chicago bridge & iron (cbi) earnings report: q1 2016 ... · cb&i has nearly 4,000 employees in the...
TRANSCRIPT
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
EventDescription:Q12016EarningsCallMarketCapasofEventDate:3.73BPriceasofEventDate:36.37
©2014TheStreet,Inc.Al l R ightsReserved Page1of23
ChicagoBridge&Iron(CBI)EarningsReport:Q12016ConferenceCallTranscriptThefollowingChicagoBridge&IronconferencecalltookplaceonApril20,2016,05:00PMET.Thisisatranscriptofthatearningscall:
CompanyPart icipants
ScottLamb;ChicagoBridge&IronCompanyNV;VPofIRPhilAsherman;ChicagoBridge&IronCompanyNV;PresidentandCEOMikeTaff;ChicagoBridge&IronCompanyNV;EVPandCFO
OtherPart icipants
StevenFisher;UBS;AnalystAndrewKaplowitz;Citigroup;AnalystJohnRogers;D.A.Davidson&Co;AnalystMichaelDudas;Sterne,Agee&Leach,Inc;AnalystJamieCook;CreditSuisse;AnalystJeffVolshteyn;JPMorgan;AnalystAndyWhitman;RobertW.Baird&Co;AnalystJerryRevich;GoldmanSachs;Analyst
MANAGEMENTDISCUSSIONSECTION
Operator :
WelcometotheCB&Ifirst-quarterearningsconferencecall.
Asareminder,thisconferenceisbeingrecorded.
Itisnowmypleasuretointroduceyourhost,Mr.ScottLamb,VicePresidentInvestorRelationsforCB&I.Thankyou.Mr.Lamb,youmaybegin.
Scott Lamb(VPofIR):
Thankyou,Operator.Goodafternoon,everyone.WelcometotheCB&Ifirst-quarterearningscall.Thankyouforjoiningustoday.
Thisafternoon,youwillhearfromPhilAsherman,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,andMikeTaff,ExecutiveVPandChiefFinancialOfficer.PhilandMikewilloffercommentaryontheresultsforthequarter,andthenwe'llopenupthelineforyourquestions.
Beforebeginningtoday'scall,theCompanywouldliketocautionyouregardingforward-lookingstatements.Anystatementsmadeordiscussedtodaythatdonotconstituteorarenothistoricalfacts,particularly,commentsregardingtheCompany'sfutureplansandexpectedperformance,areforward-lookingstatementsthatarebasedonassumptionsthecompanybelievesarereasonablebutaresubjecttoarangeofuncertaintiesandrisksthataresummarizedintheCompany'spressreleaseandourSECfilings.
Whileforward-lookingstatementsrepresentManagement'sbestcurrentjudgmentastowhatmayoccur
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
EventDescription:Q12016EarningsCallMarketCapasofEventDate:3.73BPriceasofEventDate:36.37
©2014TheStreet,Inc.Al l R ightsReserved Page2of23
inthefuture,theactualoutcomeorresultsmaydiffermateriallyfromwhatisexpressedorimpliedinanysuchstatements.
IwillnowturnthecallovertoPhil.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Thankyou,Scott.Goodafternoon,andthankyouforjoiningusaswereportChicagoBridge&Iron'sresultsforthefirstquarterof2016.
First,welcometoScottLambasournewHeadofInvestorRelations.ManyofyouknowhimfromhisyearswithFosterWheeler,andmorerecently,CameronInternational.ScottisaseasonedIRprofessional,andisagreatadditiontotheteam.
IalsowanttothankJaimeCoryellforhistremendouscontributiontothisroleandcongratulatehiminassuminganotherpositionwithinourcorporatestrategicplanninggroup.
First,letmeconveyourthoughtsandprayerstoourofourneighborsintheHoustonareathatsufferedthroughthesepastfewdaysofstormsandflooding.CB&Ihasnearly4,000employeesintheareaonprojects,intechnologylabs,fabricationplants,warehousesandoffices.
I'mrelievedtoadviseyouthatwehavenoreportsofanysignificantimpacttoouremployees,otherthansomecasesofbeingunabletogettowork.Secondly,ourmajorprojectsalongtheGulfCoastoranyofouroperationsintheHoustonareaexperiencedminimaldisruptionordamageduetoflooding.Weare,ofcourse,monitoringthesituationbutbelievetheworstisbehindus.
Nowasyouknow,Ibegineverycallwithacommentaboutsafety.Andweareveryproudofmaintainingourpositionasoneofthesafestcompaniesintheworld.Wehavethelowestlosttimeincidentrateintheindustry.
17ofoursitesarewithoutalosttimeaccident.26ofoursiteshaveworkedover1millionmanhourswithoutaninjury,and50siteshaveovera0.25millionmanhourswithoutarecordableinjury.Butasimpressiveasthisrecordis,wearenotinfallible.
Lastmonth,weexperiencedthreeseriousincidentsatdifferentsiteswithdifferentcircumstances,andwheredifferentworkwasbeingdone.Butwhattheyhadincommonwasthateachoftheincidentsinvolvedfairlyroutinetasksthatendedtragically,becauseofsomedecisionorjudgmentthatresultedinfatalitiesthatshouldnothavehappened.Althoughwe'verecordednearly650millionman-hourswithoutafatality,thisisatragicreminderthattheworkwedorequiresconstantvigilanceandattentionineveryproject,lab,shop,andofficeeverydayaroundtheworld.
SoabriefcommentonourfinancialperformancewhichMikewilldiscussinaminute.Goodnewsonoperatingcashflow,whichwas$142millionor1.3timesournetincomeforthequarter.Includingthecashflowsfromourunconsolidatedequityjointventureprojects,whichareessentiallyadvancedpaymentstofinanceouroperationalactivities,thisamounttotaled$257millionor2.4timesournetincomeforthequarter.
Ourconsolidatedfinancialperformanceforthefirstquarterresultedinincomefromoperationsof$188million,revenueof$2.7billionandnetincomeof$107millionor$1.01perdilutedshare.Earningswerelessthanexpectedduetounderperformanceinourfabricationservicesgroup,whichwasoverbudgetontwounrelatedprojectsthatcompletedinthefirstquarter,andbothchargesarenon-recurring.TheimpactonEPSfortheseprojectswasapproximately$0.18perdilutedshare.
Yeartodate,wehavealreadyseenimprovementinnewawardbookingsearlyinthesecondquarter
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
EventDescription:Q12016EarningsCallMarketCapasofEventDate:3.73BPriceasofEventDate:36.37
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counteringwhatisatacontinuingdelayandfinalcapitaldecisioninmostofourmarkets.Wearenotseeingcancellations,butthecontinuingweaknessincommoditypricesisdelayingcommitments.Giventheoverallmarketdynamics,wearetakingthemostconservativepositionintermsofwhatwesee--whatwetakeinthebacklogasanewreward.
Thisdelayhasbeenfeltthisquarterinournewawardsexpectations,andmorespecificallyinourpreviousoutlookonCameronLNGtrain4.AlthoughwehaveanagreementinprinciplefortheEPC,wefeltitwasprudenttodefertakingthis$1billioncontractintobackloguntiltheownersmoveclosertotheFID.
WearetakingthesamepositiononAnadarko'sMozambiqueLNG,whichwehadexpectedtobookthisfirsthalfoftheyear.Buthavingsaidthat,neitherprojectsubstantiallyimpactsour2016outlookforrevenue,earningsorcashflow.
OthernewawardsforthefirstquarterincludescopeincreasesonanLNGmechanicalerectionandinstrumentationprojectinAustralia,refinerymaintenanceworkintheUnitedStatesandCanada,crudeoilstorageintheMiddleEastandCanada.PetrochemicallicensingintheAsia-PacificregionandChina,catalystawardsintheMiddleEast,environmentalremediationworkfortheUSNavy,andavarietyoftechnologyandfabricationawardsglobally.
NowIwillbrieflydiscusshighlightsfromouroperatinggroupsfromthequarterandprovidesomeperspectivesonouroutlook.ForengineeringconstructionintheUS,wehaveanumberoflargeprojectscurrentlyunderconstruction,includingourLNGexportterminalsforCameronandFreeportLNG,andourpetrochemicalplantsforOxyChem,Shintechand(Exelatte).Wealsohavethreecombinedcyclepowerplantscurrentlyunderconstruction.
ThebacklogdistributionofourengineeringconstructionbusinessintheUSisabout78%,andconcentratedinthethreeendmarketsIjustmentioned.Forengineeringconstruction,LNGisnearly50%,petrochemicals30%withtheremainderdistributedbetweenpowerrefiningandunderpinningwork.
