chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments · 2017. 5. 22. · jan.2015...
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Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments
Directorate Monetary Policy and Financial Market Analysis
Financial Market Analysis Department
2017 május
May 2017
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
2
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market
developments *
19 May 2017
dummy
As of the 30th of June, 2005 the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes a comprehensive chart-pack about the latest information in financial markets and the macro-economy. Our aim is to provide analysts and the public with a frequently updated, easy-to-use, clear-cut data set, in order to promote better knowledge and understanding of the current economic and financial market situation. The updated chart-pack is published on the day of each rate-setting meeting at 5 pm.
Earlier versions of the chart-pack are accessible on the website of Magyar Nemzeti Bank via the following address.
http://www.mnb.hu/en/publications/studies-publications-statistics/chart-pack-on-recent-economic-and-financial-market-developments
Questions and comments are welcome, and should be addressed to [email protected].
* The data sources of this document, in whole or in part, do not fall within the scope of Act XLVI of 1993 on statistics, therefore the data contained in the tables and charts are not to be considered as official statistical data. Magyar Nemzeti Bank excludes all liability for any damage caused by the usage of the herein published non-official statistical data.
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
3
Source: HSCO, MNB Note: Seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth rates (HSCO adjustments). The time series of core inflation have changed due to the change in the calculation method.
1. Development of inflation and underlying inflation indicators
Jan.
2004
Jun.
2004
Nov.
2004
Apr.2
005
Sep.
2005
Feb.
2006
Jul.2
006
Dec.
2006
May
.200
7
Oct
.200
7
Mar
.200
8
Aug.
2008
Jan.
2009
Jun.
2009
Nov.
2009
Apr.2
010
Sep.
2010
Feb.
2011
Jul.2
011
Dec.
2011
May
.201
2
Oct
.201
2
Mar
.201
3
Aug.
2013
Jan.
2014
Jun.
2014
Nov.
2014
Apr.2
015
Sep.
2015
Feb.
2016
Jul.2
016
Dec.
2016
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
CPI Core CPI Demand-sensitive CPI Sticky price inflation
percent percent
Source: MNB, HCSO. Note: the fan chart represent the uncertainty arount the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 90 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the consumer price index illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to 30 per cent of the probability. The horizontal lines show the value of the announced inflation target and the tolerance band.
2. Fanchart of the inflation forecast
Jan.
2010
Jul.2
010
Jan.
2011
Jul.2
011
Jan.
2012
Jul.2
012
Jan.
2013
Jul.2
013
Jan.
2014
Jul.2
014
Jan.
2015
Jul.2
015
Jan.
2016
Jul.2
016
Jan.
2017
Jul.2
017
Jan.
2018
Jul.2
018
Jan.
2019
Jul.2
019-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
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3. Decomposition of the Consumer Price Index
Weight -
Weight 2017 JAN 2017 FEB 2017 MAR 2017 APR 2017
Consumer Price Index 100.0 2.3 2.9 2.7 2.2
Thereof:
Unprocessed food 6.2 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.4
Processed food 13.1 1.7 2.2 3.0 2.5
Manufactured goods 22.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5
Market services 23.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4
Non-regulated household energy 1.0 1.0 2.2 3.8 4.5
Alcohol, tobacco 9.9 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.9
Gasoline prices 7.5 15.2 19.9 17.1 10.8
Regulated prices 16.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Core Consumer Price Index 68.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9
CPI without tax changes 100.0 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.7 Source HCSO, MNB decomposition Notes: annual growth rates (%); The time series of industrial products, market services, regulated prices have changed because the method of the core inflation developed by the CSO and the NBH has broken down several items (like pharmaceutical products, the telephone, the other travels, the TV fee) from 2009.
Source: Eurostat Note: annual growth rate.
4. Harmonised index of consumer prices
Jan.
2000
Aug.
2000
Feb.
2001
Sep.
2001
Mar
.200
2
Sep.
2002
Mar
.200
3
Oct
.200
3
Apr.2
004
Nov.
2004
May
.200
5
Nov.
2005
May
.200
6
Dec.
2006
Jun.
2007
Dec.
2007
Jun.
2008
Jan.
2009
Jul.2
009
Feb.
2010
Aug.
2010
Feb.
2011
Aug.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Apr.2
013
Oct
.201
3
Apr.2
014
Oct
.201
4
May
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Jun.
2016
Dec.
2016
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Reference Average
percent percent
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Source: Thomson ReutersNote: the red continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value, the brown line shows the inflation target of MNB.
5. Market expectations for the inflation rate in current yearJa
n.20
15
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7-1
0
1
2
3
4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
percent percent
Source: Thomson ReutersNote: the red continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value, the brown line shows the inflation target of MNB.
6. Market expectations for the inflation rate next year
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
May
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
Apr.2
017
May
.201
71,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
percent percent
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Source: BloombergNote: Bloomberg collection; based on new FX forecasts. 2-weeks moving average, reverse scale.
7. Expectations for HUF/EUR exchange rate (Bloomberg collection)
May
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Aug
.201
6
Sep.
2016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Nov
.201
6
Dec
.201
6
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
Mar
.201
7
Apr
.201
7
May
.201
7
300
305
310
315
320
325
300
305
310
315
320
325
Q22017 Q32017 Current rate
HUF/EUR HUF/EUR
Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB. Note: reverse scale, the red dots represent analysts average exchange rate expecatations according to the most recent Reuters FX Poll.
8. Expectations for HUF/EUR exchange rate
Jan.
2015
Apr
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Nov
.201
5
Feb.
2016
Jun.
2016
Sep.
2016
Jan.
2017
Apr
.201
7
Jul.2
017
Sep.
2017
Dec
.201
7
Feb.
2018
Apr
.201
8
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
HUF/EUR HUF/EUR
Source: Bloomberg, MNB.Futures are based on the latest available futures prices. Technical assumption underlying is used in our inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on inflation.
9. Spot and futures Brent crude oil price
Jan.
2012
Mar
.201
2M
ay.2
012
Jul.2
012
Sep.
2012
Nov
.201
2
Feb.
2013
Apr.
2013
Jun.
2013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Oct
.201
4
Dec
.201
4
Feb.
2015
Apr.
2015
Jun.
2015
Sep.
2015
Nov
.201
5
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Aug.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec
.201
6
Feb.
2017
Apr.
2017
Aug.
2017
Oct
.201
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Spot price Futures pricing MNB assumption
USD/barrel USD/barrel
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
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Source: Reuters, HCSO, Eurostat, ÁKK, MNBNote: Real interest rate is calculated from 1-year zero coupon yield and analaysts corresponding 1-year forward inflation expectations derived from the Reuters-poll by the MNB. Real exchange rate is calculated from the change of the forint relative to euro, adjusted by the corresponding Hungarian CPI and the EMU is HICP. (1 January 1997=100%, increase represents appreciation)
10. Monetary conditionsJa
n.20
02
Jul.2
002
Jan.
2003
Jul.2
003
Jan.
2004
Jul.2
004
Jan.
2005
Jul.2
005
Jan.
2006
Jul.2
006
Jan.
2007
Oct.2
007
Apr.2
008
Oct.2
008
Apr.2
009
Oct.2
009
Apr.2
010
Oct.2
010
Apr.2
011
Oct.2
011
Apr.2
012
Oct.2
012
Apr.2
013
Oct.2
013
Apr.2
014
Oct.2
014
Apr.2
015
Oct.2
015
Apr.2
016
Oct.2
016
Apr.2
017-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
1-year real interest rate Real exchange rate based on CPI (RHS)
percent percent
Source: MNB.
11. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (year-on-year basis)
Jan.
