child outcomes for early intervention and preschool special education: the national picture
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Child Outcomes for Early Intervention and Preschool Special Education: The National Picture. Lynne Kahn ECO at FPG. Kathy Hebbeler ECO at SRI. Presented at OSEP Project Directors Meeting Washington, DC July, 2012. Overview. National numbers and the quality of the state data - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Presented at OSEP Project Directors Meeting
Washington, DCJuly, 2012
Child Outcomes for Early Intervention and Preschool Special
Education: The National Picture
Lynne KahnECO at FPG
Kathy HebbelerECO at SRI
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Overview
• National numbers and the quality of the state data
• The findings for 2010-11 • Findings for the last 3 years• State variation and data quality
2Early Childhood Outcomes Center
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3Early Childhood Outcomes Center
OSEP Reporting Requirements: Child Outcomes
• Positive social emotional skills (including positive social relationships)
• Acquisition and use of knowledge and skills (including early language/ communication [and early literacy])
• Use of appropriate behaviors to meet their needs
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If you have not seen it….
4Early Childhood Outcomes Center
www.the-eco-center.org
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State Approaches to Outcomes Data, 2010-11
Approach Part C (56 states/jurisdictions)
Preschool(59 states/jurisdictions)
COS* 7 pt. scale 43/56 (77%) 36/59 (61%)
One tool statewide 7/56 (13%) 9/59 (15%)
Publishers’ online analysis
3/56 (5%) 6/59 (10%)
Other 5/56 (9%) 8/59 (14%)
*Child Outcomes Summary Rating
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• States are in various stages with regard to building their child outcomes measurement systems
• Some phrased in• Some changed approaches
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Child Outcomes: What we know
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3 Methods Methods for Calculating National Estimates
1. States with the highest quality data weighted by child count to represent all states*
2. All states weighted by child count3. All states averaged (each state weighted
as 1)
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*The data we will be presenting for the national picture
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Identifying the States with Highly Questionable Data
Criteria for eliminating states:• Not reporting data on enough children• Odd patterns in the data• Review of method reported suggested the
data were of questionable quality
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Continued increase in the number of states included
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08-09 09-10 10-11
Pt. C 19 29 39
Part B Preschool 15 33 36
Number of States that Met Criteria for Inclusion in the National Analysis
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• And now the data….
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And now the data….
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OSEP Reporting Categories
Percentage of children who: a. Did not improve functioningb. Improved functioning, but not sufficient to move nearer
to functioning comparable to same-aged peers c. Improved functioning to a level nearer to same-aged
peers but did not reach itd. Improved functioning to reach a level comparable to
same-aged peerse. Maintained functioning at a level comparable to same-
aged peers
3 outcomes x 5 “measures” = 15 numbers
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Illustration of 5 Possible Paths
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56Age in Months
Sco
re
Maintained functioning comparable to age peersAchieved functioning comparable to age peersMoved nearer functioning comparable to age peersMade progress; no change in trajectoryDid not make progress
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13*Based on 39 states with highest quality data
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14*Based on 36 States with the highest quality data.
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The Summary Statements
1. Of those children who entered the program below age expectations in each outcome, the percent who substantially increased their rate of growth by the time they turned 3 [6] years of age or exited the program.
2. The percent of children who were functioning within age expectations in each outcome by the time they turned 3 [6] years of age or exited the program.
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16*Based on 39 states with highest quality data
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17*Based on 36 States with the highest quality data.
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Part C: Trends over Time
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Part C: Trends over Time
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Part B Preschool: Trends over Time
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Part B Preschool: Trends over Time
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Looking for Patterns
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Early Childhood Outcomes Center 23
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%
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Early Childhood Outcomes Center 25
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Building the national capacity to report and use child outcomes data is a
long term endeavor.
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Part C: States continue to report on more children
Total Number of Children States Included in the Child Outcomes Data
Number of children reported
Number of States and Jurisdictions
2007-08(N=56)
2008-09(N=56)
2009-10(N=54)
2010-11(N=54)
99 or less 13 6 5 4
100-499 25 16 9 10
500-999 6 13 10 7
1,000-1,999 9 11 10 13
2,000+ 3 10 20 22
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Early Childhood Outcomes Center 29
Total Number of Children Included in Progress Data
Number of children reported
Number of States and Jurisdictions
FFY 2007(N=58)
FFY 2008(N=58)
FFY 2009(N=58)
FFY 2010 (N=59)
10 or fewer 1 1 1 1
10-99 11 7 6 7
100–499 14 6 4 2
500-999 10 12 10 8
1000–1999 8 7 9 5
2000–2999 5 10 11 12
3000–4999 5 11 9 13
5000-8999 3 3 7 9
9000+ 1 1 1 2
Part B Preschool: States continue to report on more children
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Early Childhood Outcomes Center 30
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%
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Early Childhood Outcomes Center 32
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Conclusions
• The data show good outcomes for many children who attend Part C and Part B, Preschool.
• The data quality continues to get better.• The data will be a powerful tool for
program improvement when– The data are consistently good at the local level– States and local programs consistently use it.
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For more information….
www.the-eco-center.org
34Early Childhood Outcomes Center
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Identifying States with Quality Data
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Calculating Missing Data for Part C
Proxy for missing data =Number with data for C3/
Exiting Data (618)
37Early Childhood Outcomes Center
• Do not expect this number to be 100%
• ..but we don’t expect it to be 10% either
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Percentage of Exiters Reported by Part C Continues to Increase
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Calculating Missing Data for 619
Proxy for missing data =Number with data for B7/
Child count
39Early Childhood Outcomes Center
• Do not expect this number to be 100%
• ..but we don’t expect it to be 10% either
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Percentage of Child Count Reported by Part B Preschool Continues to Increase
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08-09 09-10 10-1102468
1012141618
Pt. B Preschool: % of Child Count Reported in Child Outcomes Data
<10%
10-20%
21-30%
31-40%
41-50%
>50%Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
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Many states reporting a low percentage for “a” but still have a few outliers.
Part CPart B
Preschool<2% 32 302 to <5% 11 115 to <7% 5 3
7 to <13% 0 5
28 to 49% 3 0
41Early Childhood Outcomes Center
Number of States by % Reported in “a,” 2010-11
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Reason Part C state was excludedNumber
excludedPercent(n=51)
State is sampling 3 6No outcomes data reported 0 0Reported outcomes data on less than 28% of reported exiters
3 6
Had at least one outcome with category a greater than 10% or category e greater than 65%
4 8
Reported outcomes data on less than 28% of reported exitersANDHad at least one outcome with category a greater than 10% or category e greater than 65%
1 2
Questionable data quality based on review of SPP/APR and knowledge gained through TA
1 2
States included in the analysis 39 76
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Reason Part B state was excludedNumber
excludedPercent (n=51)
State is sampling 4 8No outcomes data reported 1 2Reported outcomes data on less than 12% of child count 2 4
Had at least one outcome with category a greater than 10% or category e greater than 65% 4 8
Reported outcomes data on less than 12% of child countANDHad at least one outcome with category a greater than 10% or category e greater than 65%
0 0
Questionable data quality based on review of SPP/APR and knowledge gained through TA 2 4
No child count data available 1 2Reported Summary statements but no progress categories 1 2
States included in the analysis 36 71
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Producing National Estimates Using the States with the Highest Quality Data
1. Divide the states into those with large, medium, and small child counts.
2. Identify the states that appear to have the best data.
3. Weight by child count and calculate the overall OSEP percentages using the “best data” states in each category.
4. Use the OSEP percents and total child count for each category to get the national estimates.
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