Orpic,thelargemulti-billiondollarpetrochemicalprojectinOmanthatwebookedlastquarter,combinedwiththeanticipatedLNGworkinEastAfricaaswellassteelplatestructures,pipefabricationandtechnology,shouldincreaseourinternationalworkoverthenexttwotothreeyears,returningouroverallportfoliotoamorebalancedgeographicdistribution.
Currently,marketsinAsiaPacific,SouthAmericaandCanadaremainopportunistic,withmuchsubstantialactivitywhilewewaitforimprovedstabilityincommodityprices.ThecleanfieldsprojectinKuwaitisoverthehalfwaymarketinphysicalprogress,andinAustraliatrain1atGorgonLNGissubstantiallycomplete,withourmechanicalelectricalsubcontractandpipingsupplycontractforWheatstoneLNGwelloverhalfcompleteaswell.
NowouroutlookforE&C,ourexpected2016awardsrepresentapproximately60%ofouranticipatedtotalfortheCompanyfortheyear.Themixoftheseawardsiscomprisedofapproximately50%to60%LNG,20%to30%refiningandpetrochemical,andtheremainderdistributedbetweenpower,gasprocessing,refiningandunderpinningwork.
Turningtofabricationservices,ourabilitytoin-sourcemajorcomponentsofourlargeprojectscombinedwithasolidreputationinmarketshareforheatexchangers,tanksandfabricatedpipingisacriticalpartofourvaluepropositiontoourcustomers.Italsoprovidesstrongmarginopportunitiesandsteadycashgenerationforourshareholders.Aswecontinuallyimproveefficiencies,consolidatefabricationcapacityandleverageafairlystablesupplymarket,weexpecttoseelong-termgrowthinmarginexpansion.
Thisfirstquarter,however,wehaveseensubstantialheadwindsfromnewprojectdeferralsinthesteel
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
EventDescription:Q12016EarningsCallMarketCapasofEventDate:3.73BPriceasofEventDate:36.37
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platestructurebusiness.Plus,asImentioned,underperformanceontwoprojectsthatdilutedtheearningsoftheoperatinggroupthisquarter.
Butgiventhefairlyquickbook-and-burnattributeofthisgroup,thehighwinratiosofitsunit'ssteelplatestructures,fabandmanufacturingandengineeringproductsandexpectedmarginperformance,weseesomegreatopportunitiesalreadydevelopinginthesecondquartertooffsetthisslowstarttotheyearandachievethefabricationservicesoperatingplan.
Opportunitiesforfabricationservicesareconcentratedincapitalinvestmentsandnaturalgasliquids,petrochemicals,terminals,LNGandpowerworkinNorthAmericaandtheMiddleEast.Particularly,inSaudiArabiaandKuwait.InothergeographiessuchasWesternandEasternAfricaandCentralandSouthAmerica,wearepursuingselectiveopportunities.
Movingtotechnology.Duringthequarter,thecatalystplantwherewe'repartneredwithClariantisprogressingasplanned,andisprojectedtoreachmechanicalcompletioninJunewithproductiontostartinOctober.Alsoaswe'vepreviouslyannounced,webrokegroundinMarchonthenetpowerdemonstrationplantwithourpartnersExelonand8RiversCapital,andexpectcompletionearlynextyearwithcommercialoperationscheduledformid-2017.
Wearealsopursuinganumberofinitiativesthatcontinuetoprovidenewopportunitiesfortechnologylicensing,catalystsandanadditionalpullthroughforbroaderCB&Iofferings.Prospectivepetrochemicalopportunitiescontinuetobepositive.
Althoughthegapbetweenethaneandnaphthacrackershasnarrowed,theUScontinuestobethepreferredlocationforethanecrackerswhiletheMiddleEastandAsiafocusonliquidcrackers.Refiningmarketsfortechnologyareexperiencingactivitytiedtogasolinedemand,growth,drivingdemandforalcoholateblends,amovetowardsproductionofcleanerfuelsandlowercrudepricesencouragingthesurgeforoil-relatedprojectsandproducts.
Capitalservices,duringthequarter,weperformedseveralnuclearoutagesandcompletedanumberofturnaroundsatvariouslocationsinNorthAmerica.ThegroupalsocontinuestocollaboratewithourotheroperatinggroupstoenhancetheOrganization'soverallcompetitivepositioning.OpportunitiesforcapitalservicesremainprimarilyinNorthAmerica,andconcentratedinpowerandindustrialmaintenance,environmentalandsustainabilityworkandselectiveopportunitiesforfederalservices.
Importantly,capitalservicesissupportedbyagoodtrackrecordofperformanceinthenuclearoperationsandmaintenancemarket,withgoodprospectsonthefossilandnuclearpowermaintenancebusiness,emergencyreliefwork,opportunitiesinselectivestatesandindustrialservices.Federalgovernmentspendingtrendscontinuetopresentchallengesforthisoperatinggroupinthenearterm.
Insummary,we'repleasedtoseethestrongoperatingcashperformance.Andaswe'vepreviouslydiscussed,wehaveverygoodvisibilityinto2016withover75%ofourprojectedrevenuecurrentlyinbacklog.Andwehaveeveryexpectationthatwithsustainedmarginsandastrongbacklog,weremainconfidentinourabilitytoachieveour2016guidanceof$11.4billionto$12.2billioninrevenueandourEPSrangefortheyearof$5to$5.50.
Withthat,letmeturnitovertoMikewhowillreportthefinancialsforthefirstquarter.Mike?
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Thanks,Phil.Goodafternoon,everyone.
Philgaveyouagoodheadlinesummaryofoursolidoperatingresultsforthequarter.
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
EventDescription:Q12016EarningsCallMarketCapasofEventDate:3.73BPriceasofEventDate:36.37
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Withearningspershareof$1.01,asignificantincreaseinoperatingcashflow,sequentialquarterreductionintotaldebt,andahealthybacklog.TheresultsalsoreflectedadeclineinSG&Aexpense,andaneffectivetaxratethatisbothcompetitiveandsustainable.
IÕllnowwalkyouthroughsomeadditionaldetails.First,letmeofferaquickhousekeepingnotebeforeIbeginmydiscussionofourQ1performance.
Asyouallknow,wecompletedthesaleofournuclearbusinessattheendof2015.And,ofcourse,ourfinancialresultsforthefirstquarterof2016donotincludeanyoperatingresultsfromthatnowdivestedbusiness.Youwillhavenoticedthatourpressreleaseincludestablesthatshow2015keymetricsonaproformabasis,excludingthenuclearoperations.
Inmyremarkstoday,Iwillrefertooperatingresultsfor2015.Iwill,infact,bereferringtothoseproformanumbers.WethinkthisisthemostmeaningfulwaytoevaluateourQ12016performance,becauseitreallygivesyouanapples-to-applescomparison.
Now,withthisinmind,let'sstartwithalookatthetoplineforCB&I.OurQ1consolidatedrevenuewas$2.7billion,roughlyflatascomparedtotheyear-agoquarterasa14%increaseinE&Crevenuewasoffsetbyrevenuedeclinesinfabricationservicesandourtechnologygroup.
Grossmarginwas10.8%ofrevenue.Thedeclininggrossmarginyearoveryearisaresultoflowerrevenuevolumeinthefabricationservicesandtechnologygroups,aswellasreducedoperatingleverageandanoveralllowermarginmix.
Forthequarter,sellingandadministrativeexpensewas$93millionor3.5%ofrevenueversus$106millionintheyear-agoquarter.TheimprovementinSG&Aisdueinparttolowerincentivecompensationcostsinthefirstquarterof2016.Operatingincomewas$188millionor7%ofrevenue,versus$201millionor7.6%ofrevenuesduringthefirstquarterof2015.ThedeclineinoperatingincomedollarsandmarginreflectsthefactorsIjustmentioned.
AsIstatedpreviously,dilutedearningspersharewere$1.01forthefirstquarterof2016,a5%increasefromthe$0.96fortheyear-agoquarter.EPSincreasedyearoveryear,despitethelowerlevelsofgrossprofit,dueinparttocontrollingSG&Aexpense,aslightdeclineintheeffectivetaxrateto27%versusnearly29%intheyear-agoquarter,andamodestreductioninthenumberoffullydilutedsharesoutstanding.AsPhilhighlightedpreviously,newawardsforthefirstquarterof2016totaled$1.2billion,downfromthe$3billionfortheyear-agoquarter.