2008
May
.200
8
Sep.
2008
Jan.
2009
May
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Jan.
2010
May
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Jan.
2011
May
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Jan.
2012
May
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Jan.
2013
May
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Jan.
2014
May
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Jan.
2015
May
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Feb.
2016
Jun.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Feb.
2017
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
M1 M2 M3
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
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Source: MNB.
12. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (annualized from quarterly rates)Ju
n.20
11
Sep.
2011
Dec.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Jun.
2012
Sep.
2012
Dec.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Jun.
2013
Sep.
2013
Dec.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Sep.
2014
Dec.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Sep.
2015
Dec.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Sep.
2016
Dec.
2016
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
M1 M2 M3
percent percent
Source: HSCONote: year-on-year change.
13. Annual GDP growth
Mar
.200
2
Dec.
2002
Sep.
2003
Jun.
2004
Mar
.200
5
Dec.
2005
Sep.
2006
Jun.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Dec.
2008
Sep.
2009
Jun.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Dec.
2011
Sep.
2012
Jun.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Sep.
2015
Jun.
2016
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
9
Source: MNB, HSCO.
14. Quarterly GDP growthM
ar.2
002
Dec.
2002
Sep.
2003
Jun.
2004
Mar
.200
5
Dec.
2005
Sep.
2006
Jun.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Dec.
2008
Sep.
2009
Jun.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Dec.
2011
Sep.
2012
Jun.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Sep.
2015
Jun.
2016
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
percent percent
Source: MNB, HSCO.
15. Contribution to annual GDP growth
Mar
.200
6
Sep.
2006
Mar
.200
7
Sep.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Sep.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Sep.
2016
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Government expenditure Household consumption Gross capital formation Change in inventories Net export
GDP growth
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
10
Source: HSCO.
16. Decomposition of GDP growthM
ar.2
010
Jun.
2010
Sep.
2010
Dec.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Jun.
2011
Sep.
2011
Dec.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Jun.
2012
Sep.
2012
Dec.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Jun.
2013
Sep.
2013
Dec.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Sep.
2014
Dec.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Sep.
2015
Dec.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Sep.
2016
Dec.
2016
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Agriculture Construction Industry Commuity services Taxes and subsidies Market services
GDP at market price
percent percent
Source: MNB, HSCO.
17. Contribution to annual GDP growth in the region
Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Final consumption Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories Net exports GDP
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
11
Source: MNB, HSCO Note: contribution in percentage points
18. Decomposition of GDP growth (income approach)M
ar.2
011
Jun.
2011
Sep.
2011
Dec.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Jun.
2012
Sep.
2012
Dec.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Jun.
2013
Sep.
2013
Dec.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Sep.
2014
Dec.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Sep.
2015
Dec.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Sep.
2016
Dec.
2016
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Wages Profit Taxes GDP value index
percent percent
Source: MNB, HCSO.Note: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 90 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the GDP illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to 30 per cent of the probability. Seasonally adjusted and reconciled data. The baseline forecast is based on backcast and nowcast adjusted by anticipated revisions.
19. Fanchart of the GDP forecast
Jan.
2010
Jul.2
010
Jan.
2011
Jul.2
011
Jan.
2012
Jul.2
012
Jan.
2013
Jul.2
013
Jan.
2014
Jul.2
014
Jan.
2015
Jul.2
015
Jan.
2016
Jul.2
016
Jan.
2017
Jul.2
017
Jan.
2018
Jul.2
018
Jan.
2019
Jul.2
019-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
MNB forecast Actual HCSO data
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
12
Source: Eurostat Note: annual growth rate.
20. GDP growth rate in CEEM
ar.2
002
Sep.
2002
Mar
.200
3
Sep.
2003
Mar
.200
4
Sep.
2004
Mar
.200
5
Sep.
2005
Mar
.200
6
Sep.
2006
Mar
.200
7
Sep.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Sep.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Sep.
2016
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia
percent percent
Source: MNB, HCSO.
21. Change in industrial production
May
.201
1
Aug.
2011
Nov.
2011
Feb.
2012
May
.201
2
Aug.
2012
Nov.
2012
Feb.
2013
May
.201
3
Aug.
2013
Nov.
2013
Feb.
2014
May
.201
4
Aug.
2014
Nov.
2014
Feb.
2015
May
.201
5
Aug.
2015
Nov.
2015
Feb.
2016
May
.201
6
Aug.
2016
Nov.
2016
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Monthly change (RHS) Yearly change (seasonally adjusted) Yearly (original)
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
13
Source: HSCO, European Commision.Note: ESI Index is a survey on business confiedence by the European Commission. Chart represents the industrial sub-index.
22. Industrial production and new export ordersJa
n.20
02
Jul.2
002
Jan.
2003
Jul.2
003
Jan.
2004
Jul.2
004
Jan.
2005
Jul.2
005
Jan.
2006
Jul.2
006
Jan.
2007
Jul.2
007
Jan.
2008
Jul.2
008
Jan.
2009
Jul.2
009
Jan.
2010
Jul.2
010
Jan.
2011
Jul.2
011
Jan.
2012
Jul.2
012
Jan.
2013
Jul.2
013
Jan.
2014
Jul.2
014
Jan.
2015
Jul.2
015
Mar
.201
6
Sep.
2016
Mar
.201
7-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
New export orders (year/year) Industrial output (year/year) ESI confidence index (RHS)
percent
Source: MNB, HCSO.
23. Developements on the real estate market
Mar
.200
2
Sep.
2002
Mar
.200
3
Sep.
2003
Mar
.200
4
Sep.
2004
Mar
.200
5
Sep.
2005
Mar
.200
6
Sep.
2006
Mar
.200
7
Sep.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Sep.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Sep.
2016
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Given licenses (seasonally adjusted) Built homes (seasonally adjusted) Finished new homes (yearly index, original)
Given licenses (yearly index, original)
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
14
Source: HCSO, FHBNote: 2010=100, inflation adjusted indices.
24. Developement of house pricesM
ar.2
007
Sep.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Sep.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Sep.
2016
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
KSH used house-index KSH new house index FHB real house-price index
percent percent
Source: European Comission.
25. Household confiedence index (reweighted)
Mar
.200
2
Sep.
2002
Mar
.200
3
Sep.
2003
Mar
.200
4
Sep.
2004
Mar
.200
5
Sep.
2005
Mar
.200
6
Sep.
2006
Mar
.200
7
Sep.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Sep.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Dec.
2016
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
15
Source: HCSO, MNB calculation.
26. Change in export and import volumesJu
n.20
11
Sep.
2011
Dec.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Jun.
2012
Sep.
2012
Dec.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Jun.
2013
Sep.
2013
Dec.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Sep.
2014
Dec.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Sep.
2015
Dec.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Sep.
2016
Dec.
2016
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Export Import Balance (RHS)
EUR millions EUR millions
Source: HCSO.Note: seasonally adjusted annualised monthly growth rates. The data of total retail sales contain beyond the narrow retail sales the turnover of motor vehicles and automotive fuel as well.
27. Total volume of retail trade
Jan.
2002
Jul.2
002
Jan.
2003
Jun.
2003
Dec.
2003
May
.200
4O
ct.2
004
Apr.2
005
Jan.
2006
Jun.
2006
Dec.
2006
May
.200
7
Nov.
2007
May
.200
8
Nov.
2008
May
.200
9
Nov.
2009
Apr.2
010
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1Au
g.20
11Ja
n.20
12
Jul.2
012
Dec.
2012
May
.201
3
Nov.
2013
Apr.2
014
Oct
.201
4
Jul.2
015
Feb.
2016
Jul.2
016
Jan.
