T u k e y g o o d n e s s o f f i t p l o t o f r e a l a n d s i m u l a t e d c a p t u r e h i s t o r i e sTukey goodness of fit from simulated capture histories

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1 0

1 1

1 2

1 3

1 4

1 5

1 6

1 7

1 8

T u k e y g o o d n e s s o f f i t f r o m a c t u a l c a p t u r e h i s t o r i e s

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8

C h i - s q u a r e g o o d n e s s o f f i t p l o t o f r e a l a n d s i m u l a t e d c a p t u r e h i s t o r i e sChi-square goodness of fit from simulated capture histories

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

7 0 0

C h i - s q u a r e g o o d n e s s o f f i t f r o m a c t u a l c a p t u r e h i s t o r i e s

0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0

C h i - s q u a r e g o o d n e s s o f f i t p l o t o f r e a l a n d s i m u l a t e d c a p t u r e h i s t o r i e sChi-square goodness of fit from simulated capture histories

1 0

1 0 0

1 0 0 0

C h i - s q u a r e g o o d n e s s o f f i t f r o m a c t u a l c a p t u r e h i s t o r i e s

1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0

G o o d n e s s o f f i t p l o t b a s e d o n r e a l a n d s i m u l a t e d d e v i a n c e sDeviance from simulated datasets

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

D e v i a n c e f r o m a c t u a l h i s t o r i e s

1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0

S t a n d a r d i z e d m e a n r e s i d u a l s c o n d i t i o n a l u p o n b e i n g o b s e r v a b l eStandardized residual (o-e)/sqrt(e)

- 2

- 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

l o g 1 0 ( E x p e c t e d c o u n t f o r h i s t o r i e s a v e r a g e d o v e r G i b b s s t e p s )

- 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

* 2 1 2

B o x p l o t s o f S t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s c o n d i t i o n a l u p o n b e i n g o b s e r v a b l eStandardized residual (o-e)/sqrt(e)

- 4

- 3

- 2

- 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

l o g 1 0 ( E x p e c t e d c o u n t f o r h i s t o r i e s a v e r a g e d o v e r G i b b s s t e p s )

- 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

S t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s b a s e d o n f u l l c a p t u r e h i s t o r y a r r a y

t y p e 2 3

Standardized residual (o-e)/sqrt(e)

- 2

- 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

l o g ( E x p e c t e d c o u n t f o r h i s t o r i e s a v e r a g e d o v e r G i b b s s t e p s )

- 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

S t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s b a s e d o n f u l l c a p t u r e h i s t o r y a r r a y - r e s t r i c t e d r a n g e o n Y a x i s

t y p e 2 3

Standardized residual (o-e)/sqrt(e)

- 5

- 4

- 3

- 2

- 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

l o g ( E x p e c t e d c o u n t f o r h i s t o r i e s a v e r a g e d o v e r G i b b s s t e p s )

- 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

4 . 2 2 8 2 3 0 8 0 5 4

t r a c e p l o t s o f g i b b s s t e p sp a r m _ t y p e = B i r t h Y r

p i m 1 2 3 4 5 6

e s t i m a t e

0 . 1

0 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

0 . 9

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

t r a c e p l o t s o f g i b b s s t e p sp a r m _ t y p e = B i r t h s

p i m 1 2

e s t i m a t e

0 . 0

0 . 1

0 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

0 . 9

1 . 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

t r a c e p l o t s o f g i b b s s t e p sp a r m _ t y p e = N s i

p i m 1 . 0 0 1 . 0 1 1 . 0 2 2 . 0 0 2 . 0 12 . 0 2 3 . 0 0 3 . 0 1 3 . 0 2

e s t i m a t e

1 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0 0

1 3 0 0 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0 0 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