Asyouallknow,thequarterlypatternofnewawardscanbelumpyoverthecourseofanygivenyear.Havingsaidthat,wecontinuetohaveconfidencethatorderswillreboundastheyearprogresses.Ourconfidenceinthatregardisbasedonthesheervolumeandqualityofourprospectlist.
Nowlet'sreviewtheoperatinggroupresultsfortheyear.Andagain,pleaserememberthatwhenIreferto2015results,Iamcitingtheproformanumbersthatexcludethenuclearoperations.
Newawardsforengineeringconstructionwere$323millionforthequarter,ascomparedto$1.2billionintheyear-agoperiod.E&Crevenueforthefirstquarterwas$1.5billion,up14%ascomparedtotheyear-agoquarter,duemainlytoincreasedactivityinourLNGexportfacilities.
Forthefirstquarterof2016,E&Coperatingincomeincreased23%to$112millionor7.4%ofrevenues,from$91millionor6.8%ofrevenuesforthecomparableperiodin2015.Theimprovementinoperatingincomeandmarginwasattributabletohighervolumeandsolidexecution.
Ourfabricationservicesgroupgeneratednewawardsof$374millionforthefirstquarterof2016,downfromtheyear-agoperiod.Revenuesinthefirstquarterof2016cameinat$518million,representinga
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
EventDescription:Q12016EarningsCallMarketCapasofEventDate:3.73BPriceasofEventDate:36.37
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declineversustheyear-agoquarter.Thedeclinewasduetothewind-downofvariousstoragetankprojects.
Operatingincomeforfabricationservicesinthefirstquarterof2016totaled$38millionor7.4%ofrevenue,comparedto$52millionor8.2%ofrevenuesinthefirstquarterof2015.Thesofterresultsarereflectiveoflowerrevenuevolume,andtheunfavorableimpactoftwoprojectchargestotaling$26million.Thechargeswerepartlybutnotfullyoffsetbysavingsonvariousotherprojects.Theimportantparthereisthatthejobsarenowessentiallycompleted,andwewouldexpectfabricationservicesmarginstoimproveintheremainingquartersoftheyear.
Ourtechnologygroupreportednewawardsforthefirstquarterof2016of$84million,ascomparedto$7millionintheyear-agoperiod.Revenueforthetechnologygroupinthefirstquarterof2016declinedto$65million,ascomparedto$99millioninthecomparableperiodin2015.
Thedeclineinrevenuereflectedlowercatalystvolumeandthetimingofnewawards.Weexpectquarterlyrevenuestoimproveinthissegmentoverthecourseof2016.
Operatingincomeforthetechnologygroupinthefirstquarterof2016was$26millionor41%ofrevenues,comparedto$48millionor48%ofrevenueintheyear-agoquarter.Thedeclineisdueprimarilytolowervolume,althoughbearinmindthattheyear-agoquarteralsoincludedaone-timegainof$8million.
Lastly,ourcapitalservicesgroupgeneratednewawardsof$417millioninthefirstquarterof2016,downby$400millionascomparedtotheyear-agoquarter.Revenueforthequarterwasrelativelyunchangedversusayearagoatabout$569million,aslowerindustrialmaintenancerevenuewasoffsetbyhigherUSpowermaintenancerevenue.
Operatingincomeforcapitalservicesinthefirstquarterof2016was$11millionor2%ofrevenues,amodestimprovementascomparedto$10millionor1.9%ofrevenueintheyear-agoperiod.
Now,let'sturntothebalancesheet,cashflowandliquidity.Operatingcashflowinthefirstquarterof2016amountedto$257million,whichrepresentsadramaticimprovementfromtheyear-agoperiod.Ifyoudoacomparisontotheyear-agoperiodonareportedbasis,thepositiveswingincashflowis$547million.Ifyoudoacomparisononaproformabasis,excludingthenuclearbusinessfromayearago,theswingisstillimpressiveat$243million.
Now,Ineedtopauseheretotalkaboutthegeographyofthecashflowstatementforjustaminute.Asmostofyouknow,advancepaymentsthatcometousinconnectionwithprojectsexecutedthroughunconsolidatedequitymethodjointventuresappearintheStatementofCashFlowsinfinancingactivities.
Inrecentreportingperiods,theseadvancedpaymentswereimmaterial.However,thischangedinQ1becauseoftheadvancedpaymentwereceivedononeofourrecentlargeequitymethodawards.
So,the$257millionIcitedisasumofthe$142millionofoperatingcashflowandthe$115millionofadvancepaymentsfortheunconsolidatedequitymethodventure.Onago-forwardbasis,forthesakeoftransparencyandconsistency,wewillcitethedollaramountofsuchadvanceseachquarterwhenevertheyarematerial.AsareminderandaswediscussedinourrecentInvestorDay,weexpectouroperatingcashflowperformancein2016tobeatorabovenetincome.
Atquarterend,ourcashandcashequivalentsbalancewas$641million,whichrepresentsanincreaseofalmost$300millioncomparedtotheyear-agoquarterand$90millioncomparedtoyear-end2015.Ourthree-partcapitalallocationstrategyisunchangedaswereturncapitaltoshareholders,continueto
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
EventDescription:Q12016EarningsCallMarketCapasofEventDate:3.73BPriceasofEventDate:36.37
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makeongoinginvestmentsinthebusinessandsteadilyreduceourtotaldebt.
Forthefirstquarterof2016,wepaid$7millionincommonstockdividends.Wespent$8milliontorepurchaseshares,invested$22millioninourCapExprogram,andreducedourtotaldebtonasequentialquarterlybasisby$120millionorroughly5%.
Finally,Iwouldliketoreaffirmourguidance.Weexpectrevenueintherangeof$11.4billionto$12.2billion,anddilutedearningssharesintherangeof$5to$5.50persharewithaslightbiastowardsthemidpointoftherangeforbothrevenueandEPS.
Asmanyofyouknow,itisquitecommonforCB&I'sfirstquarterresultstobetheweakestofanygivenyear,andwearelikelytoseethatpatternplayoutagainin2016.Wefullyexpectearningstoprogressivelyimproveaswemovethroughtheremainingquartersoftheyear.
Withthat,IwillturnitbackovertoPhil.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Thanks,Mike.Let'sopenthecallforyourquestions.
QUESTIONS&ANSWERS
Operator :
(Operatorinstructions)
StevenFisherwithUBS.
StevenFisher (Analyst-UBS):
Hello,Phil.Youguysdidn'tchangeyourguidancedespitethefabricationissue.So,istheresomethingyouareplanningonfortherestoftheyearthatwilloffsetthat$0.18offabricationdisappointment?Or,asyousaid,youaretrendingtowardthemidpointwhereyouwereexpectingtobeattheupperendbefore?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Yes,aswesaidSteve,thechargesandfabricationofthetwoprojectsarenon-recurring,bothprojectsare100%.Ithinkifthosehadoccurredinadifferentquarterintermsofnormaloffsets,probablywouldnotevenbediscussingitmuch.
Butcertainly,weseethebusinesswillbeabletooffsetthosewiththeearningsthatweseeinfrontofusandthemarginimprovementthatwesee.Sowefullybelievethatourguidanceisintact.
StevenFisher (Analyst-UBS):
Andthesluggishbookingsinthequarterdidnotputyoufurtherbehindintheplanatallfortheyear?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
TherealsluggishbookinginthequarterwasactuallyCameron.Wethoughtthatwemightcomeinat$2.5billionto$3billionmark.Butprimarily,thathadtodoontwofronts.One,somesteelplatesstructuresbusinessesthatitlookliketheyaredeferredtothenextquarter,andwearealreadyseeingareboundfromthat.
ButthebigonewasCameron.AndalthoughwehadcometoanagreementontheEPCcontract,thereis
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
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somecurrentdiscussionswithintheownersgroupthatlooklikeFIDwassliding,sowejustdecidedtotakeamoreconservativeviewonwhenwemightbookthatEPCcontractandwaittillwegetaheadsupfromtheowner.
Soweareconfidentthejobiscertainlybankableandwewillgoforward,andsothere'snothinginherentlywrongwiththeproject.It'sjustgoingtoslidealittlebitfurtherintotheyear.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Steve,asPhilmentionedinhisopeningcomments,wedidn'thaveanythingbookedreallyinourplanfortheyearrelatedtoCameronotherthanabooking.Sowehadn'tlostanyrevenueorcashfloworEPSassociatedwiththatproject.