2017
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Retail sales 3-month moving average
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
16
Source: ACEA.
28. Quarterly growth rates of automobile salesSe
p.20
03
Mar
.200
4
Sep.
2004
Mar
.200
5
Sep.
2005
Mar
.200
6
Sep.
2006
Mar
.200
7
Sep.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Sep.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Sep.
2016
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Car sales 3-quarter moving average
percent percent
Source: IFO; European Committee.Note: IFO: Business Climate Index of the German Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Average of year 2000 = 100); EABCI: Business Climate Index of the European Committee (deviations from the long-run average), seasonally adjusted.
29. Business climate indices in the EMU
Jan.
1991
Nov.
1991
Sep.
1992
Jul.1
993
May
.199
4
Mar
.199
5
Jan.
1996
Nov.
1996
Sep.
1997
Jul.1
998
May
.199
9
Mar
.200
0
Jan.
2001
Nov.
2001
Sep.
2002
Jul.2
003
May
.200
4
Mar
.200
5
Jan.
2006
Nov.
2006
Sep.
2007
Jul.2
008
May
.200
9
Mar
.201
0
Jan.
2011
Nov.
2011
Sep.
2012
Jul.2
013
May
.201
4
Mar
.201
5
Feb.
2016
Dec.
2016
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
EABCI IFO (RHS)
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
17
Source: Eurostat.
30. The annual growth rate of the volume of imported goods and servicesJa
n.20
02
Jul.2
002
Jan.
2003
Jul.2
003
Jan.
2004
Jul.2
004
Jan.
2005
Jul.2
005
Jan.
2006
Jul.2
006
Jan.
2007
Jul.2
007
Jan.
2008
Jul.2
008
Jan.
2009
Jul.2
009
Jan.
2010
Jul.2
010
Jan.
2011
Jul.2
011
Jan.
2012
Jul.2
012
Jan.
2013
Jul.2
013
Jan.
2014
Jul.2
014
Jan.
2015
Jul.2
015
Dec.
2015
Jun.
2016
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Eurozone USA Japan
percent percent
Source: Eurostat Note: quarterly growth rate.
31. GDP growth rate in the EMU, US and Japan
Mar
.199
8
Dec.
1998
Sep.
1999
Jun.
2000
Mar
.200
1
Dec.
2001
Sep.
2002
Jun.
2003
Mar
.200
4
Dec.
2004
Sep.
2005
Jun.
2006
Mar
.200
7
Dec.
2007
Sep.
2008
Jun.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Dec.
2010
Sep.
2011
Jun.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Sep.
2014
Jun.
2015
Mar
.201
6-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Eurozone USA Japan
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
18
Source: MNB.
32. Net lending of domestic sectorsM
ar.2
002
Sep
.200
2
Mar
.200
3
Sep
.200
3
Mar
.200
4
Sep
.200
4
Mar
.200
5
Sep
.200
5
Mar
.200
6
Sep
.200
6
Mar
.200
7
Sep
.200
7
Mar
.200
8
Sep
.200
8
Mar
.200
9
Sep
.200
9
Mar
.201
0
Sep
.201
0
Mar
.201
1
Sep
.201
1
Mar
.201
2
Sep
.201
2
Mar
.201
3
Sep
.201
3
Mar
.201
4
Sep
.201
4
Mar
.201
5
Sep
.201
5
Mar
.201
6
Sep
.201
6
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Non-financial institutions Households (preliminary) Government (preliminary)
percent of GDP percent of GDP
Source: MNB.
33. Main financial assets held by households
Ap
r.20
10
Jul.2
010
Oct
.201
0
Jan
.201
1
Ap
r.20
11
Jul.2
011
Oct
.201
1
Jan
.201
2
Ap
r.20
12
Jul.2
012
Oct
.201
2
Jan
.201
3
Ap
r.20
13
Jul.2
013
Oct
.201
3
Jan
.201
4
Ap
r.20
14
Jul.2
014
Oct
.201
4
Jan
.201
5
Ap
r.20
15
Jul.2
015
Oct
.201
5
Jan
.201
6
Jun
.201
6
Sep
.201
6
Dec
.201
6
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
Government securities Bank bond Mutual funds Deposit (RHS)
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
19
Source: MNB.
34. External financing capacity in the CEE countriesM
ar.2
004
Sep
.200
4
Mar
.200
5
Sep
.200
5
Mar
.200
6
Sep
.200
6
Mar
.200
7
Sep
.200
7
Mar
.200
8
Sep
.200
8
Mar
.200
9
Sep
.200
9
Mar
.201
0
Sep
.201
0
Mar
.201
1
Sep
.201
1
Mar
.201
2
Sep
.201
2
Mar
.201
3
Sep
.201
3
Mar
.201
4
Sep
.201
4
Mar
.201
5
Sep
.201
5
Mar
.201
6
Sep
.201
6
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia
percent of GDP percent of GDP
Source: MNBNote: Data on 31/03/2015 in display order: -394; 1473; -1808; -40 (FX-loan conversion).
35. Net borrowing of the households
Jan
.200
8
May
.200
8
Sep
.200
8
Jan
.200
9
May
.200
9
Sep
.200
9
Jan
.201
0
May
.201
0
Sep
.201
0
Jan
.201
1
May
.201
1
Sep
.201
1
Jan
.201
2
May
.201
2
Sep
.201
2
Jan
.201
3
May
.201
3
Sep
.201
3
Jan
.201
4
May
.201
4
Sep
.201
4
Jan
.201
5
Jun
.201
5
Oct
.201
5
Feb
.201
6
Jun
.201
6
Oct
.201
6
Feb
.201
7
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Consumption loans, other loans Mortgages (in HUF) Mortgages (in foreing currency) Total
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
20
Source: MNBNote: credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 2009 to previous half a year).
36. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in the household sectorDe
c.20
02
Dec.
2003
Dec.
2004
Dec.
2005
Dec.
2006
Dec.
2007
Dec.
2008
Jun.
2009
Dec.
2009
Jun.
2010
Dec.
2010
Jun.
2011
Dec.
2011
Jun.
2012
Dec.
2012
Jun.
2013
Dec.
2013
Jun.
2014
Dec.
2014
Jun.
2015
Dec.
2015
Jun.
2016
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Housing Consumption loans, other loans
percent percent
Source: MNBNote: credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 2009 to previous half a year).
37. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in the corporate sector
Jun.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Sep.
2016
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
SMEs Medium and large companies Real estate loans
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
21
Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by MNBNote: annual growth rates.
38. Wage growth in private sectorJa
n.20
04
Jun.
2004
Nov.
2004
Apr.2
005
Jan.
2006
Jun.
2006
Dec.
2006
May
.200
7
Oct
.200
7
Mar
.200
8
Aug.
2008
Jan.
2009
Jun.
2009
Nov.
2009
Apr.2
010
Sep.
2010
Feb.
2011
Jul.2
011
Dec.
2011
May
.201
2
Oct
.201
2
Mar
.201
3
Aug.
2013
Jan.
2014
Jun.
2014
Nov.
2014
Apr.2
015
Nov.
2015
Apr.2
016
Sep.
2016
Feb.
2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Gross average wage Gross average wage withouth premium
percent percent
Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by MNBNote: annual growth rates.
39. Unit labour cost in the private sector
Mar
.200
2
Sep.
2002
Mar
.200
3
Sep.
2003
Mar
.200
4
Sep.
2004
Mar
.200
5
Sep.
2005
Mar
.200
6
Sep.
2006
Mar
.200
7
Sep.
2007
Mar
.200
8
Sep.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Sep.
2009
Mar
.201
0
Sep.
2010
Mar
.201
1
Sep.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Sep.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Sep.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Sep.
