charts for inflation report 1/2002. source: ecowin chart 1.1 gdp growth in the us, the euro area and...
TRANSCRIPT
Charts for Inflation Report 1/2002
Source: EcoWin
Chart 1.1 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and Japan. Percentage change from previous quarter (annual rate)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
sep.00 des.00 mar.01 jun.01 sep.01 des.01-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6US Euro area Japan
Long rates
Prices for industrials
Wilshire 5000
Sources: Norges Bank, EcoWin, The Economist and Wilshire Associates
Chart 1.2 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US and prices for industrials (USD). Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-0270
80
90
100
110
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank
Chart 1.3 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 20020
10
20
30
40
Source: Norges Bank
Import-weighted exchange rate(Week 1 1995=100)
Trade-weighted exchange rate (1990=100)
Chart 1.4 Effective NOK exchange rates. Import-weighted exchange rate and trade-weighted exchange rate
90
95
100
105
110
115
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200290
95
100
105
110
115
Source: Statistics Norway
Volume
Price
Chart 1.5 Traditional merchandise exports. Volume and price. Percentage rise on same quarter previous year
-10
0
10
20
30
1999 2000 2001-10
0
10
20
30
Sources: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS and Norges Bank
Combined confidence indicator
Confidence in own financial situation
Confidence in country's economy
Chart 1.6 Consumer confidence indicator (level). Estimated trend.
-35
-20
-5
10
25
40
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02-35
-20
-5
10
25
40
1999
2000
Source: Statistics Norway
2001
Chart 1.7 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
Credit to households
C2
C3 mainland Norway
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.8 The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent
0
5
10
15
1997 1998 1999 2000 20010
5
10
15
0
25
50
75
100
125
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
25
50
75
100
125
LFS unemployment
1) LFS unemployment: 3-month moving average
Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
Registered unemployed and labour market programmes
Registered unemployed
Chart 1.9 Number unemployed (LFS), number of registered unemployed and persons in labour market programmes. In thousands. Seasonally adjusted1)
Whole country
Western Norway
Eastern NorwayCentral and northern Norway
Southern Norway
Source: Directorate of Labour
Chart 1.10 Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway2) Norges Bank's estimatesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
Chart 1.11 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per cent
-3
-1
1
3
5
1999 2000 2001 2002-3
-1
1
3
5
Source: Statistics Norway
Services with wages as a dominant price factor
House rent
Transport services
CPI
Chart 1.12 Consumer prices by delivery sector. 12-month rise. Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1999 2000 2001 20020
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Imported consumer goodsCars
Clothing and footwear
Chart 1.13 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes. Cars, clothing and footwear and imported consumer goods. 12-month rise. Per cent
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1999 2000 2001 2002-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0
1
2
3
4
1999 2000 2001 20020
1
2
3
4
CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changesCPI-ATE: CPI adj. for tax changes and ex energy products1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI
CPI-AT1)
CPI-ATE1)
Chart 1.14 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent
-20
-5
10
25
40
1999 2000 2001 2002-20
-5
10
25
40
1) Electricity accounts for 3.3% of the total CPI. Fuel and lubricants account for 4.2% of the total CPI
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Fuel and lubricants
Electricity
Chart 1.15 Consumer prices. Energy-related products1). 12-month rise. Per cent
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank
Chart 2.1 Quarterly change in US GDP, annualised. Contribution to growth in volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2001 2002
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10Private consumptionPrivate investmentGov’t consumption and investment
Net exportInventoriesGDP
Saving ratio(left-hand scale)
Net wealth(right-hand scale)
Sources: Datastream, EcoWin, the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis
Chart 2.2 Private saving and household net wealth in the US as a percentage of disposable income
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 020
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
80
95
110
125
140
155
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Sources: EcoWin, the European Commission and The Conference Board
US (left-hand scale)
Euro area(right-hand scale)
Chart 2.3 Consumer confidence indicators in the US and the euro area
35
40
45
50
55
60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Sources: EcoWin, ISM and the European Commission
US (left-hand scale)
Euro area(right-hand scale)
Chart 2.4 Business sentiment indicators in the US and the euro area
90
100
110
120
130
90
100
110
120
130
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sources: EcoWin and Statistics Norway
Sweden
Euro areaUS
Norway
Chart 2.5 Industrial output. Seasonally adjusted indices, January 1997=0
Metals
Mechanical
Source: Statistics Norway
Electronic and optical
Chart 2.6 Unfilled orders in the technology industry.Value indices, 1995=100
50
75
100
125
150
50
75
100
125
150
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 2.7 Gross investment in petroleum activities. In billions of NOK. Constant 1997 prices
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200430
40
50
60
70
80
1) The budget balance is the change on the previous year, expressed as a percentage of trend mainland GDP.
Sources: National Budget and Supplementary Proposition 2002, Ministry of Finance
Chart 2.8 Structural non-oil budget balance1)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Wealth ratio(right-hand scale)
Saving ratio(left-hand scale)
Chart 2.9 Household saving and net financial wealth. Percentage of disposable income
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2.10 Household loan debt as a percentage of disposable income and household interest expense after tax as a percentage of cash income
Interest burden(right-hand scale)
Loan debt(left-hand scale)
90
110
130
150
170
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 000
3
6
9
12
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-0225
50
75
100
125
150
Source: EcoWin
Financial
IT
All-share index
Manufacturing
Chart 2.11 Developments in some indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 01.01.00-21.02.02. Indices, 3 January 2000 = 100
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 2.12 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2001.In 1000s of people employed.