StevenFisher (Analyst-UBS):
Okay.Sointermsofbookingsfortheyearthen,canyoujustcommentonthepaceofunderpinning?Howdidthatlookinthequarter?Areyoustillthinkingabout$4billionto$5billionfortheyear?
Andthen,Iguessinaggregatewiththewholeyear,whatareyouthinkingaboutnow?Withandwithout,let'ssay,CameronandMozambiquehappening.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Ithinkgenerally,ifMozambiqueandCameronjustdon'tcomethroughthisyearwithEPC,obviouslythatisabouta$3billioncorrectioninournewawardforecast.Underpinning,Ithinkwiththeamountofrevenueandthekindofworkweseeisprettysolidatprobably$4.5billionto$5billionfortheyear,andIthinkthatisprettygood.
Butwehavegotanumberofotherdevelopments.Wehavegotsomegoodpetrochemicalbusinessinfrontofus,andwefeelprettyconfidentthatevenwithoutthosetwobigLNGjobs,weshouldcomeupbetween$10billionand$12billion.
StevenFisher (Analyst-UBS):
Okay.Andthenjustlastly,sothekeythingsthatstillhavetohappentohitthat$11.4billionto$12.2billionofrevenues--basically,you'vegottheother25%ofyourrevenuesandbacklogsinunderpinning,orarethereother(multiplespeakers)--?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
You'reabsolutelyright.75%isinourbacklog,thatmeanswehavegot25%ofworkthat'souttherethatweneedtobookandburn.Ithinkthegoodnewsis,thepetrochemicalworkthatweseeinfrontofus,wearewellpositionedforthat.Andprovidingtimingisonourside,weseemprettygoodwiththat.Butwehavegotrevenueon--wehavegotvisibilityon75%ofthatrevenue,sowe'reprettyconfidentinthat.
Andrememberlastyear,wehadaboutcloseto$1billionofFXimpactonourrevenue.Sowedon'tseethatnecessarilythisyear.Sowehavegotagoodstartonthat.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Yes,Steve,ifyoujustdothemathontherevenue,whichIknowyouguysandallyouguyswilldooverthenextfewdays,fortheremainingthreequarters,Ididthatthisafternoon.Wewouldneedtoaverageabout$3billionaquartertohitourmidpoint.
Lastyear,weaveraged$2.75billion,andasPhilsaid,wealsoaveragedbetween$200millionand$250
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CompanyName:ChicagoBridge&IronCoNVCompanyTicker:CBISector:IndustrialGoodsIndustry:Materials&Construction
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millionalmostperquarterofFX.Andwhatwesawthisquarter,theFXimpact,therewasaslightimpactofFXbutitwasbelow$50millionorso.SothatisagreatimprovementfromanFXstandpoint.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Yes,Ithinktherealswingunitinourbusinessisourfabricationservices.Ithasgottherightcombinationofcertainly,volumeandmargin,andaquickbookandburn.SoIthinkthatisgoingtobethereal--becausetheEPCworkissolidandgooddurablebacklog,butatasfarasourabilitytobookandburnrevenueandearningsinoneyear,certainlythatisgoingtobeimportantthatwemakesurethatunitisperformingwherewethinkitoughtto.
StevenFisher (Analyst-UBS):
Okay.Iwillturnitover.Thanks.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Thanks,Steve.
Operator :
AndrewKaplowitzwithCitigroup.
AndrewKaplowitz (Analyst-Citigroup):
Goodafternoon,guys.Howyoudoing?Welcomeback,Scott.
Sojusttalkingaboutcash.Evenifweexcludetheunconsolidatedadvances,yourcashfromoperationswas1.3timesyournetincomeinthequarter.Andwhatusuallyisaprettyseasonallyweakquarter,andagain,excludingtheunconsolidatedadvances,youreallydidn'thaveanybookingsinthequarter.
Socanyoutalkabout,Mike,Iknowthisisforyou,whyyourcashamountswouldbeatleast1.3timesthenetincomeoverthenextfewquarters?Iknowyouwanttobeconservative,butyouknowIwanttopushyouonit.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Well,thanks,Andy,andIalwaysappreciatethat.No,Ithinkwehavesaidthatbefore.Isthatkindofourbenchmarkis1times.
AndIthinkwhenyou'rebenchmarkis1timeswiththeabilitytogetupinthe1.5,1.8rangeinanygivenyearbasedonthetimingofsomepayments,certainly,thepaymentfromOrpicwasnice.Andactually,aboutIthink$25millionofthatissittinginoperatingcashflowthatwasrelatedtothesubcontractfees,andtheother$115millionwassittinginthefinancesectionofcashflow.
So,yes,certainly,Andy,wedohavethatcapability,andItellyouwhat,wewerepleasedwiththisquarter.Theunitsdidagreatjobofgoingoutandjustdoingsomeofthebasicthingsliketimelybillingandgoodcollectionsandmanagingourpayables.
Andalso,wesawagoodindicationtheDSOheldprettysteady;ourDPOactuallyimprovedforthequarter.Sothingsaregoingintherightdirectionfromthatstandpoint.
AndrewKaplowitz (Analyst-Citigroup):
Okay,Mike,thatishelpful.Still,maybeIcanaskyouaboutfabservices.Obviously,yousaidthesetwoprojectsareonetime,theyarefinished.
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ButIfeellikeoverthelastcoupleyears,wehaveheardaboutmorevolatilityinthisbusiness.Maybetheretendstobetimingissuesaroundunderutilization,sothesethingsgetmagnifiedabit.Butitdoesfeellikethereismorevolatility,maybesinceyouboughtShawbackwhenthisbusinessaroundthisstuff.Somaybecouldyoucommentonthat.Andhowlikelythisbusinessistomaintainthis10%to13%marginthatyouhavetalkedaboutgoingforwardfromhere.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Well,keepinmindthattheprojectsthatwearetalkingaboutwereCB&I'slegacybusiness,andwhichisabusinessthatwerarelyhavethesekindofissues.SoIprobablywouldargueabitabouthistoricalperspectiveonthat.
ButIwilltellyouexactlywhatitwas.WehadoneprojectintheNortheast,whicharguablywasmarginallyprofitable.Butwhentheprojectwascomplete,therewasawarrantyissueonaverylargepre-fabricatedunit,thisisabigunit,anditseparateshydrogenfromLPGontherefineryfuelgas.But,itwasalargeunit.Sothevendorhastheresponsibilityforreplacingtheunitandfixingit,wehavetheresponsibilityforsupportingitwithengineeringandconstructionsources.Sothatcreatedthatovercharge.Soit'snon-recurring,andtheunitisgoingtogoinandwe'llbedone,weareoutofthere.
ThesecondisatankwebuiltinAustraliaandjustcouldnottackletheproductivityofAustralianlaborinthatparticulararea,anditjustgot--sowehadan$11millioncharge.Soinandofitself,thethingsthatnormallywouldbeoffsetinanormalquarterbutgiventhisissucha[thing]quarter,they'requiteapair.
Butnothingsystemicintheoperations.We'vegot1,000contractsin85placesintheworld,andIwouldliketosaythatweareabsolutelyinfallible.Buttheyalwaysconcernus,wealwayslookforthesolutiontomakesurethisdoesnothappenagain.Butthosearethekindofcircumstances.Sothey'renotsomethingthatwhichislingeredanongoing,andwefeelprettyconfidentwecanmakeupthecourseoftheyear.
ButIwillsay,fabricationservicesgenerallyIthinkhaveagreatopportunity.Theiractualmarginsareprettyhealthy,Ithinkwehavewrestledtheutilizationissuesdowninthepipingsideofthebusiness.We'regoingtodosomemoreconsolidation,wehaverestructuredthatandsoasweworkintoourowninternalbacklog,theoutlookforthatisprettygood.
SoIthinkthatwhatwehavebeenexperiencingis8%to9%operatingmargin,MikeandIarestillpushingthattowardsacouplepoints.Andwiththeamountofvolumeweseecangothroughthere,thatislikewhenItoldSteve,thatisthepivotgroup,ifyouwill,ortheswinggroupthatisreallygoingtodeterminewhetherwecanhitourtargetsornotthisyear.
AndrewKaplowitz (Analyst-Citigroup):
Gotit.Still,maybeIcouldjustaskyouaboutthesensitivetopicofsafetyforasecond.Twobigincidentsafteralongperiodofgoodperformance.Iknow,youknow,itdoesn'tmakeyouguysfeelgood.Whatarethelessonslearnedfromtheseissues,andarethereanychangesyou'remakinggoingforward?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Itistragic,andI--weneededtotellyouthatbecauseIalwaystalkaboutsafetyandourprideinoursafetyperformance.Itwas--itisdifficulttoexplainbecauseindifferentpartsoftheworld,differentpartsofdifferentbusinesses--Iguesswhatwascommon,whichImentioned,istheywereroutinetaskswhichbecamedangerous.Thejudgmentaroundandthesituationalawarenessiswhatwedescribeit,justfailedtheindividualsonthoseprojectsandithadtragicconsequences.