2016
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
ULC 4-quarters moving average
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
22
Source: MNB, HCSO.
40. Wage growth in the manufacturing and market service sectorJa
n.20
04
Jun.
2004
Nov.
2004
Apr.2
005
Jan.
2006
Jun.
2006
Dec.
2006
May
.200
7
Oct
.200
7
Mar
.200
8
Aug.
2008
Jan.
2009
Jun.
2009
Nov.
2009
Apr.2
010
Sep.
2010
Feb.
2011
Jul.2
011
Dec.
2011
May
.201
2
Oct
.201
2
Mar
.201
3
Aug.
2013
Jan.
2014
Jun.
2014
Nov.
2014
Apr.2
015
Sep.
2015
Feb.
2016
Jul.2
016
Dec.
2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Gross average wage (market services) Gross average wage (manufacturing)
percent percent
Source: HCSO.Notes: levels, seasonally adjusted.
41. Activity and unemployment
Jun.
2011
Sep.
2011
Dec.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Jun.
2012
Sep.
2012
Dec.
2012
Mar
.201
3
Jun.
2013
Sep.
2013
Dec.
2013
Mar
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Sep.
2014
Dec.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Sep.
2015
Dec.
2015
Mar
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Sep.
2016
Dec.
2016
3700
3900
4100
4300
4500
4700
4900
5100
5300
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Employed Unemployment (RHS) Actives (calculated)
thousand persons thousand persons
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
23
Source: HCSO.Note: average of year 2000 = 100%.
42. ULC based real effective exchange rate of the HUFM
ar.2
000
Dec.
2000
Sep.
2001
Jun.
2002
Mar
.200
3
Dec.
2003
Sep.
2004
Jun.
2005
Mar
.200
6
Dec.
2006
Sep.
2007
Jun.
2008
Mar
.200
9
Dec.
2009
Sep.
2010
Jun.
2011
Mar
.201
2
Dec.
2012
Sep.
2013
Jun.
2014
Mar
.201
5
Dec.
2015
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Source: HCSO.Note: average of year 2000 = 100%. PPI based effective rates changed due to statistical revision on 24th March 2017.
43. CPI and PPI based real effective exchange rates of the HUF
Jan.
1998
Oct
.199
8
Jul.1
999
Apr.2
000
Jan.
2001
Oct
.200
1
Jul.2
002
Apr.2
003
Jan.
2004
Oct
.200
4
Jul.2
005
Apr.2
006
Jan.
2007
Oct
.200
7
Jul.2
008
Apr.2
009
Jan.
2010
Oct
.201
0
Jul.2
011
Apr.2
012
Jan.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Jul.2
014
Apr.2
015
Jan.
2016
Oct
.201
660
70
80
90
100
110
120
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
CPI based real effective exchange rate) PPI based real effective exchange rate
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
24
Source: MNB, ÁKKNote: Individual dot shows the budget forecast. Cumulated balance.
44. Monthly evolution of budget deficit
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: MNB, ÁKK.Note: Redumptions in the recent quarter are included.
45. Quarterly maturity structure of the government debt
Jun.
2017
Mar
.201
8
Dec.
2018
Sep.
2019
Jun.
2020
Mar
.202
1
Dec.
2021
Sep.
2022
Jun.
2023
Mar
.202
4
Sep.
2025
Jun.
2026
Mar
.202
7
Dec.
2027
Sep.
2028
Jun.
2029
Mar
.203
0
Dec.
2030
Sep.
2031
Jun.
2032
Mar
.203
3
Dec.
2033
Sep.
2034
Jun.
2035
Mar
.203
6
Dec.
2036
Sep.
2037
Jun.
2038
Mar
.203
9
Dec.
2039
Sep.
2040
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Government bonds T-bills Retail government bonds HUF loans IMF-EU loan FX bonds
Other FX debt
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
25
46. The latest central projection of the MNB compared to other prognoses
2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI (annual average growth rate, %)
MNB (MAR 2017) 0.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 Consensus Economics (APR 2017)¹ 0.4 2.0 - 2.6 - 3.3 2.2 - 2.8 - 3.5 European Commission (MAY 2017) 0.4 2.9 3.2 IMF (APR 2017) 0.4 2.5 3.3 3.0 OECD (NOV 2016) 0.1 1.4 2.5 Reuters survey (APR 2017)¹ 2.3 - 2.7 - 3.1 2.4 - 2.9 - 3.5 2.8 - 3.0 - 3.5 GDP (annual growth rate, %)
MNB (MAR 2017) 2.2 (2.0) 3.6 3.7 3.2 Consensus Economics (APR 2017)¹ 2.0 2.2 - 3.2 - 4.0 2.2 - 3.1 - 4.1 European Commission (MAY 2017) 2.0 3.6 3.5 IMF (APR 2017) 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.6 OECD (NOV 2016) 1.7 2.5 2.2 Reuters survey (APR 2017)¹ 2.7 - 3.5 - 4.0 2.2 - 3.2 - 4.1 Current account balance³
MNB (MAR 2017) 4.9 3.3 2.4 2.9 European Commission (MAY 2017) 5.0 3.5 2.8 IMF (APR 2017) 4.3 3.7 3.0 2.2 OECD(NOV 2016) 6.8 6.7 5.7 Budget deficit (ESA-95 method()3,4
MNB (MAR 2017) -1.3 (-1.6) - (-2.0) (-2.0) - (-2.2) (-1.8) - (-2.0) Consensus Economics (APR 2017)¹ -1.7 (-0.2) - (-2.2) - (-2.9) (-0.1) - (-2.4) - (-3.0) European Commission (MAY 2017) -1.8 -2.3 -2.4 IMF (APR 2017) -1.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 OECD (NOV 2016) -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 Reuters survey (APR 2017)¹ (-1.2) - (-2.3) - (-2.8) (-2.0) - (-2.5) - (-2.8) Forecasts on the size of Hungary's export markets (annual growth rate, %) MNB (MAR 2017) 3.8 3.0 3.2 2.8 European Commission (MAY 2017)² 4.0 4.9 5.0 IMF (APR 2017)² 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.6 OECD (NOV 2016)² 3.4 3.7 3.9 Forecasts on the GDP growth rate of Hungary's trade partners (annual growth rate, %) MNB (MAR 2017) 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Consensus Economics(APR 2017)¹ 2.2 2.1 2.1 European Commission (MAY 2017)² 2.2 2.2 2.3 IMF (APR 2017)² 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 OECD (MAR 2017)² 2.0 2.0 2.0
.
1 For Reuters and Consensus Economics surveys, in addition to the average value of the analysed replies (i.e. the median value), we also indicate the lowest and the highest values to illustrate the distribution of the data. 2 Values calculated by the MNB; the projections of the named institutions for the relevant countries are adjusted with the weighting system of the MNB, which is also used for the calculation of the bank’s own external demand indices. Certain institutions do not prepare forecast for all partner countries. 3 As a percentage of GDP. 4 With complete cancellation of free reserves. Source: Consensus Economics, European Commission, IMF, OECD, Reuters poll
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
26
47. Domestic financial developments Overview
Indicator
One month ago One week ago Current
HUF/EUR spot exchange rate 313.7 310.4 309.7
Skewness of expectations on HUF/EUR exchange rate 0.98 0.87 0.87
HUF-positions of foreign investors (HUF billions) -1810 -1777 -1656
Forward positions of domestic investors (HUF billions) 1508 1260 1086
MNB base rate (%) 0.90 0.90 0.90
Expected short-term interbank rate at the end of the year (%)* 0.24 0.23 0.20
3-months interbank rate (%) 0.18 0.18 0.18
3x6 FRA rate (%) 0.18 0.17 0.20
3 month T-bill yield (%) 0.07 0.08 0.07
5 year T-bond yield (%) 2.07 1.88 1.86
Slope of yield curve (10Y-1Y, bp) 319 292 296
O/N FX-swap spread (bp) -7 -5 -25
3-month FX-swap spread (bp) -7 -11 -7
5-year FX-swap spread (bp) -12 -18 -19
5-year CDS spread (bp) 115 113 114
5x5 goverment bond spread (bp)** 329 291 278
Average spread of USD-denominated government bonds (bp) 7 17 18
Foreign holdings of HUF-government bonds (HUF billion) 3270 3291 3296
Notes:
* Based on forward yield curve.