250
300
350
400
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000250
300
350
400
85
90
95
100
105
110
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200485
90
95
100
105
110
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank
Local currency
Common currency
Chart 2.13 Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners. Index, 1990=100
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Unemployment rate(left-hand scale)
Employed(right-hand scale)
Chart 2.14 Change in number employed from previous year (in thousands) and LFS unemployment rate
-80
-40
0
40
80
0
2
4
6
8
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Labour force participation (per cent, left-hand scale)
Change in LFS labour force (thousands, right-hand scale)
Chart 2.15 Change in labour force from previous year, and labour force as a percentage of population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate)
64
66
68
70
72
74
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04-80
-40
0
40
80
1) Hourly labour costs in mainland Norway including the costs of additional vacation days. For 2001 we have excluded extraordinary pension payments to KLP (the municipal sector pension fund) in local government
Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
Registered unemployment and persons on labour market programmesRise in labour costs
Chart 3.1 Rise in labour costs1) and unemployment rate. Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 20000
2
4
6
8
1) Labour costs as a percentage of value added
2) Result for the year + net interest and financial costs as a share of total assets. Excluding oil companies
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Return on total assets (left-hand scale)
Wage share(right-hand scale)
Chart 3.2 Profitability in manufacturing. Wage share1) and return on total assets2)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 200066
68
70
72
74
76
78
Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and Norges Bank
Consumer prices
Producer prices
Chart 3.3 Producer and consumer prices for Norway's trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent
-3
-1
1
3
5
1999 2000 2001 2002-3
-1
1
3
5
-2
0
2
4
-2
0
2
4
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
Chart 3.4 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent
CPI
CPI-ATE
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3.5 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-040
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
4
6
8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8Forward rates21 February
1) 3-month money market rates up to 21 February. Three-month forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and five government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 21 February.
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rates 25 October
Chart 3.6 Expectations concerning short-term money market rates1). Per cent
Source: Norges Bank
21 February
25 October
Chart 3.7 Forward rate differential against Germany. Percentage points
0
1
2
3
4
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
Household saving ratio
1) OECD estimates for 2001Sources: OECD and Bureau of Economic Analysis
Current account
Chart 3.8 Household saving as a percentage of disposable income and the current account balance1) as a percentage of GDP in the US
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank
Futures prices20 February
IR 1/2002
Chart 3.9 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
10
20
30
40
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-040
1
2
3
4
2.52.5
1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE).
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
30% 50% 70% 90%
Chart 3.10 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent
Chart 3.11 Evaluation of the risks to the inflation projection for the first quarter of 2004
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Prob
abilit
y de
nsity
Source: Norges Bank
2½
50% 50%
To annex:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
2
4
6
8
10
12
Source: Norges Bank
Deposit rateAssumption
Overnight rate
3-month money market rate
90
95
100
105
110
115
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200490
95
100
105
110
115
Source: Norges Bank
Import-weighted exchange rate (Week 1 1995=100)
Trade-weighted exchange rate (1990=100)
IR 1/02: 101.8
IR 1/02: 94.4
0
5
10
15
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
5
10
15
Source: Norges Bank
Credit to households
C2
The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent
C3 mainland Norway
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-020.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Source: Norges Bank
CPI
Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
CPI-ATE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Euro area
US
Japan
3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan
Box:
Evaluation of Norges Bank's projections for
2000
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) Level2) Including the costs of additional vacation days
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1 Projections for some key variables for 2000 published at various times. Annual increase. Per cent
Mainlanddemand
Unemploy-ment1)
Wage growth2)
Price inflation
MainlandGDP
Projection for 2000 published in 1998Projection for 2000 publ. in 1999Actual figure 2000
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4Consensus Statistics NorwayFIN Norges BankActual figure 2000
Sources: Consensus Economics Inc., Statistics Norway (SN), Ministry of Finance (FIN) and Norges Bank
Chart 2 Estimates for some key variables for 2000 published in December 1999 by various institutions. Annual increase. Per cent
Consumer price inflationMainland GDP
Box:
Wage growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 20040
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1) For 2001 we have excluded extraordinary pension payments to KLP (municipal pension fund) in local government
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Actual wage growth
Estimated wage growth
Labour costs per person-hour, mainland Norway. Actual1) and estimated. Percentage change from previous year.
Box:
Have Norges Bank’s interest rate decisions
been anticipated?
Source: Norges Bank
Change in money market rates following Norges Bank's monetary policy meetings. 1 July 1999 - 25 January 2002. Percentage points
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Jul-99
Sep-99
Nov-99
Jan-00
Mar-00
May-00
Jul-00
Sep-00
Nov-00
Jan-01
Mar-01
May-01
Jul-01
Sep-01
Nov-01
Jan-02
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Change in deposit rateChange in 3-month interest rateChange in 1-month interest rate