Sowehadacorporatesafetystanddown.Wehavecommunicatedwitheveryoneofouremployees.Thisisprobablythemostimportantthingcanourbusiness,tokeepourpeoplesafe.SoIthinkpeoplehave
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confidenceinoursafetyrecord.Certainlytheownersdo.ItwasjustatragicseriesofeventsthatcertainlyisunprecedentedinourCompany;butithappened.
Sowehavecertainlyalloftheimprovementsarearoundtherootcausesofthoseincidents.Butit'slikeakickinthestomachtous,asyoucanimagine.Butwehaveaddressedit,wehavesharedthiswithotherpeopleinourspaceandownerssotheycanlearnfromit,andthatiswhatwedoinbusinessbecauseeverybodyhasthesameinterest.Butthankyouforaskingthatquestion.
AndrewKaplowitz (Analyst-Citigroup):
Okay,thanks,Phil.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Allright.
Operator :
JohnRogerswithD.A.Davidson.
JohnRogers (Analyst-D.A.Davidson&Co):
Hello,goodafternoon.Canyouhearme?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Wecan,John,eventhoughyouareinCalifornia.
JohnRogers (Analyst-D.A.Davidson&Co):
I'mjustwondering,Phil,isCameronandMozambique,itseemsatmoreriskofdelay.Doyoustarttopivotsomeofyourpeopletothinkaboutotheropportunities?Especiallyoutinto2017and2018thatyou'vegottobeworkingonwinningnow?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Yes,we'vegotanumberofdevelopmentLNGsthatwecertainlyhaveteamsworkingonthat.ThereareteamsthatareabsolutelydedicatedtotrainforonCameron,doingthepreliminaryworkaswehaveAnadarkoandMozambique.Thoseactivitiesarefunded,theyareprogressingthepreliminarywork.
Ijustthinkitisimportantjusttobeprudentintermsofalltheinternaldecisionsthathavetobemadebyverycomplicatedowners'groupsandoff-takeagreementsandsoforth.Andjustmakesurethatwedon'tgetaheadofanyofthatwhenweactuallybookworkintoourbacklog,becausewehavealwaystakenaveryconservativeviewonthat.Andwerequirealotofdocumentationanddiligencebeforewetakealargeoutofthebacklog.
SoIthinkjustfromthegeneralenvironmenttoday,whereweareseeingalotofdelayincommitments,wejustthinkwewanttobealittleprudent.There'snothingstructurallywrongwiththejobsorinherentlywrongwiththejobs,we'recontinuingourwork.Itisallfunded.
Butweseethisaroundtheworldthatthingsarejustslowinginsomeareas.Fairlysignificantlyinareasintermsofdelays,andintermsofcommitmentsandfinancialcommitments.Sowejustwanttotalkaboutthatalittlebit.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
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AndJohn,Iwouldpointout,too,thatalso,I'djusthighlight--there'sanumberofotherareasthatwehavegotgreatpossibilitiesinandwearecertainlytracking.Youlookatpetrochemical,weseetwoorthreelargemulti-billiondollarjobscomingtomarketinNorthAmericathisyearthatwethinkwearewell-suitedfor.Several,Iwouldsaythreetofourofthejobswe'vetalkedaboutinthepastonthepowersidethatarethere.
Andwehavealsogotanumberofopportunitiesrelatedtorefinery,bothintheUSaswellastheMiddleEastandRussia.Soit'snotjust--we'veonlygotfolksworkingonsomeofthebigelephantsinLNG,wehavegotourcriticalassetsdeployedinallofthedifferentendmarketsthatweseethatwouldcontributetoourbookingbasefortheyear.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
John,Ithink--andyouknowthisaswellasanybody,Ithinkifyoulookatjusthowwearelayered,remember,sincetheendof2013totheendof2015,we'vebookedover$41billionworthofnewwork,$41billion.Andalotofthathadtodowithlong,durablebacklog,muchofwhichgoesoutto2019andbelow.Thenyouhavegotanotherlayerofpetrochemicalworkwhichcycletimesvarybetweenthreeandfouryearswhichalsocontributedtothat.
Beyondthat,youhavequickbook-and-burncharacteristicsofallourfabricationworkandallofourunderpinningwork.Sowhenyoulookatallofthat,justhowworkflowsthroughourgroup,wefeelprettyconfidentthatwithevensomedelaysonsomeoftheseheadlineprojects,wecertainlyarewellpositionedtodothatandstillcontinuetoreturntheearningsandthecashflows.
JohnRogers (Analyst-D.A.Davidson&Co):
Thankyou.IfIcouldjustonefollow-up,whatareyouexpectingintermsofaninvestmentinnetpowerthisyear?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Mostofourinvestment,Ithinkitwas$43million,wasaCapExinvestment.Ithinkmostofthatwillactuallycomenextyearaswegetclosertogettingintooperations.
SoIthinkrelativetotheinternalreturns,internalrateofreturnsthatweanticipate,Ithinkitwillturnouttobeagoodinvestment.Sothatjobisgoingalongjustfine,andwewillkeepreportingonitbecauseweareprettyexcitedaboutwhatthat'sgoingtodoforus.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
John,whatItalkedaboutatAnalystDaywasthatweexpectedtotalCapEx,andthatistraditionalCapExaswellasourinvestmentinnetpowerandClariant,tobeinthat$140millionto$150range.Andyousawthatbeingabout$22millionthisquarter,with$11millionofthatshowingupincashflowundertheCapExline.Andthenthere'sanother$10million,$11millioninotherrelatedtoClariantthisquarter.
JohnRogers (Analyst-D.A.Davidson&Co):
Okay.Ijustwantedtounderstandhowmuchthatwasimpactingcashflowthisyear.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
No,notthatmuch.
JohnRogers (Analyst-D.A.Davidson&Co):
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Okay,great.Thankyouverymuch.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Allright,John,thanks.
Operator :
MichaelDudaswithSterneAgee.
MichaelDudas (Analyst-Sterne,Agee&Leach,Inc):
Michael,Ithoughtyouwerepartyon.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Partyon,it'sapartyhereonWallStreet.Thanksthough,andwelcomeback,Scott.
Scott Lamb(VPofIR):
It'sgreattobehere.
MichaelDudas (Analyst-Sterne,Agee&Leach,Inc):
Absolutely.Andthefirstquestionis,onMozambique,certainly,thecautionisprobablyguided.Yourthoughtson--isthereanythingdifferentthat'smaybecausingthingstopushtotherightandthanyouwould'vethoughtmaybetwoorthreemonthsago?AndhowdoyouthinkExxon'spotentialinvolvementinthatgasplaycouldimpact--Idon'tknowifitimpactsyourAnadarko,butmaybeforthewholeinvestmentthesisforthatplay?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Yes,gettingtothefirstquestion,Ithinkthereisreallynothingdifferent.Itisjusttakinglongertogetthenumberofcommitmentsandtheagreementsfromthegovernmentandtheoff-takebuyerstoreachagreementonthetermsthattheywant.Soit'sjust--Anadarkoisworkingthose.Wehaveseennoslowdowninourpreliminarywork;it'sfunded.
Soitisjustacautionthat,that'stakinglongerthanwhateverybodyexpected,whichiswehaveseenthisbeforeontheseverylargeLNGdevelopments.Sothathasnotnecessarilychanged.Andyoursecondquestionwas?
MichaelDudas (Analyst-Sterne,Agee&Leach,Inc):
Exxon.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Exxon.WellIthinkit'sgreat.IthinkforExxontocomeinatthispointwheneverybodyisfeelingalittlebitnervousaboutLNGdevelopmentsisaprettygoodendorsementforthatprojectandthequalityofthoseassets.Fromourperspective,wehavehadalong-termrelationshipwithExxon,asdoesChiota.
IthinkweservedthemwellonthePapaNewGuineaplant,whicharguablyisprobablyoneofthebetterLNGdevelopmentsthathavebeendoneinthelastdecade.Sowewouldhopethatasthatworkdevelops,wewouldbewellpositionedtoparticipate.Butfirst,ourfirstobligationistotheworkathandandthatiswithAnadarko.Sowearefocusedonthatandcommittedtothatandwewilljusthavetoseehowthatotherworkdevelops.