** Over Germany yield.
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
27
Source: Datastream
Note: reverse scale, daily observations.
48. Developments in HUF exchange rateJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017
286
290
294
298
302
306
310
314
318
322
326
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) USD/HUF CHF/HUF
HUF HUF
Source: Thomson Reuters Note: reverse scale.
49. Developments in HUF exchange rate (last month)
19.A
pr
20.A
pr
21.A
pr
24.A
pr
25.A
pr
26.A
pr
27.A
pr
28.A
pr
01.M
ay
02.M
ay
03.M
ay
05.M
ay
08.M
ay
09.M
ay
10.M
ay
11.M
ay
12.M
ay
15.M
ay
16.M
ay
17.M
ay
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
270
275
280
285
290
295
300
305
310
EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) USD/HUF CHF/HUF
HUF HUF
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
28
Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cumulative change. Positive values mean appreciation.
50. Emerging markets exchange rateJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
Apr.2
014
Jun.
2014
Aug.
2014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Dec.
2014
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
May
.201
7-15
-10
-5
0
5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR RON/EUR
percent percent
Source: Thomson Reuters. Note: cumulative change, negative value means depreciation of the local currency.
51. Emerging markets exchange rate (last month)
19.A
pr
20.A
pr
21.A
pr
24.A
pr
25.A
pr
26.A
pr
27.A
pr
28.A
pr
01.M
ay
02.M
ay
03.M
ay
05.M
ay
08.M
ay
09.M
ay
10.M
ay
11.M
ay
12.M
ay
15.M
ay
16.M
ay
17.M
ay
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR RON/EUR
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
29
Source: BloombergNote: implied volatility (based on foreign exchange option quotes) can be interpreted as an indicator of risk perceived by the market.
52. Volatility of exchange rate expectations
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Dec
.201
3
Mar
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Oct
.201
4
Feb.
2015
May
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Jan.
2016
Apr
.201
6
Aug
.201
6
Nov
.201
6
Mar
.201
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR USD/EUR
percent percent
Source: BloombergNotes: based on option quotes for 1-month 25D risk reversal; skewness=RR/Volatility*10. Risk reversal can be regarded as a nominal indicator for the skewness of the distribution of exchange rate expectations, while skewness eliminates the effect of changes in volatility.
53. Skewness of exchange rate expectations
Jan.
2013
Apr.
2013
Aug.
2013
Nov
.201
3
Mar
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Jan.
2015
May
.201
5
Aug.
2015
Dec
.201
5
Mar
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Oct
.201
6
Feb.
2017
May
.201
7
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR USD/EUR
Source: MNBNotes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.
54. Turnover on the spot and the FX-swap market
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Dec
.201
3
Apr
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Nov
.201
4
Mar
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Oct
.201
5
Feb.
2016
Jun.
2016
Sep.
2016
Jan.
2017
May
.201
7
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Spot exchange market (25-day moving average, LHS)
FW-swap market (25-day moving average)
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: MNB Note: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.
55. Turnover on the forward and option market
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Dec
.201
3
Mar
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Nov
.201
4Fe
b.20
15Ju
n.20
15
Sep.
2015
Jan.
2016
May
.201
6
Aug
.201
6
Dec
.201
6A
pr.2
017
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Option market (25-day moving average, LHS)
Forward FX-market (25-day moving average)
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
30
Source: MNB.
56. Open FX-positions of non-residents in HUF
20.F
eb
23.F
eb
28.F
eb
03.M
ar
08.M
ar
13.M
ar
16.M
ar
21.M
ar
24.M
ar
29.M
ar
03.A
pr
06.A
pr
11.A
pr
18.A
pr
21.A
pr
26.A
pr
01.M
ay
04.M
ay
09.M
ay
12.M
ay
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100 307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
long HUF short HUF total net position exchange rate (reversed RHS)
HUF billions HUF/EUR
Source: MNBNote: Based on daily reports of credit institutions. Due to the nature of the daily reports of banks on FX transactions the components of the statistic do not close to zero. As a result information contained in the data series is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuation. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revision due to reporting error and non-standard transactions might lead to subsequent modification of the data series.
57. Cumulated positions of non-residents in HUF and the EURHUF exchange rate
Jan.
2013
Apr.
2013
Aug.
2013
Dec
.201
3
Apr.
2014
Jul.2
014
Nov
.201
4
Mar
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Nov
.201
5
Mar
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Feb.
2017
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500 280
285
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
Forward position of domestic investors
Speculative position of foreign investors
EUR/HUF rate (RHS, reverse scale)
HUF billions HUF/EUR
Source: MNB Note:20-day moving averages.
58. Forward agreements of non-financial institutions
Jan
.201
3
Ap
r.20
13
Au
g.20
13N
ov.
2013
Mar
.201
4Ju
l.201
4
Oct
.201
4Fe
b.2
015
Jun
.201
5
Sep
.201
5Ja
n.2
016
May
.201
6A
ug.
2016
Dec
.201
6A
pr.
2017
30
50
70
90
110
130
150 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Average maturity
Average transaction size (RHS, reversed scale)
day HUF million
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
31
Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters Note: implied HUF yields based on trades in case of O/N maturity and based on USD/HUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters in the cases of 6-month maturity.
59. Implied HUF rates on FX-swap market
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3N
ov.2
013
Feb.
2014
Jun.
2014
Sep.
2014
Jan.
2015
Apr
.201
5A
ug.2
015
Nov
.201
5Fe
b.20
16Ju
n.20
16Se
p.20
16
Jan.
2017
Apr
.201
7
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Interest rate corridor 6M O/N
percent percent
Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.Notes: Based on USD/HUF swap quotes.
60. Implied yield curve on FX-swap markets
ON 1M 3M 6M 9M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017
percent percent
Source: Thomson Reuters.
61. Difference between short-term interbank yieldsand FX-swap market implied yields
Jan.
2012
May
.201
2
Oct
.201
2
Mar
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Dec
.201
3
May
.201
4
Oct
.201
4M
ar.2
015
Jul.2
015
Dec
.201
5M
ay.2
016
Sep.
2016
Jan.
2017
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
O/N 1 week 1 month 3 month
basis point basis point
Source: Thomson Reuters.
62. Difference between long-term interbank yieldsand FX-swap market implied yields
Jan.
2012
May
.201
2
Sep.
2012
Feb.
2013
Jul.2
013
Nov
.201
3
Apr
.201
4A
ug.2
014
Jan.
2015
May
.201
5Se
p.20
15
Mar
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Nov
.201
6
Apr
.201
7
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
basis point basis point
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
32
Source: MNBNote: net FX-swap stock is defined as a difference of HUF-buying and FX-buying transactions.
63. Net FX-swap stock of non-residents by maturityJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Aug.
2013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Feb.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Shorter than 1W Between 1W and 3M Between 3M and 1Y Longer than 1Y
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: MNBNotes: due to the nature of the daily reports of the banks on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations.An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.Calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.
