children names simulations and facts - agh university of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · children names...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Children names – simulations and facts
The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational Social Science, Cologne, July 10-13, 2017
Krzysztof Kułakowski and Małgorzata J. Krawczyk
Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science AGH University of Science and Technology Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Kraków, Poland
![Page 2: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
outline
1. The American data * 2. The Simmel effect and some stylized facts 3. Three big regions in the U.S. 4. Cult of personality - how it ended 5. Conclusions
* https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/babynames/limits.html
![Page 3: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1.The data: network of correlations
i,j – name
x(i,t,a) a,b – state
t =1910,…,2011
Correlations ij of the state profiles of names’ popularity:
3
( , , )( , , )
( , , )b
x i t ay i t a
x i t b
i, j =1, 100
i, j =1,…,100
![Page 4: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
communities - calculations
• The matrix elements
• The time evolution*
gdzie
where is a free parameter to maximalize Q ** :
4
1
2
ab
abw
( ) ( )ab
ab ac cb
c
dwG w w w
dt
( ) ( ) (1 )G x x x
1( , )a b
ab
ab
k kQ w a b
m m
a ac
c
k w a
a
m k
* M. J. Krawczyk, PRE 77 (2008) 065701 ** M. E. J. Newman, M. Girvan, PRE 69 (2004) 026113
**
![Page 5: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
3. Three big regions in the U.S.
![Page 6: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
![Page 7: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
www.citylab.com/politics/2012/04/invisible-borders-define-american-culture/1839/
![Page 8: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
4. Cult of personality
![Page 9: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Grover Cleveland, 1885-89, 1893-97 N
um
ber
of
nam
esa
kes
the office was taken
![Page 10: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Woodrow Wilson, 1913-21
voting rights for women
Nu
mb
er o
f n
ame
sake
s
![Page 11: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1933-45
Gallup founded
Nu
mb
er o
f n
ame
sake
s
![Page 12: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Lyndon B. Johnson, 1963-69
campaign for the „Great Society”
Nu
mb
er o
f n
ame
sake
s
![Page 13: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Ronald Reagan, 1981-89 N
um
ber
of
nam
esa
kes
![Page 14: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
„Love Me Tender”
Elvis Presley
death
Nu
mb
er o
f n
ame
sake
s
![Page 15: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
How to measure it? An example: LBJ
1958; 162 1959; 192 1960; 246 1961; 207 1962; 148 1963; 177 1964; 512
The data {yi}:
6.4166236
192512
2364/)3(
1664/)3(
192
512}512,177,148max{
6575.0
3225.0
45.0
c
zzq
zzq
zq
y148 162 177 192 207 246 512
The ordered data {zi}:
![Page 16: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The results - presidents
Calvin Coolidge
Johnson
Th. Roosevelt
Bill
the names after www.whitehouse.gov/1600/Presidents
C
![Page 17: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The results – selected celebrities
Selena (death)
Jacqueline
Shirley
Linda (song) Michelle (song)
Elvis (death)
Dustin
Whitney
Leonardo
Britney
Malia C
![Page 18: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
5. Conclusions
1. The simulations reproduce: - the reduction of names’ lifetime with the number
of used names - the asymmetry of rise and fall of fashion 2. The results are a good match for the administrative
regions of the U.S.
3. A simple index shows that the cult of personality of American presidents ended at the term of Nixon
![Page 19: Children names simulations and facts - AGH University of ...kulakowski/koln.pdf · Children names – simulations and facts The 3rd Annual International Conference on Computational](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042301/5ecc45a5e2e77955c85a5cf8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Thanks to Dietrich Stauffer, Cologne University, the Honorary Member of the Complex System Group at the AGH UST in Cracow,
for years of cooperation and help.
* M. J. Krawczyk, A. Dydejczyk and K. K., The Simmel effect and babies’ names, Physica A 395 (2014) 384. * M. Pomorski, M. J. Krawczyk, K. K., J. Kwapień and M. Ausloos, Inferring cultural regions from correlation networks of given names, Physica A 445 (2016) 169. * K.K., P. Kulczycki, K. Misztal, A. Dydejczyk, P. Gronek, M. J. Krawczyk, Naming boys after presidents in U.S. in 20th century, Acta Phys. Pol. A 129 (2016) 1038.
Thank you for attention