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MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Phil,whenyousayitisfairtosaythatfromourdailyinvolvementwithAnadarko,wehaveseenochangeintheircommitmenttothisproject.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Absolutelynot.That'sagoodpoint.Absolutelynot.
MichaelDudas (Analyst-Sterne,Agee&Leach,Inc):
Iappreciatetheanswer.AndforMike,IthinkyoumighthavementionedinoneofyourpreparedmarksorquestionsthattheOrpicpaymentcameinfirstquarter?
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Itdid.
MichaelDudas (Analyst-Sterne,Agee&Leach,Inc):
Okay,terrific.Andarethereanyothermilestoneoranyonesthatarevisibleinthehorizonthatyoucouldhighlightheremaybeforthenextonetotwoquarters?
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
I'dsayoverthenextquarterorso,itismainlyit'sgoingtobejustgoodblockingandtackling.Obviously,there'sgoingtobemilestonepaymentswegetonsomeofthelargeprojectsthatarerampingup,suchastheCameronandFreeportandothers.Butwedoseesomelargebookingsinthebackhalfoftheyearthatcouldhavethat.
Especially,onthepowersideandaswellaspetrochemicalside.SoIthink,weareverypleasedatthestartoftheyear,andwehopefullywefeelthisbodeswelltoaverystrongcashflowyearfortheCompanythatallowsustofocusonourcapitalallocationplanandreturningcapitaltoourshareholders,investinginthebusiness,andreducingourdebt.
MichaelDudas (Analyst-Sterne,Agee&Leach,Inc):
Andwillthatcapitalallocationbemoreoptimisticastheyeargoesthrough?SinceIknowyou'vegottoprobablycatchuponsomeoftheCapExthatyouseeinthenextfewquarters,itcouldbemorejusthowthecashflowhasturnedandhowitplaysthroughtoretiredebtandbuybackstockthisyear?
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Ithinkthatmakessense.
MichaelDudas (Analyst-Sterne,Agee&Leach,Inc):
Terrific.Thanks,gentlemen.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Thanks,Mike.
Operator :
JamieCookwithCreditSuisse.
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PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Hello,Jamie.
JamieCook(Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Hello,goodevening.Acouplequestions.One,Mike,backtothecashflowquestion.
Obviouslycashflowinthefirstquarterwasgoodanywayyoulookatit,buthowcomfortableareyouwithyourabilitytohitthelongertermtargetof1.5timesdebttoEBITDAoverthenext12to18months?Whilethefirstquarterwasgood,itsoundsliketherewassomedelay,youtalkedaboutthedelaysinprojectswhereyou'reprobablycountingonadvancedpayments.Sodoesthathave--areyoulessconfidentinthattarget?
Mysecondquestion,onthetechnologyside,Iappreciatetheone-timethingsyoupointedout.Butmostpeopleviewthatasamoreofrecurringearningsbaseandthedeclinesonrevenueandprofitwerefairlydramatic.
Socanyoutalkabout--Iknowyou'reexpectingtoimprovesequentially,howmuchdidyourecaptureordoyouexpecttorecaptureinthesecondquarter?Andjusthowdowethinkaboutthecadenceofearningsthere,justbecausethat'sviewedasaleadingindicatorfornewwins,newEPCwins?
AndthenIguessmylastquestionisonSG&A.Itwasalittlelighterinthefirstquarter.Iknowyoutalkedaboutstockcomp,buthaveyourexpectationsforSG&Afortheyearchanged?Isitnowlowerversuswhenyouguidedattheanalystday?Thanks.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
SoIwilltakethefirstone,andthenletPhiltalkaboutthetechnologyrevenue.Butno,fromgettingourdebtdowntothat1.5metricthatwetalkedaboutatinvestorday,no,ithasn'tchangedfromthat.We'vesetthatasalong-termtargetof12to18months,soIstillthinkaswegetinto2017andtowardsthemiddleorendof2017that'scertainlystillveryattainable.
Wemadegoodimprovementthisquarter.Someoftheadvancedpaymentsyoureferredto,wewerenotexpectingthoseuntil2017.Andsowhetherthatslipsamonthortwoorthree,notgoingtochangethataswegetintotheendoftheyearonthat.
Soagain,weareverypleasedataalmost$550millionimprovementyearoveryearonaquarterlybasis.Thatcertainlyheadsintherightdirectionandall.Andasweexpectedwiththatdivestiturethatwemadeattheendoftheyear.
Asitrelatestothetechnologyrevenue,IwillletPhiltalkaboutthebusiness.Butwhenyoulookatthataswhole,wecertainlyexpectthatbusinesstogetbacktonearorabovewheretheywereonanannualizedbasisfor2015in2016.Sowedoseesomerampingofthatbusinessaswegettowardstheendoftheyearasitrelatestocatalystsalesaswellasnewtechnology.And,Phil,doyouwanttoshare?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Ithinkifyoulookatjusttheoverallhealthcheckofthebusiness,certainlynewawardswerelessthanweexpected.Ithinkweprobablygotabout85%or90%ofthenewawardsthatweexpected,buttheslowdowninChinaiscertainlymeaningful.Historically,licensingawardsforthatgrouphasbeenabout26%ofthetotalandthathasbeendown,andwehavetalkedaboutit.
Thatcertainlyisonegroupwhichdoeshaveadirectcorrelationtothepressureonoilprices.Butstill,wearestartingtoseethattrendreverseitself.Buttheinterestingthingaboutthatbusiness,certainly,we're
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watchingnewawardsbecausethathasadirectslowdownonlicensingrighttothebottomline.
Butwealsohavecatalystsaleswherewehavehadsomeimprovementinpriorquarters,andcertainlylookingout,ourprojectionforjustouroperatingincomeisprettyclosetowhatweoriginallyplanned.Soifwecangetourlicensingactivitybackuptowhereitshouldbe,weshouldseesomeprettygoodresultsfromthewholegroup.
Ourrevenues,ourbackloginthatgroupiscloseto$1billion,whichisprettystrongforatechnologygroupofthattype.Sowe'reprettyencouragedbyit.Ithinkthatthereissomegreatdevelopmentsinrefining,potentiallyaroundAppalachia,andourpatentsandouralcoholationtechnologyisdoingverywelloutsidetheCompanyeventhoughethanecrackersisstrongintheUS.
ButwealsohavesomeNaphthatechnologywherewearelookingattheliquidsdevelopmentintheMiddleEastandelsewherethatwehaveaplay.SoIthinkouroutlookisconfidentandpositive.
Idon'tthinkthiswillbealong-termissuewithtechnology,butweexpecttoseethemcontributeattheirnormalpace,andcertainlytheirmarginsat,Ithinkaround40%grossmargins,willcontinue.Soitisstillagoodearnerforus,Jamie.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Andthen,Jaime,yourlastquestiononSG&A?
JamieCook(Analyst-CreditSuisse):
(Inour)tax,sorryifImissedthattoo.What'sthenewtaxnumberonSG&A?
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
SoSG&A,Iwouldexpectthat$15millionimprovementthatwesawinthefirstquartertocarryovertowardstheendoftheyear.SoIwouldsaywhatweareexpectingfortheyearisprobablyabout$15millionless.SoyoushouldseeSG&A,asIspokeatanalystday,Isaidit'sgoingtobealittlehigherthanyousawlastyear,wherelastyearwewereat3.0%.
SoIthinkitwillbeinthe3.2%,3.3%rangefortheyear,andourtaxratefortheyearisunchanged.AsIsaidatanalystday,Iexpectthattobearound28%.SoIthinkitwillbe27%,28%fortheyear.
JamieCook(Analyst-CreditSuisse):
Okay.Allright,thanks.Iwillgetbackinqueue.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Thanks.
Operator :
JeffVolshteynwithJPMorgan.
Jef f Volshteyn (Analyst-JPMorgan):
Hello,thanksfortakingmyquestion.Iwantedtofollowuponsomeoftheongoingprojects.Phil,yougavesomecommentaryonacoupleofthem,butifyoucouldexpandonhowaretheyperformingagainstyourexpectations?ParticularlyFreeport,Cameron,trainsnumber1through3,andthecrackerprojects.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
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Sure.Ithinkagain,althoughwefocussomeonthefabricationjobs,intheirentirety,theyarefairly--theyaremuchsmallerintermsofhowtheymovetheneedle,asyoucanimagine,butcertainlyimportant.Soit'salwaysimportanttoremember,asyoureadilypointout,thatwearean80%/20%company,where20%ofourbacklogdriveabout80%ofourprofitability.