64. Forint FX-swap stock and cumulated HUF purchase of non-residents
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Aug.
2013
Oct.2
013
Nov.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
Apr.2
014
Jun.
2014
Aug.
2014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Jan.
2015
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Dec.2
015
Feb.
2016
Apr.2
016
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct.2
016
Dec.2
016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
70
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Net FX-swap stock Cummulated HUF buying (RHS)
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
33
Source: MNBNote: due to the nature of daily reports by banks on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations.An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.Calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.
65. Gross FX-swap stocks of foreign investors by maturityJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Aug.
2013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.2
013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct.2
014
Dec.2
014
Feb.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct.2
015
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Dec.2
016
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
HUF/FX (below 1W)
HUF/FX (1W-3M)
HUF/FX (3M-1Y)
HUF/FX (above 1Y)
FX/HUF (shorter than 1W)
FX/HUF (1W-3M)
FX/HUF (3M-1Y)
FX/HUF (above 1Y)
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: Thomson Reuters.
66. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in CEE
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
0170
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEE composite
basis point basis point
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
34
Source: Thomson Reuters
67. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets (last month)20
.Feb
23.F
eb
28.F
eb
03.M
ar
08.M
ar
13.M
ar
16.M
ar
21.M
ar
24.M
ar
29.M
ar
03.A
pr
06.A
pr
11.A
pr
14.A
pr
19.A
pr
24.A
pr
27.A
pr
02.M
ay
05.M
ay
10.M
ay
15.M
ay
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia
basis point basis point
Source: Thomson Reuters.
68. 5 year sovereign CDS spread in Hungary versus CEEMEA composite index
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Aug.
2014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Jan.
2015
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Feb.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Hungary-CEEMEA composite spread (RHS) Hungary CEEMEA composite
basis point basis point
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
35
Source: Bloomberg Note: based on factor analysis on daily CDS spread changes. Cumulated series. Increases/decreases of component time series denote contributions to CDS spread increases/decreases.
69. Components of Hungarian 5 year sovereign CDSJa
n.20
15
Jan.
2015
Feb.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.2
015
May
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Dec.
2015
Dec.
2015
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
May
.201
6Ju
n.20
16Ju
l.201
6
Aug.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7Ap
r.201
7M
ay.2
017-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Country-specific component International components Hungarian CDS spread (RHS)
basis point basis point
Note: Based on swap rates by Reuters
70. 5 year implied spreads over euro rates in 5 year time
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Oct
.201
3De
c.20
13
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Aug.
2014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Jan.
2015
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Feb.
2016
Mar
.201
6M
ay.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7Ap
r.201
7-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
HUF CZK PLN
basis point basis point
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
36
Source: Thomson Datastream.Notes: calculated from JP Morgan Euro EMBI data. The series are differences between euro denominated (liquid) foreign currency bond yields and euro zero coupon yields of the corresponding maturities. Different durations may result in significant difference in the level of spreads.
71. Emerging markets FX denominated government bond spreadsJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Hungary Romania Bulgaria CEE composite
basis point basis point
Source: Bloomberg. Notes: Spread between EUR and USD denominated FX-bonds and the equivalent US T-bond or euro yields chosen by Bloomberg. We present bonds grouped by currency in order of maturity.
72. Domestic FX-government bond
EUR USD
Jun.
2018
Jan.
2019
Feb.
2020
Feb.
2018
Mar
.201
9
Jan.
2020
Mar
.202
1
Feb.
2023
Nov.
2023
Mar
.202
4
Mar
.204
10
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017
basis point basis point
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
37
Source: Thomson Reuters
73. Interbank yields
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Nov.
2013
Jan.
2014
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Aug.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
May
.201
70
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
3M 1Y 5Y 10Y
percent percent
Source: Thomson Reuters.
74. Yields of benchmark government securities
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Aug.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Nov.
2014
Jan.
2015
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Dec.
2015
Feb.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Aug.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7Ap
r.201
70
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
3M 1Y 5Y 10Y
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
38
Source: Thomson ReutersNote: Spread between the benchmark government bond yield of the given maturity and the interbank rates.
75. Government securities - interbank yield spreadsJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
3M 1Y 5Y 10Y
basis point basis point
Source: Thomson Reuters.
76. Yields of benchmark government securities (last month)
19.A
pr
19.A
pr
20.A
pr
21.A
pr
21.A
pr
24.A
pr
25.A
pr
26.A
pr
26.A
pr
27.A
pr
28.A
pr
01.M
ay
01.M
ay
02.M
ay
03.M
ay
03.M
ay
04.M
ay
05.M
ay
08.M
ay
08.M
ay
09.M
ay
10.M
ay
11.M
ay
11.M
ay
12.M
ay
15.M
ay
16.M
ay
16.M
ay
17.M
ay
18.M
ay
18.M
ay
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
3M 1Y 5Y 10Y
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
39
Source: MNB, ÁKK. Note: calculated by Svenson method by MNB. X axis shows maturities, in years.
77. Implied 3 month forward interest rate yield curve (based on government securities yields)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017
percent percent
Note: Calculated from FRA-s, and IRS by spline method. X axis shows maturities, in years.
78. Implied 3 month forward interest rate yield curve (based on interbank yields)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017
percent percent
Source: Thomson ReutersNote: X axis shows maturities, in years. Estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds.
79. Spread between 3-month forward yields in EURand HUF
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Euro 17/05/2017
Forint 17/05/2017
Spread 17/05/2017
Euro 19/04/2017
Forint 19/04/2017
Spread 19/04/2017
percent percent
Source: MNB, Bloomberg.
80. Hungarian government bond yield curve andforeign currency bond yields
Jun.
2017
May
.201
9
May
.202
1
May
.202
3
Apr
.202
5
Apr
.202
7
Mar
.202
9
Mar
.203
1
Mar
.203
3
Feb.
2035
Feb.
2037
Feb.
2039
Jan.
2041
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
HUF zero-coupon yield curve USD yield
HUF benchmark EUR yield
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
40
Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB Note: Risk-free rate: German 5-year rate; Credit risk premium: 5-year Hungarian CDS spread; Liquidity premium: 5-year interest rate swap spread; others: based on residuals.
81. Decomposition of 5 year government bond yieldJa
n.20
13Fe
b.20
13
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Oct
.201
3De
c.20
13
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Aug.
2014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Jan.
2015
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Feb.
2016
Mar
.201
6M
ay.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7Ap
r.201
7-200
0
200
400
600
800
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Risk-free yield Liquidity premia Risk premia Other elements 5 years yield (RHS)
basis point basis point
Source: Bloomberg Note: Spread between 10 and 1 year local curreny benchmark government bond yield.
82. Slope of yield curve in CEE
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4Ap
r.201
4Ju
n.20
14
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Dec.
2014
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
May
.201
5Ju
l.201
5
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
May
.201
70
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Hungary Czech Republic Poland
basis point basis point
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
41
Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB
83. MNB base rate and money market rates
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Nov
.201
3
Mar
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Jan.
2015
May
.201
5
Sep.
2015
Dec
.201
5
Mar
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Oct
.201
6
Feb.
2017
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Interest rate corridor Base rate
3M BUBOR rate 1X4 FRA HUFONIA
percent percent
Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB.
84. Difference between the 3 month FRA quotes and the current base rate
19/04/2017 10/05/2017 17/05/2017
1x4 2x5 3x6 1x4 2x5 3x6 1x4 2x5 3x6
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
FRA-BUBOR BUBOR-base rate
FRA-base rate
basis point basis point
Source: MNB.
85. Implied 3 month forward interest rate curve (based on interbank yields)
May
.201
5A
ug.2
015
Dec
.201
5
Mar
.201
6Ju
n.20
16Se
p.20
16
Jan.
