china 2016: overview of public opinion about science with a special focus on genetic engineering and...
TRANSCRIPT
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U.S. and Global Public Opinion on Science and Technology Issues: Key Results from SEI 2016
John C. BesleyAssociate Professor and Ellis N . Brandt ChairCollege of Communication Arts and Sciences
Views are my own and not necessarily those the National Science Foundation
or the National Science Board
(+ some bonus material for genetic engineering and nanotechnology )
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A bit of background
• Every two years• By the U.S. National Science Foundation
(NSF)/National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) on behalf of the National Science Board (NSB)
• Sent to Congress and the White House• Chapter 7 focuses on public opinion
• Core data collected through General Social Survey (n = 1,500+, F2F)
• Supplemented by review of other sources
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“Very Interested”
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International Comparison:Eurobarometer 2010
Very interested …USA, 2010: 41%EU, 2010: 30% (11%-55%)
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Factual Knowledge Comparisons
Not included in scale used to track trends …
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Section 2: Factual Knowledge Trends
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General Attitudes, Better/Worse
SEI Moves to GSS
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General Attitudes, Better/Worse
World Values Survey (2010-2014)
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General Attitudes, “More Opportunities”
1985 1992 1995 1997 1999 2001 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Because of S&T, there will be more opportunities for the next generation: 1985–2014
Percent
Agree or strongly agree
Disagree or strongly disagree
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International Comparison:Eurobarometer 2010
Agree ‘more opportunities …’USA, 2010: 91%EU, 2010: 75% (61%-89%)
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Section 3: General Attitudes, Funding
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General Attitudes, “Great Deal of Confidence”
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A question:To what degree are general attitudes about science consistent with attitudes about specific scientific issues(e.g., nuclear, genetic engineering, nanotechnology)?
General attitudes General support
Specific attitudesGeneral support
General attitudes Specific support
Specific attitudesSpecific support
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Specific Attitudes: Environmental Issues
As support for science has stayed stable or improved, environmental attitudes have edged down
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Specific Attitudes: Nuclear Energy
2016
Even as support for science has stayed stable or improved, positive attitudes about nuclear energy have edged down
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering (% positive)
Limited recent data but … About a 1/3 of Americans seem to think genetically engineered food is safe …
Pew
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20130
102030405060708090
100
Pew (basically or generally safe) ABC news (safe) Gallup (health hazard, no)Gallup (support) Harris Poll (benefits > risks) CBS/NYT (buy)IFIC (Industry Sponsored)
NSF
IFIC
Gallup
Some decrease in positive attitudes over time(seems to be poll specific)
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering (Pew)
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering (Pew)
Who most likes GE food?• Traditional power groups
(i.e., white men in the U.S.)• The educated …• Political conservatives (?),• Those who think scientists
understand the topic most support GE food
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering (Pew)
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering (Pew)
Who most likes GE food 2.0?• Ideology not
significant in later analysis (significant for other subjects)
• Education/Knowledge (?)
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering
Kahan, D. M. (2015). Climate-science communication and the measurement problem. Political Psychology, 36, 1-43. doi:10.1111/pops.12244
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering
Who most likes GE food 3.0?• New data
suggests limited connection between ideology and GE food risk views(y axis: risk perceptions; x axis: ideology Kahan, D. M. (2015). Climate-science communication and the
measurement problem. Political Psychology, 36, 1-43. doi:10.1111/pops.12244
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering My initial model for GE support (2005)
Key variables• Trust
(with ceiling effects)
• Views about scientists
• Demographics and media use minor predictors of GE support
Besley, J. C., & Shanahan, J. (2005). Media attention and exposure in relation to support for agricultural biotechnology. Science Communication, 26(4), 347-367. doi:10.1177/1075547005275443
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering
My research shifted to “psychology of fairness
Key variables:• Fair distribution of
risk/benefits• Fair access to
information• Education not sig. (?)• Awareness was (?)
McComas, K. A., Besley, J. C., & Yang, Z. (2008). Risky business: The perceived justice of local scientists and community support for their research. Risk Analysis, 28(6), 1539-1552. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01129.x
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering
Key variables:• Risks & benefits• Distribution of
risk/benefits• Process fairness• Context (specific
vs. non-specific threat)
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering
Townsend, E. (2006). Affective influences on risk perceptions of, and attitudes toward, genetically modified food. Journal of Risk Research, 9(2), 125-139.
• Some evidence of that ‘dread’, ‘ethics,’ and worry are key drivers of genetic engineering risk perceptions
• Dread may be associated with ‘involuntary’ exposure
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering
Townsend, E., Clarke, D. D., & Travis, B. (2004). Effects of context and feelings on perceptions of genetically modified food. Risk Analysis, 24, 1369-1384.
Affect/Emotion• Dread, risk,
ethics, disgust key motivators of willingness to purchase GE food
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering • Benefits perceptions increasing
• GE plants (vs. animals) seen most favorably• US/Asia similar on most measures
(but US sees more benefits)
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Summary of key lessons from GE studies …• Demographics matter a little• Knowledge matters a little• What really matters is how people see
scientists and decision-making processes• Emotions/affect also likely key
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Specific Attitudes: Nanotechnology
2006 (n = 1,864) 2008 (n = 1,505) 2010 (n = 963)0
102030405060708090
100
Benefits will outweigh harmful results Benefits will be about equal to harmful results
Harmful results will outweigh benefits Don’t know
Benefits greater
Harms greater
Not sure …
• NSF/GSS last surveyed on nanotech from 2006-2010
• Will poll again in 2016
• About 4/10 saw more benefits• Only 1/10 saw more harms
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Specific Attitudes: Nanotechnology
Many/most say they know little about nanotech
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Specific Attitudes: Nanotechnology
Most see more benefits than risks, or are not sure
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Specific Attitudes: Nanotechnology
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Specific Attitudes: Nanotechnology
Some relationship between familiarity and support
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Specific Attitudes: Nanotechnology
Trust, familiarity, education, and gender most consistent nanotech attitude predictors
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Specific Attitudes: Genetic Engineering
Who most likes nanotech …• Like GE, limited
connection between ideology and nanotech views
Kahan, D. M. (2015). Climate-science communication and the measurement problem. Political Psychology, 36, 1-43. doi:10.1111/pops.12244
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Specific Attitudes: Nanotechnology
McComas, K. A., Besley, J. C., & Yang, Z. (2008). Risky business: The perceived justice of local scientists and community support for their research. Risk Analysis, 28(6), 1539-1552. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01129.x
My own works also show …• Familiarity, and
interpersonal fairness perceptions are associated with less nanotech concern, similar to GE concern
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Summary of key lessons from nanotechnology studies …• Demographics matter a little• Knowledge matters a little• What really matters is how people
see scientists and decision-making processes
(Note: These are the same as what I said for genetic engineering)
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Overall Conclusions?• Wish we had more international data• Wish we had more issue-specific data• But, Americans (and others, too) …
• … are somewhat interested in science• … know a bit about science• … think science is pretty great
(they like scientists too)• … Trust/fairness perceptions
drive most issue specific attitudesDon’t forget: Views are my own and not necessarily those the National Science Foundation
or the National Science Board
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Editorial comment …
Most people like scientists but that can change. We need to earn our respect through positive engagement with our communities.