Soobviously,howthesejobsareperforming,particularlyFreeportandCameron,areabsolutelycritical.Theyareprogressingwell.Wearerightonplanforthecompletiondates.
Ithinkitisnosecretthatwearelookingataboutthefirst,secondquarterof2019forFreeport.Itisperformingwellagainstallofitsmarginexpectations,aswellascashflows,aswellasCameron.Cameronisabitbehind,notoftheirschedulebutcertainlybehindFreeport.Andagain,itisforecastedtocompleteasplanned.
Sowe'rereallylookingatthealmostgettingclosetothehalfwaypointonthesetwoprojects.Andtheimportantthingisthat,weareintherevenuestreamswillplateauatsomefairlyhighlevels,andagain,outthroughabout2018andthenwewillstarttoseetailoffforthelastyear.Sothesenextcoupleyearsaregoingtobeveryimportantintermsofouroverallperformanceandtheproductionofrevenueandprofitsfromthosejobs;buttheyarebothtrackingverywell.
Ourthree,Ithinkwasthreepetrochemicaljobs,Oxychemisthefarthestadvancedandagain,Oxychemisprettyclosetobeingcomplete.Andagain,theperformanceonthathasbeenverygood.Rememberonthatjob,weprovidedtechnology,aswellastheEPC,aswellasallofthetanks,andthetankageonthatjob.Sothat'sbeenaverygoodexampleofhowwelayerinprofitabilityonthejob,andwe'reverypleasedwithhowthat's--aswellastheowners,verypleasedonhowthatjobhasprogressedandwewillfinishup.
WhenyoulookatShentechand[ExioleLote],andIapologizebecauseIalwaysmispronounceLote,thatjob,again,isjustgettingstartedasisShentech.They'reinthesingledigitsintermsofprogresssofar.Soit'salittlebitearlytoreport,butcertainly,thereisnothingearlyonthatwouldalarmusasfarastheirprogressortheirperformance.SoIwouldhavetosayallinall,onthe20%oftheprojectsthatarecontributing80%ofourearnings,wehavegotgoodthingstosayaboutvirtuallyallofthem.
Jef f Volshteyn (Analyst-JPMorgan):
Veryhelpful.AndthenjustfollowingupontheIngallsside,isitcompletelydoneoristhereasaleofsomepercentageofrevenue?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
No,IthinkIngallssideiscompleted,yes.
Jef f Volshteyn (Analyst-JPMorgan):
Okay.AcoupleofmorehousekeepingquestionsifImay.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Sure.
Jef f Volshteyn (Analyst-JPMorgan):
Thedeclineinbacklog,isitallburnourweretheresomereductionsinscopeorcancellations?
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
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Itwasallburn.Itwasjustsimplydoingthemathbetweensalesversusbookings,andthenyouhadalittlebitofanFXimpact.Buttherewerenosignificantscopereductions.
Jef f Volshteyn (Analyst-JPMorgan):
Andthelastquestion,arethereanyone-timecompsandone-timeitemsin2015thatwillmakecompsdifficultin2016andintheremainingquarters?
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Soone-timeeventsthatyou'resaying?
Jef f Volshteyn (Analyst-JPMorgan):
Correct.Excludingnuclear.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
No,notsignificant.Ithink,asIpointedoutinthefirstquarter,wedidhavetheonegoodguyin2015relatedtothat$8millionone-timegain.Butoutsideofthat,thereisnothingsignificantintheremainingquartersthatIrecallfromacompstandpoint.
Jef f Volshteyn (Analyst-JPMorgan):
Great.Thankyouverymuch.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Thankyou.
Operator :
AndyWhitmanwithRobertW.Baird.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Hello,Andy.
AndyWhitman (Analyst-RobertW.Baird&Co):
Soothershavetalkedaboutsomeofthecustomersaskingthecontractorstoslowdownthepacingofthework.Iwasjustwonderingwiththerevenuetrendsthatwesawinthefirstquarterifyouareseeinganyofthatfromyourcustomerbase?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
No,there'scertainlyissomecustomerinfluencegenerallyonprimarilyreimbursablework,andwedon'thavemuchofthat.Butthepaceoftheprojectsonfixedpriceworkisprettymuchdeterminedbythecontractandourobligationandus.Soitwouldbeunusualforthecustomertotrytoslowthoseprojectsdown.
PluswhenyoulookatallthoseLNGjobs,theyhavetake-or-paycontractsandthey'vegotaschedulethat'sabsolutelycritical,aswellasthepetrochemicalandotherworkwearedoing.Soweareseeing--I'mgoingtosayinmyclosingremarkssomecommentaryaroundhowwedoseethatimpact.BecauseIthinkgenerallyweseethis--generally,evenwe'renotcorrelateddirectlywiththegasbillonprices,generallythereisalotofpressurefrommanyIOCsandNOCsasfarasmarginsandcommitmentsand
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products.
SoIwouldhavetosay,ifthereiscustomerimpactintoday'senvironment,ithastodowithjust,again,adelayinmakingfinancialcommitments,andwehaveseenthat.However,wehavenotseenanycancellationsincurrentbacklogorinperspectivework,sothat'sgood.Itjustseemstobepushingoutalittlefarther.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
And,Andy,asPhilsaid,inafixedpriceenvironmentwherewe'revirtually70%ofthat,that'sourbacklog,theyreallydon'thavethatoptionBecauseasPhilsaid,they'vegotdeadlines,wehavegotdeadlinesinthecontract.Sowewouldhavetorenegotiatethosecontractsiftheyslowedusdownonanything.
AndyWhitman (Analyst-RobertW.Baird&Co):
Customershavetalkedalittlebitaboutobviouslyrevisitingthecapitalbudgetsaspartofthedelays.Whatareyouseeingintermsofthecompetitiveenvironmentonpriceandriskterms?Arethosechangingwiththesofteningenvironment,theslowingenvironment?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Sure.Ithinkitis.Itisgoingtobe--especiallythisyear,andwhilethereisinstabilityintheoilandgasprices,companieslikeoursaregoingtohavetobeverycarefulandveryselectiveintermsofwheretheyareworkingandwhatkindoftermstheyarewillingtoaccept.Andit'snotjustafixedpriceversusreimbursable,becausereimbursableissubjecttomargincompression,andafixedpriceisaverycompetitiveenvironmentoutthere,aswell.
SoIthinkallcompaniesinourindustry,aswellasothersuppliers,itaffectsusjustlikeitaffectsGE.Soallofthesuppliersarefeelingthispressure,andarebeingverycareful,Ithink,intermsofwhattheycommittogoingforward.
AndyWhitman (Analyst-RobertW.Baird&Co):
Thatishelpful.ThenIguess,onemorequestionhereonReficar.Youhavenothadachancetoaddressthisonepublicly,andIthinkitisprobablyworthcheckinginon.There'sobviouslyalawsuitpending,Idon'tknowifithasbeenfiledyet,Ithinkithas.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Yes.
AndyWhitman (Analyst-RobertW.Baird&Co):
It'sclaimingbillionsofoverrunsonareimbursablecontractforyouguys.Couldyoujusttalkaboutthebasisforthat?Howthatcouldgetresolvedorwhatcourtswouldberesolvedin,andwhatthecashimpactis,inotherwords,howmuchcashdotheyoweyouasoftoday?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Yes,wetalkedaboutthat.Wedidnotputitinourcommentary,becausequitehonestly,itisnotalawsuit.Itisaremedyinthecontractwhichcallsforthepartiestopursuearbitrationforanydisputes.
Theclaimsthattheyhaveagainstus,wedon'tseethattheyhaveanymerit.Butwenowdohavesomedisputesagainstthem,becausetheyhave,sinceourlastearningscall,withheldsomereceivablesandsomemoneyofoursthatwecertainlywillworktogetback.Sothisisgoingtobekindoflong-term.Ithink
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therhetorichastuneddownalittlebit,andwehavegotsomediscussions.
Sowedon'tseeanyrealimpactonus.Wewilljustseehowthatgoes.Butit'snotalawsuit,andIthinkwewilljustlettheprimarilysomeofthelawyersandthecouncilhavetodealwithit,butwedon'thaveanyimpactbuiltintoourplan.
AndyWhitman (Analyst-RobertW.Baird&Co):
Isthatsettledinthejurisdictionthatis…?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
ItwillbesettledintheUScourts,inUSjurisdiction.Itisinternationalrules,arbitrationrules,internationalrules,soitwillbeapanel.Itisareimbursablecontractandit'squitetransparent.