2017
Apr
.201
7Ju
l.201
7
Oct
.201
7Ja
n.20
18M
ay.2
018
Aug
.201
8N
ov.2
018
Mar
.201
9
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017
percent percent
Source: MNB.
86. Implied 3 month forward interest rate curve (based on government bond yields)
May
.201
5A
ug.2
015
Dec
.201
5
Mar
.201
6Ju
n.20
16Se
p.20
16
Jan.
2017
Apr
.201
7Ju
l.201
7
Oct
.201
7Ja
n.20
18M
ay.2
018
Aug
.201
8N
ov.2
018
Mar
.201
9
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
42
Source: Thomson Reuters.
87. Base rates and short term interbank rates in the regionJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Hungarian base rate
Hungarian interbank rate
Czech base rate
Czech interbank rate
Polish base rate
Polish interbank rate
Romanian base rate
Romanian interbank rate
percent percent
Source: BloombergNote: Based on FRA transactions. Last update: (17/05/2017).
88. CEE base rates and forward rate aggreements
May
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Aug.
2015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Apr.2
016
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7
Apr.2
017
May
.201
7Ju
l.201
7
Aug.
2017
Sep.
2017
Nov.
2017
Dec.
2017
Jan.
2018
Mar
.201
8
Apr.2
018
May
.201
8Ju
l.201
8
Aug.
2018
Sep.
2018
Nov.
2018
Dec.
2018
Jan.
2019
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Hungary Poland Czech Republic
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
43
Source: MNBNote: Based on reporting by domestic banks.
89. Turnover on the interbank, HUF repo, and FRA markets (25 day moving average)Ja
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4Ap
r.201
4Ju
n.20
14
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Dec.
2014
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
May
.201
5Ju
l.201
5
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
May
.201
70
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Unsecured money market Repo market FRA market
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: MNB.
90. Change in government securities of non-residents by tenor
Jan.
2015
Jan.
2015
Feb.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.2
015
May
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Oct
.201
5No
v.20
15
Dec.
2015
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Mar
.201
6Ap
r.201
6
May
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Jul.2
016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
Apr.2
017-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Maturing before 31 Dec. 2017 Maturing between 1 Jan. 2018 and 31 Dec. 2020 Maturing later than 1 Jan. 2021
Total amount
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
44
Source: MNB Note: Last month is incomplete.
91. Decomposition of change in government securities held by non-residents (last months)Ja
n.20
15
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
T-bill maturity
Bond auction
Bond maturity
Secondary market
T-bill auction
Total
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: MNB, KELERNote: Cumulative change. Equity data are not comprehensive, it contains data for large- and mid-cap stocks quoted on the Budapest Stock Exchange.
92. Forint financial assets held by non-residents
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Oct
.201
3De
c.20
13
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Aug.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Nov.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Aug.
2015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7M
ay.2
017-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Government bond MNB bond Equity
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
45
Source: MNBNote: Last month is incomplete.
93. Primary market goverment security purchase of domestic and non-resident investors
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
70
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Foreign demand within 1 year Foreign demand over 1 year Domestic demand within 1 year
Domestic demand over 1 year
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: MNB.
94. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3A
ug.2
013
Nov
.201
3M
ar.2
014
Jul.2
014
Oct
.201
4Fe
b.20
15
Jun.
2015
Sep.
2015
Jan.
2016
May
.201
6A
ug.2
016
Dec
.201
6
Mar
.201
7
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
T-bill stock Government bond stock
Share of total stock (RHS)
HUF billions percent
Source: MNB.
95. Government bonds held by non-residents and the share of the total amount outstanding (last months)
20
.Fe
b
27
.Fe
b
06
.Mar
13
.Mar
21
.Mar
28
.Mar
04
.Ap
r
11
.Ap
r
20
.Ap
r
27
.Ap
r
05
.May
12
.May
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
20,0
21,0
22,0
23,0
24,0
25,0
26,0
27,0
Stocks of foreign holders
Share of total stock (RHS)
HUF billions percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
46
Source: MNBNote: Based on HUF government bonds and T-bills.
96. The average time to maturity of government security portfolio of residents and non-residents
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Nov.
2013
Jan.
2014
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Aug.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
May
.201
72
3
4
5
6
2
3
4
5
6
Foreign holders Domestic holders Total stock
year year
Source: ÁKKNotes: the turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues. In case of floating rate bonds the yield data are not be plotted.
97. The turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary T-bill and T-bond issues
3 months 12 months 3 years 5 years 10 years
02/0
5/20
17
09/0
5/20
17
16/0
5/20
17
20/0
4/20
17
04/0
5/20
17
18/0
5/20
17
27/0
4/20
17
11/0
5/20
17
18/0
5/20
17
27/0
4/20
17
04/0
5/20
17
11/0
5/20
17
13/0
4/20
17
27/0
4/20
17
11/0
5/20
17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
Offered Bid Accepted Min yield (RHS) Max yield (RHS) Average yield (RHS)
HUF billions percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
47
Source: MNB.
98. Government securities issues, buybacks, redemptionsJa
n.20
14
Feb.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.2
015
May
.201
5Ju
l.201
5
Aug.
2015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Dec.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6Ap
r.201
6
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7
Apr.2
017-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Net T-bill issue Bond issue Bond buyback Bond maturity Total change
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: MNB, KELER.
99. Turnover on the secondary market of government securities
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Aug.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
70
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
Shorter than 1 year 1 to 3 years 3 to 5 years Longer than 5 years
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
48
Source: MNB.
100. Selected assets and liabilities of the MNBJa
n.20
12
Mar
.201
2
May
.201
2
Jul.2
012
Sep.
2012
Nov.
2012
Jan.
2013
Mar
.201
3
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Total HUF liquidity O/N loan 1-/2-week loan 3-/6-month loan Reserve holdings O/N deposit
Limited 2-week assets 3-/6-month deposit FX-swap 2-week deposit
HUF billions HUF billions
Source: MNB.
101. Use of facilities of the MNB beside the main instrument
20.A
pr
21.A
pr
22.A
pr
23.A
pr
24.A
pr
25.A
pr
26.A
pr
27.A
pr
28.A
pr
29.A
pr
30.A
pr
01.M
ay
02.M
ay
03.M
ay
04.M
ay
05.M
ay
06.M
ay
07.M
ay
08.M
ay
09.M
ay
10.M
ay
11.M
ay
12.M
ay
13.M
ay
14.M
ay
15.M
ay
16.M
ay
17.M
ay
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
O/N balance FX-swap 1-/2-week loan 3-/6-month loan
HUF billions HUF billions
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
49
102. International developments Overview
Indicator
1 month ago 1 week ago Current
Fed base rate (%) 1.00 1.00 1.00
ECB base rate (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-year T-bond yield (%) 2.21 2.33 2.23
10-year euro yield (%) 0.20 0.39 0.34
VIX Index (%) 14.9 10.4 14.7
EMBI Global spread (bp) 335 319 331
SP 500 Index 2338 2391 2357
DAX Index 12016 12770 12590
NIKKEI Index 18736
USD/EUR exchange rate 1.07 1.09 1.11
USD/JPY exchange rate 108.87 113.35 111.50
CHF/EUR exchange rate 1.07 1.09 1.13
Brent oil (USD per barrel) 54.5 50.6 52.6
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
50
Source: Thomson ReutersNote: cumulative change. Positive values indicate USD depreciation.
103. Major currencies versus the dollarJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
USD/EUR USD/GBP USD/CHF USD/JPY
percent percent
Source: Thomson Reuters Notes: positive value means deprieciation of the emerging currency. Cumulative change.
