chfp2: a coupled multi-seasonal forecast system for canada bill merryfield canadian centre for...
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CHFP2: A coupled multi-seasonal
forecast system for Canada
Bill Merryfield
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisVictoria, BC
In collaboration with:
Woo-Sung Lee, Slava Kharin, George Boer, John Scinocca, Greg Flato (CCCma)
Juan-Sebastian Fontecilla, Jacques Hodgson, Bertrand Denis, Benoit Archambault, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Lewis Poulin (CMC)
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WMO Global Producing Centresfor Long-Range Forecasts
GPCSystem
Configuration.
Atmospheric Model
Resolution
Hindcast Period
Year of Implementati
on
Washington, NCEP Coupled T126/L64 1982-2010Summer
2011
ECMWF Coupled T255/L92 1981-2010Late Fall
2011
Montreal, CMC Coupled2 Models T63/L31 T63/L35
1981-2010Late Fall
2011
Tokyo, JMA Coupled T95/L40 1979-2008 2010
Exeter, Met Office Coupled1.875x1.25/
L381981-2002 2009
Toulouse, Météo-Fr Coupled T63/L91 1997-2007 2008Beijing, BCC Coupled T63/L16 1983-2004 2005
Melbourne, BoM Coupled T47/L17 1980-2006 2002
Montreal, CMC 2-tier 4 Models 1969-20042007
to be retired in 2011
Seoul, KMA 2-tier T106/L21 1979-2007 1999 ?Cachoeira Paulista,
CPTEC2-tier T62/L28 1979-2001 2009
Moscow, HMC 2-tier 1.1x1.4/L28 1979-2003 2007Pretoria, SAWS 2-tier T42 1982-2001 2007
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Environment Canada’s Current Multi-Seasonal Forecasts
Dynamical2-Tier
StatisticalCCA
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CHFP2 development
• 2006 Funding from Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS)
• 2007-2008 CHFP1 pilot project (existing AR4 model, simple SST nudging initialization)
• 2008-2009 Model development leading to CanCM3/4,
CHFP2 initialization development
• 2009-2010 CHFP2 hindcast production
• 2011 CHFP2 operational implementation
CHFP2 = “Coupled Historical Forecasting Project, phase 2”
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CHFP2 Models
CanAM3 Atmospheric model - T63/L31 (2.8 spectral grid) - Deep convection scheme of Zhang & McFarlane (1995) - No shallow conv scheme - Also called AGCM3
CanAM4 Atmospheric model - T63/L35 (2.8 spectral grid) - Deep conv as in CanCM3 - Shallow conv as per von Salzen & McFarlane (2002) - Improved radiation, aerosols
CanOM4 Ocean model - 1.410.94L40 - GM stirring, aniso visc - KPP+tidal mixing - Subsurface solar heating climatological chlorophyll
SST bias vs OISST 1982-2009
C C
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HadISST 1970-99
*
Monthly SSTA standard deviation
CGCM3.1 IPCC AR4, CHFP1
CanCM3 CHFP2 CHFP2CanCM4
ENSO variability in models
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CHFP2 hindcast initialization
Forecast
SST nudging (OISST)Sea ice nudging (HadISST)
AGCM assim (ERA)
3D ocean T, S assimilation(GODAS)
1 Sep1 Aug1 Jul1 Jun 1 Oct1 May
multiple assimilation runs
Forecast 1 12 mos
Forecast 2 12 mos
Forecast 10 12 mos…
IC1
IC2
IC10
…
+ Anthropogenic forcing
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Forecast
SST nudging (CMC)Sea ice nudging (CMC)
AGCM assim (CMC)
1 Sep1 Aug1 Jul1 Jun 1 Oct1 May
Forecast 1 12 mos
Forecast 2 12 mos
Forecast 10 12 mos…
IC1
IC2
IC10
…
+ Anthropogenic forcing
CHFP2 operational initialization
multiple assimilation runs
3D ocean T, S assimilationGODAS daily
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Benefits of coupled atmospheric assimilation: Improved land initialization
SST nudging only
Soil temperature(top layer)
Soil moisture(top layer)
Correlation of assimilation run vs offline analysis
SST nudging + atmospheric assim
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Benefits of coupled atmospheric assimilation: Improved ocean initialization
Correlations vs obs in equatorial Pacific (5S5N)
zonal wind stressthermocline depthzonal surface currentsea surface temp
SST nudging + atmos assim SST nudging only
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Niño3.4 hindcasts initialized monthly from 1 Jan 1997 to 1 Dec 1997
1997 1998 1997 1998
ENSO SkillCase Study: 1997-98 El Niño
OBS
CanCM3
CanCM4
CHFP2 =CanCM3+4
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Nino3.4 Anomaly Correlation Skill
Ensemble ForecastsInitialization
1 June 1979-2008ERSST/OISST verification
CanCM3CanCM4CanCM3+4Persistence
Damped persistence}
-1 AC 1
=1 perfect fcst=0 clim fcst
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Nino3.4 Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS)
Ensemble ForecastsInitialization
1 June 1979-2008ERSST/OISST verification
CanCM3CanCM4CanCM3+4Persistence
Damped persistence}
- MSSS 1
=1 perfect fcst=0 clim fcst
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Nino3.4: all forecasts, leads 0-6 1979-2005
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Anomaly Correlation MSSS
Me
an
Sk
ill
ECMWF
IFM
Meteo-France
UKMO/HadGEM2
INGV
UKMO/DePreSys
CCCma/CanCM3
CCCma/CanCM4
CCCma/CHFP2
Comparison with EU ENSEMBLES
Comparison of individual model forecasts (ENSEMBLES forecasts use ensemble size 9, CCCma ensemble size 10), with CHFP2 skills shown for comparison
CanCM4
CanCM3
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CHFP2 vs
CFSv2
CHFP2 vs
CFSv1
Comparison with NCEP CFS
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Anomaly correlation 2-tier vs CHFP2
2-tier
CHFP2
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Anomaly correlation 2-tier vs CHFP2
Mean Seasonal Global 2m Temp Anomaly Correlation Lead 0 All Forecasts 1979-2001 ERA Verification
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Global Land Ocean
Ano
mal
y C
orre
latio
n
CanCM3
CanCM4
CHFP2
HFP2/MM4Cu
rren
t s
ys
tem
Cu
rren
t s
ys
tem
Cu
rren
t s
ys
tem
Ne
w
sy
ste
m
Ne
w
sy
ste
m
Ne
w
sy
ste
m
Global Land Ocean
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CHFP2 sea ice predictionsAnomaly correlation, Sep mean ice concentration
CanCM3 CanCM4
Forecasts initializedEnd of July
Forecasts initializedEnd of June
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Probability forecast interface
3-category Probabilistic Forecastyear=2010 JFM 0-month lead
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Probability forecast interface
3-category Probabilistic Forecastyear=2010 JFM 0-month lead
Local Probability ForecastLat=53.6N Lon=62.8W
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Probability forecast verification
3-category Probabilistic Forecastyear=2010 JFM 0-month lead
Observed Temperature Percentileyear=2010 JFM
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• Competitive ENSO skill achieved with limited resources, low-tech ocean assimilation
Conclusions
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• Competitive ENSO skill achieved with limited resources, low-tech ocean assimilation
• CHFP2 to replace 2-tier + statistical system December 1
Conclusions
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• Competitive ENSO skill achieved with limited resources, low-tech ocean assimilation
• CHFP2 to replace 2-tier + statistical system December 1
• Watch out for La Nina!
Conclusions
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New CMC
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html