t r a c e p l o t s o f g i b b s s t e p sp a r m _ t y p e = P c

p i m 1 2 3 4 5 6

e s t i m a t e

0 . 0 0

0 . 0 1

0 . 0 2

0 . 0 3

0 . 0 4

0 . 0 5

0 . 0 6

0 . 0 7

0 . 0 8

0 . 0 9

0 . 1 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

t r a c e p l o t s o f g i b b s s t e p sp a r m _ t y p e = P h i

p i m 1 2 3 4

e s t i m a t e

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

0 . 9

1 . 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

t r a c e p l o t s o f g i b b s s t e p sp a r m _ t y p e = P l o s s

p i m 1 2 3 4 1 1 1 2

e s t i m a t e

0 . 0

0 . 1

0 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

0 . 9

1 . 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

t r a c e p l o t s o f g i b b s s t e p sp a r m _ t y p e = P o p S i z e

p i m 1

e s t i m a t e

8 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 0 0 0 0 0

1 3 0 0 0 0 0

1 4 0 0 0 0 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

t r a c e p l o t s o f g i b b s s t e p sp a r m _ t y p e = P s i

p i m 1 2 3 4

e s t i m a t e

0 . 0

0 . 1

0 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

0 . 9

1 . 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = B i r t h Y r

p i m 1 2 3 4 5 6

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = B i r t h s

p i m 1 2

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 0

0 . 1

0 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

0 . 9

1 . 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O C _ c h i _ p

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 0 0

0 . 0 1

0 . 0 2

0 . 0 3

0 . 0 4

0 . 0 5

0 . 0 6

0 . 0 7

0 . 0 8

0 . 0 9

0 . 1 0

0 . 1 1

0 . 1 2

0 . 1 3

0 . 1 4

0 . 1 5

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O C _ c h i _ r e a l

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

5 0

5 1

5 2

5 3

5 4

5 5

5 6

5 7

5 8

5 9

6 0

6 1

6 2

6 3

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O C _ c h i _ s i m

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

2 7

2 8

2 9

3 0

3 1

3 2

3 3

3 4

3 5

3 6

3 7

3 8

3 9

4 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O D _ d e v _ p

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 0 0

0 . 0 1

0 . 0 2

0 . 0 3

0 . 0 4

0 . 0 5

0 . 0 6

0 . 0 7

0 . 0 8

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O D _ d e v _ r e a l

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O D _ d e v _ s i m

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

2 7

2 8

2 9

3 0

3 1

3 2

3 3

3 4

3 5

3 6

3 7

3 8

3 9

4 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O T _ t u k e y _ p

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 0 0

0 . 0 1

0 . 0 2

0 . 0 3

0 . 0 4

0 . 0 5

0 . 0 6

0 . 0 7

0 . 0 8

0 . 0 9

0 . 1 0

0 . 1 1

0 . 1 2

0 . 1 3

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O T _ t u k e y _ r e a l

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

1 0

1 1

1 2

1 3

1 4

1 5

1 6

1 7

1 8

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = G O T _ t u k e y _ s i m

p i m 0

m a _ e s t i m a t e

7

8

9

1 0

1 1

1 2

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = N s i

p i m 1 . 0 0 1 . 0 1 1 . 0 2 2 . 0 0 2 . 0 12 . 0 2 3 . 0 0 3 . 0 1 3 . 0 2

m a _ e s t i m a t e

2 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 0 0 0 0 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = P c

p i m 1 2 3 4 5 6

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 0 0

0 . 0 1

0 . 0 2

0 . 0 3

0 . 0 4

0 . 0 5

0 . 0 6

0 . 0 7

0 . 0 8

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = P h i

p i m 1 2 3 4

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 5 10 . 5 20 . 5 30 . 5 40 . 5 50 . 5 60 . 5 70 . 5 80 . 5 90 . 6 00 . 6 10 . 6 20 . 6 30 . 6 40 . 6 50 . 6 60 . 6 70 . 6 80 . 6 90 . 7 00 . 7 10 . 7 20 . 7 30 . 7 40 . 7 50 . 7 60 . 7 70 . 7 80 . 7 90 . 8 00 . 8 10 . 8 20 . 8 30 . 8 40 . 8 50 . 8 60 . 8 70 . 8 80 . 8 90 . 9 00 . 9 10 . 9 20 . 9 3

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = P l o s s

p i m 1 2 3 4 1 1 1 2

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 0

0 . 1

0 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

0 . 9

1 . 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = P o p S i z e

p i m 1

m a _ e s t i m a t e

9 2 0 0 0 0

9 3 0 0 0 0

9 4 0 0 0 0

9 5 0 0 0 0

9 6 0 0 0 0

9 7 0 0 0 0

9 8 0 0 0 0

9 9 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 1 0 0 0 0

1 0 2 0 0 0 0

1 0 3 0 0 0 0

1 0 4 0 0 0 0

1 0 5 0 0 0 0

1 0 6 0 0 0 0

1 0 7 0 0 0 0

1 0 8 0 0 0 0

1 0 9 0 0 0 0

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

c u m u l a t i v e a v e r a g e o f t r a c e p l o tp a r m _ t y p e = P s i

p i m 1 2 3 4

m a _ e s t i m a t e

0 . 2

0 . 3

0 . 4

0 . 5

0 . 6

0 . 7

0 . 8

g i b b s _ s a m p l e

1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0