104. Emerging currencies versus the dollar
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017-50
0
50
100
150
200
-50
0
50
100
150
200
USD/ZAR USD/PLN USD/RUB USD/TRY USD/HUF
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
51
Source: Thomson ReutersNotes: cumulative change.
105. Developed market stock indicesJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4Ap
r.201
4Ju
n.20
14
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Dec.
2014
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
May
.201
5Ju
l.201
5
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
May
.201
7-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
SP 500 DAX NIKKEI MSCI World Index
percent percent
Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cummulative change, MSCI stock indices.
106. Emerging stock exchange markets
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4Ap
r.201
4Ju
n.20
14
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Dec.
2014
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
May
.201
5Ju
l.201
5
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
May
.201
7-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MSCI Asia MSCI Eastern Europe MSCI LatAm BUX
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
52
Source: Bloomberg, CTFC.Notes: Speculative position is defined as a net of long and short transactions. Positive value means the majority of open positions on euro strengthening. Weekly datab by Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
107. EUR/USD exchange rate and speculative positionsJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Aug.
2014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Jan.
2015
Feb.
2015
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Feb.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
0171,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40
1,45
1,50
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
EUR/USD exchange rate Number of cummulative positions (RHS)
exchange rate contracts[x1000]
Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cumulative change except the Brent oil where the scale is nominal.
108. Price of raw materials
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Aug.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov.
2016
Jan.
2017
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
017-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oil (brent, RHS) GSCI agriculture index Gold GSCI raw material index
percent USD/barrel
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
53
Source: Thomson Reuters.
109. Short term interbank rates in the eurozone
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Dec
.201
3
Apr
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Nov
.201
4
Mar
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Feb.
2016
May
.201
6
Sep.
2016
Dec
.201
6
Apr
.201
7
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
-0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
-0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
ECB main refinance rate 1M OIS
3M EURIBOR 3x6 FRA
percent percent
Source: Thomson Reuters.
110. Short term interbank rates in Switzerland
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Dec
.201
3
Apr
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Nov
.201
4
Mar
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Feb.
2016
May
.201
6
Sep.
2016
Dec
.201
6
Apr
.201
7
-1,0
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
-1,0
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
SNB base rate 1M OIS 3M LIBOR
percent percent
Source: ECB.Note: Calculated 3-months forward yield curve based on German goverment bonds.
111. Forecasts on ECB policy rate
Jan.
2015
May
.201
5Se
p.20
15
Feb.
2016
Jun.
2016
Nov
.201
6M
ar.2
017
Aug
.201
7D
ec.2
017
May
.201
8Se
p.20
18
Feb.
2019
Jun.
2019
Nov
.201
9M
ar.2
020
-1,0
-0,8
-0,5
-0,3
0,0
0,3
0,5
0,8
1,0
-1,0
-0,8
-0,5
-0,3
0,0
0,3
0,5
0,8
1,0
ECB rate 17/05/2017 10/05/2017
19/04/2017
percent percent
Source: Bloomberg.
112. Forecasts on Fed policy rate
Sep.
2014
Dec
.201
4Fe
b.20
15M
ay.2
015
Jul.2
015
Oct
.201
5Ja
n.20
16M
ar.2
016
Jun.
2016
Sep.
2016
Nov
.201
6Fe
b.20
17A
pr.2
017
Jul.2
017
Oct
.201
7D
ec.2
017
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
Fed funds rate 17/05/2017 10/05/2017
19/04/2017
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
54
Source: Thomson Reuters.Notes: Spread between 3-month interbank rates and 3-month T-bill yield.
113. 3M interbank and government bond yield spread
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Nov
.201
3
Mar
.201
4Ju
n.20
14
Oct
.201
4
Jan.
2015
May
.201
5
Aug
.201
5
Dec
.201
5M
ar.2
016
Jul.2
016
Oct
.201
6
Feb.
2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Euro Dollar
basis point basis point
Source: Thomson Reuters
114. 3M interbank and OIS yield spread
Jan.
2013
Apr
.201
3
Aug
.201
3
Nov
.201
3
Mar
.201
4Ju
n.20
14
Oct
.201
4
Jan.
2015
May
.201
5
Aug
.201
5
Dec
.201
5M
ar.2
016
Jul.2
016
Oct
.201
6
Feb.
2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Euro Dollar
basis point basis point
Source: Thomson Reuters.
115. Long term euro and dollar benchmark yields
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.
2013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec
.201
3
Feb.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4Ju
l.201
4Au
g.20
14
Oct
.201
4
Nov
.201
4
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.
2015
Jun.
2015
Aug.
2015
Sep.
2015
Nov
.201
5
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Apr.
2016
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec
.201
6
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
7
May
.201
7-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
10Y USD 10Y EUR
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
55
Source: Thomson Reuters.
116. 5Y sovereign CDS in the eurozone peripheryJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Aug.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
70
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Portugal Spain Ireland Italy
basis point basis point
Source: BloombergNote: X axis is displayed in years.
117. Benchmark yield curves of Hungary, Poland, Italy and Germany COPY
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
HU 17/05/2017
HU 19/04/2017
PL 17/05/2017
PL 19/04/2017
IT 17/05/2017
IT 19/04/2017
GE 17/05/2017
GE 19/04/2017
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
56
Source: Thomson ReutersNote: An upward move indicates declining risk appetite or increasing risk aversion. VIX is the implied volatility of SP500 index.
118. Main risk indicatorsJa
n.20
13Fe
b.20
13
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3Ju
l.201
3
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Dec.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4
Apr.2
014
Jun.
2014
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Nov.
2014
Dec.
2014
Feb.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jul.2
015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7M
ay.2
0170
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
VIX index EUR/USD 1M Implied volatility EMBI Global (RHS)
percent basis point
Source: Bloomberg.
119. Long term government bond yields in the Eurozone periphery
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
Jun.
2013
Jul.2
013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Apr.2
014
May
.201
4
Jul.2
014
Aug.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
May
.201
5
Jun.
2015
Aug.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Feb.
2016
Apr.2
016
Jun.
2016
Jul.2
016
Sep.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Mar
.201
70
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Spain Italy Greece (RHS) Portugal (RHS)
percent percent
Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17
57
Source:EPFRNote: Percentage change of asset under management, 1/1/2011=0
120. Emerging bond-market flowsJa
n.20
13
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Sep.
2013
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
Mar
.201
4
May
.201
4
Jun.
2014
Aug.
2014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.2
015
Jul.2
015
Sep.
2015
Oct
.201
5
Dec.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6
May
.201
6
Jul.2
016
Aug.
2016
Oct
.201
6
Dec.
2016
Jan.
2017
Mar
.201
7-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Hungary Czech Republic Poland Romania Emerging countries
percent percent
Source:EPFRNote: Percentage change of asset under management, 1/1/2011=1
121. Global bond-market flows
Jan.
2013
Feb.
2013
Apr.2
013
May
.201
3
Jul.2
013
Aug.
2013
Oct
.201
3
Nov.
2013
Jan.
2014
Mar
.201
4Ap
r.201
4
Jun.
2014
Jul.2
014
Sep.
2014
Oct
.201
4
Dec.
2014
Jan.
2015
Mar
.201
5
Apr.2
015
Jun.
2015
Aug.
2015
Sep.
2015
Nov.
2015
Jan.
2016
Mar
.201
6M
ay.2
016
Jul.2
016
Aug.
2016
Nov.
2016
Dec.
2016
Feb.
2017
Apr.2
01710
20
30
40
50
60
10
20
30
40
50
60
Emerging Europe Middle-East Latin America Emerging Asia Africa
percent percent