know.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 9
State of policy debate:
• Similar… adaptation as a “new” policy problem. struggling for purchase and direction. firms, councils and communities confused.
• Not connecting to: existing practical, professional and academic knowledge and capacities. a long history of documented policy experience.
Dovers, SR and Hezri, AA (2010). Policy and institutional change: the means to the end of adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 1: 212-31.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 10
• Human societies have long been adapting to changes in climate, through science, institutions, policy, management, behaviour – especially extreme climate and weather events.
• Nowhere more so than in Australia – a highly variable climate – should be world’s best…
Adaptation: how hard, really?
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 11
Climate change: a simple typology
1. Not too dissimilar to existing variability over recent centuries, within institutional & societal memory, but to which we could adapt better. Up to 20C? Routine problems.
2. Significantly exacerbated variability – droughts, floods, cyclones, heatwaves, vector-borne diseases, etc – not outside lived and historical experience, but very challenging. Extremes become common. 2– 40C? Non-routine problems.
3. Change and variability beyond human experience and institutional memory, threatening productive base of societies, inundation of major cities, health of large parts of the population, economic stability, integrity of evolutionary processes, etc. Strong non-stationarity, extremes the norm. Over 40C? Complex, unbounded problems.
(Typology of disaster problems: Handmer J & Dovers S 2007 The handbook of emergency and disaster policies and institutions. Earthscan.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 12
An optimistic proposition…
• Existing, evidenced proposals provide a basis for a climate adaptation response, certainly addressing level 1, and into level 2.
1/3 or even 2/3rds to a world’s best practice adaptation policy, without having to think hard?
• (Level 3 is another matter, but acting is better than not…)
• Six sectors – what should we be doing already and know how to do that would also serve to decrease vulnerability to climate change.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 13
1. Water resource management
Water management = climate variability, in allocation for human consumption and for environmental values:
Full implementation of NWI = ability to cope with increased variability = world’s best practice in adaptation-friendly water policy.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 14
2. Rural towns
Investigations of local and regional economic vulnerability produce familiar lists of strategies that should be pursued for other reasons:
Diversification of employment, niche market development, local skills training, increased collaboration amongst firms, better local socio-economic data…
Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on Urban Settlements reports – see http://fennerschool-research.anu.edu.au/iaccius/publications/
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 15
3: Biodiversity
The vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change would be addressed by familiar, existing proposals:
Landscape-wide approaches to vegetation management and connectivity, well resourced and managed reserve network, greater longevity & coordination of policy programs, comprehensive long term ecological monitoring…
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 16
4: Remote Indigenous communities
Impacts of climate change on health and well-being in remote communities suggests things we should do anyway:
Decent medical services, workable communication systems, standard education opportunities, support of local resource-based enterprises, housing …
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 17
5: Urban settlements
• Address past neglect of urban planning and energy reform -- correct existing idiocies:
• Wrongly oriented houses dependent on air-conditioning; private car reliance designed into the structure of cities; needlessly inefficient industrial processes; inadequate developer contributions; poor public transport, developing waterfronts…
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers 18
6: Emergency management
The sharp end of climate adaptation, with well-known options…
Better cross-sectoral coordination; communications, community scale capacity, building standards, remote and regional livelihoods, urban planning that reduces rather than increases vulnerability, etc.
the unimplemented recommendations of numerous inquiries.
Implications for research…
• Reconsider the disciplinary mix to match the “tipping point” in debates – beyond science.
• Seek relevant, applicable but yet-to-be-engaged theory, methods, policy practice: eg: urban studies, social psychology, public health, emergency and disaster policy, natural resource management, public policy...
• Identify cases of existing adaptation, or of proposals with adaptation and other benefits.
19Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
Implications for policy
1. An “audit” of existing and proposed policy options, coordinated across sectors for synergies – embed in normal business.
2. Matched with an audit of barriers to adaptation – a legislative and policy assessment process.
3. Regular strategic policy assessment to embed adaptation considerations in policy across all sectors.
4. A comprehensive data base and clearing house for information, data, examples – a chronic gap.
Dovers, S. 2006. Precautionary policy assessment for sustainability. In: Fisher et al (eds). Implementing the Precautionary Principle: Perspectives and Prospects. Edward Elgar.
20Charles Darwin Symposium 2011
Dovers
(In)conclusion
• Australia can get 1/3 or even 2/3 the way to world’s best climate adaptation without having to think too hard?
• … using many no-regrets options? • Climate adaptation = normal
business.
21Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
IACCIUS Darwin Report (Li et al 2009) 22
EMU 9
EMU 17
EMU 23
EMU 11
EMU 12
EMU 14
EMU 20EMU 16
EMU 1
EMU 15
EMU 13
EMU 21
EMU 3
EMU 2
EMU 6
EMU 19
EMU 5
EMU 18
EMU 4
East Arm
Litchfield (S) - Pt A
Litchfield (S) - Pt B
City - Remainder
Lee Point-Leanyer Swamp
East Arm
Tiwi
Winnellie
Marrara
Fannie Bay Ludmilla
Durack
Leanyer
Malak
Karama
MoilMillner
City - Inner
Anula
Driver
Jingili
Brinkin
Alawa
Cox-Finniss
Wulagi
Parap
Nightcliff
Nakara
Gray
Palmerston (C) Bal
Larrakeyah
Rapid Creek
Stuart ParkThe Gardens
Bayview-Woolner
Wanguri
Cox-Finniss
Coconut Grove
Wagaman
Gunn-Palmerston CityPalmerston (C) Bal
Cox Peninsula (CGC)
Narrows
Cox-Finniss
0 52.5
Kilometres
±
LegendEMUs
SLAs
EMU analysis unitsSSZ
1st (least vulnerable)
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th (most vulnerable)
!
Darwin - Ranking of vulnerability to increased storm surge risk
Derived from vulnerability assessment tables.This map should be used in conjunction withthe more detailed vulnerability summary tables.It indicates areas where people and their surroundings in general may need additional preparation for changed climate conditions. Not all people or places in each area will be equally vulnerable (ie low vulnerability places may have higher physical risk but be better able to cope,and high vulnerability places may not bevulnerable to all impacts).