AndIthinkallofthepaymentsthathavebeenmadehavebeenauditedthroughouttheproject,andthere'sbeennodisputesbeforethen.AndIthinktheimportantthingis,isthattheplanitselfisoperatingverywell.Probablyaboveexpectationsorwheretheythoughtitwouldbeatthispoint,sothatisgood.
Weareveryhappyaboutthat.ButIthink,Isaidinthelastcall,thatIthinkthattooisfairlysymptomaticofbigIOCsandNOCstryingtorationalizetheircapitalplans.Andinthiscase,theplanisalreadybuilt,sotheeconomicshavechangedwiththeselowoilprices.
ButIcan'tdoanythingaboutthat,butIthinkwegavethemagoodplantandIthinktheyknowittoo.Sowe'regoingtoworkthroughthisissueandifanything--butremember,thearbitrationhassomeconfidentialityaspectstoit,soIcannotreallyreportonthatperse.Butshouldanythingmaterialcomeoutofthat,ofcourse,wewillcertainlymakeourinvestorsawareofit.
AndyWhitman (Analyst-RobertW.Baird&Co):
Thanks.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Okay.
Operator :
Wedohavetimeforonefinalquestion.YourfinalquestionwillcomefromthelineofJerryRevichwithGoldmanSachs.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Hi,Jerry.
JerryRevich (Analyst-GoldmanSachs):
Hey,goodafternoon.I'mwonderingifyoufolkscantalkaboutwhattheoutlookisforyournaturalgaspowerbusiness?What'sthecadenceofnewinquiriesthatyouareseeingtodayversus6or12monthsago,andwheredoyouthinkweareinthecycle?
Andalso,canyoucommentonthecompetitiveenvironment?Hasthatimprovedatall?Itlooksliketherehavebeenofcoupleofcostoverrunsforfolks,andI'mwonderingwhatthecompetitivelandscapeisliketodayversus6to12monthsago,aswell.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
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Ithinkwehaveseenalotofchangeinthatmarket.Ithinkwhenwefirstwentdownthatpathandwetalkedabouttheopportunitysetoutthere,welookedat,Idon'tknow,somethinglike70plantsthatwerebeingthoughtaboutwithvariousownersaroundthecountry.AndthisisalltheUSmarketthatweareaddressing.
Rightnow,wehavegotthreeunderconstruction.Theyareallgoingprettywell.Theseareallfixedpricejobs,theyareveryschedulesensitivetotheseprojects.Soweareworkingonthose.Weprobablyseemaybeapotentialofthreethisyear,wewouldhope.Sothatisthepacethatweseeonthese.
Itvariesintermsofownersandhowtheyviewontheirroleinbuyingmajorequipment,orwhattheywastopursueintermsofequipmentandchangesinschedule.Sotheyallvary,buttheyalltendtobearoundI'dsay(technicaldifficulty)million.Sowethinkwemightbesuccessfulincertainlytwoorthreenewawardsthisyear.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
AndJerry,Ithinkwestillremainverypositive.AndIthinkwhenyoutalktotheownersandyoulookatbaseloadcapacity,thecoalfleetcontinuestodiminish.Asweallknow,notlongago,coalaccountedforover40%ofourbaseloadcapacityintheUS.Today,thatnumberisprobablycloserto30%,andallprojectionshaveitgoingto20%overthenextfiveyears.
Sothatbaseloadhastogetreplacedwithsomething,andIthinkthecommonbeliefisthemajorityofthatreplacementisgoingtocomefromnaturalgaswiththebalancecomingfromalternativesources.Andalso,wedostillfeelthisgoingtobeanicemarketforusoverthenextfiveyearsorso.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Asfarasthecompetition,itisprettymuchthesamesubsetwetalkedabout,ownersarelookingforcompaniesthathaveexperienceincertaintypesofplants,incertaincapacities,andcertainexperiencewithvarioustypesofequipment.SothattendstobreakdowntowithusandFluerandZacharyandKeywittandthat'saboutit.Soit'sareasonablecompetitiveslateofcompanies.
Welikethebusiness.Wethinkwecandoitwell,andit'scertainlysomethingwe'regoingtowillpayalotofattentiontogoingforward.
JerryRevich (Analyst-GoldmanSachs):
Thankyou.Andlastquestion,Phil,youmentionedtherewasalotofworktodoonMozambiqueLNGbeforeanFIDcouldbereached.Hasthattimelineshiftedatall?Orhaveyourplansmovedaroundatall?
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
No,ourpreliminaryworkisfundedforthetimeupuntilFIDandthenbeyond.Andallthatreallymeansisthereisatremendousamountofplanningandscopingandworkingwithequipmentvendors,suppliers.ItisjusttheimportantthingabouttheEPCcontracttous,isitallowsusthentogetintothenextphasewhichisfirmingupthosecommitments.
Sothenwecansharpenprices,wecangetsomecommitmentsandjustgetrealprogressgoing.Rightnow,itisallpreliminarywork.
Sothatcangoonmuchfatherandwewillbefinewiththat,becauseeverythingismeaningfultothejob.Sowearedoingthingsthataremakingthejobmoveforward.Itisjustuntilwegettosomeoftherealimportantcommitments,wewillbeworkingpreliminarywork,andcloselywithAnadarko.Sothatisnotaconcern,butwecertainlywouldliketoseetheprojectmovingforwardandit'sgoingtobeanexciting
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partoftheworldtodevelopoverthenextseveralyears.
MikeT af f (EVPandCFO):
Yes,Jerry,ifyoujustlookatsomeofthethingsthatAnadarkoisworkingon,theyaremakinggoodprogress.ButitisgroundbreakingworktillyouthinkaboutnegotiatingallofthetaxcodesoverthereinMozambique.Theyjustdon'thavethelevelofdetail,obviously,thatwehavethere.Sothatisnew.
Theyareinventingnewtaxcodethere.Theyhavealsopubliclystatedthattheyhaveheadsofagreement,whicharebasicallyagreementsareinplaceforover80%oftheoff-take.Sotheyarebasicallytakingthoseheadsofagreementsaswespeaktodayandconvertingthoseintofirmcontracts.
ThosearethetworeallyimportanttasksthatAnadarkoneedstogetdonethisyear.Wethinktheyareonscheduletogetthosecompletebytheendoftheyear.ThenasPhilsaid,afterthatiscomplete,wewillfinalizeourEPCcontractwiththem.
ButwhetherthathappensinNovember,December,orJanuaryorFebruary,itreallydoesnotchangetheeconomicsofthejobforus.ItjustmaychangewhetherwehaveabookinginQ4orQ1.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Oncethejobgetstarted,Jerry,we'regoingtobetakingnamesforanambulancetripovertoEastAfrica.SoI'msurewecancountonyou,right?
JerryRevich (Analyst-GoldmanSachs):
IwillletJaimetakethatone.Thankyou,guys.Iappreciateit.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Allright.Takecare.
Operator :
Thankyou.IwillnowturnthecallbackovertoMr.Ashermanforclosingremarks.
PhilAsherman (PresidentandCEO):
Thankyou.Idohaveacoupleofbriefremarks.Aswehavebeenquicktopointoutinpreviouscalls,verylittleofournewworkhasbeencorrelatedtothedownwardpressureoncrudeprices.
Andwhilethatstillmaybetechnicallyaccuratefromaunitoperationstandpointrelativetothatcapitalinvestment,thecontinuinginstabilityintheindustryisabsolutelyimpactingthetimingoffinancingandcommitmentdecisions.Long-term,weseegreatopportunitydrivenbydemandinourprimaryendmarkets,andwe'reconfidentinourpositiontocapturemuchofthatwork.
Butquitehonestly,thislookslikeanotheryearofdifficultnavigationforcompaniesinourspacewhowanttobookqualitybacklog,whileworkinginanenvironmentofmarginpressureanddelayedcommitments.Andthisisaglobalphenomenon.
Butweareconfidentthatourintegratedbusinessmodelwhichprovidesdiversifiedearningspotential,ourdurablebacklogwhichispredominantlyatthestartofthecurve,nottheend.Ourselectivityofprojectsthatmeetourfiltersforcashflow,marginandrisk,andtrulytofocusonthingswedobetterthananyonewillnotonlysustainusthisyear,butwillcontinuetoimproveourabilitytoreturnvaluetoourshareholders.
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Sothankyouforyourtimeandinteresttoday.Thisconcludesourcall.
Operator :
Thankyouforparticipatingontoday'sconferencecall.
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